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And to that I say .. Amen!
ESPR - how long to wait? You've raised the $64,000 question, in my opinion. Various people will pretend to have the answer, of course.
Even a price target, which I feel is a simpler problem, involves making a huge bet; because, as you know, the price moves around in response to a never-ending confrontation between buying and selling forces which arrive at random times and with random strengths. Exactly where these will move the price is anybody's guess, and that is why one of the dominant impressions you get as a trader is that very often prices seem to make no sense when you look at the related fundamentals. As a famous economist that we love to hate famously said: "the market can stay foolish for longer than we can stay solvent"
ESPR: the unresolvable timing issue. Thank you for your encouraging note and apologies for my late response. You make a good point that the waiting time to revenues is not news. And I would certainly agree that there is a very nice opportunity here if luck stays with the company through the third phase trial outcome.
The big unknowable unknown is where will the stock price be when it starts to take off in response to 'market' realization that sales of ETC 1002 are going ahead and this may turn out to be a blockbuster drug, despite the presence of alternatives in the marketplace.
If at the point of realization the price is trading at around 25 or 30, the best you could hope for is a doubling, in our new market environment. If it's trading around 50 then it would be reasonable to expect it would get at least to 80. So no matter how you look at it, from my viewpoint, the prospect looks very good for the company but exactly when to get on board is now the unresolvable timing issue.
If you've been to the horse races you know what I'm talking about -- so often the outcome of a race depends upon variables whose values become known only after the race has started. It is exactly this really of life that caused Long-Term Capital to fail and threaten the whole financial system in the process, despite having a staff rich with Nobel laureates and people with decades of market experience.
Cheers (or should I say as my mother would, "let us pray").
What or how long would you wait for? Is there a price target you have in mind where you come back in? And it seems that yesterday's downgrade had such a strong influence on the sell off but today's upgrade is not contributing what so ever. Thanks for your response.
ESPR: shouldn't we delay buying? The fundamentals do look good, and the market has crashed the price into a nice range; but look at the storm clouds around us: 10 year government bond yields in the USA and Germany, as well as oil, are saying "economic recovery on hold if not cancelled". IBB, XBI, and some core healthcare stocks have all had their long-term uptrend lines decisively crossed in the last few weeks (yes, the biotech bubble has burst).
The stupid market has pushed GILD, which has super fundamentals, down to a ridiculous price already. I think if I took the time to do a money flow index across the sector I would see that money's going out of the sector big-time these days. So where will we find the buying strength to push up the stocks that deserve to be at higher prices? That's why I'm thinking: "wait for now".
How did ESPR trade the last time Needham upgraded to Strong Buy?
Stock jumped over 10% on fairly heavy volume. Pretty certain there is a big short in this after the company put our VERY Positive Press a few days ago.... "Clear Path to Approval" Should see some solid short covering today with shorts well over 10% of 22.5Mil OS.
Last time Needham upgraded to Strong Buy went from 61.67 to 69.96
2015/08/10 61.67 69.96 59.70 68.29 2,265,003 68.29
Needham upgrades ESPR to Strong buy. Remember how the stock did after the last time Needham upgraded? Me thinks it's a good day to own shares of ESPR.
http://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ESPR/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits
Thank you for your very detailed and informative response. I do however still believe that at these levels this is quite oversold. Keep in mind at the levels of pps of $60's $70's, $80's and 90's the time frame for revenues were essentially the same while the prospect of FDA ruling was uncertain. I believe there is an opportunity here to make some money between 50's and 80's
ESPR: What caused the slump? Your question is always a tough one; because the price changes are outcomes of a tug-of-war between buying forces and selling forces, as you know, and multiple factors may enter as variables in the equation that generates the outcomes (price changes).
A cute way to look at your question is this: why did the selling forces win the battle so handily yesterday, and again today? Some of the negatives and uncertainties connected with the recent report on the FDA advisory committee meeting are cited below in this article:
http://news.investors.com/081815-767018-espr-stock-up-and-down-after-fda-update.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo
From a trader psychology perspective, I would note that the news conference that was just held has totally scoped market-moving news that might have come out of their September meeting. What do the big traders now have to get them excited about the stock until sometime in 2016? If there is very little, why not move your trading money elsewhere for now?
Secondly, in the best of all worlds the company seems to be about two years away from generating revenues from sales of ETC-1002. Even if I'm wrong by 50% (and is only one year away) that is still a lot of time with all the uncertainties facing us these days. So I can see the potential buying force sort of dissipating, and inpatient holders of the stock deciding that they now have all the news and so will move on for now.
Cheers!
Toxic company. ..STRONG SELL
So what do you think is causing the large drop today?
