Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Trending vs consolidating. In my previous post (link back) I showed that Thursday's price action was in a bearish trending day as noted by the target hits along with the 1.618 hits. I know that I called it Friday in the previous post, sorry.
On April 13 there was a bullish day with the 1.618 targets getting hit to the upside.
Then in the overnight session, we saw a consolidation phase where only the 1.27 fibs were getting hit in both directions.
Also the sharp reversal up right before the opening bell only went to the 1.27
Before the market opened on Thursday there were patterns forming inside of patterns.
Friday's action hit the intraday measured moves from the bearish flag and the bump and run patterns.
These patterns both had a decent formation time.
My first measured move on any trend line break is to where the trend line started.
It would have been difficult to actually hold the flag pattern short since it went into nice profits and then gave it all back, but the pattern hit it's target.
Then if the price action breaks below the bottom of the trend line, I like to use fibs for second or third targets at the 1.27 and the 1.618
If a market is in trend, often times the 1.618 will get hit, if the market is in a consolidation, then the 1.27 is often the target while the 1.618 doesn't get hit.
Friday all downside measured moves got hit, which was suggesting a bearish tone.
However now that the targets are hit, we need to see what developes next.
NDX wycoff price.
About 34-36 minutes into the video
Spy 4 hour chart
On a 1 hour chart it wouldn't surprise me to see a break below the green box and then a retest of the purple center line. Then go from there.
At the target zones start looking on 1 minute charts for patterns.
4 hour chart. On an ABC pattern I do look for a pullback into the .50-.618 level and see what happens.
So so far price is doing what I fully expected it to do.
Good video on a look at the big picture of the market.
The danger with the 5 minute chart right now is that there is a spike and channel pattern forming.
Soon price will be coming to the top of the channel and there is also a megaphone pattern forming as well.
The tops of both of these patterns will attract short sellers like a moth to a light!!!
That doesn't mean that it will fail, the crooks have way more money than we do and can continue to squeeze this thing for months.
Consolidation and trendlines.
There has been quite a few days where price was trading sideways for many days and eventually formed a trend line.
I like to consider a trendline valid only if it has had an interaction at least 3 different times. Then a break of that trendline is more significant IMHO
2018 had something similar
Current chart
Adam Khoo, good info on what rising interest rates do to the market
WKHS had an insider buy this month at $3.10
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425287/000142528722000037/xslF345X03/wf-form4_164746210312876.xml
I would really like to see this accumulate around #3 or lower for this year and
In 2008 the market quickly rolled over after the 1.618 was hit and a slightly new high was put in.
From what most chartists are suggesting it sounds like we will be more like 2000 where we had a 13.5% correction that gave an ABC correction and then did go on to two more new highs.
But after target 1 was hit it was an extremely up and down volatile market for another 250 days, or another 8 months.
If this all plays out closer to 2000, the next 60 days should be more bullish than anything, but after that it will be a much difficult time to trade.
The 50 EMA seems like it will be a decent place to look to buy the dips. And ultimately keep the 1.618 extensions as targets to any upside move
I am looking at late April early May for a target 1 around 4880
Then a pullback into the 50 EMA and ultimately on a most bullish case, I would look for target 2 around Sept/Oct between 5200 and 5500
Elliott wave, finally a wave count that I agree mostly with.
Go about 13 minutes into the video.
SPY 1 hour harmonic pattern and longer term trend line in yellow are going to be areas where traders would look to short the market.
I could see a pullback going into the weekend with everyone going short again and thinking that 3800 is the next target, but this is also a prime area to start the short squeeze.
Yesterday based on the closing price of the gap was missed by .04 but today they closed it and are now starting to deal with the overnight highs that were put in on the ES futures chart.
ES futures 1 hour chart. Again I don't recognize this as any specific reversal pattern, however there are trendlines that are fairly obvious where traders would look to short the market.
If the trendlines break to the upside, that would initiate a short squeeze IMHO
My best guess right now is that we will possibly see a bigger move start next week Monday with a gap one way or the other.
One possibility is that the green box on the bottom could be seen as a double bottom.
Follow up from yesterdays SPY chart.
Had a gap up and then filled a gap above, then went back to fill the opening gap from today and then reversed to fill a second gap above.
The blue trend line and the 50 EMA also got back tested and held as support.
There is now a potential break away gap towards the bottom that the bears need to try to fill, if they can't it would be a bullish sign.
The situation now is set up for the bears to short the yellow trend line and there is also a potential for a harmonic pattern that is short term bearish.
Ideally it would be nice to see a move up to finish the harmonic pattern and then a pullback down to T2 at the .618 which would be a place to look to buy.
The other option would be just to squeeze the hell out of everyone trying to short this.
I really don't recognize this as any specific chart pattern, however the current chart has a lot of similarities with this chart from the Sept- Oct chart from 2021
Obviously charts can break out either way up or down. The last time the chart looked like it does now, it broke to the upside and has a series of gap up days for about an 11% move off the lows in about 50 days.
$HGX is going down
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |