EXACT Sciences Corp (EXAS)

[ArtieB]

Listening to the CC. No change to Cologuard, no change to business plan. Only change the product language and re-submit. Looks WAY OVERSOLD and an OVER-REACTION.

VC

[TheFinalCD]

MAYBE UP IN DOG TURD CANNON

[MWM]

EXAS bought some Jan $15 Call Leaps, good buy down here imo!

Very Cheap!

[dog turd cannon]

For what? It was a great short.

[TheFinalCD]

SORRY FOLKS

[zj3001]

The rating is an A. It's not the gold standard, but it has never been....yet. The grow of the company is strong, and was never dependent on this rating. Sure, maybe some were hoping for it, but that doesn't change growth already in place. Only way to tell if growth is effected is to look at 15Q4 and 16Q1 now that rating has been drafted....assuming draft is finalized as written. I am a buyer for sure around this level. Might wait a week or two for the shorts to exercise their options. I'm guessing they are going to blow their load by 10/16, and we will be going back up. Might not be $25+ a share again until after 16Q1

[DewDiligence]

I will listen to this morning’s CC before commenting further.

[gixxer11]

Buying opp or value trap ? Hmmmm

[sorkin]

USPTF 2016 draft guidelines included this as an alternative method for colorectal cancer screening tool- That is good!
Pps should recover

[Jld3294]

So in other words their years of research concluded with the same reliability is the old fashioned tests?

[DewDiligence]

USPSTF critical of Cologuard: #msg-117494591.

[sorkin]

Why the drop?

[DewDiligence]

Blood test for CRC using optical scanning:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blood-test-colon-cancer-improves-180000419.html

[DewDiligence]

EXAS sells 8.05M* shares @$25.50—a 6% discount to yesterday’s close:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-announces-pricing-public-131100082.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS selling 8.05M* shares at unspecified price:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-announces-agreement-sell-201200081.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[DewDiligence]

2Q15 results are in-line with guidance given on 6/25/15 Investor Day (#msg-114911581):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-highlights-cologuard-positive-090200489.html

Exact Sciences today announced its business and financial results for the second quarter of 2015, and showed continued strong performance with more than 21,000 completed Cologuard tests for the quarter, up more than 90 percent from the first quarter, which resulted in $8.1 million in revenue. Additionally, the cumulative number of ordering physicians grew to 14,700 during the quarter, a 77 percent increase.

[ghmm]

EXAS:

Apparently the event will be live streamed.

Here is a link to a brochure courtesy of the Hedgefund Manager himself
http://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Medicare-Fee-for-Service-Payment/ClinicalLabFeeSched/Downloads/2015-Agenda-for-Clinical-Laboratory-Meeting.pdf

[ranjo]

yes lots better than Colo or fit but I agree it could get better

[DewDiligence]

I was initially shocked that the Cologuard completion rate is only 70-75%; however, the completion rate for FIT is much lower, according to EXAS.

[DewDiligence]

Hedgefund short EXAS seeks CMS restrictions on Cologuard reimbursement:

#msg-115083037

[ranjo]

Dew what did you think of the total of 80k tests ordered but for errors and lack of coverage obviously didn't all get completed?

[DewDiligence]

EXAS forecasts 21K completed Cologuard tests during 2Q15 (vs 11K in 1Q15) and 32K completed tests in 3Q15:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-provides-strong-launch-103000250.html

This PR was released in conjunction with today’s Investor Day webcast.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS Investor Day 6/25/15 8:30am-12pm ET:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-webcast-investor-analyst-113000252.html

[DewDiligence]

EXAS -7%, purportedly from bearish report by Favus.

[ranjo]

Dew when do we see the short squeeze?

[DewDiligence]

EXAS, MDAnderson collaborate on diagnostic development for lung cancer:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-md-anderson-cancer-090000190.html

[DewDiligence]

Cologuard had a penetration in US primary-care practices of 3% during 1Q15, up from 1% during 4Q14.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS +11% on 1Q15 results: #msg-113338020.

[DewDiligence]

Cologuard now covered by 90M US lives:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cologuard-receives-coverage-several-commercial-120000535.html

[DewDiligence]

EXAS gets IRWD to co-promote Cologuard: #msg-111553013.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS -11% on lack of 2015 guidance: #msg-111123783.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS extends collaboration with Mayo clinic: #msg-110619426.

[livinginsv]

the report timing was JPM induced . . .

i think KC released this prelim report so he could talk the the conference attendees without worrying about disclosing public information . . . he told us all he knows, before getting on the plane . . . KC is not the type to pump the company in excessive PRs . . .

all jmo

[DewDiligence]

EXAS reports Cologuard sales and compliance rate in 2014: #msg-109885523.

[livinginsv]

asking for clarification from CMS was prudent . . . it is not wise to accuse the govt of a mistake before they admit it . . . the timing was truly awful for option players, but that's part of the risk . . . for true longs who buy and hold it was a non-event . . . a typo, to be corrected . . . no big deal . . . why the market reacted how it did is the bizarre part . . . too many uninformed traders relying on too much heresay . . . jmo

i added at 25.83, a market order as it crossed 26.- in the morning . . . it couldn't be a real number without alerting the company first . . . the responsible CMS agent should be investigated, a lot of money changed hands on this fat fingered typo . . . also jmo

[oldberkeley]

Late Friday afternoon it seemed obvious to me that it was a clerical error, and I bought some shares for a quick trade tomorrow.

Instead of issuing their wishy-washy beats-me-what's-going-on PR that only exacerbated the situation, EXAS should have strongly stated they knew it was a mistake.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS now says it was all a misunderstanding:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cms-reimbursement-cologuard-223000996.html

[zj3001]

Thanks.

[DewDiligence]

Reimbursement snafu with Medicare:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-addresses-cms-reimbursement-203000914.html

[zj3001]

What's going on today? Yahoo board is blowing up with crazy talk.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS sells 4.6M* shares @$25.75, a 4% discount to yesterday’s close:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-announces-pricing-public-141000542.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[DewDiligence]

EXAS selling 4.6M* shares at unspecified price:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exact-sciences-announces-agreement-sell-210700221.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[livinginsv]

really ranj?,

is it safe to get back into AMRN? . . . it seemed sales never ramped up, long ago . . .

[livinginsv]

with 50 million pre-paid medicare patients, UHC seems insignificant . . . they'll get on board when they realize their embarrassment in not covering what CMS recommends . . . too bad our slogan can't be "end unnecessary colos!" . . .

[ranjo]

Dew, are you still in our old friend amrn? ... i've been in and out 10x this year; presently i own 20k...interesting how vascepa (given the chance) will save many more lives than Cologuard and it is trading at a buck and change ...goes to show you a good drug does not make a good stock necessarily.. peace

[DewDiligence]

Not short EXAS and never have been. Regards, Dew

[ranjo]

With Just 10% of CMS market- EXAS will generate $830 million in gross revenues and at 30% net margins they will produce $3.00 EPS.
Put a 20-25x earnings multiple on that and you are at $60 - $75 per share. Dew i hope you aren't shorting this?

[maytepper]

$EXAS William Blair Maintains Outperform On Exact Sciences Following UnitedHealth Noncoverage Decision http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2014/12/02/william-blair-maintains-outperform-on-exact-sciences-following-unitedhealth-noncoverage-decision/

[DewDiligence]

UnitedHealthcare rejects reimbursement for Cologuard:

https://t.co/q6Y6HiC3u8

[ranjo]

Stock, thanks for the timeline. I've owned this stock for several years right after KC was hired. the oceania study on ibd should be posted within the next 60 days as well as more clarity on the ramp the next cc. 2015 looks very promising if the team continues to execute like they have historically.