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Take down by the cabal in metals is relentless... can't help myself, buying physical.
Andrew Ghattas SPOT GOLD Investment price current levels ETF
AMAZING... Chris Powell: Gold market manipulation update
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA -- Posted Thursday, 29 October 2015
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1446122682.php
By Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Everything about the financial markets today must begin with two documents.
The first is the 2013 10-k filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States. In August 2014 Eric Scott Hunsader, founder of the market data firm Nanex in Winnetka, Illinois, called attention to a telling paragraph in the filing. The telling paragraph discloses that the customers of CME Group include "governments and central banks."
www.gata.org/node/14411
Also in August 2014 Hunsader called attention to another filing by CME Group, a letter sent in January 2014 to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission by CME Group's managing director and chief regulatory counsel, Christopher Bowen.
http://www.gata.org/node/14385
The letter disclosed that CME Group futures exchanges offer volume trading discounts to central banks for all futures contracts, not just financial futures contracts but also futures contracts for the monetary metals and commodities, including agricultural products.
The CME Group letter to the CFTC justified secret futures market trading by central banks as a matter of providing the markets with "liquidity" that would benefit all traders.
But if governments and central banks, creators of infinite money, are secretly trading the markets, there ARE no markets anymore, just interventions, as a high school graduate told GATA's conference in Washington in 2008 and as the British economist Peter Warburton suspected in his incisive 2001 essay, "The Debasement of World Currency -- It Is Inflation, But Not as We Know It":
http://gata.org/node/8303
If governments and central banks are secretly trading the markets, no fundamental or technical analysis of markets is worth much. If governments and central banks are secretly trading the markets, the only market information worth much is information about government and central bank trading.
GATA has continued to document that central bank trading and related maneuvers since we met here in New Orleans a year ago. Let's review some of the new documentation.
-- On September 21 this year gold researcher Koos Jansen reported that the rules of the International Monetary Fund exempt imports and exports of monetary gold from reporting by national customs agencies. That is, the purchase and sale of monetary gold by governments and central banks across international borders can be withheld from customs reporting, thereby facilitating secret intervention in the gold market:
http://www.gata.org/node/15759
-- On September 16 this year gold researcher Ronan Manly disclosed that while the new daily London gold auction was established in the name of reducing the possibility of market manipulation, the auction's operator, the Inter-Continental Exchange, has reported to the United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority that spikes in Comex gold futures prices seem to have been undertaken to manipulate the afternoon gold auction in London:
http://www.gata.org/node/15743
-- On August 6 this year Manly disclosed a policy study by the Bank of England written in 1988 that concluded that gold is the best money because it has no counterparty risk but that buying it risks insulting the U.S. dollar and the U.S. government:
http://www.gata.org/node/15625
-- On June 9 this year Colorado securities lawyer Avery Goodman, who researches the gold market, called attention to the hugely disproportionate Comex futures contract gold deliveries being made by the investment bank JPMorganChase. The disproportion of the deliveries assigned to MorganChase, Goodman wrote, suggested strongly that the investment bank is administering the U.S. Federal Reserve's gold swapping and leasing operations and that at least for the time being the U.S. government and U.S. gold reserve are guaranteeing Comex gold futures contracts:
http://www.gata.org/node/15441
-- On May 3 this year gold researcher Manly called attention to the Internet site of the gold market consultancy started last year by the former Barclays Bank representative in the London Gold Market Fixing company, Jonathan Spall. Spall's new company is called G Cubed Metals:
http://www.gata.org/node/15310
The G. Cubed Metals Internet site says: "All connected with G Cubed Metals are well aware of the need for confidentiality in all financial markets as well as the additional sensitivity that comes from transacting in precious metals -- particularly when it involves the 'official sector' such as governments, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds."
Why do governments and central banks need such confidentiality in their gold market operations unless they mean to do something they don't want the market to know about?
-- On April 6 this year gold researcher Manly disclosed a letter written on January 30 by the chief executive of the London Bullion Market Association, Ruth Crowell, to the Bank of England's Fair and Effective Market Review Committee.
http://www.gata.org/node/15241
Crowell wrote: "The role of the central banks in the bullion market may preclude 'total' transparency, at least at public level."
While Crowell wrote that the LBMA welcomes more transparency in the London gold market, particularly through what she called "post-trade reporting," she also praised gold lending by central banks for providing "liquidity" to the market, asserting that "it is vital that the role of the liquidity provider is not diminished but in fact strengthened to make sure the markets remain fair and effective."
The Bank of England's review of the gold market, Crowell's letter said, "should prioritize liquidity, as greater liquidity results in markets which are less easily manipulated, and consequently regulators should afford market participants the tools with which to foster liquidity."
But if the foremost providers of "liquidity" in the gold market are central banks, their provision of "liquidity" is likely the primary mechanism of market manipulation, as central banks have not just access to effectively infinite financial resources but also the powerful motive to manipulate the markets in which their currencies and bonds trade.
Thus with its chief executive's letter to the Bank of England, the LBMA made the same bogus and self-serving claim that was made by futures exchange operator CME Group in support of the volume trading discounts it gives to central banks for secretly trading the U.S. futures markets CME Group operates -- the claim that secret trading by central banks deters market manipulation rather than constitutes it.
-- On March 1 this year a GATA supporter discovered a Ramparts magazine article from May 1968 written just after the collapse of the London Gold Pool. The article was written by Michael Hudson, who then was an analyst for Chase Manhattan Bank and lately has been professor of economics at the University of Missouri at Kansas City:
http://www.gata.org/node/15147
Hudson wrote:
"America's desire to see gold eliminated from the world's monetary system is understandable. It had used gold as a lever with which to exercise world power, not only to purchase foreign businesses but also to finance its overseas Cold War operations. Gold, America perceived, was power; as long as gold was the basis of the world monetary system, power followed it. Therefore, when its gold stockpile was depleted, America naturally wanted to transform the monetary system in such a way as to phase gold out, thereby preventing any other nation from using the power it provides -- especially in view of the fact that the major potential gold-bloc nations are the Soviet Union, South Africa, and France."
-- On February 28 this year gold researcher Manly located comments made by a high official of the Bank of England in a 2007 issue of the magazine Central Banking indicating that the Bank of England secretly traded gold in the 1980s to control its price and even made a profit doing so:
http://www.gata.org/node/15146
-- In January this year the chief of market operations for the Banque de France, Alexandre Gautier, replied to an e-mail inquiry from GATA's friend Fabrice Drouin Ristori, chief executive of Goldbroker.com in Malta. Gautier had told the London Bullion Market Association meeting in Rome in September 2013 that the Banque de France secretly trades gold "nearly every day" for its own account and for the accounts of other central banks:
http://www.gata.org/node/13373
Ristori asked Gautier to explain the purposes of the Banque de France's gold trading. Gautier replied that the French central bank never explains its operations in the gold market.
http://www.gata.org/node/14954
But the only purpose of such daily trading by central banks is market manipulation.
