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You’ve pumped this bull 💩 for years. I can tell you with 100% certainty, common shareholders will get very rich off FnF. We will see 80/share minimum. If they try to screw us shareholders, there will be no second offering or reoffering because we will sue and nothing will happen for another 15 years. The SCOTUS already hinted that a takings case would be won by us if brought to the SCOTUS.
11 hours until opening bell...Are You Ready?
i might have to open another bank account
to hold it all
"Existing common shareholders do not own the companies at all. They have no economic rights and no voting rights. Nothing."
If you want to make an extreme click-bait statement, sure.
But as usual, you state facts yet drill down to a single conclusion that only time will tell if it's true. We are still shareholders. Shareholders have the rights associated with the Shareholder agreement. These rights do not dissolve suddenly in 2012 because of a contract between two government entities that violates the fair dealing with Shareholders. These rights travel with the shares. This is backed by the Berkley verdict.
The economic and voting rights are temporarily suspended during conservatorship. That is why it is a Conservatorship and not Receivership. Dilution of those rights is possible as part of the emergence from Conservatorship. In fact, Treasury could wipe all of the Common and JPS value based on their LP amounts. It's also possible they don't wipe 100% of the value of the companies. And no - the amount of equity Treasury took from AIG has zero bearing on what they may take from the GSEs.
Furthermore, FHFA (control) and Treasury (ownership) fall under the Executive Branch. As such, the control and ownership can be altered based on political winds of who is in charge of the Executive branch at any time. It is possible the leader of the free world will abscond with the value of 2 publicly traded private entities worth billions of dollars. It's also possible the leader of the free world will believe in the 5th Amendment. We may see a concept similar to Tyler v. Hennepin County, where the GSEs would be seen as obligated to render unto Caesar what is Caesar's, but no more. The resolution of Conservatorship may include NOT further violating the covenant of good faith and fair dealing with Shareholders. IMO, this would be the smarter resolution.
It is completely unnecessary for Treasury to liquidate the GSEs in order for them to function again or to be rehabilitated. There is no need for a government windfall to make Caesar whole. So while I agree with you that it is possible Treasury conversion wipes common shareholders out completely, I also see other possibilities. If you don't see those possibilities, that's on you and I'm sure you will invest accordingly.
if Fart noise says it, it must be true
KThomp, you appear to have a solid, in depth understanding of FnF history as it pertains to FHFA and Treasury.
I enjoy reading your posts, but I have no idea on how you see the conservatorship ending. How do you see the preferreds and commons doing? I realize there are numerous possible outcomes, but I'm curious what you think.
They are not here to make money
They’re just here to argue
The Conservatorship and it's administration REEK with CORRUPTION
Page 47 of Fannie Mae's 2024 Q1 10-Q form shows that they have a shortfall of $156B to the Adjusted Total Capital requirement of $106B. 25% of the $82B buffer adds another $21B to give the total shortfall to being able to pay dividends: $177B.
$121B of that could be made up in an instant if Treasury decides to cancel the seniors
and it could happen - the GOV could cancel the LP value of the SP equity
if done - then the shortfall is 177 minus 121 or 56Billion
Worth hoping and waiting for
Good governments don’t put their most profitable corporations in fraudulent “temporary” conservatorships and then swindle their equity for pet projects not funded by Congress.
— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) May 1, 2024
FREE FANNIE!
FREE FREDDIE! https://t.co/k0pI6bY97h
but is it on the TREASURY balance sheet ? and if yes - how does it show --- as the SP value or ?
the LP is not and never was repayable.
F and F will likely not have the money - but why is the LP (a # defined to rep the SP equity value) not callable ?
Glad you were able to make a profit. :)
Curious - Do you have a re-entry point in mind if the JPS come back down?
I do hope so !!!!!!
yet - the LP sits out there --- ?
I saved this to read slowly
Thank you - solid explanation
Is there any other channels on AM?
Lulevan, I've enjoyed your perspective on this morass over the years.
Good luck to you sir; I hope you'll continue to linger around.
Yep, that's why there were recent jokes about 5%. As soon as 4% is achieved (which is way out there) the government will then move the goalposts to 5% . . . so on and so forth........
One man's noise is another man's music. Don't like it, change the station.
Calabria's position is clear, and he is the author of the book. But last I checked, he speaks from FHFA position not any official Treasury position. You repeating "Treasury thinks it's illegal" is a highly inaccurate and liberal use of a book quote. There may be a PERSON or PEOPLE at Treasury who thought that and may have stated such to Calabria. However, someone thinking it does NOT make it true that it is in fact illegal. You keep acting as if it is because it's in a book.
I know you can follow this train of thought, you simply refuse to.
"Calabria repeated his preference for a senior-to-common cramdown in this article, so if you're referring specifically to that then the evidence is still on my side."
And how exactly does that relate to what "Treasury thinks?"
-------------------------
Treasury Thinks ™
- Copyright KThomp 2023
"Are you really basing part of your common investment thesis on the idea that someone, someday, might bring a lawsuit and that said lawsuit would succeed in such a way as to make the common shares worth appreciably more?"
No, I'm just conversating and speculating what could happen.
