Fannie Mae (FNMA)

[navycmdr]

FNMA / FMCC both Candlestick patterns ...

need to see how it plays out tomorrow



Bearish Evening Star

Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bearish
Reliability: High

How to Identify it

First day is a long white day
Second day is a small day that gaps in the direction of the previous trend
The third day is a black day
What it Means

In an uptrend, the market builds strength on a long white day and gaps open on the second day. However, the second day trades within a small range and closes at or near its open. This scenario generally shows an erosion of confidence in the current trend. Confirmation of the trend reversal is the black third day.

[matmlg]

Where are you seeing 10 billion a quarter?

[tutt1126]

With more than 10 billions earned in profit each Q. If Fnma drops back to $.25 again, than I will buy more and hold until 2028.

[BaGr]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=%23&ved=0ahUKEwib8oLDz9rWAhUL5yYKHcShA30Qxa8BCCUwAA&usg=AOvVaw0VTJzWxrN8ZFOD4xbU2nov

[tutt1126]

Very impressive

[bcde]

justradin,

Thanks for your contributions with your views.

I think, we do need to respect the reasonable opinions that question the credibilty of any news, facts, or expert opinions. At the same time the comments like yours also required.

Experts can not be expected to know everything and keep track of all the facts and news. So called Experts also have their own personal conflict of interests, biases and many have their own egos and eccentricities. Same is true with TH.

TH is good in financial analysis and Fannie Mae financial facts but relies only on published facts. TH lacks expertise in other fields like law and forensic accounting. I also found him to be more PC oriented.

Rek is not prefect but helps us to understand many legal issues. He takes time to respond back. So if rek questions something it should be ok as part our exchange of views.

[Letgoofmyfannie]

GSE Bummertime

GSE Bummertime Blues

Eight years ago Congress took over Fan and Freddie
By HERA Law control was gonna be temporary
Treasury's Third Amendment Sweep sounds like a Joke:
"You'll never pay us back 'cuz you'll always be broke"
A shrinking Middle Class sez Congress whatcha gonna do?
'Cause there ain't no end to the Fanniegate Blues

They've released Depositions, it's getting pretty messy
FHFA was controlled by Treasury
Well...Treasury manipulated Shares on the open market
"To keep Investors from making a Profit"
RICO is the Statute the Feds oughta use,
Except the Feds are the Cause of the Fanniegate Blues

I'm going on Social Media, I'm gonna file a Lawsuit
About Congress stealing' GSE Profits
I trolled Bobby Corker, Senator tweeted *quote*
"I won't help Shareholders and I recommend you go Short"
Our next Housing Crisis will be caused by Government stooges
And there ain't no end to the Fanniegate Blues...

[Patswil]

Does anyone know about the current budget that's been submitted and Fannie Mae??

[justradin]

Yes, Mr. Factual... :)

A man that ran the enterprise for a decade is absolutely lacking as an expert in testimony.

I bet they just paid him to stay home and not mess it all up.

[DJVan57]

I'd like to interject. Mr Howard posted some comments on his webpage about CRT risk transfers as he just did a presentation on the topic for Compass Point. someone posed him a question about Watts testimony , specifically that Watt had stated that FNMA might only need 2%-3% capital buffer so he was responding to the question and did not set out to comment on Watts testimony. the gist of his comment was that Watt still did not understand the business that well as he apparently stated the reason FNMA needed less than a bank as because of the risk transfers being effective off-putting of risk. Howard says theyre not banks and shouldn't be treated like banks with respect to capital. He also is strong proponent that the risk transfers are just giveaways to the large banks.
I have read his stuff extensively and he is very knowledgeable though because of this people do write him and ask his opinion quite frequently.

[justradin]

Do you know who you are talking to?

He is the official IHUB FNMA legal analyst. A constitutional scholar.

One that doesn't understand the most basic fact that we live in a Republic form of government, but don't let that prevent you from heeding the gems of pure wisdom.

[Vancmike]

Mel Watt testimony - If I remember correctly,( I am sure others will ) it seems Mel was asked more than once about his athority to act alone and make a decision. I found that very curious.

It that was true, is that a potential signal?

[rekcusdo]

I'm referring to his assessment of the Watt testimony....the one he commented on with great length...but preceded his analysis with the general statement "I haven't actually seen the testimony...but now I'll make comments based on it".

[rekcusdo]

I don't believe I said that at all...

You are, like the person bcde posted, making conclusions based on facts not in evidence.

[bcde]

"lol - rekcusdo thinks he's more credible than Tim Howard."

whipstick,

You have valid point.
I think credibility depends in the following order.

1. Verifiable facts
2. Credibility of the source
3. Credibility of the presenter
4. The context and format of the presentation

Accountability, Openness and Transparency are the foundation for this.

FHFA conservatorship fails on all these principles.

[rekcusdo]

His knowledge maybe, but his opinion blogs that were linked by bcde made FACTUAL conclusions based on information he hadn't even viewed. So, though he may know a lot, I may have concerns about his methodology to how he forms conclusions.

[ada]

I would say as far as credibility and knowledge of the GSE industry he is probably in the top five in the world. Certainly the top ten.

