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$AAPL Thoughts
Support appears to be $122 and resistance around $129 and $133.50. A wedge pattern is developing, hopefully a rising wedge but need more time for pattern development. The indicators are sell but the rising CCI makes me think the rising wedge will develop equally a pps bounce next week.
$KO had unusual Put volume 3/30/15. It appears 26k Put option contracts were sold in the 6/19/15 expy and then new ones were written in the 4/17/15 expy for the $36 strike.
I reported in unusual Call volume two weeks ago. The chart is indicating sell still but trading has been sideways the past two weeks.
Janet Yellen's 3/27/15 speech quick summary:
1) Rate increase sometime in 2015 but not soon.
2) Gradual approach to raising rates.
3) Policy lags so action is needed for the economy before policy is complete
4) Road blocks for the economy still exist, such as wage growth and core consumer prices, and the economy is still weaker than expected.
5) Policy of rate change will follow evolving economic conditions.
Read the full speech here.
Chart Patterns
Take Note - For future reference - patterns need confirmation. Just because a pattern forms it does not guarantee a reversal. Candlesticks and other chart patterns are an early warning system that give a chartist a competitive edge.
Part 1 #SPY long-term perspective.
Most don't realize that SPY is an ETF that has diversified into the top tickers of the S&P 500 and has one of the highest daily option volume. I've attached a 20-year monthly and a 6-month daily perspective chart to show how chart analysis can provide insight into the long-term trend of the SPY and its recent short-term volatility. Between 2011 to now the SPY has been in a steep upward price channel. This is why many #wallstreet experts feel the market is ready for a correction similar to the pps drop in 2008.
Note the really high MACD and its about to fall line from the MA. The ADX line is showing signs of faltering with a slow downtrending +DM as well. Not a positive sign of a market crash yet as CCI is still trending above 100.
https://instagram.com/p/0ycK2rq-_C/
#TSLA was around the $20s when a friend came to me and started talking about his thoughts that it was going to jump to the $100s. At the time I thought he had some strong points but didn't invest. A month later TSLA's pps took off as the main media reported on the company's successes.
I came across a stockmarket cycle and plotted the info on today's chart analysis for TSLA. Can you guess what comes next in the cycle? Let me give some hints..."back to normal," anxiety, denial (again), panic, capitulation...
$TSLA has been in a downward price channel the past few months. Puts look attractive for 3/30/15 as the candles are about to touch the lower BB. Keep an eye on CCI for an uptrend from the oversold area its in currently. TSLA's chart shows pps bounces when the lower BB is touched historically.
https://instagram.com/p/0zzp_jq-3M/
Leadership ideas
It takes work to trade with consistent gains. You can follow the most popular traders and still fail to make consistent gains. I can tell you to trade $SPY Calls last Friday, 3/27/15, around 2pm but that doesn't mean:
1) $SPY Calls will bounce on Monday, 3/16/15.
2) The right strike was entered to take advantage of a gain before Call expiration.
3) The right expiration was chosen should an uptrend take too long or volatility ensues eating up a particular Calls gains over time.
4) The entry price of the Call options is sufficient enough to garner a gain before expiration.
5) That there's enough time for a trader to watch the charts and quotes constantly for that right moment to profit take.
6) Some economic event or news won't make the market fall.
Many tell me they think I'm the leader of a chat room or board/forum I create. I may be the organizer, and at times motivator, but I want you all to become you're own trading leader.
How do you become a trading leader? There are many resources and articles on the topic of leadership, and though there are some guidelines that can be followed it always comes down to the leader IMO.
Here's a rough guideline I think about when trying to be my own trading leader:
1) Articulate a vision: Mine is to have a million $ in 5 years.
2) Think and Act strategically: Have a trading plan and strategy that you understand. How will your trading effect others in your life?
3) Honor the room: Respect and value other traders talents and efforts.
4) Take charge: You can do the research and make suggestions when seasoned traders are absent.
5) Act decisively: Having a trading plan and strategy should aid a trader in avoiding emotional trades. Only you can make your trade for yourself.
6) Communicate persuasively: Have a common language for communicating ticker suggestions and research. "Buy AAPL Calls" is not enough.
7) Motivate self and others: When a trader is motivated and passionate about trading it spills upon others that come in contact. You may feel motivating others isn't important but there will come a time when the realization is made that trading alone doesn't help one grow.
8) Embrace the front lines: All traders in a group need to participate and communicate research and suggestions. Analysis needs to be debated. Concerns need to be discussed and suggestions for the way ahead made known.
9) Build leadership in others: Blind followers don't make good traders. I just explained above why. Having a team of trading leaders is much more effective and efficient than one leader and the rest followers. Get enough time in trading groups and then let me know your thoughts.
10) Manage relations: Being kind and helpful to others goes a long away to building future trust and interactions.
