Webinar notes (my opinion/comment at the end):
Twyerould opens with statement that this is the "greenest" copper project in the world. Nice, but the green we want is cash, Stephen.
States they are not producing due to the problems. Mentions Johnson camp. Puts up a slide showing green friendliness of the project
Talks to Triple Flag and other investors regularly, says they fully support the project. Believes they are heavily undervalued, due to the performance over the last 12 months.
Have 20 mil in the bank at the end of 2021.
Rob Winton Senior VP Ops and GM on site comes on, Discusses the site. Mentions the CO2 issue.
Slide showing new pre-feasibility study with CO2 neutralization plant (NP). 1.385b nvp 44.9irr; prepoduction cost 45.1 mil for the neutralization plant. Trials of this in late 2022; possibly could change the criteria and remove the NP and impact Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) restart.
DIscusses well stimulation as alternative to NP, type of fracturing but not same as oil/gas fracking; goal is to dilate existing pathways for CO2 to escape; requires an amendment to EPA UIC permit - estimate this taking months not years.
Discussed JCM open pits, 2022 PEA; 2-3 year mine life. From the slide he showed, at today's CU price the NPV is 27 mil. Capital costs would need to be reduced to make this happen. Updated mine design needs completion before board can make a go/no-go decision on JCM.
Discussed Strong and Harris property. Copper/zinc/silver, NPV 187 mil from PEA at CU $3.50/lb
Back to Stephen;
Shows slide with various goals - Update 43-101, drillling/permitting/design for JCM, S&H drilling, testing well stimulation and raffinate neutralization;
Preferred Path: JCM cash flow to support optimization of Gunnison.
Shows slide showing Excelsior's lousy stock value compared to peers, "because we haven't performed as well as we'd like to." Recapturing this value is "Our whole goal."
Q&A begins:
Has company discussed j/v or takeover? ST: We're not in discussions. We have large copper asset in great jurisdiction, heavily undervalued due to poor performance, in my view that does make us a takeover target. At these prices none of us would be excited about that.
What is plan for S&H? ST: drill some mag anomolies, eventually do infill drilling, convert from inferred to indicated, testing, PEA on open pit mine. Longer term asset. Current focus is entirely on JCM production start.
When will you know results of well stim plan? ST: test takes -1-2 months. Need EPA approval/UIC permit update first. Goal to get approval and complete trial/test by end of 2022
What's the cash burn rate, is a capital raise coming? ST: Likely need a capital raise at some point. Burn approx 1.2mil/mo Nebari willing to provide additional capital for JCM open pit.
What % of planned flow rates have well fields reached by now? ST: small % due to CO2 blocking injection. Water flushing is improving flow rates but doesn't produce any copper. They will cycle acid recovery and water alternately. Water limitations prevent doing this to the whole field. Neutralization path is the possible alternative.
Does the NPV on the open pit include the stream cost? ST: Yes
Has any of the Nebari 15m been drawn down? ST: No; subject to demonstrating open pit as worthwhile
How many people at Gunnison? RW: 50 on site.
Why was CO2 issue not anticipated? ST: We knew it would form, did some design mods during design phase to account for it, unfortunately the experts involved did not believe the CO2 would accumulate in bubbles of a size that would block flow. Impact was underestimated.
Technical discussion of flow rates/CO2/water/tech ensues, not going to recap point by point, starts around 45 minute mark if you're interested.
How long to build NP if needed? ST: 9-12 months
How confident are you that you will fix/get into production? ST: We're really confident. It's going to take time. Hard to talk about when CU is $4.60. Time is your enemy on cash flow and we want to capitalize on the high prices. We're confident we can solve the problems. Looking at other solutions like drilling more/smaller wells closer together to reduce CO2 distance traveled.
Webinar ends.
My thoughts--these are just my opinions, ymmv: I have confidence in Stephen Twyerould, but the time delays and risks are likely to take this stock down further in the months ahead. A price in the US $.10 range at some point wouldn't surprise me. A capital raise ought to happen sooner rather than later if I am correct.
To answer the OP, I don't think a webinar is going to move the stock price. Copper production nearing the stated goals is what will do that but it looks like we are as much as 2-3 years out from that now, which is really frustrating for investors who've already waited so many years. However, I would not put this in the category of many juniors which are just endless story stocks with no real value. Solving the tech issues will make this a legit producer and earn a profit for shareholders.
Question is how long do you want to wait? I'm underwater at current prices so options are take a loss or wait. For now I'll wait as the big players involved in this have a stake as well and I remain confident that management is serious and not playing us. I don't think anyone involved is ready to accept a lowball takeover offer.
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