-- A week ago the executive director of Austria's central bank, Peter Mooslechner, was interviewed by Daniela Cambone of Kitco News on the sidelines of the London Bullion Market Association conference in Vienna. Mooslechner volunteered to Cambone that Asian central banks are intervening surreptitiously in the gold market:
http://www.gata.org/node/15878
Cambone had asked Mooslechner to explain the role of central bank gold reserves.
Mooslechner replied: "I think for small countries it's more or less this buffer role in the end. It's quite different, I think, for central banks in Asia, for example, where they are increasing their reserves a lot and they are much more active in using also their reserves in trading in the market and intervening into the market."
But Cambone seemed to fail to understand what she had just been told. She asked no follow-up questions about secret central bank interventions in the gold market.
GATA's friend the German financial journalist Lars Schall noticed Cambone's gross omission and understood its importance. So Schall sent his own follow-up questions to the Austrian central bank in the hope that Mooslechner would reply:
http://www.gata.org/node/15892
Schall asked Mooslechner the following questions:
-- Can you elaborate on the trading of gold by central banks and their use of gold for market intervention?
-- Exactly which central banks are doing this trading and intervention, what are its purposes, objectives, and results, and what markets are involved?
-- Are this trading and intervention public and announced or are they secret and surreptitious?
-- Are this trading and intervention undertaken directly by central banks or through intermediaries?
-- If this trading and intervention are undertaken through intermediaries, who are they?
-- Should markets and citizens generally have the right to know about this trading and intervention?
-- And how do you know about it, Herr Mooslechner?
Today Schall reported that the Austrian central bank’s press office had just replied to him as follows: “Sorry, we are not going to answer your questions. We never comment on our investment strategy and trading":
http://www.larsschall.com/2015/10/27/again-and-again-no-answers-from-cen...
But Schall had not asked about the Austrian central bank’s investment strategy and trading. He had asked about the Austrian central banker’s comment on Asian central bank trading and secret market intervention.
Even so, Mooslechner's lapse into candor about secret central bank intervention in the gold market was notable enough. Maybe Mooslechner is not available to answer Schall's questions because he is floating face-down in the Danube.
-- Of course Cambone's job at Kitco News is not to commit journalism; it's just to look pretty.
But a few days after Cambone flubbed her interview with the Austrian central banker, the star columnist of the Financial Times, Martin Wolf, did no better with his interview with former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke over lunch at a restaurant in Chicago.
http://www.gata.org/node/15884
Amazingly, Wolf never asked Bernanke an inconvenient question. Wolf asked no questions about surreptitious interventions in the markets by the Fed, and no questions about the many documents involving market intervention that the Fed refuses to disclose.
For Wolf's job at the Financial Times is not to commit journalism either. It's just to shill for the government and ingratiate the newspaper with it.
* * *
The primary objective of these largely surreptitious interventions by central banks in the gold market has been to keep the gold price down and thereby destroy the natural inverse relationship of the gold price with interest rates and currency values -- to prevent gold from serving its traditional function as a hedge against government mismanagement of currencies and markets, to prevent people from escaping the central bank system.
By any traditional market standard it is absurd that gold should be priced below the cost of its production when, as now, real interest rates and even nominal interest rates are negative. Gold can be priced this way only because of massive intervention -- constant, daily, even hourly intervention by central banks using derivatives, high-frequency trading, and dishoarding from central bank gold reserves.
If you rig the risk-free rate of return, the price of money from the government, and rig the price of the traditional safe-haven money, gold, you rig all prices, rig the price of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world, and thereby destroy the market economy. Even some central bankers have been calling this policy "financial repression."
In today's environment of "financial repression," any investment in gold and gold-mining companies is a bet on the restoration of a market economy -- or a bet that, eventually, yielding to market pressures, central banks will choose to devalue currencies and debt by resetting the gold price much higher and resuming their gold price suppression scheme at a more sustainable level, a level with less offtake from their gold reserves. This would be the sort of thing central banks have done before, as in 1933 and 1934, 1968, and 1971.
I have no insight into exactly what will happen or when. I think the best that advocates of free and transparent markets can hope for is to drag "financial repression" fully into the open so that even mainstream financial news organizations like the Financial Times are forced to acknowledge it. Then the world can plainly decide between totalitarianism and democracy.
Much more documentation of the rigging of the gold market by central banks is posted in the "Documentation" file at GATA's Internet site:
http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21
If you think GATA's work is worth sustaining, please visit our Internet site at GATA.org and consider supporting us with a federally tax-deductible contribution. We're a nonprofit educational and civil rights organization and more than ever could use your help now.
Thanks for your kind attention.
Gold - The Urgency To Buy
Tuesday October 13, 2015 10:56
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-10-13/Gold-The-Urgency-To-Buy.html
Per recent missives, Gold -- as it did twice more this past week -- is putting in a sufficient number of "lift-offs" such that we'll stop enumerating them. The point is: Gold is banking buying bursts on each broadly visible suggestion of central banks' eventually queuing up for Quantitative Easing, our own StateSide FedHeads, (behind the bravado of a looming raise in their Funds rate), we think awkwardly "feeling" QE, albeit clearly not "acknowledging" QE ... at least not yet.
What we're "feeling" and "acknowledging" across the recent rippling of the Gold trade is a prudent urgency to buy, and to so do with gusto, (price then subtly drifting downward after each such instance), ... and then Bang: the Buy Button is hit yet again. 'Tis still another sign in determining "how we'll know when the bottom is in". And with Gold today at but a lowly 1156, you regular readers know we've already established that price must work well up through the 1200s before declaring it indeed has reached as low as 'twill go (i.e. 1072 back on 24 July).
That said, the urgency to buy of late continues to be impressive, relative to many-a-failed attempt which we've witnessed during these past four years. To be sure, October's upside thus far may not appear to be worth jubilating about: Gold's remains down 2.3% for 2015-to-date, (not that we need remind ourselves 'tis also down 40% from its All-Time High of 1923 on 06 September 2011).
$GOLD Bid/Ask 1185.30 / 1186.30
Seriously, this is the invisible inflexion point... the bull is now.
The Bull is on... PERIOD.
