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FNMA/FMCC are dead thanks to Obama, Bush, Clinton and the DEMS. Only Trump, not REPS, will breathe new life back into them.
Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/14/mortgage-refinancing-surges-35percent-in-one-week-as-interest-rates-hit-lowest-level-in-over-a-year.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
This Saturday is the anniversary of the NWS 08/17/2012
This Madness Must End!
FMCC should have a bumper year w/ the refinancing about to happen…
ukraine was being used by dirty u.s. officials like hillary and biden they were double crossed into a genocide of white christians in ukraine. international j's will install the new police sate of kazaria.. ashkenazi turkish will fill the elite void of ukraine..shared with chabbad.. theyll probly have us pay to rebuild it.. to include FnF in this post.. maybe some fannie freddy expand into rebuilding Ukraine.. we could get paid.. lol thats bad though i have to stop saying that.. im not for that..
Louie is on point.. I have 3/4 position currently. But I'm thinking of pulling half that and its a bad prospect but it would be for a long haul if instability continues and they continue to push her illegal C which she got Brandon's C money illegally. If they can keep up her crowds they will try and steal bigger than ever. The real "Biggest Voter Fraud System Ever." A Brandon quote.. now they weekend at bernies him and The Kamel takes his place without due process. Suddenly her twerking competitons r drawing crowds.. the international j's have control of every lever..
No movement until the Lamberth’s decision. Hopefully any time now🤞
We would fall respectively under #9 and #11. We are dealing with weaponized government going against us shareholders - and the twins would most definitely be in the picture if any city is to be restructured. He's not going to advertise releasing the GSE's, that would create a lot of needless attacking. He can do it when the time is right, and in his own good time, with input from his administration, so he is not going to make it an election point right now. House and Senate majorities will also matter, since Chevron has been decided and it brings the house and Senate into any release scenario. Neither party knows what the majorities will be, but it is a key to unlocking us from never ending enslaved servitude.
#21. $RELEASE $Fannie/Freddie fm 16 yr US GOV HOSTAGE as
you wrote in your Nov 2021 letter !
21. RELEASE Fannie/Freddie fm 16 yr US GOV HOSTAGE as you already wrote in your Nov 2021 letter ! pic.twitter.com/ubQWluLi4F
— Cmdr Ron Luhmann (@usnavycmdr) August 12, 2024
This is nonsense bidding. When it opened FNMA was way ahead of FMCC as has been the case for years. The MMs would not let FMCC catch up with FNMA. There was one time this year when I converted my FMCC to FNMA and then FNMA took its place of being 10% higher then FMCC. Pre market bidding is NONSENSE. So dont assume they will stay this way for long after market opens.
Hey Shelly, Is U.S. Law and court talk banned here too? If it pertains to a public figure? Clearly this stock board would not exist if so. You wonder why the only posts are either "BOOM" or "its going down" LMAO I'm outta here.
Oh, not saying Blackstone is flipping shares but it IS a strategy and is probably the only strategy over past many years to make money trading GSE shares. I wish, in hindsight, that I had done so with my little holdings rather than sit here like a bump on a log and make absolutely nothing. Way back when, I bought the GSEs as dividend payers and over the ensuing 20 years, the government's intervention has, literally, cost me millions of dollars in dividend-lost payments.
sherwin, sherman, i dont give a crap about how spell checker came out the stock sucks. companies are great, bunch of complainers never doing anything about anything and fighting for nothing. between Isnub, Ps, and daily useless chatter, no wonder nothing has changed for 15 years.
WHO'S BUYING? Are they thinking this is a Trump trade if DJT wins in November? Lets see who these companies are !
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/fnma/ownership
Seems they maybe looking towards the housing market in the future of large investment companies own large holdings of homes.
