Hovnanian Enterprises Class A (HOV)

[Eurotradr]

Hovnanian beats by $0.11, misses on revs

9:20 AM ET 12/6/18 | Briefing.com
Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.30 per share, $0.11 better than the single analyst estimate of $0.19; revenues fell 14.8% year/year to $614.81 mln vs the $638.8 mln single analyst estimate.While total revenues decreased $106.9 million, homebuilding revenues for unconsolidated joint ventures increased $154.5 million to $252.6 million for the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2018, compared with $98.1 million in last year's fourth quarter.

[DirteeHarree]

You did not mention HOV???

[Eurotradr]

Can anyone say Capitulation!!! This is a buying opportunity!!

Why Homebuilder Stocks May Rebound From a Bear Market Drop By Shoshanna Delventhal | November 20, 2018 — 6:00 AM EST
Share

Homebuilding and related stocks such as Lennar Corp. (LEN), PulteGroup Inc. (PHM), Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) and D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), which have plunged 23% as a group into a bear market, are now poised to rebound, according to one market watcher.

Home Builders: Ready to Rebound?
Stock Percentage Off 52-Week High
Lennar 42.5%
Pulte 28.4%
DRHorton 34.4%
Toll 41%
XHB ETF 27.8%
'Technical Support Is in Place,' Says Bull

In an interview with CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday, Todd Gordon, technical analyst and founder of TradingAnalysis.com, argued that the recent sell-off in homebuilding stocks is an overreaction on fears of rising rates.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) saw its losses accelerate once the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 2.8%, said Gordon. He noted that from that point on, the plunge in the homebuilder sector has been stark, yet the technical charts signal a rebound in the near future.

"Technical support is in place, and we can continue higher," said Gordon, who notes that as long as the ETF is above $31 to $32, things are looking up for the XHB, which is trading just above $34 on Monday afternoon. He does not foresee a rapid rate increase, and his forecast does not take into account an unforeseen spike in rates.

Gordon's bullish view is in stark contrast to many investors who are fleeing the sector.
What's Next for Homebuilding Investors?

Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, chimed in on the CNBC segment, arguing that despite forecasts for continued growth in the U.S. economy, higher interest rates "really affect first-time homebuyers," who are currently the focus of the homebuilding market.

"So they're really sensitive to very small moves in interest rates, because it does move their monthly mortgage, and that does matter to first-time homebuyers. So I think that's a big problem," she stated.

On the bright side, however, Sanchez noted that lower costs could boost housing stocks. In particular, falling lumber prices should help boost margins, while limited land supply relative to demand could contribute to more attractive prices for the group.

Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi was out with a bearish note, indicating that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate hit a crucial 5% level earlier this year, weighing heavy on single-family housing demand, as reported by CNBC.

"Affordability is now an issue for many potential home owners. Home sales have gone sideways since the beginning of the year and house price growth is now slowing in many markets so it's already doing damage. Some of the weakening is due to the tax effect in markets where the deduction was critical," he added.

While homebuilder and related stocks may prove volatile, they likely will not crash in magnitude comparable to the Financial Crisis, according to Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller. The Yale economist told CNBC's Power Lunch in October that we may be in a bubble, "but it's not the same...It's more placid" this time.

Read more: Why Homebuilder Stocks May Rebound From a Bear Market Drop | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/why-homebuilder-stocks-may-rebound-bear-market-drop/#ixzz5YjopvPKY
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

[Toro Twister]

The grinch just wrapped up a nice warm turd for all to enjoy.

[Eurotradr]

Maintaining the faith... it is that time of the season after all!!!

Actually trying to free up more cash as I do not see this going any lower unless some really bad news is reported on the conference call Thursday. I believe all the bad news is baked in already and we are now looking towards Spring of 2019.

[DirteeHarree]

How's that Christmas present working?

