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Market Movers, July.16th. https://interactiveswingtrading.com/2019/07/16/market-movers-july-16/
Military sponsored research = $$$
IMRN going to run this week? Spread isn't great but it's thin. News seems decent. What's the consensus here?
You were probably early, but seems like it is rounding for a run later today.
Trying to shake out old holders for some inventory.
The fact that they have someone else paying for the next trials is quite good.
Reversal forming here l2 so thin
Should see a 2 day run halts on tiny volume there aint nothing on the ask caught the mms of guard
Same, jumped in here.
Smart move with minimal offer for $2mio. That’s likely because significant rerating is 6 weeks away in July . Very bullish
There seems to be understandable resistance to Gary Jacobs as the CEO. However, I agree they are making headway. I’ve just added at 5.05 common stock
Wow a lot of concurrent news. If I am understanding, it appears that Immuron is 1) going an fda approval pathway for travelan, 2) gained more intellectual property rights for c diff treatment in the US, and 3) affirmed timely results release for their ASH trial (late q2) that just concluded. The travelan fda angle is smart, free marketing being the biggest benefit. Foreign travel is also still a lucrative business and their are niche travel medicine clinics that would easily adopt the usage of fda approved products without much pr expenditure needed. I’m not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but the timing of so many simultaneous updates appears to be a signal of some sort of news cycle/pathway beginning... I doubt this is the last we hear from them in the coming months, in addition to expected ASH results. Any type of positive signal generated by the ASH trial (ignoring their other free NIH trials ongoing in similar indications), could be very very well timed. It is a totally different mechanism than ICPT, (thank goodness, ICPT’s data and their pruritis/itching issues leave a lot to be desired)- so IMRN could in some ways fill a potential treatment void that ICPT’s lackluster results created. Ie if good, IMRN could demonstrate an anti inflammatory effect on liver that could then be tested in fibrosis pathways, possibly as a combo drug with some other compounds being tested for Nash, or to slow damage with alcoholics etc. Anyways, the super low mkt cap will likely lead me to add a bit more now. I’m most hopeful for c diff indication, and the travelan marketing fda pathway is just a bonus. The ash trial seems like biggest long shot, but also most immediate potential upside (landslide really) if it could hit. I’m investing for the c diff stuff, the ASH/NASH pathway is just a big lottery ticket. I bet a lot of people are looking for lottery tickets right now though, after the recent Nash failures in bigger companies. Best of luck all
$IMRNW $10 exercise, 5 years initially so expiry is about 4 years now in 2022.
Massively mis-priced, time value alone is ~$5. Large gap between bid and offer. None for sale until $5.
Forgive me for not trying to locate the information, but what are the terms for the tradeable warrants? Whats the warrant price and expiration date? Thanks in advance!
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180308/pdf/43s8kylrttkl9w.pdf Bullish $$$$$ Target $35-$45 or USD$150-200mio cap
Checked out the NWBO ticker briefly. You were right about the not for faint of heart lol, but agree that there may be something there. My degrees are really far away from oncology so I make it a point to avoid that realm, but immunogenic stuff is somewhat closer to what I know (hence my IMRN interests), so maybe I’ll take a small dice roll on it. Any catalysts for them approaching aside from the interim data they just put out? Not bad data btw. To keep this on topic, I find it strange that someone continues to sell IMRNW intermittently for under 3.00, especially with the nash market catching fire. I saw a lot of warrant dumping from VKTX prior to planned catalysts and milestones from bigger guys, but really this makes little other sense to me in the setting of IMRN. I’ve been following the Australian ticker more closely and noted the volume uptick yesterday. The multiples and exchange rates are truly amazing on this one. I only hope they stick to the program and take a partner sooner rather than later. I don’t mind holding through their NIH trials, but am a little warrant heavy at this point if that’s what needs to happen. Best of luck
No worries. Yes I’m happily Long $NWBO. Priced for failure, due to constant bashing by Adam Feuerstein & shorts & naked shorts. However ongoing & hence I very much believe standard of care of 17-19 months survival will be smashed out of the park. Google Smiths on Stocks on Northwest Bio. Not for faint hearted, but I think it’s going to be a 100 bagger.