BGF World Financials A2
BLACKROCK
https://www.blackrock.com/sg/en/products/229936/bgf-world-financials-fund-a2-usd
IS Lord Abbett Bond Debenture SP
https://www.lordabbett.com/en/strategies/mutual-funds/bond-debenture-fund.html
American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/agthx/quote
Capital Group Growth Fund of America
https://www.capitalgroup.com/about-us/news-room/Capital_Group_and_KKR_Form_Exclusive_Strategic_Partnership_to_Create_Public-Private_Investment_Solutions.html?cid=p80277509603&ad_id=76691134448154&ext_id=&&msclkid=9dff39df59a91af3092c5f6b974cbc6e&gclid=9dff39df59a91af3092c5f6b974cbc6e&gclsrc=3p.ds
Oh wow. Do we know the identity of this buyer ?
When was the last time you saw that Blackstone had GSE shares, 11M is quite significant if you think they’re only going to rinse repeat…for a 0.50 flip. I am pleasantly surprised, but also cautious with Lame judge.
I trust him as much as a skateboarding 0.05 Gse guru.
Fmcc
Someone’s buying FNMA…..
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/fnma/ownership
Lucky to hold 2 cents by weekend, LMAO! If the election is rigged back to .49.
Yes, good post! We are invested in good, sound , financially stable companies that should be able to handle a recession. I just hope Sandra doesn't gut the companies in the name of DEI.
It should be starting now, but its not, lets hope recession does not do anything but shine on GSEs ability to handle it for housing.
February 2025 we all should all have fat trade accounts depending on who wins the presidential election.
;)
Clients could not login during selling off .
Banking crisis caused by four problems.
1. Investors did not want MBS pool with interest rate at 3% during 2021 , because investors earned less money with low interest rates.
Instead investors want MBS pool with higher interest rates, because they earn much higher than lowest interest rates.
2. All Treasury Bonds are all time low due to higher interest rates due inflation from Ukraine war
All kanks continue to hold. Can't sell !
3. Landlords of commercial real estates are defaulting on commercial loans
Charles Schwab has two different businesses.
1. Bank
I leave it blank
2. Broker
I leave it blank
It's over now
We made it.
From time to time, both fhfa and mnuchin always repeated many times that Congress must involve in order to exit conservatorship. Why?
Executive power alone will have no force over another branch of judicial.
However with both legislative branch and executive branch, they have power over judicial branch.
Printing press getting ready for a workout….
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 STARTING TOMORROW THE US WILL START $30 BILLION PER MONTH TREASURY BUY BACKS 👀
— Jack Straw (@JackStr42679640) August 7, 2024
Money printer go BRRR❗️
S.Alderson pic.twitter.com/HUoY6dqyB2
Not sure about any POTUS executive order. I do suspect that any exec order dealing with the twins would put half of Congress and the Senate on the war path PDQ, and then of course lawsuits expedited to SCOTUS.
Sounds good Looks good !!
Sounds about right Louie, now FHFA and Treasury can’t do anything!
No release!
No re write of the SPSA
But !! POTUS CAN with a stroke of a pen! Does that mean POTUS can order the terms of the release and bypass Congress/FHFA/Treasury?????
MMs playing games. They are sticking gap openings all over the markets. Including GSEs.
$BAZINGA ! - the $Pre-mkt lookin' $GOOD !
$Refi $Picture continues to improve
with candidates at $Two-year $High -
By Brad Finkelstein - August 05, 2024, 1:51 p.m. EDT
https://x.com/NatMortgageNews/status/1820554874129436773
https://x.com/NatMortgageNews/status/1820613257616408947
https://x.com/NatMortgageNews/status/1818289445084233800
While not exactly a boom, the picture for the refinance business is brighter
than it has been for some time. The recent drop in the 10-year-yield
should help even more.
A week ago, the number of refinance candidates was already at a nearly
two-year high, driven by easing bond yields and mortgage rates, said
Andy Walden, Intercontinental Exchange vice president of research and
analytics in a statement from last Thursday. Twice as many borrowers
were in the money to be able to do a refi, with three times as many
"highly qualified" candidates, versus a year ago, even as today's rates
are at a similar level with that time.
On Monday, ICE Mortgage Technology's own data put the average
30-year conforming rate at 6.48%, its lowest level since May 2023.
That drop pushed the number of borrowers in the money to refi to
2.4 million, the most since April 2022. That was up almost 60% from
a week ago, with another 900,000 borrowers gaining refi incentive,
Walden said in an update on Monday morning.
Zillow's rate tracker put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.98%
at 11 a.m. Monday morning, down 19 basis points from the previous week's average.
Since Aug. 1, when the 10-year Treasury broke below 4% for the first time since
Feb. 2, the yield has continued to decline, and was at 3.76% as of 11 a.m. Monday.
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Based on recent spreads, it would put mortgage rates in the 6.39-6.44% range.
Optimal Blue had the spread at 260 basis points as of Aug. 1. Rates for the
30-year would need to fall to 6.37% for a significant boost in the population,
which would provide a refinance incentive to another 400,000 borrowers,
Walden said.
With the continuing turmoil in the stock market triggered by a weak jobs report
on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off by over 953 points at
the same time, helping fuel the move into bonds. When bond prices increase
because of demand, the yield falls.
Bank of America Securities analysts said the Federal Reserve missed the
opportunity for a rate cut last week because of its "data dependency/rear
view mirror approach" to the markets.
"Due to the Fed dawdle, the risk scenario of 3.25% 10-year Treasury yield
that we have highlighted in recent weeks and months now appears inevitable,"
a commentary from Chris Flanagan and Henry Navarrete Brooks said.
"Mortgage rates are likely to drop below 6% in this scenario, a positive for
housing turnover."
Even before the markets sank to these depths, some were already seeing
more opportunities for refis.
Optimal Blue's market data for Aug. 1 put the share of refi locks at 21.3%.
Its Market Volume Index for cash-out locks was at 11 and for rate-and-term
refis, it was at 14; activity for this purpose alone was up over 52% from
the previous day.
End of June data from Optimal Blue put the refi share at 16% of the market,
with the cash-out MVI at 8 and the rate and term at 7.
BTIG issued an update to its mortgage originations forecast on Aug. 5,
which kept its 2024 purchase outlook in the area of $1.3 trillion, a 3%
year-over-year gain.
But it upped its refi projections to $327.9 billion, a 30% annual gain,
versus the 22% increase it foretold in June. That being said, it is still
more conservative than either Fannie Mae or the Mortgage Bankers
Association, which is predicting $346 billion and $431 billion in refis
respectively.
BTIG created its own framework to contemplate the size of a potential
refi market. It gives a higher probability (up to 50%) if the loan rate is
50 basis points or more in-the-money and a 33% chance if it's less than that.
"We acknowledge that this isn't perfect but it at least provides us with
a ballpark estimate of where term refi could be absent modeling each
cohort based on potential prepayment speeds," Soham Bhonsle, an
analyst at BTIG said in a report. "Net-net what we estimate is that if
rates were to fall to the 6%-6.5% range, there could be about 1.9 million
refiable loans or $680 billion in dollar terms."
Meanwhile, tappable home equity also hit a record high, Walden said
in a press release for ICE's Mortgage Monitor report for August.
Outstanding mortgage debt hit an all-time high of $13.8 trillion in
June, ICE said. But because of rising prices, mortgage holder equity
reached its own record high of $17.6 trillion in the second quarter.
Tappable equity, which ICE defines the amount a borrower can
access while maintaining a 20% cushion, rose to a high of $11.5 trillion
in June, up 4% from the first quarter and 9.2% on the same day last year.
Approximately 32 million people with a mortgage can tap at least
$100,000 in equity; 4.6 million have $500,000; and 1.2 million can access $1 million or more.
This can be accessed several ways, including through a cash-out refi or
via closed- or open-end home equity products. But given that two-thirds of those
with tappable equity also have first mortgage rates at 4% or below, they are
more likely to turn to the latter products.
