[krab]

Fence, I have no idea what your talking about. Please, keep it simple !!

[Golfbum22]

Can you or G please retweet/X him back that FHFA is illegally funded as well?

It would be much appreciated

thank you both for great posts!

go fnf

[JSmith5]

Did Ackman assume the shares were paying dividends in his 2014 projection?

It doesn't look like it other than the $2B Juniors would get. The upper end of the projection was based on total GSE income of $29B which he projected would occur about 7 years out or so. So he's not too far off and could not foresee Covid, etc. It was all based on 9B total shares for the common.

Nats

[Clark6290]

I hope you post this fantasy to make yourself feel good about your shares. Well dude, wake up because that is completely insane forecast

[Clark6290]

Noted!

[stink stack]

0+0=0
LOL

[Guido2]

1+1=2

[mrfence]

According to Tim Pagliara, the discussion about writing down the Senior PREF and Warrants as a matter of fairness and ethics is underway by Trump's team. That's REALITY.

[mrfence]

So 23 to 47 pps with warrants exercised is Ackman's 2014 projection. Then multiply by 5 if warrants are written down = 115 to 235 pps. Then adjust for 2024 revenues as opposed to 2014 revenues and multiply × 2 = 230 to 470 pps. Then I suppose my 520 pps projection is off by 50 but I still believe the pps would tap that just before dividends paid out. Did Ackman assume the shares were paying dividends in his 2014 projection?

[mrfence]

https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1867400925473910866

[mrfence]

Elon Musk, head of DOGE, is intensely driven and will leave no stone unturned. For insight in to the man, watch.

[2latefortears]

Looking forward to it!

[mrfence]

CBO Deep State will be replaced. Can't run a buisness with a corrupt accounting department running it's own agenda. The new Sheriff in town is nobody's fool.

[RickNagra]

I suspect she and her husband will be attending our Vegas party.

https://x.com/ricknagra/status/1867995337698464001?s=46&t=xLP2LlWgJrEMUZZ7Fum-nA

[2latefortears]

Stevie Wonder can see the abuse of the GSE's.

[RickNagra]

https://x.com/ricknagra/status/1868015162491564232?s=46&t=xLP2LlWgJrEMUZZ7Fum-nA

[trunkmonk]

I wonder if DOGE gonna look at all involved and find abuse, I think there are so many snakes in the brush it will be historical. GSE release is just the beginning. Dey all scared now

[2latefortears]

Considering who the presidents have been during the time he's owned shares, is it any wonder?

[Donotunderstand]

socialism ?

please define and then where you see such socialism

where do i see Socialism

Social Security
Medicare
Community Funded tax supported local K-12 education
Socialism
Unemployment insurance

And i see no real need to mess with those - other than to collect more money from the top 10% for medicare and social (and yes top 10% pay 50% of income tax and top 20% pay 80% ---- but that is the way it has to be (that is where the money is !!) ---- there are still tons of left on the table money for the top 1-5% ------- but that AT BEST solves say half our deficit problem
%

[2latefortears]

Amazing how the CBO thinks the Treasury could "benefit" from a recap of the GSE's. The Treasury has already been repaid handsomely. I wonder if one of the scenarios writes down the SPS, warrants repurchased for $1, and the GSE's continue building capital organically for a few more years? Hmmmm, I wonder?

[Donotunderstand]

dumb and dumber

SIPC is for brokerages and does not cover MM - which are mutual funds

[Donotunderstand]

While they - Musk and a bunch - are crazy and have no idea what is logical or not

They never said they would get rid of the insurance --- but the agency as stand alone --- and put the work it does i inside Treasury

He has no memory or knowledge of the Depression and say 2008 - both times BANKS were shit and only the GOV saved us

Less regulation of banks is suicide

hey seems everyone wants more regulation and instruction to insurance carriers but we trust banks

idiotic

[Clark6290]

Thanks for posting actual news, unlike fantasy pps predictions. Certain the warrant will be exercised prior to expiration. Last, all these misinformation campaigns regarding the warrants have already been paid is fantasy, the government which stole all the company's money doesn't care.

