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MERRY CHRISTMAS to all and to all a GREAT GREEN YEAR.
I am undecided where my sell should be at? 35 would be at 10.91. I will sell there if things inch along. If they move quickly I will sell at 11.18 which will be 5%. All this can change with a report on low reserves on high than usual demand. GO PACKERS!!
Natural Gas Advances as Supplies Decline More Than Forecast Share Business
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures soared in New York to their highest price in almost a year after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles fell more than analysts estimated as lower temperatures boosted demand.
Inventories declined 207 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 11 to 3.566 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said in a report today. Analysts forecast a decline of 178 billion, based on the median of 23 estimates. The five- year average change for the week is a decline of 127 billion cubic feet.
“We’re getting a bit better demand and maybe supply just isn’t as gangbusters as some people are thinking,” said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary, who predicted a decline of 200 billion cubic feet.
Natural gas for January delivery rose 30.6 cents, or 5.6 percent, to $5.768 per million British thermal units at 2:55 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price since Jan. 7. Gas has gained 2.6 percent this year.
U.S. heating demand was 23 percent higher than normal in the week ended Dec. 12, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A decline in drilling in the U.S. is forecast to cut output in the coming year, according to the Energy Department. Production in the lower 48 states fell 2.2 percent in September from August as the number of rigs working dipped by more than half in the past year.
Shrinking Surplus
The withdrawal reduced the surplus compared with the five- year average to 433 billion cubic feet from 513 billion the previous week, according to the department.
“The biggest bearish factor against gas in the past year and a half has been the surplus,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.
A recovery in the U.S. economy is also helping to spur demand for gas, said King.
The rebound may extend into the first half as two reports today showed a strengthening economy. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose for the eighth month in a row. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region grew in December at the fastest pace in more than four years, a separate report showed.
The New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.9 percent, more than forecast, as the U.S. emerges from the worst recession since the 1930s.
Reviving Demand
A stronger economy would help to revive gas purchases from factories, steel mills and chemical plants, which together account for 29 percent of U.S. consumption. Power generation represents 29 percent of gas demand and residential use is 21 percent of total consumption.
Below-normal temperatures, which lifted demand last week, will cover the country from Chicago to New York and as far south as Texas in the next two weeks, according to Commodity Weather Group of Bethesda, Maryland. About 52 percent of U.S. households rely on natural gas for heat.
“In the short term, the withdrawal helps and keeps gas from going below $5,” said Scott Hanold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Minneapolis. “There’s a bit of bid under gas, though we have to watch because there’s a good El Nino in place, which typically isn’t good for the gas market.”
A “moderate-strength” El Nino will persist through spring, bringing an increased chance of above-normal temperatures in the Midwest in January, according to a monthly outlook today from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.
Warming Weather
Mild weather next month in Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota would limit demand for gas as a heating fuel, said Hanold. He expects next week’s supply report will show a smaller withdrawal than today. About 72 percent of households in the Midwest rely on natural gas for heat.
El Nino is a warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America. The phenomenon affects the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual weather patterns.
Wholesale natural gas prices at the benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, rose 8.16 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $5.6498 per million Btu, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gas futures volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 352,001 contracts as of 3:24 p.m., compared with a three-month daily average of 249,000. Volume totaled 289,945 yesterday. Open interest was 727,852 contracts, compared with the three-month average of 713,000. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 17, 2009 15:50 EST
AONE? FNM? PCX? CBI? ORBC? VLNC? NXST? MESA? SIRI? VG? ZHNE? BQI?NRGN? ENMD? EXXI?
WFMI? ALTI? HCBK? NYB?
12/17/2009 Sell 7,500.00 RAD $1.49 $11,165.76
+ $1331.00
Well, My sell is at 1.49 as of now. It is at 1.44, and I have no level two. Selling before noon.
I just watched the movies, "Food inc." , "The future of food" and "King Corn" . Talk about eye opening. GM corn and soy is scary, and now companies are talking about GM poultry, cattle, and fish. I cannot see how the USA can allow this. I am truly worried about the the out come this will have. The seed companies ( the 4 giants that patented 80% of all seeds) are looking to introduce a terminator gene into seeds, so they can only last for one planting then kill theirselves. The cross contamination will be horrific, throughout the world.
This president is as bad as the previous 4. With the seed companies running the USDA. And other executive branches. I was fed up with Big banks corrupting the financials, I had NO idea it was in agriculture too.
