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LAUNCH DAY 🚀
BREAKING: Spot Ethereum ETFs kick things off with over $1B in trade volume
eth
The Ethereum ETFs are live! 🥳
We’ve been waiting for this day for what feels like forever.
So let’s see how they performed.
But first, yesterday we asked for your opinion:
Would the initial flows into the Ethereum ETFs be over or underwhelming?
And 56.27% of you believe the ETH ETFs will be underwhelming…
Where’s the optimism guys?
poll response
Now, onto trading volume.
And the ETH ETFs started with a bang, doing over $1 billion in total volume on their first day of trading.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas was asked if this was a positive or disappointing day one.
And he simply responded with “Positive. Letter grade: A”.
EB tweet
So that’s total volume. But what were the actual inflows on day 1?
Well, the Ethereum ETFs saw $106.8 million in net inflows.
The large majority of the outflows were $484.1 million from Grayscale.
Here’s the breakdown:
BlackRock ETHA: $266.5 million 🥇
Bitwise ETHW: $204.0 million 🥈
Fidelity FETH: $71.3 million 🥉
Ethereum flows
These outflows from Grayscale seemed to catch everyone off guard.
We knew they’d be coming.
But we didn’t expect ~5% of the total fund to exit on day one. (Grayscale Ethereum Trust launched with ~$9 billion in assets)
EB tweet
Interestingly, the price of ETH is almost in the exact same spot as when the ETH ETFs launched.
At the time of writing, ETH is down 0.63% in the last 24 hours.
ETH
So far, this is all pretty positive for a day 1 launch.
Remember, Bitcoin’s price dropped for weeks after its ETFs launched.
Will we see the same situation play out with Ethereum like many were calling?
So far, so good.
So far so good - Things just got a bit wonky there for a brief period of time.
Over 3515-3525 tho, it will need to get.
To Clonk.....or NOT to Clonk.....
To Clonk.....or NOT to Clonk.....
THAT is the question....
Thing's looking like it's NOT Clonking because......it's ;
Do Or Die
Thing's not gonna go down without a fight
.
.
Crunch Hour
"Just knifed DOWN thru that support"
This is called "being in tune with the price action"
Day 1 ETF 's
Total Monkey Gong Show VERSUS HODLer PROPAGANDA !
Snake Oil Salesmen EVERYWHERE - Posting their vested interest "stories"
.
THAT’S THREE IN A ROW 🔥
The inflow streak continues!
For the third week in a row, digital asset funds saw net inflows.
Last week Digital asset funds saw inflows totalling $1.35 billion.
This brings year-to-date inflows to a record $19.15 billion.
total flows
You probably saw this coming…
Bitcoin saw the bulk of the inflows with $1.28 billion coming in for the week.
Ethereum has also been on a roll, experiencing inflows of $45.3 million last week.
This also makes Ethereum the altcoin with the most inflows year-to-date, overtaking Solana.
Speaking of Solana…
Solana and Litecoin saw significant inflows of $9.6m and $2.2m respectively.
flows by asset
Regionally, things were a little different this week.
The week prior saw inflows all across the board, but this time sentiment was mixed.
However, the United States did once again come out on top, experiencing inflows of $1.286 billion.
Switzerland, Canada and Australia also saw inflows of $66.3m, $7.8m & $3.8m respectively.
Germany, Hong Kong and Brazil all saw outflows of $5.2m, $1.9m and $1.7m respectively.
flows by country
We are well and truly back.
Isn’t it crazy how fast sentiment can change?
Just two weeks ago Bitcoin was hovering around $54,000.
And now we’re all the way back at ~$68,000.
And the Bitcoin ETFs have been monstrous over the last two weeks, with net inflows of $2.29 billion.
Plus the Ethereum ETFs are launching today…
Things are looking real good right now. 😎
TODAY’S THE DAY 👀
BREAKING: Ethereum ETFs Approved by SEC, set to begin trading today
ETH
Today is day we’ve all been waiting for.
The Ethereum ETFs are scheduled to begin trading at 9:30am Eastern Time on July 23. 🥳
This comes as the SEC officially gave its final approval for the Ethereum ETFs on July 22.
