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I sold the rest at 5.42. Avg exit = ~5.05.
I still plan on going large when things come together....
Tomorrow may be the bottom of a 25%+ trade.
Silva should have some ammo against rouseff in regards to market, inflation, and another Q in technical recession.
Currency looks as though it may peak tomorrow.
Also trading in Brasil wasn't strong enough on its own; they want some currency's stability as well; more ammo for silva.
I've got a hawks eye on silver; as my marker along with Brasil trading.
With the gol plan; a currency trend change; and a run-off could lead to a solid over reaction to the positive side.
I posted a $10 share; out of emotions / anger in response to this currency move (last time a move happened like this was 2007 USA recession...
Captain - you've got it all right!
However; as a low $3 is possible....global issues, Europe war, Africa disease, Middle East terrorist, Asia democracy....brasilians having a party and brushing it off...3/1 brl/usd is not out of question: unlikely as it should be.
I did so very reluctantly....
I had no choice; I was virtually all in... My wife cut me off on taking a payday loan on my car (only asset) to leverage my position if BRL/USD continued on this ridiculous run.
My position to protect myself was sell at $5 if the trading in Brasil was bad as well. The trading in Brasil was terrible yesterday. I am willing to re-enter above my sell price if trading and currency takes a more positive trend....maybe I'll get luck and re-enter around $4?
I completely agree with your take on Brasil. I also believe the stock could be valued at $10+, depending on BRL/USD.
The Market is telling us NO WAY; I don't agree, but I also don't make the price.
We will see...
My short term concerns are: that the world cup tourism didn't make up enough of a difference for lack of business in Q3. This could lead to a FALSE IMPRESSION that Brasil is indeed in a recession. 3 Q's in a row with a negative GDP....(technical recession extended)
I am absolutely confident that no matter who is President Q4 and Q1 numbers will be huge across the board for Brasil! ESPECIALLY GOL. The only weakness may be commodity producing companies as you stated; but I believe they may also surprise to the positive side!
I am NOT scared by Brasil; I am actually more confident than ever before. I am protecting my capital and attempting to put myself in the best possible position for Q1-Q2 2015!
I may even buy back tomorrow? We will see....
This is shocking news learning curve. You loved this at $5.88 and now sell $1 lower??
The perception of brazil is that it's a mess - in reality, it isn't. Yes, iron ore and commodity producing companies are in dire straights, but gol is doing quite well in spite of all the noise....
Of course, it may go all the way back to $4 now....who knows. I think if the Gol really is to earn .25-30/eps next year, the stock is worth $7.50+. Market is telling us NO WAY.
We will see.
I sold 3/4 of my position here yesterday at 4.94 (bottom).
At current PPS if you can wait a bit; you will make some money for sure; however I think you can do better and wait a bit
What's up LC . Looks like a good buy low opp here. Why is it so cheap?
Check out $CYTX. it's finally bouncing I am loading the boat.
It appears as first glance that everything is forward...
Space tech: the think it, then try and do it.
Money: they chart it. The closest anybody comes to create money ideas is the fed printing press.
It really seems interstIng to me. Science (which is proven) actually has more creativity than conceptual theory does? It's like everything is backwards?
Theoretical engineering?
....classes start?
I'd take this major...
I couldn't agree more...
The only thing I heard that was more insane is the the BRL should be in the 3-4 range....the mexico comment? What a joke!a
I can't believe it; not only the current BRL/USD, but how fast the move took place.
What are the real movers behind FX; is it traded the same as equities?
At the end of day it is what it is; that's what I love about trading. Somebody can come up with excuses all they want, but that isn't going to change the reality of their portfolio.
So far; I'm sticking this out....as I can't find anything to justify this move beyond hearsay and fear reaction...
The gol settled at $R 12.96 which was up 2% in Brasil. Here, it close down almost 1% due to ridiculous currency move $2.38--2.43/usd
I think this currency move is insane. Inflation has been well with reason this year in Brasil, foreign investment was the highest in 8 months last month, etc. The brl trades as if Brasil is a 3rd world country, which is assinine. In fact, I have heard many analyst say Mexico is a better economic system now than Brasil which is an absolute joke! Dirty Mexico? Really??
