First Solar Inc (FSLR)

[MWM]

Very Unusual drop starting at noon today...

[$5.95akadawson-m]

It’s about time, too! I’ve been holding my breath for two long years.

[harry crumb]

What a run, in at 40 an holding long here!

[OldAIMGuy]

This A.M. triggered my next incremental sale on FSLR:



It's taken some work, but the holding is profitable overall. Trading around the core has added nicely to overall return while moderating some of the risk. It's nice to have some reserve of cash back in the account.

[aussiekevin]

There are definitely many whispers that that is an acquisition target.

[mdb1]

Oh for good ole days when it was over $300. 2008 anyone?

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks C,
My bracket (trading around a core position) is from around here up to about $60/sh. So, it sounds like my trades might sync up with the Argus range.

[conix]

Why One Analyst Sees First Solar Rising 30%


By Chris Lange December 4, 2018 1:05 pm EST


First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) shares slid on Tuesday despite the solar firm receiving a couple favorable upgrades from analysts. Even though the share price has dropped off recently, one firm believes that this stock could rise handily from here.

Argus upgraded First Solar to a Buy rating from Hold with a $60 price target, implying upside of 29% from the most recent closing price of $46.40. And on Monday, Goldman Sachs raised First Solar to a Neutral rating from Sell and raised its price target to $46 from $39.


Back in late October, the company reported third-quarter net sales of $676 million, up from $309 million in the second quarter, but down from $1.1 billion a year earlier. The sequential increase reflected ongoing construction at the California Flats project and the sale of the Willow Springs and Manildra projects. The company reported third-quarter earnings of $0.54 per share, compared to a loss of $0.46 per share in the second quarter and earnings of $1.95 per share in the third quarter of last year. The decline from last year reflected fewer solar projects and a decline in module prices.

Argus views First Solar as well positioned in the solar industry based on its positive cash flow, solid balance sheet and focus on cadmium telluride technology, which should provide a cost advantage relative to more commoditized technologies like polysilicon. In particular, First Solar’s technological investments have enabled the company to lower the cost of solar generation on a per-watt basis and to improve its conversion efficiency. They also have helped the company to expand its opportunity set of utility-scale projects.

Overall, Argus noted that the stock trades at 15.5 times its 2019 per-share earnings forecast, in the lower half of the historical average range of 4.5 to 37.7 and below the peer average of 24.9. Investors should expect First Solar’s financial results to be uneven on a quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year basis due to the timing of revenue recognition.

While First Solar has underperformed over the past three months, falling 13%, Argus believes that this pullback offers a favorable entry point.

Shares of First Solar were last seen down 2% at $45.44, in a 52-week range of $36.51 to $81.72. The consensus analyst price target is $65.92.

[OldAIMGuy]

Sounds like a good plan.

My motto is:

Buy from the Scared, Sell to the Greedy........

[oxnous]

I have done well by buying these tax loss selling candidates near the middle of December for a January bounce trade. FSLR is on my list.

[OldAIMGuy]

FSLR is sitting at about 15% of its 52 week price range and that $81 high water mark will put tax loss selling in the cards for many. I agree this stock and many others could be facing a lot of the same selling pressure.

[oxnous]

Tax loss selling could be a problem going into the end of the year.

[harry crumb]

Nice bounce up off bottom, great move if u added early today. $$$

[StockTrekker]

Heard a rumor FSLR was acquiring ABCE (Abco Energy) who just announced expansion into California.

Any one heard anything? Any whispers of an acquisition?

[Rookies1000]

Err..no. Cash value is ~$32 and book value is ~$48

[mdb1]

Good chance FSLR is going back to low $30s. Strange they had the technology to do 2-sided solar cells when they purchased their silicon technology company with efficiencies of 20%.
FSLR needs to get their cell efficiency up to mid 20% range. They seem to have abandoned this goal.

I think losses will continue for next year.

[oxnous]

FSLR is setting up for a trade, imo. RSI is low and a bottom appears to have been put in.

GLTA

[VERITAS77]

$75-85 Target.