ESPR -- there was a news leak yesterday morning near 1030AM. The CEO briefly cited a leak at the beginning of the CC yesterday, to explain why they were moving so fast with the communications. Their communications manager did a great job, as did the CEO, in responding to the leak, in my opinion.
ESPR on a Rampage today! That was fun. Still holding a couple hundred shares. BOOM in AH!!!!! WOW!!! Well my Calls are sure looking nice for tomorrow
ETC-1002 will be the only one in pill form. That along I think is pretty huge. I'm not an expert on this stock by any means. Just going with a good gut feeling on a strong management team with a record of strong success with huge upside potential.
I thought they said they would publish something in mid September
After Praluent (REGN) and ETC-1002 (ESPR), are there other rival drugs for investors' interest in the cholesterol-reduction drug market? (I am excluding a long list of statin drugs already approved by FDA. I am assuming that Praluent and ETC-1002 are doing thigs inside the body that these older anti-cholesterol drugs failed to do. Is that right?) Thanks in advance.
ESPR clinical trial outcome report -- when is the next time window within which a trial outcome might be reported? I am fishing to find out when we might have another "Big Event" for ESPR. Thanks in advance for your help.
Monster day yesterday. Beautiful confirmation continuation candle of the Friday's green candle. Onward & Upward. Will be interesting to see the short interest report that comes out after 4 today. Looks to have been a lot of covering yesterday and expect more today IMO.
Needham & Company upgraded Esperion Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ESPR) from Buy to Strong Buy with a price target of $130.00.
Analyst Chan Messer commented, "ESPR shares have recently pulled back over regulatory concerns. Some investors feel that an evolution of thinking at the FDA about cholesterol lowering could result in a higher bar for approval and/or a more restrictive label for ETC-1002. We disagree and are more confident than ever that FDA will agree to a development plan targeting a broad based label for LDL reduction. Specifically, we believe the plan will not require a completed cardiovascular outcomes trial (CVOT) as a prerequisite for any patient population. We upgrade ESPR shares to Strong Buy and would use the pullback as a buying opportunity."
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Needham+%26+Company+Upgrades+Esperion+Therapeutics+%28ESPR%29+to+Strong+Buy%3B+Shares+Will+Rebound/10796334.html
Really good post I found about the so called "concerns" from 1 analyst:
Its amazing how much damage an analyst can do by suggesting a drug might have efficacy or safety problems. Statins & PSK9's have shown to cause a number of adverse effects.
1. - I knew the analyst was a joke when he failed to mention 1 of 4 adverse effects in the latest study was from a guy hitting himself in the head with a knife.
2. In the latest downgrade he compares TAK-475 to ETC-1002. That's a stupid comparison since ETC-1002 works upstream to statins & TAK-475 works downstream to statins & they both act on different targets. In addition what does it matter if ETC-1002 was less effective in combination with high dose statins? ETC-1002 is aimed at the stain intolerant population. TAK-475's development was stopped after Phase II due to elevated liver enzymes & nothing in ETC-1002's phase II studies indicate a similar problem. Less
I'll be a buyer around around $45 than easy double from there long term
Investor Conference Call tomorrow at 4:30. Stock is sitting at it's 50 week Moving Average and selling looks to have subsided. Higher high and lower low so far for the day. Shorts are covering and stock looks poised to go higher IMHO.
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESPR), an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-cholesterol) lowering therapies for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia and other cardiometabolic risk markers, today announced it will host a conference call and webcast to provide program updates and financial results for the second quarter 2015. The conference call and webcast will take place on Thursday, August 6, 2015 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
The call can be accessed by dialing (877) 831-3840 (domestic) or (253) 237-1184 (international) five minutes prior to the start of the call and providing access code 80104515. A live, listen-only webcast of the conference call can be accessed on the investor relations section of the Esperion website at www.esperion.com. A webcast replay of the call will be available approximately two hours after completion of the call and will be archived on the company's website for two weeks.
What's the next piece of news we should be waiting for that may add some clarity on this?
Unbelieveable. Glad I sold some when I did...
Filled Sell 100 ESPR Limit 97.2064 -- -- 11:28:27 07/24/15
Grabbed some options at EOD
Filled Buy to Open 5 ESPR Aug 21 2015 75.0 Call Limit 7.33 -- -- 15:41:51 07/24/15
Two schools of thought on today’s sell-off: #msg-115677340.
Think it's gunna get dumped again in the next 8 min
Hope your paying attention
Regeneron approval
Options up 100% and my shares up over 8% today. Sold half my options and a few shares. Gap up tomorrow?