All said, on US chart, the gol has giant support at $5.35 (bottom of short term channel). It has even bigger support at $5 (long term trend line). Unless brl breaks $2.50, I expect this level to hold. Furthermore, the gol has not been this short-term oversold in several years, and last time it tested trend line it rallied several dollars. The top of the channel is rising; timing wise, I would expect a new high within 60-90 days. Of course, it will be subject to brl, but I think it is going to stabilize here. Keep in mind cmdr K and cart boy have hedged for this! They are doing everything right from the smiles IPO, to manage the capacit, to the strateg, to the bond offering, etc.
Someday, Brasil will get back on track and the gol will be far higher than $7-8-9 in my opinion!
I had just written a long post....amd iPhone froze.
Shorter version....
Did you buy today? ADR or in Brasil?
I have 4 avenues for insight:
1. I have traveled there multiple times and go once a year (just attended world cup)
2. Father in law sells cardboard box packaging for a majority of Nestlé products (he is usually a good tell on market as a whole)
3. I have a few friends that recently started small biz
4. My wife has multiple friends and contacts in the meeting/ event planning industry (gives good insight into new corporate demand)
-----
Fx is really confusing me; especially yesterday...there were multiple low prints in the 2.39 range and it continued to rise. Let's see if it's a one day pullback or a downtrend is truely coming.
My only uncertainty is that the world cup will end up causing what "appears " to be a slow down in Brasil growth? If so, even with elections, how much can fx be pushed around?
My overall consensus regarding Brasil amd gol is completely in line with what you said. However I have not had time to fact check many of your points.
Thanks for sharing.
On another note; a dream would be to have a job that required travel between both counties...and a way to split life equally amongst the 2....Im hoping one day I can make it happen!!
No I don't live; fairly regularly connecrd though...
I'm blown away by fx. I'm extremely pissed about my position($5.88).
I will hold and ad at 10% losses.
I've sincerely been wondering how to validate my stupidity for a 5.88 position?
I can't come up with anything.
A 5.30 buy would avg me about 5.60 ( about 5% Off botim.....If it is bottom?)
I Expect a 2m + volume day then...
What the end of Q3 will look like for the GOL!!
First of all, CEO Kakinoff and cart boy Edmar have said the GOL has been adjusted to the new economic reality of Brasil = high volatility and weak currency. They clearly stated at GOL day that they feel the are well position for Fx weakness. The analyst Samanthi Shit complained about currency strength and how it works against the GOL and perhaps they should not be hedge - well now how looks like the fool!
So we have much better load factor coupled with low Fx most of Q3 and stable fuel price. The GOL should show very good Q3. Most important we will see:
$R $570,000,000 cash add to balance sheet from the Smiles capital reduction
$USD $85,000,000 from Air France investment in Q3
Total cash in excess of $R 3,500,000,000!
Then come the debt swaps; note tender and replace with 8.875% new Christmas present for the cart boy Edmar!
Operate margin in 5-6% range IMO
So maybe they post small loss or breakeven - THE PATIENT IS HEALING! Soon come profits!
With all that is happening, forget Brasil macro environment - demand is strong and capacit is tight. This stock is absolute gift at $5.40!!!!
Absolute GIFT!
You must buy hand over fist ASAP as the move above $7 will soon start.
The capitan knows!
Learning Curve,
Do you live in the Brasil? I ask because you post about the economy being better than reported, which I agree is very true.
The ibovespa selloff we are witnessing is ruthless, especially to the gol. However, inflation report just published states air fares are up 17.6% yoy! We know who the biggest beneficiary is of this - THE GOL.
I preficted the Reais would reach $2.41/USD and it has - I think this is the top for $R and the ibovespa has correct 10% in 15 days! I think the election will bring Brasil together and the markets will make new yearly highs soon. The GOL is becoming more and more volatile which means a total breakdown or breakout is coming soon - since I think $5 is absurd, I will bet on breakout ($7+)
I will buy 83,000 shares tomorrow. I feel the bottom can be very close.
Remember, the GOL was $6.75 in December of 2011 before the big pop to $9 and drop down to $3s. The company is in in 1000% better situation than December 2011 and even though, the share price is ridiculous trading for $1.35 less!
In that time leverage has dropped from 20x to 4x
Cash on the balance sheet has risen 2x
EBIT has drastically swung positive
Operate margin negative to positive
All in face of huge depreciation and recession (they say) in Brasil. What happens when things get just a slight bit better??!!