[ITMS]

First Solar $FSLR Target Buy Level Revealed

Shares of First Solar (FSLR) fell again on Tuesday after China continued to fight back against U.S. tariffs. Let's not kid ourselves, the trade war has begun and it will be tit for tat going forward, ultimately hurting U.S. jobs and the economy. Having said that, expect solar stocks to remain weak in the coming days/weeks. First Solar should continue lower in the next month to a target of $48.00. Once there, expect a hardcore technical bounce back to $57.00. This is the technical level the best stock chart swing traders are eyeing for a buy.




Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi J4T, Re: Making FSLR work..............

I've been trading FSLR stocks around a core position since late in 2014.
The stock's moved around and is currently net "up" from the starting point.

CAGR for the Buy/Hold investor over the same time frame is 4.41%. Through
trading around the core, the results are CAGR = 8.14% for a nice
improvement. Here's what the trades look like in these histograms:



It's not been a lot of trading, but enough done at the right times to
improve the average cost/share and profitability. Overall, including the
cash reserves it's showing a profit of 42% right now. Buy/Hold would only
be up 21% right here.

I added 15% more shares to the position today and last sold 10% of shares
at the end of April at just over $80/share.

[joanne4trade]

FSLR trading signals predicted a sell zone and negative trend at the end of April, while it was in an upward trend. Today's dive by over 5% was related to an overweight stock, negative stock price as well as restrictions that are impacting the solar manufacturing industry. #BluSignals https://www.blusignalsystems.com/fslr-stock-not-in-sunny-cycle-heres-what-trading-signals-sensed/

[joanne4trade]

FSLR trading signals predicted a sell zone and negative trend at the end of April, while it was in an upward trend. Today's dive by over 5% was related to an overweight stock, negative stock price as well as restrictions that are impacting the solar manufacturing industry. #BluSignals

[oxnous]

No denying this trend

[DR_Money01]

Junior Mining Companies News Today Is Good For First Solar In More Then One Way
https://www.deerhorncapital.ca/news-media/news/2018/california-to-require-solar-panels-on-almost-all-new-homes-built-after-jan-1-2020

[OldAIMGuy]

Another day in the sun......



The cash reserve is now higher than at any time since starting in 2014. Total value including the dormant cash is up about 70% now while price/share has risen about 58%.

[harry crumb]

Sold out today, gl to those keeping this.

[conix]

US Solar Industry

https://www.ecowatch.com/solar-industry-us-tariffs-2543060790.html?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=0961946ee1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-0961946ee1-85937161

[BottomBounce]

Some of the key players in global Building-Integrated Photovoltaics market are Ascent Solar Technologies Inc $ASTI, Amari Austria GMBH, Belectric Holding GmbH, Dyesol Ltd, Cadcamation KMR SA, Fraunhofer ISE, $FSLR First Solar, Film Optics Ltd, ertex solartechnik GmbH, Power Film Inc, Hanergy Holding Group Limited, Beijing Ja Solar PV Technology Co. Ltd., BGT Bischoff Glastechnik AG, Sharp Solar, Onyx Solar Energy S.L, Sanyo, Pythagoras Solar, $TSL Trina Solar, $YGE Yingli Solar, Advanced Solar Power (Hangzhou) Co. Ltd., Konarka Technologies Inc, Wirtschaft Und Infrastruktur Gmbh & Co Planungs Kg, Wurth Solar GMBH & CO. KG and Kyocera Corporation.

[puravida19]

Whoa! broke support line on the top chart in Ibox. Three gaps to cover heading down.

[StockonBreakout]

Analysts expect Sunworks to get to the $2.67 mark in the near future, it has been up +20 since December. - https://stockonbreakout.com

[oxnous]

More competition--coming over to the US from China now.


https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=76581751

[$5.95akadawson-m]

Thank you for the summary!

[MilesTeg]

They want to be exempted even though they've been benefiting for the better part of a decade.

They've put a US expansion on hold due to this tariff costing them an extra nickel on CpW.