"As the Fed raised short-term lending rates, accessing equity became more
expensive for homeowners, evidenced by the anemic growth in such lending
despite record levels of available, tappable equity," said Walden.
"Industry expectations that the Fed will soon begin easing short-term rates
could gradually change that dynamic, given the more direct impact short-term
rates have on home equity rate offerings, and lenders would do well to prepare."
At the other end of the equity spectrum, fewer than 325,000 homeowners are
underwater on their mortgages, putting just 0.6% of active loans in a situation
where the borrower owes more than it is worth. Another 4.2% have an equity
position in their properties of under 10%.
That is in-line with a recent report from Attom.
ICE warned that Texas, Florida and Louisiana are worth watching for increases
in underwater borrowers as inventory grows and home prices soften in some areas.
As election nears, should investors reconsider Fannie Mae?
By Bonnie Sinnock - July 30, 2024, 10:04 a.m. EDT
Fannie Mae's penny stock has been getting more attention amid election speculation
about a change in its status this year, trading more consistently above $1 per share
and at one point recently nearing $2 for the first time since 2021.
The prospect of an exit from conservatorship in a second Trump administration has
some experts looking at what this could mean for investors.
"The value of the common stock would be highly uncertain in a recap, but preferred
issuers are likely to be redeemed or converted at face value," Vlae Kershner, an
investor, wrote on Seeking Alpha, referencing a comment by former FHFA Director
Mark Calabria in a Bloomberg interview in which he pointed out that "the value
really is in the senior preferreds."
While Calabria, who is speaking later this morning at an event in Washington, has
indicated a resumption of his work to free the GSEs is possible, he also has
acknowledged that it has challenges.
Some experts have questioned the likelihood of a release from conservatorship
in the next four years because the two entities currently play a central role in
housing that such changes could upset. (Prior to the Great Recession and
conservatorship, the GSEs played a smaller role on the market.)
"Trouble is, when a financial institution gets to a certain size and scope, it can
only function with sovereign support," said Chris Whalen wrote in his recent
Institutional Risk Analyst blog. Whalen is an independent analyst, investor
and an NMN columnist.)
At Freddie Mac, our mission is to help borrowers achieve sustainable homeownership.
That requires more than offering innovative, accessible mortgage...
Partner Insights from Freddie Mac Single Family
The earnings Fannie reported Tuesday are more a reflection of the financial
soundness of entities in conservatorship than its status as an investment
at this point, and they do show its ability to operate as more of a standalone
entity is a work in progress.
In an earnings call, CEO Priscilla Almodovar characterized Fannie's
results as a means of continuing its work toward reducing its capital
shortfall and building its net worth.
Its latest numbers show single-family loan purchases rebounded from
the first quarter's drop to lows not seen since the turn of the century but
did not match year-ago results, with its bottom line bearing out a somewhat
similar trend.
The government-sponsored enterprise's net income was $4.5 billion during
the second quarter. In comparison, Fannie earned $4.3 billion in the previous
fiscal period and $5 billion a year earlier.
The large quasi-governmental mortgage investor bought $86 billion in home
mortgages during the three-month period between April and June, which includes
the spring buying season. That number was up from $62 billion in the first quarter,
but down from $89 billion a year earlier.
This year's increase in loan purchases, combined with a shift toward a more
aggressive interest-rate cut forecast at Fannie, suggests volumes may not get
any lower than they did in the first quarter of this year, but expansion is still
limited by market constraints.
There's demographic demand for housing, but affordability is under strain for new
homeowners and many existing ones are sitting on historically low interest rates
that deter moves and limit supply, potentially making Fannie more attractive as a
mission-centric entity than an investment.
"Our economists expect that similar affordability challenges will persist for the
remainder of this year," Almodovar said.
The majority of the loans Fannie bought in the second quarter came from home
purchases. Refinancing activity did account for $11 billion of the single-family
mortgages bought during the second quarter, up from $9 billion in Q1 but down from $13 billion in Q2 2023.
