Forex Technical Review

[creppie]

(EUR/USD) Where'd that bounce come from? I was right about the USD losing strength around 73.25 but this one point dollar correction results in a $4 diff on the cross chart?

The cross's riding the top bollie. Will buy on dip.

[Ataglance2]

USD/ CHF:

Daily..



60 min:

[tsafi]

USD
Fed will continue to ease interest rates in order to try and salvage the ruins of the US economy.

"There are a variety of reasons for the dollar's general weakness. The major ones are the bearish outlook on the economy and expectations of more rate cuts. The Fed may cut rates by half a percentage point next month and another quarter point in Juneג€ said the head of economic strategy of Bank of America.

Despite the unexpected rise in existing home sales of 2.9% which was the biggest jump in a year, the greenback continued to linger in bear territory.

As for today, there are two major events expected to come from the US. The first is the Yearly National HPI Composite index which measures the annual change in the average price of a single-family home in 20 metropolitan areas. And is expected at 13:00 GMT The index is expected to be released at -10.5% and has a previous figure of -9.1%. A bit later at 14:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence is expected to be released with a forecast of 73.5 which is slightly lower than last month's release of 75.00.

The expectations for weak US data will most probably help to push the greenback further down, and it appears that the short breath of fresh air which caused the greenback to gain against most currencies is probably over(maybe who knows ).

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/24/08

EUR/USD
The pair corrected to the 1.5300 levels which is a key Fibonacci(not the king today) level yet failed to make a bearish breach. There is a bullish cross forming on the daily chart, and together with a sharp bullish spike it appears that there is now more room to run upwards. Next target price might be 1.5660.
GBP/USD
The cable is in the middle of a bullish trend which according to the daily chart has positive momentum. The RSI is floating at 50 and the slow stochastic is showing no reversal crosses. It appears that the bullish trend might continue with a target price of 2.0070.
USD/JPY
There is a very distinct narrowing bullish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as the pair now floats on the bottom barrier of it. The slow stochastic is showing a triple top formation with a positive slope, which indicates that the continuation of the bullish trend is quite imminent. Going long might be the right way to go today.
USD/CHF
The bullish channel which was initiated at 0.9800 continues with full momentum. The Slow Stochastic of the 1 hour chart implies on an additional bullish move, and the RSI is showing that there might be a breach through the upper level of the channel in the next 48 hours. Going long with tight stops might be preferable today.

[creppie]

Right, I'm not sure I'd be the best forex trader. Seems like there's far too much to keep track of. Figure, I'll just watch the USD and EUR/USD charts for now and see what I can learn.

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/24/08

EUR/USD
There is a bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart, as the pair now shows moderate bearish momentum and is floating in the middle of the channel. The slow stochastic is pointing on additional room, for the correction, and the next target price might be 1.5300.
GBP/USD
The cable has breached through the 1.9810 which a key Fibonacci level(Remmber on the FOREX Fibonacci is the king) and has validated the next bearish move. The RSI is heading to the 20 level and the slow stochastic shows no cross. It appears that going short with tight stops might be a good choice.
USD/JPY
The pair is showing a strong bullish break on the daily chart and the RSI is floating at 50. The Bollinger bands are still very wide, and no crosses are seen on all time scales of the Slow Stochastic. This indicates that there should be no up coming reversal move, and that the bullish trend might continue. Next target price might be 100.50.
USD/CHF
There is a very tight bullish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as the pair now floats in the mid section. The slow stochastic is showing a positive slope formation and the daily chart is showing very wide Bollinger bands. It appears that the bullish momentum will continue, probably up to the top level of the channel at 1.0230.

[tsafi]

I am a TA trader but on days like now sometime TA is not a rocket science.
There is so many things going on, on the local and global market its hard to predict where we are going, and I think the best trading is on a daily matter until we will see a clean way for long on the USD.
In personal I think the worst is not behind us, but that’s base only on my personal feeling(:
Also you have to think on the global and not on the local
I think the dollar value will loss more in the next month to come.

[creppie]

You mean that you think the fundamentals may be strong enough to beat those bearish trendlines, you're saying?

I think there's another prime rate cut coming within the next 6 months and things won't pick up permanently until we hit the 4% mark they brought it down after the dot-com bust. So, if rate-cuts are bad for dollar value, then we're not out of the woods yet.

Also, people won't receive their cash influx checks until late in the year. That, too, should hit the dollar value, right?