"The 2012 NWS already removed all shareholder economic rights in the future by making it impossible for FnF to ever build capital"
And there will soon be a ratified 2023 decision that says Shareholders do have a right to reap in the benefits of the company profits as per the shareholder agreement. What's your point?
"Does that mean if a senior-to-common exchange happens you think it will be too late for anything to be done about it? The same logic would apply to warrant exercise."
Yes, although this doesn't mean lawsuit/s won't be filed after the fact. They just have a near-zero chance of success. What are they waiting for? I don't know, I don't speak for "they".
"they would have to take a $200B writedown of asset value, thereby increasing the national debt by that amount"
Yes, but how did the rogue assets get on the books to begin with? It's kind of like the DTAs, it's all just bookkeeping entries and where they are entered. This is different than actual or future cash flows. There is no tangible taxpayer money lost by halting the future pillage of privately owned companies. It's not their (future) money to lose. It sits there as an accounting entry based on the ongoing conservatorship and resulting dividends.
The money recovered from the initial draws/debits has already been entered on Treasury's books and already exceeded the draws. Unfortunately, it was not used to write down the assets because they built the contract in a way that prevented that logical return of capital. But it was actual cash received by Treasury. A write-down could rectify the accounting to prevent a government windfall - 300bn already received, plus another 300bn to retire the SPS? Just as easily as the conservatorship started with government policy, it can just as easily end. This is mentioned in the footnotes of the report: "Estimated senior preferred values and future draw amounts will depend on numerous factors that are difficult to predict including, but not limited to, changes in government policy with respect to the GSEs". The amounts CAN be altered with a pen swipe.
While it's possible the 300+bn worth of SPS gets converted, it's also possible it's less than that. Just my opinion and speculation, so no - I will not share a calculation nor will I file a prospective lawsuit on behalf of "they" in case you were going to ask.
Didn't Cat Man set it at 4%? Something like that anyway, I thought.
They can but in the end it doesn't matter. This, literally, takes an act of congress to get out of jail.
Freddie closes up 4 cents to $1.40 on 1.2M shares
and pulled up off her low of $1.36
Fannie closes up 5 cents to $1.52 on 2.1M shares
and pulled off low of $1.45
GREAT DAY
can you or someone please post the info on both fnma and fmcc earnings per share?
TIA
"So how much capital do they need before they can start dividend even minimum?"
Apparently all the money currently on the face of the Earth!
"Freddie made .52 more per share than Fannie! This is why the majority of my shares are in Freddie. I still keep 18 percent of my shares in Fannie. GLTA!!"
Doesn't really matter because Uncle Sugar says the closest you will ever get to that profit is in the report you read!
"let's get back to what's important: "estimating the future common share price. What is your expected value calculation? You said that you have run many scenarios so it shouldn't be difficult to post their output."
As I've said multiple times... I've already given you all the info I care to share. If you can reverse engineer something, good for you. If not, too bad so sad. I am under no obligation to show you my formulas nor the different scenarios. You can keep asking like an idiot though. I'll just say - keep your eyes on your own paper.
KThomp contributes facts and data, you and others contribute noise.
Just read KThomp Rick, that’s what Carney is saying.
I admire your conviction KThomp. You are correct in that I am not unbiased. I'm only calling you out on the BS hypocritical posturing because that's what you do to others.
"It's funny that you bring up Treasury fearing lawsuits, because it's writing off the seniors that Treasury thought was illegal a few years ago."
Unsubstantiated claim based on hearsay. At no point did Treasury state they thought anything was illegal. Treasury is an entity, not a person. I've said this multiple times and I don't see you producing any evidence to the contrary.
"If you were even remotely capable of logically arguing against what I say then you would do so, rather than resorting to ad hominems and dodging the relevant questions"
I am arguing against what you say. You just refuse to acknowledge it. This leads to me calling you a hypocrite. Cause -> Effect.
"What I want are reasonable and detailed arguments as to why the commons could possibly go beyond $10 or so in the future even if FnF are recapped and released. I have yet to see one."
What you want? Am I supposed to care? We have zero obligation to jump through hoops for you. If you don't like the arguments or basis for opinions posted, you can disagree in a reply, or poop emoji them, or sit there and shake your head quietly. I don't see anyone else calling people out for not providing detailed calculations or filing a lawsuit to back their position. That's utter nonsense.
"And you are incapable of answering basic questions about future lawsuits, even when prompted."
Again, I've answered your questions multiple times. The answers are vague and not to your liking because I'm not Nostradamus. So be it. Refer back to zero obligation statement above.
"At least when I call others hypocrites it's actually correct."
You very well may be correct. But you are also the pot calling the kettle black.
What is Carney saying ? Dr. TightCoil and I will put him in his place real fast. We have a bazooka from our workplace at the Ringly Brothers.
oh no, good earnings, markets up, fed is neutral, and psychoRUsCarney shows up and ruins the day. the efforts to pound down the ticker near end of day may just backfire. no one cares, no one is listening, and commons looks like they are headed back to 4s, where they were before the last receivership scare started.
Thank you for providing correct answers to counter the blatantly incorrect speculation that is running rampant around here.
The difference with Amelia is that I sold at a profit. A second difference might be that I sold at a temporary high in the JPS.
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