ExpressJet (XJT)

[downsideup]

Trade was in yesterday, up today on airlines. I'm willing to go long XJT again here, but am finding that GOL is a better ride for day trading its bounces. There may be an advantage in XJT moving like molasses with a line delay, if, say, you can trade a bounce in GOL, and then still turn it into a bounce in XJT that has yet to occur ?

ATSG and GOL showing some interestingly divergent patterns, too.

[novicetrader]

Really looking forward to your research update & your going 'friggin nuts on the IBox' on Exp Jet!And thanks for taking on the reins of this board.I've been around on this one for a while now,waiting for something good to happen,which I believe will someday.Just hoping it's going to be sooner rather than later.
Good luck to all of us still holding.

[dominos3265 is a punk]

I think it just went up to quick. More buyers will come in and we will slowly come back up. Asian market did a shitty job, that is 3 days in a row now. Patience is the key to this puppy. The reverse is done and out of the way, union talks were successful, Stabilty is now coming back into play here. We have all the holidays around the corner which should be a nice boost. I would not expect alot from the 3rd quarter earnings sheet but at this point that does not even have any weight. I am still researching many things before I go friggin nuts on the IBox. Found many good things regarding Exp Jet.

[mtrewulf]

Thanks for taking the reins here dominos3265. I hope the crap market let's us get the mojo going again, we had a nice move going and now it's slipping back day by day.

[dominos3265 is a punk]

I am holding it for a bit. I feel lucky on this one. Even though it is down 12 cents right now, you have to sit, bite your nails, and wonder if it is people scared and wanting to sell or simple consolidation to bring it to some actual value. Being this is not a pk or bb stock, I have full confidence this will run back up to a higher PPS. Once this happens the MM's will be all over it.

[mtrewulf]

Funny, but, those manning the wheel, steer in a direction that credits or discredits, the will of the people. Jimmy Carter's character, should never be in question. If that's you criteria, then, he is at or near the top of the list. I count the resistance of the elite ruling class, as a signal of a good leader, not bad. They say jump, and expect the proper response. I seriously don't accept the suggestion that Obama is a pipeline politician. If he is, well, second verse same as the first, again. McCain and especially Palin are a NOGO. I have hope for this country, and I don't judge my choices with my net worth as the focal point. That, I believe is the problem holding this society back.

[downsideup]

Well, I'm about as cynical in regard to branded politics, regardless of the brand, as I am hamburgers. Had one at McD's lately ? Same trend. The cost goes up and the content goes down... and there isn't really much they can do about it.

Turns out more often than not that the world is what it is rather than what rabid partisans on either side want or need it to be.

McCain scares me less because I know what matters most... as you might have heard in Biden's recent speech in Seattle? McCain and Obama are BOTH still senators... and there is a reason we generally tend to prefer to NOT elect senators...

I don't find it any more useful to avoid rigorous DD in politics as other market functions... or to love a politician more than I love a stock. Similar risks attach to separating your reason from your attachment. Haven't met a President I thought really worth having occupy the space other than Reagan and Kennedy. Character matters. Particularly as politics becomes more intrusive and requires that you not allow yourself to be distracted by the words from what the hands are doing... it is worth noting that the brands aren't all that different than Avis and Hertz... so don't sign open ended contracts. Whoever gets the job... the shorter the period he thinks you work for him, instead of him for you, the better... and I mean that in the most menial sense, not the most eloquent or uplifting.

If you didn't follow the inevitable impact of Carter's policies, because you were blinded by... whatever it is you might be blinded by with Carter... you likely missed planning to buy the long term CDs at 20% as that problem worked its way out ? Etc.

Politics matters... but not because so many people mistake proper political behavior and choices for what they otherwise owe or commit only to their old Alma Mater on Saturdays...

[mtrewulf]

Well, we agree on some things anyway. President Obama doesn't scare me in the least. I will proudly stand once again as an American before the rest of the World, that, if they had a vote, would make this election even more of a blowout than it will undoubtedly be. Sarah Palin indeed! LMAO This Nation will, find it's TRUE Destiny AGAIN, if the peoples will, be done. Thanks for the fine posts regarding XJT, the political dissertation, not so much.

[downsideup]

Debate ranges around capacity cuts... one guy saying they are early on the curve to make cuts relative to past recessions, so should retain more than typical pricing power as they continue to cut capacity as the recession continues... Other guy saying its too early, not knowing how deep or long the recession will be. Both see long term attraction, disagree on timing.