Perhaps $15 max pps, I will take it.

[JSmith5]

Right - but the CBO report is irrelevant to recap. I believe that they simply can't execute the exit without writing off the seniors. Otherwise I would not be investing here.

Nats

[Wingsjr]

Just be aware that there isn’t a single scenario in the CBO report that 47 has to follow. 😎🇺🇸

[KeyKey]

Shouldn't the share price have gone up with the CBO-Letter on Friday ?
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-12/60810-GSEs.pdf

[JOoa0ky]

Just be aware that there isn't a single scenario in the CBO report where the seniors get written off.

[Guido2]

I doubt it. 😂

[JSmith5]

Pershing Square has accumulated some 115 million shares and no CLOUT whatsoever came with that large position. Ackman got no more respect from the fraudsters than did the shareholder with 100 shares.

Until we get released, having 115 million shares of FNMA is like saying you own the biggest house in Hyattsville - like - so what.
The key is whether some or all of the seniors are going to be converted as part of the release. I am betting (literally) that they will be erased. If not, after we get released, it will still be like saying you own the biggest house in Hyattsville and not enough left over to pay the property taxes.

Just like a bet on the GSEs overall was based on a DJT win, the bet on the commons is all about the Seniors.

Nats

[jog49]

Pershing Square has accumulated some 115 million shares and no CLOUT whatsoever came with that large position. Ackman got no more respect from the fraudsters than did the shareholder with 100 shares.
Our adversary must be Godzilla.

[jog49]

We can only wish that was a true photo!

[JSmith5]

We may be about to cross the FNMA Mendoza Line

I figure if Ackman's average of $2.29 per share of FNMA is good enough for him, its good enough for me. I remembered his price target was from about $25-50 a share.
I wanted to see how he came up with it, so I went back and looked at the slide presentation he gave at the Ira Sohn Conference on May 5, 2014, entitled "It's Time to get off our Fannie".
His price target was from $23 to $47, based on a PE of 14-16 and assumed exercise of the warrants. Also, his predictions of earnings going forward from then until now look like he may know what he's talking about. So I may get off my fanny if we cross the Mendoza line and buy more commons.

Nats

[Guido2]

Just makes me sigh. Howard and others with the knowledge and clout prefer to promote the exercise of warrants instead of fighting the entire conservatorship.

[Rodney5]

Question, no one challenged Paulson’s action why? Someone please explain.

Bold statement by Mr Howard and the very next paragraph he suggests not to challenge Paulson’s action. Hello??

Mr Howard Quote: “I’ll start with a reminder that when the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) was signed into law on July 30, 2008, it specified twelve circumstances under which Fannie or Freddie could be placed into conservatorship. Neither company met any of them when Secretary Paulson decided he wanted to do it anyway, and in his book he said he relied on “the awesome power of the government” to get it done. No one challenged his action.

I’m not suggesting anything like that to get the companies OUT of conservatorship,” End of quote

Comments section: https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2024/12/09/release-2-0/#comments

[Guido2]

Agree. But the deal shouldn't be to benefit Treasury another single penny unless it's a fee for explicit guarantee.

I can foresee a deal to pay the junior preferred missed dividends during profitable quarters. But only if Treasury first refunds Fannie and Freddie the overpayments.

[FOFreddie]

Free the GSEs - keep the ERCF at 3% and work out a deal with shareholders to share the $ 521 bn equity value per the CBO Update.

[FOFreddie]

Thanks Guido

As you may remember this is the legal argument for turning out the lights at the CFPB and possibly the FHFA. The 5th Circuit ultimately took a middle road if I remember correctly but if litigated the DJT Administration would have a good case before SCOTUS. DJT could just veto funding potentially?

https://www.manatt.com/insights/newsletters/financial-services-law/lights-out-fifth-circuit-finds-cfpbs-funding-mech

[Guido2]

https://x.com/nicosintichakis/status/1867780085207433393