Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[jcromeenes]

I kind of thought the board and C-Suite changes were the big announcement.

[navycmdr]

23 days and counting since the

Big announcements coming soon ...

$fnma $fmcc @pulte, day count since “big announcement” promised: 23

— GSE Hotline (@GSEHotline) April 6, 2025

[DCBill]

I've watched the Congressional Budget Office GSE reporting for more than 40 years, on the Hill, while working at federal financial regulatory agencies, and for more than 20 years at Fannie Mae).
It has ben frequently quoted--but often discounted--and seldom, with a variety of D and R editors, ever produced anything useful to the F&F missions or performances.
It won't happen but Elon's teenage warriors could save a lot of federal cash by cutting CBO's budget in half or zapping it entirely.
(Again, it tends to produce reports that comport closely or in line with the Member of Congress/Committee making the request! Its work is good for lazy reporters.)

[Ricco79]

An oasis for insiders to earn money. They knew that the customs dispute would cause prices to fall again so that they could buy cheaply.

The script fits for the beginning of May.

[ron_66271]

The Perpetual, Non-Accumulative Preferred will be Fine.

Of which most all F&F Preferred are ABS/RMBS.
The Debt based Preferred will be paid in full. The money is there.

Face value from the market and ~2.2X face from Performance Payments from the accumulation of funds in the Trusts when the Twins are released.

F&F, Lehman’s and WaMu are all awaiting CDS Derivative resolution that is nearly complete.

Very few people understand the Derivative Market Meltdown of 2008!



Ron

[krab]

That was great informative interview !!!
Thanks for the link

[Guido2]

FOR IDIOTS WHO QUOTE FROM CBO REPORTS:

Wow… Scott Bessent discovered the Congressional Budget Office Scores are Fraudulent — The same CBO Scoring that ranked Kamala Harris over President Trump during the Campaign

“I didn’t really realize CBO scoring is a lot like Enron Accounting—it’s not real.”

Is anything real?… pic.twitter.com/Pv8mIijauN

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) April 5, 2025

[RickNagra]

This is a must watch interview.  "Banger interview" says Chamath.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explains the administration’s new tariffs, and why we had to do something to stop the slide.

(0:00) Trump’s Tariff Plan
(5:42) The Current State of the Stock Market
(8:22) Will Americans See Substantial Tax Cuts Because of Tariffs?
(13:16) How… pic.twitter.com/ejO9XppT8s

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) April 4, 2025

[amelia43]

A little dramatic, are we!

[Guido2]

ATTENTION DUMMIES:

Mnuchin didn't stop the NWS. He insisted it continue even after Trump was sworn in 2017 and Watt attempted to stop it.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/mnuchin-says-he-expects-fannie-freddie-to-continue-to-pay-dividends

The NWS was stopped by Fifth Circuit Enbanc. In the.meantime, the crook took $45 billion of our equity.

https://today.westlaw.com/Document/I8f951335e38411e9adfea82903531a62/View/FullText.html?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true

Mnuchin then challenged the ruling all the way to SCOTUS.

[Wingsjr]

Yep, I did. Looks like the May the 4th be with you did the trick. All though we are down a dollar + since April 2.

[bradford86]

they wouldn't be screwing you over now, that would have happened in 2008 or 2012 --- and then the supreme court didn't stop it or push it back, and so...

[navycmdr]

tax pckg ... then GSEs

$FNMA, $FMCC, $FNMAS, @BillAckman @SecScottBessent @DoNotLose @DoNotLose
Good news, Senator Lindsay Graham announced tonight that the Trump tax package will be passed in the next 2 weeks. The GSE's release won't happen until the tax priority is settled.

— RobbyKirchner (@KirchnerRobby) April 4, 2025

[EternalPatience]

Didn't you say if this was not made whole by 4/2 (the tarroff deadline day) all hell breaks loose for this stock and god saves us?  
And then someone moved the goal post to May 4th with some fancy verbiage like May the fourth be with you etc

[EternalPatience]

That is correct. Though he stopped the NWS, he added an accounting gimmick in increasing the liquidation preference or some financial garbage term out there
As good as the Neg Am loans of the 2008 crisis. 
Fa did very decent though the last 2 days compared to the other stocks. I didn't  expect us being so close to 6 after all..  we will recover to 6 when stocks turn green and if we go back to 7 by end of April, it's a very solid recovery

[EternalPatience]

