[FlatEarthSoc]

news: Encanto Potash Corp. announces First Nations and Metis Fund/Muskowekwan investment in Encanto

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/492851

VANCOUVER, Nov. 16, 2011

Trading Symbol:EPO.v

VANCOUVER, Nov. 16, 2011 /CNW/ - Encanto Potash Corp. ("Encanto" or the "Company") (TSXV:EPO) (OTCQX:ENCTF) is pleased to announce that the Muskowekwan First Nation ("MFN") through its development corporation Muskowekwan Resources Limited ("MRL") will be making up to a $3,000,000 Cdn equity investment into the Company. The First Nations and Métis Fund ("FNMF" see www.fnmf.ca) has approved and will be providing the financing to MRL, subject to the completion of the requisite legal documentation.

The equity investment will be effected by a non-brokered private placement of up to 13,043,479 Units (the "Units") at $0.23 per Unit to raise gross proceeds of approximately $3,000,000. Each Unit will consist of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one common share of the Company at an exercise price of $0.35 per common share for a period of three years from the date of closing. The private placement will be subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval and all securities issued in connection with the private placement will be subject to a four month hold period.

The FNMF is the first Aboriginal fund in Canada to make investments in Saskatchewan-based First Nations and Métis businesses. The mandate of the FNMF is to strengthen Aboriginal participation in Saskatchewan's diverse economy and to help create economic development opportunities and jobs for First Nations and Métis people.

The fund is administered and operated by First Nations and Métis Fund Inc., a corporation wholly owned by Crown Investments Corporation (CIC), a financial holding company for Saskatchewan's commercial Crown corporations. Westcap Mgt. Ltd. ("WML") provides professional fund management services and makes recommendations to FNMF on potential transactions. WML, Saskatchewan's largest venture capital and private equity fund manager with over $500 million under management, provides a wide range of investment banking activities to a diversified client base worldwide including institutions, retail investors, governments, and high net worth individuals.

MFN Chief Reginald Bellerose explains: "We approached the Company's management with the idea of MFN, through MRL making a direct investment into Encanto. As a First Nation, we're not only looking forward to the employment, royalties and education opportunities that the joint venture with Encanto offers our people, but feel that at this stage in Encanto's development, the direct investment offers the opportunity to strengthen the strategic partnership between MRL and Encanto as well as the opportunity for appreciation as Encanto moves toward building a solution mine on our lands."

Encanto President and CEO Jim Walchuck comments: "We're extremely pleased to welcome the MFN, through MRL, with a direct investment in the Company. I believe that this strategic investment by the MFN sends a strong reaffirmation of our joint commitment to see this great project through to production."

The technical content of this news release has been reviewed by Ross Moulton, VP of Exploration for Encanto, a qualified person as defined by NI 43-101.

About Encanto:
Encanto Potash Corp. is a TSX Venture Exchange and OTCQX listed Canadian resource company engaged in the exploration and development of potash properties in the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada, the largest producing region for potash in the world. The flagship Muskowekwan First Nation property has a recent NI 43-101 resource estimate containing 79.1 million tonnes of KCI grading 29.4% in the Indicated resources category along with 60.5 million tonnes grading 29.7% in the Inferred resource category (see the Company's news release dated March 18, 2011). These resources, based on the solution mining method, have the potential to substantially increase by adding additional acreage through a Treaty Land Entitlement process, currently underway. A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), based solely on the Indicated Resource estimate, was released in August of 2011 (see the Company's news release of August 18, 2011) and a further release of an expanded resource estimate is scheduled in Q1 of 2012.

[SPARK]

Some of the Biggest Names in Potash Are Now Lining Up To Speak With Encanto, Following the Completion of Prefeasibility Work at Muskowekwan

By Chris Cann October 19, 2011
http://www.goldeditor.com/wp-content/uploads/editorpdfsimages/11-10-19-EPO-Minesite-Some-Of-The-Biggest-Names-In-Potash-Are-Now-Lining-Up-To-Speak-With-Encanto1.pdf

