Guaranty Financial Group Inc. (fka GFGFQ) (fka )

[Hammer1]

Where do we go from here. Very VOLITILE STOCK. Hammer

[storm12]

GAME OVER:

Big Texas bank on verge of failure
Guaranty Bank, which counts Carl Icahn as one if its backers, is teetering on the edge of insolvency. But it may not be easy for regulators to find a buyer.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Guaranty Bank is hardly a household name. But the Austin, Texas-based thrift's looming failure is shaping up as a big headache for bank supervisors -- not to mention a black eye for Carl Icahn and others in the smart money set.

Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed.

Guaranty has $13.4 billion in assets and operates 160 branches in Texas and California -- two of the three best banking markets in the nation, thanks to their size and population growth.

But the bank's capital problems and its smallish, scattered network of branches could detract from Guaranty's appeal, making it tough for regulators to find a buyer quickly -- or without substantial federal subsidies.

"This may not be closed as quickly as you think, since it will require bids and rebids," said Miami banking consultant Ken Thomas.

That means resolving Guaranty's failure is likely to be costly to the FDIC's deposit insurance fund, whose balance is at its lowest point in almost two decades.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. isn't the only one taking its lumps. So have some big investors.

Shares of the bank's parent, Guaranty Financial, have dropped 97% since a group led by billionaire Texas hotel mogul Robert Rowling and Icahn, the renowned New York corporate raider, poured $600 million into the company in June 2008.

Other big Guaranty holders whose stakes stand to be wiped out include hedge fund managers David Einhorn, who was among the most persistent skeptics of Lehman Brothers before its collapse, and Dan Loeb.

"Relatively low franchise value and the fact that two big money investors already got burned on this bank may suggest less interest than with BankUnited," said Thomas, referring to the Florida thrift that failed in May and was bought by a group of private equity investors.

BankUnited had half as many branches and operated in only one state, but had a strong competitive position in the most lucrative counties -- something Guaranty lacks.

Despite BankUnited's relative attractiveness, its sale to investors led by vulture investor Wilbur Ross was hardly a walkover for the FDIC. The deal cost the FDIC insurance fund $4.9 billion.

A big tab on Guaranty would be costly to the deposit fund, whose balance was $13 billion at the end of the first quarter. The FDIC has estimated failure costs on cases since then at $11.2 billion.

A spokesman for the FDIC stresses that it has already set aside an additional $22 billion for failure-related costs in 2009, and adds that congressional action this spring gave the agency access to $500 billion in Treasury credit.

Though Guaranty has been around since 1988, it came public less than two years ago. Guaranty was part of the Temple-Inland (TIN) cardboard-box conglomerate until Icahn pressured the company to split up at the end of 2007. Guaranty shares were then distributed to Temple-Inland holders.

Guaranty's chief executive at the time, Ken Dubuque, assured investors that despite the gale force winds sweeping the financial world, the bank would be safe.

"We're keenly aware of the importance of good credit, disciplines and effective risk management, in good times and in difficult times," he said on the bank's first earnings conference call in February 2008.

But Guaranty's risk management soon was found wanting. The bank aimed to expand beyond lending to the builders of office buildings, shopping centers and houses to new areas such as small business and corporate energy lending.

Because its thrift charter obliges Guaranty to keep 70% of its assets in housing-related investments, the bank matched growth in other areas with expanded investments in housing. That, Dubuque said, is how the bank ended up taking on a giant portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, backed largely by option adjustable-rate mortgages in California and Texas.

[Jd2001]

Next resistance 0.47, once hit, it will be 0.61, then back to 0.78. Cum before the deal hit. May not be this Week, it will only happen the earliest Next Wednesday.

GFG will not be let go, but Corus will mostly be sacrified as the impact to public is minimal. Icahn will not allow his investment down the drain as smart people will figure out.

Buy GFG, avoid Corus totally.

[Jd2001]

FDIC will not let another big Bank failure in such a short period. Anyway, the bids have already started since early June. There will not be any surprise. Bidding result will be announced soon with the help of FDIC to smoothen the "takeover".

GFG= Gold for Gold

[buzzbomb]

dont they have buyer?

[storm12]

My cousin work for Mellon Bank and other two banks. He said..GFG will fill bancrupcy....

[storm12]

I believe that GFG will file bankruptcy soon...Friday MAYBE!!!

[Enterprising Investor]

Closed Bank transaction almost a certainty.

Why? GFG's core capital ratio at 3/31/09 was negative 5.72 percent. This equates to equity being negative about $1B. It was probably worse at 6/30/09.

