Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP)

[ItsMyOption]

Did you cover your short yet? My STO $20 PUT which I collected $2.00 looks great and making nice $$

Why would I "talk" to someone who bets hunches and whims? I might bet on Hindenburg Research whose calls have very rarely been wrong, BTW,
Icahn's costs are soaring even as I type this. .

[bar1080]

Why would I "talk" to someone who bets hunches and whims? I might bet on Hindenburg Research whose calls have very rarely been wrong, BTW,

Icahn's costs are soaring even as I type this. .

[ItsMyOption]

In Oct when IEP is above $19.60 when I wrote those PUT option we can talk again to see who picked the wrong side! IMO - IEP will be much above that pps

Looks like "your feeling" is way wrong as IEP's fall gather's speed,

[bar1080]

Looks like "your feeling" is way wrong as IEP's fall gather's speed,

[ItsMyOption]

IEP reported Aug 18th record date for next $1.00 dividend. This is one reason the pps has come down. Next dividend date should be around Nov. 17th so I just STO the Oct. 20th $20 PUT and collected $2.00 today so if IEP is above $20 on that expiration date which I think it will I keep all of that $2.00 premium. If IEP is below $20 I will get assigned but my cost will be $18 and then I collect another $1.00 dividend in Nov.. IMO I feel IEP is at bottom and should go up.

[bar1080]

Icahn's IEP 20.79 -1.43 (-6.44%) !

[BioChica]

Only if you sell - that's stock will be backup after the bloggers fade away.

[BioChica]

Bogus report!

[bar1080]

On Yahoo Finance, lots of IEP holders losing faith and reporting huge losses, Read the comments. I don't understand elderly investors owning so much in this inscrutable stock.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IEP/community?p=IEP

[bar1080]

Financial Times on the IEP Div

"The basics of the Carl Icahn story are fairly simple. Icahn owns most of an investment fund that pays a big dividend. He usually elects to take his dividends in new stock, so it’s not much of a cash cost. Having a big dividend has meant the shares are much more richly valued than the underlying assets would normally justify, and having a high share price means Icahn can sell new shares and use the proceeds to keep paying the dividend.

Hindenburg Research has described the circularity as “ponzi-like” and Icahn hasn’t really disagreed, because how could he? Icahn Enterprises is (or was) a perpetual motion machine powered by equity issuance.

That alone doesn’t make it a bad investment, though it does require some pragmatism. It’s very obviously silly to expect infinite demand for overvalued shares that will fund the overgenerous dividend and keep the shares overvalued. But for as long as the stock remains priced on prospective yield rather than cash flow or asset value, and for as long as Icahn keeps volunteering to be the XXL bagholder, it’s not an illogical purchase. Matt Levine called the structure “ponzi-like, but in a fun way.”

So how does a stockbroker encourage its clients to buy a fun, ponzi-like investment? Not with the p-word, obviously.

Jefferies — Icahn’s favourite investment bank when raising money, and the only sellside house to issue research on Icahn Enterprises — chose instead to accept the impossible. Central its regular “buy” advice was the idea that Icahn dividends were perpetual.

It’s not possible to know whether purchasers believed this (or indeed whether the analysts did) but in a sense it doesn’t matter. What’s more important is that they could believe other investors did. Eternal dividends were the consensus, based on a survey of one. Then along came Hindenburg to break a wilful delusion at a volume that no one could ignore.

Icahn had been paying a $2 per share quarterly dividend since 2018. Jefferies dropped the perpetual divi forecast in May, shortly after Hindenburg report landed, but still expected an unchanged dividend until 2026, with only a 10 per cent per annum reduction thereafter.

This was a very bad prediction. Icahn last week halved its dividend to $1 per share.

What had changed? In theory, not that much. Icahn Enterprises has been a car crash operationally and reputationally — EPS came in at negative $0.71 rather than the positive $0.25 Jefferies had forecast — but the miracle machinery remains in place. Total second-quarter liquidity reduced by approximately $300mn to $6.6bn and holding company cash fell sequentially from $1.9bn to $1.6bn, whereas halving the dividend will save just $100mn a quarter or thereabouts.

