Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE)

[squidster]

I read the article when it came out and decided to jump back into ETHE
The rationale of trading at a discount because Grayscale won't offer a redemption is ludicrous. Grayscale has never offered offered a redemption for ETHE and it's traded at a premium of 10X
The discount will go away when the lemmings decide its safe to go back in the water...
GL

[KICK1]

Hey squidster, I know what you mean it’s been rough… Here is an article that might explain some… I think it’ll return to positive, if not by May this year, at least next year after May… hope this article helps https://cryptonews.com/news/grayscale-ethereum-trust-discount-reaches-record-60-gbtc-at-45.htm

[squidster]

Why is ETHE trading at such a huge discount, isn't par around 16$?
https://grayscale.com/products/grayscale-ethereum-trust/

[KICK1]

Long and Strong Baby BBAU Apes

[price_and_volume]

Adding a 40-period Price-Channel-Breakout doubles the profit.

Is it a robust system?

That's for you to decide, but any charting + backtesting package enables you to apply these things and think about them.

Again - adding a bit of discipline to trading isn't the worst thing ever - Ihub boards are full of underwater traders who average down into oblivion just hoping and praying to get a lucky exit, but then when it's offered they refuse to take it... and then they ride the roller coaster all the way back down.

Run scans. Make disciplined entries & exits. Make $$.

Rinse repeat.

GLTA

[price_and_volume]

2 breakeven trades since then.

curious what your chart currently shows.

You can easily chart it in any charting application - the rules (not mine) were given in previous posts.

Where is the likely bottom and why has it dropped so much this cycle? Any feelings on SP 1yr, 5yr???

It's a simple coded strategy, I just showed the backtest.

Strategies are NOT predictive, they're reactive: when rules are met, trades are entered. When additional rules are met, trades are exited. Most folks could use a little discipline in their trading (especially those who add to losers, etc).

I have opinions like everyone else, but the market doesn't care what any of us think, that's why I backtest simple rules & apply very basic statistics to my trades.

Best of luck!

[TacoTico]

I mostly understand this chart. But curious what your chart currently shows. Where is the likely bottom and why has it dropped so much this cycle? Any feelings on SP 1yr, 5yr???

[FooBarAndGrill]

Sadly, $ETHPoW is fading fast.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-pow/

[FooBarAndGrill]

$ETHE Dividend to holders of record?
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/09/16/2517691/0/en/Grayscale-Investments-Declares-Distribution-of-Rights-to-Ethereum-Proof-of-Work-Tokens.html

[KICK1]

Breaking: Historic day for crypto as Ethereum Merge to proof-of-stake occurs https://cointelegraph.com/news/breaking-historic-day-for-crypto-as-ethereum-merge-to-proof-of-stake-occurs via @cointelegraph $ETH $ETHE Premium POS POSA

[KICK1]

Thanks FooBar

[FooBarAndGrill]

$ETHE Ethereum Merge tonight. Get Ready for the
'Surge, Verge, Purge, and Splurge'

[SilverKnightLV]

I think the issue is if you stake, you give up liquidity.

[FooBarAndGrill]

They said no? Wow! They would be leaving millions on the table. I'm not surprised tho. "Crypto" Nuf' said.

[SilverKnightLV]

I seem to remember this being asked at some meeting a while ago, and they said no. Just email them and ask.

[FooBarAndGrill]

Grayscale is holding roughly 3,062,703 $ETH. Will Grayscale stake those $ETH?

[FooBarAndGrill]

Ethereum.org
What is staking?
Staking is the act of depositing 32 ETH to activate validator software. As a validator you’ll be responsible for storing data, processing transactions, and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This will keep Ethereum secure for everyone and earn you new ETH in the process. This process, known as proof-of-stake, is being introduced by the Beacon Chain.
You'll be rewarded a variable amount (<18%) for your $ETH stake but the flip side is it's locked up for a period of time (6-months to a year).

[SilverKnightLV]

Bloomberg reports the 15th now

[KICK1]

Added $ETH @BlockFi Long and Strong $ETHE Premium World Computer 2.0 Code Is Law CHAiNLiNK’d

[FooBarAndGrill]

Ethereum 2.0 one month from now?

Currently scheduled for Sept. 19, 2022, the “Merge,” as it’s being called, has big implications for the cryptocurrency’s future and Ethereum traders. Here are the key things to know about the Merge.

What is the Ethereum Merge?
The Merge is a long-awaited change to the Ethereum system, moving it from an inefficient proof-of-work protocol to what’s considered a much more efficient proof-of-stake setup. Both are ways to operate the blockchain system that manages and tracks every transaction in the cryptocurrency.

[FooBarAndGrill]

Market Price per Share $13.98
Ethereum price $1873 *
Ethereum per share 0.00988479 **
Ethereum Holdings per Share $18.51
$ETHE Float 301,381,681 ***
DISCOUNT 24%

$ETHE

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ * ETH Price
https://grayscale.co/ethereum-trust/#overview ** ETH per Share
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ETHE/security *** $ETHE Float

[KICK1]

Thanks, Agreed 420 $ETHE

[weedtrader420]

NICE $20 NEXT WEEK

[KICK1]

Wee! $ETHE LTCN

[weedtrader420]

WOOHOOOOOO ETHE$ LTCN

[FooBarAndGrill]

$ETHE If and when ETHEREUM 2.0:
Ethereum's energy usage will decrease by ~99.95%
https://consensys.net/knowledge-base/the-merge/

[FooBarAndGrill]

Market Price per Share $11.72
Ethereum price $1632 *
Ethereum per share 0.00990376 **
Ethereum Holdings per Share $16.16
$ETHE Float 301,381,681 ***
DISCOUNT 27%

$ETHE

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ * ETH Price
https://grayscale.co/ethereum-trust/#overview ** ETH per Share
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ETHE/security *** $ETHE Float

[KICK1]

Indeed! Congrats Tommy $ETHE $ETH

[TommyBoyTrader9460]

$ETHE Been on my watchlist all week and did not disappoint..

