Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
So far, the action in China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) has followed the bullish script that we have discussed since Sunday's Chart Video Update. We noted in that video that IF the Shanghai Composite did indeed establish a major bullish signal exhibited by a monthly (July) upside reversal, then a significant recovery rally in the China equity indices should have a supportive impact on some components of the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI), which exhibits a stronger pattern than the Shanghai.
Today CHL thrust out of its multi-month base pattern, and should be on its way towards a minimal upside target of 54.00, and possibly 56.00 thereafter. Only a decline that retraces all of today's gains, and presses the price structure back into the gap area beneath 51.80 into the closing bell will begin to compromise the timing of the anticipated upside follow-through. MJP 8/04/10 11:55 AM ET (52.33/34)
http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/8/2010/4/
We have to be impressed with the market's resiliency today after hitting new recovery highs, because weakness thereafter has been very much contained, at least so far. That said, however, I am "concerned" about the "trap-like" pattern that has developed in the hourly Volality Index (VIX). Let's notice that the VIX made multi-month lows this morning at 22.70, but has since climbed back above 23.20, which so far has "trapped" VIX bears (SPX bulls).
In the event the SPX rolls over into a deeper correction later this afternoon or in overnight trading, and the VIX climbs above 24.70/80, the VIX will have put in a powerful upside reversal immediately after violating a major Double Bottom June-July low. Such a scenario is all the more likely given the glaring downside failure of RSI momentum to confirm the multi-month low in the VIX. Let's watch this relationship closely in the upcoming hours.
Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2010/27/
From Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader.com: Goldman Sachs (GS) has a chance to exert considerable influence on the markets this afternoon, despite earnings after the bell for AAPL and YHOO. But which direction?
Yes, GS has climbed 4% off of this morning's low at 140 (to 146), but must hurdle and sustain above 147.00-148.00 to trigger upside continuation that should retest 154.00 on the way to 160.00. Conversely, inability of GS to hurdle key resistance followed by a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 144.00 will argue for a revisit of today's "turn area" between 142.00 and 140.00.
Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2010/20/
From Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader: What is fascinating about the enclosed daily charts of spot gold and nearby 10-year T-note futures is that both major trends remain very much intact and dominant despite the recent weakness. In fact, the weakness has NOT violated any meaningful prior pivot low -- in gold at the May 21 low of 1165.74 and in the T-notes at the June 21 low of 119-24.
Purely from a technical perspective, the 6.5% decline in gold and the 1.5% decline in T-notes appear to be "normal, minor" corrections within the larger uptrends. To listen to bond and stock market pundits claim that a mass exodus out of bonds and, to a lesser extent, out of gold will now drive equity prices much higher seems to belie what these charts are telling us -- that the flight to safety trade is undergoing a pause that refreshes, rather than a total reversal...at least for now.
Chartwork at
http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2010/14/
Mike Paulenoff notes:
While the major market indices climb, Apple (AAPL) plunges in reaction to continued bad PR about iPhone4 and news this morning from AP (in USA Today) that a Federal Judge has given the OK for a monopoly abuse lawsuit against Apple and AT&T (T). AAPL has declined as much as $10, but the loss has stabilized at $8 for now.
Let's notice that the weakness has been contained above the near-term support line from the May 21 low (231.35), which cuts across the price axis at 245.70. A break of the trendline will argue for a test of critical support at 242.30/00, which if violated has the potential to send AAPL to 210-200 thereafter.
Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2010/13/
From our Charts of the Day video last night...
Applied Signal Technology, Inc. (APSG), a stock I’ve been watching for a while, is starting to emerge and looks like it has a lot of promise here. The chart pattern shows that it’s been in a substantial downtrend from near the 27 range down to 17 over the last several months. The declining topsline was broken with a price-volume surge and breakaway gap a week ago. The stock pulled back in a nice little flag pattern and today popped 62 cents, or 3.2%, but came right up to overhead resistance from the April and June highs. A breakout may be occurring. Secondary resistance at 21.27 will be watched carefully for a more important breakout. If that occurs, I expect the stock to get up to the mid-20s short-term.
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA) had a nice snapback day, up 25 cents, or 6.9%, on 6.6 million shares. The OBV and Money Stream are making new highs, and the other technicals are improving. We’re up against the 4.00 lateral price resistance going back to November and December. A breakout from here could lead to a thrust that takes this stock up to my next trading target at the 5 1/2 – 6 zone to test the September highs.