Straight up... In Defense of Gold
Tuesday September 29, 2015 14:40
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-29/In-Defense-of-Gold.html
The reason to own gold is the same today as it has been for thousands of years: it is the perfect store of wealth. Gold is portable, divisible without losing its value, beautiful, extremely scarce, and virtually indestructible. It is simply the best form of money known to mankind.
The case for keeping your wealth in gold only becomes more bolstered when real interest rates are negative, faith in fiat currencies is crumbling, and nation states are insolvent. The massive and unprecedented Quantitative Easing programs and Zero Interest Rate Policies among the Bank of Japan, Peoples Bank of China, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve clearly show that Central Banks have no escape from manipulation of their bond market, currencies, equities and economies. Ms. Yellen’s recent tacit admission that the Fed Funds Rate must remain at zero percent for at least a full seven years was a clear validation of this premise.
Calls on $GOLD futures flying off the shelves!!! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!
Yikes... Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/09/2015 11:32 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-09/something-just-snapped-comex
This means that what was already a record dilution factor, with over 200 ounces of paper gold claims for every ounce of deliverable gold, just soared even more, and following today's 8% drop, there is now a unprecedented 228 ounces of paper claims for every ounce of deliverable "registered" gold.
The Many Uses of Gold
Wednesday September 02, 2015 15:46
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-02/The-Many-Uses-of-Gold.html
Gold’s many qualities make it one of the most coveted metals in the world. Not only can it be beautifully shaped and sculpted, the yellow metal also conducts electricity, doesn’t tarnish and is biocompatible (meaning it’s not harmful to our tissue). These qualities make it the metal of choice in a wide variety of industries, including dentistry and medicine, electrical engineering, construction and aerospace manufacturing.
Another important use of gold is to help stabilize monetary systems. For centuries, most advanced nations were on the gold standard, which restricted governments from creating a limitless amount of money and running up massive levels of debt.
Many incidents throughout history show the negative consequences when a country eliminated the gold standard and adopted a fiat currency system.
The most notable example involves John Law, a Scottish gambler who became head of France’s central bank in the early 18th century. In an attempt to reduce the late King Louis XIV’s debt, Law began printing banknotes, flooding the economy with easy money.
His plan worked—until it didn’t. The banknotes rapidly lost their value, eventually becoming as worthless as the paper they were printed on. Law was summarily exiled from France, whose economy spiraled deeper into depression, laying the groundwork for the French Revolution later that century.
Law’s is an extreme example to be sure, but it serves as a cautionary tale.
This relationship between the gold standard and government debt is explored even further in a fascinating article that appears in our most recent Shareholder Report, which many of you should have already received in the mail. The article makes the case clearly:
The gold standard limits the amount of debt that can be issued. Forty-four years ago, when the U.S. made the switch to a fiat currency system, the federal government owed $399 billion. Since then, outstanding debt has ballooned 4,411 percent to $18 trillion—more than twice the amount of all the gold in the world (nearly $7 trillion). Such massive debt levels can be reached only in a fiat currency system, where money is easy, virtually limitless and unsecured by anything tangible.
Today, no country on earth still uses the gold standard. In 1999, Switzerland became the last country to break from it. And yet central banks all over the globe continue to maintain, and add to, their gold reserves, including Switzerland. At 1,040 tonnes of gold, its holdings are the seventh-largest in the world, following Russia’s.
Speaking of Russia, it was overtaken recently by China, which announced in July that it increased its gold reserves 57 percent in the last six years to more than 1,658 tonnes. An additional 600,000 ounces were purchased in the same month.
Why is China doing this? As I’ve discussed before, China wants to sufficiently back its currency, the renminbi, so it can qualify as part of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) basket of special reserve currencies, alongside the U.S. dollar, British pound, euro and Japanese yen.
Similarly, Texas is in the process of establishing the very first state-run gold depository to compete with the Federal Reserve. In theory, this will allow the Lone Star State to be more financially independent and enjoy greater monetary stability.
That’s as good a use of gold as any.
Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
Nothing new here... no traction yet...
The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold
Aug. 10, 2015 3:40 AM ET
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3421396-the-big-long-goldman-sachs-and-hsbc-buy-7_1-tons-of-physical-gold?ifp=0
Summary
- On August 6, 2015, Goldman Sachs, which has issued very bearish forecasts on long-term gold prices, took delivery of a 3.2-ton purchase of physical gold.
- On August 6, 2015, HSBC which also claims to be bearish, took delivery of a 3.9-ton purchase of physical gold.
In both cases, the purchases are registered as being for the benefit of the bank's own house account, rather than the accounts of customers.
Investors should do as the banks do, not as they say.
This Stunning Event Has Only Happened One Other Time In The History Of The Gold Market
from KingWorldNews:
http://kingworldnews.com/this-has-only-happened-one-other-time-in-the-history-of-the-gold-market/
Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader notes the astonishing sentiment reading in the gold market: "The latest Optimism Index readings for currencies and commodities showed that gold is still the most-hated contract. Its Optix of 12 was unchanged. It was slightly eclipsed in June 2013 otherwise this is the lowest sentiment for gold since December 1997 (see chart below).
Gold And Silver Shortages Become Acute – GLD Is Being Looted Again
July 20, 2015
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-shortages-become-acute-gld-is-being-looted-again/
* A client of mine, a jeweler just called. His refiner called him – looking to buy gold or silver. The refiner has very tight stock. My client buys “shots” to melt and builds into rings etc. His refiner volunteered info on the selling this am – says the system is manipulated, which shocked the client only in that it was openly admitted. When my client’s refiner needs product you know there is a shortage. This is the first time in 10 years this refiner said there were shortages. – A colleague and friend of mine who manages high net worth accounts
GATA was the first in this country to warn, based on a historically very reliable source from London, that there would be acute shortages of gold and silver this fall at refiners in Europe. A few weeks later the mint announces that it is suspending sales of one ounce silver eagles until at least August. And it now looks like GLD is being looted.
At the same time, both gold and silver eagle sales in June went vertical in June. Last week the amount of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange – 61.8 tonnes – was the 8th largest weekly withdrawal on record.
This is Gresham’s Law in motion. Bad money chases good money out of the system. Above-ground stocks of physical gold and silver are disappearing because people “in the know” are converting their fiat Monopoly money into many different forms of gold and silver that is being safekept outside the corrupted and criminal banking custodial systems.
While anti-establishment analysts try to decipher and explain the ongoing asset bubbles that have reappeared since the Central Banks emarked on the mission of re-inflating the bubbles that led to the defacto financial collapse of the western banking system in 2008, perhaps the biggest bubble of them all is the one that has been blown in paper gold and silver.
