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Good grief, there is no mythical .07 buyout again.
ROFL!!!!!
The Warrents on the 7 Cent buyout structure would fully dilute into the 660+ Million share range for IHCH.
That brings the buyout price at 7 cents in-line with recent public disclosure of business valuation of $23 Million (at best) or about 2x value for buyout.
The 405 Million warrants were issued in April 2010 to Dr. Chaudhuri (KPC Group) prior to his registration with SEC to buyout the remaining OS (see his 13-D). The warrants were issued as part of the bankruptcy debt buyout of $81 Million (for $70 Million) by Chaudhuri and Silver Point. Silver Point bankrolled the deal (they are a very big hedge fund and watch the shorting on this run, per prior posted advise). Chaudhuri traded 96 Million of the 405 Million warrants to Silver Point for 15% interest in the debt.
The warrants held by Chaudhuri are broken into 170M personal and 139M held by KPC Resolution. At 7 cents, the 139M could operate as a residual debt exchange for final buyout (IMO) or about $9.73 Million. That would be residual debt of the partners being bought-out. In that instance, the debt is apportioned according to ownership positions of the partners and buyout payment operates as debt resolution against formula.
Here's the KPC Group website already showing the hospitals he owns and includes the IHCH group that he majority ownes, so please don't suggest he doesn't intend to close on the deal:
http://www.thekpcgroup.com/kpc.html
Note, he added Victorville to the list last fall on completing that bankruptcy buyout.
Couple of points....
1. The quarter topline reflects two years of catch-up QAF money for two (CA) fiscal years, July 2011 through June 2013. So, similar to summer of 2011, this is a big one-time windfall of old, overdue, QAF money.
2. Only the FY2012 (ending June 2012) was paid (cash on the books). They're waiting on the final approval for fee collection and payment by CMS for the FY2013 money. See the cashflow sheet for the fees due and payment coming. On standby for that approval. I'm crunching numbers now, but that is possibly sufficient additional cash to trigger buyout (IMO). The iHub board could be blindsided by payment approval, as they have up to 10 business days to put on the State website. However, Chaudhuri will know the minute the approval hits. Obviously, they (and others) are tied into the system. All I have at this point is a rumor on the situation, and I don't like repeating rumors.
3. The registered buyout is an insider, partner buyout with the goal of nearly debt free business with primary target to payoff the Silver Point real estate loan (see balance sheet for the big $45+ Million loan). Silver Point is the hedge that's holding 96 Million of those warrants obtained at between 5 and 6.125 cents and short dumping (IMO) into runs to make money the way any hedge makes money. Resolving the big real estate loan that's collateralized against the partner's real estate interest (the land and buildings) will help the partners (back to Tenet buyout days in 2005) make better money on the real estate lease and give Chaudhuri a better position to take the business. This is the first opportunity since the bankruptcy debt buyout to reach goal, i.e. sufficient cash on the books to close the deal. This is why closure was waiting for cash to complete the deal (IMO).
4. QAF radically changes in the new Bill and operates in the new Obamacare paradigm to re-prioritize how QAF money is spent with hospitals at #4 priority on the current list (current unpassed Bill). Read the bill! Obamacare operates around insurance, e.g. the Children's Healthcare Insurance Program (CHIP) in California....buying insurance for kids. #2 on the list is coverage for kids. Disproportionate Share is also phased-out for hospitals starting in 2014. The Bill is for the two year transition period of CY2014-15. The saftey-net programs (back-end money in old paradigm) phase-out to a fully-insured coverage system over the next two years. In simple terms, as money moves to insured patient coverage and payment at the front, it phases-out at the back in these large lump payments.
5. The problem with the new paradigm is whether hospitals will get as much money as they did with the old system, especially those that were heavy in the disproportionate share monies. Also, many hospitals have lower admissions and bed occupancy rates due to the rules and standards for admissions. Medicare cuts are also hurting. The major admissions drop at IHCH since 2008 (now over 25% in run rate) is a concern going into a new paradigm that is primarily dependent on admissions with insured patients and their ability to pay uncovered/deductible costs.
Thank you for the reply. Even considering that, I would think the forward PE would be much higher. I guess we just need to be more patient. If they keep stacking quarter after quarter like this, the stock price will take care of itself.
Apparently Ian Cassel has sent out a tweet to the effect that fully diluted EPS is more like $.07 or $.08 because the share count is about 600,000 shares and not the 255,000 reported in 10-Q.
I don't know the company well enough to know what he is talking about. Perhaps someone who follows this board knows what the issue is.
I agree with you I think integrated healthcare should have a multiple of at least 10 times. That be the case we would be trading at $2.50 right now. And this was on a quarterly earnings imagine what it would be like on an annual if we can keep up some additional earnings-per-share.
Great call Charles........just wish you would have predicted 75 cents instead of 25 cents. lolol
Just can't understand why we aren't trading much higher. Don't we deserve a forward pe greater than .25? I mean, a forward pe of 1 gets us to .72 based on quarterly earnings of 18 cents.
IHCH now has positive shareholders equity.