Dennis Neal says he thinks they are on to something, pointed out that airlines and oil tend to trade opposite to each other... which is pretty much how I've been planning on trading XJT...

I've done OK with that, but, would have done better with other airline picks, as XJT has been so dominated by company specific issues, and has missed some of the industry moves... long term, you compensate for that will better upside, I think... but this trip from $1.09 to $2.25 wasn't bad. I did get lucky with GOL on a one day ride...

I'm still doubting that XJT has the legs it needs to climb back to where is "was/should be" on a split adjusted, post dilution basis... in the short term.

[downsideup]

CNBC talking airline stocks right now...

[downsideup]

I'm still looking at it for trading in this market...
Currently at the top of the bands and looking toppy. The airlines are all leveling off today a bit, even with oil prices down a little bit more, probably due to concerns about the larger economy, and a bit of looking ahead to OPEC having a meeting on Friday. OPEC intends to defend $80, but the Saudis really want $100 and they can make it happen.

Otherwise, the Dow hit bottom 10/10, since then has bounced up and down like a yoyo with volatility dropping a bit over the last week, but it has only traded sideways, while moving from below the bottom of the bands to the top of the bands on the other side...

Looks like we will test bottom again, soon...

Look at a 24 year monthly chart or a 10 year weekly chart, and it isn't all that clear yet that we've formed a bottom, instead of a pause... I think a lot of traders won't be expecting much more from this market until we are through this week... level off here with lower volatility, trade sideways, and the lack of enthusiasm is palpable. We still have a market that seems it is working hard on sustaining denial about the political risks in the possibility of electing Obama, which will likely be a cause for some long term reassessments of the potential for recovery, paired with new risks to key business sectors. CNBC put his picture up on a screen early today, and I watched 50 + points shed in a straightline of ticks... which ended shortly after they moved on to another topic. The market may have good reason to fear when Bernancke, Paulson, Bush, or Pelosi speak... but with Obama, all you have to do is show his picture. Don't tell the shorts...

[mtrewulf]

Wow, I'd be happy with half that.......but that's just me. LOL

[dominos3265 is a punk]

XJT will be a nice 10 bagger for me.

[dominos3265 is a punk]

XJT is in a forward moving position again after many days of nonsense. I see this hitting top 10's soon imo.

[mtrewulf]

you get no argument from this wulf.

[Ultra II]

It would be great if someone could take a few minutes and update the Ibox here so that it reflects some current news concerning ExpressJet. The SkyWest merger didn't happen and is now several months old news now.

Thanks

[Skidzzz]

To me, any green is good green. I hope this one keeps going up.

[mtrewulf]

Nice start this AM, up 5% to $2.29

[downsideup]

A good day in XJT, but my pick for a trade this morning was GOL... which is nice.

[downsideup]

Nice to see XJT up in a down market.

[downsideup]

Profit taking? New XJT phenom. At least, that is what the pattern today looks like to me. First time in a long while that it could be the pattern.

[downsideup]

XJT data at Yahoo is still a long way from reflecting the new reality... financial data lagging quite a lot from changes in real time.

It matters a lot that XJT will return to profitability, even if the potential for profit is currently limited in the economic environment. XJT has tremendous potential leverage in a couple of factors... new freedom to compete that didn't exist before doesn't really matter right now when the industry is flat... but could matter a lot when the economy turns up.

The reverse adds new leverage that didn't exist after the debt for shares swap. That swap eliminated about half the debt and provided a massive dilution, but it is done... and shares bought Thursday or Friday at $1.09 aren't hurt by that.

The cash position is an open question, given the hemorrhaging that has to have occurred recently as the restructuring proceeded. That XJT seems to be working through the issues well enough while still holding onto something like $50 million in illiquid "short term" investments (as bag holder) suggests that resolution of the financial meltdown in the larger economy, if it enables making those investments liquid again, could result in a windfall of something close to $2 per XJT share in cash.

[downsideup]

From $1.09 to $1.75 in three days ain't bad...

[stolibox]

volume surge with the news on labor agreement

[downsideup]

That's more like it... EOM

[stolibox]

she's lookin good now

[downsideup]

XJT is back into accumulation mode now, but today on a day when pretty much every stock in the market is up 5% or more, with 9:1 advances to declines, it isn't that impressive a performance here. The last three days, each with just over 200K shares in volume, shows that volume as pure acquisition, having retraced about 1/3 of the volume in distribution with the decline from $3 following the completion of the reverse. Still a fairly negative price trend, moving down with acceleration on light volume, not moving back up the same way on larger volume, but it does look like it is turning a corner and may be bottoming here.