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=ETHE&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1657970013054

[KICK1]

This is Fun! Go Flippers! $ETHE $ETH Premium World Computer Ape Strong!

[KICK1]

Buddy!

[KICK1]

Yeah

[KICK1]

$ETHE RSI 16 Big Volume Spikes Didn’t Rip The 70 Yet but Added Another +1K Filled Go Flippers! Add More $ETH Premium World Computer / 2.0 @SaturnProtocol CHAiNLiNK’d

[No-Quarter]

This is tremendous insight. More information than I was hoping for. Thank you! GLTY

[price_and_volume]

Well, coding is easy but interpretation isn't.

From 15+ years of full-time trading (and building & backtesting strategies), I've learned GENERALLY:

1. Strat building & backtesting depends on the cleanliness of the data - I can't vouch for TS's intraday data on cryptos which trade across various crytpo exchanges & networks generally.

2. Shorter timeframes for something like this are often LESS PROFITABLE, higher-cost, and more demanding to trade.

Are you going to stay awake at your trading-station 24/7 to execute EVERY TRADE as it's presented, when tests show max-consecutive winners=4 and max-consecutive losers=18? Unlikely. Or do you intend to automate the system, and TRUST IT to not go down while you're asleep, potentially costing you $1000s?

3. You have to make assumptions on what fills you can count on, etc. This code says, "if triggered, enter on next bar's open at market", which is considered a conservative coding technique.

4. In my experience, the biggest wins and easiest trades are those that you are comfortable sitting in for many days if not weeks - I still trade garbage pennystocks intraday but that's a different discussion.

Long-story short: I've run the same tests over your suggested timeframes but I didn't see what i would consider a worthwhile improvement overall.

[No-Quarter]

Actually, that info helps. I have been told TradeStation and ThinkorSwim have many similarities, and I recently opened a TDAmerica account. Seems I need to get busy and learn more about ToS.

If it is easy for you, I would greatly appreciate if you would repeat your backtest with 4 hour, 2 hour, and 1 hour timeframes, and post or PM the results. Thank you!

[KICK1]

More! @99 and I’ll Kiss You $$ETH $ETHE Premium World Computer

[price_and_volume]

I've been using TradeStation forever. Not necessarily recommended.

What did you use?

Been a TS-user for 15-20 years, mainly for backtesting futures strategies, automating them when possible, analyzing option-positions, etc.

There are likely better, more modern backtesting / trading platforms out there now, but I'm familiar w/ TS's programming language & backtest quirks after so many years that I've just stayed w/ it.

I am impressed with your backtest

Lol, honestly don't be - that was a super-simple strat to test. I appreciate you posting it - I've been reading the Cycle Trading board for years so I was already familiar w/ it :)

[No-Quarter]

I am impressed with your backtest. I have been doing similar back testing manually, and it would be very helpful to have a better method or tool. You seem to have one. What did you use? Tell me more, please.

[price_and_volume]

go ahead - possibly I can answer them...

I have questions.

Possibly not lol.

[No-Quarter]

It appears you validated my suggestion. If so, then I have questions.

[price_and_volume]

Backtested very basic DAILY, LONG-ONLY version using $ETHE:

1. IF macd histogram is > 0 and THEN 8ema crosses > 13ema then BUY next bar.

2. IF 8ema crosses < 13ema then SELL next bar.

Results from 10/1/19, 100 shares/trade:





(ETHE began trading July '19 I think - needed to build some data first...)

[KICK1]

That’s great! I really appreciate it… GL & Cheers!

[No-Quarter]

GBTC live links for your use. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p04147240056

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46773221947

[KICK1]

Hey Ok, thank you so much! I will use that technique and I gave you a follow, GLTU 2! $ETHE

[No-Quarter]

Here is money for you.

The first $ETHUSD chart below shows you how to follow the buy signal instructions in Box 1 and the sell signal in Box 2. The second $ETHUSD chart below is the percentage gains made if you were doing this for the last 18 months.

It's really that simple! (Works for Bitcoin too)

Live links are to ETHE charts for your use. If you are adventurous, change the chart period from 'Daily' to '4 Hour' (or smaller) for day trading. Let me know if questions. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ETHE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p35102935011

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ETHE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70686527333

[KICK1]

@7.10 RSI 10 20 There’s the Volume! Congratulations Flippers & 70 Rippers! MoMo NiTE 1K @7.70 GTSM @7.69 with a few under low volume bid Level 2 $ETHE Add More $ETH Premium World Computer / Proof Of Stake Saturn Protocol CHAiNLiNK’d Bulls

[price_and_volume]

And the discount to NAV grows...

[KICK1]

Awesome, perhaps there will be many plays before the 2024 bottom, that’ll be the a flippers paradise, then higher up maybe 10X would be icing on top… $ETHE $ETH Premium World Computer / 2.0 Proof Of Stake

[No-Quarter]

Looks like you get your wish.

but I really want 2017-2018 prices probably not gonna get it though