Asked to explain the decision to cut on last week’s conference call, Icahn Enterprises’ president and CEO David Willetts deployed a lot of words:

As we’ve always done historically, we look at a number of different factors, right? I mean, obviously, business performance, economic macros, obligations under the indentures cash flows from the underlying companies. We look at the entire situation.

Obviously, the world has changed, at least for us, given a number of these articles that were in first quarter, second quarter. And so we’ve taken all of that and with the Board have looked at and determine that. For this quarter, it made sense to adjust the dividend to a $1 distribution per unit, right? As we look forward, as we do every quarter, we take those same factors and we reassess what the dividend or distribution should be.

Now to your specific questions with regards to sources I mean, there are several different sources. But I mean, ultimately, what you take a look at is this is a lumpy long-term business, right? We have large wins from time to time, and we have volatility in the market. We are not a company that necessarily has steady, predictable cash flow chunking in and out every quarter. So given that unpredictability and lumpiness, we take a look at all the factors I mentioned to determine how we actually set a dividend or distribution. When it comes to sources, obviously, we have sizable amounts of cash on hand today.

We have a large number of securities in our hedge funds, and we have operating companies, all of which can be sources of profit or sources of capital to return to shareholders or unitholders as we look forward. Anything else to add, Ted?

Ted Papapostolou — Chief Financial Officer

No. You hit spot on, Dave.

And also:

When we take a look at going forward, I think from this quarter, Carl has indicated, although he hasn’t made a final determination that he is likely to take some mix of cash and securities. But his final election hasn’t been determined, right? And obviously, beyond this quarter, there’s no communication as to what his indications are, right? And historically, from time to time, Carl has taken distributions. So this is also in line, I think, with past practice.

. . . which changes everything.

Farewell then to two parts of the perpetual motion machine: Icahn’s reliance on scrip and the no-matter-what cash returns. Shares are down 50 per cent from where they were at the start of May so the chances of raising money also look slim to nil. For all the company’s anger about the “misleading Hindenburg report”, it’s hard not to conclude that, for a while at least, the game’s up.

Jefferies, nevertheless, sees enough to keep recommending Icahn to clients as a “buy”. Its revised 2023 dividend forecast where (presuming it means the fiscal rather than calendar year) $2 + $1 + $1 + $1 = $6, suggests the team retains some belief in the impossible:"

www.ft.com

[BioChica]

I predicted this two months ago. The price will recover in weeks ahead. The dividend is still good. I have no problem with it. It can be raised later to $1.50. This company is way under valued, their cash flow is great. And cash in the bank last I heard over a billion.

[bar1080]

Just out from NYT: "Mr. Icahn also said the board would continue to assess its plans for a dividend each quarter based on “current economic conditions and business performance,” among other factors.

Mr. Anderson took a victory lap on Friday morning. In a post on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, he noted his May 2 prediction that “Icahn Enterprises will eventually cut or eliminate its dividend entirely, barring a miracle turnaround in investment performance.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/business/carl-icahn-shares-dividend.html

[Zilla]

Well that was unexpected...20.54 low to 25.74 high and 25.09 close
So if it was trading consistently @ 50 with a 2 dollar divi the cut to 1 dollar makes the 25 current price make sense.
However that's not factoring in anything bad so...IMO I expect lower. 35 was only 70% of 50 so 17.50 is 70% of 25 and that was before we knew anything. Low of 18.03 is 36% of 50 so 36% of 25 is 9...That said I doubt this ever closes under 10 bucks but 'funny math' is funny and if people thought it was overvalued before then I'd guess they think it's still the same. Watch out for another short attack.

[bar1080]

"Icahn's firm cuts dividend months after Hindenburg report"

"(Reuters) - Icahn Enterprises on Friday said it would cut its dividend payout months after short seller Hindenburg Research accused the investment firm of operating a "Ponzi-like" structure to pay dividends.

Shares of Icahn Enterprises fell 26% in premarket trading. Hindenburg said it remained short on the company.