Looked into selling the only assets I have today. My car and my g scale trains....got a same day 50% value on car and 10% on trains. Didn't take it, but it's available.
I have 2 obligations essentially.
1. Be the beat human being I can be. (includes honestly, hard working, financially savy, moral,,,generalizations etc....)
2. To do what is best selflessly before what i want (decisions when to protect capital, when to pick a crying baby vs not, the way you teach somebody (have humility), anknodlwdwgr your own selfishness, die trying, .....number 1 (be the best I can)!
It's too early to sell the car.....what is best changes......
I'm calling bottom and possed I'm at 5.88(10%) above current pps
My apparent truth is I missed opportunity becuase capital is zero. Across the board of my recent decisions I have a 10% loss. How do I calculate my cash/opportunity losses?
85% portfolio in Gol at 5.88. Roughly 12% split between EGLE and NSPH...the last ~3% has a D on end of ticker or is a grey.
Timing eh? Idprefer a double on my other 2 equities and a 20% dip on gol. I could shave 10% off entry point and ad a ~25% stake in gol (with current funds)....I would double potentially via selling my car, etc....50% gains are imminent! As a minimum! IMO
Do I want a great week, 1 month, 6 months or a year????
That's my preference....
But a perfect would would be a quick 30%+ GOL run and then bleed some profits into other 2 equities if pps persist?
You only make money if you make more than 20% what you lose.....
So no 5.58? I'm curious what currency prints happened today? Any have access??
Couple thoughts; a bit of insight; and some theory for good measure; followed by "I don't care if it tanks"
It was interstIng that the dollar value was ~25% vs brl? I believe more affluent retail investors exist in the US (currently.....a better alternative might be less skeptic).
Does rousef or silva change pps? This whole presidential crap effects the EWZ and pbr. Sooner than later Gol will establish a new life within the ibevspa.
I can't write fast enough....the idea Brasil is in a recession is so retarded.
Money and biz is flying in like nothing before.
Gol strategy is awesome!
I will be holding a garage sale soon if she continues to drop.
If anybody likes G scale model railroads? Let me know....is love I be able to buy it all back within a couple months (it's the only thing I see as valuable lol. My car is for sale at 4.50?
Got intercepted....loss train of thought...
IMO, 5.58 is bottom and then she runs....unless massive money can move currency....I'd be beyond surprised if they can
Nice buy 27K shares....
I'm off by a day again...should have played the Friday game
I think today is bottom before next run; I may be off a day or 2. Virtually all in at 5.70
Time stamp. That's not cool. Government solicitation call right now?hmmm, who even has this number?
Captain? Anybody?
Take in fed rate increase interst rate? I think built in; if doesn't happen the pps makes massive move to 7.76 amd up....easy. I think currency could touch a 2.09brl to 1usd...
Honestly dissappointed in myself though; failed to have a major date on my calendar...I took a ~15% gain on half amd holding the other half with -10% losses (howeve I added a chunk today). I did maximize my gains because I didn't have fed date speculation...it's the same as my overlooking 10% yoy currency on the Q report. IMO pps reflects strength in plan, currency, amd bond re-finance.
Had to sell 1/3 of position at $7. I think I'm early, but being all in was a bit much.
It's looking more and more like $8+ maybe coming sooner than expected. We shall see, but I like the idea of $10-$12 next March
Nobody around...so so disappointing....no reasoning, no ideas, no charts, nothing.
Well, cheers to me and good luck...it was hard not to take some money off table today; especially when I have 90% portfolio here.
Here is to hoping for 3 to 10 more days like today in a row?!?!?
ID, your opinion here?
Added massive today. Got 90% portfolio in. Avg on this trade is 6.12....
Everything appears promising; except your chart opinion?
Could you provide a start idea on GOL buying back debt?
BOUGHT MASSIVE here today. Hopefully I'm right. Not sure how to interpet the news of buying debt?
I assume news is a positive, then massive volume, and a change in currency. couldn't resist.
All is well. Got a bit side tracked myself....still looking for balance, but getting closer...
What's your take, now?
Looks currency relative; lost its speculation so I cut a 1/3 today.
Currency it's annoying, but I know if embrace it I can make a ton of money.
Your ZHNE took a hit in January, but
prior to that you made a good call
at the 3 buck per share range. Have
kept eye on it since, and looks like
it's back to going up again. Is back
over the MA's as well. My main concern
is the volume. Needs more imo.
Hang in there with GOL. It's still
one of my faves.
Briboy
Sorry man have not been posting.
Yeah I kept trading this one and never
lost but got in others, and saw this
puppy go up and kicked myself.
Hope you are well.
Awesome for you ID. I clearly remember your history on that stock....being way down and averaging.
I don't have the income that would ever allow me to do that type of averaging or length of time...
Congrats...I hope it continues along your forecast....and will take a look at it in near future
I would like your opinion on gol chart though....I'm holding....watching, watching currency....I think the move up could be head fake...
Dollar is strengthening especially with Europe growth not rebounding well....do you have any thought if the real could strengthen even more than anticipated of agreements are made with Russia to take over the imports that Putin blocked from the usa?
PEIX is where you should have been!!
This climbs to $30.00 by end of Sept!!
Another 50% gain from here!!
And $50.00 by mid Nov!!
I will look later at GOL!
ID
Also cart boy Edmar got his "Christmas present" having 4th and 5th debenture restructured.
Having similar q over q revenue means nothing to the margin; the company could have been selling many more cheap seats hence the record load factor but lower margin.
That said, this was the first positive operate profit in q2 since 2010!
Also, the cash position remains unchanged regardless of operate loss AND the leverage ratio has dropped into the 4s, very impressive.
The street will treat this like q3 last year when they puke it out and then likely it rallies back some, then sideways for a while. I still maintain PT of $7-9 within 1 year. I will go all in if this should see $4s, which I doubt. Maybe tomorrow gap down and then rally back. The idiot analyst may downgrade too.
All in all, given the record revenue, excellent ratio improvement yoy, positive operate income and stable cash positon, downside will be limited
Also, LATAM continues to cut capacit and sees much better operations due to new infrastructure front World Cup.
This is good long term.
Cash $1,250,000,000 USD
Smiles equity $1,200,000,000 USD
Smiles dividend (q3) $275,000,000 USD
So much cash and incoming cash....
The shorts were at ~19m last year (~9%) and now is 3m (~3.4%)
I've got almost 70% portfolio in here. I will take the bad as good if the market says so tomorrow.
I will first add my all in position soon. If I continues to drop I will sell my clothes to add to my all in.
Here is to what the market says!!!!!! Saúde!
Vai fica bem sem importante inquérito mercado acho! Vo gana mais si a preco caiu
What didn't they do positive that they could have?
Hence my question how does one expect .07 loss?
Can you comment on Q release and conversation between captain (he stopped by to cry)...
I'd like you take......and I know it at minimum subconsciously carry a chartist view....
Thanks
I don't understand how rev can come in almost equal to Q1 yet margin drop? Especially with currency q1 vs Q2?
It would be nice if you stopped by a little more often; it wouldn't hurt you to share your opinion and allow me to learn something?
As a trade I'm a bit lost. Chart says tank. Today trading inconclusive, but I thought positive until I read how many feeds had GOL out there as a beat earnings potential company.
I share a bit of your sentiment; how will street react?
I think market shows bad/red I will watch currency closely and go all in very soon (of currency can hold?)
Why did you expect .07 loss?
I'm banging on my head a bit for completely overlooking Q2 2013 currency v Q2 2014 currency...
But that's it....I was intrigued by the last 12 month debt reduction from 11.3* to 4.6*. Never gave attention to it prior, but don't think I've ever looked over a filing of such as large company....transportation...
Anything else standout?
The GOL has shocked the capitan with a $100,000,000 USD revenue beat but even though a terrible loss of $.23/share vs $.07/share expect !
I must now ask about the competent of cmdr. Kakinoff and more important, cart boy Edmar !
This cannot continue every semester !
The good news it seems is the cash position remain gigante with $1,250,000,000 USD while $280,000,000 USD divident from the smiles capital redux will hit this q to pay down high interest debt.
The walue seems sound but I am afraid the Wall Street may kick the gol into the dirt for good now until a profit (if it ever) comes.
I try not to cry. I cannot help myself !
Thanks....was wondering I based on experience there were any limitations?