[ada]

Maybe I didn't read it right or read the whole thing. I just saw Howard on mortgage and that's the real Tim Howard not Tim Howard 717. That's the blog.

[ada]

You got a follow for that post

[whipstick]

lol - rekcusdo thinks he's more credible than Tim Howard.

[bcde]

"I'll take his "credibility" with a grain of salt. "

rek,

Is it also not true about Obama administration handling of FnF and all FHFA Conservators?

Discovered documents have proven this point. Who knows how many more skeletons are hidden in the conservatorship closet?

[Patswil]

I believe that is correct. DT is tired of this carry forward BS

they must be set FREE.......since there is no BK...

[rekcusdo]

Thanks, Timothy Howard previous CFO of FNMA is very well known in housing finance who carries some credibility than unknown bloggers.

Well, considering he posted in that link you provided that he hasn't seen the Watt testimony, then went on to make conclusions on it...I'll take his "credibility" with a grain of salt.

[rekcusdo]

How do I know which is which?!?!?!? lol. :)

The guy that bcde posted made a conclusion based on Watt's testimony without having actually seen the testimony...so I assume that's the fake guy.

[lumpina]

I would have NO problem living in that high altitude; perhaps shortness of breath - but, who cares?

[RCChristian]

For 10 years the Federal Reserve has been buying up MBS. They have the power to protect their investments including the economy. Now they have begun selling and you will see a shift in policies. This baby is too hot for any branch of government to handle until the FEDS sells off their investments, a sign they are taking their grip off the FnF/industry.

[kap18682]

I don't understand why Watt and congress keep having these meetings. There pretty much wasn't anything different in this meeting than the last one. Watt states that the companies have taken on many reforms, these are not the companies they once were, we are concerned with the capital buffers, we don't want to make a draw, I urge congress to act. I think we all know what congress is capable of. If it is left to congress it will be another 10 years before anything gets done.

[ada]

Whether he actually did or didn't I don't know but he did call the high pretty much.

[Donotunderstand]

wow

I can not get to such heights

[Donotunderstand]

The New York Times is left leaning and has been so for decades

The New York Times is not Fake News ... it can have a bias - but those saying it is FAKE are deceiving no one but themselves

[Donotunderstand]

Where is that written -- seriously - where is it written that if F and F pay back the full Senior Preferred "infusion" that the warrants go poof

That has been "said" before but as far as I know - nothing is contingent on "nothing"

Gov has those warrants and can choose to exercise or not

There is no --- "only if" provision to the ownership and exercise of the warrants

(Here - I would love to see where in writing it says I am wrong)

[mike_usa]

What's the current RSI for FNMA ?

[stink stack]

Yea ,right! LOL

[stink stack]

Thanks ada, be well, do well, :)

[contrarian bull]

Yea, this morning @2.88,:)

Apparently when the news got out that stink was buying again the stocks took a nice jump at the end of the day.

Yes - good job!

[ada]

Nice job

[ada]

What about lawsuits? There too?

[stink stack]

Right on, thanks. I will definitely take note! :)

[navycmdr]

thnx ... some of my personal TRADIN' rules ...

I only Buy on RED days never GREEN ... when the

RSI is below 20 and pps outside of lower Bollie Band

I will Sell or take profits when RSI is above 75-80

and pps above upper Bollie Band (it ALWAYS comes BACK inside )

[stink stack]

Yea, this morning @2.88,:)

[navycmdr]

I did previously until Mel spoke last ...

knew what was coming and how long until we can

expect the next run ... I will TRADE smaller pops

until next year ... imo - nothing major gonna happen

until then ...

[stink stack]

Way to go Navycmndr!

[ada]

Never mind, I mis-read your post

[ada]

The real Tim Howard is different than the Tim Howard blogger

[bcde]

"Timothy Howard is not a source any more than you or I are. He's a blogger posting his biased opinion, the same as we are.

While it's ok to post his opinions, you shouldn't post them as if they are proven facts. "

rek,
Thanks, Timothy Howard previous CFO of FNMA is very well known in housing finance who carries some credibility than unknown bloggers. Once again it is opinion and not a proven fact.

As far Mel Watt is considered, Mel Watt is the best spokesperson for himself and he has done a very poor job of explaining himself as a FHFA Director.

[ada]

Did you buy your third back?

[navycmdr]

most likely will ... I started w only 5K shares ... by TRADING

the RIPS & Buying the DIPS along with adding Cash from

Tax returns I TRADE more than 10X that many shares now

you don't have to BUY the low or Sell the High just have to

be a gnat riding the Elephant when it changes direction ....

I was happy to sell my Freddie @ $3.15 .... it went to $3.21

plan to buy back in Freddie below $2.80 or better

current Freddie support & resistance from Barchart.com

[stink stack]

I suggest that you buy more shares with the profits.

[rekcusdo]

Timothy Howard is not a source any more than you or I are. He's a blogger posting his biased opinion, the same as we are.

While it's ok to post his opinions, you shouldn't post them as if they are proven facts.

[rekcusdo]

Haha. Very good! Cant complain about profits. I sold a different stock a couple years ago and bought a car, so I know the pleasure.

Only reason Ill sell this stock is if I can buy a house with the money though...not there yet.