A place on the Encanto Potash dance card is probably pretty hard to come by these days. The Toronto-listed potash developer recently turned its plans for a massive potash operation at the Muskowekwan property from big talk into a very real possibility.
And so, as is usually the case when a junior is faced with a large-scale development with capital expenditure numbers in the billions of dollars, it’s time to start courting wealthy suitors.
Encanto released the results of pre-feasibility work at Muskowekwan in August. The study looked at two different kinds of operation – conventional mining and solution mining. For those not familiar with the latter, it involves pumping hot liquid into the ground to melt the potash into a solution which is then pumped back to the surface.
Besides the benefit of safety in the solution technique – there is no need for an underground workforce – the overall numbers also look impressive when set against a conventional operation. The required up-front capital for a 2.5 million tonnes per year solution mine comes in at just over US$2.4 billion, while a conventional mine would cost more than US$2.7 billion for a smaller two million tonnes per year operation. What’s more, the mine life runs out to a possible 56 years under the solution mining scenario, and only 39 years using the conventional method. The only win for conventional mining is that the solution option extracts the potash at a lower grade, which pushes the operating costs up slightly. But the outcome is clear. The net asset value using the solution method amounted to US$2.86 billion, while the internal rate of return came in at 26.6 per cent. The net asset value using a conventional mining method is somewhat less, at US$2.35 billion, while conventional mining would generate a lower internal rate of return too. So, a solution mine it will be. Those extraordinary numbers offer some idea of the scale of this project and an insight as to why there is so much interest. But the story doesn’t stop there. Encanto has recently completed drilling over an area adjacent to Muskowekwan land roughly equal to it in size. According to business development consultant Gary Deathe, who has been working closely with Encanto, this is likely to double the resource base at the project. Assays are due back in the not-too-distant-future and Deathe expects an updated resource to be published early in the New Year. The additional acreage is subject to a Treaty Land Entitlement vote that was to take place in late November but this is thought to be a formality. Precisely how a doubling of resources will change the parameters of the operation will depend largely who Encanto ends up bringing into the project. But there are two clear options. One is to increase the throughput and production significantly. The second is simply to extend the mine life out by another 50 years. The fact that Muskowekwan is so flexible gives Encanto plenty of room for manoeuvre in its negotiations.
Deathe would not be drawn on speculation as to who the likely partner will be, but he did confirm the suspicions that
are already out in the market - that interest is intense. The project is of a size and scale that the suitors might come
in all shapes and forms. Encanto’s future partner could be a government body attached to India or China. Or it could
be a corporate buyer like BHP Billiton.
But whoever it is, Deathe said that the project will definitely be developed and won’t simply serve to fatten someone’s
resource base. “The only caveat for us is the partner has to put it into production, not into reserves”, he said. “The
First Nations’ main payout is on production and they’re scheduled to make about C$30 million a year or more on
production. That is our number one goal.”
Deathe doesn’t expect the partnership negotiations to be a drawn out process, given that there are several frontrunners
all keen to lock something in ahead of their competitors. For its part, Encanto has no reason to put the brakes
on.
With that in mind, it’s easy to speculate that full scale feasibility work and a partnership agreement might be
announced in the first half of next year. From that point on, it will take about 30 months to build the operation and
get it started. Add in to that mix a potash price that is on the rise, even as other commodity prices drop away, and
the potential of other projects in the portfolio to add further value, and it seems clear that Encanto is set for a very
interesting 2012.

[SPARK]

Nice day~

[JUST 10-11-12]

wow!

--should have sold my Allana for this one!
no, not really.


--have seen it go up daily for the past couple of months.

--nice going Spark, et al.

[SPARK]

Yeah..should be a fun ride~

[FlatEarthSoc]

up +13% today.. lookin good!

$0.255 + 0.03 (13.33%)
Volume: 1,293,875

[SPARK]

Nice volume on the Canadian side~

[SPARK]

Expecting some nice news~

[FlatEarthSoc]

nice day over here! moving in the right direction

[SPARK]

She's climbing~

[SPARK]

November should be climbing time for this one~

[SPARK]

In this, the third installment of ProspectingJournal.com's interviews with the parties involved in the partnership, Encanto CEO Jim Walchuck explains the potential involved with the partnership, and how advantageous to investors it would be to establish Canada's next producing potash mine. Along with the economic benefits of a potash producing mine, Walchuck explains his intentions to foster a healthy environment for the Muskowekwan people to live, work and thrive for generations to come. http://www.investorideas.com/news/2011/mining/10143.asp