Read a chunk, will finish later (and reread what i read)....but interstIng info; and but every large holder I know already declared less than 5% (thus tradeable positions)....
I'm leaning towards new positions on board.
-----
Oh how it will hurt if I get it all wrong!!
I was contemplating selling 1/3 to 1/2 and re-evaluate on earning report/reaction.
So far I can't do it. I hold or buy more at 5.50...Amd if I'm still wrong I need 2-3days of hate ing myself..then plan all in timing...
My hope is that the ct order has something to do with the notes....and somebody like BofA and/or Buffet made aassive deal.
Is that a reason for ct order?
Here is definition
Could the CT order filing been becuase of the code share PR from today wou aero Mexico? And/ or becuase it's close to filing Q time (blackout period?)?
I will learn something new tomorrow either way. The only way this Q isn't off the chart is if I misunderstood the amortization of Venezuela currency deal or how and when fuel is calculated.
Do you have any familiarity as to what a CT order filing can encompass? Can it be anything? Or is typically for proprietary assets?
IN regards to other post; yes you called get out, but I think the chart and sentiment got a bit jacked up with the back to back aviation disasters.
Earnings is tomorrow After Market....
I have been adding larger chunks as pps goes down; I think the Q2 will be stellar
FYI: short interest is a 1/3 of what it was a year ago.
Based on what I "think" I know the PPS should make a massive positive move over coming days, but I will agree if the Q is bad....she'll be going much lower than $5.
Only way this goes up is if she goes lower and then a good Q2 for GOL!!
So one of 2 things hold and avg down if you think AUG 15 and Q2 will be good
or sell and buy when a POP comes around!!
I can not see this go lower than $5.25 before earnings!!
But if Q2 is bad this sinks to under $5.00!!
ID
And on July 24 I stated resistance at $6.72!!
GLTA
ID
I told you to get out July 31 and then again Aug 6!!
ID
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FinViz PageGOL is one of the largest low-cost low-fare airlines in the world in terms of passengers transported in 2008, and the only low-cost low-fare airline providing frequent service on routes connecting all of Brazil’s major cities and from Brazil to major cities in South America and Caribbean. With young and standardized operating fleet of 108 Boeing 737 aircraft, the company serves the largest number of destinations of any airline in the Brazilian air passenger transportation market. Since the beginning of GOL´s operations in 2001, our affordable, reliable and simple service and our focus on markets that were either underserved or did not have a lower-fare alternative have led to a strong awareness of the company´s brand and a rapid increase in our market share. GOL is the first company to successfully introduce low-cost carrier industry practices and technologies in Latin America. We have a diversified revenue base, with customers ranging from business passengers to leisure passengers traveling throughout Brazil and other South American destinations. The company controls important and recognized brands in the Brazilian aviation industry: GOL, VARIG, GOLLOG, SMILES and VOE FÁCIL. Recognized for making air travel affordable in Brazil, the GOL brand is synonymous with innovation and modernity, thanks to several actions initiated to provide service that is simple, safe and efficient. GOL flies to 50 domestic and seven international destinations: Asuncion (Paraguay), Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Rosario (Argentina), Montevideo (Uruguay), Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolivia) and Santiago (Chile – via Buenos Aires). VARIG is the GOL Group brand that operates the company's midrange international routes, to Aruba (Caribbean), Bogota (Colombia), Caracas (Venezuela) and Punta Cana (Dominican Republic). In the Comfort Class, VARIG provides a series of benefits to the client, such as more room between seats, more privacy on board, 150% bonus in SMILES miles accrual, onboard service with more options of hot entrées and individual onboard entertainment. The SMILES program has issued over one million cards abroad and is the largest mileage plan in Latin America, with over 6.7 million participants. The miles are accrued every time a client flies with GOL, VARIG or partner airlines, or when hiring services or purchasing products from about 160 non-airline program partners, in Brazil and abroad. GOLLOG is the company's cargo transportation service that also incorporates ease and innovation. Its modern system also allows our clients to have online access to the cargo delivery and tracking documentation form any internet connected computer, by means of the AWB (Airway Bill). The Voe Fácil card, another of the company's innovations, was launched to stimulate demand and allows GOL clients to acquire tickets over the internet, without a credit card and with the choice of paying in up to 36 installments. |
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