GEOPOLITICAL RISK GOLD CRUDE OIL

[gotmilk]

...ever read Jay Chen on SI? Yes, a great read,
as if E.C. had an off day and risen on the right side
of the bed in that one in a thousand trips to the bathroom
he does and doesn't hit his head over and over on that
low hanging ceiling :o) for his over six foot height.
But seriously, please ask Jay Chen of SI if he would
like to accept that contest award for me to allow a person
to obtain a one year free full iHub membership. Seems that
my offer to E.C. and Richard Mazz were not accepted by them.
I'am sure Bob & Matt would see a plus for iHub to obtain two
full members of high quality for one year if they would not
consider joining. Actually some great posters are here
on iHub as FREE because they *refuse* to pay and feel
all boards should be free. Myself it the advs that i pay to
have not appear on my screens. So ask Jay Chen if he
would like a one year full iHub, and since he is a very high
quality poster he does not *have* to agree to post here on
a regular timefame, but just sample iHub in the next 12 months.
Let me know your thoughts about my 2 contest awards to allow
two folks to get each a one year free full iHub membership
in that you can recommend/ask two people you know that
would not be here otherwise. Just remember my warning,
don't ask anyone using Silicon Investor, else TOU violation.
You may first nudge EC to accept my offer first if you want to.
If you wish to help me allocate these two contest awards
let me know, and if yes then i will direct Bob/Matt to this post
so they can act on it. Will expire in a few days.
(also)
The reason i would like Jay Chen here is that he could read
both mine and your reply on this board, posts #2 #3
as it an amazing example of how two people can see
the same thing and get totally different conclusions.
As, your case to flip my views on Russia and China
to me prove my case, which is the opposite of your views.
Those reasons you detailed about Russia & China history,
past and present, are the exact reasons that caused me
to arrive at my conclusions. Would be nice for Jay Chen
and EC to comment since if i'am correct Russia would be
the best place for investments, or if you are more on target,
a place to avoid.

___________________________________________________
Si's Doug AK
gotmilk & skunk cabbage, no Zurnip or Krispy Kreme

[marcos]

Sounds like an interesting guy - #msg-533944 .. #board-1375 ... some impressive p/e ratios he mentions there, that's what happens when political outlooks are scarey, investors demand a higher return on their capital, actually a faster return OF their capital first and foremost ... then in the happy cases where situations appear to improve, you can do very well, especially if you've picked a company that performs on their own account .... there is lots to learn first though, for those who don't know the place intimately

You think Russia will pass the US in ten years? ... i don't ... if it ever happens it will take a lot longer than that imho .. tragedy there is they didn't go from stalinist 'communism' to true free enterprise, largely the heads of the same old gang who ruled the USSR ended up with the heritage of the people, for little or nothing ... that's not capitalism, you can't start a free society by basing it on robbery imho .... of course much of western wealth originates from initial robber baron activity, no place is completely without this sort of corruption in its foundations, but the russian path has been especially brutal, and endangers the perception of the benefits of free enterprise among its people, most likely .... you have to remember, they went from being subjects of the tsars to being subjects of the commissars, now subjects of the mafiosos - this is a long ways from the relatively liberal societies that produced the Smiths and Bagehots and Friedmans .... no, i think they'll be a lot longer than that ... true enough, there are signs of rule of law, and respect for law, showing up more and more, but it takes time ...

China's case may be being handled better - no abrupt renaming of the same old system as 'capitalism', but a measured increase in personal liberty with its rights and duties for the citizen ... aggravating for the advanced folks within it, for sure, but this path may make more sense, you don't want a nation of over one billion to descend into fascist nationalism or something .... people must be educated into liberal democracy, and it's a slow tide, that understanding coming in .... did you ever read Jay Chen on SI? ... very bright guy, willing to type in all sorts of thought, most of which i've found interesting ... here is his personal thread - http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=53084

[gotmilk]

Its still my opinion that in five to ten years Russia will equal
the United States in both military & economy as a superpower,
and China will have done an U.S.S.R. type collapse.

I'am clueless on the resources like minerals and oil China has,
but it seems Russia has huge untapped quantities of these
and only needs the o.k. from the central government to allow
outside help to enter and develope and place into full production
what might end up being the biggest world producer in many
of the needed base and precious metals, and oil, such that
Russia controls supply enough to determine the world's prices.

The question of risk for investors outside and inside Russia
is to me already answered in that like all successful businesses
good planning and control is needed to satisfy investors and the
market customers, and yes Russia now has in place what it takes
to deliver on this. China has just the opposite and will collapse.

A SENSE OF ASIA
A tale of two banking systems
http://216.26.163.62/2002/s10_07.html
By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
October 9, 2002
It reminds one of that old favorite animated cartoon device:
the dog chases the cat over the cliff but neither falls until
one looks down and sees that there is nothing under them...
The banking systems in both Japan and China have reached
that stage. In Japan, the banks nonperforming debt is seen...
___________________________________________________
Si's Doug AK
gotmilk & skunk cabbage, no Zurnip or Krispy Kreme

[marcos]

Example - Diamondworks, dmw.to ... they've got seriously economic diamond mines with blue sky all over them, but guess where they are - Angola, and Sierra Leone, lol ... in both places there seems to be a peace-like situation breaking out, now watch, next thing that shows up will be fastidious regulators, greedy politicians, 'touch not a scoop of yon brown mud' environmentalists ... all of these are but various forms of the omnipresent 'political risk' ... guess where dmw was before their african experience - Venezuela, lol ... but at least they had the good sense to stay clear of British Columbia during the NDP regime