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Just checking in. I had been trading GNSS and got stuck with some expensive shares so I put it into AIM and averaged down some. I wish now I'd bought more at higher prices, because I'm still rather under water on the stock, but on the shares AIM had me buy I've done well. Given my sell yesterday at 13.59, I've got a much lower loss than I would have if I'd just have held my expensive shares. I raised my SELL SAFE from 0% to 5% after yesterday's sell, so I don't get another one till 16.83 unless I lower the SELL SAFE again.
Nice recovery for GNSS, in any case.
Linda
Hi George, I shipped off 9% of my position to a new owner today at $14.51. Nice to have the cash back. We bought those shares in August at $10.50, so that's a nice "annualized" return and a real LIFO gain of 38%.
Best regards, Tom
Tom, I bailed in the final minutes Friday.
Took a profit, but would've liked to exit at $14.
Patience ran thin.
There's always another day...
Hi George, $13.54 this AM, up strongly with Tech off a bit. Maybe we'll break out of this rut now. There's been some nice design wins recently, but nothing specific yesterday or today.
This account's now back to about break-even for the year to date. We restarted the account at $15.95, so at almost three bucks under that, our downward averaging has done some good.
Best regards, Tom
Hi George, Yes. A lousy week overall with the NASDAQ Comp. down about 5%.
My account's stuck between a buy and a sell right now.
Best regards, Tom
Yesterday, Fri, trashing of the stock, down 10%, seems especially severe, even given that it was a down week
for the NAZ. Genesis keeps coming out with design win
news. Stock performance: pretty dismal.
Should've bailed at 13...
GNSS cannot get any traction, even on a hot day for the NASDAQ, which is disquieting...
Tom,
I like your charts.
Can you give a synopsis why earnings faltered
after the big runup through year-end 2001?
Was is a product transition?
(I'll have to go back and read some reports)
-George
Hi George, In my "first life" with GNSS, we did very well selling shares into the enormous rally.
and then waited it out on the side lines until the apparent P/E fell to rational levels. However, after it fell under $18/share, the earnings evaporated almost as quickly as had the share price. So, on the sidelines I sat.
Then, at the beginning of this year, I robbed all the cash reserve from the account to shore up other investments. I then restarted the account with the shares that were left plus a healthy cash reserve.
So far there's been nice activity both on the Buy and Sell sides (although buys now outnumber sells). This is an incremental buying and selling method called AIM. In the long run GNSS should have good business and if they can keep from spending money on lawyers and stick to business, we investors should be happy.
Best regards, Tom
Tom, Today was a pleasure (close $11.94 +0.94).
Wish I had doubled up under $9.
-George
Hi George, Added 22% to my GNSS position yesterday at $10.50. This lowered my Next Sell to about $14.50. At that point we'll unload about 10% of our inventory. This could work well for a trade range for now.
Best regards, Tom
Good news: LG Electronics Selects Genesis Microchip for New Line of LCD Projectors
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 13, 2003-- Genesis Microchip Inc. (Nasdaq:GNSS - News), a leading provider of display image processors for consumer and PC-display products, today announced that LG Electronics, a leading global consumer electronics corporation, has designed Genesis Microchip's FLI2310 digital video processor into its new RL-JA20 LCD home theater projector. The projector is now available worldwide for approximately $3,000.00 USD and carries the DCDi® by Faroudja logo on its faceplate for easy consumer recognition.
...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030813/135150_1.html
The beating continued on Friday.
(NAZ being down a number a days in a row does not help).
Hi George, Well, the market seems to like to over-do anything it is doing at the time. In this case, they are probably over selling GNSS with all the negative news that's been going around.
The price/share is well below my Next Buy price
but it may take a while for the selling to conclude. So, I'll be adding to my position slowly over time.
- Silicon Image seems to have won this round. It's going to cost GNSS in profits based upon royalty payments, etc. This could have an effect on their competitive position.