[Toro Twister]

Powell finally blinked publicly. I've been predicting the supposed hawkish tone was a bit of a shot across the bow to see how the market (bond that is) would react. I would not be shocked if they hold rates in Decemeber and hike twice in 2019. It would still be a touch towards hawkish behavior by the almighty money gods but the market has already priced in 4 hikes so this would be good....especially for homebuyers which also means homebuilders

[Eurotradr]

I'm with you there my Friend. Housing starts reported today were better than expected. Housing stocks are beaten down and very sensitive. Would not take a lot to get a run from this low point. Hoping for a nice Christmas present.

[Toro Twister]

I lost my train of thought.

If the Fed hold rates next month (seems to be more so-called experts changing their predictions) and the yield curve doesn't flatten home builders could see a nice run. It's a longshot at this point but I'm still in.

[Eurotradr]

???

[Toro Twister]

IMO

[Eurotradr]

Time will tell. Stocks are priced 6 months into the future. History, year after year, dispels your theory. A move upward in not a guarantee but I am betting on history repeating itself. JMHO

[DirteeHarree]

This time of year, With winter hitting and all? It isn't going up

[Eurotradr]

This is going to be a big week for housing reports. Some believing the the Fed will hold off raising in December providing signs of hope. Setting up for a late year rally. I remain confident in history repeating itself.

[Toro Twister]

What have we here!!! Momentum or dead cat bounce???

[Toro Twister]

Many of the national builders are hovering around their 52 week lows. The yield curve is looking a bit suspect. If it inverts for any length of time home builders are finished. It's one of the most reliable leading indicators of recession and with rising rates, inflated home prices(bubble by some peoples measure in many markets), and overall market volatility we could be in for a rough ride here. I would expect HOV to level off and hover around the buck and a quarter mark for awhile. It wouldn't take much for a nice pop though

[Eurotradr]

Yes, and we seem helpless to do anything about it. Now would be a good time, if it were true, for the Government to use their "weather Control" conspiracy theory equipment and give the West Coast a moderate rain fall to not cause another disaster in mud slides. Far too many lives being lost... one is too many!!

As to HOV, they say the time to buy is when all others are selling. The housing sector is in a selloff and looking/nearing oversold. The bottom Bollenger Band tricked me but the upper bank has reversed. Have to keep an eye on this to see what follows.

[Toro Twister]

Its a tragic situation with the fires.

[Eurotradr]

Yeah, on CNBC the Builders are blaming this downturn on the wild fires in Cali and delayed closing. Still hoping and praying for history to repeat itself and we see a late Nov. or Dec. reversal. Ugh!

[Toro Twister]

Not today. This thing is looking more like a floating turd every day. Ugly ugly ugly

[Eurotradr]

The bottom Bollenger Band has begun to reverse which is a good sign we may be near the annual reversal and begin to climb back up.

[Eurotradr]

Housing Stocks Dirt Cheap - An Opportunity to Buy???
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/08/housing-stocks-are-getting-hammered-but-one-strategist-sees-a-buying-opportunity.html

[Eurotradr]

I just doubled down and loaded again at $1.36.
Ready for HOV to begin it's annual run up.

[Eurotradr]

Industry news today caused this dip. I think $1.30 was the bottom. Buy, Buy, Buy!

[Toro Twister]

Big dip here. Doubled down today

[Eurotradr]

I am betting on the charts and hope HOV trends just as it has done the past FIVE (5) + years. I believe we are at or near a bottom and pray history repeats itself. Some years more that others but always a move north right up to the 1st of the year then a turn downwards.

[Toro Twister]

I hope you are correct. Been accumulating chunks for several weeks now and am considering doubling down if this thing goes South of $1.30.

[Eurotradr]

Market conditions have been far worse the past few years and look at the moves. The economy is booming and and the housing market is low on inventory. Yes, there are some headwinds but nothing even close to recent years. I will gamble the on the charts and have already begun building a nice position here. The upward trend should begin any day now and sputter out by years end where a short position will be taken up. IMHO

[Toro Twister]

Hope you're correct. Not sure the current interest rate environment is friendly towards the national builders. HOV's price points in their markets are a but high imo.

[Eurotradr]

Historically this is the time to load up. Look at your charts. Late October/early November HOV hits its lows and shortly thereafter shoots up. Now is the time to accumulate!!