A really excellent synopsis, couldn’t have said it better if I tried. The incredibly low volume traded on this ticker on the asx (IMC.asx) has kept this in check and imho allows for a great buying opp on the US side. I will continue to buy the warrants (IMRNW), as many as I can get at 3.00, and slowly/gently at 3.50 to keep whoever is actually willing to part with them at a 3.50 level selling. It won’t take much volume on the asx side to make them pop huge. I think the small offering after the recent nash news confirmed intentions to partner. With any luck we will have an update within the next 3-4 months, right on the cusp of when we will begin to expect the first of our two (free) NIH trials to result. 500 mil cap seems fair, but realistically I’ll be happy with 250-300 mil, as my initial pivot point to unload a bit (unless Travelan continues on the upward trajectory we have started to see, of course). Travelan sales and increased public awareness of the product will really derail this further in the short term, imho. At a modest 250 mil mkt cap (Australian currency), IMRN would be $50, IMRNW would be $40ish. The exchange rate 1 USD is approx 1.28 AUS dollar, it seems to equate well to the warrant conversion effect and full dilution, so keeping market cap in Australian dollars as a quick equivalent of full dilution and 1:1 US mkt cap seems fair. I appreciate your math and DD on the fully diluted share count. Appreciate your continued posts, best of luck. Anything else you are into?
Immuron $IMRN is a dual listed biotech focused on therapies by targeting the microbiome.
Targeting NASH or NAFLD. Also Cdiff.
Has growing revenues from Travelan & US Department of Defence has provided exceptional efficacy results for Travelan & ongoing tests for US military.
Great NASH PH2 results & expected Pharma upfront $$$ & collaboration soon $$$
Also US National Institute of Health selected Immuron’s drug & are fully funding trials for Pediatriatric Fatty Liver & Also Alcoholic Fatty Liver in adults!!
Company is unknown is USA yet, total issuance of all warrants, options, ADR’s & Australian shares will be 220mio, so market cap at mom is USD$50mio & I expect it will be USD$500 in next 12 months.
Comparables are $MCRB, $ICPT, $GNFT
Nvm I found it searching patent site... thank you for the info!
Link for others to verify...
https://assignment.uspto.gov/patent/index.html#/patent/search/resultAbstract?id=9943597&type=patNum
Thanks for the post, where did you find this info? Thanks again appreciate it
Today, April 17, 2018, Immuron Limited obtained issued U.S. Patent No. 9,943,597 related to treatment of NASH.
Excellent post, thank you. I like your investing approach as well... ASX shares and IMRNW seem to be a good approach until this gets onto the radar for US traders. Thanks again for correct the false info with actual facts
If you are going to make statements you should read everything on the company.
Dilution was 10%. There are a total of 220mio equivalent ASX shares; This is all ASX ordinary shares, all ASX IMCOB options, all Nasdaq IMRN ADR's at 40:1 and all Nasdaq IMRNW warrants & the new issuance at 39 cents with attaching options.
So at USD$250mio market cap, or ~$1.45/$1.50 ASX or IMRN $45, then Immuron is an acceptable starting valuation. Even though Big pharma will likely pay USD$500mio-$1bio right now for the whole company, pipeline in Cdiff, NASH, ASH, travelan etc.
I am very happy with my ASX longs, ASX options & my IMRNW warrants.
You know own 3/16 of what you used to own. What a rip off. Dilution of 440 percent or so by an additional 13 plus million shares plus options which will cause enormously more dilution.
How much did you pay for your now diluted shares?
The new investors are paying 39 cents a share non diluted and will own at least 13/16 of the company right now. That's outrageously criminal.
Yes I agree, on the collaboration should easily rerate to USD$250-USD$300mio market cap. That a fair valuation as a starter.