[SPARK]

Encanto Potash + Muskowekwan = Next Producing Potash Mine?
October 12, 2011 by prospectingjournal · Leave a Comment
VIDEO – ProspectingJournal.com – After a busy summer that included the completion of two wells intended to expand its resources to the Northeast, Encanto Potash [EPO - TSX.V] and the Muskowekwan First Nation (“MFN”) are now looking forward to the newly rescheduled treaty land designation vote which was delayed due to heavy case loads at the Federal level. The EPO/MFN partnership currently awaits the completion of their drilling program, the TLE designation vote and release of a significantly expanded resource estimate over the coming weeks as Encanto continues its development of the MFN Property.
In this, the third installment of ProspectingJournal.com’s interviews with the parties involved in the partnership, Encanto CEO Jim Walchuck explains the potential involved with the partnership, and how advantageous to investors it would be to establish Canada’s next producing potash mine. Along with the economic benefits of a potash producing mine, Walchuck explains his intentions to foster a healthy environment for the Muskowekwan people to live, work and thrive for generations to come.
http://prospectingjournal.com/prospectingtv-encanto-potash-muskowekwan-potash-producing-mine/

[SPARK]

Watch this one climb soon enough~

[FlatEarthSoc]

Potash is going to have a big 4th quarter

[Max Power]

Great day here

[FlatEarthSoc]

Encanto Potash + Muskowekwan = the Next Producing Potash Mine?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/encanto-potash-muskowekwan-the-next-producing-potash-mine-2011-10-12

Oct 12, 2011 (ACCESSWIRE-TNW via COMTEX) -- VIDEO - ProspectingJournal.com - After a busy summer that included the completion of two wells intended to expand its resources to the Northeast, Encanto Potash [EPO - TSX.V] and the Muskowekwan First Nation ("MFN") are now looking forward to the newly rescheduled treaty land designation vote which was delayed due to heavy case loads at the Federal level. The EPO/MFN partnership currently awaits the completion of their drilling program, the TLE designation vote and release of a significantly expanded resource estimate over the coming weeks as Encanto continues its development of the MFN Property.

In this, the third installment of ProspectingJournal.com's interviews with the parties involved in the partnership, Encanto CEO Jim Walchuck explains the potential involved with the partnership, and how advantageous to investors it would be to establish Canada's next producing potash mine. Along with the economic benefits of a potash producing mine, Walchuck explains his intentions to foster a healthy environment for the Muskowekwan people to live.

VIDEO URL - http://prospectingjournal.com/prospectingtv-encanto-potash-muskowekwan-potash-producing-mine/

G. Joel Chury

••

[SPARK]

This is why we took the hit:
Encanto and the Muskowekwan First Nation ("MFN") also report that the treaty land designation vote has been rescheduled due to heavy caseloads within the respective Federal agencies having responsibility for this process. The agencies have now finalized the process and MFN has been advised the new voting date is Saturday November 26, 2011.

"The rescheduling of the vote is a purely procedural issue and certainly not contentious," states Encanto President and CEO Jim Walchuck. The information campaign to the MFN stakeholders was completed successfully and we remain extremely confident that we have gained the support and the trust of the MFN through this entire process."



VANCOUVER, Sept. 30, 2011 /CNW/ - Encanto Potash Corp. ("Encanto" or the "Company") (TSXV:EPO) (OTCQX:ENCTF) is pleased to report that the first of two (2) planned wells to be drilled in order to expand the resource to the northeast on the Muskowekwan Treaty Land Entitlement lands has been completed. North Rim Exploration Ltd., of Saskatoon is overseeing the drill program and handling of the core. The first hole was drilled to a depth of 1,245 metres and successfully intersected each of the Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, and Esterhazy Members. The core will be assayed and will also have engineering studies completed to determine certain cavern design and production parameters. The additional studies are necessary for the planned solution mine development. Drilling of the second test well will commence within days and is expected to be completed over the next several weeks.

Based on the results of these two holes, and previous 2D and 3D seismic work, an updated NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate is scheduled to be released in Q4 2011 or early Q1 2012 depending on assay turnaround time.

