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~BIDU~
~XLF~/~VIX~/~$RIFIN~
...yes,the three day candle pattern can be interpreted as bullish...
...I dont always follow the crowd though...I half expect further rallying,although my money is targeting(on) the bear side...if Im a few days early...who cares...the odds are getting better and better for a retracement period...
...the praying mantis teaches us to be patient until the perfect opportunity to strike arrives...the calculations are done...its action time...
5 regional banks asked to raise $8.2 billion in new capital based on government 'stress tests'
5 regional banks must raise $8.2B after tests
5 regional banks asked to raise $8.2 billion in new capital based on government 'stress tests'
* Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
* On Thursday May 7, 2009, 8:41 pm EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-regional-banks-must-raise-apf-15176789.html?.v=6
Related:
* BB & T Corp.
* , Fifth Third Bancorp
* , KeyCorp
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Five of the nation's largest regional banks are vulnerable to a worsening recession and need to raise a total $8.2 billion in new capital based on results of government "stress tests" released Thursday.
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The two regional banks based in the Southeast, Regions Financial Corp. and Suntrust Banks Inc., got bigger capital-raising mandates than the three based in the Midwest -- Fifth Third Bancorp, KeyCorp and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp. in Winston-Salem, N.C., do not need to raise additional money.
Regional banks can be bellwethers of the health of their local economies, making loans to businesses and industries in the region, financing development projects and employing thousands of people. Many regional banks hold concentrations of commercial real estate loans -- a hot spot of potential trouble -- that make them vulnerable to weakness in their geographic areas. If the recession deepened, defaults on the high-risk loans could soar. Companies already have shut down and vacated shopping malls and office buildings that were financed by the loans.
The government tests found that Birmingham, Ala.-based Regions Financial Corp. needs to raise $2.5 billion; Atlanta-based SunTrust needs $2.2 billion; Cleveland's KeyCorp needs $1.8 billion; Fifth Third in Cincinnati needs $1.1 billion; and Pittsburgh-based PNC needs $600 million.
The seven banks each received an injection of several billion dollars under the federal financial bailout program, and several have said they believe they'll be in a position to repay it soon. The banks said Thursday they will raise the required funds through the capital markets, without additional government aid, and in some cases by possibly selling assets. They are required to submit capital-raising plans to the regulators by June 8.
Regions Financial said it has committed to raise the prescribed $2.5 billion, but "questions whether it should be required to raise additional capital now to provide for a two-year adverse economic scenario," especially since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this week he expected the economy to start recovering this year.
Analysts and investors have been eager to see how the seven regional banks fared on the government's tests of their financial conditions. The results could spark a round of mergers, with stronger institutions absorbing weaker banks that the tests say need more capital. Disappointed stock market investors could push their prices so low that they look like bargains to larger banks.
Independent banking consultant Bert Ely said it's likely a handful of the banks will be taken over by the end of the year. Regional banks with depressed stock prices are the most likely takeover targets, and foreign banks looking to expand their U.S. operations are the probable buyers, he said.
Another possibility: Banks told to raise capital in the private markets may be forced by potential investors to join with stronger banks, said Wayne Abernathy, a former Treasury official now with the American Bankers Association.
The most vulnerable banks are those with large loan holdings in areas with the highest unemployment and the most severe fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, like Michigan, Ohio, California and Florida, said Joe Gladue, an analyst who follows smaller regional banks at investment bank B. Riley & Co. in Philadelphia.
SunTrust is strongly concentrated in Florida, where conditions for both residential and commercial real estate have been especially bleak. And Regions Financial and Fifth Third also have been notably stung by losses on commercial real estate loans in that state.
Unlike the home-loan disaster, which appears to be in its final stages, "it seems there's probably more pain to come" in the commercial real estate business, Gladue said.
Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., last year told banks that if they have concentrations of commercial real estate loans, they should take steps to strengthen their risk controls, and maintain capital cushions and reserves against loan losses.
The stress tests were designed to gauge whether any of the nation's 19 largest banks, including the seven regionals, would need more capital to survive a deeper recession. It turns out many of the banks do: Ten of the 19 need a total of around $75 billion in new capital to withstand losses under that scenario.
The tests put the banks through two scenarios: one that reflected expectations about the current recession and another that envisioned a recession deeper than what analysts predict.
The heavy holdings of commercial real estate loans can even give regional banks a riskier profile than some big Wall Street banks -- which carry bigger portfolios of securities such as mortgage-backed bonds that already have plunged in value. The stress tests treated those securities as more durable than they did loans.