[tsafi]

The US dollar rallied as the Fed cut a bit less than was expected by many. This may finally be the start of a longer term reversal as it makes a base. A dollar reversal would be negative for commodity prices and positive for stocks.
but i think the fundamental is stronger then the TA for long

[Ataglance2]

big reason the dollars rally is stuff like this happening (intervention from forein central banks)

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27816989

[BIG BALLER]

dat chart looks sweeeeet!!! Looking like it's bouncing nicely off bottom!!!!:)

>>>N00B here ~ gotta lotta homework ta do wit all this Forex mumbo-jumbo!!!*LOL*

;o)

êZ^!!!

[creppie]

EUR/USD..

$USD chart suggests it has the momentum right now. Rally might be spent after today but that bottomed out MACD could cross nicely and suggest continued strength after some short consolidation. I bet it sees 73.25-45 before losing strength.

EUR/USD.. nice base at $1.54. Breaks that and it sees ~$153.15-20. With the daily MACD(12,26) down crossing there, I might expect it to see that low $1.53 area. Breaks that and goes to $1.50.

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/21/08


EUR/USD


After making a sharp correction to the 1.5400 level, the pair is now consolidating on that area. The 4 hour chart is showing a strong reversal cross after a three top formation with negative slope. The daily chart is supporting the reversal notion, and it appears that going long might be a good choice today.


GBP/USD


The cable is floating around the key Fibonacci level of 1.9850 and is now regaining bullish momentum. There is a bullish cross forming on slow stochastic of the 4 hour chart, which indicates that this might a good entry point for a long position.


USD/JPY


The pair is about to make a second attempt to breach through the 100.00 level after the first attempt failed to validate the bullish breach. The momentum is very strong at the moment and if a breach will occur, it will validate a possible additional bullish trend that might take the pair back to the 101.00 levels.


USD/CHF


The daily chart is showing 4 consecutive days on an increase, as the momentum is bullish than ever. The slow stochastic of the daily chart is floating on mid levels and shows no crosses. Going long might be a great position today.

[tsafi]

I trade it all, stock ,FOREX commodity but my biggest problem is that all my account is in US $$$ and I live in Israel so I lost just on all my account this years 17% that’s a big boomer but that’s life (:

[NeedMoreCash]

You know earlier I used to play only stocks and my profit was limited from stocks and I had to convert it from dollars to my local currency. So, I used to get upset when dollar value used to go down,because I would get less local currency. But,since I started playing FOREX I don't care what happens to dollar. I am winner either way. It looks like dollar would resume its downtrend soon.

[tsafi]

You know its so hard this days, since I am a TA trader look like the global fundamental and lack of the market clarity are stronger then the TA .
Its hard days to trade.
For me I trade these days for very short period on the chart with a high leverage on the Pips contract.
The USD didn’t say its last word I think it will keep go lower since most of the central banks over the world will fallow the US and will also cut there interest and that will keep hurting the US dollar on the way down

[NeedMoreCash]

EUR/USD- down almost 500 pips in 3 days. I knew it had to correct. I am watching now to go in for a bullish reversal, may be to 1.6. I would love to take 600 pips.

[Ataglance2]

absolutely.....
One thing about the dollar is ,there is a bigger picture than just the index chart since most currencies ,and all commodities are pegged to the dollar.So meaning a whole lot more variables ,leading to a solid conclusion to the exactly timing and Price.Which makes the dollar alot more complex than any other currency .After saying that..It does look like a correction going on..but I have to think it will be short lived for now .Keep your eye on the gold chart to chart its next moves.

[creppie]

Where's she headed? Next support 1.55 then 1.54-ish... I'm applying stock chart logic to this. Does that even work in currencies?


...can't get the eur/usd chart to post here.

[Ataglance2]

well ,looks like the total opposite happened today..
Following Fibonacci analysis,what we are seeing is wave D..
so basically we can expect wave D to go below the latest low on the 16th.

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/19/08
EUR/USD

After bottoming out at 1.5620 after the Fed rate cut turmoil, the pair appears to be resuming its familiar bullish path. The daily chart is showing a bullish cross on the slow stochastic as the hourlies are still moderately bearish. Buying on dips looks to be an excellent choice today but only for day/swing trading.