[furface]

Housing market is building like crazy. This stock 10 months ago was around $3.00 now it's $1.40. If you want little or no return on you money this is the place to be.

[Saskey]

10/9: JMP Securities Upgrades Hovnanian Enterprises to Market Perform, Removes $1.30 Price Target (Benziga)

[Tower of Hanoi]

Which part? :)

[DirteeHarree]

BS

[Tower of Hanoi]

Putnam- I get his letter. Gotta have a VERY strong stomach but he's got a good record.

Seriously, this is buy and HOLD and don't look at it, territory. I've allocated tiny amounts to each position because the swings either way can be brutal.

I won't tell you at what price he advised this gem, wouldn't be right, but between this and APRN, some folks could have a heart attack.

When he's right, he wins huge! More to offset the losers.......

GL!

I DON'T HAVE A POSITION IN HOV AT THE MOMENT!!!

[Saskey]

HOV flagged as a BUY. "Wall Street veteran who flagged Apple at $1.14 a share says these 5 overlooked stocks are buys" (MarketWatch) HOV is on this list.

[crcro]

Okay, loaded, and standing by for the ride back up now.

[Fibanotch]

dthy toast

[Fibanotch]

ftt

[Fibanotch]

under 2 , 1.50 ... how can u miss?

[PennyP1cker]

The company is moving ahead with new projects in hot markets like NJ and CA. Projects are selling out. This looks like a great time to load up and enjoy the ride. Now that we have the financing in place all the stars are aligned. Huge upside possible.

[PennyP1cker]

HOV is plugging along on many great projects that will have no problem selling. Prices are surging in the west and HOV has a strong presence in the hottest markets. I like HOV better than any of its competitors that I can think of. Much better than PHM and better than TOL and WLH because HOV has the best locations! LEN also has great locations but the market cap is a lot higher. Another great stock is MSPC, it's trading at the 52-week high.

[PennyP1cker]

SAN RAMON, CA, Feb. 06, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The True Life Companies (TTLC) is pleased to announce the first two sales of home sites at its 199-acre, 976-unit Sterling Meadows master-planned community in Elk Grove, CA, a highly regarded suburb of Sacramento. The first 60 home sites were sold to national builder K. Hovnanian Homes, which closed in mid-December. The second set of 69 home sites was sold to Richmond American Homes, which closed in mid-January. These two closings are part of three recent bulk transactions in the North Village phase of Sterling Meadows, with a total of 460 lots. The third sale of home sites is currently in escrow.

According to Aidan Barry, Senior Vice President of Development, TTLC, “The sale of these home sites to K. Hovnanian and Richmond American are excellent examples of our company’s commitment to deliver developed lots on time, and on budget, to the industry’s premier home builders.”

Homes at North Village will include five product types to be offered by three different home builders, and will be designed to address the needs of both entry-level and first-time move-up buyers. The remaining home sites are expected to close escrow in the coming months, with model homes for the new neighborhoods opening by the middle of 2018. Prices will likely initially range from the mid-$300,000s to the $500,000s.

The timing of these releases is expected to help address the pent-up demand for new housing in the Sacramento area. As of November 2017, the Sacramento Association of Realtors® reported just 1.7 months of for-sale housing inventory versus 3.4 months nationally. In general, a supply of six months is typically considered balanced. At the same time, the group reported a median single-family home sale price of $348,250, up 7.2 percent over the previous year and almost 79 percent higher since the same month of 2012.

A primary factor driving the increase in home prices is the lack of new housing. Between 2012 and 2016, based on building permit totals from the Census Bureau, population estimates from the California Department of Finance and an average household size of 2.7 persons, the four-county Sacramento Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) averaged just over 5,000 permits per year against a need for about 7,800. In total, just from this five-year period alone, potential housing demand outpaced supply by over 14,000 units.

“To address this chronic housing shortage, The True Life Companies is investing heavily in the Sacramento region, with over 700 future home sites in our pipeline,” said Scott Clark, Chairman and CEO, TTLC. “We’re also looking to convert under-utilized infill properties to a residential use, thereby helping to meet the immediate demand for buildable lots by home builders, homebuyers, and local municipalities.”

