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Yeah, they mashed their quarter yesterday. I wish I'd skipped the park this A.M. and sold at the 52 week high. Profit taking is happening now. I'm playing IQNT hard lately too.
EGLE will come on down I think. DRYS and DSX reported a stinker quarter. That should get us some cheaps by association.
SPTN ...earnings out ? EGLE coming down now ......
I just finished riding my bike at the skatepark, I missed it too. SPtn treating me real nice on a down day.
Back in ? Still sitting at $4.25. Think I missed it.
my thoughts exactly.... was even thinking a bit lower..4.29. Pull back coming ??? Today was the perfect day for sideliners to jump into the market..and of course..it dives ! Just went 25% more into $ market...for now anyways. We will start to see an increase in the money market funds very soon as investors scramble out of this market. Might even see 2% returns ...yahooo. Better than flatline.
Just don't trust the MARKET at these levels.... 15% pull back, I'm back in.
We should get 4.50's today.
DRYS reports today. Have it on watch since every bulk shipper to date has beat on. We'll see.
Out again, come back $5's.
moo, cash cow. Check out IQNT announced they are serving up a HUGE dividend. It should get a pop before then.
Eagle Sinks On Inaccurate Reporting: Banks Need Shippers Badly
May 17 2013, 11:16 EGLE Disclosure: I am long DRYS, EGLE, NOK, BBRY, HIMX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)
Late yesterday, an article released on SeekingAlpha warns of the dark cloud that continues to loom over Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE). I disagree with the author's analysis as much of the information is outdated or the math is based on two different time periods, skewing the resulting outcome in favor of a short. For example, contrary to the report that Eagle owns 53 vessels, the company has stated in both the previous quarter and the most recent one that it owns 45 vessels with an average age of 5.9 years. This effectively concludes that the very first opening sentence of Lambros Papaeconomou's article already has inaccurate information. On the most current earnings reporting presentation, slide 17 states that vessel value (net) is sitting at $1.697 billion. Mr. Lambros Papaeconomou cites a figure of $882 million from December 31, 2012. Given it costs Genco (GNK) $545 million to acquire just 16 supramaxes (and Eagle posses 43 supras and 2 handys), how is his number even reasonable even considering depreciation? A close reading of the article also forces me to conclude the author has a limited understanding of the coal, cement, and grain industry and how they are macro drivers of the broader recovery in the dry bulk shipping industry.
Eagle is Not a Zero-Sum Game
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While it is true that Eagle is saddled with high interest payments and the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement requires a sweep of cash above $20 million each quarter, what the article fails to quote from the company's SEC filing is that the lenders "permanently waive any purported defaults" as a result of the original 2007 agreement and "no mandatory repayments of principal" is required until the Termination Date -- initially set at December 31, 2015 but extendible by 18 months to June 30, 2017.
In the comments section, one poster to the SeekingAlpha article says the Royal Bank of Scotland is the bank sweeping all excess cash. While initially alarmed, on further consideration, I am able to conclude that the banking sector in general needs the Eagle to survive very badly. From Form 10-Q's Exhibit Index, 10.8 through to 10.14, it is revealed that RBS is the lead arranger -- not the only bank involved in the loan arrangements. It is the primary agent for "financial institutions." I was pleased to note the use of the plural. While we are not given the pleasure of knowing the true number of institutions involved, the fact that Eagle's liabilities now stands at $1.17 billion (as of March 31, 2013), makes it apparent that should the banks fail to bail the shipper, they stand to see a realized loss of a magnitude probably comparable to that of the mortgage crisis. If one large shipper fails, confidence is lost on the other shippers and on the banking industry -- and the market will reel in shock.
The banks are effectively the Eagle's greatest partners and shareholders. Further to the above conditions, while the agreement is in place, the banks are taking 50% of any profits over $20,000 on a total of 8 vessels purchased by Eagle between 2010 and 2011. But consider this: the banks are further extending $20 million to the debtor to facilitate vessel purchases and sales during hard times. Also a part of the deal is the allowance for payments in kind. Beyond the principal, there is the allowance for a portion of the debt to be paid in cash or through the issue of convertible cumulative preferred shares. Convertible shares will allow the bank to take advantage of rising stock prices by converting from safe interest-bearing investments to equity -- and of course, further solidifying the banks' relationship with the Eagle's in the long run.
