First Solar Inc (FSLR)

[Mr. Obvious]

News of series 6 release or even striking another large deal would send their right back up IMO. I have full confidence something is in the works here. These guys are still the leader and the uncertainty will soon fade away. Even the technical chart readers have to see a play here.

[MilesTeg]

Depends on your goals I suppose.

Long term, 2-5 years, I think the company will be fine and those share price estimates are fair.
Short term, I think it goes lower.
You've got 18-24 months of reduced capacity, reduced throughout, and all on a product, series 4, that's commercial viability is questionable.

[Mr. Obvious]

Look at the estimated price per share from numerous people. It's underpriced. Including the article posted.

[MilesTeg]

How do you figure?

The future has never been more uncertain for FSLR.
Big plans for sure, but still need to execute them.

[Mr. Obvious]

Even with the cut it's still underpriced ATM

J.P. Morgan says in trimming its price target to $38 from $41.

[eFinanceMarkets]

First Solar, SunPower price targets cut at J.P. Morgan on oversupply fears
Chinese solar companies' decision to raise production by 15% this year, combined with supply increases from other sources, likely will hurt U.S. solar energy companies First Solar (FSLR -0.6%) and SunPower (SPWR -2.3%) this year, J.P. Morgan says as it maintains Neutral ratings and lowers price targets for both, TheFly.com reports.
FSLR's earnings power will not rebound until 2019, and its risk/reward ratio is balanced, J.P. Morgan says in trimming its price target to $38 from $41.
Although SPWR is somewhat undervalued and has differentiated technology, the stock lacks catalysts and visibility, the firm says in cutting its price target to $8 from $9.

[Mr. Obvious]

Tomorrow is the true test of a reversal.

[Mr. Obvious]

News will send this flying

[Mr. Obvious]

Will it go green today?

[Mr. Obvious]

Looking good so far!

[Mr. Obvious]

Setup for an EPIC bounce here

[MilesTeg]

Fell through $30.

Not sure where bottom is now but swing trades galore.
Probably up 5% tomorrow.

[fly_fisherman]

[Perro of Wall St]

Estimated PPS?

[Gtrading]

Swing trade anyone? Buyem back at 30??

[WEEDWACKO]

FLSR !! LOOKING GOOD !!

[MANUEL MARTIN]

it fell yesterday due to Credit Suisse price target of $29

FSLR needs a lower target from Goldman Sachs, or they will not be able to force it to fall below daily sma50

[akocaman]

What is this rise&fall?

[Catalyst_5474]

Love it. Goes to show that the rest of the world doesn't care what Trump thinks about alternative energy.

[stockhorizon]

ANOTHER BIG WIN

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170216005624/en/Photosol-Selects-Solar-Technology-Power-Utility-Scale-PV

[Catalyst_5474]

If it were any other solar company, I would share the same uncertainty. But with the balance sheet at 1.5 billion that they've managed to maintain plus the constant successful execution of past projects and deadlines, I feel quite confident about it. I've been dollar averaging into FSLR and at times it is hard spending and extra dollar or two here and there per share, but dollars will seem like nothing when this rises back to its Jan 2016 levels and on.

[MilesTeg]

Couple things:

I'm happy to see a fairly solid floor put in here in the low 30's. It's encouraging and hopefully points to everything already being priced in, as previously mentioned.
That happiness though, is underlined with a creeping uncertainty, at least in The near term.
I'm not sure if retail quite grasps how much of an undertaking this is, and how much a make or break situation it is.
To be fair, and I've never wavered on this sentiment, (although I've been wrong on general price moves many, many times) First Solar will do what they say they can do regarding S6, and working from that assumption, I am confident that they will remain a market leader in thin film solar.
It's just getting there that has me convinced we haven't seen a true bottom yet.
I hope I am wrong. I really do.

As far as the current administrations stance on solar, thus far we've seen much posturing, without much actual action, on a number of big issues. Whether it's just partisan politics, infighting, or general malcontent, whatever the administration wants to do, it clearly won't be easy.

[Catalyst_5474]

I agree that FSLR has a great history of delivering on their promises and I don't think this instance will be any different. I'm just surprised they haven't had any mention of Series 6 updates since November although I suppose it makes sense to just update us during the earnings call. I'd love to see Series 6 getting rolled out by 3rd or 4th quarter, if not sooner.

The Australia deals are a great example of how even though U.S politics have put a cloud over the company, solar is still booming and will continue to do so world wide.

The only concern I am left with is the possibility of Trump going through with the Paris Climate Treaty withdrawal that he mentioned early in the campaign. I'm not concerned about it in regards to FSLR's performance and bottom line but more so just the major hit the stock price could take from the sentiment that it would create.