Ingegrated Healthcare Holdings, INC (IHCH) reports EPS of $0.18 for the QUARTER!!!
IHCH also has improved the Balance Sheet significantly. From $3.5Million Cash a year ago to $38 Million Cash at the end of 1Q 2013.
All of the financial ratios for IHCH have improved significantly!
IHCH undervalued significantly IMO.
It's only been 18 minutes. :)
A bunch of offers stacked up just under $0.25. CSTI at .243, ETRF at .244, CANT at .245, NITE at ..2488, ATDF at .2495....Need some more Buying pressure to knock those guys out of their offers so that IHCH can break through to Quarter $ land.
WooHoo...My long-forecasted target on Integrated Healthcare Holdings, Inc of $0.25 is about to be realized. Last trade was $0.249 in IHCH.
What an Awesome Quarter for $IHCH as they knocked the ball completely out of the park!!
WOW, guess it will follow thru. Have not seen these prices in years.
nice price action and volume. Let's hope there is a follow thru.
The coverage of QAF has been continuous. By that I mean it has covered the time from October 2009 to present. The current legislation is through December 31, 2013 but there is a new one that will cover the period from January 1, 2014 though December 31, 2015. The QAF generates additional revenue for the state of California as it allows them to get additional revenue from the US government. It is an urgent bill for the senate and the last unofficial vote was unanimously for the bill. IMO, it is highly likely that the new bill will pass.
http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/13-14/bill/sen/sb_0201-0250/sb_239_vote_20130528_0235PM_sen_floor.html
re IHCH
Mike:
How frequently do these "rounds" occur. That is, in your opinion how lumpy are these earnings.
Thanks much.
Steve
IMO the stock is going very green today. The only question is how much.
Any guesses if the stock goes green today? There was/is a large road block at .16
The next round of QAF is making its way through the legislative process. They worked on it yesterday and are having a hearing on it on the 20th.
http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/13-14/bill/sen/sb_0201-0250/sb_239_bill_20130814_status.html
WOW - IHCH earned 18 cents a share for the QUARTER and the stock is trading at 16 cents??? Something appears to be out of whack here considering this is not a Chinese company....
anyone know if that large ask of 100k is still sitting at .16?
me too. Actually bought more yesterday with cash I made on SGMO.
Awfully quite out there ladies and gents. The calm before the storm?
Good grief....
lol
Isn't that typical of Pink?
It's because most don't do the math or follow stocks for years or ask questions at State and Federal levels around legislation or any other in-depth DD. It's the normal in Pink to get buyers to only focus on something that suggests a higher valuation without looking at the implications or ignoring the big picture.
Ask yourself why a business with historic valuation around the $22M - $24M market value in IHCH filing (at closure with Tenet) and recently PUBLICLY disclosed at a press conference was worth only $23M AT BEST, is trading well above that value at fully diluted over $100M? I don't see any justification for that valuation.
All the big chunks of QAF money through the end of 2013 (from prior legislation) are operating to clear the debt which brings value back to $23M (IMO). If you think OS, that's about 9 cents. If you think fully diluted, that's about 3.5 cent or 2x value at 7 cents for a buyout. Getting the collateralized real estate loan off the books is a big plus for the partners, as they can get better money off the real estate partnership on the leases. Currently, the loan reduces lease payments. That's why the deal works well in formula to get the loan reduced and the business back to low or debt-free. The partners what to make good money off the real estate and Chaudhuri wants to take the business in good financial condition (IMO). This is the first opportunity to approach that goal since the bankruptcy debt buyout in Spring 2010.
My past advise was swing trading between the 3 cent (or lower/higher at risk) and 7 cent (or above) range against Chaudhuri's last purchase of shares at 3 cents and the registered buyout of outstanding shares in his SEC 13-D. I've never change my advise over 3 years around the structured model of insider buyout and debt resolution formula.
So what you are saying is the market is wrong?
I poked CANT with a stick. Why? I wanted to see how they would react, i.e. what would the short seller do? They immediately dropped IHCH Bid to .071 to cover the short sales and have stuck there since my post.
Guess what? That's sitting right on top of the 7 cent buyout. I did it to see if they would drop back all the way to .06, where they originally were covering before the 10-K announcement and the revelation of initial FY2012 Managed Care approval for $60M. I wanted to see if Chaudhuri was firm on the 7 cents offer to his partners. Note, I've never stated they would exercise their warrants to sell above .07. Like any hedge (if it is them), they are using the warrants as margin for short selling. I did mention that folks should watch the FINRA REG SHO for daily shorting a few months back. Have they moved to using other Market Makers? Probably.... and (IMO) the usual suspect is on the play. Why would anyone want to buy into a hedge's short selling on pump?
I'm not wrong about the valuation and no one has offered any justification for market cap above the publicly stated value of $23 Million of the business at best (no debt). I'm the only poster that has offered formula around the SEC registered buyout and how 7 cents works to resolve debt at 2x value. If it weren't a buyout play with dilutive warrants, I'd be the first person to suggest 9 cents value with potential debt resolution. However, the problems with substantial admissions decline might make even that number risky (IMO).
