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We have reached the point the market cap no longer makes sense
getting ready to load again?
START GETTING READY FOR NOVEMBER SEASON IS COMING
nice bounce getting ready for sell off once again.
An event is going to happen its just when, i totally agree with that statement. I'm glad you liked the article,, talk to you soon homework time.
I have been doing some contract work this week and kind of been out of pocket so to speak!! Great article and it does NOT surprise me. I wonder just HOW MUCH of that oil THEY have been stockpiling BEFORE they pop the top on that cool one, sit back and start laughing all the way to the bank?
I do feel most investors KNOW that this next RUN may be short lived BUT it may also reach levels we have not seen in quite a long time. Once again, I reiterate.......should a " event " of some kind around the globe happen, it could easily generate a feeding frenzy among investors.
That could range from anything such as a......hurricane, volcanic eruption, earth quake or any large unforeseen " event".......even an all out WAR between some of these countries.
The Middle East is and remains a hot bed in the world......just a big firecracker with the fuse lit.....IMHO! Most know it is just a matter of time.
Thanks for the update with that article. Maybe next week I will have more time to " catch up "!!
i agree with most of what you wrote. I posted the following today on twitter.... (We just got the first significant sign Saudi Arabia is hurting for cash http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-2015-saudi-arabia-hit-hard-and-withdraws-cash-from-funds-2015-9 …) I believe they can drop oil prices for another 2-3 years will they, not sure. the agenda seems to be to crash the small and big oi producers, the U.S.A. new producers, and go to war in Syria, so we will seee on that front. As far as ERF, if we hit the Dollar mark ,and lost the divi i would cry ,and check the #'s one last time for survival rate, and hope they could make it (I HATE HOPING)..
Starting to hit " my area of interest " now......
May have to start closely monitoring the PPS until Thanksgiving if this touches the LOW 4's. I may be grabbing a few more to ADD to my existing portfolio. $4.10 sounds like a good number to me....what do YOU think Cowboy?
Sooner or later OPEC will want to boost the price of oil.....that is a GIVEN in this formula. Just as everyone else likes to REAP a fortune for their efforts, GREED plays an important factor in their bottom lines and decision making. 1.8 MILLION BBL of oil in " oversupply " per day is a significant amount. Wonder just WHO is stockpiling all of that oil???
Guess now all one needs to try to figure out is HOW HIGH the cartel will let the price jump to, in their December meeting, over a few months AND what the " spike " in ERF's stock could maintain. Of course, that is an ASSUMPTION they are going to cut back. I would NOT be surprised to see yet another YEAR of this yo-yo of oil pricing.
You still think that $60 a bbl that everyone has been suggesting is still a realistic number? If so, what can ERF hold on to in gains at that price point? Any numbers anywhere on that?
If the DIVI doesn't hold up into Q4 of 2016 and pressure from the " cartel " still is in play, I do NOT expect ERF to be able to sustain the current business outlook that they have tried to maintain to date, especially if OPEC drags this into 2017. At that point, ERF could very well be a $1.00 ( or less ) a share stock.......JMHO!
As to ERF's past performance and PPS in the mid 20's, I personally feel those numbers will NOT be touched for a very long time and only with a RETURN of the full DIVI amount from the past along with a strong balance sheet.
Bottom line, OPEC is out to DESTROY each and every small oil company they can including putting great pressure on those doing FRACKING. So far, they are obtaining their goal(s). I have not really followed just WHO is buying up these small companies as they fold and I wonder just how many have been acquired by an OFFSHORE company???
Have a GREAT WEEK Cowboy!!
DIVI NEEDS TO HOLD NOW! ERF NEEDS TO HAVE CASH FOR 12 MONTHS MORE
Making money now nice call on the low
Almost hit the target. Ill pick up a few on Tuesday
agree 12 month outlook is the outlook i have. The tree shaking continues and the auctions get busier
Personally.......waiting for the low $4's before continuing to average down. The " yearly outlook " for 2016 may shed some light on expectations for investors but until OPEC gets " hungry ", IMHO we will gyrate in the range we have witnessed over the last 12 mos.
Ill be buying more here. averaging down nicely
yea i know exactly what you want but unfortunately the big players pay a lot of money for that intel. You need to be in the loop. Countries and corps pay big dollars for that intel. Maybe an insider can slip a pdf file out if your lucky.. IEA INTEL is as close as your going to get without paying. Scroll down for countries outputs https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/ a little math might get you close... GLTU
Already have that info. I am looking for what is STOCKPILED at " cheap drilling prices. " Just because it is being pumped and reflected as RESERVE OIL does NOT necessarily mean it is being sold at current pricing.
I truly think some countries ARE sitting on this " cheap oil " in very large quantities and waiting for the price to go up drastically. That is where you have the largest " bang for the buck " at!!! Just like stocks.....buy low sell high......pump low, sell high!
That is the data I would like to get my hands on but have never been able to find any reference to it. The best DATA that I have found to date is..........http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/energy-supply.php but it is fairly out dated data.
But as it shows, their is a TON of oil being " accumulated " by OPEC along with many countries. Now, if one can truly " believe " those numbers then obviously at some point, those RESERVES will peak out and then, IMHO I would expect to see a slump in production from some of the MAJOR PLAYERS within the Cartel and globally.
When that happens, I expect a short spurt ( rise ) and then steady climbing in the price per barrel as the " slump " continues. But the issue I have is are we REALLY seeing the accurate RESERVES data or not??? I am sure a TON of oil can be " hidden " in many ways and more than likely IS.
So, basically I am looking for that " how long " can OPEC sit on BILLIONS of barrels of stored oil at " cheap pricing " numbers and data??? I can find STOCKPILED & RESERVES info. BUT no way to find or calculate HIDDEN RESERVES, etc.!
They're still shaking the oil tree.. hope this helps http://peak-oil.org/peak-oil-reference/peak-oil-data/production-and-peak-dates-by-country/
Still LOTS of " what if " in the markets and I don't see any HUGE turn around on the horizon in 2015. OPEC still OWNS over 40% of the oil market and I do not expect that to change. Obviously some of the CARTEL are getting strained by the recent reports that have came out.
Trying to out guess OPEC is like trying to pick a lottery number winner. Until OPEC can squeeze every small oil company out of business, they will continue the gouging. I personally do not think we are their yet.
I am still not even sure if ERF or ANY of the other oil producing countries can outlast OPEC's price setting manipulations through 2016 OR beyond. Either way, I think 2016 will be a very interesting year for oil/gas as a whole.
It also seems quite strange that ERF's PPS structure has DROPPED to the level it is currently at today. It appears to me that the bulk of the MONEY has moved to another source of income. As they stated last year, 2016 appeared as a " drop dead " date for the HEDGES they currently had. At the time those were quite lucrative as I recall.....in the $95+!!!
Does anyone know the shareholder count from 2013, 2014 and current numbers?? Obviously we have lost quite a few investors.
I have been trying to find the numbers on the amount of oil pumped vs. what is being STORED for " future use " by some of the OPEC group. Keeping an eye on that will or should tell one just WHEN the lid is going to be taken off of the can of worms!!! Selling that stockpile of " cheap oil " at 100% or more is where the REAL MONEY IS!
ERF <<< We have added additional crude oil hedge positions in the fourth quarter of 2015 and for the full year in 2016 to help support the economics of the accelerated well completions. Our total crude oil hedge position in the fourth quarter of 2015, through a combination of fixed price swaps and option structures, is now 44% of forecasted net production after royalties, at a weighted average floor price of US$80.09 per barrel. Our total crude oil hedge position in 2016, through a combination of fixed price swaps and option structures, now covers 31% of forecasted net production after royalties, at a weighted average floor price of US$64.48 per barrel. With respect to natural gas hedges for the second half of 2015, we have NYMEX swaps in place for 49% of our forecasted net production after royalties at a weighted average price of US$3.82 per Mcf. buying a little more here
Many things on top of what you said are coming. We have the jewish day in Sept. hitting, we have rates coming, we have EU issues coming, we have u.s. debt issues coming and so on... Most commods are in trouble if they cant last 7 years. the wealthy corps will come, and buy them cheap. In oil the three way hedges will screw them, and the banks that hold the debt. oil will skyrocket, but how long can they hold is the issue. can they survive the wait????????.. ERF has a year in hedged oil on the books after that ???? no intel.. I think ERF needs very short term contracts to get them through these times until the oil raises back to over 90's and then get the long term contracts to debt ratio going again and start the dividend increases..
