Friends of Essex

[dontbothermec]

Poor ole Sidleno is getting his teeth knocked out on VPHM.

[dontbothermec]

Is Nepenthe still in business as a retaurant? Yes, I was thinking about it yesterday, and how nice a drive along the coast would be.

"Have you ever needed to drive with one eye shut just to get home from a hard night?" Often, I worked my share of night shifts as a nurse. But really it was one eye open, at least that was the goal. Not that it mattered if my eyes were open during the winter, the fog was so thick I couldn't see 5' anyway.

[stricklybiz]

You're quite correct, Anne (and you're probably cute, too, according to this wine I'm drinking). Q is already down far enough that I could buy it back even after my MetalStorm plunge.

What a day! Things were wildly up and down (indexes, I mean).

The people on the Q board have said such complimentary things that I can't leave. I've met some of them personally when I drove out to California some years ago. Sorry we didn't know each other then. I went to La Jolla to see John, then up to San Jose for Jennifer. I could easily have taken a side trip to the Ocean Sea to sample mushrooms and then down to Nepenthe for hamburgers and wine. Is Nepenthe still in business as a retaurant?

What gold? I don't need no steenkin' gold. CDs or a no-load high-heeled bond fund; either one is more my style.

See you tomorrow. If I were to see you right now I wouldn't know which one to greet. Have you ever needed to drive with one eye shut just to get home from a hard night? With both eyes open, the highway centerline splits.

[dontbothermec]

Dick, you might want to keep some of that QCOM dough around to put back on QCOM. It should bottom soon and then go up 'til about March '08.

BUT, the place to be for the next few months, I think, is gold....especially the gold stocks that are not hedged.

[stricklybiz]

Ted, I neglected to mention the other day (yesterday?) that I used some of my revenue from Q to beef up my MTSX holding. I think I'm okay on both sides of that laundry list.

More extremely bad news for Q today and a little ray of sunshine for MetalStorm. Q has been down more than 2 bucks today and is now minus about 1.70, I think.

[tedmoe48]

Thanks Dick, I put a small position on Friday (300), so I have some skin in the game. It's a very small contract, Lets hope this is the first drop in the bucket with a torrent yet to come.

[stricklybiz]

Ted, The bid/ask just jumped up to 2.05/2.40. That's +17% on the ask (above Friday's 2.05 close).

[stricklybiz]

Ted, FYI. Gotta start some place. At least it's USD, not Oz.

Metal Storm Announces Contract Awarded
Monday August 6, 2:22 am ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070806/0286589.html

[stricklybiz]

Copied a from a post I submitted a couple of minutes ago to the IH QCOM board.
***********
I can't leave without expressing my appreciation for what I've gained by being here and my admiration for so many who post to this site. If I list 10 names, it will be at the expense of omitting 10 others.

On Thursday afternoon I entered a stop-loss order at a dollar below the share price at that moment. Yesterday I modified the order to $41 versus Thursday's $42.04 close. I was truly stunned at the rapidity of yesterday share-proce drop at around 3:30 Eastern. When the price went below 41 I knew I was a goner. The change was so drastic that I saw the price go to something like 40.92 and then bounce, all so quickly that my order wasn't executed until the upswing at 41.05.

This site has been a welcome refuge where valid information and moral support were available in equal measure. I do appreciate the restraint of Rich (where is he?) and DRox not kicking me off for wisecracks and irrelevance, unlike Wellington Koo or whoever he is on SI.

Six and a half years of waiting for the Big Bang ought to demonstrate anyone's determination and sincerity, but I am now too old to hold anything on the come. Adios! I'm off for a possibly short stay in (probably) a no-load junk-bond fund.

[stricklybiz]

I don't know about the Dows generally; just my 5 most expensive Dogs (the Big Dogs) and my 5 cheaper ones (the Puppies). I expect they were all down. However, I find I was hurt (overall) just a few hundred bucks this week.

I don't know nuthin' 'bout no margarine calls; I think I'll hold a big heap of cash for some time and just let those gold coins trickle off my fingers. At least until Big Ben (that's little Greengroin) gives us a clue how much he's goiing to let us keep.

[dontbothermec]

I've nearly hit the sell button on GE a couple times lately.

The Dows are up for the week? 'Cause they're all down today!

Wait 'til the Monday margin calls, 12:30 your time, should be exciting. The question is, is that a time to buy, or is there less to come?