Encanto and the Muskowekwan First Nation ("MFN") also report that the treaty land designation vote has been rescheduled due to heavy caseloads within the respective Federal agencies having responsibility for this process. The agencies have now finalized the process and MFN has been advised the new voting date is Saturday November 26, 2011.

"The rescheduling of the vote is a purely procedural issue and certainly not contentious," states Encanto President and CEO Jim Walchuck. The information campaign to the MFN stakeholders was completed successfully and we remain extremely confident that we have gained the support and the trust of the MFN through this entire process." The MFN continues to keep their membership updated both on and off the MFN Home Reserve. Encanto is confident that the results of the vote will be favourable as indicated by the continued support of Chief Bellerose who was recently re-elected on a pro potash platform.

The Company and MFN look forward to the completion of the drilling program, TLE designation vote and release of a significantly expanded resource estimate over the coming weeks as the Company continues its development of the MFN Property.

Source: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/September2011/30/c8341.html

[FlatEarthSoc]

Potash and Phosphate Q4 Outlook

http://resourceinvestingnews.com/22791-potash-and-phosphate-q4-outlook.html

Despite debt burdens and weak macroeconomics threaten to derail the global economic recovery, the potash and phosphate markets are positioned to post a strong fourth quarter. The prices that producers have charged for both crop nutrients have rallied aggressively so far this year, with the biggest gains made in the third quarter, when producers were able to ink supply contracts with their largest customers, including: India, China, and Brazil.

Earlier this year, India and Canpotex engaged in a lengthy tug-o-war for prices. Eventually, India was willing to fork out the cash to purchase potash, despite earlier threats to take a “potash holiday.” In August, Canpotex, agreed to supply Indian customers potash at an average $500 per tonne for the last quarter of 2011. The deal extends into the first 3 months of 2012; however, prices will go up by $30 per tonne in the New Year. In the first week of September, PhosChem, Potash Corp (NYSE:POT) and Mosaic’s (NYSE:MOS) phosphate marketing arm, increased phosphate prices for the next 6 months by $65 per tonne.

The fertilizers are being supported by a robust grains market, with low inventories and high prices providing plenty of incentive for farmers to boost their yields, and the best way to increase agriculture output is to fertilize. Potash is currently selling for around $520-$550 per tonne, and for the fourth quarter, prices will likely see an increase in the range of $30-$50 per tonne, depending on the contract. Purchasers will shell out around $680 per tonne (including freight) for phosphate to be delivered in the fourth-quarter 2011.

Prices for both phosphate and potash on the spot-market should benefit from the same fundamentals buoying the contract markets. Inventories of both phosphate and potash are at record lows, and with farmers rushing to settle long-term contracts, the amount of material left on the spot-market is slim. Earlier this year, fertilizer market analysts warned that phosphate inventories were so tight that there may be delays for farmers trying to purchase phosphate on the spot market. Both Canpotex and BPC have already stated that farmers have already committed to purchases through the fourth quarter. There is even a rumour that farmers are already looking into locking down supplies for the spring 2012 planting season.

While it is fairly certain what potash prices for the fourth quarter will be, thanks to the fact that majority of potash contracts are settled well in advance, it is hard to determine, with the same amount of precision, how spot prices will react in the fourth quarter. That being said, global potash shipments are expected to climb to 58 million tonnes in 2011, similar to the previous peak in 2007. The rapid rebound in potash demand before production was able to ramp-up is the main reason behind the bull run in fertilizer prices so far in 2011. Low inventories have granted potash and phosphate producers plenty of reason to hike prices so far in 2011, and purchasers have been bearing these increases. There is no reason why this pattern should change in fourth-quarter, even though the global economic picture remains bleak, this does not appear to be impacting the agricultural sector.

Market participants should prepare for a very volatile spot market in the fourth quarter, due to stockpiles of various grains remaining at record lows. The primary obstacle faced by the grains market is that weather is a key factor in predicting supply. Now, with the markets needing “perfect yields” of grains, for a few seasons, before stockpiles will be able to build back up, any sign of bad weather can potentially send grain prices higher. Alternatively, perfect weather could cause a steep price correction. Fertilizers will mirror this pattern, as a great deal of the sentiment behind potash and phosphate relates to its use as a means to increase grain output.