[stockhorizon]

Not really. But I am expecting a positive experience during and after the earnings call later this month. I've said all along I think 1) the bad news is all priced in and then some 2) management will shortly begin to provide positive updates on Series 6 3) Series 6 will exceed expectations on efficiency 4) the timing provided by management for Series 6 was a worst case scenario 5) Trump will actually be GOOD for FSLR due to his tax policy including import taxes on China. I also think the timing for FSLR's revamp to Series 6 was extremely lucky and they will now look to expand capacity in the US based on Trump (it would have been Malasia or Mexico) and 6) I think two new deals in Australia are just the beginning 7)the long-term trend in solar is in-tact

I could go on and on.............

[Catalyst_5474]

Huh? Got some juicy gossip for me? :)

[stockhorizon]

Rumor Mill

[stockhorizon]

Rumor Mill

[Catalyst_5474]

Definitely good news. American investors get too tied up in the world of American news and politics because that is all they hear about. In light of the Trump administration, they forget that we only make up 5% of the world population and that there is another 95% of the world population that FSLR can sell to.

[stockhorizon]

Large new win for FSLR announced!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-solar-awarded-140mw-module-220000805.html

[Catalyst_5474]

I don't know if they could afford it. Their budget is 5 billion and that would equate to a max share price of $50. I don't know if the majority of investors would agree to that given the long term potential.

[stockhorizon]

Saudis ramping up for massive solar energy buying binge...FSLR will be front and center

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13973513/1/3-ways-for-investors-to-profit-from-a-solar-energy-rebound.html

[mcjodie]

Where is everyone else? I'm in too! Looking good

[itsgoingdownnnnn]

I AM IN 0.0014

[x1power]

Winner on enacting a Carbon Tax is both parties . . . Exxon gets higher gas price, government gets higher tax revenues, and environment is aided both by infrastructure build-out plus EVs and solar cells come together on charging stations, EV car roofs while
orders for household installs and business installs go up.

Quickest way and cheapest way to USA Energy Independence with good paying jobs that produce taxes into system is solar cells.

Lets watch how Mr. Business President's policies come forth?

[Catalyst_5474]

IMO, people are really overreacting to the Trump administration's effects on solar. Elon Musk is currently involved with Trump's business advisement team and we all know that Elon would love to see the entire world running on alternative energy so its not like solar is going to get kicked to the curb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/24/elon-musk-surprise-winner-under-trump.html

[stockhorizon]

First Solar Upgraded to "Strong Buy" at VETR

https://sportsperspectives.com/2017/01/11/vetr-inc-upgrades-first-solar-inc-fslr-to-strong-buy/

[PA Investor]

SH,

Thank you for the opinion on progress updates. I felt like MGMT was sandbagging the delivery timeline in the November meeting to provide themselves with a cushion so they can beat expectations (and to not tip their hand to CN competitors. You can't really keep secrets on crystaline side of things because there are so many players using similar tools.

I think FSLR definitely has a window of opportunity to shine with a really low cost / high efficiency product but that window is not as large as I previously thought it was. I think the need to prove they can make Series 6 in volume and at high efficiency as quickly as possible so they can start safely selling product on a foward basis and lock up enough demand to justify capacity expansions. They cannot remain a 3GW or even 5GW player in order to compete the Chinese giants. Those giants are now at 5-7 GW/year and my guess is that after some consolidation they are going to be 10+ GW and eventually even higher. FSLR needs a platform where they can realistically sell 7-10 GW/year or more and then they will be spreading their R&D over a much more reasonable level of business.

I think MGMT knows this clearly and knew that Series 4/5 was not the platform for that kind of expansion. There are benefits to being conservative but also risks. If they give up too much market share it will be harder to expand and keep up with the Chinese majors.

I know, one step at a time...

I also think that Mgmt should consider bringing in some strategic high profile partners / investors once they have a proven Series 6 product. There are countries with sovereign wealth funds that need to deploy capital and would like to be involved in clean energy.

[stockhorizon]

As I stated before...

I believe the management at FSLR has set the table for incremental positive progress updates on the Series 6 start-of-production and efficiency data. I also believe that these updates will commence shortly, which should have a positive impact on the stock.

GLTA

[x1power]

Shorts still in control due to daily Vol/stock price dropping.

Certainly next quarter might just be basically even as to gain, and suspect they will play up Vegas as example of what solar can do for a city.

Everyone is also watching and waiting to see how The Donald comes to terms with AT like solar. Elon Musk was at meeting with Sil-Valley Girls thus I expect TSLA might just get a Defense Contract or two (like Mil base Evs and solar cell installs?) . . . wish . . . wish. It would have been nice if Musk gently explained how solar can produce more jobs quicker and with faster USA Energy Independence and possess more off-grid emergency disconnect power.
Of course, it would not hurt to tell the master business personage that major businesses were installing solar as disaster scenario power systems for their stores. The Don probably has not figured out that solar windows and roofing tiles are IN vogue? <---got to keep up with the Twits and Jones? Just imagine Coal Miners making solar cells, etc. for their own roofs in a sited-nearby Factory.
Repo Man and all that. Golf Cats wondering what the shinning plates are on the Beer Base . . . the new Charles In Charge symbol?

[oxnous]

Chinese dumping has certainly helped.

[stockhorizon]

FSLR - Strong Buy of the Decade NOW!

Here's on more reason...

http://qz.com/871907/2016-was-the-year-solar-panels-finally-became-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-just-wait-for-2017/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

[stockhorizon]

Very Bullish on FSLR

Continuing my call from 11/17 - I believe this is still a great entry point ($35) for FSLR.

Trump's 35% tax shot-over-the-bow for products manufactured overseas and shipped into the country bodes extremely well for First Solar, which will manufacture the new Series 6 module for North American consumption in Ohio (and overseas consumption primarily in Malaysia). I predict that these modules, which will further extend First Solar's lead in efficiency and durability over the Chinese, will produce even higher margins than reported due to the tax (ie the Chinese will not be able to compete in the US, period).

I am also predicting normal positive updates from FSLR management over the next 6-12 months regarding the timing for production of the Series 6 modules, which I believe will begin to roll off the production line in Ohio much earlier than previously reported (I previously predicted full production by Q1 2018). I believe there is a strong possibility that these modules will also surprise on efficiency.

My 12-month target on FSLR is $55. GLTA

[MilesTeg]

Not a ton of faith in Q4 results.
I'm thinking the shorts are on to something.

[oxnous]

Short interest still rising

[squashjohn]

You think that continues to end of year? - lots of 'losses' this year to write off :-/..

[oxnous]

Still waiting to buy. Tax loss selling is really kicking in here.

[stockhorizon]

PA,

Great questions - you're obviously very knowledgeable about the solar market and FSLR.

I do not have any further insights to share or specific answers to your questions right now. I just believe management intentionally left a tremendous amount of slack in their guidance to allow for positive surprises along the way over the next 12 months.

GLTA

[x1power]

Thanks for reply, I think everyone got something from it, PA Investor.

Nice to know you think FSLR can survive on customers overseas going forward. Hope new POTUS sees the sense in promoting USA made products to overseas customers.

[PA Investor]

X1power,

FSLR is clearly near its 52 week low and certainly has the potential to sell off even more. The short interest (when last posted) showed a position of 14.5 million shares short as of October 31st. It is likely to be even higher at the moment. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/short-interest

In regards to FSLR's competitive position on an international basis there is very little that Trump can do to impact that. There is a world market price for solar panels in $/kwhr (delivered) and they are going to have to be competitive in order to earn the kinds of margins they would like to achieve. I do not believe that low cost 30% efficiency cells are going to be available "soon" as you describe. Cost per watt or per kwhr is the most important metric to focus on.

Without being an insider it is hard to know the real risk / challenge associated with the series 6 transition. The drop in ASP's and excess industry capacity additions along with the ITC extension created a tough year for 2017 any way you looked at it. I think FSLR is making the best of a bad situation and using existing facilities is a reasonable way to take out capital costs for the series 6 transition ($0.30/watt of capacity vs earlier estimates of $.40/watt of capacity). It is a bet the company project so I would imagine that everyone is very focused on making this a success. If it is a success and FSLR can actually deliver modules in 2018 with a cost/watt of ~21-22 cents they will be in a golden spot. They should have their medium voltage DC architecture available commercially by then as well so BOS costs will be even better.

[x1power]

Nice post, if I may also comment herein . . . I wonder if stock price is not very near its 52 week low range? Donny just very recently stated he will can Asian free trade proposed pact on his first day in office. I would hope the POTUS is just planning to start new bargaining position. If not, his military and energy policy heads should bring up the notion the solar cell are VERY USA favorable as quickest job source tech if jointly considered with military base installs and retraining the Virg. labor-intensive Coal job losses. Nuclear and Pipelines take forever to get going. USA will need more domestic energy independence from ME
present sources.

It is apparently soon to be possible to have over 30% cell efficiency marketable . . . could this mean series 6 is desperate
cost structuring way to challenge dawning new competitive cell efficiencies? I think that new stuff entails nanotech level carbon composite structuring and 3-D surrounding reflecting increase in cell outputs increase.