GBP/USD

The cable is floating between two major Fibonacci key levels with bullish momentum on the daily chart. The 4 hour RSI is floating on the 50 level with a positive slope which indicates that we might see a test of the 2.0230 level before the weekend. Being on the buy side appears to be preferable.


USD/JPY

The 4 hour chart is showing that the bullish corrective momentum has diminished and is now slightly bearish. The bearish cross on the slow stochastic strengthens the bearish behavior of the pair, and could see a valid target price at 98.10.

USD/CHF

After a very sharp drop and a test of the 0.9630 level, the pair has shown a moderate correction. The daily chart is giving mixed signals, and the 4 hour chart is slightly bearish. if you are a Forex traders i will advised to wait for a clearer signal before entering the market with that pair.

[tsafi]

Man there is much panics out there, trader will loss tons of money.
"Gold sales up their sleeves to shore up the weak dollar" I don’t know about that if there is any intention by institute or the center banking regarding the GOLD/weak dollar price.
History show weak dollar higher prices for GOLD

[Ataglance2]

thats the beauty ,
of being a forex trader ..we really dont care about the economies in order to make money.Your absolutely right about the dollar,by knowing whats happening with the dollar ,you should be able to trade any currency pair with great success .what I was saying ,I believe the feds have the IMF gold sales up their sleeves to shore up the weak dollar.Otherwise they would be more concerned about its weakness.

[tsafi]

Well the rate cut will help the US economic and will give some stability for short term but will not help the dollar.
But, maybe because you live in the US your emphasis on the US economic is much more imported then the why I feel, you see I don’t care about the US economic or on my perspective the Israeli economic I try to make money any where I can as long as the money come around that’s ok (
Because we trade on the FOREX market and lots of us trade the USD (I trade a lot USD/IL)
The only thing I care is what the DOLLARE will do, the US don’t care much about the dollar
More imported is to have finance stability right now.
Any cut on the interest will make the US dollar weaker and the local currency of coin stronger .
You will see the dollar will get weaker after the cut on the short mid term ,maybe a short bounce on the chart but the overall dollar trend will keep go down, and you will see high GOLD /OIL price's as the dollar losing it

[Ataglance2]

one thing to keep in mind..
you are correct about the rate cut and the weakening of the dollar due to that ..thats why I see 160.in the short term for the euro....but dont get blind sided,by what the feds may have up their sleeves..As much as we like poking fun at them ,they absolutely know what they are doing..remember the IMF will be selling alot of gold soon..that will help with the inflation problem and strengthen the dollar..the timing I feel will coincide with the euro hitting 1.60.
thats what I think will happen.

[creppie]

Thanks guys.. Ata -- I'm not looking to short it... I'm actually looking to buy for use in Europe this summer. Haha.. Basically, I'm asking what my best purchase price may be over the course of the next 3 months. If EUR/USD's heading to $2, I'll buy a few thousand euros now and save myself a couple grand on vacation. So, what do you expect to see longer term on this? I mean, if it's likely to top at $1.60, I'll watch that occur and see where it pulls back to, then buy. Just trying to be smart in a practical purchase, not trying to trade. :) ....yet. Haven't played with forex yet, but it's looking super attractive as the market's sucking.

[tsafi]

I will keep short the USD, the FED cut will have a negative impact on the USD .
To look for a reversal on the chart you need some confirmation you are far far away from that

[Ataglance2]

Hi Creppie...
I believe the top is 160.....
once it hits that .short it.
Take a look at the weekly EUR/USD

[creppie]

EUR/USD Pullback?

Hi all -- I've very little experience with forex but read charts in pennyland and am trying to time an EUR purchase for vacation this summer. Also I'm tired of my USD getting crushed and want to know how much more opportunity there is here for gains in holding EUR. Where's the top, $2/EUR?!

So, I find myself looking at this daily USD chart. It looks to me like at least a short-term bullish move is coming as indicators as well as that long doji there suggest oversold.




But then I look at the exchange rate chart and see the cross possibly continuing north.

How do you see this playing out over the next 6 months and year?


Thanks so much!

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/18/08

EUR/USD

After a very sharp bullish trend, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.5750. The daily chart is showing two consecutive bearish bars and the slow stochastic is showing a bearish cross. It appears that there might be a local corrective move before the bullish trend continues.


GBP/USD
The cable is floating at a key Fibonacci of 2.0050 without a significant bearish breach. The 4 hour chart is showing a bullish cross on the slow stochastic and the RSI is floating at the 50 level. It appears that the momentum is bullish, and a valid target price might be 2.0110.