ERF can also go the way of bonds and get ready for the buying spree thats comming..
what do you mean watching september? you think rate announcement is going to put more pressure on oil prices than the IRan deal?
Im thinking the same thing, ive been loading quietly and building a nice position carefully. im watching the september month as im sure everyone seems to be.. Yellen may hit us all then, as well as the jewish holydays
That " tree shaking " may be starting it's upward spiral sooner than we all think!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bull-market-sight-brazil-151038870.html
May grab another couple K tomorrow a.m. as this may SPIKE again by Fri. or early next week if this plays out as I expect.
Your thoughts???
thanks Tim looks solid the whole way. they seem positioned to withstand the OPEC tree shaking going on..
Looks like it. I don't expect any large movements so play your swings or accumulate in the dips depending on your strategy seems realistic.
great action today, volume is still rising.
looking good
Ian did an interview on CNBC.
I hope ERF looks into shale operations in eastern US because OPEC is shaking the tree good and those three way hedges should start kicking in now.. Maybe they can pick up some cheap shale properties soon.
buying for the swing trade now
We are back in swing trade range
Offers more attractive value proposition in this range. Should be positioned well for eventually crude recovery.
Enerplus (NYSE:ERF): EPS of -$1.42 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.06.
Revenue of $255.36M (-31.9% Y/Y) misses by $15.83M.
excellent swing trade time
They say shale is over 50 years and oil sands 100 years
OMAN, the LARGEST middle east oil producer is going ALL OUT now according to current news. IMHO, OPEC can completely quit producing one drop of oil, sell off of the HUGE stock pile they are sitting on for YEARS TO COME and still laugh all the way to the bank while the oil supply slowly dries up along with the CHEAP PRICING!!
OPEC has ALWAYS controlled it since the 70's and WILL continue to control it for a very long time to come.
Question COWBOY......how much " shale oil " do you think their is and how long will it last, compared to just normal oil drilling production and recovery methods???
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256403-how-much-oil-does-the-u-s-have-in-the-ground-what-does-it-mean-for-investors
Theoretically, this document does a great job at GUESSING what their might be just hiding in SHALE. Since it takes considerably MORE work and expense to uncover this product, one would NOT expect the US producers to be exploring or wasting their time or money on this process UNTIL oil prices hit at least the $60+ range for an extended amount of time.
I also hope we DO NOT see any more tanking in the oil prices over the next few weeks. The CA explosion obviously made some people PERK UP but as we all know, that is only a very small BURP in the system and basically not noticeable.
i would like to know about portfolios... We seem to have found a range now.. Im hoping nothing crashes oil next week.. They are talking about 10-40bbl now hmmm
They appear to be " on top of the balance sheet "!! Just take a look at what some of the OTHER oil companies are doing for 2015. I see a lot of comparison in ERF to their outlooks.
Dividend reduction was not a huge surprise and it would not be out of the question in maintaining a strong balance sheet at this point.
One must PRESERVE CAPITAL by reducing spending across the board when any markets are like this. Once OPEC quits playing " flex their muscle games " with all of the GLOBAL ECONOMIES then I would expect it will NOT take long to get back to the status quo.
One must remember that the longer this oil pricing issue continues, the more TENSE those countries will be that have based their economies on the financial strength of the oil market.
At least a couple of dozen countries are now realizing the writing on the wall is for real and it won't be long ( 2nd or 3rd quarter....JMHO ) before we start to hear of major financial issues from some of them in the headlines.
dont know what that fella that said its going down is smoking, we beat expectations by .46, this is easily one of the best run energy companies out there
Yep. $ERF moving up! Bid is above current price.
great results, this is how a good management team works, you see the hedging program these guys have executed for 2015, best in class for sure, look for steady appreciation from here on out.