[storm12]

TODAY: $ .27 low...

[iwant1mil]

Bids are starting to roll in. GFG is going to be worth more than Gold ----------

UDPATE 1-Guaranty Financial draws bid -- sources
Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:34pm EDT
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* Consortium led by Gerald Ford bids -- source
* Consortium bids despite FDIC rule uncertainty -- sources

* Other bids expected by Tues. deadline -- sources

By Megan Davies and Paritosh Bansal

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - A consortium that is led by financial services executive Gerald Ford and includes several private equity firms submitted a bid for troubled bank Guaranty Financial (GFG.N), despite uncertainty over U.S. regulation guidelines, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

It was unclear how many offers were submitted in total by Tuesday's deadline for bids, but sources said that there were also expected to be bids from other parties.

The Ford consortium includes Blackstone Group (BX.N), Carlyle Group [CYL.UL], Oak Hill Capital and TPG [TPG.UL], the sources said.

The Financial Times reported on Monday that Canada's Toronto Dominion (TD.TO) and JPMorgan (JPM.N) had expressed interest in Guaranty. Another reported to have been interested is U.S. Bancorp.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation recently published tough proposals for private capital investors in failed banks and the industry is awaiting final guidelines from the U.S. regulator.

It was unclear how the Ford-led bid had been structured amid the uncertainty over the proposed FDIC guidelines.

However, private equity executives and observers have previously said that it would be unlikely any deal would be inked in accordance with the original guidelines proposed, which they view as too harsh.

The guidelines include a proposal that banks to be bought by private equity have a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 15 percent, far higher than the 5 percent required of well-capitalized banks. That is widely expected to be reduced when the FDIC publishes its final guidelines, industry sources have previously told Reuters. (Reporting by Megan Davies and Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Gary Hill)

[storm12]

In my opinion GFG will filing bankruptcy!!!!!

[Jd2001]

Thanks for sharing....I have great faith in GFG....looks like the FORD bid will go through...there is always a loophole in the FDIC tight regulation.

[Enterprising Investor]

Guaranty Financial draws bid -sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/americasMergersNews/idUSWEN259120090818

[storm12]

SELL VOL. near 10M shares...

[storm12]

Guaranty Financial: Likely Won't Be Able To Stay Alive..

$ 0,0 coming soon!!!!

Chapter 7..*maybe*

[ARBITRARY & CAPRICIOUS]

PR tonight not good for the am. Glad I exited this morning.

[HopeUnderstand]

I'm in this for a few shares. **Maybe** this won't be like the other banks -- I'll risk a few bucks just in case it isn't.

JMO.
GLTA Longs!

[Fast Flyer 03]

Wrong!! BKUNQ still has the corp to fall back on. All those loans at BKUNQ, are owned by the Corp thats why the stock is still heading up. They only sold the FDIC insured accounts off. They will have to take Bank United Corp to court to get those freed up!!! Big difference but then why would you know. And I was never right there along side you!

[ABIGIDIOT]

lol... well... at least yu realize the errors of your ways with bkunq. you were singing a different song there.

right along with me.

[Fast Flyer 03]

It will be like all the rest. The FDIC will sieze Guaranty, then sell off all the assets in a private deal and then this stock will float in bankruptcy slowly heading to the worthless abyss. See BKUNQ,TMCV,Colonial Bank, its the same MO over and over again by the Feds,(FDIC) you will never know when it hits. But after the close of trading course. The buyer will only agree to the sale as long as the shareholders are left out of the deal. And the FDIC is always more than ready to oblige!!!!

[Seminole Red]

Deadline looms for Guaranty bids
By Julie MacIntosh, Henny Sender and Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: August 16 2009 22:30 | Last updated: August 16 2009 22:30

US banking regulators have asked prospective buyers of Guaranty Financial, a struggling Texas bank with $14bn in assets, to submit bids for the group by Monday, according to people close to the matter.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is helping to manage the attempted sale of Guaranty, which last month said it was likely to join the lengthening list of banks that have failed this year.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
In depth: US banks - Dec-12US regulators close Colonial - Aug-15Colonial BancGroup caught up in probe - Aug-05Banks make $38bn from overdraft fees - Aug-09Guaranty’s fate has become intertwined in recent weeks with that of Colonial Bank, an Alabama-based bank that was forcibly closed on Friday and largely sold to BB&T, another regional bank, in an FDIC-backed deal.

The FDIC, which is juggling failing banks around the US in an effort to minimise the fallout to consumers, had initially wanted to resolve Guaranty’s problems before Colonial’s by arranging a sale of Guaranty, which is struggling under the weight of burgeoning losses on homebuilder loans and mortgage-backed securities.