As I have been documenting on this site, the amount of open interest in paper Comex gold contracts has gone parabolic in the last few weeks – here and here. The open interest in gold went up again on Friday by 274 contracts to 474k. This is 47.4 million ounces or 1,378 tonnes of paper gold – an amount of paper gold that exceeds the amount of physical gold held by most countries globally.
But more significantly, this amount of paper gold is 98x greater than the actual amount of physical gold held in Comex accounts that is classified as “available to be delivered.” In other words, the amount of paper gold outstanding on the Comex is 99% fraudulent. In relation to the underlying fundamentals and in relation to the actual amount of physical product available, the bubble in Comex paper gold is the largest in history. Then add to this the amount of paper vs. physical in London, estimated conservatively to at least 100:1 – right Jeff? (Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group).
I find it quite amusing that bullion market professionals like John Hathaway – Tocqueville Gold Fund Manager – Bron Suchecki – Perth Mint – have finally come out of the woodwork and admitted what has been obvious for over 15 years: Hathaway manipulation confessional; Suchecki manipulation confessional. GATA was much more gentle and diplomatic in its assessment of Hathaway’s “mea culpa” than I am, to quote Big Bill: “Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once,” William Shakespeare.
Here’s what blatant manipulation of any market looks like when the paper version of the same is allowed to trade unchecked by those who are in charge of applying the laws already in place to prevent this:
I guess when the market intervention becomes this obvious, even people like John Hathaway and Bron are forced into admitting the obvious, but only out of fear of being branded idiots by the truth. As John Brimelow of JB’s Gold Jottings puts it: “The scale and brazenness of these raids is increasingly looking like April and June of 2013.”
As for GLD, a startling 11.63 tonnes was removed on Friday, taking the total reported tonnage down to 696 tonnes. It’s the lowest since September 19, 2008, when the price of gold closed on the Comex at $860. I have written about this in the past and will do so more going forward, but it is likely that GLD does not even have 696 tonnes of gold sitting in its vaults that is unencumbered by hypothecation or lease agreements. Or is just outright not there.
The prospectus of GLD – which I have gone over line by line several times over the years – makes it clear that GLD is nothing more than another derivative form of gold. Furthermore, I know of big players who have requested redemption of the gold from GLD in exchange for their shares – as prescribed by the prospectus – but who were denied – as is also prescribed in the prospectus. In other words, GLD is nothing more than a device used by the bullion banks – acting on behalf of the western Central Banks – to source gold when needed due to extreme shortages in order to make deliveries to parties who they can not deny. Like China, India and Russia. Or the OPEC States.
The global economy and financial system are collapsing, including and especially the United States. While the powers that be can resort to outright criminal behavior to continue kicking the “collapse can” down the road for a while longer, it is imperative that they prevent the price of gold from signalling to the world that something is wrong. What is happening now strikingly similar to what occurred starting in March 2008, right before Bear Stearns et al began to fall like a house of cards in a wind tunnel.
The amount of effort and degree of criminality involved in this latest effort to push down the price of gold with Ponzi paper is directly proportional to the severity of the economic and financial problem winding its way toward us still hidden behind fraudulent bookkeeping and propaganda. But if 2008 was the equivalent of a small roadside bomb in Afghanistan, what will soon hit our system will be like a nuclear bomb detonating in Times Square.
Gold Panic
July 21, 2015 | Author Pater Tenebrarum
Another Capitulation…
Early on Monday in Asian trading, someone (or something, like a trading algorithm) sold quite a bit of gold in the futures market. Apparently the sale was so overwhelming that circuit breakers were triggered twice. Someone seems to have developed an odd predilection for selling a lot of gold futures at precisely those times when futures market liquidity is at its thinnest – as the same thing happened again after the close of official COMEX trading on Monday, in what is nomally a “quiet period”.
There are many ways in which such a seemingly strange trade (which ensures one doesn’t get the best price) can potentially pay off. For instance, it could generate a big profit for outright short positions taken at an earlier stage, by triggering the sell stops of other traders. It could also pay off if a large options position was previously bought, either on gold futures directly or perhaps on closely related instruments like gold stocks or ETFs on gold stocks.
A second capitulation after the 2014 capitulation move.
The most interesting action took indeed place in gold stocks. The HUI Index produced an RSI of slightly above 11 on its daily chart, after declining for a record 10th day in a row. This RSI reading is the lowest in the history of the index (the previous record low was produced in 1998 at about 16). Moreover, gold stocks have now broken every historical bear market record in the sector. Not only is this by now the biggest decline on record, the sector (as measured by the BGMI) is also trading at a record low relative to the gold price – undercutting the previous record low established in 1942 in the mini-crash following the Pearl Harbor attack.
The reason why this move deserves to be called another capitulation is that it has something in common with the 2008 and 2014 capitulation lows: in both cases record high trading volume was recorded (not in all gold stocks, but in selected stocks, resp. ETFs). This time it was the turn of the GDX, of which nearly 170 million shares traded on Monday, dwarfing all previous trading volume spikes by a huge margin:
Trading volume in GDX explodes.
A number of the declines in individual gold stocks seemed downright silly – e.g. ABX, the world’s largest gold miner by output, saw its shares decline by almost 16%. This is remarkable even by the sector’s standards of volatility, but it is even more so if one considers that ABX was already trading below its low of 2000 before Monday’s decline. When ABX made its low in 2000, the gold price was at $270. We are not particularly enamored of ABX by the way (we think it has way too much debt), we’re merely using it for the purpose of illustration here.
Naturally, there is no evidence yet that a low is in – but one can certainly compare the current situation with similar events in the past. Irrespective of whether such extremes were recorded during bull or bear markets, a sizable rebound has tended to happen very soon thereafter.
This is to say, traders can probably look forward to a playable and possibly quite respectable bounce fairly soon, regardless of the market’s longer term direction. The caveat to this is that just as usually happens in a blow-off move in a bubble, very large percentage moves tend to occur in the final stages of anti-bubble blow-off moves as well, and a mere one or two days can make a big difference with respect to the entry prices on offer. Usually it is best to wait for some evidence that a turn in prices has actually begun.
Support Levels, Sentiment and Fundamentals
We have recently discussed gold’s lackluster reaction to the (for now) fast receding “Grexit” threat (see “Gold and the Grexit Threat” for details), and on this occasion pointed out that it was certainly possible for the gold price in dollar terms to move to the next major “price attractor”, namely the support/resistance level established in March of 2008 near $1,040-$1,050. This level was almost reached on Monday morning (the low was around $1,080).