The investment firm, owned by Carl Icahn, said it would distribute $1 per depositary unit to its investors for the second quarter, lower than its usual payout of $2 per unit.

Icahn has previously denied the allegations made in Hindenburg's report that has landed the famed activist investor in hot waters. Known for his high-profile corporate battles, Icahn has rarely faced a challenge of the scale posed by the short seller's attack.

The billionaire investor last month disclosed he had restructured $3.7 billion in personal loans to remove a link between his obligation to post collateral and his holding company's share price, in a bid to undo the damage done by Hindenburg.

The investment company took another jab at the short seller on Friday.

"We do not intend to let a misleading Hindenburg report interfere with this practice (of distributing dividends)," Icahn Enterprises said in a statement."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahns-investment-firm-cuts-122239958.html

(

[bar1080]

"Icahn Enterprises Stock Plunges on Steep Cut to Quarterly Distribution"

"Shares of Icahn Enterprises IEP –1.83% fell sharply in premarket trading Friday after the company announced a steep cut to its quarterly distribution and reported a wider second-quarter loss.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/icahn-enterprises-stock-dividend-cut-2bcd3f4d

[ZZZ888]

3 weeks to ex dividend. Let’s go

[193638]

I keep reinvesting the div 300 plus shares at 27.05 I trust Carl

[entertaininvesting]

buy and hold - that's way to go with Carl - still $2/quarter in dividend in tact or $8/year in dividend.

[Glider549]

"it's not Nathan's fault, it's just because he never had a chance to learn how to run a hedge fund."

It's not my fault I drove over the sidewalk into that crowd, I just never had a chance to learn how to drive.

[entertaininvesting]

$50 in no time - Carl's personal loan agreement is not attached to IEP assets, and hence, that short report became worthless.

[kenny54]

$34, the master at work.

[BioChica]

I think most investor just ignore the lawyers class action suites. In these cases they can hurt more than help.

[brucebill]

So much for the lawsuit.Ambulance chasers there all alike.

[ZZZ888]

Almost payday

[BioChica]

With yearly revenues over over 14 Billion the PPS is now officially under valued!

[BioChica]

After the FBI investigation we may find out!

[leftovers]

certainly not at 2.00 dollars a share. IEP is in very High Risk territory here!

[bar1080]

The dividend won't likely last and the market knows it. IEP's being smacked with costly class action litigation right and left.

[BioChica]

Trap for the Friday PUTS. Already climbed on high volume before the close.

[bar1080]

Here Anderson solicits tips on "hard to find information" "from atypical sources."

"we often look for situations where companies may have any combination of:

* Accounting irregularities
* Bad actors in management or key service provider roles
* Undisclosed related-party transactions
* Illegal/unethical business or financial reporting practices
* Undisclosed regulatory, product, or financial issues"

https://hindenburgresearch.com/about-us/

[bar1080]

Wonder whether Nate Anderson had a mole inside IEP. He and some of the other shorters have actively solicited inside info in a sort of "Rat Out Your Boss for Profit" approach.

IEP's free fall indicates The Street thinks the stock has very little durable, unencumbered value. I can't wait to read the detailed exposes.

[BioChica]

This guy got swatted like a fly by Icahn.

[lvhd]

POS down 24% Wow

[leftovers]

He is not a happy camper at the moment.

It's also clear now that Icahn isn't able to do much about it.

[bar1080]

The free fall is remarkable. Now off much more than 50% in a few weeks. It's also clear now that Icahn isn't able to do much about it.

[leftovers]

Timber now trading in the teens...

[Zilla]

Added some 2024 ITM calls just in case.

[bar1080]

"Ackman Says Icahn ‘Somewhat’ Like Archegos as Stock Plunges Anew"

"Bloomberg) — Bill Ackman said Hindenburg Research has “outed” the way billionaire Carl Icahn runs his publicly traded company and suggested shares have room to fall after tumbling to the lowest levels since 2009."

"In a lengthy Twitter post, Ackman, 57, also called out 87-year-old Icahn’s use of margin loans against his shares in Icahn Enterprises LP. The stock plunged more than 13% on Wednesday, with the price reaching the lowest level in more than 14 years. Ackman, who has clashed with Icahn in the past, said his firm was neither long nor short — “just watching from a distance.”