With the new QAF Bill dropping hospital payments to the bottom of a new priority scheme, there is now direct evidence of low to no QAF money in 2014 and beyond. Read the Bill folks. The paradigm change with Obamacare and the State buying Insurance for kids and other new Medicaid expanded eligible participants is where the money will be primarily spent by the State. The hospitals drop to lowest priority in the Bill. Read the Bill. QAF is a Medicaid matching funds program for the State to get money from the Feds. How they spend the money is CHANGING in 2014, i.e. money is redirected to Obamacare priorities.
(IMO) There is opportunity to close the buyout deal with the FY2012 Managed Care payment coming and closure might coincide with payment date (sufficient cash on the books).
Do I hear 50 cents?
TRUE, If they keep retiring debt, IHCH could get much higher than twenty-five cents.
With another round of QAF in the works I think it will break a quarter.
LOL, how true that is (NOT!!) Still waiting for my Quarter ($0.25) but that target may be too low for IHCH.
IHCH Closed at $.16 today, that looks like a good sign.
Whew! Glad I didn't have to give up 100 to 1 odds. I can't afford that shit.
Rawnoc Member Level Wednesday, August 15, 2012 3:02:22 PM
Re: Knowledge is King post# 2139 Post # of 2410
I'll give you 100 to 1 odds nobody is dumb enough to exercise any warrants and flip for a .02 gain on a stock that's going to get multitudes higher per share in cash.
You can "LOL" all you want, but you know damn well there are ZERO warrants being exercised and sold at this or anywhere near this price.
You're trying to make up for your failed "buyout at .07" conspiracy, and this crackpot theory is failing just as bad. There will be no warrant selling at .09. There will be no buyout at .07. And you know it. Just admit it, and we can move on.
Ill give you 8 cents for yours. LOL.
7 cent buyout lol lol lol lol lol
There she blows! .16 cents
IHCH just traded at $0.16...a bit of a wall there but I think we get through it on our way to $0.25!
Nice IHCH action so far today. Good volume.
Bust through .15 today....I think so.
More importantly, I'm anxious to see what happens when we do. It seems very few people follow this stock, will be fun to watch once IHCH gets "discovered". I see very little chatter on this stock and look how few and far between the posts are on this board.
Will today be the day we bust through .15? Something tells me there may be a suitor or two.....JMHO.
Looks like it starting to pick up now, ask at .1475 with decent volume.
The quiet before the storm?
Yeh, I was a buyer this morning. I recently had sold all my shares a bit higher but decided to get my feet wet again.
IHCH definitely having a nice day. Would love to see us break through that $0.15 overhang. Looks like a pretty solid wall there but if we can get through it (and I am sure we will eventually) this will continue the move up. I see $0.25 in the next few weeks. Maybe more based upon your EPS projections.
Nice job wit IHCH. I wish I would have held on until others discovered that these QAF payments aren't going away.
IHCH - Another round of QAF is winding its way through the CA legislature. This round is proposed to be from 01/01/2014 through 12/30/2015. Below is some info:
------------------------------------------------------------
SB 239: Assemblymember Roger Hernandez (D-West Covina)
Medi-Cal: Hospital Quality Assurance Fee
Summary (as Amended 4/17/2013): This bill enacts the Private Hospital Quality Assurance Fee Act of 2014, which imposes, subject to federal approval, a hospital quality assurance fee (QAF) as specified, on certain general acute care hospitals from January 1, 2014, through December 30, 2015, with the resulting revenue to be deposited into the Hospital Quality Assurance Revenue Fund. Enacts the Medi-Cal Hospital Reimbursement Improvement Act of 2014, which requires, subject to federal approval, supplemental payments to be made to private hospitals for certain services and increased capitation payments to be made to Medi-Cal managed care plans for hospital services, as specified.
Last Action Date: 6/14/2013
Action Taken: Referred to Assembly Committee on Health.
http://www.ccuih.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=120:medi-cal-issues&catid=9:california-legislation-tracker&Itemid=19
-------------------------------------------------
Here is a link to the legislative site:
http://leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_239&sess=CUR&house=B&author=hernandez
I'm expecting EPS of $0.16/basic share and $0.09/diluted share in the June quarter.
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Western Medical Center Anaheim
IHCS News & Press Releases IHHI Announces Completion of Re-Financing Click below to read the full press release! http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071019/laf047.html?.v=101 IHHI Blazes and Independent Path for Its Board Click below to read the full press release! http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070921/laf061.html?.v=20 Two IHHI Hospitals Receive Marks of Excellence Click below to read the article from The Orange County Register! http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/healthscience/homepage/article_1314338.php IHHI's Western Medical Center Santa Ana Signs Agreement with flexSCAN Click below to read the press release! http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060921/105592.html Western Medical Center Santa Ana's Neurosurgical Services featured in the September 2006 issue of Smart Business Magazine Chapman Medical Center's Center for Heartburn and Swallowing featured in the August 2006 issue of Smart Business Magazine Share Structure: IHCH Confirmed Share Structure A/S: 400,000,000 O/S: 255,307,262 Restricted: 235,558,871 FLOAT: 19,748,391 !!!!
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