••

[Max Power]

great news!! thanks flatearth

[FlatEarthSoc]

news:

Encanto Potash Corp. Announces Drilling Has Begun on Treaty Land Entitlement Property

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/428493

VANCOUVER, Sept. 21, 2011
Encanto Potash Corp. ("Encanto" or the "Company") (TSXV: EPO) (OTCQX: ENCTF) is pleased to announce that drilling has begun on Muskowekwan First Nation's Treaty Land Entitlement Property ("TLE Property") in Saskatchewan.

The 15,500 acre TLE Property is immediately adjacent and contiguous to the 16,800 acre Muskowekwan First Nation Home Reserve ("Home Reserve") where Encanto has drilled and cored five test wells resulting in the Company issuing a NI 43-101 Report ("the Initial Report") by North Rim Exploration Ltd. ("North Rim"). The Initial Report was announced March 18, 2011. Both the Home Reserve and the TLE Property are governed by a current joint venture between Encanto and the Muskowekwan First Nation.

The locations of the two wells were chosen to maximize the area of influence of the holes for an updated Mineral Resource calculation. An updated NI 43-101 report will be issued after the successful designation process associated with the TLE Property is completed. A map showing the location of the wells can be found by clicking on the following URL: http://files.newswire.ca/850/SCRP11020.pdf

Encanto President and CEO Jim Walchuck comments: "We're pleased to report that the planned drilling of two wells has begun ahead of schedule. The drill is currently turning and Encanto looks forward to receiving a new expanded resource calculation which will be released as soon as North Rim has analyzed the well results and prepared an updated NI 43-101 report. It's an exciting time for the Company and our partner, the Muskowekwan First Nation."

Drilling operations are being directed by Codeco Energy Group ("Codeco") of Calgary, Alberta. Codeco has contracted Ensign Energy Services ("Ensign") of Calgary, Alberta to complete two (2) wells to a depth of approximately 1,250 metres with the objective of coring the potash members of the Prairie Evaporite formation. The final depths of the wells will be approximately 60 metres below the Esterhazy Member. North Rim of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan will be on site to supervise core retrieval and shipment to their Saskatoon lab for processing. North Rim will be responsible for calculating the updated NI 43-101 compliant Mineral Resource estimate. North Rim has extensive experience in the resource characterization and preparation of NI 43-101 technical reports on potash resources having worked on Saskatchewan potash projects for such companies as Mosaic, Potash One and Athabasca Potash. Encanto anticipates receiving this new resource estimate in late Q4 of 2011 or early Q1 of 2012 depending on the assay results turnaround.

Encanto is also pleased to report that the Company has been invited to participate in a Global Chinese Financial Forum September 23 and 25, 2011, in Toronto. This is the leading conference in North America that facilitates cross border business opportunities with Greater China. First day activities include business matching opportunities such as M&A, financing, joint venture partnerships and private meetings, followed by a second day primarily consisting of a Financial Expo and trade show with further networking opportunities.

About Encanto:

Encanto Potash Corp. is a TSX Venture Exchange-listed Canadian resource company engaged in the exploration and development of potash properties in the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada, the largest producing region for potash in the world.

For additional information about Encanto Potash Corp., please visit the Company's website at www.encantopotash.com or review the Company's documents filed on www.sedar.com.

•••

[FlatEarthSoc]

More upside seen for fertilizer producers

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/more-upside-seen-for-fertilizer-producers/article2172884/

CIBC World Markets Inc. is getting more bullish on the long-term outlook for potash prices, believing that supplies will be constrained by the rising costs of building new capacity.

Analyst Jacob Bout raised his forecast for average potash prices over the long haul to $600 (U.S.) per tonne. While that’s up $50 from his previous outlook, it’s still slightly below the price where he believes most new global projects make sense.

Investment plans for the industry have surged in recent years, rising from $2-billion in planned projects in 2009 to $13-billion today. There are 40 development projects being considered today, compared to just 15 three years ago.

“We believe most greenfield potash projects will not be developed, barring a mining or processing breakthrough,” Mr. Bout said in a research note.