What goes along nicely with a great chart set up? How about a fabulous filing and press release: (up 3+% Pre-market)
Esperion Therapeutics Announces Removal Of 240 Mg Partial Clinical Hold For Etc-1002
http://www.conferencecalltranscripts.org/8/summary2/?id=1827976
ESPR up 2.4% today with a nice chart set up.
If you have not had an opportunity to go to the Esperion website and listen to the CEO's presentation last month, you really need to do yourself a favor and take 25 minutes and listen and follow along with the slides. Go to the Investors button in the upper right hand corner of their website and go down to the 2nd option: Events and Presentations. Very informative and super exciting. More people die from Cardiovascular disease than anything else in the world and especially the US. This drug is the ONLY one of it's kind that reduces LDL bad colesterol without Statin. Nothing else like it is in development. 25 Billion dollar market and this drug will dominiate it. I can imagine in 5 years seeing a 500% return on investment as a very real possibility.
full disclose: I do own shares.
Here you had you opportunity today, did you buy ESPR again?
$ESPR recent news/filings
bullish
## source: finance.yahoo.com
Mon, 11 May 2015 21:02:34 GMT ~ Esperion Therapeutics to Present at the UBS Global Healthcare Conference
[at noodls] - ANN ARBOR, MI -- (Marketwired) -- 05/11/15 -- Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.(NASDAQ: ESPR) , an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral low-density lipoprotein ...
read full: http://www.noodls.com/view/F2E59BB3BC792EAF9B9CA3572562BEA15E5B87F4
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Mon, 11 May 2015 20:30:00 GMT ~ Esperion Therapeutics to Present at the UBS Global Healthcare Conference
[Marketwired] - Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. , an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering therapies for the treatment ...
read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/esperion-therapeutics-present-ubs-global-203000946.html
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Thu, 07 May 2015 21:08:17 GMT ~ Esperion Therapeutics Provides ETC-1002 Development Program Update; Reports First Quarter 2015 Financial Results
[at noodls] - ANN ARBOR, MI -- (Marketwired) -- 05/07/15 -- Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.(NASDAQ: ESPR) , an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral, low-density ...
read full: http://www.noodls.com/view/72F18CB54F36609458BDF92A73899F7915B57221
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Thu, 07 May 2015 20:20:33 GMT ~ ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC. Files SEC form 8-K, Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements a
read full: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/150507/espr8-k.html
*********************************************************
Thu, 07 May 2015 20:05:00 GMT ~ Esperion Therapeutics Provides ETC-1002 Development Program Update; Reports First Quarter 2015 Financial Results
[Marketwired] - Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. , an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering therapies for the treatment ...
read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/esperion-therapeutics-provides-etc-1002-200500856.html
*********************************************************
$ESPR charts
basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com
basic chart ## source: stockscores.com
big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com
big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com
$ESPR company information
## source: otcmarkets.com
Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/company-info
Ticker: $ESPR
OTC Market Place: Not Available
CIK code: not found
Company name: Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.
Incorporated In:
Business Description:
$ESPR share structure
## source: otcmarkets.com
Market Value: Not Available
Shares Outstanding: Not Available
Float: Not Available
Authorized Shares: Not Available
Par Value: Not Available
$ESPR extra dd links
Company name: Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.
## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=ESPR+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ESPR+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=ESPR+Industry
## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ESPR+Headlines
## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/ESPR/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ESPR+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/ESPR
DTCC (dtcc.com): http://search2.dtcc.com/?q=Esperion+Therapeutics%2C+Inc.&x=10&y=8&sp_p=all&sp_f=ISO-8859-1
Spoke company information (spoke.com): http://www.spoke.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=Esperion+Therapeutics%2C+Inc.
Corporation WIKI (corporationwiki.com): http://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=Esperion+Therapeutics%2C+Inc.&x=0&y=0
## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/ESPR
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/sec-filings
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=ESPR&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=ESPR
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ESPR+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=ESPR+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ESPR
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=ESPR
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=ESPR+Cash+Flow&annual
## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ESPR/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=ESPR+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/ESPR.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=ESPR
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ESPR/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ESPR/insider-transactions
## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/ESPR
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ESPR
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ESPR:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=ESPR
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=ESPR
$ESPR DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/ESPR
I sold today at the open. Was waiting for that $100 plus pop. $85s and sold at $105. Banked big. This thing trades great. On watch for 80s again :)
LOL!!!! LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER. My sale triggered today. $10 a share profit. :)
ESPR 92 looks like bear flagging on low vol. On a big up day for markets/bios, ESPR disappoints
like it also...but like ISIS better ... just completed phase 1 with 2x better results than ESPR...
I will be happy to get back over $100 for now. trades great though
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