There is hope, "The corporate control of agriculture and the seed supply is meeting more and more resistance from the sustainable food movement that has risen up around the world. Food and agriculture have become central in discussions about climate change, sequestering carbon, health and the preservation of biological diversity."
http://www.foodincmovie.com/
http://www.kingcorn.net/
http://www.thefutureoffood.com/
RAD hold for earnings.e/m
patience, e/m
My patience is wearing thin!! What a shit range. Oh well. Rad could not hold the 20 day, and it is still in the pennant. Good things are it is a billion dollar company, another store just opened. No thought of bk, so the money is fairly safe. The bad part being I only wanted a week long swing play. Good parts of TA are the boli's are tighter than a frogs ass is water tight and 1.26ish is huge support. The Williams is approaching over sold, same with the RSI. Something has to give and soon!!! IMO. But Do I have the patience. I have seen and passed on several other plays now that would of rewarded this portfolio very well, and much better than stagnant monies. HMMMPFFF!!! I will sell on the next move up.
Dave has taken a break, and the others I presume also. Looking at there posts it has been a while. This recession is worse then most admit.
what happened to Dave and other "regulars" on this board???
RAD; A pennant has formed, link back to chart. And RAD has rode the 20 day down. If it breaks through the top of the pennant and the 20 day at 1.34, it could fly. This is a BIG IF. It needs alot of buys. I am putting my sell at 1.53, reason being the 50 day is 1.55 and there is a large sell on level two at 1.54. The ask is thinning. I always reserve the right to change my sell, I have errands to run today, so I will check periodically. I may sell today if it fails and goes red. up 3 percent already.
RAD is looking to bounce off of 1.24. That is support. I am betting it moves up after that.
Well technically it hit the 20 day and failed to push through. Now it is a waiting game. There is no reason for this to fall much further. We could of sold at 1.39 with a 4% gain. Hind sight being 20/20 ok, but it should brake that point. Next time around I'll see what I'll do but, still holding. I may put a stop at 1.10 just in case.
still in RAD, swinging in the right direction. Should be in the 1.40's soon. imo
7,500 $1.39 +$0.04 =$10,425.00
todays gains= $300.00 2.96%
up $591.05 total
RAD finished at hod. No complaints. 1.44 will be 10%, 1.40 will be 5% gains. LCC is also looking good!!
RAD short info
Rite Aid
$ 1.34
RAD
0.02
Short Interest (Shares Short)
37,320,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
3.4
Short Percent of Float
5.99 %
Short Interest - Prior
28,653,000
Short % Increase / Decrease
30.25 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™
33
% From 52-Wk High ($ 2.35 )
-75.37 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 0.20 )
85.07 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 1.39 )
-3.73 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 1.57 )
-17.16 %
Price % Change (52-Week)
164.00 %
Shares Float
623,260,000
Total Shares Outstanding
888,090,443
% Owned by Insiders
40.28 %
% Owned by Institutions
23.70 %
Market Cap.
$ 1,190,041,194
Trading Volume - Today
3,231,979
Trading Volume - Average
10,946,600
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average
29.52 %
Earnings Per Share
-3.27
PE Ratio
Record Date
2009-OctB
Sector
Services
Industry
Drug Stores
Exchange
NY
Yes it looks like it. i am going for a couple swing trades. My time has been taken up during trading hours for a couple days. So no day trades. Speaking of which. To the GYM. c-ya-later. Good luck on RIMM. Watching PCX and UXG for re-entry points next week.
I'm also eyeballing it, but RIMM has been fun so far today.....
in RAD 11/06/2009 Buy 7,500.0000
RAD RITE AID CORPORATION $1.31000 =$9,833.95
This will be a swing trade.
Alright I am starting something new, kinda. Taking ten grand and going to see what I can make of it.
Check this quote from Christina Romer:
“Data released today by the Commerce Department show that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of the year. This is in stark contrast to the decline of 6.4 percent annual rate just two quarters ago. Indeed, the two-quarter swing in the rate of growth of 9.9 percentage points was the largest since 1980. Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter. This suggests that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter.”
That means without our tax dollars going into cash for clunkers and the housing we would have no growth. Well those programs are over, what next? HMMMMMMMMMMMmm WAKE UP!!!!!
Out NMGC with a 2 bagger. Out PCX with a 8% loss, in AEMD and UXG. stop losses in place. Watching FAZ and VXX.
NMGC a 2 bagger for me so far. Holding AEMD on this dip. PCX is FLYING on GREAT earnings. Going to 17 on this cycle, I am hoping. AEMD down on 120,000 volume. I think/hope it is a walk down by the mm's. Took 2 million yesterday to get up.
AEMD will be a buck soon, NMGC up 42% from alert I got in and am up 30%, but only a partial fill. I am not chasing at this time.
Da Bears still suck, The Pack is mediocre (bite my tongue). The Vikings had a reality check. Indy Looks great and the Pats are past warming up, getting hot.