Sterling Meadows is adjacent to The Outlet Collection at Elk Grove, a regional retail center expected to be completed in 2018, and which will include over 100 shops as well as a 14-screen movie theater, outdoor dining and a children’s play area. Also in planning next door to The Outlet Collection is the Wilton Rancheria Resort casino, which will include a 12-story, 302-room hotel and spa, convention center, six restaurants and bars as well as a 110,260-square-foot gaming floor. Located just one quarter-mile from Highway 99, residents of the community will enjoy an easy commute to job centers throughout the Sacramento area.

At Sterling Meadows itself, work is already underway on a unique community park with a music theme developed in collaboration with the local Community Services District. With over $5 million invested, the 13.7-acre park will open in 2018 and include facilities for soccer, basketball, tennis, volleyball, fitness stations and a tot lot, but that’s just the start.

“In order to create a unique sense of place for the entire community, the music theme is present throughout the park, with interior pathways resembling the treble cleft, which is a key musical element,” explained Aidan. “Even the play areas and water play areas are envisioned to contain music-themed equipment, while both the plazas and water play areas will have musical notes and symbols inlaid into the pavement.”

In order to carry the theme beyond the park, street names are also tied to music, with the exception of one key street to be named for a fallen military veteran of Elk Grove.

Future home site development at Sterling Meadows is also included in the South Village, with a total of 486 lots, which TTLC is planning to develop and market for sale starting in 2018.

“With national new home sales recently rising by the largest amount in 25 years and the highest total in over 10 years, we are well-positioned to provide ongoing home site inventory to the industry’s best builders,” added Clark.

The True Life Companies is composed of a team of highly successful residential real estate professionals who work together with property owners, municipalities, and local stakeholders to address the need for sustainable housing options in high-need communities. The company seeks to establish suburban and urban infill housing options that are the result of insightful research, innovative planning and creative collaboration. TTLC is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with offices in Folsom, California; San Ramon, California; and Scottsdale, Arizona.

For more information regarding TTLC's property portfolio, please visit www.TheTrueLifeCompanies.com.

[PennyP1cker]

We have talked a few times recently about Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., which got favorable financing from Blackstone Group's GSO Capital Partners through some credit-default-swap market machinations. GSO had bought CDS protection that would pay off if Hovnanian defaulted. Hovnanian will refinance its debt with a series of new instruments, including a favorable new term loan from GSO but also some new 22-year bonds with a comically below-market interest rate of 5 percent, which should trade at something like 50 cents on the dollar. Those bonds -- along with more valuable bonds, adding up to an attractive total package -- will be issued in exchange for some of its old bonds, pushing out its debt maturities and relieving some of its financial pressure.

But it also plans to buy (through an affiliate) $26 million worth of the old bonds, keep them outstanding, and default on an interest payment just to those bonds. Hovnanian will default on a payment it owes to itself, but keep paying off all of its external bondholders. This shouldn't bother the bondholders, but it should trigger the credit-default swaps. And because some of the new bonds will be worth something like 50 cents on the dollar, those credit-default swaps (which pay out more the less Hovnanian's bonds are worth) should be worth a lot. GSO will make a nice profit on its CDS, and will use some of that profit to subsidize some cheap financing for Hovnanian.

I once wrote about it:

It's quite a trade! One thing that is elegant about it is that it doesn't require Hovnanian to "really" default: It has to miss an interest payment, but only an interest payment due to its own affiliate. (Outsiders who keep the 8 percent bonds after the exchange offer will still get paid.) No third-party creditor will be harmed by the default, so no bond or loan investor will have any cause to complain, or to refuse to finance Hovnanian in the future, or to sue Hovnanian's directors for defaulting in bad faith. The only people harmed by these machinations will be the people who wrote credit-default swaps -- and I suppose it is reasonable for Hovnanian not to care too much about what they think.