The EO is just a board imagination. Nothing more nothing less
The SWF , was said by chamath and not Bessent but he nodded along (I am not a fan of my shares, converted as warrants, and double paying or rather quadra paying unlike this board)
The next thing we have is the 2017 letter
I wish we have something from 2025 or Pulte for this to move forward. E
Concrete verbiage using the word EXIT and timelines than generic mumbo jumbo fancy words with housing sprinkled and everyone linking it to ourselves

[FOFreddie]

Good Points Green Shoots - I would also add that the Trump Admin has been talking a coordinated Housing Policy for a while now since HUD Secretary Turner talked about being asked to QB GSE Release. Vance has mentioned affordable housing a few times and Pulte has made moves with his FNMA/FMCC Appointments that point to regulatory reform and housing initiatives. On top of that we have the SWF which may or may not help our timing now since the Tik Tok deal was delayed and may even have more long-term problems due to the China tariffs. We need to be patient, but it would seem that a June 1 deadline for an EO should be conservative.

[GreenShoots]

Money moves to safety (or profit) during political or economic turmoil. With (supposed and needed) imminent EO and release, results in additional monies to SWF (some say GDP), few better places than FNMA/FMCC to be. Possibility of release now significantly higher given tariff effects on market, drop in bond yields, and need for a win by admin. Republicans (for the majority) on board as demonstrated by budget vote. The longer the wait on release beyond summer, the trickier is gets to be to execute. Risk/reward certainly points to valid jump in FNMA/FMCC (even with them trading on shitty OTC market). Volatile, yes, but entry points galore. If released, lets say fairly certain 4x return. Where are you going to get that in this market? Risk? sure, but at $5-$6, not a hell of a lot. Patience, yes. I really don't think this is a daytraders stock (given OTC market, weak hands. Never know which way it will go). When those that know put their buy orders in, anyone short will get destroyed. They may be able to get some $.50 trades in here and there, but once it's gone, your gone. FOLLOW THE MONEY and their moves.

[wdereb79]

I don't think their financials are going to be very important. I think they are more concerned on the possibilities. I just do not see how they can screw us over now and then ask people to invest in them. I also believe the market needs us now. Save us Fannie!

[amelia43]

Oh that’s what you guys are referring to. I see it differently. Snaky snake Mnuchin didn’t do crap for us. His stopping of the NWS has a clawback that puts all that right back on the balance sheet.

Ok I knew what Mnuchin did but I never regarded that as stopping of NWS. It’s merely putting the same number on the PNL just a matter of top line versus bottom line. Accounting tricks.

Although I did forget about Mnuchin stopping the NWS. However I never counted that as NWS. Though the only way to be free of NWS is to be released. I was hopeful and still hopeful that release is on the way but just pushed back by 6 months or more so perhaps late this year or early next year. Was hoping for June.

[wdereb79]

Hi Golfbum,
With the way the tariffs have tanked the market the last two days, there really is little to re-invest in at the moment that is safe. Wall Street did not anticipate the Trump Administration following thru with these tariffs. They believed he was going to reveal some other plan to calm the markets on Liberation Day (even in the 11th hour). When Trump did not do that, he was basically giving Wall Street the middle finger. Now, we have people from the Administration proclaiming they are now focusing on Main Street and not Wall Street. All of that money that left the market in the last couple of days will be re-invested back into the market in some way. The safest bet would be through some sector that the tariffs don't affect.

It is no secret now that the Trump Administration is planning on releasing Fannie and Freddie. We really did not know the answer to that question for over a decade, but fortunately Trump was re-elected and here we are staring at release. Since then, the question has turned to, how are they going to do it? Are they going to dilute the shareholders out of existence? Are we getting a haircut? When the HELL is this going to happen? What is this going to look like?

Now, with the market being in disarray . . . we now have the perfect storm for a shareholder friendly release for the GSEs. People want to say, oh well they don't care about the current shareholders, they are the government, and they will do what they want when they want. This is true of course.
Whether most of us want to believe it or not, the government could wipe us all out.

Fortunately for us, they now NEED a healthy Fannie and Freddie upon exit from conservatorship. They cannot afford to have these companies tied up in litigation and lawsuits for years to come. The clock is now ticking.

Tanking shareholders is also a terrible message to future investors. Image is everything. It does not go along with the Main Street approach that the Trump Administration is now PREACHING about. Trump is currently on social media telling regular ass people (not rich billionaire friends) . . . there will be opportunity for you to become richer than you have ever been before.