We presented a few sentiment and positioning data as well in that article, several of which will only be updated later this week. We have near real time data on Rydex precious metals assets, which have declined by another 15% to a new record low, as well as the CEF discount to NAV, which stands at minus 10.30% (CEF is a closed end bullion fund holding both gold and silver bullion). This is not quite a record yet, but a pretty extreme reading nevertheless. People are prepared to voluntarily sell you gold and silver bullion at a more than 10% discount, a sign that they remain very bearish indeed.
It is a fair bet that a number of other sentiment and positioning indicators will also produce new negative records this week. Kitco reported on Friday (i.e., before Monday’s clubbing) that in its survey “68% Of Main Street And Wall Street Are Negative On Gold”, which if memory serves is quite an extreme unanimity of opinion in this particular poll as well.
Not surprisingly, the mainstream financial media have been brim-full with bearish pronouncements on gold over the past two weeks, and the grave dancing by assorted gold bears reached something of a crescendo on Monday as well. Here are two examples:
“Gold Slump is Here to Stay” (sure?), or the droll
“Let’s Be Honest About Gold, It’s a Pet Rock”
There is no need to discuss the usual canards forwarded by mainstream gold bears again (“gold is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it” – duh!), but we would note that most of the grave dancers somehow failed to grace us with their opinions while gold rallied from $250 to $1,900 between 1999 and 2011.
It is certainly true though that the fundamental backdrop for gold (credit spreads, the steepness of the yield curve, inflation expectations, money supply growth rates, performance of alternative investment assets, the US dollar’s trend, faith in central banks and other central planners, etc.) has tended to be slightly bearish and at best occasionally neutral over the past two to three years.
Obviously, this applies somewhat less to gold in terms of currencies other than the US dollar; for instance, the ECB is inflating the euro area’s money supply at warp speed, and this certainly has an effect on the gold price in euro terms. The ministrations of the BoJ have also left their mark on the yen gold price. Although the recent decline has also led to a decline in gold prices in these currencies, prices remain a good sight above their previous lows.
Gold in euro and yen terms.
Whether one thinks of the recent decline as an opportunity – or at least a developing opportunity – depends on more than just the short term fundamental and technical picture though. In our opinion, it is apodictically certain that the current global experiment in central banking on steroids will end with a major denouement. Very likely it will dwarf all the busts we have witnessed in the post WW2 era to date.
Of course this opinion is quite contrary to the widespread new-found faith in central planning that has reigned in recent years (investors evidently have very short attention spans). However, this misguided faith is only one of the elements driving the situation. In the short to medium term, it may even appear justified to observers focused on various indicators of economic activity – just as Greenspan’s easy money policy seemed to “work” until it didn’t anymore.
Underneath the superficial data, the economy has been and continues to be severely undermined by distortions in relative prices, the associated falsification of economic calculation and the malinvestment this engenders. It was easy to buy “too early” in the cyclical gold bear market since 2011. However, we believe that a day will come when this will hardly matter. On that day, the price at which one has bought will be secondary to the question of whether one actually has any gold at all.
Obviously, this latter remark reflects only our personal opinion and will depend greatly on the future actions of policymakers, which cannot be foreseen with certainty. However, what we have said above about the effects of loose monetary policy on the economy is definitely not just a matter of opinion.
An empirical indicator of the imbalances in the economy’s production structure due to credit expansion-induced malinvestment: the ratio of capital to consumer goods production.
Conclusion:
For those already invested in the gold sector, the current breakdown is undoubtedly painful, but this shall pass. Those not yet invested or holding only little exposure should definitely regard the situation as an excellent opportunity. Even for short term traders a chance to play a sizable rebound is likely not too far away.
In the longer term, this downturn remains in our opinion comparable to the mid-1970s correction, which was of roughly similar size. Back then the press was also full with gold obituaries, but the price took off again because the underlying economic problems had not been solved.
Have the underlying economic problems been truly solved this time around? We really don’t think so. Global debt levels have increased sharply since the last major crisis, which was likewise induced by a combination of too much debt and enormous capital malinvestment. We would argue that the underlying economic situation has gotten worse, not better. Economic activity by itself is telling us very little – during credit expansions it merely tends to mask capital consumption. Gold will therefore shine again, even though it has obviously greatly disappointed its fans since 2011.
Charts by: StockCharts, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research
Banksters Unleash a Golden, Sunday-Evening, Drive-by Shooting
post date JULY 20, 2015 by the Wealth Watchman
http://thewealthwatchman.com/banksters-unleash-a-golden-sunday-evening-drive-by-shooting/
A dose of reality... harsh... admonishing truthfulness... unlike anything I have read in the past but somehow wondered aloud at my desk the last 2-3 months.. this needs to be absorbed, at the link above, not just read like all the others... FWIW
Jim Willie and Bill Holter give me cause for pause but this is inescapably different...
Metals in collapse mode...manipulated, of course...
More down as far as I can see... not to be negative but I'm just going with the flow... for now, the flow is down.
Gold Bashers Ramp Up the MOPE!
Posted on June 17, 2015 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-bashers-ramp-up-the-mope/
There is no shortage of negative gold and silver bashing commentary this week from the MSM.
A quick google search will produce such headlines as:
From #2 on my list of favorite authors:
Those Crazy Gold Bugs!
-- Posted Monday, 1 June 2015
By Bill Holter
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1433170054.php
Rather than write about the economy, the markets or geopolitics, today let's look at something a little different. It's important every once in a while to step back and take in the big picture because we are all guilty of getting too close or "finite" if you will. We fight the daily battles while losing sight of what the war is really about. Gold advocates otherwise known as "gold bugs" have been worn down by the daily battles, some have even forgotten what the real war is. Gold bugs, these are the "crazies" out there who are described as nuts or "conspiracy theorists". We know now they were not "theorists" at all. JP Morgan's $32 billion paid in fines along with many other fined and censured firms is proof of conspiracy FACT!
The term itself "gold bugs" is disparaging as if gold advocates are like some sort of cockroaches running around and dirtying up the place. It is true that some "advocates" go off half cocked and see everything as a conspiracy, I have even come across some who are so fervent they believe in gold as some sort of "religion". It is not. "Gold" as JP Morgan once said "is money, nothing else". Gold is in fact money, it is real money that has value on its own and not "legislated" or as it is in today's world, "mandated upon" the public. Most Americans who are reading this may have a difficult time understanding it even though true, many foreigners are nodding their heads with a slight smile! It should be pointed out, everything these crazy gold bugs have been saying about the world from a "fiscal" standpoint has and is in fact coming to fruition. It has not happened "when" nor as soon as they believed it would (me included), because the current insanity of balance sheets could never have been imagined even 10 years ago ...however, "timing" does not change "the ending"!