But regulators’ concerns over Colonial’s instability recently overtook their worries about Guaranty, because of Colonial’s deteriorating credit quality and its role in two federal investigations, so regulators contacted bidders and asked for offers for Colonial last week.

Regulators have been hoping that three banks that had bid for Colonial – Canada’s Toronto Dominion, JPMorgan and Spain’s BBVA – would step in instead as bidders for Guaranty.

People close to the matter said TD and JPMorgan had expressed interest in Guaranty, which has also drawn interest from other regional banks.

Guaranty’s assets were not seen by banking experts as a direct substitute for Colonial’s higher-quality commercial banking assets, but Guaranty’s strong presence in Texas could draw interest from bidders.

At least one private equity consortium, which includes Blackstone, Carlyle, Oak Hill Capital, TPG and Gerald Ford, is considering a bid for Guaranty.

The FDIC, however, has long made clear that it prefers other banks as buyers of troubled financial institutions rather than private equity firms.

Heading into the weekend, the private equity firms had not been given access to Guaranty’s confidential financial data.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

[Seminole Red]

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. banking regulators have asked prospective buyers of struggling Texas bank Guaranty Financial Group (GFG.N) to submit bids by Monday, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Regulators are hoping that three banks that had bid for Colonial Bank -- Canada's Toronto Dominion (TD.TO), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Spain's BBVA (BBVA.MC) -- will step in to bid for Guaranty, the paper reported on its website on Sunday.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp on Friday shuttered Alabama lender Colonial. About $22 billion of Colonial's assets will be sold to BB&T Corp (BBT.N), a southeast regional bank.

JPMorgan and TD had expressed interest in Guaranty, which has also drawn interest from other regional banks, the paper reported, citing unidentified sources.

A private equity consortium, which includes Blackstone Group LP (BX.N), Carlyle [CYL.UL], Oak Hill Capital, TPG and the Texas banker Gerald Ford, is also considering a bid for Guaranty, the paper reported.

But the buyout firms had not been given access to Guaranty's confidential financial data heading into the weekend, according to the report.

Guaranty is the second-largest publicly traded bank in Texas, with about $16 billion in assets, according to its website.

Last month, the lender said there was "substantial doubt" that it can continue as a going concern after loan losses and write-downs left it short of capital.

A source told Reuters at the time the bank was in talks with at least one investor group for a recapitalization.

Representatives from Guaranty, JPMorgan, Toronto Dominion, Blackstone, Carlyle and Oak Hill Capital were not immediately available for comment. A TPG spokesman declined to comment.

[joey13]

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[Enterprising Investor]

There are three types of FDIC involvement:

Open Bank, Bridge Bank and Closed Bank.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/managing/

[nupetrader]

question ... what is the difference between what happened to CNB and whats going on with GFG? If the FDIC siezes control of GFG then yes our shares will be worth nothing. But it sounds to me that the FDIC is overseeing the sale and not taking control of the bank and selling off its pieces.

[ABIGIDIOT]

shake n bake.

[nupetrader]

why is this going down even after we have news that there will be a buyer announced by next week???????

[nupetrader]

we will have a decision on who the bank is by the 21st of this month

http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/08/guaranty_to_pick_a_buyer_next.php

[Enterprising Investor]

Does anyone trust the New York Times?

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/pe-firms-banks-circle-guaranty-financial/

[nupetrader]

looks like we spoke too soon ...

[VERITAS77]

WOW.. .72
========
Posted by: VERITAS77 Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 3:37:04 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 128 [Send a link via email]

nice volume .25

[andre1234]

wow, nice run.

[daytrader2008]

How do you spell relief?

GFG

[Enterprising Investor]

Blackstone, U.S. Bancorp, Ford May Bid for Ailing Guaranty Bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=GFG%3AUS&sid=a9U2i3YXd1UE

[inflationista]

holy shitake mushrooms -

[Enterprising Investor]

I can afford to stand by my comments.

In Texas, we have a saying- "Remember the Alamo".

When it comes to the FDIC, I suggest "Remember Indymac, WaMu, BankUnited...".

[Peter2004]

Nice try.

[inflationista]

yeah, looks like someone, maybe ole icahn himself, put the squeeze on -

the company has come out in PRs saying the FDIC is getting involved -

that means the shares go to the garbage and the assets go to the buyer to pay off the FDIC -

[Enterprising Investor]

Short covering caused by "ignorant investors" buying.