I always thought that Pat was a little crazy with his $325.00 share price prediction (sorry Pat). I am not saying that triple digits are definite, but I do believe all of that is in play now. You guys do what you will, but I bet on commons a long time ago and I am going to stick with it! FNMA LONG!

[Clark6290]

$$LOL, YOU ARE EITHER JOKING OR SIMPLE.MINDED Some folks just post exaggerated prices of the GSEs to feel good, or sucker in uneducated buyers 100 shares at a time

[bradford86]

I am just looking at what i think the common shares are worth if you restructure their balance sheets as they are audited in 2024 financials given their ercf as it stands today.

Sounds like you are saying that their audited financials are not important in an equity restructuring — i hope you are right, but at least understand my view is conservative on the matter. Yours is risk crispies

[Wingsjr]

🤣 Real Clear Poopaltics.🤣🤣🤣

[Wingsjr]

The way they did it doesn’t require any support by D’s. Monster Market on Monday. 🤑😎🇺🇸🚀 Especially with countries caving to 47.

[NeoSunTzu]

President Trump's 1st year budget proposal, which includes what he has proposed on taxes, still needs to go back to the House. The House and Senate have passed different frameworks that must be agreed upon before the budget will be considered passed. So, back to the House it goes... The tax portions include, but are not limited to making Trump's 2017 tax cuts premanent (right now the Senate has them scored at 0 cost, but some House conservatives say that is just a gimmick - could just be chatter), raising the debt ceiling by up to $5T (to take away Democrat leverage on new budget discussions while current financials and economics play out [tariffs, savings from bloated govt. workforce and wasteful spending, interest rates, tax revenues, etc.]), tariffs, and additonal new tax cuts, etc.

[jog49]

"I doubt that anybody in this WH is thinking "GSEs," while the tariff debacle and hellacious market response is inflicting so much pain on US investors."


Pretty sure you are correct on your assessment. When I see that F&F are "slated" for release, I get to have one more chuckle.

[FOFreddie]

Thanks Patswil - yes it passed 51-48.

At 2:30am, the Senate passed our budget resolution, a critical step toward ensuring @POTUS can deliver his agenda.

Safer communities.

A stronger warfighter.

Tax relief for families.

Unleashing American energy dominance.@SenateGOP is more committed than ever. pic.twitter.com/8m1wJA9tN0

— Senator Katie Boyd Britt (@SenKatieBritt) April 5, 2025

[truedat]

Yes,  an opportunity for people with expendable/gambling money? Most persons are holding on to money and not investing cause they know not where the bottom is. Rich persons will come in now and buy the farms, them abandoned business,  the stocks as like the GSEs as they fall. Only time will tell,  but until we can see over the horizon this road looks mighty rocky.

[truedat]

They don't care about these little shareholders. Their concern is only if they can profit/ benefit also.

[Donotunderstand]

YUP
Killing DEI will have a massive positive impact on the PPS of F and F

WTF

[Donotunderstand]

DJT has his thinking and his plan - with which I disagree but I understand.

Yet the massive tariff imposition by DJT is aimed at or the direct reason for the crashing equity - stock markets. Equity (Wealth) Markets are valued based on a look forward on economic activity, near term (5 year out) profit and for sure % growth. DJT attacked THOSE !! with a jolt to our way of doing business and creating wealth by adopting the old nation island protectionist approach to growing our wealth and jobs.

So yes - if any POTUS purposefully appears to be beating up on jobs and growth and investment that will then slow the economy and that slow down (maybe recession or stagflation) will allow and even induce the FED to cut interest rates

But - purposefully beating up the economy with unemployment and people not able to make ends meet and cutting down buying etc. --- is not a wise or winning way to induce lower interest rates (after a 2-3 week binge of panic buying)

Key point - DJT is not attacking the stock market -- not 1%. He is attacking our American 80 year approach to a solid economy with is based on a particular role for the dollar in the world - and trade where it makes sense -- and production here where it makes sense. That attack on our "normal" wealth production capacity is THEN REFLECTED in the share price of American Companies that now expect to earn less and less. This decline is not a surprise - DJT knew it would happen . Then does the attack on wealth and goods and services and jobs continue - that is bad. If his theory works than in 3 years or so we will see more jobs and good stuff. If he is right

AND - he could be right. A true and honest look at our economy and tariffs since WWII says that approach would be the first time broad paradigm shifting tariffs worked in > 100 Years (or ever). Trump says we will do better as an Island Nation and no POTUS with that attitude and approach to the American Economy since the 19th century has ever grown jobs and production and wealth . Housing in a suffering economy gets more affordable as interest rates go down and real estate prices go down as DEMAND goes down Less sales at lower prices does not create more business for F and F

[nagoya1]

Funny how GSE donkey giving economics opinions yet forgets important GSE info...