Stepping back and looking at the forest rather than the trees, collectively a very large part of the world is in a state of bankruptcy even though not declared, recognized or admitted. No matter how you look at it or on what level (state, corporate or individual), the standard of living is broadly in decline globally. (Yes I know, that top 1% or even .1% is living well and improving with each drop of sucked blood they receive from the system.) While choosing this topic to write about, I had no idea how fortuitous the timing was. Within 15 minutes of beginning this piece, a link to an interview of none other than Alan Greenspan, Richard Fisher, and Lawrence Lindsey hit my inbox!
I could only chuckle after watching the interview because my entire writing can now consist of "yeah, what they said!". Rather than write an entire article on this, I believe it might be better to let you watch what I was going to write, and we can move on to the "motives" of these three telling "mostly" the truth. If you watch this interview, please keep in mind this one question "...and the alternative is"?
Why exactly would these former Federal Reservists hint that, mathematically, logically, intuitively and in real life, IT'S OVER! They did back peddle a little bit as the interview went on but "why" or better yet why now? I believe they know what the crazy gold bugs have been saying all along is true and the day of reckoning is very close at hand. They must be trying to get "out in front" of what is coming so they're on the record for historical and "legacy" purposes. Nothing else makes any sense. Are they "trying" to torpedo the system or to break confidence? I highly doubt it but after watching the interview, would any kid with a paper route invest their money into the current system? Are they trying to bad mouth the Fed now they are no longer employed there? No, in fact, they each one pointed the blame at Congress. It's Congress' fault we are in this mess! "They" (Congress) spent the money and made the promises which cannot be honored and will ultimately be broken.
There is a punch line of course, one these three men don't want you to hear! Actually, the joke AND the punch line are both one in the same, "the money itself is bad and is the core to ALL economic and financial problems!". You see, Congress could never had authorized all of the spending if the Treasury did not have the "money" in its coffers. Yes Treasury could have borrowed money but would have been restrained if "money" was gold or something "real". The only way that Congress has been able to get away with bankrupting the country was with the aid of ... yes, the FEDERAL RESERVE these guys used to work for! The Fed has in fact underwritten the scheme, if there was no Fed ...the leverage could never have been built into the system. Greenspan, Fisher and Lindsey of course know this but they can never admit it. Were they to admit it, it would be an admission that they knew all along they were driving the bus over a cliff ...with a roadmap wide open!
All three spoke about the current state of interest rates and the unsustainability of the situation. They ask "why", for what good reason are interest rates at levels only justified by a crisis? The answer of course is; we are still in a crisis, we never exited and if rates HAD been increased ...their greatest fears would have already been realized! Mathematically, rates cannot go higher because of the inability to service interest payments (not to mention blowing up the leveraged interest rate derivatives) would come front and center. They are trying to say the inability to pay is guaranteed to come ...but is a future event. If rates were to rise now, it becomes a current event. It's really this simple!
Lawrence Lindsey even said at the 45 minute mark, "this is how they all end ...including Zimbabwe"! All "what" Larry? Fiat currencies? Or central banks who issue them? This brings me to another article which has come out and ties in perfectly. Actually, it ties in so well we can bring this entire article full circle and back to one of the gold bugs most central theses. Zerohedge posted an article regarding a systemic bet being made by billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer. Mr. Singer's strategy is simple, he calls it the "bigger short". He believes interest rates have only one way to go, up. He also believes we will see far more staggering defaults than we did in 2008-09. He believes shorting the debt of the world is a no brainer trade and one where you can win ALL the marbles.
Zerohedge of course picked up on the "minor flaw" in this strategy. The very same flaw I might add that Harry Dent, Martin Armstrong and others are missing. You see, when you "win", you must be "paid", but paid in "what" is the question. Assuming Mr. Singer is correct and the system does collapse on itself and he "wins". His win of course will be HUGE ...but, he will be paid in dollars or euros or whatever fiat currency his trade is done in. What will his winnings be worth if the currency itself is worth nothing? It reminds me of Mikhail Barishnikoff in the movie "White Nights", he had a stack full of worthless rubles and threw them handful after handful up in the air while saying "rubles, rubles, lots and lots of rubles". He had money ...but it wasn't worth anything.
You see, the currencies themselves are supported by the very debt Mr. Singer is selling short and expects to collapse! Which now brings us back full circle to the crazy gold bugs. This is exactly what they have been saying all along, a debt default will also mean a collapse in confidence of the currencies themselves and direct "fear capital" back into real money. This will create huge demand, force supply into hiding and additionally revalue gold higher because the currencies themselves are losing value and confidence. Gold bugs are not so different from those who see the dangers in the system from overheated markets and overleveraged debtors. The only difference is that these nut jobs want what hasn't been for nearly 50 years, they want TRUE and REAL "SETTLEMENT"! They actually want to get paid in something real! How crazy is that?
Regards, Bill Holter for;
Holter/Sinclair collaboration.
Gold up big-time today. Central bankers having a hard time hiding the data that shows the Eurozone's paltry 0.4% growth is still outpacing US growth...which I suspect is negative. China slowing considerably too.
The numbers don't lie.
Weird action in the metals this week... even the bonds, major markets and the dollar took a beating... contrived, of course.
Pro-Life thank you, Massive Returns Expected From Gold Mining Companies -
Thursday, April 23, 2015 8:08
ex....
http://beforeitsnews.com/gold-and-precious-metals/2015/04/massive-returns-expected-from-gold-mining-companies-2639814.html
EUROPEAN GOLD FORUM 2015 > WEBCAST - Caledonia Mining Corporation -
http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf15/egf15-webcast/egf15-webcast-stream.html
5 Catalysts That Will Spark a Bull Market in Gold and Silver -
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13118966/1/5-catalysts-that-will-spark-a-bull-market-in-gold-and-silver.html
God Bless
Metals blasted today... ouch.
$GOLD P&F Chart Bullish Price Objective revised downward: $1309
Is the price of gold headed above $20,000?
http://kingworldnews.com/price-gold-really-headed-20000/
CALVF NO DEBT - 8% dividend - Gold produced @ $599/oz -
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110308416
Gold & Silver is the only REAL Legal Tender -
by The Founding Fathers -
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/monie.htm
God Bless
Bottom... look at it... time to go long and stay that way for a while.
I saw that! So much strength in gold right now. I'm looking to buy more on dips but there's barely any. My only reservation is the RSI on the chart has moved into Overbought mode, but I've seen stocks run a year straight with the RSI pegged, so it may not matter. Gold is a fundamental mover right now more than technical anyway.
This year will be the year that the 10+ year bull run continues, imo.
Overnight, gold breaks $1300...
Good report! The last 2 years have been a gift to buy Gold/silver at these levels, imo.
Gold Market Update
originally published January 19th, 2015
Clive Maund
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
Click the link above for tons of charts...
Folks better hold some physical gold in this world. The budget that was passed in December by Obama, and no one was allowed to read it, contained new language written by none else than the BIG banks of Wall Street.
Evidently anyone with a Savings account in a bank has been re-defined as a "Creditor" instead of a customer. They also flipped the Asset Liquidation waterfall priorities (for bankruptcy cases) so that shareholders get paid first and Creditors get paid last in the banking industry. What does this mean? It means they're setting us up for a Bail-in in this country.
It means that when the banks declare bankruptcy (and they will) the shareholders (i.e. Board of Directors) will get paid first, then liabilities, then way down at the bottom the Creditors will get screwed. Another words, they're going to steal the hard earned savings from Americans to pay off their massive gambling losses.
I'm advising everyone I know to start moving money out of savings accounts. Checking accounts may not be much better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Pensions get fleeced too.
Hate to say it but metals are not a picture of health and strength chart wise.
The Lawless Manipulation of Bullion Markets by Public Authorities
Paul Craig Roberts - December 23, 2014
http://www.thedailybell.com/editorials/35939/Paul-Craig-Roberts-The-Lawless-Manipulation-of-Bullion-Markets-by-Public-Authorities/
Note: In this article the times given are Eastern Standard Time. The software that generated?the graph uses Mountain Standard Time. Therefore, read the x-axis two hours later than the axis indicates.
The Federal Reserve and its bullion bank agents are actively using uncovered futures contracts to illegally manipulate the prices of precious metals in order to keep interest rates below the market rate. The purpose of manipulation is to support the U.S. dollar's reserve status at a time when the dollar should be in decline from the over-supply created by QE and from trade and budget deficits.
Historically, the role of gold and silver has been to function as a means of exchange and a store of wealth during periods of economic and political turmoil. Since the bullion bull market began in late 2000, it rose almost non-stop until March 2008, ahead of the Great Financial Crisis, which started with the collapse of Bear Stearns. When Bear Stearns collapsed, gold was taken down over the course of the next 7 months from $1035 to $680, or 34%; silver from $21 to $8, or 62%. The most violent takedown occurred as Lehman collapsed and Goldman Sachs was about to collapse. This takedown occurred during a period of time when gold should have been going parabolic in price. The price of gold finally took off in late October 2008 from $680 to $1900 while the Government and the Fed were busy printing money to bail out the banks. While the price of gold rose nearly 300% from late 2008 to September 2011, the U.S. dollar lost over 17% of its value, falling from 89 on the dollar index to 73.50.
The current takedown of gold from $1900 to $1200 has occurred during a period of time when financial and political fraud and corruption becomes worse and more blatant by the day. Along with this, the intensity and openness with which the metals are systematically beat down seems to grow by the day.
Comex futures trade 23 hours a day via a global computerized trading system known as Globex. The heaviest period of trading occurs when the actual Comex floor operations are open, which is 8:20 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. EST. All other times Comex futures trade electronically via Globex. Gold and silver are smashed primarily during the Globex-only trading periods, when volume is often light to non-existent.
This graph of Comex futures trading on December 16th shows the sudden plunge in the price of silver.
The second stage of the sharp price drop begins at 1:30 pm eastern time (11:30 mountain time), after the Comex floor trading operation was closed for the day. This is typically one of the lowest volume trading periods, during which orders to buy or sell can cause significant price disruption to the market. There were no news or events that would have triggered the sudden selling of bullion futures, and none of the other markets experienced unusual movements while gold and silver were quickly plunging in price.
To put in perspective the 9,767 silver contracts sold in 15 minutes, the total trading volume in Comex silver for the 23-hour global trading period for Comex contracts ending at 5:00 p.m. on December 15th was 149,964 contracts, or an average of 6,520 contracts per hour. The only type of market participant that would dump almost 10,000 contracts in a 15-minute period is a seller whose only motivation is to push the price of silver as low as possible. One entity that can afford to use capital like this is the Federal Reserve, because the Fed can create its own capital for free using the printing press.
In the background, the financial markets are becoming increasingly pressured by declines in emerging market currencies, insolvent sovereign governments–including here in the US–and perhaps a renewed derivatives crisis triggered by the collapse in the price of oil. The oil price decline could result in derivative problems larger than the subprime mortgage derivatives of the 2008 crisis.
The downward manipulation of the prices of precious metals prevents the "crisis warning transmission system" from properly functioning. More important, the decline in the price of gold/silver vs. the U.S. dollar conveys the illusion that the dollar is strong at a time when, in fact, the dollar should be under pressure from the over-issuance of dollars and dollar-denominated debt.
What we have been experiencing since the 2008 crisis is not only the subordination of US economic policy to the needs of banks "too big to fail," but also the subordination of law and the financial regulatory agencies to the interests of a few private banks. The manipulation of the bullion markets is illegal whether done by private parties or on public authority, and so we have the spectacle of the US government supporting a handful of banks via illegal means. Not only has economic accountability been set aside, but also legal accountability.
Just as Washington places itself above laws prohibiting torture and naked aggression in order to conduct its self-declared "war on terror" and above the Constitution in order to construct a domestic police state, Washington places itself above the laws prohibiting market manipulation.
Obviously, the government's claim to represent the rule of law is as false as all its other claims. The foul stench of corruption and hypocrisy that emanates from Washington is the smell of a dying country.
Metals are mixed tonight...
http://www.kitco.com
Plummeting lease rates now... ridiculous... link back for the lease rate chart...
Fascinating: Marshall Swing: Gold & Silver’s Day of Reckoning to Begin 9/23/15!
Posted on November 10, 2014 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-gold-silvers-day-of-reckoning-to-begin-92315/
Sold out... paper price depressed but ZERO USMint availability...
Powerful AND telling... found at Goldseek:
The Timing Is Curious
-- Posted Monday, 20 October 2014 | By Bill Holter
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1413819395.php
We just finished a wildly volatile week in most all markets across the entire world. Stocks were dumped early and then pumped at the end of the week, interest rates were dumped until the end of the week and oil simply crashed and actually "sniffed" at a "7" handle. Greece came completely apart at the seams with their stock market and bond markets collapsing.