The biggest risk for the industry, he suggests, is demand. “The number one lesson learned in 2009 is that farmers are price-sensitive, and cut back on potash application the most out of all the nutrients” when prices for the fertilizer soar.

His revised outlook for the industry resulted in one rating upgrade and a handful of price target hikes.

[SPARK]

(ACCESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- ANALYSIS - ProspectingJournal.com - Upon returning from my latest site visit and video shoot detailing a partnership for potash in Saskatchewan between Encanto Potash [EPO - TSX.V] and the Muskowekwan First Nation (MFN), I was pleased to see that the relationship was healthy and the company is poised to make the gains I'd read about before the trip. Often we can glean from press releases that a relationship is mutually beneficial, but until you see the two parties interact first hand you can't be sure. As a former surface land man, I've seen plenty of less-than-ideal interactions between landowners and their potential lease holders, but when it came to interviewing EPO's President and CEO Jim Walchuck and the MFN's Chief Reginald Bellerose it couldn't be clearer that the two parties are comfortable and happy to be in business with one another. That said, my biggest lessons from the trip came from learning about the Muskowekwan First Nation. Visit http://prospectingjournal.com/potash-in-saskatchewan-encanto-muskowekwan/ for video interviews with members of the MFN. As our crew set up the cameras for the equipment and measured our light levels, I had a chance to walk around the school that stood as a pillar of hope in the middle of the community. Slogans adorned the hallways aimed at teaching mutual respect, quelling bullying and increasing self-esteem. But when I talked to the elders and to the people who came by to take part in our ProspectingTV shoot, I learned that these slogans might not be enough for the children who will someday be the next group of elders in charge of the community's stewardship. What I saw was a community in need of a boost, and a concern for well being that spanned generations. These people weren't just concerned about their current situation, but for the hopes and dreams of their children and the generations to follow. The elders were genuinely worried about what could be done to break the cycle of despair on the reserve that too often results in either their children moving away to far off communities for work, or staying and giving up hope. Through developing their reserve's ample potash resource, the Muskowekwan are poised to receive bountiful gifts from the land, not only in the form of royalties and infrastructure development, but in jobs and a lifted sense of self-esteem. There is plenty of potash in Saskatchewan, and the Muskowekwan sit right in the sweet spot surrounded by numerous producing mines. Given the recent release of Encanto's Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), which includes a plan for solution mining over conventional mining, it seems that the Muskowekwan people will benefit from this partnership for many years. The PEA was a company milestone for Encanto, as well as for the Muskowekwan people. It outlined a mine life of nearly 56 years, and that's not including the additional Treaty Land Entitlement (TLE) lands that would add 15,500 acres to the package and could possibly extend the mine life by decades. Whether or not these additional TLE lands will be designated for development will be announced after October 1, 2011. The vote will take place both on the Home Reserve near Lestock, Saskatchewan, and through mail-in ballots, under the authority of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development (AAND). Both Walchuck and Chief Bellerose are confident in the upcoming results, based on responses from preliminary meetings. Based on the responses I received from the people I talked to, the Chief and CEO were on the right track, and the message contained in the PEA should only help the situation. What the PEA delivered was a message of hope to a people in need of reinforcement. While solution mining lowers the overall manpower requirements, it will likely increase the opportunities for employment by First Nation members, with a roster of 320 full time employees scheduled to be needed. For the MFN this means more work available, while for EPO it means a higher NPV and lower Capex compared to conventional mining. One significant meeting was with Chad Owen Blind who waited eagerly throughout the day for his chance to weigh in on the potential of the partnership. Chad had worked in other parts of the province from general labour to night security, as well as moonlighting as a semi-pro wrestler thus proving himself more than employable off the reserve. A potash mine would mean that he could work near his home, sleep in his own bed, and be near his own family without going elsewhere to earn an income. There's plenty of mining related work for potash in Saskatchewan, but for Chad and others like him there's none currently near home. For Chad, the Encanto partnership represents a homecoming of sorts, and a vision of what his community could become. G. Joel Chury

[SPARK]

Why you think I'm buying all these undervalued potash plays...and phosphate!~

[FlatEarthSoc]

Potash prices could beat $650/t by end 2012

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/potash-prices-could-beat-650t-by-end-2012-2011-08-31

By: Matthew Hill
31st August 2011

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – As the supply-demand equation for potash continues to tighten, prices will continue to climb, analysts said on Tuesday, with one predicting they may even top $650/t by the end of next year.

