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Independent Nickel C (INI)
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Independent Nickel C (INI)
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TSE:INI Detailed Quote
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Independent Nickel C (TSE:INI)
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Independent Nickel C (TSE:INI)
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Independent Nickel C (TSE:INI)
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Independent Nickel C (TSE:INI)
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LME Nickel stocks at their highest since 1995
2009-06-08 12:10:00
No other base metal is in such a poor state fundamentally, besides perhaps aluminium, yet nickel has seen its price rise by as much as 39% since 1st April, to more than $14,000/t by 12th May; it has since corrected with the rest of the complex to $12,350/t as at 15th May, says a research report from Fortis Metals Monthly.
In our view, the high nickel price stands as testimony to the elevated sense of optimism that has seen base metals stage
remarkable rallies - with occasional corrections - over the past few months. It also serves as a warning as to what must come in the following few months in order to balance supply with demand, and that is price correction.
LME nickel stocks are at their highest since 1995 when the three-month price averaged $8,360/t. Today the price is almost $6,000t higher, although back in 1995 Chinese consumption was insignificant, while today China is the world's top consumer nation.
However, we are in the midst of the worst global recession in decades and the contraction in US and European consumption is likely to more than offset any growth in Chinese demand. In nickel’s favour is the volume of production that has been cut in 2009.
We estimate more than 310,000t of mined nickel has been removed in 2009 – the most as a proportion of total production in 2008 than any other base metal; while new supply that was previously scheduled to come online in 2009 will likely be delayed for the most part. We therefore expect mined nickel production to decline almost 9% in 2009, while demand falls by almost 10%, resulting in a surplus of 70,000t.
It may be more, if demand stays as low as it has so far this year, or it may decline should miners make further cuts and closures.
According to Acerinox, the world's largest stainless steel producer (stainless steel accounts for about two-thirds of nickel offtake), demand should recover in Q3 2009, but in our view it is not likely to recover until early 2010.
Nickel Outlook
The nickel price has overshot after tracking the rise in the copper price. There is no fundamental reason for this besides the misleading rise in Chinese refined nickel imports, which in our view do no more than highlight the premium between Chinese nickel prices and the LME price, and also perhaps some restocking. We are therefore sticking with the view that the price must come down.
This is even more likely given that we are heading into the traditionally quiet summer months. Short-term LME three-month price: $11,250/t-$14,500/t.
China Stainless Steel Production Boosts Nickel, Macquarie Says
By Bloomberg News
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- China’s increased nickel imports, boosted by expanding stainless steel output and a price gap between the domestic and overseas markets, have driven a rally in London prices, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
China’s largest stainless steel producers operated at “historically high” capacity usage rates of more than 95 percent in May, while imports surged in the second quarter as domestic nickel traded at a premium to the London Metal Exchange, Macquarie analysts led by Jim Lennon said in a report.
Nickel gained 20 percent over the past two weeks to more than $6 a pound on the LME, the report said. China’s refined nickel imports rose 16 percent in the first four months compared with a year earlier to 53,535 metric tons, according to customs data cited in the report. The metal is used to rustproof steel.
The price rally has prompted the restart of nickel pig iron production in China, especially in the northern and western parts of the country, the report said. The pig iron, processed from low-grade ore, is a cheaper alternative to refined metal.
“We hear that around 15 to 20 nickel pig iron producers have brought back production capacity since mid-May with most of them producing pig iron with 10 percent plus of nickel content using electric arc furnaces,” said the report e-mailed June 6.
Stainless steel output from China, the world’s largest producer, may stay level with last year’s 6.9 million tons, after declining in 2008, Xu Aidong, analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., said on May 20.
Nickel for delivery in three-months on the LME fell 3.1 percent to $14,150 a ton ($6.42 a pound) at 3:43 p.m. Singapore time.
--Feiwen Rong, Richard Dobson. Editors: Wendy Pugh, Indranil Ghosh
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Feiwen Rong in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7051 or frong2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 8, 2009 04:06 EDT
Nickel Falls Third Day in London, Weighed on by Demand Outlook
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel declined for a third day in London on expectations demand from stainless-steel makers will continue to slide, weighing on prices.
Nickel fell 4.9 percent in the past three days. Stainless- steel output in Europe will probably drop by about 19 percent this year, while global demand may sink as much as 40 percent, Michael Wright, president of the Bureau of International Recycling’s Stainless and Alloy Board, said on May 25.
“The non-China world of stainless steel is still fairly weak,” Societe Generale analyst David Wilson said today by phone. Governments’ efforts to revive the construction industry won’t help stainless makers as much as producers of the regular steel used in buildings and infrastructure, he said.
Nickel for three-month delivery fell $105, or 0.7 percent, to $14,100 a ton by 10:23 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange.
Commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell the most in six weeks yesterday after dollar gains. Raw materials are sometimes used to hedge against weakness in the currency. Declines extended today in industrial metals, cocoa and sugar.