The FDIC will be taking over this bank shortly. Anyone holding shares will find out sooner or later the value is near $0.

[Enterprising Investor]

Guaranty Bank may have a buyer soon, analysts say

12:00 AM CDT on Wednesday, August 12, 2009
By BRENDAN CASE / The Dallas Morning News

A number of investors are considering bids for the assets of Guaranty Bank and federal regulators could announce a winner by next week, said banking industry executives familiar with the bidding process.

"Today that's the timeline, but that could change," said Dan Bass, a Houston-based managing director of Carson Medlin Co., an investment banking firm.

Another Texas banking executive, who asked not to be named, also said Tuesday that a winner in the bidding process could be announced by next week.

A spokesman for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. declined to comment.

Bass and other analysts speculated that the list of potential bidders could include Gerald Ford, a Dallas billionaire who built his fortune in banking; BBVA Compass, a unit of Spanish bank giant BBVA; and a group of investors that earlier this year bought IndyMac, a Pasadena, Calif., bank that failed last year.

"I think the Ford group is definitely one of the front-runners," he said. "Ford no doubt, and BBVA Compass. And the private equity groups that bought IndyMac."

Ford and a spokeswoman for OneWest Bank, the new name of IndyMac, could not be reached for comment. A spokesman for BBVA Compass declined to comment.

Analysts said other potential bidders include Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, parent of U.S. Bank, and Iberiabank Corp., the Lafayette, La., parent of Iberiabank. Executives at both firms declined to comment.

Also in the running, according to a Tuesday report by Bloomberg News, is the Blackstone Group LP, a high-profile private equity firm based in New York. A Blackstone spokesman declined to comment.

"The Ford group's interest in Guaranty has been speculated for a while," said Curtis Carpenter, managing director of Sheshunoff & Co. Investment Banking in Austin, referring to Gerald Ford.

"I think he's got the resources to pull off a transaction of this size, as would U.S. Bancorp and Blackstone," Carpenter said.

Guaranty Bank is "critically undercapitalized" after recent write-downs related to its mortgage-backed securities portfolio, according to a regulatory filing last month by its parent, Guaranty Financial Group Inc. Guaranty's primary shareholders are unwilling to inject additional capital, the company said.

"In light of these developments, the company believes that it is probable that it will not be able to continue as a going concern," Guaranty said.

Guaranty's shareholders include Dallas billionaire Robert Rowling and New York billionaire Carl Icahn. Guaranty Bank, which had assets of $13.4 billion as of March 31, is technically based in Austin, but its top executives work in Dallas.

Guaranty has about 160 branches in Texas and California. About 100 of them are in Texas. It's unclear if regulators would sell the bank as a whole or in pieces.

"Texas would be a terrific state for any acquirer," said Stephen Skaggs, president of the Bank Advisory Group LLC in Austin.

"People have perceived that Texas has a demographic profile that would result in growth that would surpass the nation's," he said. "That proved to be true throughout the late '90s and early 2000s.

"Even today, while there's going to be some hiccups, I don't think the hiccups are going to be nearly as severe here as in Florida and California," Skaggs said.

[The Night Stalker]

hey any reason why this has ran so much?

[VERITAS77]

nice volume

[PennyJones]

AH action to .26 x 360k.

[3CTraderIsBack]

News..looks like some buyers poped up for the assests. Looks like it's over for them.

[Enterprising Investor]

I was one of the luckier ones today.

My shares were sold at $.26 near the open.

The shares were acquired as a result of Carl Icahn's destruction of TIN into New TIN, FOR and GFG. My GFG basis was $23.326 per share.

Guaranty Bank was created in 1988 as a Southwest Plan thrift. It was formed from three insolvent thrifts - Delta Savings of Alvin, First Federal Savings of Austin and Guaranty Federal Savings in Dallas.

[Enterprising Investor]

Despite Guaranty woes, Texas banking still looks steady.

"The FDIC is working to find a buyer for the bank and its closure could take place within days, said Jim Gardner, chairman of Commerce Street Capital, a bank consulting firm in Dallas."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6562327.html

[Enterprising Investor]

Long GFG? Beware of Fridays.

[Dolfandave]

Setting aside the price action the last two days do you still feel that way? This stock seems very risky. One called it a range of either 0 to .58 depending of if we get a buyer or not. Even if GFG gets a buyer it is not necessarily out of the woods based on what the purchase stipulations are.

[gchar19845]

This was some good information, thanks!

[Yukii]

Look's like there is some new's from Yesterday.

http://www.itemonline.com/local/local_story_217221940.html

Good luck 2 all of us