“The average spot price of potash should climb to at least $650/t by late 2012 – perhaps higher,” Scotiabank economics VP and commodity markets specialist Patricia Mohr told Mining Weekly Online.

The price for the crop nutrient averaged $490 free-on-board at the Port of Vancouver in July and August, while Canadian potash marketing cartel Canpotex signed longer-term supply deals with India and China to supply them at prices as high as $530/t for some volumes.

Canpotex said earlier this year it had committed all of its volumes for the third quarter of this year and a large portion for the last quarter, as surging grain prices and demand incentivised farmers to apply more fertilisers.

“In the short term, you should expect prices to continue going up,” Northern Securities analyst Fadi Benjamin said in an interview.

While he said spot potash prices reaching $600/t at the Port of Vancouver would “definitely be a stretch”, they could “easily” add a further $50/t to current levels during 2012.

Toronto-listed Karnalyte Resources CEO Robin Phinney had a similar view.

“My guess is they’re probably going to stabilise in $550/t range over next year or two,” he said in a telephone interview, predicting that the world would have a potash supply shortage for the next 15 years.

Karnalyte aims to build a 500 000-t/y carnallite potash mine by the end of 2013 at its Wynyard project.

Benjamin noted that the market was different to 2008, when speculating distributors and dealers pushed the price of the fertiliser to nearly $1 000/t, and saw it promptly collapse during the recession.

“Everybody has learned their lesson, and they’re not going to drive it up again,” he said, comparing the 2008 price spike to the mania that drove the uranium spot price north of $135/lb in 2007, before it fell back to around $30/lb.

Mohr said prices that would cause demand destruction were still distant this time around.

“Prices are currently well below levels that would curb demand given high grain and oilseed prices,” she commented in an email.

Wet conditions in the US and Canada’s 2011 spring planting season delayed sowing, and a persistent drought in Texas has also held farm production down, keeping food prices high.

Benjamin agreed that current potash prices were not high enough to deter farmers in the high grain price environment, pointing out that potash applications only accounted for around 7% of total crop input costs.


•••

[SPARK]

Video shoot detailing a partnership for potash in Saskatchewan between Encanto Potash and the Muskowekwan First Nation

August 31, 2011

ANALYSIS – ProspectingJournal.com – Upon returning from my latest site visit and video shoot detailing a partnership for potash in Saskatchewan between Encanto Potash [EPO – TSX.V] and the Muskowekwan First Nation (MFN), I was pleased to see that the relationship was healthy and the company is poised to make the gains I’d read about before the trip. Often we can glean from press releases that a relationship is mutually beneficial, but until you see the two parties interact first hand you can’t be sure. As a former surface land man, I’ve seen plenty of less-than-ideal interactions between landowners and their potential lease holders, but when it came to interviewing EPO’s President and CEO Jim Walchuck and the MFN’s Chief Reginald Bellerose it couldn’t be clearer that the two parties are comfortable and happy to be in business with one another. That said, my biggest lessons from the trip came from learning about the Muskowekwan First Nation.

Watch the video here:
http://prospectingjournal.com/potash-in-saskatchewan-encanto-muskowekwan/

As our crew set up the cameras for the equipment and measured our light levels, I had a chance to walk around the school that stood as a pillar of hope in the middle of the community. Slogans adorned the hallways aimed at teaching mutual respect, quelling bullying and increasing self-esteem. But when I talked to the elders and to the people who came by to take part in our ProspectingTV shoot, I learned that these slogans might not be enough for the children who will someday be the next group of elders in charge of the community’s stewardship.

What I saw was a community in need of a boost, and a concern for well being that spanned generations. These people weren’t just concerned about their current situation, but for the hopes and dreams of their children and the generations to follow. The elders were genuinely worried about what could be done to break the cycle of despair on the reserve that too often results in either their children moving away to far off communities for work, or staying and giving up hope.