- Donegan did a good job at the helm. I don't know much about the litigation itself.
- CEO is the current CFO as well. Stable hands for the transition.
- the current price/share is now below where it was at the end of March when the GNSS-PXLW merger was first discussed. Part of GNSS's product line has matured to that point where it is seeing the decline in price and profit margin. Another part is rapidly growing at the same time and carries very good margins. It is the company's job to continue to innovate at a rate that keeps part of the product line in the sweet spot for earnings. That's a tall order in a business that's already cyclical in nature. They've done well in the past and may continue to lead this area of the Chip world.
Best regards, Tom
What a disaster for the stock.
I should've watched it for a week or so after the earlier tumble.
Didn't know enough about it, shame on me.
No dry powder to average down.
This morning was probably a good time to buy.
Do you have any opinions about:
-Court judgement against Genesis, in favor of Silicon Image?
-Resignation of former CEO Donegan on July 20?
-New interim CEO Erdman?
-The future GNSS price in this environment of ever-falling product pricing and competition?
It seems the stock was around $13 before the now-cancelled merger, right?
George
Hi George, Looks like I have to change the name of this Thread! The merger deal is "off."
http://www.nasdaq.com//asp/quotes_news.asp?logopath=http%3a%2f%2fcontent.nasdaq.com%2flogos%2fGNSS.G...
Best regards, Tom
I don't do charting/TA,
but it took a pounding today
multiple times to the $10.40 level,
and seems to have held up well.
George
Hi George, I'll be adding about 20% more to my position if the price continues down below $10.50. This holding is currently half in cash, so buying isn't a problem if the right discount arrives.
Glad to have company with GNSS. Keep me posted on your progress.
There was huge volume in the pre-market and then continued heavy trading in the regular market. Even so, the price didn't drop much beyond the initial $3 whacking it got.
Best regards, Tom
Couldn't resist, nibbled on some at $11.01 this morning.
(This thing traded flat-lined all day...)
Good for a bounce in the short-term?
George
Hi Paul, I added 12% to my position at $10.89 this AM. The cash was waiting for a reason to be put back to work.
Their management change over the law suit for patent infringement shook up some investors a week or so ago. I things will settle down now.
Best regards, Tom
The discount was enough to attract me back in, after a many month absence. Balance sheet looks outstanding to me, and if I read the numbers correctly, the P/E/G is an outstanding value (.55). No debt and selling below book. Fundamentally, about the only weak spot I note is GNSS' rather anemic cash flow.
GNSS is getting hammered this AM down over three bucks in the first half hour.
This is in response to what should read as rather good news.
http://www.nasdaq.com//asp/quotes_news.asp?logopath=http%3a%2f%2fcontent.nasdaq.com%2flogos%2fGNSS.G...
All I can think is that these numbers aren't as good as was desired by the market place. The shift from reliance on flat pannel displays to more video and mixed applications looks to be a solid move for the company.
No further comment on upper management change at this point.
Best regards, Tom
Short Sales on GNSS have been pretty steady through mid April.
DATE SHARES SHORT AVE DAILY VOL RATIO
04/03 5,751,405 1,671,636 3.44
03/03 6,347,504 1,851,397 3.43
02/03 5,963,578 2,605,160 2.29
01/03 6,282,934 2,460,395 2.55
12/02 6,144,478 3,050,518 2.01
11/02 5,787,067 3,371,229 1.72
Hey Chief, My biotechs are moving nicely now, too. I've been using IBB (Nasdaq Biotech Index Fund) as proxy to catch everything I miss individually. It's tucked in my IRA.
Thanks,
Tom
I am out right now...havin a hoot with the "SARS" stocks like AVII GNVC and APT....shifting to the "cure"...ONCY running like a real fast woofer
Hey Chief, I put out a small fire yesterday when GNSS flaired up to $17.52. Sold off 13% of my holding for a nice LIFO gain.