And was confirmed by ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
EB tweet
CEO of Bitwise, Hunter Horsley also posted the following to Twitter:
“Many of the largest tradfi asset managers in the world are launching crypto ETPs. It's one of the best things that has happened to the space. They bring a huge endorsement to the validity of this asset class to mainstream investors who were unsure. 2024 is the year Bitcoin & crypto enter the mainstream.”
Hunter Horsley
HH tweet
This is a big moment for Ethereum. (just as it was for Bitcoin earlier in the year)
And now that the SEC has officially given the Ethereum ETFs the green light, issuers have began marketing their products.
EB tweet
If you’re interested, click to watch BlackRock’s ad
Expect to see more Ethereum based ads in the coming days.
Finally, the day is here.
But - we want to hear from you:
Will the initial flows to the Ethereum ETFs be...?
Overwhelming 👍
Underwhelming 👎
Stay tuned as we’ll bring you all the latest updates regarding initial flows into these Ethereum ETFs.
Already done, not my fault you can't understand what a quote is. Try contributing instead of adding ZERO. You might earn cred.
That was properly quoted and displayed as such, You don't get to make judgements how that quote is viewed by others. NEXT!
ETHEREUM ETFs NEXT WEEK 🚂
BREAKING: Five spot Ethereum ETFs, including Fidelity, will launch on July 23
eth
Here we go!
Next week is finally the week we’ve all been waiting for.
The Ethereum ETFs are set to launch on July 23rd! 🥳
Exchange Cboe posted the following notification:
“We are pleased to announce that 1 Exchange Traded Product (‘ETP’) will be listed on Cboe and will begin trading as a new issue on July 23, 2024.”
Cboe
According to the notice, the following 5 ETFs are scheduled to begin trading next week:
Fidelity
Franklin Templeton
Invesco Galaxy
VanEck
21Shares
This notice by Cboe is standard procedure.
Ahead of new product launches, notices like these are always published.
ng tweet
In case you’re wondering why all the other Ethereum ETFs aren’t mentioned here, it’s because the others are listed on other exchanges.
Grayscale mini: NYSE
Bitwise: NYSE
Grayscale: NYSE
BlackRock: Nasdaq
ETH
Updated Ethereum ETF info
Only two more days to go…
In the next section we’ll be breaking down 6 reasons why Ethereum is set to explode. 🚀
WHY ETHEREUM IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE 🤯
The launch of the Ethereum ETFs is a game changer.
A supply shock is forming…
It’s the perfect storm…
These are just some of the latest insights from our very own Jamin Currie.
Eth
In our latest YouTube video (you should really subscribe if you haven’t already…) Jamin broke down 6 reasons you need Ethereum.
Let’s break them down.
1. What can we learn from prior cycles?
Historically, Ethereum has always outperformed Bitcoin at this point of the cycle.
2017 cycle: ETH outperformed BTC by 550%
2021 cycle: ETH outperformed BTC by 250%
Now that is only 2 data points, but you can see the trend.
And there’s nothing suggesting that this won’t be the case again.
“In our current cycle, we’re just after the Bitcoin halving. And it’s always at this point in the cycle to where the crypto market tops that Ethereum starts to seriously outperform Bitcoin.”
Jamin Currie
However, the level of outperformance from Ethereum has been diminishing.
So for this cycle, Jamin is predicting a ~125% outperformance. (over BTC)
As the saying goes: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.
2. The Ethereum ETFs are coming
As we mentioned at the start of this Newsletter, the Ethereum ETFs are launching on July 23rd.
And they are going to be MASSIVE.
One of the most underrated aspects of the Ethereum ETF approvals was the classification of Ethereum as a security.
That statement alone just de-risked ETH.
No longer does it have the dark cloud of lawsuits from the SEC looming over it.
But what level of inflows can we expect from them?
Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, is predicting $15 billion in net inflows for the Ethereum ETFs in their first 18 months.
“Over time, I think we see serious inflows into these Ethereum ETFs. And the market isn’t pricing this in yet.”
Jamin Currie
3. Supply Shock
Ethereum’s supply side dynamics are ridiculous.
For the past ~2 years, Ethereum has been deflationary at a rate of -0.132% per year.
This means no new supply has been created. (in fact the circulating supply has been decreasing).
ETH supply
ETH supply since The Merge
This is completely different to Bitcoin which currently has an inflation rate of 0.85%.