Here's an idea. Utilize the new tax policy and expand anyways in 2018 and write it off.

These guys are like children throwing a tantrum. It's pathetic.

First Solar wins regardless. Watch for US market share to climb at an accelerated rate.

[$5.95akadawson-m]

Where do you think Sunpower fits into this scenario?

[MilesTeg]

On the tariffs.......

I'm struggling to find another company that benefits more than First Solar from these actions.

Any company really.

The spin has been mostly negative, and there's reason for that.
Jobs will be lost, yes. Mostly on the installation side. Projects will get delayed or shelved altogether. It hurts the industry as whole.

For now.

The most important thing this tariff does is level a historically skewed playing field.

China, and most of the companies complaining about this tariff, have benefited immensely over the last five years from a market flooded with cheap, less effective, imported cells and modules.
C-Si can't hang with thin film PV in the long term. That's why China has been relentlessly dumping. To kill the thin film market in the US.

Well, that's over now.

First Solars tech has always proven more reliable long term.
The trade off is slightly lower conversion efficiency.
It's what has allowed First Solar to survive a volatile market.

Series 6 is a watershed moment for First Solar.
Combined with these tariffs and the lower corporate tax rate, it's safe to say First Solar is positioned quite nicely.

This is going higher. $100 is in play this year, and there was a time, not that long ago, that I never pictured saying that again.

All imo of course.

[conix]

Tariff on imported solar panels announced tonight. 30% tariffs

[AXNMAN]

$FSLR...I JUST NOTICED HOW WELL THE ROBOT HANDLED THIS TRADE = SEE THE ARROWS $64.20 TO $67.25

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQeDOftXUAA8shJ.jpg

[OldAIMGuy]

A good day for FSLR today.



Let 15% of shares go today to new owners. Still plenty left for the future.

[conix]

GOP Tax Bill may be problematic for wind and solar power providers

http://time.com/5042881/tax-reform-bill-solar-wind-power-renewable-energy/

[oxnous]

I would not short FSLR here. I would wait to buy FSLR after it fills that gap in the chart, though.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi MJ, Re: Cajunas.......

Today's trading looked like a low blow. Hope the day went well for you.

[Metal Jockey]

How's that short position working out for you?

[Metal Jockey]

How's that short position going for you?

[Metal Jockey]

Love when first and second quarter earnings are nice and all the milk toasts sell their stock before third quarter release. If you did that, no cajunas and probably should find something else to do instead of playing the market. Sorry, it had to be said!!!

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi SM, Re: + and - signs...........

Yep. Generally I'm adding or trimming in about 10% increments to the position. Minus signs indicate selling while plus signs are buys. The "cash" is shown in green while equity position is in red. So, you can see the correlation between changes in the cash reserve each time there's a trade. The lower graph is "stacked bar" so shows the sum of the cash and the equity value so the top of each bar is the total value for that week including then current cash.

It makes stock ownership more like "inventory control" as I maintain a core position all the time and just trim and back-fill. Think of it as running an "Equity Warehouse."

[TheFinalCD]

nice, are all the (-) places you sold, and (+) where you bought?

anyway nice trading congrat$

[OldAIMGuy]

Happy earnings surprise today. I managed to liberate 10% of the holding at a very nice price.



It's not been easy to stick with this holding during the dull times. However, averaging down is finally starting to pay off. Price/Share is up just 14% since starting this position. The account value thru trading is up 28% and share ownership is up 62%.

[Spicknspan]

FSLR could go either way. Seems like a tug of war

[tankworth]

What a ride this morning!
$FSLR

[HERMES8]

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Was Increased Rating To “Buy”

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) was increased rating by analysts at Deutsche Bank AG from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in an exploration note issued on Friday, Marketbeat Ratings reports. The analysts as of now has a $65.00 value objective on the solar cell producer's stock, up from their past value target of $50.00. Deutsche Bank AG's value target would show a potential upside of 28.84% from the company's past close.
http://www.stocksmarketnews.com/first-solar-inc-fslr-was-increased-rating-to-buy/