I think a $200 mil cap would be very fair given that other nash plays are much more valued even than that. We have to assume that partner or a decent funding deal is coming. Can’t really predict a share price until we know which way they go. A dilutive approach may keep us where we are or up to $20 until q4 when the other trials are due. A partner approach could get us to the $200 mil cap quickly, which would put us at $40-$60 ranges.
How high do you think the share price will go in 2018? I estimate at least $50 as a starter.
If they raised money above $25.00 I am gonna cr@p myself at work tomorrow! :) GLTA
Big pharma would happily steal the company today at $1bio or ~$160 per ADS (fully diluted) for nash, ash, pedriatric nash, cdiff, travelan. The sellers are dumb sellers. If not sold Immuron will sign big a contract with Bigpharma for phase 3 NASH pharma for USD$100mio in next few months, hence no more cap raises.
Sanyal is quoted as stating:
"This is truly a proof of concept for this first-in-class drug candidate." said Arun Sanyal, Professor of Gastroenterology and Hepatology from the Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, USA and the study lead Principle Investigator.
"The IMM-124E drug candidate has been developed to target LPS in the gut and prevent it translocating into the portal circulation. The study results clearly demonstrate a statistically significant reduction of serum LPS levels in the treatment groups when compared to placebo and provides us with a proof of concept that metabolic endotoxemia can indeed be decreased using this drug candidate (IMM-124E) which targets the endotoxin LPS. We are encouraged that IMM-124E, a drug with an exceptional safety profile, can lower the LPS-associated inflammatory burden and improve liver enzymes. The potential clinical applications for this drug candidate are numerous and very exciting indeed"
EXPECTING MEGA RUNS FOR IMRN AND ZSAN. POSITIVE NASH RESULTS WITH NO SERIOUS SIDE EFFECTS COULD BRING SOME ASTRONOMICAL NUMBERS TO IMRN HERE. NASH DISEASE IS NO JOKE. LETS SEE.
$25 would only be a fully diluted ASX & Nasdaq shares & options on slightly less than 200mio shares/warrants/options, equates to ~80cents on ASX. Which is $160mio AUD$ or USD$120mio using a AUDUSD cross rate of 0.75.
This is incredibly cheap at $120mio USD. So I'm estimating anything between USD$400mio to $1bio is feasible on good Nash Ph2results & ensuing partnership agreement with big pharma.
Share price at 400/600/800/1bio market caps:
USD$400mio being ~$84 per share on Nasdaq or $2.67 on the Australian ASX
Market cap of USD$600mio being $126 per Nasdaq share or $4 on the ASX
USD$800mio ~$168 on Nasdaq or $5.34 ASX
USD$1bio ~$210, $6.67 on ASX
Personally I think a share price of north of $126 on Nasdaq is easily achievable on positive PH2 NASH & pharma collaboration within a few months afterwards. This also completely ignores the very promising preclinical Cdiff pipeline, which has commenced a Phase 1/2 on 60 patients.
Also on a cash side, Immuron will have funds from warrants & options exercising, & also cash lump sum payment from big pharma collaboration.
Keen to hear your thoughts on the market cap projections. Good luck and let's hope for amazing PH2 Nash results & a fantastic partnering deal with a chunky lump sum.
If results are anywhere near good For Nash, we could see 25 dallars instantly... with this micro o/s
Please willbyou change board to Free US Biotechs, as more will use it. You've loaded as Canadian alternative energy by mistake. I tried to make board in biotech but it won't let me because ticker already exists here
Amazing valuation opportunity. NASH 3 trials, 2 fully funded by US NIH. NASH Ph2b results b4 Dec 31st 2017. Q1 2018, NASH transaction, lump of cash say USD$100mio-250mio & no more dilution, no more R&D on NASH as Bigpharma pay ut & then say 15% of NAFLD/NASH sales income. Meanwhile progress CDiff which is worth billions for ongoing revenue of buyout. This board shows noone knows!!