Metropolitan Health Networks Inc. (MDF) has formed a nice rising channel, and over the last six or seven weeks has formed a really orderly pullback retracement flag-type pattern with good technicals during that process. That leads me to believe more upside is due, and my target is up around 5 1/2-3/4, or a couple points away from where we are now.
VIVUS Inc. (VVUS) had a big snapback in the last couple sessions. Big volume came into it yesterday, and a follow-through today took out the 50-day moving average as well as the declining topsline. Today was a significant day technically. It took out two key levels of overhead resistance with heavy volume. I’m looking for a follow-through that quickly gets up to 12 3/4, maybe as high as the 13.50-.65 zone. That’s the short-term target, but beyond that, if it blows through there, we could see something in the mid to maybe high teens.
More Charts of the Day in our video at http://www.thetechtrader.com/chartofday/7/2010/8/
If we look at arguably the most constructive chart of all, Apple (AAPL), there is no evidence yet of a topping pattern, unlike in Ford (F), a stock we had liked for some time and discussed earlier today for our subscribers. In fact, all of the action in AAPL since Monday's new all-time high at 279.01 has the look of a high-level bullish consolidation-continuation pattern, which should resolve itself to the upside in a thrust to new highs. The chart projects into the 280-83 target zone, prior to a significant correction that points towards 240 and possibly 210/00.
At this juncture, only a decline and close below 265 will indicate that a correction of significance is already in progress. Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/6/2010/23/
Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RNN) made a nice move Tuesday. It had a real strong move in March and April, backed off in a declining channel, popped five days ago, pulled back in a 2-day flag, and Tuesday it popped 34 cents or 24% on 4 3/4 million shares. An extension through resistance at around 1.75 could get it running back up to my target around the 31/2 area or double from where it is.
RNN and 6 other long ideas are featured in Harry Boxer's Charts of the Day video at:
http://ih.advfn.com/videos/stock-chart/arst-lgl-mela-rnn-stock-charts-harry-boxer-thetechtrader-com_8x_PjQoPDlY
Tony Hayward the BP CEO went to a yacht race over the weekend. With all the problems he's causing, it almost seems like he is short BP stock.
British Petroleum (NYSE: BP) gapped down about 4% this morning (pre-market) into new low territory. Let's have a look at my long-term weekly chart work.
BP closed yesterday at 30.33 but hit a new "crisis low" at 28.95 in pre-market trading and now is trading at 29.42. My pattern analysis is warning me to expect 28 to 26 (27 optimally) prior to a meaningful recovery rally (that lasts more than 2 hours). That rally should be able to revisit massive resistance between 33.50 and 35.00, after which BP should resume its powerful and dominant downtrend on the way to 22.00.
http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/6/2010/22/
Harry Boxer posts his top "Boxer Shorts" to watch in a market breakdown in his video chart analysis at: http://ih.advfn.com/videos/stock-chart/aixg-avp-bec-bio-stock-charts-harry-boxer-thetechtrader-com_FnH4e6o5_kc
These include: Aixtron Aktiengesellschaft (AIXG), Avon Products Inc. (AVP), Beckman Coulter Inc. (BEC), Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), BP Exploration plc (BP), Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX), Duoyuan Global Water Inc. (DGW), Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO), Dril-Quip, Inc. (DRQ), Fuqi International, Inc. (FUQI), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Google Inc. (GOOG), Global Payments Inc. (GPN), Goldman Sachs (GS), IPC The Hospitalist Company, Inc. (IPCM), Jinpan International Ltd. (JST), Contango Oil & Gas Company (MCF), Monsanto Company (MON), MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR), Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL), NCI, Inc. (NCIT), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Ttl Ret Idx ETN (OIL), Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN), Perfect World Co., Ltd. (PWRD), Transocean Ltd. (RIG), Sohu.com Inc. (SOHU), Student Loan Corp. (STU), Telvent Git S.A. (TLVT), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH), Transcend Services, Inc. (TRCR), Unisys Corporation (UIS), Universal Corporation (UVV), WellPoint Inc. (WLP).
Mike Paulenoff assesses the impact of the China yuan news in his Charts of the Week video, noting: "If the Chinese situation is the bellwether of a start of a new up-cycle in the global economy, or the renewal of an up-cycle, then commodities will have to move." Unfortunately, commodity charts don't suggest much upside at the moment. http://ih.advfn.com/videos/stock-chart/how-commodity-charts-are-reacting-or-not-to-china-currency-news_Qhx9uboyxWo
Followers
|
2
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
13
|
Created
|
06/21/10
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator thetechtrader | |||
Assistants |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |