Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$GOLD Bid/Ask 1185.30 / 1186.30
Seriously, this is the invisible inflexion point... the bull is now.
The Bull is on... PERIOD.
Straight up... In Defense of Gold
Tuesday September 29, 2015 14:40
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-29/In-Defense-of-Gold.html
Calls on $GOLD futures flying off the shelves!!! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!
Yikes... Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/09/2015 11:32 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-09/something-just-snapped-comex
The Many Uses of Gold
Wednesday September 02, 2015 15:46
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-02/The-Many-Uses-of-Gold.html
Nothing new here... no traction yet...
The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold
Aug. 10, 2015 3:40 AM ET
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3421396-the-big-long-goldman-sachs-and-hsbc-buy-7_1-tons-of-physical-gold?ifp=0
This Stunning Event Has Only Happened One Other Time In The History Of The Gold Market
from KingWorldNews:
http://kingworldnews.com/this-has-only-happened-one-other-time-in-the-history-of-the-gold-market/
Gold And Silver Shortages Become Acute – GLD Is Being Looted Again
July 20, 2015
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-shortages-become-acute-gld-is-being-looted-again/
* A client of mine, a jeweler just called. His refiner called him – looking to buy gold or silver. The refiner has very tight stock. My client buys “shots” to melt and builds into rings etc. His refiner volunteered info on the selling this am – says the system is manipulated, which shocked the client only in that it was openly admitted. When my client’s refiner needs product you know there is a shortage. This is the first time in 10 years this refiner said there were shortages. – A colleague and friend of mine who manages high net worth accounts
GATA was the first in this country to warn, based on a historically very reliable source from London, that there would be acute shortages of gold and silver this fall at refiners in Europe. A few weeks later the mint announces that it is suspending sales of one ounce silver eagles until at least August. And it now looks like GLD is being looted.
At the same time, both gold and silver eagle sales in June went vertical in June. Last week the amount of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange – 61.8 tonnes – was the 8th largest weekly withdrawal on record.
This is Gresham’s Law in motion. Bad money chases good money out of the system. Above-ground stocks of physical gold and silver are disappearing because people “in the know” are converting their fiat Monopoly money into many different forms of gold and silver that is being safekept outside the corrupted and criminal banking custodial systems.
While anti-establishment analysts try to decipher and explain the ongoing asset bubbles that have reappeared since the Central Banks emarked on the mission of re-inflating the bubbles that led to the defacto financial collapse of the western banking system in 2008, perhaps the biggest bubble of them all is the one that has been blown in paper gold and silver.
As I have been documenting on this site, the amount of open interest in paper Comex gold contracts has gone parabolic in the last few weeks – here and here. The open interest in gold went up again on Friday by 274 contracts to 474k. This is 47.4 million ounces or 1,378 tonnes of paper gold – an amount of paper gold that exceeds the amount of physical gold held by most countries globally.
But more significantly, this amount of paper gold is 98x greater than the actual amount of physical gold held in Comex accounts that is classified as “available to be delivered.” In other words, the amount of paper gold outstanding on the Comex is 99% fraudulent. In relation to the underlying fundamentals and in relation to the actual amount of physical product available, the bubble in Comex paper gold is the largest in history. Then add to this the amount of paper vs. physical in London, estimated conservatively to at least 100:1 – right Jeff? (Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group).
I find it quite amusing that bullion market professionals like John Hathaway – Tocqueville Gold Fund Manager – Bron Suchecki – Perth Mint – have finally come out of the woodwork and admitted what has been obvious for over 15 years: Hathaway manipulation confessional; Suchecki manipulation confessional. GATA was much more gentle and diplomatic in its assessment of Hathaway’s “mea culpa” than I am, to quote Big Bill: “Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once,” William Shakespeare.
Here’s what blatant manipulation of any market looks like when the paper version of the same is allowed to trade unchecked by those who are in charge of applying the laws already in place to prevent this:
I guess when the market intervention becomes this obvious, even people like John Hathaway and Bron are forced into admitting the obvious, but only out of fear of being branded idiots by the truth. As John Brimelow of JB’s Gold Jottings puts it: “The scale and brazenness of these raids is increasingly looking like April and June of 2013.”
As for GLD, a startling 11.63 tonnes was removed on Friday, taking the total reported tonnage down to 696 tonnes. It’s the lowest since September 19, 2008, when the price of gold closed on the Comex at $860. I have written about this in the past and will do so more going forward, but it is likely that GLD does not even have 696 tonnes of gold sitting in its vaults that is unencumbered by hypothecation or lease agreements. Or is just outright not there.
The prospectus of GLD – which I have gone over line by line several times over the years – makes it clear that GLD is nothing more than another derivative form of gold. Furthermore, I know of big players who have requested redemption of the gold from GLD in exchange for their shares – as prescribed by the prospectus – but who were denied – as is also prescribed in the prospectus. In other words, GLD is nothing more than a device used by the bullion banks – acting on behalf of the western Central Banks – to source gold when needed due to extreme shortages in order to make deliveries to parties who they can not deny. Like China, India and Russia. Or the OPEC States.
The global economy and financial system are collapsing, including and especially the United States. While the powers that be can resort to outright criminal behavior to continue kicking the “collapse can” down the road for a while longer, it is imperative that they prevent the price of gold from signalling to the world that something is wrong. What is happening now strikingly similar to what occurred starting in March 2008, right before Bear Stearns et al began to fall like a house of cards in a wind tunnel.
The amount of effort and degree of criminality involved in this latest effort to push down the price of gold with Ponzi paper is directly proportional to the severity of the economic and financial problem winding its way toward us still hidden behind fraudulent bookkeeping and propaganda. But if 2008 was the equivalent of a small roadside bomb in Afghanistan, what will soon hit our system will be like a nuclear bomb detonating in Times Square.
Gold Panic
July 21, 2015 | Author Pater Tenebrarum
Another Capitulation…
Early on Monday in Asian trading, someone (or something, like a trading algorithm) sold quite a bit of gold in the futures market. Apparently the sale was so overwhelming that circuit breakers were triggered twice. Someone seems to have developed an odd predilection for selling a lot of gold futures at precisely those times when futures market liquidity is at its thinnest – as the same thing happened again after the close of official COMEX trading on Monday, in what is nomally a “quiet period”.
There are many ways in which such a seemingly strange trade (which ensures one doesn’t get the best price) can potentially pay off. For instance, it could generate a big profit for outright short positions taken at an earlier stage, by triggering the sell stops of other traders. It could also pay off if a large options position was previously bought, either on gold futures directly or perhaps on closely related instruments like gold stocks or ETFs on gold stocks.
A second capitulation after the 2014 capitulation move.
The most interesting action took indeed place in gold stocks. The HUI Index produced an RSI of slightly above 11 on its daily chart, after declining for a record 10th day in a row. This RSI reading is the lowest in the history of the index (the previous record low was produced in 1998 at about 16). Moreover, gold stocks have now broken every historical bear market record in the sector. Not only is this by now the biggest decline on record, the sector (as measured by the BGMI) is also trading at a record low relative to the gold price – undercutting the previous record low established in 1942 in the mini-crash following the Pearl Harbor attack.
The reason why this move deserves to be called another capitulation is that it has something in common with the 2008 and 2014 capitulation lows: in both cases record high trading volume was recorded (not in all gold stocks, but in selected stocks, resp. ETFs). This time it was the turn of the GDX, of which nearly 170 million shares traded on Monday, dwarfing all previous trading volume spikes by a huge margin:
Trading volume in GDX explodes.
A number of the declines in individual gold stocks seemed downright silly – e.g. ABX, the world’s largest gold miner by output, saw its shares decline by almost 16%. This is remarkable even by the sector’s standards of volatility, but it is even more so if one considers that ABX was already trading below its low of 2000 before Monday’s decline. When ABX made its low in 2000, the gold price was at $270. We are not particularly enamored of ABX by the way (we think it has way too much debt), we’re merely using it for the purpose of illustration here.
Naturally, there is no evidence yet that a low is in – but one can certainly compare the current situation with similar events in the past. Irrespective of whether such extremes were recorded during bull or bear markets, a sizable rebound has tended to happen very soon thereafter.
This is to say, traders can probably look forward to a playable and possibly quite respectable bounce fairly soon, regardless of the market’s longer term direction. The caveat to this is that just as usually happens in a blow-off move in a bubble, very large percentage moves tend to occur in the final stages of anti-bubble blow-off moves as well, and a mere one or two days can make a big difference with respect to the entry prices on offer. Usually it is best to wait for some evidence that a turn in prices has actually begun.
Support Levels, Sentiment and Fundamentals
We have recently discussed gold’s lackluster reaction to the (for now) fast receding “Grexit” threat (see “Gold and the Grexit Threat” for details), and on this occasion pointed out that it was certainly possible for the gold price in dollar terms to move to the next major “price attractor”, namely the support/resistance level established in March of 2008 near $1,040-$1,050. This level was almost reached on Monday morning (the low was around $1,080).
We presented a few sentiment and positioning data as well in that article, several of which will only be updated later this week. We have near real time data on Rydex precious metals assets, which have declined by another 15% to a new record low, as well as the CEF discount to NAV, which stands at minus 10.30% (CEF is a closed end bullion fund holding both gold and silver bullion). This is not quite a record yet, but a pretty extreme reading nevertheless. People are prepared to voluntarily sell you gold and silver bullion at a more than 10% discount, a sign that they remain very bearish indeed.
It is a fair bet that a number of other sentiment and positioning indicators will also produce new negative records this week. Kitco reported on Friday (i.e., before Monday’s clubbing) that in its survey “68% Of Main Street And Wall Street Are Negative On Gold”, which if memory serves is quite an extreme unanimity of opinion in this particular poll as well.
Not surprisingly, the mainstream financial media have been brim-full with bearish pronouncements on gold over the past two weeks, and the grave dancing by assorted gold bears reached something of a crescendo on Monday as well. Here are two examples:
“Gold Slump is Here to Stay” (sure?), or the droll
“Let’s Be Honest About Gold, It’s a Pet Rock”
There is no need to discuss the usual canards forwarded by mainstream gold bears again (“gold is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it” – duh!), but we would note that most of the grave dancers somehow failed to grace us with their opinions while gold rallied from $250 to $1,900 between 1999 and 2011.
It is certainly true though that the fundamental backdrop for gold (credit spreads, the steepness of the yield curve, inflation expectations, money supply growth rates, performance of alternative investment assets, the US dollar’s trend, faith in central banks and other central planners, etc.) has tended to be slightly bearish and at best occasionally neutral over the past two to three years.
Obviously, this applies somewhat less to gold in terms of currencies other than the US dollar; for instance, the ECB is inflating the euro area’s money supply at warp speed, and this certainly has an effect on the gold price in euro terms. The ministrations of the BoJ have also left their mark on the yen gold price. Although the recent decline has also led to a decline in gold prices in these currencies, prices remain a good sight above their previous lows.
Gold in euro and yen terms.
Whether one thinks of the recent decline as an opportunity – or at least a developing opportunity – depends on more than just the short term fundamental and technical picture though. In our opinion, it is apodictically certain that the current global experiment in central banking on steroids will end with a major denouement. Very likely it will dwarf all the busts we have witnessed in the post WW2 era to date.
Of course this opinion is quite contrary to the widespread new-found faith in central planning that has reigned in recent years (investors evidently have very short attention spans). However, this misguided faith is only one of the elements driving the situation. In the short to medium term, it may even appear justified to observers focused on various indicators of economic activity – just as Greenspan’s easy money policy seemed to “work” until it didn’t anymore.
Underneath the superficial data, the economy has been and continues to be severely undermined by distortions in relative prices, the associated falsification of economic calculation and the malinvestment this engenders. It was easy to buy “too early” in the cyclical gold bear market since 2011. However, we believe that a day will come when this will hardly matter. On that day, the price at which one has bought will be secondary to the question of whether one actually has any gold at all.
Obviously, this latter remark reflects only our personal opinion and will depend greatly on the future actions of policymakers, which cannot be foreseen with certainty. However, what we have said above about the effects of loose monetary policy on the economy is definitely not just a matter of opinion.
An empirical indicator of the imbalances in the economy’s production structure due to credit expansion-induced malinvestment: the ratio of capital to consumer goods production.
Conclusion:
For those already invested in the gold sector, the current breakdown is undoubtedly painful, but this shall pass. Those not yet invested or holding only little exposure should definitely regard the situation as an excellent opportunity. Even for short term traders a chance to play a sizable rebound is likely not too far away.
In the longer term, this downturn remains in our opinion comparable to the mid-1970s correction, which was of roughly similar size. Back then the press was also full with gold obituaries, but the price took off again because the underlying economic problems had not been solved.
Have the underlying economic problems been truly solved this time around? We really don’t think so. Global debt levels have increased sharply since the last major crisis, which was likewise induced by a combination of too much debt and enormous capital malinvestment. We would argue that the underlying economic situation has gotten worse, not better. Economic activity by itself is telling us very little – during credit expansions it merely tends to mask capital consumption. Gold will therefore shine again, even though it has obviously greatly disappointed its fans since 2011.
Charts by: StockCharts, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research
Banksters Unleash a Golden, Sunday-Evening, Drive-by Shooting
post date JULY 20, 2015 by the Wealth Watchman
http://thewealthwatchman.com/banksters-unleash-a-golden-sunday-evening-drive-by-shooting/
A dose of reality... harsh... admonishing truthfulness... unlike anything I have read in the past but somehow wondered aloud at my desk the last 2-3 months.. this needs to be absorbed, at the link above, not just read like all the others... FWIW
Jim Willie and Bill Holter give me cause for pause but this is inescapably different...
Metals in collapse mode...manipulated, of course...
More down as far as I can see... not to be negative but I'm just going with the flow... for now, the flow is down.
Gold Bashers Ramp Up the MOPE!
Posted on June 17, 2015 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-bashers-ramp-up-the-mope/
From #2 on my list of favorite authors:
Those Crazy Gold Bugs!
-- Posted Monday, 1 June 2015
By Bill Holter
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1433170054.php
Rather than write about the economy, the markets or geopolitics, today let's look at something a little different. It's important every once in a while to step back and take in the big picture because we are all guilty of getting too close or "finite" if you will. We fight the daily battles while losing sight of what the war is really about. Gold advocates otherwise known as "gold bugs" have been worn down by the daily battles, some have even forgotten what the real war is. Gold bugs, these are the "crazies" out there who are described as nuts or "conspiracy theorists". We know now they were not "theorists" at all. JP Morgan's $32 billion paid in fines along with many other fined and censured firms is proof of conspiracy FACT!
The term itself "gold bugs" is disparaging as if gold advocates are like some sort of cockroaches running around and dirtying up the place. It is true that some "advocates" go off half cocked and see everything as a conspiracy, I have even come across some who are so fervent they believe in gold as some sort of "religion". It is not. "Gold" as JP Morgan once said "is money, nothing else". Gold is in fact money, it is real money that has value on its own and not "legislated" or as it is in today's world, "mandated upon" the public. Most Americans who are reading this may have a difficult time understanding it even though true, many foreigners are nodding their heads with a slight smile! It should be pointed out, everything these crazy gold bugs have been saying about the world from a "fiscal" standpoint has and is in fact coming to fruition. It has not happened "when" nor as soon as they believed it would (me included), because the current insanity of balance sheets could never have been imagined even 10 years ago ...however, "timing" does not change "the ending"!
Stepping back and looking at the forest rather than the trees, collectively a very large part of the world is in a state of bankruptcy even though not declared, recognized or admitted. No matter how you look at it or on what level (state, corporate or individual), the standard of living is broadly in decline globally. (Yes I know, that top 1% or even .1% is living well and improving with each drop of sucked blood they receive from the system.) While choosing this topic to write about, I had no idea how fortuitous the timing was. Within 15 minutes of beginning this piece, a link to an interview of none other than Alan Greenspan, Richard Fisher, and Lawrence Lindsey hit my inbox!
I could only chuckle after watching the interview because my entire writing can now consist of "yeah, what they said!". Rather than write an entire article on this, I believe it might be better to let you watch what I was going to write, and we can move on to the "motives" of these three telling "mostly" the truth. If you watch this interview, please keep in mind this one question "...and the alternative is"?
Why exactly would these former Federal Reservists hint that, mathematically, logically, intuitively and in real life, IT'S OVER! They did back peddle a little bit as the interview went on but "why" or better yet why now? I believe they know what the crazy gold bugs have been saying all along is true and the day of reckoning is very close at hand. They must be trying to get "out in front" of what is coming so they're on the record for historical and "legacy" purposes. Nothing else makes any sense. Are they "trying" to torpedo the system or to break confidence? I highly doubt it but after watching the interview, would any kid with a paper route invest their money into the current system? Are they trying to bad mouth the Fed now they are no longer employed there? No, in fact, they each one pointed the blame at Congress. It's Congress' fault we are in this mess! "They" (Congress) spent the money and made the promises which cannot be honored and will ultimately be broken.
There is a punch line of course, one these three men don't want you to hear! Actually, the joke AND the punch line are both one in the same, "the money itself is bad and is the core to ALL economic and financial problems!". You see, Congress could never had authorized all of the spending if the Treasury did not have the "money" in its coffers. Yes Treasury could have borrowed money but would have been restrained if "money" was gold or something "real". The only way that Congress has been able to get away with bankrupting the country was with the aid of ... yes, the FEDERAL RESERVE these guys used to work for! The Fed has in fact underwritten the scheme, if there was no Fed ...the leverage could never have been built into the system. Greenspan, Fisher and Lindsey of course know this but they can never admit it. Were they to admit it, it would be an admission that they knew all along they were driving the bus over a cliff ...with a roadmap wide open!
All three spoke about the current state of interest rates and the unsustainability of the situation. They ask "why", for what good reason are interest rates at levels only justified by a crisis? The answer of course is; we are still in a crisis, we never exited and if rates HAD been increased ...their greatest fears would have already been realized! Mathematically, rates cannot go higher because of the inability to service interest payments (not to mention blowing up the leveraged interest rate derivatives) would come front and center. They are trying to say the inability to pay is guaranteed to come ...but is a future event. If rates were to rise now, it becomes a current event. It's really this simple!
Lawrence Lindsey even said at the 45 minute mark, "this is how they all end ...including Zimbabwe"! All "what" Larry? Fiat currencies? Or central banks who issue them? This brings me to another article which has come out and ties in perfectly. Actually, it ties in so well we can bring this entire article full circle and back to one of the gold bugs most central theses. Zerohedge posted an article regarding a systemic bet being made by billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer. Mr. Singer's strategy is simple, he calls it the "bigger short". He believes interest rates have only one way to go, up. He also believes we will see far more staggering defaults than we did in 2008-09. He believes shorting the debt of the world is a no brainer trade and one where you can win ALL the marbles.
Zerohedge of course picked up on the "minor flaw" in this strategy. The very same flaw I might add that Harry Dent, Martin Armstrong and others are missing. You see, when you "win", you must be "paid", but paid in "what" is the question. Assuming Mr. Singer is correct and the system does collapse on itself and he "wins". His win of course will be HUGE ...but, he will be paid in dollars or euros or whatever fiat currency his trade is done in. What will his winnings be worth if the currency itself is worth nothing? It reminds me of Mikhail Barishnikoff in the movie "White Nights", he had a stack full of worthless rubles and threw them handful after handful up in the air while saying "rubles, rubles, lots and lots of rubles". He had money ...but it wasn't worth anything.
You see, the currencies themselves are supported by the very debt Mr. Singer is selling short and expects to collapse! Which now brings us back full circle to the crazy gold bugs. This is exactly what they have been saying all along, a debt default will also mean a collapse in confidence of the currencies themselves and direct "fear capital" back into real money. This will create huge demand, force supply into hiding and additionally revalue gold higher because the currencies themselves are losing value and confidence. Gold bugs are not so different from those who see the dangers in the system from overheated markets and overleveraged debtors. The only difference is that these nut jobs want what hasn't been for nearly 50 years, they want TRUE and REAL "SETTLEMENT"! They actually want to get paid in something real! How crazy is that?
Regards, Bill Holter for;
Holter/Sinclair collaboration.
Gold up big-time today. Central bankers having a hard time hiding the data that shows the Eurozone's paltry 0.4% growth is still outpacing US growth...which I suspect is negative. China slowing considerably too.
The numbers don't lie.
Weird action in the metals this week... even the bonds, major markets and the dollar took a beating... contrived, of course.
Pro-Life thank you, Massive Returns Expected From Gold Mining Companies -
Thursday, April 23, 2015 8:08
ex....
http://beforeitsnews.com/gold-and-precious-metals/2015/04/massive-returns-expected-from-gold-mining-companies-2639814.html
EUROPEAN GOLD FORUM 2015 > WEBCAST - Caledonia Mining Corporation -
http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf15/egf15-webcast/egf15-webcast-stream.html
5 Catalysts That Will Spark a Bull Market in Gold and Silver -
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13118966/1/5-catalysts-that-will-spark-a-bull-market-in-gold-and-silver.html
God Bless
Metals blasted today... ouch.
$GOLD P&F Chart Bullish Price Objective revised downward: $1309
Is the price of gold headed above $20,000?
http://kingworldnews.com/price-gold-really-headed-20000/
CALVF NO DEBT - 8% dividend - Gold produced @ $599/oz -
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110308416
Gold & Silver is the only REAL Legal Tender -
by The Founding Fathers -
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/monie.htm
God Bless
Bottom... look at it... time to go long and stay that way for a while.
I saw that! So much strength in gold right now. I'm looking to buy more on dips but there's barely any. My only reservation is the RSI on the chart has moved into Overbought mode, but I've seen stocks run a year straight with the RSI pegged, so it may not matter. Gold is a fundamental mover right now more than technical anyway.
This year will be the year that the 10+ year bull run continues, imo.
Overnight, gold breaks $1300...
Good report! The last 2 years have been a gift to buy Gold/silver at these levels, imo.
Gold Market Update
originally published January 19th, 2015
Clive Maund
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
Click the link above for tons of charts...
Folks better hold some physical gold in this world. The budget that was passed in December by Obama, and no one was allowed to read it, contained new language written by none else than the BIG banks of Wall Street.
Evidently anyone with a Savings account in a bank has been re-defined as a "Creditor" instead of a customer. They also flipped the Asset Liquidation waterfall priorities (for bankruptcy cases) so that shareholders get paid first and Creditors get paid last in the banking industry. What does this mean? It means they're setting us up for a Bail-in in this country.
It means that when the banks declare bankruptcy (and they will) the shareholders (i.e. Board of Directors) will get paid first, then liabilities, then way down at the bottom the Creditors will get screwed. Another words, they're going to steal the hard earned savings from Americans to pay off their massive gambling losses.
I'm advising everyone I know to start moving money out of savings accounts. Checking accounts may not be much better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Pensions get fleeced too.
Hate to say it but metals are not a picture of health and strength chart wise.
The Lawless Manipulation of Bullion Markets by Public Authorities
Paul Craig Roberts - December 23, 2014
http://www.thedailybell.com/editorials/35939/Paul-Craig-Roberts-The-Lawless-Manipulation-of-Bullion-Markets-by-Public-Authorities/
Note: In this article the times given are Eastern Standard Time. The software that generated?the graph uses Mountain Standard Time. Therefore, read the x-axis two hours later than the axis indicates.
Metals are mixed tonight...
http://www.kitco.com
Plummeting lease rates now... ridiculous... link back for the lease rate chart...
Fascinating: Marshall Swing: Gold & Silver’s Day of Reckoning to Begin 9/23/15!
Posted on November 10, 2014 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-gold-silvers-day-of-reckoning-to-begin-92315/
Sold out... paper price depressed but ZERO USMint availability...
Powerful AND telling... found at Goldseek:
The Timing Is Curious
-- Posted Monday, 20 October 2014 | By Bill Holter
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1413819395.php
We just finished a wildly volatile week in most all markets across the entire world. Stocks were dumped early and then pumped at the end of the week, interest rates were dumped until the end of the week and oil simply crashed and actually "sniffed" at a "7" handle. Greece came completely apart at the seams with their stock market and bond markets collapsing.
An obvious question would be "why". Why did all of this happen this week? An obvious answer which surely would be a contributor is the spread (or fear) of the Ebola virus. But this is truly a strange duck and one I'm not really sure what to make of. By now I am sure you saw the picture of the Ebola patient wrapped up in a Hazmat suit surrounded by three others in Hazmat suits and ... a guy with a clipboard? The "clipboard guy" apparently even flew with the patient as there were pictures of him again after the flight ...what's up with this? Even more strange, president Obama kissed the nurses who were caring for an Ebola patient? Is there an antidote? Is it a manmade virus? Is it real? Is it a "bio weapon" gone bad or "escaped" by "accident on purpose"?
There are all sorts of questions to this which we really don't have the answers to but suffice it to say, an Ebola pandemic (real or just perceived) would be enough to shut this country (and the financial world) down. It could be used as a scapegoat for crashing markets, financial closures, martial law and mass quarantining of population segments. If it is real, what a tragedy. If it is not, yet is used for "cover" and a "reason" for societal and financial collapse, what a travesty. As for Ebola arising just now, I say the "timing is curious" to say the least... especially since there are reports this is a manmade virus.
Another area of "timing" was the emergence of Fed Governor Bullard on Friday morning. If you recall, he was boisterous on October 9th when he said "we should be willing to remove some accommodation". Friday morning he flip flopped and said "a logical response at this point is to delay the end of QE". It is important to understand why he has said what he said and in particular "when". The markets and the dollar were rising and crushing emerging currencies and markets by Oct. 9th, Mr. Bullard stepped in and tried to jawbone some of the building froth from our markets. It only took a week later and some 1,500 Dow points for him to step out and reverse his words.
There are several problems here as I see it. First, the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don't. The stock markets threw a taper tantrum and dropped nearly 10% in six or seven trading days. In order to placate the equity markets, QE cannot be shut down. On the other hand, the Fed cannot continue QE or begin another round because there simply are not enough Treasuries outstanding for them to purchase. Let me rephrase this, there are enough but whatever the Fed buys ...they are taking out of the collateral pool which then can no longer be lent against. This in effect actually lowers the amount of credit outstanding which "de"flates rather than "re"flates.
Another problem is the leverage that the Fed itself is taking on. Their capital is now levered at nearly 80 to 1. The big banks were levered nearly 30-35 to one back in 2008 and we all know how well that worked out. What will the Fed do? Lever themselves over 100 to 1 and blow their balance sheet up another $ trillion? I suppose they could try this but the markets at some point are going to call their bluff. The Fed has no margin for error now, a bigger balance sheet and higher leverage will only make the collapse when it comes that much more horrific. Do you believe there are any odds whatsoever that the Fed can ever even hint at the reality of higher rates? No matter who would like to deny this truth, "tapering is in fact tightening" and no amount of words can change this. Make no mistake, this is ultimately, and will also be seen as a "solvency" problem for the Fed itself. Going one step further, the Fed acted as a white knight back in 2008 and '09, they have now put themselves in a very poor position because they are now the ones in need of a white knight. Not only will they NOT be seen as the white knight, they very well could become the problem itself?
We also got news at the end of the week, India imported 100 tons of gold for the month of September ...this was about half of all gold mined for the month. There was also a report from Shanghai, they imported over 68 tons for the WEEK! If China were to import at this run rate, they would import 3,500 tons over the course of a year. This is an impossibility over the long run as the rest of the world only produces 2,200 tons. I bring this up because again, we have more evidence of demand completely dwarfing supply while price remains weak. "Apologize" however much or in whatever manner you'd like, physical demand is blowing out the actual supply while the price is being suppressed. I believe there is also a "timing issue" here, something behind the scenes is in a precarious state, the "alarm bell" must be silenced.
Last weekend in Washington, the G-20 held a finance minister and central banker meeting. Do you find it at all odd that immediately following this meeting the markets have become unstuck? What was discussed or decided behind these closed doors? The annual G-20 meeting will be held next month in Brisbane Australia, has or is something being decided? Is something "being" decided "for" the U.S. and her dollar? Curious timing?
One other area which received little to no press were events in France and also Italy. French bond yields diverged higher from the rest of the core Euro states and they basically have thumbed their noses at the deficit spending targets they were given. Italy did a currency swap earlier this year and an 8 billion euro trade deal with China this past week. Again, the timing is curious because Italy is one of the European weak sisters in need of assistance. Germany has her hands tied trying to support Greece from collapse ...so in comes China to help a struggling Italy. The fracturing of the Eurozone may be a result of the coming reset? Again, timing?
I bring this last paragraph forth because China has to this point only "courted" western business as opposed to going head to head with the U.S.. I received a note the other day which stated "China could make gasoline $100 per gallon any time of their choosing". I initially scratched my head on this one but after 10 seconds I "got it". China can pull the plug on the dollar any time they choose. Once this is done, hyperinflation will beset our nation and $100 per gallon may become a conservative number. The upcoming G-20 meeting will be of particular interest to me because I believe there will be (maybe already are?)decisions made "for" the U.S. as opposed to the traditional "by" the U.S.. I believe the problem is now seen globally to be the Federal Reserve, I also believe the world is working to "fix" the problem. More on this tomorrow.
Regards,
Bill Holter
We work with a convention of market "closes" that hardly applies in these days of 24-hour markets. How important is the Comex closing when you can still trade later all around the world? Today makes that plain. Gold's $1,205.30 close looks weak, but in fact it ran up to $1,223.60, the next resistance area, nearly $20 higher, AND above the $1,218.70 20 DMA. At 1745c, silver stands only ten cents from punching through the downtrend line, and only 30 cents from its 20 DMA. Indicators have all turned up, pointing to higher prices.
- commentary from Franklin Sanders
gold jinyu Oct. 7th gold price trend analysis
International gold price raised from a bottom line yesterday, made a sharp rebound from 1190 to 1200. At the end of U.S. trading time climbed to about 1206, continuous fall gathered support for gold’s rebound. In today’s Asian trading, gold raised slightly and based around 1204.
U.S. September conference board employment trends index is better than expected, yet fed's employment market index doesn’t reach monthly average, added by the correction of USDX, gold recovered its loss and climbed to 1200. The job market, on the other hand, is still pressuring gold. Currently gold daily chart based around 1200, pressure comes from 1209, support from 1195. find out more in hj9999.com
Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX!
Yes, a bit... Cheap Gold Stocks’ Upleg Intact
Adam Hamilton - September 19, 2014
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/cheap-gold-stocks’-upleg-intact
Aren't bonds a bit risky too? There's less confidence that municipalities can pay them off. Interest rates in Europe are approaching zero, with negative interest rates potentially on the horizon.
Own bonds and metals... I'm staying clear of stocks... Except to short...
Equities getting slammed today (09/25/2014)! Gold up slightly, bankers continuing their typical attack on silver.
Own them both, imo.
Followers
|
29
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
524
|
Created
|
07/13/08
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |