EXACT Sciences Corp (EXAS)

[TREND1]

Profit/Loss = $ -114.4M

[TREND1]

Market Cap $ 8.66B

[TREND1]

EXAS MONTHLY

http://schrts.co/eKSQ3P

[DewDiligence]

EXAS, PFE ink 3-year co-marketing deal for Cologuard:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-pfizer-enter-u-100000808.html

Under the terms of the agreement, Pfizer will co-promote Cologuard with Exact Sciences beginning in the fourth quarter of 2018. Exact Sciences will maintain responsibility for all aspects of manufacturing and laboratory operations of Cologuard. Pfizer will share gross profits and marketing expenses equally above an agreed upon baseline.

[ranjo]

yeah looks very promising perhaps as much as a 1.5 bil opportunity on top of CG; next 10 days or so should be quite interesting as we have annual meeting Thursday and then earnings call aug 1 … i'm most interested in the guidance given on the call. I think we get to 1 mil tests in 2018. More color on liverguard should enable the analysts to start dcf model on its revenue. Liverguard will be a lot more profitable per test than CG.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS liquid biopsy for HCC shows promise:

https://www.biocentury.com/bc-extra/clinical-news/2018-06-05/exact-hcc-assay-significantly-better-soc

[lgonber]

Hello Dew, do you know what is the name of the company developing this test? is it a Taiwanese company? I could not find it. thank you

[just-for-fun]

Nice buy, I never got anymore.

[D_A]

Same here. Conference call sounded positive too. I stepped in and bought more today around 39.

[just-for-fun]

I thought the quarter and year were good, market doesn't agree ?

[DewDiligence]

EXAS -9% on Taiwanese liquid-biopsy test profiled by ASCO: #msg-137740680.

[TREND1]

*****Very good article IMHO.

11/21 Exact Sciences, We Bid You Farewell


•EXAS share price more than quadrupled since the beginning of 2017. Time to take profit.

•EXAS has generated losses since its inception and expects to continue to incur losses in the near future.

•EXAS is currently valued at more than 27 times price-to-2017-sales, rather pricey for the molecular diagnostics industry sector.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4126796-sold-cologuard-maker-exact-sciences?auth_param=1vat:1d18h27:bb41b36a79b3544547eed9f8b9a0cbb6&uprof=51#alt2

[TREND1]

***** Cologuard has no competition at this time.

It has the only FDA approved Colon Cancer test.

It is Medicare covered.

[TREND1]

Nov 16, 2017 video on cologuard

http://wsw.com/webcast/jeff108/exas/index.aspx


15 TO 20 % ARE POSITIVE.

Only FDA approved product.

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My GI is mailing me a Cologuard® after a visit.

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EXAS 30 MIN DAY WEEK

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Cologuard® revenue increased 158 percent to $73 million during third quarter

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NET LOSS FOR Q3 = -27 M

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The Exact Sciences team delivered another strong quarter with $73 million in revenue, 161,000 completed Cologuard tests and more than 10,000 new ordering physicians and other healthcare providers. The growth and enthusiasm of our patient and physician customer bases are helping us begin to achieve our goal of making Cologuard the standard of care in colon cancer screening.

Third quarter cash use totaled $21.7 million. Adjusting for the MDxHealth payment in the second quarter, cash use improved by $7.1 million on better-than-expected operating results and some working capital benefits. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $462.5 million.

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EXAS 30 MIN TREND DOWN

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EXAS DAY

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Earnings Per Share (EPS)= -1.63

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Float = 108.69M

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Profit/Loss = $ -167.21M

[TREND1]

EXAS WEEKLY 9 YEARS

[maxxam]

Hey DewDiligence!

Thanks for sharing, the GG forum is the Telecosm Forum, GG stands for George Gilder.

[ranjo]

bfost, I think we are getting closer to the roll out of system sales also I see on their website they are going after VA and other gov't systems obviously when the repeat business starts kicking in 250k+ per qtr will be very attainable beginning 3rd qtr of 2018 if not sooner. Quality metrics should start affecting numbers too... 100 pps doable in the next 18 months barring any hiccups

[DewDiligence]

My favorite biotechs now are RVNC and ENTA. I've posted about both stocks on #board-1418, as well as on these companies' stock-specific iHub boards.

What is the GG forum?

[maxxam]

Hey Dew (Biko), can you please share about any other interesting bio companies with potential in the next 10 years? I know you from the GG forum.

[bfost]

yup UPOD - beat and raise.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS always lowballs the quarterly guidance.

[bfost]

I'm a bit surprised by the strength of the move today as I was expecting 170-180k tests. But the margins were great and 175K should be an easy beat for q4.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS +8%/AH/to-ATH on 3Q17 results:

http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Cologuard-revenue-increased-158-percent-to-73-million-during-third-quarter/default.aspx

$EXAS Cologuard ramp. https://t.co/vIKYQY0pzg pic.twitter.com/XCx3PvvBDg

— Brad Loncar (@bradloncar) October 30, 2017

[DewDiligence]

Management has refused to say when they expect to break even.

Why does the for forward PE get worse than the trailing?

When the P/E is negative, a higher absolute value corresponds to a smaller loss, so in this instance the forward P/E is better for investors than the trailing P/E.

[r clarke]

What percentage of market does EXAS need to break even?

I see they are lost $140M so was interested in when they might break even.

Why does the for forward PE get worse than the trailing?


Trailing P/E -38.22
Forward P/E -67.33


Thanks for any insight, very interesting product.

[IronPantz]

I have it figured in the same neighborhood, about $120.

[ranjo]

I have this at 3.3 million test annually by 2020 with a PPS of $116

[IronPantz]

Poop in a can is gold in my pocket. Love this play.

[ranjo]

2% of the screening market should be able to get to 30% in the next 4 years. 40 seems pricey but I project this to be at 80 in 2 years based on 1.5 million tests completed at 75% GM

[stocktrademan]

EXAS buy 41.9068









normal chart




log chart

[DewDiligence]

EXAS +8%/AH on 2Q17 results (135K tests) and raised full-year guidance (470K—>550K tests):

http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Cologuard-revenue-increased-to-576-million-during-second-quarter-Test-volume-grew-149-percent-from-second-quarter-of-2016-to-135000-completed-tests/default.aspx

It was pretty clear that the old (470k-test) 2017 guidance was lowballed inasmuch as it would’ve represented very slow growth from the 100K tests performed during 1Q17.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS sells 8.05M* shares @$35.00—a 6% discount to yesterday’s close:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-announces-pricing-public-114600277.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[ranjo]

insiders sold in the 17's now in the 36's wth????

[stocktrademan]

EXAS buy 32.42

bull flag
long term reistance breakout and retest









normal chart




log chart

[Thirdeyeblind]

EXAS will be trading in the high 30S, 40's as the next qtr approaches. They are on track to beat estimates big time once again.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS -4% on bear piece by Citron Research:

http://www.citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/exas-final-a.pdf

[ranjo]

pank, I was being a smart arse ... people think they know why a ceo unloads shares turns out it was a poor indicator of what was in store for pps

[pankajanc]

Insiders keep getting lots of shares continuously, so that's not a big worry for them. The better the company performs, more the number of shares for them

[ranjo]

insiders sold in the 17's now in the 29's wth?

[DewDiligence]

EXAS—(+27%)—raised 2017 guidance big-league:

http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Cologuard-growth-accelerates-to-484-million-in-revenue-during-first-quarter-volume-grows-150-percent-year-over-year-to-100000-completed-tests/default.aspx

• Revenue guidance raised to $195-205 million for 2017, from $170-180 million [the prior 2017 guidance];

• Guidance for completed Cologuard tests increased to at least 470,000 tests, from at least 415,000 [the prior 2017 guidance].

Although EXAS is not yet profitable, the business is slowly but surely growing into the stock’s (somewhat lofty) valuation. I think Cologuard is a fine product.