11) Identify personal implications: There comes a time when a group of trading leaders realizes trading is more than just about themselves. When one trader in the group fails what dies that say about the group? Cut off the failure or help lessons be learned and stronger traders emerge?
12) Convey character: Being transparent about trades is my first step to showing my character. I know that my research, analysis, and trading suggestions effects others and I need to communicate my strategy, ideas, research, and analysis so that everyone understands so trading leaders can be made. I expect integrity and honesty from myself and all I trade with.
13) Dampen over-optimism: Are you prepared for losses? No trader trades with 100% winning trades. A 70% winning record may even be tough to accomplish. Losses are ways for us to learn and become better traders.
14) Build a diverse top team: Discuss trading talents and skills. It will help others identify strengths and weaknesses whole building a stronger trading team.
15) Place common interest first: The goal of trading is obtaining consistent gains. This goal may be different from others in the trading team. You may just want some spare cash. Another trading friend may want less trading risk. The group has to realize what each trader's goals are and then build a trading environment that helps everyone.
Here are my daily thoughts when trading and interacting with trading friends:
1) Network and participate with other traders.
2) Ask questions constantly.
3) Learn from my trading mistakes.
4) Test trading strategies before putting real $ on trades.
5) Absorb trading knowledge and perspectives
I've been lucky to meet a few trading friends who I can still chat with on a daily basis. Thank you guys :). My goal goes beyond my $1 million goal. I want to help others become traders who can trade holistically with consistent gains. Participating, asking questions, sharing experiences, discussing what works and what doesn't, and many other trading related topics is hard work. Working together helps relieve some burdens.
$MHYS is a pink current making SEC filings. It traded at $.0001 3/27/15 and has been on a downtrend as shares are entering the market from issuances. MHYS is a movie producer and we're awaiting release.
iHub posters on the MHYS board are discussing a possible reverse split. This pink current is a lotto possibility due to being at $.0001 and possible reverse split that would possibly give a quick pps pop but then harm shareholder value.
Earnings Releases 3/30-4/3/15 http://instagram.com/p/0zrIw_K-5O/
Best option volume on the list:
$KMX
$MU
$COCP is a pharmaceutical company incorporated in DE as an OTCQB status. It's working on antiviral research and has had quite a bit of management and share structure news. The a/s is to be raised to 800m from 200m and many insiders have been purchasing shares as evidenced from the Form 4s. A new CEO took the helm recently and the pps has been slowly moving up. A few shares and warrants have been issued at $.40 as well.
The trading volume has been generally under a million shares but as high as 5m at times. No big signs of dilution.
Keep this on the rare OTC penny uptrend radar.
$JIVE had unusual Put option volume 3/27/15 for 5/15/15 $5 expys. Why was $1.4m-$2.1m used for 70,000 Put sells the past week? Is this $5 ticker headed for an uptrend soon?
http://instagram.com/p/0wsJ4xq-y9/
Long-term stock ideas for tucking away gains into a lower risk trading vehicle.
$ULTA beauty care
$MNST energy drinks
$LUV airlines
$HAIN food processing
$MKTX financial services
$GME with an ER miss after hours 3/26/15. Future outlook isn't much better with 3% closing of stores expected.
http://instagram.com/p/0u0lbaq-yS/
Chart showed sell two days before ER.
$MDCN has plenty of iHub board buzz about a priority deal to be announced. The board posters state no dilution (lol).
The chart shows a three candle up after a long downtrend. The volume has spiked to 100m-300m the past few days indicating dilution. Nonetheless, there may be uptrend left if a PR results.
$THCZ PC with MMJ ties. Plenty of company PRs about its new drink.
The pps has had three legs up with increasing volume on each leg. The chart shows overbought currently. Conpany news and updates have had a strong effect on creating buyer momo.
ClayTrader video: $THCZ video chart
OTCQBs with decent uptrends the past month:
$ADMD
$BTCS
$ITKG
$IZEA
$NVIV
Watch the chart for continued fire versus fizzle.
$USO uptrend should continue Fri 3/27/15. Calls have been gaining 50-100% daily this week. Not sure about the mid-term trend yet.
Chart analysis: http://instagram.com/p/0tJ1RSq-28/
Fire Eaters Guide
Fire Eaters are high risk stock and option traders who sculpt fires for bountiful gains lest they be burned by losses.
1) Trade no more than 20% of account value per trade. We want big fires but not be consumed.
2) Sell at 20% loss unless chart shows estimated fire trend still possible.
3) Trade option expiration at least 2 weeks out. Monthly expys are goal. Weekly expys are for advanced fire eaters.
4) Trade based on technical analysis of overbought or oversold. Earnings strategy trade before and/or after ER as holding through ER is to be an uncontrolled fire.
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