Copper pared earlier losses today after a daily LME stockpiles report showed a 1.1 percent decline, trimming the metal’s inventory to 303,200 tons, the lowest since Dec. 11. The contract fell $4, or 0.1 percent, to $4,916, after declining as much as 1 percent.
Tin’s lending fee for next day delivery jumped to as much as $20 a ton per day, the highest since April 28, indicating low availability, after a discount of $1.25 yesterday. Between 50 percent and 79 percent of deliverable tin in LME-monitored warehouses are held by one unnamed firm as of June 1, the exchange’s data show.
Tin lost $135 at $14,365 a ton. Stockpiles of the metal tracked by the LME jumped 4.9 percent to 15,490 tons, the highest since Aug. 28, 2007.
Among other LME metals, aluminum gained $8 to $1,492 a ton, lead dropped $5, or 0.3 percent, to $1,605 and zinc slipped $2 to $1,533 a ton.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 4, 2009 05:43 EDT
Global nickel consumption growing by 3.1%
Commodity Online
Nickel world market is characterized by rising demand and constrained supply. More than 54% if world total supply comes from only five companies. Global nickel consumption is growing by an average 3.1 per cent a year.
Nickel finds its usage in various industries such as engineering, electrical and electronics, infrastructure, automobile and automobile components, packaging, Batteries etc.
Among base metals Nickel is the most volatile owing to its strong demand and tight supply.
Nickel demand is derived demand based on the growth of different industrial sector thus exhibits high volatility.
About 65 per cent of nickel is used in manufacture of stainless steels, and 20 per cent in other steel and non-ferrous including "super" alloys, often for highly specialized industrial, aerospace and military applications.
Supply and Demand
Major producers of Nickel are Russia, followed by Australia, Canada, New Caledonia and Indonesia, which represents over 65% of total world production.
World primary nickel consumption is about 1 million tons. Consumption centers are Japan 2 lakh tons and European Union 3.74 lakh tons.
Rapid expansion of global stainless steel production is fuelling demand for primary nickel.
Important World Nickel Markets
London Metal Exchange.
Indian Nickel Market
Nickel market in India is of total import dependent.
India imports around 30,000 tons of Nickel.
Import duty on Nickel is 15%.
With growth in the stainless steel sector Nickel import demand is expected to increase in the coming years.
India in World Nickel Industry
India meets its Nickel Requirement through import.
Courtesy: Mult Commodity Exchange of India.
Nickel rally poised to continue
Posted: May 19, 2009, 10:00 AM by Peter Koven
Mining, nickel
OK, we're still a long way from 2007, when nickel prices hit ridiculous highs of close to US$25 a pound. But Desjardins Securities analysts John Redstone and John Hughes think demand should outstrip supply right through 2010, driving prices back up to US$7.00 a pound. That would be a major improvement on the recent range of around US$5.00 a pound.
"For the balance of 2009, prices should continue to improve, mainly because of a combination of curtailed mine supply, a lack of scrap and a slow but steady recovery in the stainless steel market," they wrote in a note.
They estimated that 105,000 metric tonnes of refined nickel production has been removed from the market because of low prices, or about 8.4% of world consumption. They also wrote that Chinese nickel pig iron production has fallen, and Vale's summer shutdown in Sudbury will remove another 15,000 metric tonnes. Furthermore, they do not expect most of that capacity to come back until prices are firmly above US$7.00 again.
Then there is the improving demand from stainless steel producers. They described the stainless production declines in the second half of 2008 as "catastrophic," with output down 33% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year ago. But they noted that initial figures suggest that production rose slightly in the first quarter and has continued to improve in Q2.
Consequently, they wrote that total nickel inventories should be reduced from current levels of 9.8 weeks of consumption to just 6.5 weeks by the end of 2010, which is very positive for pricing. They also have "buy" ratings on two nickel companies: producer Sherritt International Corp. and junior Asian Mineral Resources Ltd.
Peter Koven
Production cuts and fund buying help Nickel
2009-05-09 13:00:38
In the month of April, Nickel prices gained sharply by 18.7%. Though steel demand is expected to remain weak, Nickel has found strong support and prices have rallied in the last few days. Since early April, prices have improved on the back of physical buying, investment demand and on short-covering. Investor confidence has seen renewed interest as investment and technical buying came in against a backdrop of rally across global equity markets.
This rise in Nickel prices is despite a rise in LME inventories by 46.6% on a year-to-date basis. Hence, this indicates that the real demand from the steel sector is still weak. The major cause for the rise in Nickel prices is the production cuts that are supporting prices amid a poor economic situation that has led to slowdown in demand. For 2009, global production cuts are expected to be around 20% of existing nickel production.
Development
Brazilian miner Vale has cut its global nickel output in order to adjust to the low demand amid a global economic downturn. The company has delayed the start-up of its nickel project in Brazil by at least one year, indicating that the demand is grim. Vale has also shut down its Sudbury nickel mines and processing plants in Ontario for eight weeks. Chinese refined Nickel imports declined month-on-month in March to 12,620 tonnes and underwhelming imports reflect the subdued situation of the domestic Chinese stainless steel demand.