Through developing their reserve’s ample potash resource, the Muskowekwan are poised to receive bountiful gifts from the land, not only in the form of royalties and infrastructure development, but in jobs and a lifted sense of self-esteem. There is plenty of potash in Saskatchewan, and the Muskowekwan sit right in the sweet spot surrounded by numerous producing mines. Given the recent release of Encanto’s Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), which includes a plan for solution mining over conventional mining, it seems that the Muskowekwan people will benefit from this partnership for many years.

The PEA was a company milestone for Encanto, as well as for the Muskowekwan people. It outlined a mine life of nearly 56 years, and that’s not including the additional Treaty Land Entitlement (TLE) lands that would add 15,500 acres to the package and could possibly extend the mine life by decades.

Whether or not these additional TLE lands will be designated for development will be announced after October 1, 2011. The vote will take place both on the Home Reserve near Lestock, Saskatchewan, and through mail-in ballots, under the authority of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development (AAND). Both Walchuck and Chief Bellerose are confident in the upcoming results, based on responses from preliminary meetings. Based on the responses I received from the people I talked to, the Chief and CEO were on the right track, and the message contained in the PEA should only help the situation.

What the PEA delivered was a message of hope to a people in need of reinforcement. While solution mining lowers the overall manpower requirements, it will likely increase the opportunities for employment by First Nation members, with a roster of 320 full time employees scheduled to be needed. For the MFN this means more work available, while for EPO it means a higher NPV and lower Capex compared to conventional mining.

One significant meeting was with Chad Owen Blind who waited eagerly throughout the day for his chance to weigh in on the potential of the partnership. Chad had worked in other parts of the province from general labour to night security, as well as moonlighting as a semi-pro wrestler thus proving himself more than employable off the reserve. A potash mine would mean that he could work near his home, sleep in his own bed, and be near his own family without going elsewhere to earn an income. There’s plenty of mining related work for potash in Saskatchewan, but for Chad and others like him there’s none currently near home.

For Chad, the Encanto partnership represents a homecoming of sorts, and a vision of what his community could become.

G. Joel Chury
ProspectingJournal.com
Twitter: @GJoelChury

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Disclaimer: The host does not currently hold any shares of any of the companies mentioned in the video. However, some members of Cordova Media Inc. which owns ProspectingJournal.com, may or may not have interests in one or more of the companies mentioned at the time of publication. Staff members from the Prospecting Journal reserve the right to acquire interests in any of the companies mentioned after 36 hours have elapsed upon initial publication of this video. Encanto Potash is a sponsor of ProspectingJournal.com.

[FlatEarthSoc]

only gonna get better w/ new mouths to feed outpacing new farmland

[SPARK]

Yep this ain't a bad sector~

[FlatEarthSoc]

Potash, aluminum, copper continue to have promise-Scotiabank

full article >>> http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=134127&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Posted: Thursday , 25 Aug 2011
RENO, NV -

Scotiabank Group's Patricia Mohr Wednesday predicted potash prices will tighten next year "with onward growth in world consumption in the face of only limited new mine & mill capacity expansion."

...

Spot potash prices for overall sales in Southeast Asia and Brazil/Latin America are up 43% yr/yr, Mohr noted. ‘BPC and Canpotex are expected to announce a further increase of $30-$40 for the standard grade for Southeast Asia for four-quarter shipments, while prices in Brazil-a powerhouse in agricultural production-will likely rise by US$30-50 for the granular grade."

Both Canopex and BPC "are virtually sold out for 2011:Q3 and India has little stock on hand," she observed, adding that potash shipments will be available for India's Rabi [crops sown in the winter] season, which runs from October to March. Mohr suggested talks between Canpotex and Indian Potash limited-India's largest potash buyer--are probably underway.

Nonetheless, Mohr forecasts, "Supply/demand conditions should tighten further in 2012, with onward growth in world consumption in the face of only limited new mine & mill capacity expansion. Canada's largest producer will lead global mine expansion in the period through 2015, with 6.6 million tonnes of brownfield capability coming onstream."

"While the 1 mt expansion at Saskatchewan's Allan mine is scheduled to start up in 2012, it will take time to ramp up," Mohr cautioned.

••

[SPARK]

Canadian side seeing accumulation..~

[SPARK]

Shorts covered? http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=EPO&t=LIST&m=30101469&l=0&pd=2&r=0