it's not traded on a canadian stock exchange
Beat Down recent IPO. In here $5.30
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Immuron Reports Neutralizing activity Against SARS-CoV-2
Key Points:
? | Immuron’s IMM-124E used to manufacture Travelan® and Protectyn® demonstrates antiviral activity against the COVID-19 virus in laboratory studies |
? | Immuron’s technology platform offers a potential new oral therapeutic approach to target SARS-CoV-2 in the GI Tract |
Melbourne, Australia, July 21, 2020: Immuron Limited (ASX: IMC; NASDAQ: IMRN), an Australian biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercialising oral immunotherapeutics for the prevention and treatment of gut mediated pathogens, today is pleased to announce that IMM-124E used to manufacture the company’s flag ship commercially available and over-the-counter gastrointestinal and digestive health immune supplements Travelan® and Protectyn® has demonstrated neutralizing activity against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19.
The cytopathic effect inhibition cell-based assay was established and performed by 360 biolabs, a Melbourne based Contract Research Organization using the SARS-CoV-2 hCoV-19/Australia/VIC01/2020 virus obtained from Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity. The in-vitro assessment of the neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 was performed on four production lots of product used to manufacture Travelan® and Protectyn®. The In-vitro susceptibility of the virus to IMM-124E was determined using the quantitative assay which measures virus replication in the presence of increasing concentrations of the product compared to replication in the absence of the product. The effective concentration of IMM-124E was reported as the concentration of the product at which virus replication is inhibited by 50 percent (EC50) or 90 percent (EC90).
All four production lots produced mean EC50 values of 40.5 to 91.9 ug/mL and inhibited viral replication at concentrations which there was no observed cell toxicity. The concentration of IMM-124E at which virus replication was inhibited by 90 percent (EC90) produced mean EC90 values ranging from 48.7 to 155.4 ug/mL for all four lots tested again at concentrations at which there was no observed cell toxicity. A commercially available high protein milk powder product was used as a placebo in the studies and produced EC50 values greater than the observed cellular cytotoxicity concentration of >4800 ug/mL. The control milk powder inhibited viral replication at doses >25,000 ug/mL and more importantly did not inhibit viral replication at doses which it was cytotoxic to cells.
Another major finding made during the study was that cell viability in the presence of IMM-124E was greatly enhanced when compared to placebo. IMM-124E improved cell viability by 180 to 260% relative to controls. These results indicate that IMM-124E at concentrations which inhibited SARS-CoV-2 replication improved cell viability.
The Type B meeting with the FDA discussed the Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls including the proposed release testing specifications of the product as well as the planned clinical studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of the product which the company is developing to prevent Campylobacter and ETEC mediated moderate to severe diarrhea.
The FDA were recently provided a Pre- Investigational New Drug (IND) package for the new Hyper-immune therapeutic which specifically targets Campylobacter jejuni capsule and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) colonization factor antigen 1. Following FDA review the agency provided a written response to the non-clinical questions posed in the briefing documentation as well as providing additional guidance and comments to support the planned IND submission.
“This is an important milestone in the development of any new drug for therapeutic evaluation. The information obtained from this review will assist in the development of the IND application and provides a clear roadmap forward for conducting the two planned clinical studies next year,” said Dr. Jerry Kanellos, CEO of Immuron Ltd. “The company is also please to inform shareholders that the manufacturing program is proceeding as planned. We have completed the second immunisation campaign and are on schedule to harvest the Hyper-immune colostrum in September this year which will be used to manufacture the drug product that will be used to treat moderate to severe campylobacteriosis and ETEC infections.”
This release has been authorised by the directors of Immuron Limited.
COMPANY CONTACT:
Dr Jerry Kanellos, Ph.D.
Chief Executive Officer
Ph: +61 (0)3 9824 5254
info@immuron.com
For more information visit: http://www.immuron.com
www.immuron.com
Level 3, 62 Lygon Street,
Carlton South, Victoria
AUSTRALIA 3053
Phone: + 61 (0)3 9824 5254
Facsimile: + 61 (0)3 9822 7735
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