Some analysts fear that the commercial real estate market could topple into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s. Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or close.
AP Business Writer Daniel Wagner contributed to this report.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-regional-banks-must-raise-apf-15176789.html?.v=6
Results show 10 big banks need $75 billion in new capital; hope rises for economy's recovery
Banks' tests results lift cloud of uncertainty
Results show 10 big banks need $75 billion in new capital; hope rises for economy's recovery
* Daniel Wagner and Jeannine Aversa, AP Business Writers
* On Friday May 8, 2009, 7:38 am EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-tests-results-lift-apf-15180021.html?.v=11
Related:
* American Express Company
* , Bank of America Corporation
* , Citigroup, Inc.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Government exams of the nation's biggest banks have helped lift a cloud of uncertainty that has hung over the economy.
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The so-called stress tests -- a key Obama administration effort to boost confidence in the financial system -- showed nine of the 19 biggest banks have enough capital to withstand a deeper recession. Ten must raise a total of $75 billion in new capital to withstand possible future losses.
"The publication of the stress tests simply cleared the air of uncertainty," said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics. "The results were not scary at all."
He said it will take a long time for the banks to resume normal lending. But the test results didn't alter his prediction that economy is headed for a recovery in October or November.
A key indicator of economic health will be released Friday morning, when the government announces how many more jobs were lost in April and how high the unemployment rate rose.
The stress tests have been criticized as a confidence-building exercise whose relatively rosy outcome was inevitable. But the information, which leaked out all week, was enough to cheer investors. They pushed bank stocks higher Wednesday, and rallied again in after-hours trading late Thursday once the results had been released.
Among the 10 banks that need to raise more capital, Bank of America Corp. needs by far the most -- $33.9 billion. Wells Fargo & Co. needs $13.7 billion, GMAC LLC $11.5 billion, Citigroup Inc. $5.5 billion and Morgan Stanley $1.8 billion.
The five other firms found to need more of a capital cushion are all regional banks -- Regions Financial Corp. of Birmingham, Ala.; SunTrust Banks Inc. of Atlanta; KeyCorp of Cleveland; Fifth Third Bancorp of Cincinnati; and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. of Pittsburgh.
The banks will have until June 8 to develop a plan and have it approved by their regulators. If they can't raise the money on their own, the government said it's prepared to dip further into its bailout fund.
The stress tests are a big part of the Obama administration's plan to fortify the financial system. As home prices fell and foreclosures increased, banks took huge hits on mortgages and mortgage-related securities they were holding.
The government hopes the stress tests will restore investors' confidence that not all banks are weak, and that even those that are can be strengthened. They have said none of the banks will be allowed to fail.
Among the banks that the government did not ask to raise more capital were JPMorgan Chase & Co., brokerage house Goldman Sachs Group Inc., insurer MetLife Inc. and credit card companies Capital One Financial Corp. and American Express Co.
Together, the 19 firms that took the test hold two-thirds of the assets and half the loans in the U.S. banking system.
Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley said they'll try to raise billions in fresh capital. Meanwhile, American Express became the first major financial institution to formally request permission to return federal bailout money provided under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
Separately, Citigroup said it's planning to convert an extra $5.5 billion of preferred shares -- a kind of debt -- into common stock after the stress tests determined it needs an equal amount in fresh capital.
GMAC said it will raise the $11.5 billion mandated by the Treasury within six months, a task that could involve the federal government taking a big stake in the auto finance company.
The Treasury lent GMAC $5 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program in December after granting the company's request to become a bank. In exchange, the government received preferred stock. In a statement Thursday, GMAC said one option for raising the capital was for it to convert "existing equity into a form of Tier 1 common equity."
GMAC, which reported a first-quarter loss of $675 million, said earlier this week it has seen rising defaults in its auto finance division. That, combined with soured assets in its Residential Capital LLC mortgage unit, makes it more difficult for the company to raise the additional capital in the public markets.
The tests found that if the recession were to worsen, losses at the 19 stress-tested firms during 2009 and 2010 could total $600 billion. Of those losses, $185.5 billion would be from mortgages, $82.4 billion from credit card loans and $53 billion from commercial real estate loans -- the loans on banks' books that analysts say are now most vulnerable to default.
"Looking at the big picture, you can say that things aren't so bad for the financial industry as a whole," said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at Dresdner Kleinwort.
But Logan said attracting fresh capital will be a challenge for banks that need it.
"The banking industry is not going to make a lot of money going forward, and that's a dilemma for keeping banks solvent and getting them lending," he said.