An obvious question would be "why". Why did all of this happen this week? An obvious answer which surely would be a contributor is the spread (or fear) of the Ebola virus. But this is truly a strange duck and one I'm not really sure what to make of. By now I am sure you saw the picture of the Ebola patient wrapped up in a Hazmat suit surrounded by three others in Hazmat suits and ... a guy with a clipboard? The "clipboard guy" apparently even flew with the patient as there were pictures of him again after the flight ...what's up with this? Even more strange, president Obama kissed the nurses who were caring for an Ebola patient? Is there an antidote? Is it a manmade virus? Is it real? Is it a "bio weapon" gone bad or "escaped" by "accident on purpose"?
There are all sorts of questions to this which we really don't have the answers to but suffice it to say, an Ebola pandemic (real or just perceived) would be enough to shut this country (and the financial world) down. It could be used as a scapegoat for crashing markets, financial closures, martial law and mass quarantining of population segments. If it is real, what a tragedy. If it is not, yet is used for "cover" and a "reason" for societal and financial collapse, what a travesty. As for Ebola arising just now, I say the "timing is curious" to say the least... especially since there are reports this is a manmade virus.
Another area of "timing" was the emergence of Fed Governor Bullard on Friday morning. If you recall, he was boisterous on October 9th when he said "we should be willing to remove some accommodation". Friday morning he flip flopped and said "a logical response at this point is to delay the end of QE". It is important to understand why he has said what he said and in particular "when". The markets and the dollar were rising and crushing emerging currencies and markets by Oct. 9th, Mr. Bullard stepped in and tried to jawbone some of the building froth from our markets. It only took a week later and some 1,500 Dow points for him to step out and reverse his words.
There are several problems here as I see it. First, the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don't. The stock markets threw a taper tantrum and dropped nearly 10% in six or seven trading days. In order to placate the equity markets, QE cannot be shut down. On the other hand, the Fed cannot continue QE or begin another round because there simply are not enough Treasuries outstanding for them to purchase. Let me rephrase this, there are enough but whatever the Fed buys ...they are taking out of the collateral pool which then can no longer be lent against. This in effect actually lowers the amount of credit outstanding which "de"flates rather than "re"flates.
Another problem is the leverage that the Fed itself is taking on. Their capital is now levered at nearly 80 to 1. The big banks were levered nearly 30-35 to one back in 2008 and we all know how well that worked out. What will the Fed do? Lever themselves over 100 to 1 and blow their balance sheet up another $ trillion? I suppose they could try this but the markets at some point are going to call their bluff. The Fed has no margin for error now, a bigger balance sheet and higher leverage will only make the collapse when it comes that much more horrific. Do you believe there are any odds whatsoever that the Fed can ever even hint at the reality of higher rates? No matter who would like to deny this truth, "tapering is in fact tightening" and no amount of words can change this. Make no mistake, this is ultimately, and will also be seen as a "solvency" problem for the Fed itself. Going one step further, the Fed acted as a white knight back in 2008 and '09, they have now put themselves in a very poor position because they are now the ones in need of a white knight. Not only will they NOT be seen as the white knight, they very well could become the problem itself?
We also got news at the end of the week, India imported 100 tons of gold for the month of September ...this was about half of all gold mined for the month. There was also a report from Shanghai, they imported over 68 tons for the WEEK! If China were to import at this run rate, they would import 3,500 tons over the course of a year. This is an impossibility over the long run as the rest of the world only produces 2,200 tons. I bring this up because again, we have more evidence of demand completely dwarfing supply while price remains weak. "Apologize" however much or in whatever manner you'd like, physical demand is blowing out the actual supply while the price is being suppressed. I believe there is also a "timing issue" here, something behind the scenes is in a precarious state, the "alarm bell" must be silenced.
Last weekend in Washington, the G-20 held a finance minister and central banker meeting. Do you find it at all odd that immediately following this meeting the markets have become unstuck? What was discussed or decided behind these closed doors? The annual G-20 meeting will be held next month in Brisbane Australia, has or is something being decided? Is something "being" decided "for" the U.S. and her dollar? Curious timing?
One other area which received little to no press were events in France and also Italy. French bond yields diverged higher from the rest of the core Euro states and they basically have thumbed their noses at the deficit spending targets they were given. Italy did a currency swap earlier this year and an 8 billion euro trade deal with China this past week. Again, the timing is curious because Italy is one of the European weak sisters in need of assistance. Germany has her hands tied trying to support Greece from collapse ...so in comes China to help a struggling Italy. The fracturing of the Eurozone may be a result of the coming reset? Again, timing?
I bring this last paragraph forth because China has to this point only "courted" western business as opposed to going head to head with the U.S.. I received a note the other day which stated "China could make gasoline $100 per gallon any time of their choosing". I initially scratched my head on this one but after 10 seconds I "got it". China can pull the plug on the dollar any time they choose. Once this is done, hyperinflation will beset our nation and $100 per gallon may become a conservative number. The upcoming G-20 meeting will be of particular interest to me because I believe there will be (maybe already are?)decisions made "for" the U.S. as opposed to the traditional "by" the U.S.. I believe the problem is now seen globally to be the Federal Reserve, I also believe the world is working to "fix" the problem. More on this tomorrow.
Regards,
Bill Holter
We work with a convention of market "closes" that hardly applies in these days of 24-hour markets. How important is the Comex closing when you can still trade later all around the world? Today makes that plain. Gold's $1,205.30 close looks weak, but in fact it ran up to $1,223.60, the next resistance area, nearly $20 higher, AND above the $1,218.70 20 DMA. At 1745c, silver stands only ten cents from punching through the downtrend line, and only 30 cents from its 20 DMA. Indicators have all turned up, pointing to higher prices.
- commentary from Franklin Sanders
gold jinyu Oct. 7th gold price trend analysis
International gold price raised from a bottom line yesterday, made a sharp rebound from 1190 to 1200. At the end of U.S. trading time climbed to about 1206, continuous fall gathered support for gold’s rebound. In today’s Asian trading, gold raised slightly and based around 1204.
U.S. September conference board employment trends index is better than expected, yet fed's employment market index doesn’t reach monthly average, added by the correction of USDX, gold recovered its loss and climbed to 1200. The job market, on the other hand, is still pressuring gold. Currently gold daily chart based around 1200, pressure comes from 1209, support from 1195. find out more in hj9999.com
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