Net revenues rose to $7.34 billion in the second quarter, relative to almost $7.1 billion
in the first and a little over $7.1 during the Q4 2023.
Fannie recorded a net $300 million benefit for credit losses in the quarter resulting
primarily from the release of single-family reserves due to differences between
actual and forecast home prices. This offset an increase in multifamily reserves
and a provision for new SF acquisitions.
"The increase in multifamily reserves was due primarily to continued declines in actual
and near term projected property values, and the impact of new 30 day loan delinquencies,"
Chief Financial Officer Chryssa Halley said during the earnings call.
Halley warned that there could be pressure on single-family loan performance too, although
Fannie's serious delinquency rate fell another notch in the quarter to 48 basis points
from 51 in the previous fiscal period and remains near historic lows.
"A slowing economy may impact the credit performance of loans and our single family
guarantee books, which could lead to an increase in our single-family serious
delinquency rate," she said.
Was release ever on the table?
I would assume NOW either FHFA releases with the blessing of treasury but with authority from Congress, but no release mumble jumble agreements between FHFA and treasury is required or even can happen any longer- definite Congressional authority required now. Congress can push them (FHFA-TREASURY) to release or prevent the twins from release, but together they (FHFA, Treasury) can not deterrmine releasing without Congress giving the final say so. This is how I see it JMHO
This would also apply to Treasury and FHFA trying to pull anymore agreements out of their wazoo. This is good, because even though FHFA and Treasury can or could be controlled to do things via one party or president, it would still take congress to initiate THE LAW. How this pans out based on who is elected will now have less bearing then if Congress and Senate are both biased, party wise, towards who is elected president. It could be better... or worse, cross your fingers.
If president, house and Senate are all biased towards one party, then absolutely something could get done fast.
Boom, I called it again. New prediction, .86
On the same note does that mean the release between FHFA & Treasury is also off the table? Now do we need Congress for release?
One thing this truly impacts is the warrants! They can not just do another agreement to extend them now, so they have a predetermined shelf life now and can not be renewed without congress doing so. No more signing agreements betweeen FHFA and Treasury then good ol'boy back slapping, wink, wink, let's go get lunch on the GSE's again. Any agreement between FHFA and Treasury would now be in question and any new gimmick agreements are DOA unless put through congress.
I have one post ont his FMCC board. Apologies to those I have not been able to repond to yet.
$Boooom ! Fannie / Freddie and the Chevron ruling REVERSAL !
Everything from the CFPB's new rules on mortgage servicing to regulations on the use of consumer data by Google can be challenged and with a far greater likelihood of success than before the Supreme Court decision, writes @rcwhalen. #mortgage https://t.co/YxiJzNWuDN
— National Mortgage News (@NatMortgageNews) August 4, 2024
Wall Street is brutal.
— Compounding Quality (@QCompounding) August 3, 2024
If you read one thing today, make it this: pic.twitter.com/gPTHLy614l
When is the check coming?
That is a crazy number of shares. Good for you! Wish I had the fortitude to go that deep in common shares.
I still got my order in for $1 FNMA. I doubt it gets filled. I think many have orders in at $1 and below. Market tanking ever since the retirement of the turnip and installing of the hyena.
added 5,000 FMCC very cheapies today - 600,000 avg < .95
future dividends if only .50 = $300,000/yr income stream
GSEs were payin' $2/sh div & they're MUCH BIGGER & Stronger now
Lamberth Damages check coming in near future
Almost time to pickup more share
Difference not worth talking about !!-
What was the first level in the old admin plan for cap steps reached levels to gain steps to out of conservatorship?
Was the first level 150 billion total to some type of freedom?
I believe 250 billion was needed for dividends, etc.
Does anyone remember?
I'm down to 1 post on FNMA board so asking here.
tia
I believe we dropped .70 since nearing $2.
Still buying those cheapies ?
I believe that Freddie out did Fannie as far as EPS. Even with the CRT give away!
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