Married to Each Other Another 2 to 4 Years
The lenders are dependent on Eagle. The future of America's largest Supramax/ Handymax class shipping company is very important to their well-being. If the Eagle dies, the banking sector will go into another death spiral.
If the Eagle does well, the banks stand to be the biggest beneficiaries. While conducting my analysis, I view the fact that Goldman Sachs and the Royal Bank of Canada number as the top five shareholders as good news. There is more money on this from the big banks than first meets the eye. At number 2 and 4 in rank, they are in the red and definitely in for the long run.
Yesterday's big run up in share prices probably has two explanations: short covering and bigger equity stakes taken up by institutions -- especially financial institutions who have been painstakingly monitoring the situation and are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
The Reverse Split and How It Accelerates the Stock's Run Up
On May 22, 2012, the company completed a 1 for 4 reverse split, effectively reducing the number of shares outstanding from 63 million to 15 million. For short-term holders of the stock and those new to the stock, any negative information will cause a panic. When stops are hit, the share price will move down quickly as it is the shipper with the highest beta. For long-term holders (like banks and other institutions), the consideration is in the sweeter deal: any positive news will cause a large upward surge in price. With time on their hands, they can ignore all the negative noise. With the ability to force the company to renegotiate loan terms, banks have the greatest control on the game. All investors in the stock at this point should hold for the longer term.
If Santa Gives You Coal This Christmas, Rejoice!
It is probably unnecessary to look further than end of year December and early 2014 for a positive return on your monies. The dry bulk shipping sector is hugely dependent on coal, grain, and iron ore for its business. Cement, sand, steel, scrap metal, fertilizer, aluminum, and salt are some of the minor knick-knacks they transport. An overview of the cargoes shipped by Eagle released in the Q1 2013 presentation is as follows:
(Click to enlarge)
Source: Eagle Bulk Shipping
The expectation for coal's return to its heights is great given the economic recovery now under way in the U.S. and Japan. According to the World Coal Association, coal provides 30.3% of the global primary energy needs. It still generates a whopping 42% of the world's electricity. Furthermore, it is a keystone ingredient in cement, steel, and electricity production.
Recently in the news, the car manufacturers are announcing new plants and a focus on Southeast Asia. This plays nicely into the overall recovery in the transportation sector. The shipping industry is actually a laggard in this recovery process but also one poised to see share prices increase explosively by 20 times (when considering 2007 to 2008 prices of EGLE were $100+).
Given the reliance on coal for powering a recovery, and production levels in order of capacity are as follows, there is a great need for bulk shipping to move raw materials:
(Click to enlarge)
Source: World Coal Association
Referring back to the reverse split for consideration, given the magnitude of interest in Eagle in the last trading session, and the fact that there are 4 times fewer number of shares, in the most interesting scenario, this can become a $400 stock. While share price relationships are taken into consideration and prior prices are adjusted accordingly in the charts, what cannot be adjusted is the volume. If there was as much interest in the stock at its height -- and in shipping in general -- and now there are fewer shares, the effect on the stock price when considering volume can be astounding.
When the Eagle Soars, Wilbur Ross Wins
The Eagle is an indicator of the performance in the U.S. stock market. While I have traded various shipping stocks since last year, this one is by far my favorite -- my second is Dryships (DRYS), which is dependent on the situation in Greece. I have allocated a significant portion of my portfolio to depressed shipping stocks for the longer run. I also trade a portion for immediate returns. You do not need to take my word for it that shipping is poised for a comeback: someone with far more clout was touting the shippers back in early January. Billionaire Wilbur Ross is a distressed and value investor that actively restructures businesses. He has an eye for stocks with good turnaround potential -- and he loves shipping.
Wow. Heard a bing earlier and paid it no mind. My EGLE sold at 5.50 Wow, what a pop, now go back down.lol
If you got those 4.75's that would be a quick flip:)
I pulled back to 4.55. Worst case I can raise.
I want FLY at 15.95 or so. Worst case is I get stuck with their massive dividend:)
Yeah, me too, I have an order in at 4.75 too. Yesterday marked my 28th trade without a loss. I was feeling too damn froggy instead of playing like I knew I should.
still like $4.70-$4.75 range
I know.lol It's gonna have to churn some shares before it can hold. I could have flipped my 500 shares right out of the gate had I not been stuck with a partial. Didn't get the rest til later. Now I wait for lower fills.
support starting to fall.... getting closer
Yeah, EXPU is my last pink in my portfolio except been flipping one other in small $ amounts. I hardly ever play anything any more that doesn't have a divi.lol
Been burnt too many times on those plays. I like the cheapies , but not that PINK. Still sitting on 20M shares of GEGP for the past 3 years... got alot of volume this year.. but never broke .0001 !!! That's my lottery play. Waiting for someone to buy the shell ~ if and when that happens..... I could quit my job.