AEMD up 50% from alert. More news this week. I would like .80
NMGC is my next Pinksheet, I did some dd that I aam not posting at this time. But most likely will later.
hint
WGAT
DDDC
in PCX at 12 and another order put in at 11.77, Earnings tuesday. AEMD with a great day up 25%. Two confrences next week with news. My target like many others is a buck. I may sell half before that to ride free shares and try to flip those, not my base. PCX I am hoping for 14 near term some call for 17-20 with winter here.
In AEMD a couple days ago. Long hold. 10k shares.
PCX coming to play, look how it bounced off the MA50 the last two dips. This will be fun.
MM's screwed me on GLG, they ran it down more than a buck in two days and are now letting it go. FECK them. I shall return!!
Well my stops hit on GLG. I am guessing a technical fail. I have no other reason for the fall. No News, No filings. I am at a loss. I will look for bottom and try to play the pinch.
Loaded up more GLG at 3.63. e/m
My picks this week:
===================
KC + 6 1/2
Tex + 5
Cleve + 14
Vikes - 3
Rams + 10
NO - 3
TB + 3 1/2
Lions + 13 1/2
Philly - 14
Seat - 3
Bills + 10
Pats - 10
Atl - 3
Denver + 4 ===> 44 points
Federal deficit hits all-time high $1.42 trillion
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091016/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_deficit_danger
AFP/File – The US national debt clock, pictured in New York in July, 2009, shows the federal deficit topping $1 … By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writer – 24 mins ago
WASHINGTON – The federal budget
deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion as the recession caused tax revenues to plunge while the government was spending massive amounts to stabilize the financial system and jump-start the economy.
The imbalance for the budget year ended Sept. 30, more than tripled last year's record. The Obama administration projects deficits will total $9.1 trillion over the next decade unless corrective action is taken.
As a portion of the economy, the budget deficit stood at 10 percent, the highest since World War II, according to government data released Friday.
President Barack Obama has pledged to reduce the deficit once the Great Recession ends and the unemployment rate starts falling. But economists worry the government lacks the will to make the hard political choices to cut spending and raise taxes to get control of the imbalances.
For 2009, the government collected $2.10 trillion in revenues, a 16.6 percent drop from 2008. The plunge reflected declining income tax collections as millions of Americans lost their jobs or saw their wages cut. Corporate taxes also plummeted as the recession squeezed companies' profit margins.
Government spending last year jumped to $3.52 trillion, up 18.2 percent over 2008. The $700 billion financial bailout fund and increased spending and tax relief from the $787 billion economic stimulus program that Obama pushed through Congress in February drove the increase.
For September, a month when the government usually records surpluses, the deficit totaled $46.6 billion. That's a sharp contrast to the $45.7 billion surplus in September 2008, the last time the government's books were in the black.
In issuing the final budget figures, top administration officials said the president was determined to get control of the deficits in coming years.
"It was critical that we acted to bring the economy back from the brink earlier this year," White House budget director Peter Orszag said in a statement. "The president recognizes that we need to put the nation back on a fiscally sustainable path."
Failure to curb runaway deficits could trigger a financial train wreck that would push interest rates and inflation higher, and send the dollar crashing if foreigners suddenly started dumping their holdings of Treasury securities.
None of those problems are evident now as the worst recession since the 1930s has depressed borrowing by consumers and businesses, giving the government a break on the interest it paid this year on the record debt. Net interest payments actually fell by about $10 billion in 2009 from 2008.
But economists worry investors will grow fearful of the nation's ability to repay all the debt unless the administration and Congress begin developing credible plans to deal with the deficit problem once the recession has ended and unemployment has begun to come down
Thank you. I have rode the TGC pony many times in the past. Something I have learned the hard way is TGC is a very volatile stock.... up one day..... back to .50 the next, so I always take the 10% or better. I know I will always get another shot at a good entry. Good luck with her.....I hope you make a killing!
Thanks. I am hoping for news or a filing soon here. If not By tomorrow close, I do not think I want to hold over the weekend. BIATCH of a decision. Do they file after hours with news or before?
nothing like selling when it is starting to break out!
TGC..
not a cut, just a curiosity.
good luck! really happy you made 'some' monies.
Keith
Sold KOG and TGC... weeeeee!
May have sold too soon, but hard to turn down sure $$$$$.... greed monkey and I fight frequently. lol
Just gonna ride the momo crowd unless earth shattering news hits.
you have a target, or playing it by ear????
Hope it works out for us. GLTY
bought some LEHJQ, let's see what happens.....
RBY - Pullback on temporary gold price decline, should move hard north again next week.
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Welcome to Firemandave and friends stock picks. All stock plays are welcome here although we are a savvy group playing mostly NYSE,NASDAQ and AMEX plays. The occasional OTCBB or even OTC is sometimes played by this savvy group of traders, however, we never buy the story behind the play.
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