[stricklybiz]

Somebody done stoled my identity! Check the Wal-Mart credit desk; we'll catch 'em.

Pretty strange, Anne. I really had no intention but I did begin to be annoyed at the lack of progress to go along with all the bloviation. I think the neptism in appointing a new CEO was my catalyst. I've recently put a stop about $1 below the previous session's close. Today it was just bonking along and suddenly went off the cliff. It bounced a bit, but mine was gone to my relief. Now it's down 1.27 below yesterday's close.

Interesting fact. With all the Dow drop my Dogs are +1.96%. I also carry split portfolios. The 5 Big Dogs + KFT are -2.93%; the 5 Puppies are +5.8%. Makes sense; the Doggier the better.

[dontbothermec]

I'm in shock, someone hand me a cool towel, I NEVER thought you'd sell QCOM!

I think I need a cold soda, maybe an aspirin.

[stricklybiz]

I guess it'llbe a relaxed weekend. I had a $41 stop on QCOM. A few minutes ago it started dropping rapidly from above 41.65 and in seconds was below 41. Got down to 39.92. Mine did't sell until the immediate bounce and I got 41.05. At least that paid the commission (even at a legit broker).

[dontbothermec]

"Did you see the beating JDSA took today" Who? JDSU went down, but not so much I'd call it a beating.

oh, i see, jsda

[tedmoe48]

Oh, whatever, I have a thick hide. Long memeory, and short attention span. Looks like a bloody close.

Have a good weekend.

[stricklybiz]

I wasdn't talking about you, just their mood.

[tedmoe48]

Thnaks, I am not impatient, I was stopped out. I use stop losses to protect capital. Well, maybe I am impatient, as there are thousands of other stocks moving each day.

Did you see the beating JDSA took today? Guess being pulled off the selves at SBUX hurt real bad. I may play the bounce.

[stricklybiz]

Ted, here's the web site. The Yahoo boards on MST and MTSX are stupid. This lets you look but not touch, I think.

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=486&hl=mst

Here's the company home page:

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=486&hl=mst

[stricklybiz]

Everyone is standing fast waiting for the contract actions to be consummated. Some are impatient but then they get over it.

[tedmoe48]

Hey Dick,

What are your Aussie chums saying on MTSX? I was stopped out of my position. I would like to get in, but not till the train is heading in the right direction.

[dontbothermec]

You forgot DUSA, it broke support yesterday.

you can thank your lucky stars that you didn't hold AHM yesterday.....it plummeted 90% and will probably not be recovering.

[tedmoe48]

like the teeth of a saw blade, that is what the market looks like today.
PARL broke support
MWY broke support
IOTN weaker than goose shit
MTSX broke support
I have some dry powder, but refuse to buy stocks heading in the wrong direction.

I think I'll take a nap

[tedmoe48]

Many carrier landings, hundreds and hundreds but always from a hover. Flew SH-60's (Sikorsky multi purpose helos), then flew multiengine Beechcraft Kingairs on my twilight tour. Did take a few carrier launches strapped into the cargo bay of a C-2. What you and I would remember as an E ticket ride.

[stricklybiz]

Ted, For some reason I had you flying multiengine. Having read your post I must conclude that you've made carrier landings. Correct?

[dontbothermec]

I've seen the Travel Channel show on the G.C.. The thing that impressed me is how rustic all the accooadations and amenities are. If the trip down to the bottom was nicer, I'd be interested in going. As it is now, I'll skip the mule ride, but a helicopter ride might be fun.

[tedmoe48]

http://www.destinationgrandcanyon.com/indexe.html

My favorite part of my Summer vacation. If there was a way for the rest of us to invest in this, I would. They are going to enlarge the runway, put in a hotel, maybe a casino and shopping. Somewhere, way back in my family there is Indian blood, Canadian Black Foot I'm told, but no documentation to back it up. I had a great time there. Hope you find it worth the look.

[tedmoe48]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GS&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Ya'll look at this 2 year of GS, note last year around the beginning of Sep. Should the next 4-5 weeks looks as sluggish as last year for GS, then a buy sometime in early Sep this fall may be timely. It worked for me last year. DD and all the regular disclaimers apply.

[dontbothermec]

Nope, I bleeding, adding to my angst is a stock I wanted to buy @ $25 which is now up to $30 in less than a week.