Large and regional bank stocks mostly rallied in after-hours trading as investors showed relief over the results. Bank of America rose 9.2 percent to $14.75, while JPMorgan gained 1.5 percent to $35.77. Fifth Third Bancorp advanced 23.4 percent to $6.60, while Boston's State Street Corp. jumped to $40.90, a gain of 8.1 percent.
The government's unprecedented decision to publicly release bank exams has led some critics to question whether the findings are credible. Some said regulators seemed so intent on sustaining public confidence in the banks that the results would have to find the banks basically healthy, even if some need to raise more capital.
Jaidev Iyer, a former risk management chief at Citigroup, said regulators are playing to public expectations, which could put the government in the role of creating "winners and losers." Because the government has said it won't let any firm fold, taxpayers may wind up on the hook.
"If there is in fact no appetite to let losers fail, then the real losers are the market at large, the government and the taxpayers," Iyer said.
In the tests, the Fed put banks through a scenario that imagines how they would fare if the recession worsened. It imagined that joblessness would hit 10.3 percent next year and house prices would fall more than 22 percent.
Some analysts have questioned whether the tests were rigorous enough. For example, economists expect the jobless rate to approach or exceed 10 percent by year's end -- and to go higher next year -- even if the recession doesn't worsen.
A steeper downturn would make it harder for consumers and businesses to repay loans, which would cause banks' assets to lose value. The government is forcing the banks to keep their capital reserves up so they can keep lending even if the economic picture darkens.
The tests measured bank reserves based on what's known as common equity, the value of a company's common stock and profits. Some of the banks have big enough reserves by traditional measures but fall short by this narrower standard.
"It's not really stressful, so how could it be a stress test?" said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist with the International Monetary Fund and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "This makes it seem like we're not having a financial crisis at all."
Johnson said some bank executives have told him they already are losing more money on commercial real estate loans than the tests estimated even under the harsher economic scenario.
The stock market has cheered the results, he said, because the message is that the government will continue supporting the banks no matter what it costs.
Another criticism of the stress tests is that they failed to address a key problem confronting banks: The troubled mortgage assets on their books are making it hard for them to resume normal lending.
Banks that need capital have several options. Some would be able to close the gap by converting the government's debt into common stock.
"These tests will help ensure that banks have a sufficient capital cushion to continue lending in a more adverse economic scenario," said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. "They will provide the transparency necessary for individuals and markets to judge the strength of the banking system."
Describing the purpose of the tests, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a news conference with Geithner, "This is to make sure banks have enough capital to offset the losses we know are coming in the next couple of years."
AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, AP Business Writer Ieva M. Augstums in Charlotte, N.C., and AP Business Writers Stevenson Jacobs, Sara Lepro, Madlen Read and Candice Choi in New York contributed to this report.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-tests-results-lift-apf-15180021.html?.v=11
WASHINGTON (AP) The big banks got through the government's "stress tests" with only minor bruising. But a bigger test awaits them: Getting rid of the bad assets that helped ignite the financial crisis in the first place.
Stress tests do little to fix banks' asset problem
With stress tests behind them, banks turn to the toxic assets that still plague balance sheets
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stress-tests-do-little-to-fix-apf-15190399.html?.v=5
* Daniel Wagner and Stevenson Jacobs, AP Business Writers
* On Friday May 8, 2009, 6:23 pm EDT
Related:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co.
* , Wells Fargo & Company
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The big banks got through the government's "stress tests" with only minor bruising. But a bigger test awaits them: Getting rid of the bad assets that helped ignite the financial crisis in the first place.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stress-tests-do-little-to-fix-apf-15190399.html?.v=5
It won't be easy. A Treasury program announced three months ago to help private investors buy up those assets hasn't even begun. Some banks are threatening not to participate. They fear they won't fetch a high enough price for their soured mortgage-related debt, which was bought at the height of the housing boom.
Removing the bad assets is needed to fix the banks and help revive the economy. Unless they can sell off these assets, banks won't be able to resume normal lending and rebuild confidence in the financial system, even if they have enough money to survive.
The International Monetary Fund has estimated U.S. financial institutions could ultimately lose $2.7 trillion from the global credit crisis.
The stress tests said the 19 largest banks could lose $600 billion by the end of 2010 if the recession worsened. Of that sum, about $135 billion involves trades with other banks and investments, including mortgage-backed securities -- the kinds of assets that have come to be called toxic.
But many experts say those estimates undercount potential losses on bad assets.
One reason is the tests didn't assess such risks for firms with less than $100 billion in their trading portfolios. Another is that the calculation of capital levels assumed the assets were worth what banks say they are, not what the market would pay.
The tests helped clarify the banks' capital needs, said Richard R. Zabel, an accountant at Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi. But they didn't make dealing with the core of the financial crisis -- troubled bank assets -- any easier, he said.
By itself, pumping $75 billion more capital into 10 of the nation's 19 largest banks, as prescribed by the stress tests, "won't eliminate the problem" of bad assets, he said.
"The stress tests were hypothetical," Zabel said. "Now we have to deal with reality, and until you remove toxic assets, they are going to be an issue. If we continue to have home foreclosures and high unemployment, the value of these assets are going to continue to deteriorate."
The banks' bad assets -- those that have lost value or can't be sold -- were the target of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's original bank rescue plan last fall. His successor, Timothy Geithner, outlined his own plan to help private investors buy up the assets on Feb. 10.
The program aims to entice investors to buy up to a half-trillion dollars of bad assets, to shore up banks' capital and unlock credit. The program could later be expanded to $1 trillion.
So far, there's been little sign of progress.
Treasury started accepting applications from private companies that want to manage the program, then changed the terms. It announced last week that it had received 100 applications to participate. But Treasury has yet to provide much detail about how the program will work. Large banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., have balked at signing up, wary of possible federal curbs on executive pay.
In an interview this week on PBS' "The Charlie Rose Show," Geithner said the program will be "up and running in the next four to six weeks."
He described the program as a companion to the stress tests, saying, "The stress test will increase certain incentives to sell, because it will require them to hold more capital against the loans on their balance sheets."
But the stress tests undercounted the banks' possible losses on complex assets, said Frederick Cannon, of the research firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
Cannon said he was shocked that the test didn't forecast Wells Fargo & Co. losing any money from its exposure related to other institutions' debt. He said the bank acknowledged in a recent filing it had $120 billion at risk if guarantees on certain investments go bad.
The government applied a harsh test to loans the banks hold, Cannon said, but used a more lenient test for assets. Firms with less than $100 billion in their trading accounts were not even evaluated for this kind of risk.
And they were required to hold capital against only half their mortgage-related securities -- a formula for "risk-weighted assets" that Cannon said is outdated.
In recent years, banks started relying on increasingly complex securities deals to spread risk across the system. Many of their problem assets are hard to value, because they're backed by huge and diverse pools of mortgages.
Once home values began falling in 2007, owners started having trouble refinancing mortgage loans. Defaults rose. That caused bank assets to lose value. Soon, buyers became unwilling to pay market rates for a wide swath of mortgage-related assets, even those that were performing well.
Uncertainty about what these assets are worth is preventing the financial system from fully recovering, experts say. Buyers are unwilling to pay anything close to what the banks say they're worth.
"There's no fire sale, and the guys who want to buy stuff would rather buy from people who are under pressure," said Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Business.
He pointed to problems with the government's strategy, including its willingness to keep pouring billions into the banks. Banks "feel no pressure to sell" because they are confident the government will keep subsidizing them, Johnson said.
Taxpayer advocates also say Treasury's plan puts too much risk on taxpayers and too little on the private investors. In report last month to Congress, the special inspector general for the financial rescue said the program favors private investors and creates "potential unfairness to the taxpayer."
The program "is so large and the leverage being provided to the private equity participants so beneficial, that the taxpayer risk is many times that of the private parties, thereby potentially skewing the economic incentives," the report said.
But the program doesn't have to deal with every bad asset the banks hold. All the government has to do is "chum the waters" with enough subsidies that private investors start buying again, said William Seidman, who headed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. during the savings and loan crisis.
That's one reason the government is providing such low-risk financing to the hedge funds and others that take part in the program, said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at RGE Monitor.
Hedge fund manager Steven Persky, who's raised $400 million to buy mortgage-backed securities, said his firm has applied to participate in the private-public partnership. But he hasn't decided if it will.
A big problem, Persky said, is that the rules still haven't been clearly laid out three months after the program was announced.
Investors, for example, still don't know if they'll be subject to federal compensation limits applied to bank executives whose firms took money from Treasury.
"I'm interested," Persky said. "But it's still not clear to me what the rules are."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stress-tests-do-little-to-fix-apf-15190399.html?.v=5
Stevenson Jacobs reported from New York.
~RIMM~...@ a very powerful intersection of resistance points...(38.2% fib & tagging a year long descending top trendline...not to mention the multiple stochastics extremely over bought conditions...
...High probability put play...what should shake out all shorts is if ~RIMM~ breaks above the Top Descending Trendline...
...on a breakout, its an immediate swing trade targeting 91.59-104.94 (= 50 & 61.8% fib)...breakout of trendline increases the odds of that gap getting filled in swift order...
(old chart that still remains informative)
~FITB~...woW...daily & weekly....
...most bullish target would be no higher than 13.18(61.8% retracement)...getting past the 45 degree Gann angle may not be so easy...
...targeting puts monday,especially on a gap up to 9.50...
morning Tony,~XLF~ may have just completed wave 5...
...starting to accumulate ~FAZ~ again...LOL..two huge gaps in a row...
~AAPL~
...possibility that Googles Eric Schmidt may resign from ~AAPL~'s Board because of possible anti-trust violations...(a ceo being on two boards,etc...) Eric Schmidt's departure will hardly be a reason to celebrate...
...bear move may be in play soon...
...~AAPL~ will always come back though in the end,always does...
~$NATGAS~ daily & weekly...
~BKUNA!$! .50 x .53 YAH! YAH!
still plenty of room to move and (per gov),someone has to buy it soon...
...when ~BAC~ hits 14...it is at that moment,that,I want ~FAZ~...
...Ive been saying that to myself for two months now...11.37 now...
...someone kick me in the head if I dont buy then...
(old chart)...still striving for the same price target to end 5...
~$NATGAS~ $ ~EROC~
~$NAA50~ & ~$NAA200~...todays pattern suggests market correction very soon,imo...
And that, is Fantastic DD LOLOL, big up C. 
...watching ~ICE~ as a possible short cantidate...getting past these 3 resistance may be dificult...red beaming any weakness...
...currently at a tri section of three different resistances...
...38.2% fib...
...pitchfork 50% level...
...top ascending short-term trendline...
~EROC~ adding here @ the lows...
~EPEX~
solid D&D Rawnoc...I almost bought some yesterday morning @ 3.27 ,but didnt want to chase...
...you might be on to something...with this potential tween trend amongst the heely generation...you opened the door for me to watch this one,thanks...
~GVA~...actually a bullish pick...
P-E Ratio = 12
Dividend Yield = 1.3%
Market Cap = $1.50 Bil
Profit Margin = 8.7%
Quartery EPS % Chg. = 38%
Debt % = 33%
Shares Outstanding = 38.2 Mil
Float = 37.5 Mil
recent headlines:(company copping some big deals)
"Granite Announces Modifications to World Trade Center Contract"
"Granite Joint Venture Team Awarded Houston Light Rail Project
"Granite Construction to Announce First Quarter 2009 Financial Results May 4th"
~EBS~...will history repeat...~EBS~ was more resilient than any other stock last year during the crash...we may soon see...
~CMG~...downward pressure building...
... picked up some ~FAZ~...
~GMCR~
Market Cap = $1.81 Bil
Profit Margin = 8.2%
Quarterly EPS % Chg. = 117%
Debt % =89%
Shares Outstanding = 24.7 Mil
Float = 19.0 Mil
Deal to sell coffee makers/coffe @ walmart
http://pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=gmcr#getNews
...enter ~GMCR~ may 65 puts, 32 ave@ 1.40...
...too toppy to resist...strong coffee company with big walmart contract...super extended,imo...
...year-to-date fibonacci range appears to fit perfect as seen on the daily...
...interesting vix projection...
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Everyone is responsible for their own entry & exit points.
A place where Fundamental analysis can meet with Technical analysis.
Timing is everything.
The advantage that we have now over the 'Legends of the past ',is that our market is much more Global... There will be new legends in our time, some unknown...hopefully some of those legends will surface here. The most intense charting techniques,the most solid & thorough fundamental analysis, and exact thoughts at precise times by some of the greatest traders of our time...that, is what I want this board to become one day.
Einstein ~said to question everything...
Fibonacci~ said to implement egyptian mathematics....
GANN ~said to focus on 45 degree angles...
Bullkowski ~said to focus on % probabilities...
Andrew ~said to exploit Pitchforks...
Bollinger ~said to intensely monitor volatility...
Buffett said to focus on markets that you understand then exploit the fundamentals...
Livermore said to evaluate everything ahead of time,& then swing with it...
Benjmin Graham~ said to simplify every investment down to the lowest Intrinsic Value...F/A before T/A...
Michael Phelps ~showed us to Hold nothing Back...
~6979~ ~says that if the tactic/technique isnt broken... then dont fix it...follow the masters...
AI