But, this gets even better when you consider the amount of Ethereum locked for staking.
Right now ~28.06% of the Ethereum supply is being staked. (effectively taking it off market and into the hands of long-term holders)
AND…
Exchange balances are also hitting all-time lows. (which we’ll dive into in the next section)
“If you combine this ever decreasing supply with new demand from the Ethereum ETFs, the laws of supply and demand suggest price only has one way to go…”
Jamin Currie
That’s an insanely good setup heading into the launch of the Ethereum ETFs.
And those are the first 3 reasons why Ethereum is set to explode.
For the final 3 reasons you’ll need to watch the full video… (sorry we had to do it)
It’s a banger. Trust us.
Plus there’s even a juicy Ethereum price prediction at the end that you’ll not want to miss.
Sympathy Rally
ETH ETHE ☝️🤑🫱KID ROCK DEVIL WITHOUT A CAUSE $5000 TARGET
😂🤣🕶️🤑👍 WOO🟨 WOO🟨 WOO WOOHOOOOOOOOO🟨
Put simply ; 64
Bitcoins' 64
Last night
Must add that THIS could play a role as well.......
Last night
1 month
Duh.....
$3420 ETH ETHE - AT THE HOP $5000 TARGET
1 HR LATER.......
1 HR LATER.......WHUMP !
Could /must be the aformentioned BTC 64,000 Show
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174757831
ETH - LoL
MONDAY July 15th
Monday July 15 9:45pm
July 4th
Friday July 12th
MONDAY July 15th
Do Or Die, 0,1,2,3
MARK THIS DATE DOWN 🎯
Ethereum ETF issuers have now resubmitted their S-1 filings.
But what happens next?
When will they launch?
This seems to be dragging on forever…
In his latest interview, Eric Balchunas explained exactly what’s going on with the Ethereum ETFs.
ebacl1
For those of you who don’t know Eric, he’s the senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
Eric has covered Bitcoin and Ethereum’s move into TradFi extensively, proving to be a trustworthy source of news.
Here’s what he had to say:
“The SEC hasn’t got back to issuers yet. But when they do, they’re going to give them a game plan. They’re going to say here’s the plan, you guys are going to send back your documents, we’re going to make them effective and then you can launch on Thursday July 18th. That is my new ballpark.”
Eric Balchunas
Eric is now predicting the launch date to be July 18th.
But in Eric’s opinion all the hard work has been done. The S-1 filings that issuers have been resubmitting have minimal changes.
We’re just waiting on the slow moving government to finalise these things.
“According to the issuers and people we speak with, these could have been done two weeks ago.”
Eric Balchunas
Eric was also asked to give a prediction on the amount of inflows we can expect once the Ethereum ETFs finally launch.
And instead of giving a flat number, Eric gave a range based on Bitcoin’s inflows.
Less than 10% = failure 😭
Greater than 25% = huge success 🤑
“Whatever Bitcoin [flows] is at after a year, if ETH is 10% or less it’s a let down. If it’s over 25%, I think it exceeds expectations.”
Eric Balchunas
ETF analyst James Seyffart also made a prediction on potential Ethereum ETF flows.
Here’s what James is expecting:
“So if you look at Ethereum, it’s 30% of the market. My base case is these things over the first year are going to take in 20% of whatever the Bitcoin ETFs do… I think they’ll take in over $3 billion.”
James Seyffart
Here’s the thing though…
Ethereum is a less liquid market compared to Bitcoin.
Which means a dollar into the Ethereum ETFs is likely going to be WAY more impactful than a dollar into the Bitcoin ETFs.
Fingers crossed Eric is right on his July 18th approval. 🤞
Etherium 0,1,2,3
Sounds good to me. cheers
Etheriums' ETF is reportedly imminent.......however, ain't this
.
WAVE OF DEMAND COMING FOR ETH 🌊
With the ETFs potentially launching next week, $15 billion is on the way for Ethereum.
That’s the latest prediction out from Matt Hougan.
Matt Hougan
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the 4th largest Bitcoin ETF issuer.
Every week, Matt releases a market commentary memo.
In his latest, he broke down why the Ethereum ETFs will attract billions.