That was a bit hasty: You can get sued for anything. And so last week Solus Alternative Asset Management LP, a hedge fund that wrote credit-default swaps on Hovnanian, sued the company, its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, and GSO, for ... something? The problem is that Hovnanian really isn't doing anything to Solus. Solus wrote some CDS on Hovnanian, but Hovnanian wasn't a party to that CDS and has no obligations to Solus under it. So the lawsuit consists of a lot of hand-waving and shouting about fraud. "The Defendants, directly and indirectly, by the use, means, or instrumentalities of interstate commerce and/or of the mails, engaged in deceptive or manipulative acts to engineer a fraudulent, sham payment default by Hovnanian and the issuance of a Rigged Bond whose off-market terms will drive its price well below par and result in an inflated recovery on Hovnanian CDS contracts," says the complaint, to which Hovnanian might reasonably respond "yeah what of it?" Hovnanian isn't defaulting, fraudulently or otherwise, on a payment owed to Solus; it's not forcing Solus to buy any bonds, rigged or otherwise. Solus's objection is strangely aesthetic: Hovnanian's new bonds are so ridiculous that they just shouldn't be allowed to exist.

To put the absurdity of the Rigged Bond into perspective, there is not a single high-yield issuer rated by Moody’s or S&P with Hovnanian’s credit rating (or worse) that has outstanding unsecured debt maturing more than 10 years in the future, let alone the 22-year maturity proposed for the Rigged Bond. Any arms-length investor willing to lend money to a company for that extended length of time typically demands a higher interest rate to compensate them for committing capital for that long; yet, the annual interest rate on the Rigged Bond is half of the 10% interest rate on Hovnanian’s own secured bonds that would mature eighteen years before the Rigged Bond. Indeed, given these wildly off-market terms, credit analysts at global investment banks have speculated that the Rigged Bond will trade at no more than 50 cents on the dollar while the company’s legitimate unsecured bonds are currently trading around par.

Perhaps more seriously, there is a claim that Hovnanian's exchange offer documents are misleading, "disclosing obliquely that its agreement to default on interest owed on its notes 'may' trigger a credit event when, in fact, the true but concealed nature and purpose of the transaction is a commercial bribe intended to trigger a CDS credit event for the sole purpose of enriching GSO in exchange for the provision of below-market financing."

"The intended effect of Hovnanian’s complicity in GSO’s scheme," says Solus, "is to deliver hundreds of millions of dollars of illicit CDS payouts to GSO and other CDS protection buyers at the direct expense of innocent CDS protection sellers, like Solus." There is a lot of that sort of emotional appeal: Think of the poor innocent CDS protection sellers! "In selling CDS protection on Hovnanian debt," the complaint says, "Solus relied upon a normally functioning market in which payment defaults occur as a result of actual financial distress, and borrowers endeavor to abide by their contractual obligations." But again that is no concern of Hovnanian's. Hovnanian didn't invent the CDS market, or buy or sell any CDS itself. Hovnanian never asked Solus or anyone else to sell CDS on itself; Hovnanian would have been perfectly happy if anyone who had wanted to invest in its credit had just bought its bonds rather than entering into zero-sum third-party derivative side bets. But they entered into the side bets, and GSO found a way to turn those bets into money for Hovnanian (and GSO), and Hovnanian took it. It's hard to see why it wouldn't.

[PennyP1cker]

Global Credit Research - 05 Feb 2018

New York, February 05, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. ("Hovnanian") Corporate Family Rating to Caa1 from Caa2 as the company has made strides in reducing its near-to-midterm refinancing risk and Moody's believes that Hovnanian generates sufficient unleveraged free cash flow to cover its interest burden in the next 12-18 months. The company's speculative-grade liquidity rating was upgraded to SGL-3 from SGL-4 to indicate the improvement in its liquidity profile.

In conjunction with this rating action, Moody's also downgraded the company's Probability of Default to Ca-PD/LD in order to indicate the distressed exchange that took place among the company and the holders of its 7% Senior Notes due 2019 and 8% Senior Notes due 2019. We anticipate to upgrade the Probability of Default Rating to Caa1 shortly.

Moody's also assigned Caa3 ratings to the K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s (K.Hovnanian) new unsecured notes: 13.5% $90.5MM due 2026 and 5% $90.1MM due 2040. The notes, along with cash on hand, will be used to execute the distressed change.

