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Will this be the right shoulder? Or will it just be another roll down followed by a higher high? If we don't make a higher high, then I will get short and see what happens.
You mentioned testing the bears resolve. Damn Straight. I am coming to loathe the market. I can no longer bring myself to consider going long due to my pessimistic bias. However, I am being tormented daily by these rallies which I view to be insane, but how can they be insane when so much money believes the inverse?
You may be right, the 20sma may hold it down. I am just expecting a bit more of a test of the bears resolve. Good luck!
imo, the final piece to the puzzle -- or should I say house of cards:
Small Investors Who Panicked in March Now Have No Clue What to Do
The precipitous collapse that took stocks down almost 60% from their highs scared many small investors out of the market, says Jeff Mortimer, CIO of Charles Schwab Investment Management. And now, sadly, these investors have missed a massive rally.
So what should they do now?
Ease their way back into the market, says Mortimer.
Yes, it hurts to buy in at prices that are 50% higher than where they were when you ran for the hills. But the alternative--missing more of the rally--is even worse.
Call me nuts to think this but today I feel today might be wrong day to sell the QID, as I expect the market will selloff today at some point. Then again what the heck do I know as I have lost money on my QID position, but it is there as insurance on my longs if the market takes a sudden turn. Just my opinion.
Selling my QID in pre-market/open Wed. Will probably try and reset it higher, but just playing it as it goes. Gold and Oil look poised for another upleg, but maybe oil is more of just a fake, meanwhile maybe making a shoulder on the INDU for a head and shoulder top?
Schwab just announced they are offering NO commission Schwab index ETF's if you trade through your Schwab account. Right now they only have broad indexes, but I would think the day is coming where they will offer a pretty good line-up, maybe even some inverse ETF's. I would like to see Schwab buyout Pro-Shares and offer their ETF's for no commission!
Hopefully these things will trade with enough volume to make them tradeable.
thansk I'll check it out. I got to say, and maybe I'm too bearish, but I think 8000 will be seen in 2010. I really think this move from about 8k to 10k has been nothing but over-hype. There is no job growth, and the earnings are only there because the TARP. Once that is gone, its going to be downward escalator back to reality. HOWEVER, I don't think the March lows will be broken in 2010.
If we are going to see any bigger downside in the next couple months, Dow needs to crack and close below 9600. I think that would be enough to cause some technical damage plus get a little fear that its over.
I've suggested it before. You have to request a membership, but it is free. http://thechartologist.com/
It could be tricky, but I see the Dow testing 9000ish before Spring. It may take til April.
october expected to be the best non clunker month...
I think because the traffic in the showrooms kept a lid on the non-cash for clunkers buyers.
Can you recommend a board that is fairly active on the T/A of the major markets? One that is free?
What do you think about this pullback here? Start of something bigger or just another tiny blip and then another move up?
I'm kind of thinking there won't be much downward pressure until after the first of the year. I think lots of people will book their gains under the assumption that 2010 is going to be sideways at best and potentially down big if a double-dip occurs.
It's a pretty dead board. Not many people are all that interested in the topics discussed here, and if they are, they go to a board where people are constantly discussing their TA influenced trades. Probably should just retire this board, and post it on the boosher board. Boosher board is dead during the down turns, and that's when people tend to focus on this boards topic.
Is it only two people on this board? DOW fighting to not break its 50 day ema.
First time SP go below the 50 ema since July. I think at minimum a test of the 200 day ema is in order, which would be a 12% correction. If break below the 200, then you might see a little panic from the bulls fearing to give up huge gains to rapidly.
SRS still struggling below its 50 ema. I need a break up thru to give me confidence to buy.
PSQ looks to be breaking up through...tech is clearly overbought.
SEF has broken thru 50 for first time since MARCH!
But you are 100% right about it not being just a flush. Must punish the shorts on this too.
I did the same thing. Actually I was out of pocket almost all day yesterday doing "in-processing" paperwork, however, I thought your SRS idea to be a good one. If I had access to a computer I would have bought some. Oh well. Snooze you lose!