“$IEP reminds me somewhat of Archegos where the swap counterparties were comforted by each having relatively smaller exposures to the situation,” Ackman said, referring to Bill Hwang’s family office that spectacularly blew up in 2021.

“All it takes is for one lender to break ranks and liquidate shares or attempt to hedge, before the house comes falling down,” Ackman said. “Here, the patsy is the last lender to liquidate.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-ackman-says-icahn-somewhat-205128986.html

[bar1080]

LOLOL! "Does Icahn L.P. fall 7% everyday?"

IEP $25.62 (off 7.3%)"

No, some days it falls much more than 7%. Off 12% today.

[lvhd]

In some

[bar1080]

Does Icahn L.P. fall 7% everyday?

IEP $25.62 (off 7.3%)

[jgstockhunter]

pretty reckless to short IEP when 88% owned by one person who is a billionaire. Icahn has borrowed against his 88% on margin but this is not his only asset. Tender offer for $55 and its all over. This couldn't be hedged, there are no shares to borrow.

[bar1080]

"Icahn's wealth plunged by $15 billion since a short-seller targeted him – but the activist investor says he's ready to fight back"

* "Carl Icahn's wealth has fallen by $15 billion since Hindenburg targeted him last month.

* The 87-year-old activist investor said in a recent interview that he's ready to fight the short-seller.

* "If you're going to be bothered by this, you shouldn't be in this business," Icahn told Bloomberg."

"According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the activist investor's net worth has slumped from nearly $25 billion to just under $10 billion since the short-seller said Icahn Enterprises (IEP) was significantly overvalued on May 2."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahns-wealth-plunged-15-182303961.html

[bar1080]

Where did you go? IEP is having yet another dreadful day!

BTW, what does "HF worlds" mean?

"given nathan doesn't have any credibility in HF worlds"

[The_Free_Nebula]

I see..thanx

[leftovers]

I was worried this would happen after the Xdate. The 20's seem certain here?

I can't see Carl maintaining a 2 dollar dividend at these levels and he will most certainly have debt called in.

The last stock that I followed who the Hindenburg report shorted was RIDE went from twenty dollars down to the now .30 cents.

There is no warm and fuzzies with IEP

[bar1080]

Carl Icahn's IEP shares are off 7% more today after a 7% drop on Friday.

[bar1080]

"several short sellers covered their positions on Thursday." How could you know that?

... "perhaps, he [Anderson] had a very bad last year." Did you never hear of his monumental Adani short? Huge investors are surely lined up to invest with Anderson.

I'm very familiar with Markopolos. I'm a retired lawyer. My son's a CPA

[entertaininvesting]

one thing about $2, it's an unit distribution through K-1 statement not a dividend.
IEP is a pass-through entity so IRS gets their cut only if I have nothing to offset the distribution.

and read 10Q - the company already stated that Carl's position didn't trigger any margin issue which nathan speculated it on his paper and it was a complete lie. soon, he is going to get sued just like before and his record is not good.

one more thing - take a look at option activities and how there were call contracts bought in blocks last week.

[entertaininvesting]

not really, Nathan founded Hindenburg research which is a part of his tiny hedge fund where he couldn't raise capital for years since 2017.

yes, he made trading profits off of yangtze, nikola though he lost the legal case against yangtze and paid legal costs.

for IEP case, he didn't do enough research about how Carl structured his LPs - it's not Nathan's fault, it's just because he never had a chance to learn how to run a hedge fund.

one comment, do you remember 'Harry Markopolos' trying to kill GE with his short research paper? as it turned out, Harry was funded by short sellers to be on the media for couple weeks. as GE insiders kept buying out the shares, the short sellers didn't make money so harry disappeared and the media stopped covering the story. coincidence? maybe.

what's next? several short sellers covered their positions on thursday so let's see what's going to happen. given nathan doesn't have any credibility in HF worlds, i don't buy his story - he did this to make some profit. perhaps, he had a very bad last year.