That HW is annoying me too, who would of guessed it'd go up? Dusa is killing me. I shoulda kept NVDA longer.

[tedmoe48]

Anne, tell me you covered your ONNN short ahead of this morning!!!!

MTSX and IOTN are at the mercy of the Pentagon, the DOD and the $$$ chopping block.

What are you seeing on DUSA, it's on the list?

PARL, still waiting on some insider buys, if they won't buy it, why should we?

It's interesting to watch them push Nat Gas down, the water in the Gulf is warm, the tropics are ripe for a tropical distrubance. Look at some calls for Nov/Dec in the money. One storm and you'll be happy. IMO

TRMP is getting killed, no buyer? Watch this one, I bet it dose a U-turn soon.

[tedmoe48]

there are no slips...and no, I love the ladies...my ex wives might say "too much". I was only saying that catching the falling knifes today might look likek foolhardy heroics in retrospect on the inscription of your tombstone. thanks a lot wise gal

[dontbothermec]

"Billy don't be a hero, come back and make me your wife..."

Oh God, is that a freudian slip? Are you trying to disclose your sexual orientation? NO, I won't imagine it.

[tedmoe48]

Dick, it's the lyrics of a popular late 60's early 70's song..."Billy don't be a hero, come back and make me your wife..."

Couldn't care less if you are Billy, Willy or just silly or if your not, but I do miss his (or her) posts. You fiesty ole bugger! Bet you were hell on wheels during your hayday. Hope your health keeps you in the Ring, at least on a email level for many years to come. Now... What the heck you watching...not the some old pups of the dow an Q... got something to get my pulse thumping???

I want ID under $16, I want LVLT under $4.5, NVDA under $40, two hours alone with Liz Claymon on CNBC and to win the lottery. Billy would know what to tell me, so I could achieve all these...LOL

[dontbothermec]

Bounce? Is this it? Pitiful.

[stricklybiz]

Ted, Just curious. When you "talk" to me do you think you're talking to Billy? I'd try to disabuse you of the notion but I think we've been through that before.

If, though, you think I'm a liar why would you bother to addressme?

[tedmoe48]

Oh yah, bounce alright, like a superball in a dryer. I think I'll just watch from a safe distance. I have a shopping list,and will pounce when I feel like the sharpnel is already stuck in someone else. Billy don't be a hero...

[stricklybiz]

Good morning, all. Reuters says that we are in for a dead-cat bounce today. So? Any old bounce in a storm, say I.

Up and Adam!!!

[dontbothermec]

Yeah, and also: short end of the stick, short of breath, short and sweet.

[tedmoe48]

Shorts...don't forget your memory or temper

[stricklybiz]

I simply don't flaunt my short positionS. One is in my bank account.

[dontbothermec]

What a whiner. You obviously don't have enough short positions.

[stricklybiz]

Ouch!!!!!!!!!!

[stricklybiz]

Ted, Thanks for the health wish. Happy you had a successful trip.

Here's a clip from an MTS PR. Announcemnets appeared in the U.S. official pubs (formerly Commerce Business Daily) so it's real:

Metal Storm Provides Potential US Navy Contract Clarification
Wednesday July 25, 8:31 pm ET

ARLINGTON, VA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jul 25, 2007 -- Metal Storm Limited (NasdaqCM:MTSX - News) and (ASX:MST.AX - News).


Metal Storm (the Company) wishes to clarify its previous announcement (Potential US Navy Contract) to the market on Wednesday, July 25, 2007.

On November 17, 2006, the Company advised the market of a potential contract with the US Navy Space & Warfare Center (SPAWAR) for the production of one (1) anti-personnel unattended weapons pod system utilizing Electronic Ballistic Technology (EBT) and one (1) operator unit. At that time the Company expected to be advised of the outcome of this potential contract by December 30, 2006. Since that time the Company has kept the market informed of the status of this potential contract.

On June 12, 2007, the Company advised the market that in keeping with the normal contracting processes of the US Navy, it had received a formal Request for Proposal (RFP) for this contract. In response to that RFP, the Company provided its formal response to the US Navy's request by the due date June 13, 2007.

These announcements related to submissions to the US Navy Space & Warfare Center (SPAWAR) in San Diego, California.