Yep, so far, I think I'm right. Yesterday was just a last ditch run to clear anyone thinking of shorting. I should have added to the position, but snoozed on it.
I think we will correct 10-15% from the recent tops. People are generally bearish. When that is the case, you can't go straight down. You have to burn the shorts forever, and then constantly remind them not to short, and when most everyone gives up, they let it tank. We shall see.
Today is the reason you can't short anything right now. BS market is what it is. Unreasonable, unrealistic hype. We should be in line for some sort of 10-15% pullback, no traction.
Yep. If it can bust up thru the 50 day ema looks damn good to me for at least 20% before hitting some resistance around 13.
I like.
Looks like we need to break thru the 50 day ema, and you will be proven correct. Check out the little head and shoulders top and subsequent failure on X. I'm not playing this short, but I sure should have been. I was long on this thing for 3 days up around 45-50, right when you called those other little steel stocks. I hadn't looked at it until today and it was set up for the perfect short after that right shoulder was formed. If you happen across any of these post on this board!
I start my new job in 3 weeks. Back on the payroll for me. This time its a govt job. If you can't beat the goons, join em.
Adding 5% QID@22.80. A 10% correction, at minimum, looks ripe.
I've just been sitting on my ass smoking this crack market. I can't bring myself to buy long and shorting is a waste of effort and $$ it seems right now. So while I sit, the value of my freaking US Dollar denominated holdings erode slowly before my eyes.
This is the desired effect the goons are driving for. No one wants to hold any cash right now, you got to buy simething, anything. Stocks, gold, bonds, RE, anything BUT US DOLLARS. I underestimated their ability to force this upon us.
I think the market will keep rallying into the end of the year now on lighter and lighter volume. Correction of worthwhile magnitude will occur sometime in 2010 when reality starts to bite again.
The market continues to prove its resiliency, however, volume trend is slightly downwards despite these new (or nearly new) highs. Looks like $$ is slowly making its way to the sidelines. I'm not short, but holding a short leash on my plays at the moment. It has been great to add to and pad the account nicely during this run, but perhaps in the not too distant future, it'll be time to protect those gains. Short term euphoria with dark clouds ahead, imo.
Buford T.>
I just don't have the desire to short this market anymore, but that is probably the best time to do it. I could see the SPX dropping back to 1000 over the next few weeks.
This gold move has volume...4mil already on gld.
hope gold movement decouples from the market because the market needs to go down.
factory orders (data released as I type) fell .8% and was supposed to be even at zero.
CREE going against the grain up 50 cents or so. that makes me feel like this pullback will just be a pullback and not a deep W on the broad markets.
Unemployment 9.8% sucks.
Non-farms payrolls sucked. 263,000 vs 175,000 expected
Factory orders at 10am is the only hope for a reversal....maybe at the 50sma on the naz @2030?
Sold QID at 24.00. Probably will regret it, but I just didn't hit a good enough entry to make this thing work. Lost 2.00 on this, made .85 on the previous, so really only lost 1.25, or about 5%. Not as bad as some bears who tried to short much earlier. I have no real sense of how the market will go. The 13ema has stayed above the 20sma for quite some time, and this will be the third test now.
Hey Mr. Prophet? you thinks the goons are done for awhile? Or they gonna keep primin the pump?
Perfect recipe for a correction. Data points. Up until this past week, about 8 out of 10 financial data points would be better than expected. This week and the end of last week, I bet only half were good. More bear than bull today, summarized below, the bull side says consumers will spend money this xmas and that homes are moving so their won't be a W bottom. The bear side is cyclincal, I think. Manufacturing moves in jumps and starts as inventories empty and fill and recharge.
disappointing jobs and continuing claims (continuing claims went down but due to expiration, meaning those people are hurting more now)
personal income and spending and core personal consumption were all up. (good for hopes of santa rally, if confidence comes back up after the recent drop)
ISM "manufacturing" and "prices paid" data at 10am pushed the market overboard.
constructions pending increased. (good)
pending home sales increased. (good)
didn't have an automatic stop, and keeping away from the box this morning means this FAZ posiion is hurting. Volume yesterday was scary low. Volume today not great either. WTF??