USD/JPY
The pair is showing local bullish momentum on the hourly level after a very violent drop to the 96.00 level. The daily chart is still bearish which means that it might be preferable to sell on highs today when the moderate corrective move ends.

USD/CHF

After bottoming at 0.9650 the pair has been showing steady appreciation and is now traded around 0.9850. The hourlies are showing fresh bullish momentum, and the daily chart supports the bullish notion. The slow stochastic of the daily chart is showing a bullish cross which means that the corrective move might continue to the 0.9960 by tomorrow. Going long with tight stops might be a good choice today

[tsafi]

Forex Technical Review 3/17/08

EUR/USD

The pair continued to show strong bullish momentum overnight, and is now traded around 1.5800. There is a bearish cross forming on the slow stochastic of the 4/6 hour chart which indicates that a local correction might be imminent, before the bullish trend resumes. Buying on dips might be a wise choice today(i think).


GBP/USD

There is a very distinct bullish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as the cable now floats around the bottom level of it. The slow stochastic is indicating a reversal move, which means that it might be a good entry point for a long position if you have the money to hold(:.


USD/JPY

The pair continued to plummet after the very important breach through the 100.00 level was validated. There is local bullish momentum on the hourlies which indicates that we might see a moderate bullish corrective move before the bearish momentum resumes. Selling on highs might be a good strategy today,Always sell on the highs don’t be dreamers….. move on .


USD/CHF

The 4 hour chart is showing a fresh cross on the slow stochastic, and RSI which is floating around the 40 level. This means that on the short term we might see the pair correcting back to the 0.9950 level before resuming the very strong bearish trend. Traders might want to keep track of the pair's fresh high before entering the market with a short position.

More on the USD
In the meantime, there will be a host of key U.S data releases today. The most significant news release will be the TIC Report, which measures the monthly difference in cross-border foreign and domestic purchases of long-term securities. This figure is expected to release better than last months figure of 56.5B, at 60.0B. The other key data today will be the Empire State Business Conditions and the U.S Current Account, both figures are expected to disappoint. The Greenback should stay in grizzly bear mode until after the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and in the highly unlikely situation that today's data surprises on the upside, the USD may find some consolidation its a most i think.

[Ataglance2]

eur/usd 1 hour chart:

negative divergence......also a rising wedge.

[Ataglance2]

do you see what I see?
after taking the fib course on the education board ,this might make sense to you..

[Ataglance2]

starting to show direction ,check out the previous post..

[Ataglance2]

the hedging pair wasn't the best choice..but pick one that is right for you.....GL

[twk000jester]

Will follow your EUR/JPY recommendation. tia jester

[Ataglance2]

60 min chart:
MacD makes be believe price will go to C and retest 160.

[Ataglance2]

EUR/JPY Weekly:

very interesting chart.Looks like a cross road with the trend.It could go either way support is at 156.60
it will be interesting to see what this does in the future.

[Ataglance2]

Im stuck in eur/jpy ,but I still am hanging tight and waiting for the rising wedge to fully form hopefully tonight.As far as the dollar goes ,
just because of the hype and the herd jumping on the dollar short..be cautious ,You've hear of the IMF selling gold..
when they start moving on that the dollar will rally.
Its not a question of if..its when......hope im out of this eur/jpy trade by then..and my timing should be just in a nick of time.Because I see the eur/jpy after this correction ,going to 165,and possible 168.

[twk000jester]

Our you trading any of the EUR/$$$, GBY/$$$, AUD/$$$ or NZD/dollar cross pairs?

It would seem with the current dollar beating these would be the new cross pairs to play this year instead of the typical yen cross pairs of last year.

[sandeeps]

What about just shorting the euro? Or does everybody think that the dollar is deader than here?

[Ataglance2]

eur/jpy 30 min chart:

[twk000jester]

Do you need some more funds to carry you over till your number hits again?

[Ataglance2]

eur/jpy 60 min....

[Ataglance2]

eur/jpy daily.

[Ataglance2]

I couldn't really make heads or tales of eur/jpy ,until I went back to the weekly....clearly in the weeks ahead its a bulls game......check it out.
So in a nut shell the feds plan will do as its intended,this year anyway..just in time for the elections.

[Ataglance2]

ok
g'night.....I think the london session should be a 200 pipper.
.I hope....