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PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE
Enerplus had another strong lead-off quarter in 2006 with both record production volumes and drilling activity. Our combined oil and natural gas production for the quarter averaged 85,392 BOE/day, setting a new high for Enerplus as a result of the ongoing strength of our operations in the United States and Canada. Our development program also achieved record levels in the quarter as we participated in the drilling of 289 wells (124.3 net) with a 100% success rate. We are well on track to meet our full year 2006 capital expenditures guidance of $485 million, having spent $129 million in the first quarter. The capital program concentrated on Bakken oil in Montana, coalbed methane in Alberta, tight shallow gas in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the Athabasca oil sands in northern Alberta as we remain focused on the development of our resource plays.
Cash distributions paid in the quarter to our Canadian unitholders totaled $1.26 per unit and US$1.11 per unit to our U.S. unitholders. This represents a 20% increase in distributions for Canadian unitholders and a 31% increase for U.S. unitholders over the same period last year and is a result of our increased production volumes associated with our acquisition and development activities and increased commodity prices. We were able to retain over $61 million to fund our capital development program resulting in a payout ratio of 71% for the quarter.
Throughout the first quarter realized oil prices were reasonably consistent, averaging 16% higher than prices in the first quarter of 2005. Realized natural gas prices however declined throughout the first quarter of 2006. This decline in natural gas prices is believed to be largely the result of significant gas inventory builds through the warm winter experienced in North America. Overall, we believe the long-term supply/demand balance for both commodities remains tight. Oil prices in particular are impacted by growing global demand and supply disruptions in politically volatile producing regions. In this regard, we have seen increasing oil prices on the world stage and a widening gap between the price of oil and natural gas versus historical averages. While we believe the current natural gas price weakness may prove temporary, the duration of this lower gas price environment will be dependent upon the ability of the North American supply/demand system to rebalance itself. At this point in time, there is a great deal of uncertainty around the direction prices will go, however, there do not appear to be any long-term supply solutions for either commodity.
We continue to move forward on the development of the Joslyn oil sands lease with the operator, Deer Creek Energy Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Total E&P Canada ("Total"). As mentioned in our annual report, Total filed an application for the North Mine and we commissioned an interim reserves/resources report from our independent reserve engineers. This report quantified the recoverable resource associated with the mining potential for the lease and when combined with our existing booked reserves for SAGD, results in a best estimate of total recoverable resource for the lease in the order of 2 billion barrels (300 million barrels net to Enerplus). The best estimate of surface mineable gross bitumen recoverable resources of 1.7 billion barrels recognizes the North Mine as well as other mining areas. We continue to move forward with the first commercial SAGD phase of the project and additional work is underway to further define the opportunities for both SAGD and mining development on this lease. Reserves will be booked to the various potential projects as we advance these projects and resolve outstanding uncertainties on specific project design and timing issues.
In February, we opened our new office in Denver, Colorado which is responsible for the day-to-day operation of our Sleeping Giant project in Montana. The office is also managing the development of our land base in the Williston Basin and assisting our Calgary office in the pursuit of future growth and acquisition opportunities in the United States.
On March 20, we issued 4.37 million trust units through an equity issue that raised gross proceeds of $253.5 million at $58.00 per unit. The issue was very well received by the Canadian marketplace and was sold on a “bought deal” basis. The net proceeds of the offering were initially used to repay outstanding indebtedness and will help fund our capital expenditures program.
The Canadian oil and gas industry continues to face many challenges, not the least of which is the shortage of skilled workers. Rising oil and natural gas prices have spurred the competition for qualified, experienced professionals and have added to the complexity of our business. In a proactive effort to address this future manpower issue, Enerplus has partnered with the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology (“SAIT Polytechnic”) to create the Enerplus Innovation Centre, a new centre in the Trades and Technology Complex that will specialize in applied research and innovation. In addition to increasing the number of student seats by 2,735 and apprenticeship seats by 6,000, 60% of the applied research activities will focus on oil and gas development.
We are well underway for another successful year in 2006 with strong production volumes, robust commodity prices, a healthy balance sheet and the most extensive development prospect inventory in our 20 year history.
Gordon J. Kerr
President & Chief Executive Officer
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