[downsideup]

Wow. Dropped off a cliff in the last half hour. I got a phone call and missed the opportunity to reload after the last drop and pop...

[novicetrader]

OK,now that the R/S is out of the way,let's hope things get better from here on.

[downsideup]

Ready, ready,.... now.

[downsideup]

The ride from $0.16 to $0.30 was pretty good. Might be a new re-entry point coming up soon.

[Skidzzz]

Reverse split happening Oct 2. What do yall think will happen? Good or bad?

[downsideup]

Check a two year chart. Bollies tightening again on the monthly.

[downsideup]

August traffic up 17%...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/expressjet_traffic.html?.v=1

[downsideup]

New Form 4

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144331/000114433108000106/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml

[downsideup]

It has been walked back down to $0.25, where steady accumulation has resumed.

[downsideup]

Looking at it today, it looks like there are still plenty of shares from the conversion that may still come to market, albeit with a limit that will become more finite and well defined as accumulation continues and more filings pile up. The change in direction of the market for these shares seems it was driven by the recent filings showing that those shares that are coming to market are being snapped up by institutional buyers, which seems to have changed market perceptions of the dynamic. Sellers seem more reluctant, now, to push them out at whatever price the market gives them. Certainly the changes in the larger markets over the last few days have helped make XJT look like it is a pretty good place to have your money right now... with an uptrend just established, and turning the corner on accumulation vs. distribution seems it is supporting that turn.

Otherwise, the market situation that is hammering stocks generally right now is a timely net benefit for XJT... to the degree that it will provide a backdrop for negotiations with the unions that may encourage some greater flexibility, if not a rush to conclude a deal.

[mtrewulf]

Short Interest big decrease

ExpressJet Holdings Inc. $ 0.23
XJT -0.03

Short Interest (Shares Short) 3,552,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.6
Short Percent of Float 1.80 %
Short Interest - Prior 6,137,900
Short % Increase / Decrease -42.12 %

[downsideup]

Good sized order imbalance building in XJT today.

[frenchee]

Yes indeed--29% better!

[downsideup]

"The reverse stock split, as previously announced, is part of ExpressJet's continuing efforts toward improving liquidity for its stockholders"...

LOL !!!

THERE's the problem... Management thinks it is their job to facilitate efforts to liquidate the shareholders... ???

They'd obviously do better by their shareholders if they worried more about retaining VALUE for their shareholders instead of enhancing liquidity while destroying share value ???

In any case, this thing is pretty well following the time line, and tracking well along the path they laid out for it a few months ago, about as predictably as you'd expect...

There will still be some lag, I'd guess, as the per share valuation statistics take some time to catch up with the new numbers of shares in the financial media. The reverse split ought to help somewhat with the problem of the myopic perspective on valuation based on badly reported data, as the numbers of shares suddenly go from 200 million to 20 million... which, going from 44 million to 20 million shares, will immediately double up on the per share values from what was being reported prior to the dilution... with another bounce in reported valuation coming when the media reports finally get around to cutting the debt figure in half ?

[mtrewulf]

XJT looking much better today

[mtrewulf]

Does the R/S, if approved, activate the new price and O/S count immediately or after the cooling off period?

HOUSTON, Sept. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ExpressJet announced today that it filed a definitive proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Section 14(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 requesting shareholder approval for a 1:10 reverse stock split for its common shares. The reverse stock split, as previously announced, is part of ExpressJet's continuing efforts toward improving liquidity for its stockholders. ExpressJet will hold a special stockholder meeting in Houston, Texas on Wednesday, October 1 at 10:00 AM Central to seek approval for the transaction.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080221/NYFNSN01LOGO)

As a result of the reverse stock split, every 10 shares of ExpressJet common stock will be combined into one share of ExpressJet common stock and be traded under a new CUSIP. The reverse stock split affects all shares of common stock and stock options of ExpressJet outstanding immediately prior to the effective time of the reverse stock split. ExpressJet will pay cash in lieu of fractional shares, as required.

Successful completion of the transaction will allow ExpressJet to immediately return to trading on all NYSE Group platforms and return to compliance with the continued listing standards of the New York Stock Exchange once the six month cure period expires on January 18, 2009. The transaction will also allow ExpressJet to focus on completing negotiations regarding wage and benefit concessions with its unionized work groups.

After completing the transaction, ExpressJet expects to have 21,691,018 shares outstanding and approximately $68.5 million in debt remaining outstanding, primarily related to its 11.25% 2023 convertible notes.

[frenchee]

I got my fingers crossed!

[klonnie24]

Nice Chart, much improved since I looked at the last one. If it stays in the green paint today, Maybe a nice bounce to .30 before the R/S

[frenchee]

Daily and weekly charts of XJT

[mtrewulf]

Credit Suisse - 30,026,856 - 13.8%
Tradewinds Global Investors, LLC - 35,569,145 - 16.59%
FMR LLC - 3,750,380 - 1.729%
Quattro Global Capital, LLC - 25,676,095 -11.8%
Hayman Advisors, L.P. - 3,948,578 - 1.8%

45.719%

[downsideup]

Most interesting to me now are the changing patterns... in distribution, and in valuation statistics, and how changes in them show up differently over time in the financial media.

Before the exchange took place, there was already a fairly obvious trend in distribution, but the trend leveled off when showing around 33 million shares in distribution, back when there WERE only 45 million shares... obviously being shorted hard back then...

After the exchange, distribution resumed... now showing that almost 100 million shares have changed hands when there are still only 217 million shares. Shorter range charts are likely more meaningful, but a two month chart still shows 65 million shares in distribution in that period. Short ratio has been declining, from 8 million to 6 million in the last update... but the reporting there is still always well behind the reality. Other features on the Yahoo page also update less often, so that the shares outstanding was quickly updated to the current figure, but the debt conversion that made more shares show up doesn't show as a reduction in the debt... which means the enterprise value figures are wrong by that amount, etc.

Noting that those structured and predictable sets of variation in reporting exist predictably... they may in part define an obvious map of features in the variation between market valuation from the "real" values that are reported... ???
Does it matter in share price that Yahoo doesn't update debt numbers and enterprise value as rapidly as share numbers?

Combine the numbers we see in distribution, along with what has already been reported in new institutional holdings ? We know where 25.6% of the shares are now... which seems it is 55.55 million shares that are being held.

Still a lack of transparency here. The Quattro filing is reported as an investment advisor holding the shares indirectly... so, it still doesn't tell us who the owner REALLY is... only tells us who the owner is banking with ?

ARe the former note holders in fact selling shares ? They must be selling some as the volume is there ? Does that mean that what we see is former note holders NOT reporting their shares holdings from the conversion to the SEC by claiming some exemption related to conversion of one security to another... and the new holdings we DO see being reported are a result of buying new shares in the market ?

It looks to me like the key point to note here is that the market still pretty clearly has vastly more information that is made readily available to insiders than is made available generally... the lack of transparency deliberate... with share sales to longs at retail being reported immediately, while short sales are not reported for a month... institutional conversions and transfers don't show up at all so you don't know who the most influential major holders are... all while the fiction is maintained that the market does in fact provide a high level of transparency ???

We just watched as more than 75% of the ownership in the company changed hands... and you STILL can't tell who owns large blocks that constitute something more than half of the shares outstanding... and another large portion is similarly obscured... with the Quattro filing we know who HOLDS the shares, but not WHO they hold the shares FOR ???

[mtrewulf]

Interesting that these people are all of a sudden coming out of the wood work reporting ownership. Yesterday Credit Suisse 13.8 percent of ExpressJet. Maybe this thing might start moving!?!?!?!?

[mtrewulf]

AP
Quattro Global owns 11.8 percent of ExpressJet
Wednesday September 10, 5:53 pm ET
Quattro Global Capital owns 11.8 percent of regional carrier ExpressJet


HOUSTON (AP) -- Investment manager Quattro Global Capital LLC said in a filing Wednesday that it owns 11.8 percent of the stock of ExpressJet Holdings Inc., which is attempting a reverse stock split to keep trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
New York-based Quattro owns the Quattro Fund Ltd. ExpressJet operates regional flights for Continental Airlines Inc. It shut down its own branded carrier and flights for Delta Air Lines this month.

ExpressJet shareholders are scheduled to vote Oct. 1 to consider a 1-for-10 reverse split of common shares, a move designed to boost the shares over $1 to avoid a delisting.

The shares rose a penny to 21 cents.