Account's profitable even carrying along a big Cash Anchor. There may yet be a time when it gets dropped to hold our position in a storm.
Glad I could mix up some metaphors here today!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Chief, It would appear that since the initial drop in price, PXLW and GNSS are dancing to the same tune.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?cs=PXLW&cs=GNSS&cs=&cs=&cs=&a...
Looks like some fun.
Best regards, Tom
IN PXLW this am at 5.68 average...for a lot, but they are longterm and not traders until $7.00...if it gets there???
Not all moves were good, I got some 13.10's when the DOW looked like it was going to blow thru 8332 (bottom of the second big down candle yesterday)...it fizzled...and died and now I have some 13.10's that are gonna get tossed at 12.94...if it hits it...
Unless we get some good news than the failure to break 8228-32 today is not bulley bulley for tomorrow.
Hi Chief, Nice moves, sir. GNSS still hanging over $13 at this time.
I'm pretty slow motion by comparison.
Best regards, Tom
all out .76-78 buys at 13.10
out 12.68-71 at 13.02 and .089
I am in GNSS from 12.68 thru to 12.78...if DOW breaks 8244 on the next run we have upside..without it we are in a trading range that has a top of 12.90...but you never know
I will post a link to your thread on mine, we trade GNSS so much that we might as well collaberate(sp) If you find anything that will either impact "up or down" GNSS or PXLW please post a link on our thread, we will do the same.
Thanks
Hi Chief, Thanks for stopping by and bringing your thoughts to the thread. Ihub's stock threads have been a bit light on posting where the "general" threads seem to be occupying most poster's time.
As time goes on, if you have time to bring news events and your trading to this thread it would be appreciated. We'll try to keep current events posted along with whatever other info we can find.
Best regards, Tom
I will pop in from time to time, I daytrade for a living and by far, and I mean by far my absolute favorite stock is GNSS. I grabbed it at 7.10 and gave a "heads up" on my thread, a number of people played it and made money, I still am playing it.
I must admit though, since the announced merger with PXLW the stock has broken out of its traditional swing area and playing it has become somewhat harder because you have to keep one eye on PXLW.
I made one mistake with PXLW and that was loading up on it when the deal was announced. I took a small hit on the sale of those shares, but have since made up for that by trading GNSS again. My buy point is 12.43-54 until, things change that is where I will buy. Sell point is anything that starts with a $13
If I get a chance when I post my buy on my thread, I will also post here...same with the sells. I am no guru so don't assume that because I am buyinng or selling it would be a good idea for you.....everyone does their own thing and takes responsibility for their own actions.
I would appreciate a reciprocation, if any of you decide to buy, please post the buy on my thread, the only condition is that you do so as close to "realtime" as possible. Please read the rules of my thread, you'll see we are no nonsense and adult!
I established the "realtime" threads after watching 10 year olds posting at 3:55 that they bought 10,000,000 shares of MSFT at XX.XX and sold them for XX.XX+$2.00 therefore making them multi-millionaiers.
Strangely enough, when they were told they could only post realtime buys and sells, the millionaires disappeared quicker than a cold beer on a hot day.
Hi Don, Thanks for the info on your usual M.O. As you saw, I buy and sell incrementally. A bit different in strategy, but if the bottom line is filled in with black ink, that's what matters.
Best regards, Tom
Thank you very much for your reply.
Last time I bght at 7.64 and sold out way too early. Profit often.
I really like the CEO of PXLW-straight shooter.
Needless to say I did nothing today but I will be watching this closely.
Don
Hi Don, As noted, I just added a bit more to my holding here in GNSS. I've been an owner of the stock for a long time but the quantity of shares has changed over time. This graphic should show you what I mean.
At the end of the "boom" period, I just quite trading it for a while. I had been waiting for some type of pattern to develop. Around the beginning of this year I restarted the account after removing most of the accumulated Cash. So far I've had one sell and two buys since the re-start.
I'll continue to accumulate shares if the price declines further. Meanwhile I'm trying to learn as much about the two companies and their strengths/weaknesses as possible.
Best regards, Tom
Tom
I have followed PXLW and to lesser degree GNSS since the glory days. Many buys and sells.
At this point I am looking to buy GNSS, assuming it is the play
for a fairly long term hold.
Any entry point suggestions would be appreciated.
Thanks
Hi Quill, Thank you for the comments and bit of history and prognostication. The fellow on SI who was asking about "Gorilla and King" status felt their IP was good enough to keep them ahead of competitors. That has been a concern in the Press over the last two years and had bruised the stock more than once. Maybe it was collaboration of Shorts and Press. We've seen that before.
With my small addition in the low $12s my next Sell is designated for the mid $17s. So, it sounds like your range is nearly the same as mine, but maybe one or two trades behind. I'd bought in late Jan or early Feb just after selling some at about $18+. I'm currently on a monthly diet for purchasing, so won't put in another GTC until early April.
Best regards, Tom
Tom,
I have currently, some strange numbers for buying at 14.09 and selling at 19.06 according to the new default on the AI 2.2.
We will all have to be buying HDTV's by the year 2006 wheather you like it or not, or use a convertbox of half the quality picture performance in scanning lines per inch horizontally for your old TV. So save your monies to buy the new hdtv's hopefully at a lower price by 2006. It's all these new FCC regulations.
We are working on new designs in parallel with them (gnss), since we have over 30 years of Graphic Displays experience. GNSS are babies in this field of Semiconductors. I was looking at the Management level and I recognize some of the guys who bounced from one company to another or were layed off which makes their bio's look sweet. Probably their total man years experience combined is less than my total years as a Principal IC Layout Designer. Rookies! Not enough Salt in their Sox.
They do have good Design projects from an Engineering point of view and as you can see the LCD flat screens are replacing all the power consuming crt monitors. It's part of the 5 year cycle of replacing technologies with the latest and greatest.
My home Sony 18 inch LCD monitor uses GNSS technology. Next week, our design group will be getting all new Dell PC's with a 21 inch LCD flat screen with the GNSS technology. As always, Engineering is the last to get the good stuff. Even my new Sun Microsystem's Blade 2000 system has a 24 inch LCD flat screen.
Goin to AZ in two weeks for a Design review meeting with our newly acquired divison that does work similar to GNSS but for the cell phones that will have better graphic displays in the future models and camera chips so you can take pics with the darn phone. Strange business of semiconductors after all. I'll be sticking with GNSS since I understand their business for a while until there are management changes. So let's hang in there until 2008. By then, the demand for the products will be very strong world wide.
Best regards,
QuillandPenn
GNSS dropped enough in price to actually trigger another purchase for me. I picked up an additional 14% more shares at $12.38 yesterday. This comes as the first trade since the announced merger of Pixelworks and Genesis.
I've decided to stick with my usual trading plan with this stock and see how things play out with the merger.
Best regards,
Tom
Let's get things started.
I started my investment in GNSS in October of 1999 with sort of a "gorilla-king" thought. It has been part of my portfolio ever since. I'd been to a trade show and seen a few flat screen monitors being used as public displays in the booths. Then in Feb. of 2000 at yet another trade show I'd seen a significant increase in their usage - nearly 50%.
I started my investment at $19.44 for 1000 shares. My holding increased gradually to 3300 shares by March of 2001 when the price dropped to $9.375. The position decreased through a series of partial sales to just 700 shares with the last sale being at $66.21 in early December of '01. After that I didn't do anything but hang on to the remaining shares as I'd taken my original investment out of GNSS several times over by then. So, even though I had hopes of G&K performance over time, I "planted and harvested" all along the way.
I reactivated the account in January of this year by selling off an additional 100 shares at $18.34 and then replaced those shares at $12.85 in early February. My intent was to stay with GNSS and trade a range in the mid teens with a portion of my holding.
PXLW
This merger thing caught me off guard. I looked over Value Line and found that Genesis is listed in their "Small/Mid Cap" portion while Pixelworks is in their regular edition. PXLW didn't exactly have the best timing for its IPO in that it came out right after the market peak in 2000 (May) at $10/share. It was bid up as high as $51+ that first year but has been trading with lower highs ever since. Insiders own a significant portion of the outstanding shares (22+%). BETA is a healthy 1.75. Stock Price Stability is "5" out of a potential "100" making it "unstable." Corporate Capitalization is 100% from Equity sales with no long term debt. For my usual M.O. all this is good news so far.
With revenues and book value growth (next 3-5 years) estimated to be 23% and 13% respectively, it would appear that things should be quite rosy. However, it has a relatively short track record and that has been during rather trying times. So, it's hard to guess whether Value Line is making a stab in the dark or has a good feel for this. They comment that PXLW is loading up their plate with devices for the "advanced television" segment. This is expected to be a very fast growing area overall and their business should prosper from that growth. It's also a lot of eggs in one basket.
Institutional ownership has shown nearly equal buying and selling during the first three quarters of 2002. In the third quarter, there were more individual buyers than sellers, but total institutional ownership dropped slightly.
Bottom line is they were expecting the individual company to possibly trade between $11 and $19 in the next three to five years.
GNSS
With Genesis, we see several things in common with PXLW. GNSS has a lofty BETA of 1.85. Stock Price Stability is also 5 out of a possible 100. Both these lead to anticipating pretty good trading ranges for both stocks individually, and if combined, collectively. GNSS is a bit older, going public in 1998. It's had fast sales and book value growth while earnings have been rather erratic. There's a very small amount of long term debt but it's essentially 100% capitalized by common stock. There was a lot of institutional buying going on in the first three quarters of 2002, however it was off set by heavy selling in the second and third quarters. As a result, institutional ownership is down a bit from the first qtr. of 2002.
Unfortunately, in Value Line's expanded edition they don't give any 3-5 year projections for us to ponder. My own trade range will be from around $12 to about $18 under current circumstances. After the new company forms, it will be something different. I couldn't find insider ownership numbers either in Value Line. So, a direct comparison is beyond my capabilities.
My concern in the past has been stated in several articles about GNSS and PXLW. Both companies seem to make pretty nice product and have nice leads in their respective fields. However, what would happen if one of the larger semiconductor companies would decide to want this market for themselves? Is there enough "I.P." here to keep these guys cooking or would they have to go off in some new direction to stay in business? Unfortunately there's not enough meat in a Value Line report to be able to discern this sort of thing.
So, is the "new" company going to be a powerhouse in the field of Visual Display device drivers? Well, they already are relative to the newer display devices. With CRTs fading into history along with their high energy consumption, space use and extra HVAC needs, it appears that flat panel, projection and other newer designs will be the rage. HDTV, still in its infancy is coming over the horizon quite quickly. Will Phillips, Zenith, Sony, etc. not want their own piece of this business?
G&K Infant Status? Maybe. For me, for now, I'm willing to see how it plays out. I have shares that are well paid for and think yet a new trade range will develop. Please remember that even though I trade around a core holding, I only sell out of a position completely when I feel something fundamental has changed to make it no longer attractive on a 3-5 year basis. I know the G&K folks are pretty much buy&hold in their attitudes, so this is where I differ. I put a risk cap on my investments and rarely let the total at risk increase. The only time I do is when the prices are cheap and then I let the risk envelope expand.