When estimating potential inflows, a good starting point is the relative size of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin: $1,266 billion (74% of the combined market)
Ethereum: $432 billion (26% of the combined market)
“U.S. investors currently have $56 billion invested in spot Bitcoin ETPs. I suspect this will reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025, as these ETFs mature and are approved on platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.”
Matt Hougan
Using this $100 billion figure, ETH ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to reach parity. (Matt expects this to take ~18 months)
BUT, Grayscale’s ETH trust is converting to an ETF, bringing $10 billion in assets with it.
So this brings the required inflow number down to $25 billion.
It’s also worth taking a look at foreign crypto ETP markets.
Europe
Bitcoin ETPs: €4,601m (78%)
Ethereum ETPs: €1,305m (22%)
Canada
Bitcoin ETPs: $4,942m CAD (77%)
Ethereum ETPs: $1,475m CAD (23%)
It’s interesting that the asset split is almost identical between markets.
And roughly in line with the market cap breakdown above.
“As a result, let’s take down our estimate and assume Ethereum ETPs only get 22% of the market, matching Canada. That lowers our estimate of net inflows from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding the assets from Grayscale’s trust.”
Matt Hougan
According to Matt, a significant fraction of the US Bitcoin ETF flows are related to the carry trade.
The carry trade involves buying spot Bitcoin ETFs and then selling Bitcoin futures contracts against that position.
It’s a little complex but basically the trade profits from the fact that Bitcoin futures contracts currently trade at a premium to the spot price of Bitcoin.
If you’d like to learn more about the carry trade, click here.
Matt estimates that ~$10 billion of the current ETF assets are linked to the carry trade.
“For that reason we need to remove the $10 billion in carry-trade-related AUM when sizing the Bitcoin market. If we do that, the Bitcoin ETP denominator falls to $90 billion AUM. With this, our estimate for net inflows for Ethereum ETPs goes from $18 billion to $15 billion.”
Matt Hougan
However, this approach doesn’t touch on 2 key areas that could significantly impact flows:
Some are predicting the Ethereum ETFs to underperform due to no staking
There are multiple tailwinds behind Ethereum right now - stablecoins, regulatory clarity, Layer 2’s etc. A bullish wave could cause the ETFs to outperform
Regardless, Matt believes $15 billion in net inflows over the first 18 months is a good starting point:
“Still, I think $15 billion in the next 18 months is a good starting point. My gut tells me we’ll do better than that; ETH is a compelling asset powering the world’s most versatile blockchain. But even $15 billion in net new demand will have a dramatic impact on the Ethereum market.”
Matt Hougan
With Ethereum’s supply so tightly wound, $15 billion in new demand would be explosive.. 💣
IT’S FINALLY OVER 🏦
BREAKING: SEC to drop investigation into Ethereum — Consensys
Ethereum
The SEC has dropped its investigation into whether Ethereum is a security.
In a Twitter post, Consensys (developers behind Metamask) stated:
“The Enforcement Division of the SEC has notified us that it is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0.”
Consensys
Continuing on the post explains:
“This means that the SEC will not bring charges alleging that sales of ETH are securities transactions… [This is a] major win for Ethereum developers, technology providers, and industry participants.”
Consensys
This is MASSIVE news.
Consensys
This decision from the SEC came after Consensys sent a letter to them on June 7.
The letter simply asked if the SEC would drop its investigation in ETH as they recently approved spot Ethereum ETFs.
The approval of the spot Ethereum ETFs hinged on Ethereum being classified as a commodity.
So how can they sue Consensys for the sale of unlawful securities transactions? 🤨
It doesn’t make any sense…
However with the SEC being the SEC, they made sure to mention that while they’ve concluded this investigation, it doesn’t mean that there will never be an enforcement action…
Ethereum also jumped up ~3% as soon as this news broke, sitting around $3,530 at the time of writing.
ETH
This is a big day for Ethereum and all of crypto.
Hopefully the industry can now move forward without the the SEC suing every innovative company out of existence.
content spacer
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THE EASIEST WAY TO BUY CRYPTO 🤑
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With thousands of coins and various platforms to navigate, it's easy to feel lost.
But if you want to simplify the process and take advantage of dollar-cost averaging.
3 REASONS YOU NEED ETHEREUM 🧠
According to analysts, the Ethereum ETFs could launch by July 2nd.
That means investors need to be adding Ethereum to their portfolios now.
That's the latest takeaway out from Matt Hougan.
Matt Hougan
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise - the 4th largest Bitcoin ETF issuer.
In his latest investment memo, Hougan broke down 3 reasons why you should consider adding ETH to your portfolio.
Reason #1: Diversification
One of the first lessons every investor learns is to diversify.
Don’t own one stock; own a basket.
The same can be said about crypto.
It’s very hard to know exactly just how crypto will change the world, so the default approach should be to “own the market”.
Here’s how Matt explains it:
“Today, the market cap for ETH, the crypto asset that powers the Ethereum blockchain, is about $420 billion. That’s about one-third the size of Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion. The starting place should therefore be about 75% Bitcoin and 25% ETH.”
Matt Hougan
Reason #2: Bitcoin and Ethereum Target Different Use Cases
Bitcoin & Ethereum are not the same.
Bitcoin is the best form of money that has ever existed.
On the other hand, Ethereum makes money programmable.
Two very different use cases.
By having both Bitcoin & Ethereum in your portfolio, you cover all your bases.
“Again, it is early in the crypto revolution. That makes it difficult to know exactly which applications will matter over the long term. Adding ETH to your Bitcoin simply gives you broader exposure to what public blockchains can do.”
Matt Hougan
Reason #3: Historical Analysis Says You Should
Historically, adding ETH to your portfolio has boosted both absolute and risk-adjusted returns compared to BTC only.
The table below looks at the impact a 5% allocation to crypto has had on a traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds over the past four years, using both a Bitcoin-only and a split 75% BTC / 25% ETH strategy.
chart
The table makes 2 points clear:
Allocating to crypto in general boosted both absolute and risk-adjusted returns
Adding ETH exposure resulted in even higher absolute and risk-adjusted returns
Matt explains:
“You even get a smaller maximum drawdown despite the higher overall returns, thanks to the benefits of diversification.”
Matt Hougan
We think the writing is on the wall - adding at least some Ethereum to your portfolio is a no-brainer. 🧠
Smaller drawdowns and bigger returns? Count us in.
However - one thing to note is that Bitcoin dipped following the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs.
It then rocketed to new all-time highs. 🚀
We wouldn’t be surprised to see Ethereum follow a similar pattern.
HODL WAVES 🌊
Today we’ll be taking a look at the classic HODL Waves metric.
This time for Ethereum.
Each coloured band shows the percentage of ETH that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (blue being the oldest, representing coins having last moved 7 - 10 years ago).
This metric can also be used for short-term holders, but we’ll just be focusing on long-term holders today.
onchain
Here’s the breakdown:
6m - 12m: 14.60%
1y - 2y: 15.16%
2y - 3y: 16.41%
3y - 5y: 15.00%
5y - 7y: 10.55%
7y - 10y: 8.88%
That means that ~80.60% of the Ethereum supply has NOT moved for over 6+ months.
That’s an insane amount of the supply not moving. (even more than Bitcoin’s, percentage wise)
That only leaves 19.40% of the supply in the hands of short-term holders. (coins last moved within 6 months)
But there’s a reason why Ethereum has a larger percentage of long-term holders…
And that’s staking!
Ethereum holders are incentivised to lock up their holdings to earn rewards.
(learn more about staking here)
With the recent approval of the Ethereum ETFs, these supply dynamics are ridiculously good.
And when they launch, things could get a little crazy. 🚀
VANECK RAISES PREDICTION 🏦
BREAKING: VanEck predicts Ethereum will hit $22,000 per token by 2030
ethereum
VanEck believes Ethereum will hit $22,000 by 2030. 🤯
That’s a 487% return from todays price and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.8%
This price target is based on Ethereum’s significant user base and economic activity:
20 million monthly active users
Facilitates $4 trillion in annual settlement value
Overseas $308 billion in digital assets
According to VanEck, the launch of the Ethereum ETFs is arguably the most important step:
“We anticipate that spot ether ETFs are nearing approval to trade on U.S. stock exchanges. This development would allow financial advisors and institutional investors to hold this unique asset… and benefit from the pricing and liquidity advantages characteristic of ETFs.”
VanEck research report
Continuing on, the report explains:
“While maintaining its dominant position among smart contract platforms, we see a credible path to $66B in free cash flow to token holders supporting a $2.2 trillion asset, or $22k per coin, by 2030.”
VanEck research report
But $22,000 is only VanEck’s “base case”.
They also included price targets for their bull and bear cases by 2030:
Bull case: $154,000
Base case: $22,000
Bear case: $360
($360 - $154,000 that’s quite the range they’ve got there…)
VanEck also notes that Ethereum’s user base has been increasing at a rapid rate.
ethereum
Did you also know that Ethereum has has higher revenue per user than most Web2 businesses?
onchain
$22,000 does feel a little conservative…
But if $22,000 by 2030 is the case, you can’t really complain about a compound annual growth rate of 37.8%
As a reminder, the Ethereum ETFs have only been approved. They haven’t launched yet. 🚀
If you’re interested, checkout the full report here.
WOOHOOOOOOOOOOO ETH ETHE ☝️🥳🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💫⭐️
ETHEREUM READY TO LAUNCH SOON? 🤔
BREAKING: Ethereum ETF June launch ‘legit possibility’ as BlackRock files S-1
Ethereum
BlackRock has updated its S-1 filing for its spot Ethereum ETF.
Last week saw the approval of the 19b-4 filings, now we’re waiting on the S-1 filings - both need approval for the ETF to begin trading.
Expect more S-1 amendments to roll in soon as other issuers follow.
Interestingly, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that “end of June launch a legit possibility”.
Although he still believes they’ll likely go live after July 4th.
EB tweet
It’s important to note that this S-1 amendment isn’t the final version. It’s still missing crucial data such as the management fee. (likely to be revealed as late as possible)
But it’s close to the final version…
From this filing the ETF will trade under the ticker $ETHA.
ETF analyst James Seyffart also commented on the filing:
“This is almost certainly the engagement we were looking for on the S-1’s following the 19b-4 approvals. Issuers and SEC are working towards spot Ethereum ETF launches… I think it’ll be weeks personally. (We’re already one week in). The norm is months though.”
James Seyffart
The launch of the Ethereum ETFs is just around the corner.
We’ll keep you posted on any further updates. 😎
Bitcoin BONK BONK Richard NAAYFISH...
Never lose sight of your Blessings
,
Bitcoin BONK BONK Richard NAAYFISH...
Never lose sight of your Blessings
HOW HIGH WILL ETHEREUM GO? 🧠
Now that the Ethereum ETFs have been approved, there’s one question on everyone’s mind:
Just how high will Ethereum go?
Well, according to the work done by Julien Bittle, we have an answer.
$20,000 per Ethereum, by the end of 2025.
Jbittle1
Julien Bittle is the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI).
Global Macro Investor is the research service founded by Raoul Pal. It has one of, if not the best track records of any financial research service in existence.
Julien Bittle & Raoul Pal have decades worths of experience in financial markets & investing.
And It’s all culminated into a thesis they’ve named: ‘The Everything Code’.
This week, Julien & Raoul broke down ‘The Everything Code’ in a 2+ hour special. They revealed all the data & charts behind their conclusions.
In a nutshell, ‘The Everything Code’ is a theory that ever since 2008, all asset prices are correlated to liquidity.
We are in a repeating 4-year cycle, based around repayments on government debt.
This 4-year cycle is the same as the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle, the 4-year election cycle & the 4-year crypto cycle.
Essentially, it suggests that if you are able to accurately forecast changes in liquidity, you will be able to forecast future asset prices. 🔮
(obviously ‘The Everything Code’ is much more nuanced & detailed than that. We’d strongly suggest you check out the full breakdown here.)
So what does this mean for Ethereum?
Well, because we’re in a repeating 4-year cycle, Julien observed something.
We keep seeing repeats of price action over cycles.
“Current cycles are repeats of prior cycles. Because of this debt maturity schedule and the rolling of the debt.”
Julien Bittle
This repeating price action, can be observed in Ethereum in 2 places:
Ethereum’s current price action is playing out very similar to the
2020-2021 bull-run.
eth12
It also very closely tracks the early price action of Bitcoin.
eth22
Where does this suggest Ethereum will peak in this cycle?
A $20,000 Ethereum, by the end of 2025. 🥂
“I think we could hit a $20,000 Ethereum this cycle, into the peak in 2025. It's possible, just based on repeats.”
Julien Bittle
However, a word of warning from Raoul:
“It's possible just based on repeats. Now it may be different. It doesn't mean that we're saying: ‘Raoul and Julian think ETH goes to $20,000!’ We're saying: ‘Listen, just understand how this could play out.’”
Raoul Pal
Don’t take this projection to the bank.
However, if cycles just play out the same as previous cycles… we’re looking at a $20,000 Ethereum. 🍾
P.S Previous cycles didn’t have an Ethereum ETF…
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS NEXT 📈
No one expected that the Ethereum ETFs were actually going to be approved.
It caught everyone off guard.
That’s the latest out from Matt Hougan.
Matt Hougan
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the 4th largest Bitcoin ETF issuer.
Safe to say he knows a thing or two about crypto ETFs…
However, in his latest interview, Matt explains that even Bitwise was caught off guard by the Ethereum ETF approval:
“No one expected an approval a week ago. As issuers, we were not moving towards approval, we had effectively stopped work on developing materials around an Ethereum ETF because there had been no back and forth with the SEC.”
Matt Hougan
And just as ETF analyst James Seyffart noted, Matt also believes this approval was politically motivated.
Recently, there’s been a complete attitude change in Washington:
SAB121 reversal vote - democrats supported revoking SEC rule
FIT21 passing congress - 70+ democrats voted in favour
But what happens next?
Well now we sit and wait for the S-1 approvals.
Matt explains:
“There’s another document called an S-1… The role of that document is to explain all the risks and disclosures around any investment. That still needs to be approved… That process can take weeks, it can take months, it doesn’t take days, it does take a little bit of back and forth. After [S-1 approval] happens you should see these ETFs launch either a day or two later.”
Matt Hougan
Expect to see S-1 amendments flowing through in the next couple of weeks.
Matt also gave a prediction on the amount of inflows we can expect to see once the Ethereum ETFs launch:
“I don't think Ethereum ETFs will match Bitcoin ETFs. Could we get $5 billion in inflows by the end of the year? I certainly think that’s possible. Could there be significantly more in future years? I definitely think that’s possible. Will it be enough to drive Ethereum to all time highs? I definitely think that’s possible as well.”
Matt Hougan
Bitcoin ETFs did ~$13.6 billion in their first 4 months.
(keep in mind, this amount of inflows broke every single ETF record ever…)
Matt predicts that the Ethereum ETFs will do less than half but more than a quarter of Bitcoin’s flows.
And that’s against a market with no net new supply…
(Ethereum’s burn mechanism makes it deflationary in the long-run)
That’s a BIG deal. 😎
9 days later.....
9 days later.....
ETHEREUM HODL WAVES 🌊
With all of the Ethereum talk lately…
Why don’t we check in on ETH’s supply dynamics.
To do that we’ll be taking a look at the classic HODL Waves metric.
Each coloured band shows the percentage of ETH that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (blue being the oldest, representing coins having last moved 7 - 10 years ago).
This metric can also be used for short-term holders, but we’ll just be focusing on long-term holders today.
onchain
Here’s the breakdown:
6m - 12m: 14.30%
1y - 2y: 15.20%
2y - 3y: 16.89%
3y - 5y: 14.77%
5y - 7y: 10.78%
7y - 10y: 8.54%
That means that ~80.48% of the Ethereum supply has NOT moved for over 6+ months.
That’s an insane amount of the supply not moving. (even more than Bitcoin’s, percentage wise)
That only leaves 19.52% of the supply in the hands of short-term holders.
However, it does make sense that Ethereum has a larger percentage of its supply laying dormant.
Remember, ETH HODLers are incentivised to lock up their holdings for staking.
An advantage that ETH has over BTC.
With the recent approval of the Ethereum ETFs, these supply dynamics are ridiculously good.
You know what we’re about to say…
It’s just simple economics:
Increasing demand + decreasing supply = rocket fuel 🚀
ETH ETHE IT’S TIME AI-NAAFYISH
ETHEREUM Destination Earth 😁 Nucleus JAM ON REVENGE $5000 TARGET 🎯
ETH HOTEL CALIFORNIA
AI