Chinese stainless steel exports have been affected in recent months due to the threat of anti-dumping measures in Europe. On the other hand, European units are buying Nickel on a spot basis to meet hand-to-mouth needs. European steel mills are expected to remain under pressure in the next quarter and this could also put pressure on Nickel prices.
Nickel inventories gained more than 15% year-to-date
On a year-to-date basis, Nickel inventories on the LME have gained more than 45%. This is despite the production cutbacks as overall demand scenario is weak. On a month-on-month basis, inventories jumped almost 7% in April. The rising trend in inventories is a clear indicator of low demand.
Fundamental View
Stainless steel producers account for around 64% of nickel offtake, and they are struggling with new orders which are at all time lows right now. Severe production cuts have pulled out around 20% of nickel supply from the market and this is the real cause for the rise in prices rather than improvement in demand.
We feel that Nickel prices could feel pressure on the downside in the coming months as supply overwhelms demand. This is because of a weak stainless steel market. Despite cutback announcements by Vale the nickel market remains in ignificant oversupply. Prices have mainly rallied on the back of short-covering, investment buying, weaker dollar, stronger equity markets and a general lift up in sentiments. In the coming months too there may not be a sharp rise in demand as European and US stainless steel mills continue to operate below 50% of capacity and the pick-up in Chinese production is slowing.
The demand situation is still poor but prices could still receive support as a large number of nickel smelters have announced production cutbacks. Hence, the short-term trend in Nickel looks bullish. However, real recovery in demand from the steel sector could come in only by the end of this year of beginning of 2010. Until then, prices could receive support due to production cutbacks.
http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Production-cuts-and-fund-buying-help-Nickel-10451.html
Independent Nickel Corp (TSE:INI)
Last Price (CAD)
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Independent Nickel Corp (TSE:INI)
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Independent Nickel Corp (TSE:INI)
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Independent Nickel Corp. -
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Victory Nickel Nominees Appointed to Independent Nickel Board; Special Meeting of Shareholders Set to Consider Subsequent Acquisition Transaction
Sudbury, Ontario – October 9, 2008 – Independent Nickel Corp. (TSX:INI) (“Independent Nickel”) today announced that five directors have resigned from the board of directors of Independent Nickel and that four new directors have been appointed, all in accordance with the support agreement entered into between Independent Nickel and Victory Nickel Inc. (“Victory”) in respect of Victory’s offer (the "Offer") to acquire all of the outstanding common shares (the "Independent Shares") of Independent Nickel. Resigning from the board of Independent Nickel are Ron Arnold, Guy Mahaffy, Kerry Knoll, Thomas Obradovich and Conrad Swanson. The new directors of Independent Nickel are Rene Galipeau, Warren Holmes, Cynthia Thomas and George Archibald, who were nominated to the board of directors by Victory, which currently holds 46,741,434 Independent Shares, representing approximately 77% of the issued and outstanding Independent Shares. Richard Murphy and Wayne Whymark continue to act as directors of Independent Nickel.
Independent Nickel wishes to thank each of the outgoing directors for their guidance and dedication in growing the Company over the past three years.
It is anticipated that Independent Shares not tendered to the Offer by October 17, 2008, the expiry date of the Offer, will be acquired by Victory at the end of 2008 for the same per share consideration of 1.1 of a Victory Share that was offered in the Offer. A special meeting of Independent Nickel shareholders is planned for December of 2008, to approve this transaction. Further details pertaining to the meeting will be provided by Independent Nickel shortly. Victory owns sufficient Independent Shares to approve this acquisition, assuming no additional Independent Shares are issued. Independent Shares are expected to be delisted from the TSX upon the completion of this transaction.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Independent Nickel Corp.
Richard Murphy, President and CEO
Tel: (705) 521-8444
Email: info@independentnickel.com
Web: www.independentnickel.com
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INDEPENDENT NICKEL COM NPV(Toronto: INI.TO) fiat$0.0450
Trade Time: 10:23AM ET
Change: Down 0.0050 (10.00%)
Prev Close: 0.05
Open: 0.045
Bid: 0.0450
Ask: 0.0900
1y Target Est: N/A
Day's Range: 0.0450 - 0.0450
52wk Range: 0.05 - 0.63
Volume: 137,561
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Independent Nickel (Tier2) (INI) Last Trade: $0.0450
Change:
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Volume:
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Independent Nickel Corp. -
Business Description:
Engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties.
The Company has not yet determined whether its interests
contain reserves that are economically recoverable.
Address:
957 Cambrian Heights Drive, Suite 102,
Sudbury, ON, CN V7Y 1G5
Telephone:
(604) 718-5454
Website:
http://www.independentnickel.com
Facsimile:
(604) 646-2054
Email:
3mcc@telus.net
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