The following rating actions were taken:

Downgrades:

..Issuer: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

.... Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to Ca-PD/LD from Caa1-PD

Upgrades:

..Issuer: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, Upgraded to SGL-3 from SGL-4

.... Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to Caa1 from Caa2

..Issuer: K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to B2 (LGD2) from B3 (LGD3)

Assignments:

..Issuer: K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Senior Unsecured Bank Credit Facility, Assigned Caa3 (LGD6)

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Assigned Caa3 (LGD6)

Affirmations:

..Issuer: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Pref. Stock Preferred Stock, Affirmed Ca (LGD6)

..Issuer: K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Affirmed B2 (LGD2)

....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Caa2 (LGD4)

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture due 2019, Affirmed Caa3 (LGD6)

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Outlook, Remains Stable

..Issuer: K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

....Outlook, Remains Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

The upgrade of the Corporate Family Rating to Caa1 from Caa2 recognizes Hovnanian's significantly improved debt maturity profile with the nearest significant maturity coming up in 2021. Furthermore, Hovnanian is anticipated to generate sufficient unleveraged cash flow, as it can pair back land purchases if need be, in 2018 to cover its interest payments. Homebuilding EBIT interest coverage is anticipated to be between 1x-1.4x in 2018.

At the same time, the rating continues to be pressured by the reduction in the revenue base and debt to capitalization in excess of 100%. However, despite declining revenues and community count, the company has shown contracts per community increase. For the 4Q2017, they were up 10% YoY.

The Speculative-Grade Liquidity (SGL) Rating of SGL-3 reflects Hovnanian's adequate liquidity profile over the next 12 to 18 months.

The SGL Rating takes into consideration internal liquidity, external liquidity, covenant compliance, and alternate liquidity. Hovnanian's internal liquidity is supported by its $463 million of cash on hand as of October 31, 2017. For 2018, we anticipate the cash balance to be around $213 million. The company has a $125 million revolving credit facility and we anticipate Hovnanian to have about $52 million of borrowings outstanding under it. Hovnanian is not subject to any financial maintenance covenants. Alternate sources of liquidity are limited.

The stable outlook is predicated on the successful completion of this transaction.

The ratings could be upgraded if the company's debt to capitalization improves to below 80%, interest coverage improves to above 1.5x, and its liquidity shows improvement as well.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Homebuilding And Property Development Industry published in January 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Established in 1959 and headquartered in Red Bank, New Jersey, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. ("Hovnanian") designs, constructs and markets single-family detached homes and attached condominium apartments and townhouses. Homebuilding revenues for the last twelve months ended Oct 31, 2017 were approximately $1.8 billion.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Tiina Siilaberg
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.

[dude iligence]

HOV $3.1 Ascending Triple Top Breakout




re
Bought HOV $1.64-.68 on and around the 200ma. Not much excitement in housing stocks right now. buying this for long term holding. Home ownership is at the lowest level in 50 years. There is shortages in many of the major cities. I owned HOV prior to the housing boom about 15 years ago. I traded it around $4. HOV went to over $500 per share split adjusted at the height of the housing boom. They were not an industry leader then and they aren't now but a rising tide lifts all boats. I looked at the charts of the home builders LEN TOL PHM are down about 50% from their former highs. Their upside potential is not as great as HOV's. If Trump gets elected I expect their to be a building boom in many of the broken cities run down by democrats. If Hilary get elected just sell it and put the money to trading 3X etfs. I like HOV chart for its upside potential for multi-bagger. When I owned it at $4 I would have never thought it could or would go to over $500 per share. Its been 10 years since the housing boom peaked, economic cycle moves up then down then up again.


We can all thank Trump for our gains in HOV and future gains

[detearing]

Riding 52 week highs!
HOV $$$$

[detearing]

Looking good today. Holding a ton of HOV $$$$

[detearing]

HOV doing very well and can jump very quickly from past experience.

[detearing]

Looking mighty good here...average at $1.87...holding quite a bit here on HOV. Best homebuilder out there, imo.