I must admit, SPTN seems to be making a bottom at 17 lately. I have accumulated 450 free shares over the last few years in it. Not bad, I still hold 600 long term. I like FLY, PACR, and IPG when they chill out a little more.
I've been flipping her hard between 16 and 17. I think the last 3 flips were 16.50-17.10 or so. Decent divi, not bad long and short term. I don't think it will go to $30 again soon because groceries seemed to be hovering at a lower market cap lately. Dean just beat their quarter and a few others. I think SPTN will too. If not I doubt it will go down, maybe just churn.
I got a partial fill this morning on a 500 order at 5.06, only 175 though.lol
1/8 of the entire float traded today. We need a down day in the market to spook it tomorrow and then scoop around 4.45.
Yeah, I'm with ya on that. I was going to play DSX today on the news too, but eagle spread it wings so far I didn't bother.:)
Ya know tomorrow it will be in the $4's again..... 95% SURE ... I'm waiting till it drops some more. Momma said big gap needs' fillin'.
I was eyeing those 5.20's earlier, wish I'd bought and sold again.lol
$4.80 maybe ... ?
I think it might get there....don't know if it will come back up though..... Gonna see profit takers coming in after lunch. Patience....
I'm waiting too, it'll be my third trip today, go egle!
Goes back to $5 again.... hop back in. Doubt it will get there.
OOOPS...YES.... On to the next one...wow.... crazy ! Generated at $5.46
So You are now out?
Setting it at $5.45 GTC.
GO BABY GO !
Busted thru $5 easy..
Should've waited a bit longer...
One would think that the BOLD line on this article about TRMD would relate also to EGLE, but I don't know if the tankers relate to the shippers
10:13 AM EDT, 05/08/2013 (MidnightTrader) -- Shares in Danish tanker group Torm AS (TRMD), listed on the Nasdaq, rocketed nearly 50% after the opening bell. It earlier posted Q1 results that showed its first return to quarterly operating profits since 2011, and it reported the best tanker freight rates in four years.
Torm, which faced possible bankruptcy until a restructuring and deal with creditors last year, posted a Q1 net loss of $16.3 million, much lower than the loss of $78.7 million for the same period last year and the loss of $580.6 million of the full year 2012.
The group reported a Q1 EBITDA of $36 million, its first operating profit since Q2 2011, swinging away from the loss of $7.1 million for Q1 last year and the operating loss of $194.5 million for 2012.
It said spot tanker rates on the various sized tankers were up between 20-30% or more in Q1 on the previous year.
Price: 1.86, Change: +0.61, Percent Change: +48.8
http://www.midnighttrader.com (C) 1999-2013 MT Newswires, a Division of MidnightTrader, Inc. All rights reserved.
EGLE crossed back above the MA(21)
Heading towards a new breakout around $4.12
EGLE CHART
ANAC may be next
I am out too. I had still had some 2.05's laying around, sounded like a good time to wipe my hands clean.
Just saw this, what makes you think they would declare a dividend in the red? Come join me in SPTN, divi, good flipper and last PR means upcoming $!
EGLE or EGAL? How do you know?
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This board's subject is fundamental and technical discussion about Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc., EGLE.
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company is engaged primarily in the ocean transportation of a range of major and minor bulk cargoes, including iron ore, coal, grain, cement and fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of December 31, 2006, Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. owned and operated a fleet of 16 oceangoing vessels with a combined carrying capacity of 796,663 deadweight tons. The Company carries out the commercial management of its fleet through its wholly owned subsidiary, Eagle Shipping International (USA) LLC. Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. expanded its fleet from 13 vessels to 16 vessels by acquiring the KESTREL I, TERN and JAEGER in June and July 2006, respectively. In August 2007, Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. announced that it has completed the fleet acquisition from the parent of Anemi Maritime Services, a private Greek shipping company.
477 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10022
(212) 785-2500
http://www.eagleships.com/
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2008 Results
http://www.eagleships.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=189576&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1261693&highlight=
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eagle-Bulk-Shipping-Inc-to-pz-15054442.html
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Best DD for all Dry bulk carriers can be found in the Dryships IBOX by Eastunder
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