I appologize for putting FAZ on this board. I did it because I wanted to express my opinion of broad market last friday.
FAZ IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR LONG TERM HOLDS OR SLOW IRA TRADING AND I THINK SHOULD NOT BE ON THIS BOARD. ALL TRIPLE INVERSE DIREXION FUNDS ARE FOR NIMBLE MOVES ONLY.
I will only talk about this trade from here out on booshers or dooshers.
Naz futures gaining, now at about 1%.
M&A and partnership activity today is going to stop me out of this FAZ position this morning.
bought some FAZ friday morning.
Thanks! Should be a fun journey.
I think you should hold to 30!
I am hoping to get out of this position around 24.00. I have a limit sell at 24.00now. I made .85 on the previous short, so if I can get out around 24, I will keep the loss of trying to short this market to a minimum.
Up 1/2% almost daily. How bizarre. It's like a programmed mechanical rise. It appears to be emotionless. Only goons function without emotion because they have nothing to lose.
I have put on a tinfoil hat to keep the goons from knowing my thoughts...If I go into the sun too long, my head may turn into a baked potato. Anyone got any sour cream?
Do you ever look at fibonnaci's? If so, I note that the market has retraced 50% of it's drop from the recent high. It did the exact same thing in 2003 into 2004, 2004 started the year with about 6 months of drift down after hitting 50%. This was during the go-go years of merger mania and house flipping flim flam riches.
I expect the next 6 months to be similar to the first 6 months of 2004, only this time there won't be any turn and run-up. This time I think it will be stagnation for months and years that bleeds it down.
Yes, I think this matches what you say.
That stretch I'm hoping for may not occur though. We'll just have to see how the FDIC being temporary insolvent, and the looming hundreds of bank failures weigh on the market. Maybe the statistical recovery can persuade people that it is a problem of the past.
I think it's probably best to sit back and watch, for the most part, for the next couple weeks. Nothing is popping out to me. I imagine the market will go sideways, to down, but individual stocks that most of us watch can have there good days while we chop around.
No, trading is not my full time gig. If the market were always like it has been the past few months, then I could. Unfortunately, I see the past few months market being the last hoorah, and we won't see anything like it for at least 3 years. I think we might have one more good stretch of time, not like the last few months, but solid trading opportunities before it's over for several years. That stretch may last most of the next 8 months, or just be a couple of the next 8. It would be nice to have, but can't count on it.
Mr. Prophet? Do you like any sectors this week to probe into?
I'm outa shorts, all cash at the moment, generally favoring that market is down for the week. But the goons are still running the show, so it will probably end up. I might do nothing this week unless I see something really enticing.
Is trading your full time gig?
fresh highs on naz-s&p-dow and huge volume.
They say there is still a lot of money on the sidelines.
I'm tempted to short SPG again. Burned the last time, fortunately I cut losses fairly quick last time, as this bitch exploded up on me.
funny I think the continuous contract hod yesterday was 1022. the all time high was 1033. my target is $1333
Chart with ADX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27828276104
2155 right around the corner. just heard someone call into a TA radio show asking about 2150 as resistance on the naz... pretty funny because it shows someone other than me is looking at the 2155 level.
just saw info on bloomberg tv,
talking about regional banks and saw speculation about regional banks getting hammered on commercial real estate crumbling. argument was that regional banks have loan portfolios with a lot of local commercial real estate in it. everyone was waiting for commercial real estate to crash and the regional banks have lagged the big banks in the recovery, because the big banks had less exposure to local commmercial real estate. well those guys are increasing their short position.
2155 target on naz right around the corner:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40579542
CREE rich with cash for the next few years. Selling 11M shares an it still doesn't want to close the gap to 33. if this doesn't close, the comp 1800 gap won't close either. for a while anyway.
by the way, this is the first green day since they priced the offering so the selling may be over.
confident consumer + back to school shopping = good data = continued market updraft.
The August Producer Price Index came in with a 1.7% month-over-month increase, which is greater than the 0.8% monthly increase that economists, on average, had come to expect after the index posted a 0.9% month-over-month decline in July. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.2% month-over-month, which is a bit more than the 0.1% monthly increase that was widely expected. The previous month's data showed that prices had slipped 0.1%. Advance retail sales for August made a strong 2.7% increase. They had been expected to increase 1.9%. The increase marks a sharp upturn from the downwardly revised 0.2% decline that was registered in July. Excluding autos, retail sales were up a more modest 1.1% in August. The consensus called for a 0.4% increase. Still, the sales less autos figure marked a considerable improvement from the 0.5% decline that was made in July. Last on the list is the Empire Manufacturing Survey, which came in at 18.9 for September. That marks its sixth straight month of improvement. It was also better than the reading of 15.0 that was widely expected. Stock futures have improved a bit in the wake of the data, but they continue to point to a relatively flat start for the session.
Wilco.........et z
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Welcome to my suggested retirement portfolio trading board. This is not a board for discussing individual companies.
It is said that the average yearly return on the stock market, in the long run, is around 7%. The average yearly return captured by the general public is estimated around 4%
The goal of this board is to provide information that can help one outperform the stock market in the long run. The idea is to make more in the up years, and lose less in the bad years. The idea is simple, but the execution is not.
Current Allocation (Updated 3/1/09)
100% cash
Year to date Performance Comparison (Updated 3/1/09)
EPP=> 2.61%
S&P 500 =>-18.6%
Out performance => 21.2%
=> approximately
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=2888
Bear market/crash warnings Dec 07/Jan 08:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
Early Sept. 08 Warning:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
Setup call for QLD 38.20 purchase on 10/6/08
http://investorshub.advfn.com/
Position Data: ***=unrealized
Entry | Current Price | Gain/Loss | Dollars | Shares | Worth | Gain/Loss | |
QLD | 38.2 | 42.1 | 10% | 10,000.00 | 262 | 11030.2 | 1,030.20 |
QLD | 38.2 | 39.97 | 5% | 10,000.00 | 261 | 10432.17 | 432.17 |
QLD | 35.8 | 44 | 23% | 20,000.00 | 558 | 24552 | 4,552.00 |
DZZ | 32.3 | 35.36 | 9% | 5,000.00 | 155 | 5480.8 | 480.80 |
DZZ | 34.33 | 41.2 | 20% | 5,000.00 | 155 | 6386 | 1,386.00 |
QLD 10/14/08 | 37.92 | 34.74 | -8% | 10,000.00 | 264 | 9171.36 | (828.64) |
SSO 10/21 | 33.3 | 31.77 | -5% | 10,000.00 | 300 | 9531 | (469.00) |
SSO 10/22 | 29.1 | 29.55 | 2% | 20,000.00 | 687 | 20300.85 | 300.85 |
SSO 10/23 | 27.4 | 24.15 | -12% | 20,000.00 | 730 | 17629.5 | (2,370.50) |
SSO 10/28 | 26.2 | 27.9 | 6% | 10,000.00 | 382 | 10657.8 | 657.80 |
SSO 11/06 | 29.4 | 27.9 | -5% | 10,000 | 340 | 9486 | (514.00) |
SSO 12/3 | 24.76 | 23 | -7% | 20,000.00 | 808 | 18584 | (1,416.00) |
SSO 12/5 | 23.2 | 25.24 | 9% | 20,000 | 862 | 21756.88 | 1,756.88 |
SSO 1/23 | 21.93 | 24.33 | 11% | 20000 | 912 | 22188.96 | 2,188.96 |
SSO 2/5 | 23.05 | 24.3 | 5% | 10000 | 434 | 10546.2 | 546.20 |
SSO 2/5 | 23.05 | 22.75 | -1% | 10000 | 434 | 9873.5 | (126.50) |
*Disclaimer-All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the individual reading this crazy message board talking about trades. One should always do proper due diligence and determine the suitability of that investment for themselves and the people that depend on them for daily bread. You could lose all of your money if you purchase an opinion from this board. This board is for entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell anything.
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