On Wednesday, July 25, 2007, the Company advised the market that Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCCD), Dahlgren, Virginia, has placed a notice on the US Federal Business Opportunities website, and the Navy Electronic Commerce on Line (NECO) website that it intends to award on a sole-source basis to Metal Storm an order for one (1) 40mm Weapon Pod Assembly, one (1) Electronic Fire Control Unit for assembly and three (3) 40mm 4042 Weapon Assemblies.

These are separate and distinct opportunities for the company. In the future, the company will advise progress on each using the whole name to ensure they are fully identified.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070725/0282704.html

[tedmoe48]

Back in the saddle. Had an awesome time in Vegas. Went to the Grand Canyon (west rim), Hoover Dam, and all the normal Strip stuff. My dad won some cash, I bought at least one new Candelier.

Perpare yourselves for your wishes to come true, I tossed lucky pennies into the air and watched them fall thousands of feet to the bottom of the Canyon. Dick, health, Anne Wealth, and happiness for myself.

Looks like I missed a dismal week in the market, good time to be gone. IOTN stinking up the joint, MTSX stuck in the mud, PARL has fallen and can't get up!!! What are you all doing?

[dontbothermec]

Dick I agree, it was worth at least $35. The point of my post was that it was not undervalued as the lackey published, as 5X earnings would have been fairer. 2X earnings was not reasonable, especially with the potential to turn its patents to widespread opportunity and that their earnings were only from the govt. for research....low margin earnings at best.

But, I think I see the light now.....do not owm any company likely to be bought by NOC. I'm sure some have no qualms about manipulating the market to get a bargain. Some would be tempted to buy NOC stock to get in on the gravy train, but I want nothing to do with them. I know my father didn't liked them either, even though he was lent to them often, and I suspect he knew a lot more about them than I ever will.

[stricklybiz]

Ted/Anne, I didn't care for the premium offered for KEYW by NOC and accepted by the ever-vigilant board.

My real objection was to my loss of the opportunity to grow with Essex which IMO had a potential share price of $50 to $100 once it was able to commercialize its innovative products and deliver them in lost rather than one-off like America's Cup yachts. The company had an alsmot unlimited future, I believed then and do now.

[dontbothermec]

Ted, throw a few pennies for me. I'd like to win the lotto. I'd like Dick to be healthy enough to travel. I'd like to find a mother lode.

Have a wonderful vacation. Mention the Valley of Fire as a place worth seeing while in Vegas. It is loaded with petroglyphs and is easy to get to. Many believe, it is on the Ley line, and has unual energy. My husband fell about 15 feet off a ledge, suffering numerous abrasions and contusions, and he was completely healed within 24 hours....unbelievable!

[tedmoe48]

Anne is right, 2X earnings is a fair price for a business. But we still think ESSEX was worth more in the long run.

Got to drive to Tallahassee to catch a flight to Memphis, to catch a flight to Vegas. NO chance of being delayed anywhere, no way Jose'. One drawback of living on the Red Neck Riviera, off the beaten track, in the sticks is there are no direct flights anywhere (except ATL).

I'll check email later this week. I plan to throw lucky pennies into the Grand Canyon this weekend. If you have a wish, let me know, I'll toss one for you. You only need to believe.

For your entertainment, watch the tug of war on DNDN, the big boys will be tugging it hard to ensure the July $7.5 calls expire worthless, all week it should be within .30 on either side of $7.5. I think.

[dontbothermec]

That article about Essex being pricey has interested me enough to do some research on two other stocks that I follow which have been recently taken-over.

DJO take-over premium 8% @ $1.3B, rev. was $445M, profit was $246M....so the author would consider this a pricey takeover as well. (5.28 X profit)

TONS takeover premium 13% @ $585M, rev was $815M, profit was $185M (3.16 X profit)....of course TONS hardly had any investors to protest.

My opinion on such scanty research is that there is no formula, it is whatever they can get by with. Both stocks (as did KEYW)had a big decline prior to announcement of the takeover:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TONS&t=1y
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=djo

It's really too bad that the stats are no longer available for other takeovers like LSS, KEYW, & HYDL.

[dontbothermec]

I think they put that article in the paper for you, Disgruntled Dick!

Ted is just out of GRI training, he could expound on how to value a business if he wanted to. When I took it 16 years ago, a business was worth a lot more than 2X earnings.

Now that we know what the big guys consider pricey, I guess it behooves us to make sure WE don't pay too much.