How is BFF skaterboy doing with 0.05 GSE commons PPS doing these days.

FNMA

[Donotunderstand]

to eliminate waste, fraud, & abuse at the agency & its regulated entities.


That statement is used over and over ---- and it is near nonsense and rounding errors. FHFA F and F deal with 7 Trillion Dollars ----- what does letting a few workers go or spending a few less dollars on offices and such mean.

Like elsewhere is is a "look over there" or rally cry or big RED HERRING

letting go of Social Security people means .000000000000009 impact on that spending
finding waste and fraud and abuse and letting people go means .0000000000000009 on the mortgage market liquidity that F and F provide and .00009 or whatever on the ability to collect enough reserves to be viable stand alone without a 100% GOV guaranty

Compare that red herring to GOV saying they will be a final back up guarantee on F and F paper ?
Compare that red herring savings amount to the GOV wiping out 200B (B for Billion) in so called LP/SP negative capital (liability)

Focus is needed - IMO . This will be a 100% political decision and the impact on common will be drive MOSTLY by what the GOV decides to do with the 200B liability the GOV says F and F owes

[Patswil]

I think tax package passed last night

[amelia43]

I know I’m not the original poster but I’m going to give my best guesses as to what he meant.

After today - means the 2,000+ Dow drop second day in a row. $6t lost in two days.

In a corner - means the tariffs are really screwing up things leaving very few options to lift the market hence GSEs are in a good position, not many things left to be screwed up.

Ok I’m just guessing. Feels like the whole tariffs thing is similar to investing in the GSEs. It’s only for the strong not for the weak!

[RickNagra]

It appears today is Saturday.

[Golfbum22]

“There is no way the government will screw over the common shareholders after today. They can’t do it now. They are in a corner now. This stock is about to soar imo”

What do you mean after today?

And

They are in a corner now?

TIA

[MRJ25]

That is, it. The government has lost. They have to make a deal favorable to the shareholders.

[juicyjuice10002]

The administration is ready to make a deal. It needs a deal at this time more than any other time. It does not want to face a much larger JURY trial. The verdict the shareholders have won will be quoted in each trial. Trump administration does not want to face another "legal quagmire".

[wdereb79]

Markets fell on the news, but Trump said that represented an opportunity for people on Friday.

“TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.

[wdereb79]

You are the last person that should call out anyone regarding these companies. There is no way the government will screw over the common shareholders after today. They can’t do it now. They are in a corner now. This stock is about to soar imo.

[amelia43]

Yup. That is why I’m good with $10.

[bcde]

FnF Release is positive for markets and US economy.
Looks like Tarrriffs do not affect FnF directly.

BTW Trumps works on many things at the same time.
Besides Pulte can handle FnF matter without any help from others.

Also it is time for Jerome to lower interest rates or get out of the way before Trump acts.

[Patswil]

The Senate is in an all night session(I think)----maybe, just maybe

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm

[navycmdr]

Bill Ackman

.@VDHanson makes a compelling case for the @realDonaldTrump tariff strategy, but gets one issue incorrect. He describes the Trump tariffs as reciprocal and proportional to those other nations have assessed on us.

In actuality, the Trump tariffs were set at levels substantially… https://t.co/WdKggDlVbD

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) April 5, 2025

[navycmdr]

Senate Republicans urge Pulte to take

more actions ...

Senate Republicans urge Pulte to take more actions https://t.co/3ADrV9I1c4

— Cmdr Ron Luhmann (@usnavycmdr) April 5, 2025

[bradford86]

Sounds about right. Luke, i am your father (who got voted out of senate baking committee yolo)

[bradford86]

Now you are just making it up

[wdereb79]

Thank you, Red Cloud. This is what I have been telling all my worried friends and family. I have read a lot of your posts and you seem like a wise person. Never underestimate the power of CASH money.