Best regards, Tom
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DATE ACTION PERCENT OF PRICE HOLDING 10/6/1999 STARTED 100% @$19.4375 11/01/1999 Bought 10% @ 16.125 12/07/1999 Sold 9% @ 22.75 12/08/1999 Sold 10% @ 25.4063 01/04/2000 Bought 11% @ 16.625 01/05/2000 Bought 20% @ 16.50 01/07/2000 Bought 8% @ 16.00 01/07/2000 Bought 8% @ 15.1875 01/19/2000 Sold 7% @ 20.625 02/16/2000 Sold 8% @ 22.125 02/23/2000 Sold 8% @ 24.375 04/13/2000 Bought 9% @ 18.50 04/24/2000 Bought 8% @ 17 05/23/2000 Bought 15% @ 15.625 10/13/2000 Bought 7% @ 15.5 10/20/2000 Bought 6% @ 15.125 10/27/2000 Bought 6% @ 14.0625 10/31/2000 Bought 7% @ 13.875 11/30/2000 Bought 50% @ 9.125 01/19/2001 Sold 3% @ 13.875 01/22/2001 Sold 3% @ 14.5 01/23/2001 Sold 4% @ 15.0625 01/29/2001 Sold 7% @ 16.8125 02/07/2001 Sold 4% @ 17.25 02/08/2001 Sold 4% @ 18.25 02/15/2001 Sold 4% @ 18.5625 03/16/2001 Bought 5% @ 13.25 03/29/2001 Bought 4% @ 9.4375 03/29/2001 Bought 4% @ 9.3438 03/29/2001 Bought 32% @ 9.375 04/18/2001 Sold 3% @ 14.00 05/04/2001 Sold 3% @ 14.60 05/07/2001 Sold 3% @ 15.15 05/08/2001 Sold 10% @ 18.01 05/08/2001 Sold 4% @ 18.05 05/09/2001 Sold 12% @ 20.80 05/21/2001 Sold 22% @ 27.25 06/01/2001 Sold 6% @ 29.18 06/15/2001 Sold 6% @ 31.43 06/22/2001 Sold 6% @ 34.10 06/28/2001 Sold 7% @ 37.25 10/12/2001 Sold 7% @ 35.50 10/16/2001 Sold 8% @ 36.40 10/19/2001 Sold 8% @ 39.70 10/26/2001 Sold 9% @ 48.00 11/27/2001 Sold 10% @ 52.50 11/29/2001 Sold 11% @ 57.04 12/13/2001 Sold 13% @ 66.21 01/05/2003 Added $2860.59 to cash reserve. 01/05/2003 Changed Portfolio Control and restarted account at 70/30 Equity/Cash. 01/14/2003 Sold 14% @ 18.34 02/07/2003 Bought 17% @ 12.85 03/21/2003 Bought 14% @ 12.38 04/29/2003 Sold 13% @ 17.52 07/21/2003 Bought 14% @ 13.04 07/30/2003 Bought 12% @ 10.89 08/27/2003 Bought 24% @ 10.50 10/07/2003 Sold 9% @ 14.51 10/16/2003 Sold 10% @ 16.18 11/03/2003 Sold 9% @ 17.82 11/04/2003 Sold 10% @ 19.60 01/20/2004 Sold 9% @ 21.60 03/09/2004 Bought 15% @ 16.00 05/06/2004 Bought 13% @ 14.90 06/18/2004 Bought 11% @ 13.96 08/10/2004 Bought 31% @ 11.5 11/05/2004 Sold 8% @ 15.77 11/15/2004 Sold 9% @ 17.35. 01/19/2005 Bought 9% @ 12.92 06/02/2005 Sold 9% @ 17.96. 07/11/2005 Sold 9% @ 19.67. 07/22/2005 Sold 11% @ 22.43. 07/22/2005 Sold 13% @ 24.93. 10/27/2005 Bought 13% @ 18.57 12/01/2005 Sold 11% @ 22.69. 12/15/2005 Bought 13% @ 18.12 01/24/2006 Bought 11% @ 17.54 04/03/2006 Bought 13% @ 16.5 05/01/2006 Bought 9% @ 15.6 07/13/2006 Bought 58% @ 10.72Good Investing, Tom
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