Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks for heads up -- looks good!!
JT how is this board?
Hello Friend,
Another new one for the IBOX....Janus Overseas
Janus Overseas Fund JAOSX (61.65)
Foreign Equity | Since 1994-05-02
The fund's primary objective is capital growth. Management attempts to achieve this goal by investing at least 80% of assets in the securities of non-U.S. companies. To this end, management uses a bottom-up investment approach. When examining issues for inclusion in the portfolio, it looks at each company's prospects and the factors that are likely to be growth-drivers. Management's research focuses on a company's business model, financial strength, business franchise, and the leadership ability of a company's management team. Competitors, suppliers, and customers are also examined, in an attempt to develop estimates of a company's earnings power. Management will also research macroeconomic factors, but only to the extent that the factor will affect an individual company. Valuation is determined using price-to-earnings ratios and price-to-cash flow. When looking at valuations, management also takes into consideration the degree to which a company is leveraged. Although management is allowed by prospectus to hedge currency risk, it generally does not make use of this technique.
Median Mkt Cap Net Assets Exp Ratio *Redemption Fee *Max Front Load *Max Back Load *Min Inv *Min IRA Manager Name | Start Date
28444($Mil) 9000($Mil) 0.88% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2500 500 Brent Lynn | 1/01/2001
Net Assets 1 Yr Return* 5 Yr Return* 10 Yr Return* Since Inception
9000 50.18 33.32 14.63 16.46
Total Returns(%) Objective: Foreign Equity
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Total Return % 27.62 47.21 32.38 18.57 36.79 -23.89
Objective Return % 17.44 29.52 19.06 19.84 40.36 -14.48
+/- Objective 10.18 17.69 13.33 -1.26 -3.57 -9.41
Index (S&P 500) 11.41 25.76 14.02 20.70 39.15 -15.64
+/- Index 16.22 21.45 18.37 -2.12 -2.36 -8.25
JAOSX's 3-Year annualized return % is 15.06 % above the average return for funds in its objective.
% Rank in Objective 15 1 11 53 58 95
JAOSX's 3-Year annualized return % is 15.06 % above the average return for funds in its objective.
Hey. I'm TRYING to find a negative article. Really!
Seizing opportunities in emerging markets: Investment outlook
Following is the investment outlook for emerging markets in 2007:
China continues to be the emerging market of greatest interest to executives. In fact, over the next five years, more than two-thirds of executives expect their company to locate or expand in China. Approximately 80 percent are likely to locate or expand both production and sales/distribution operations, while 44 percent are likely to locate or expand R&D operations in China over this period.
While China may have the limelight, the other emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and India are also expected to attract future investments. Over the next five years, in the case of each market, roughly half of executives surveyed expect their companies to locate or expand in these markets.
For Eastern Europe, 81 percent plan to locate or expand sales/distribution operations and 43 percent will locate or expand production operations.
A similar trend is expected for Southeast Asia with 72 percent of companies planning to locate or expand sales/distribution operations and 46 percent investing in production.
In addition to a high percentage of companies expected to invest or expand sales and distribution in Latin American markets, 49 percent are likely to locate or expand production operations.
A third of executives surveyed expect their companies to invest in research and development in India.
Increasing revenues and market share are cited as the most important reason for investing in emerging markets (mentioned by 84 percent of executives surveyed). Other reasons indicated by executives include reducing costs (77 percent), using low-cost suppliers (69 percent) and achieving faster time to market (61 percent).
This guy has been right so far. Blending the various emerging countries into one investment to counter the individual swings of any one country is the way to go.
Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil
-- Posted Thursday, 28 December 2006 | Digg This Article
By: Nadeem Walayat
Emerging markets have by and large boomed during 2007. With indices such as India's Sensex up more than 50% on the year, though the year ends on a cautionary note ,given the recent actions by Thailand's regime that sent their stock market reeling. So even though the long-term fundamentals are still strong for India, China, Russia, Brazil etc, the first half of 2007 could become a corrective period for the emerging markets, as they end the year on high valuations and growth expectations. Many investors have only recently started to enter these markets, and they may be disappointed by performances during the first half of 2007. The key here is to invest for the long-term growth so well beyond 2007.
India
India has enjoyed a volatile boom during 2007, taking the Sensex index up over 50% by year end, after recovering from a major sell off in May. Though, my last article pointed out, that despite a solid long-term growth story, India may be in for some consolidation over much of the coming year. The growth in India has not been followed by significant investment in infrastructure, especially with regards transport and power which badly lags behind the developments in China. And the mistake many people are making is to term India as another China, which it is not.
The implications of weak infrastructure development are expected to come to the fore of investors during 2007. So it may be worth waiting for a pull back before entering into India. As the risks of some sort of crash (albeit temporary) are much greater for India than for China, where the growth seems more robust. The fact is that the governance of the country and economy is far better managed by communist China than democratic India, despite media coverage of the 'British system', unfortunately this is also accompanied by rampant corruption in India. In summary, India will continue to grow, but also will likely experience more volatility in the stock markets than China during 2007.
China
China continues to enjoy strong GDP growth of 10% per annum, the construction boom also continues as tens of millions flock to new cities every year. This economic prosperity is leading to an ever growing middle class, that is increasingly adopting western style consumer appetites. So even if export demand slackens from a slowing US, this looks set to be made up by increasing demand generated in the domestic economy. Hence the gains during 2006 look set to continue during 2007 and for many years beyond, despite the occasional correction See full prospects for China in Emerging Markets - Chinese Red-chips Soar into Orbit, is Gold Next ? .
Russia
2007 has seen Russia increasingly take control of its abundant natural resources. The forgotten super power is experiencing growth in excess of 6% as the resource dollars and euros flow into Russia by the hundred billion each year. Economically, Russia's domestic economy is expected to grow by more than 6% during 2007 against GDP growth of 7% in 2006. The sectors that are expected to outperform are retail / consumer and property. Russia's economy is expected to continue accelerating as has ample reserves to invest from the the large annual trade surpluses. A small part of the reserves have been used to clear Russia's foreign debt i.e. some $24 billions during 2007. These reserves will also cushion economic activity against any sharp drop in the price of energy and raw material prices during 2007
The stock market is likely to continue to perform strongly during 2007 as long as resource prices don't collapse. Reforms in the electricity sector are set to fuel a continuation of the bullish trend into 2008.
Brazil
Brazil is another resource story, with more than 40% of all exports dependant on commodity prices. Given that soft commodities have started to perk up (coffee etc), Brazil stocks are expected to outperform India and Russia during 2008 despite lower economic growth of about 3.5%, though with interest rates on a continuing downward trend (13.25%), growth could surprise to the upside. The risks are political as 2007 is an election year.
Eastern Europe
The new EU member states continue to enjoy robust economic growth of an average of 6%, as EU membership brings influx of EU infrastructure building funds, and inward investment as western industry continues relocate eastward to lower cost base areas. Countries such as Czech republic, Poland, the baltic states should continue to do well, with growth expectations of 6%. The only exception is likely to be Hungary. The best investment strategy would be a fund that encapsulates the new member states and candidate countries such as Romania, Bulgaria and even Russia.
Gulf States
Unlike other emerging markets, the stock market bubble popped early during 2006 in these markets as valuations reached an unrealistic 50X earnings. Many of the Gulf indices are now down by more than 50%. This has made the valuations more reasonable, but many regional investors have been burned by the decline and a lot of stock is waiting in the wings to be liquidated on rallies. This suggests weakness is set to continue into 2007, even if oil prices rose. Basically the markets need to be given time to build a bottom, so the Gulf region looks like an area to avoid for much of 2007.
Comparative ranking of the emerging markets - In order of most favorable for stock market gains during 2007
China
Eastern Europe
Russia
India
Brazil
How to invest in emerging markets ?
Rather in direct investments in a handful of stocks quoted on the emerging market stock exchanges, the safest route is via managed funds such as unit trusts, mutual funds and investment trusts that pool the risk. Another alternative is the growing number of Exchange Traded Funds, which attempt to track country indices. Trustnet.com is a good source for investment & unit trusts information. Emerging Market funds will also be mentioned in our stock picks for 2007 article to follow by the end of 2006.
by Nadeem Walayat
I like the sound of this report.
The global economy continues to grow strongly
The strong global expansion is continuing, and projections for global growth in both 2007 and 2008 have been revised up to 5.2 percent from 4.9 percent at the time of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook. Risks to this favorable outlook remain modestly tilted to the downside.
The global economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the first half of 2007. Although growth in the United States slowed in the first quarter, recent indicators suggest that the economy regained momentum in the second quarter. Activity in most other countries continued to expand strongly. In the euro area and Japan, growth has remained above trend with some welcome signs that domestic demand is taking a more central role in the expansions. Emerging market countries have continued to expand robustly, led by rapid growth in China, India, and Russia.
Inflation remains generally well contained despite strong global growth, although some emerging market and developing countries have faced rising inflation pressures, especially from energy and food prices. Oil prices have risen back toward record highs against the backdrop of limited spare production capacity, while food prices have been boosted by supply shortages and increased use of biofuels.
Against this background, global growth is now projected at 5.2 percent in 2007 and 2008—0.3 percentage point higher for both years than projected at the time of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook (Table 1). The major upward revisions have been for emerging market and developing countries, with growth projections substantially marked up for China, India, and Russia. Among the advanced economies, growth in the United States is now expected at 2 percent this year—0.2 percentage point lower than projected in the April 2007 World Economic Outlook—although activity should regain momentum through the year and return to potential by mid-2008. Growth projections for the euro area, particularly Germany, and Japan have also been raised.
The overall balance of risks to the global growth outlook remains tilted modestly to the downside, as it was at the time of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook. Nevertheless, there have been some changes in the IMF staff's assessment of individual risk factors. With sustained strong growth, supply constraints are tightening and inflation risks have edged up since the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, increasing the likelihood that central banks will need to further tighten monetary policy. The risk of an oil price spike remains a concern. As discussed in the accompanying Financial Market Update, financial market risks have also increased as credit quality has deteriorated in some sectors and market volatility has increased.
A number of other risks, however, look more balanced. In particular, while the correction in the housing sector is continuing, overall downside risks related to U.S. domestic demand have diminished somewhat. Upside risks to growth in the euro area and emerging market countries discussed in the April 2007 World Economic Outlook have partially materialized and have been built into the baseline projections. Further, some progress has been made toward reducing risks of a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances, although protectionist pressures are a continuing concern.
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
(Annual percent change unless otherwise noted)
Current Projections Difference from April 2007 Projections
2005 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008
World output
4.9 5.5 5.2 5.2 0.3 0.3
Advanced economies
2.6 3.1 2.6 2.8 0.1 0.1
United States
3.2 3.3 2.0 2.8 -0.2 --
Euro area
1.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 0.3 0.2
Germany
0.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 0.8 0.5
France
1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 0.2 -0.1
Italy
0.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 -- --
Spain
3.5 3.9 3.8 3.4 0.2 --
Japan
1.9 2.2 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.1
United Kingdom
1.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 -- --
Canada
3.1 2.8 2.5 2.8 0.1 -0.1
Other advanced economies
3.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 0.4 0.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies
4.7 5.3 4.8 4.8 0.2 0.2
Other emerging market and developing countries
7.5 8.1 8.0 7.6 0.5 0.5
Africa
5.6 5.5 6.4 6.2 0.2 0.4
Sub-Sahara
6.0 5.5 6.9 6.4 0.1 0.3
Central and eastern Europe
5.6 6.3 5.7 5.4 0.2 0.1
Commonwealth of Independent States
6.6 7.7 7.6 7.1 0.6 0.7
Russia
6.4 6.7 7.0 6.8 0.6 0.9
Excluding Russia
6.9 9.7 8.8 7.8 0.5 0.3
Developing Asia
9.2 9.7 9.6 9.1 0.8 0.7
China
10.4 11.1 11.2 10.5 1.2 1.0
India
9.0 9.7 9.0 8.4 0.6 0.6
ASEAN-4
5.1 5.4 5.4 5.7 -0.1 -0.1
Middle East
5.3 5.7 5.4 5.5 -0.1 --
Western Hemisphere
4.6 5.5 5.0 4.4 0.1 0.2
Brazil
2.9 3.7 4.4 4.2 -- --
Mexico
2.8 4.8 3.1 3.5 -0.3 --
Memorandum
European Union
2.0 3.2 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.1
World growth based on market exchange rates
3.4 3.9 3.6 3.7 0.2 0.2
World trade volume (goods and services)
7.5 9.4 7.1 7.4 0.1 --
Imports
Advanced economies
6.1 7.6 4.6 6.0 -0.1 0.3
Other emerging market and developing countries
12.2 15.0 12.8 11.1 0.3 -1.1
Exports
Advanced economies
5.8 8.5 5.5 6.2 -- 0.4
Other emerging market and developing countries
11.2 11.1 10.7 9.2 0.3 -0.7
Commodity prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil1
41.3 20.5 -0.8 7.8 4.7 1.2
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights)
10.3 28.4 14.5 -7.8 10.3 1.0
Consumer prices
Advanced economies
2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 0.2 --
Other emerging market and developing countries
5.4 5.3 5.7 5.0 0.3 0.1
London interbank offered rate (percent)2
On U.S. dollar deposits
3.8 5.3 5.4 5.3 0.1 0.2
On euro deposits
2.2 3.1 3.8 3.7 -- --
On Japanese yen deposits
0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 -0.1 --
Thanks for the offer, JT, but I'll have to decline.
Besides, this board can pretty much run itself.
Still haven't found time to search for an independent "think tank" kind of group to get their thoughts on how long the EMFs have left to run. A lot of these countries are back where we were around the time of our Industrial Revolution.
I may stay with MGEMX for the next couple of decades! ( :
Trying to time it by going in and out isn't something I'm good at, or comfortable doing.
But if I could, I would!
ZIMBABWE???? Damn...who new?!
This is interesting....
but I do not know the date of the material...
also....
(from prior conversation)
South Africa, Iceland perhaps?....Russia still...but they are still doomed by major corruption though...
Qatar particularly Dohi,... Sao Paulo - Brazil,... Bahrain...Korea still....Vietnam for sure...their currency is also a good investment I believe...The new Vietnamese polymer dong............also NEW Iraqi Dinar...I am in almost over a year now and up big....around %30 I believe...
Dubai, New Zealand, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and I believe Australia and Canada still too...China, Poland, Czech Republic and much of eastern Europe....Nigeria....Liberia...
(also refer to the maps in the IBOX)
Hey Scientist
Glad you like the board.....thanks for coming by
MMKBX looks like a very good EMF...."Fundies" looks good...as does the chart...
the top ten holders don't look to be slowing anytime soon either....
(do you know the significance of the "Class B"?)
another one to keep an eye on....VEIEX....a strong fund by Vanguard, known for its lows fees & costs...
Good Luck Friend,
TTYS,
JT
(Both recently added to IBOX....Thanks again)
nice board, check out MMKBX Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Emerging Markets Portfolio Class B
Average Annual Returns (%) as of 9/30/2007
1 Year 60.79
3 Year 42.83
5 Year 38.70
10 Year 11.97
Life 13.14
What it is
A growth-oriented mutual fund that invests in stocks of companies domiciled in emerging market countries.
Goal
Seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing primarily in growth-oriented equity securities of issuers in emerging market countries.
What it invests in
Normally, the portfolio will invest at least 80% of its assets in stocks in emerging markets. The term emerging market applies to any country which, in the adviser's opinion, is generally considered to be an emerging or developing country by the international financial community. The portfolio will focus on those emerging market countries in which the manager believes the economies are developing strongly and in which the markets are becoming more sophisticated. The approach combines top-down country allocation with bottom-up stock selection. This fund is subject to certain additional risks, including those associated with: Investing in emerging markets involves certain risks not associated with investing in the United States, including restrictions on repatriation, price volatility and lesser liquidity of shares, currency fluctuations, political and economic uncertainties, and limited publicly available information. In addition, the volatility may be increased because the Fund may invest in a limited number of issuers. Derivative instruments. Investments in derivatives could magnify volatility. A short-term redemption fee of 2% will apply to shares held less than 30 days. Share price and return will vary.
Top Ten Holdings 3 as of 09/30/2007
Cia Vale Do Rio Doce
China Mobile Ltd
America Movil Sab de Cv
Sberbank
Mtn Group Ltd
Gazprom Oao
China Construction Bank Corp
China Coal Energy Co.
Unibanco - Uniao de Bancos Bra
Wal-Mart de Mexico Sab de Cv
21.92% of the portfolio
Geographical Diversification4
as of 06/30/2007
North America 0.79%
Latin America 21.48%
United Kingdom 2.84%
Western Europe (not UK) 1.44%
Russia and Eastern Europe 18.08%
Africa 7.79%
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan 31.89%
Near, Mid, and Far East 15.69%
Major Market Sectors 3 as of 09/30/2007
09/30/2007
Consumer Discretionary 10.3%
Consumer Staples 3.4%
Energy 10.5%
Financials 24.8%
Industrials 14.3%
Information Technology 8.3%
Materials 13.5%
Other 0.5%
Telecommunications 11.0%
Utilities 2.2%
Asset Allocation 4 as of 06/30/2007
06/30/2007
Domestic Equities 0.77%
Foreign Equities 97.28%
Cash 1.63%
Preferreds 0.32%
Turnover Rate as of 12/31/2006 82%
Fees
Short-term Trading Fee 2.00%
Short-term Fee Period 30 Days
Management Fee 1.19%
Expenses & Fees
Expense Ratio as of 07/02/2007 1.66%
So far, everything I've read and heard makes it sound like things will continue to go well for the EMFs right through 2008. Hope they know what they're talking about! ( :
How much longer will the emerging markets be the place to be invested in?
And what will the next one be?
Is the emerging markets arena tied to the move in precious metals???
Anyone know a link where longterm economic trends like this are discussed?
That Morgan Stanley Fund is doing nice...should do well too now that MS dropped dropped the 10M New York Times Shares....wow...
ADRE is doing pretty well....along with most/all the stocks in the IBOX....
I can't quote statistics like you can jt, lol, but I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the S & L crisis. Many people didn't think that would cause as severe a problem as it did. Start rolling a snowball downhill and eventually...
Being in the real estate appraisal business, I've been disgusted by the idiocy I've witnessed with all the gimics being conjured up by banks to get loans for people who can't afford the houses they're buying.
And it's not just the sub prime market that's being hit. Did you see what happened to American Home Mortgage? They're not a subprime lender.
NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of American Home Mortgage Investment (AHM) plunged 90% Tuesday after the company raised fears it may become insolvent, renewing concern about worsening credit quality in the mortgage market and killing a Wall Street rally.
The struggling mortgage lender said its financial backers have essentially pulled the plug. The Wall Street banks that lend American Home Mortgage money for home loans — which include firms like UBS, Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase — will not extend the company any more money, and some have demanded back the money they have lent.
Dozens of mortgage lenders have gone bankrupt this year as more people miss payments on home loans, housing prices sag and skittish investors flee risky mortgage debt.
But while most of the bankrupt lenders catered to "subprime" borrowers — or borrowers with checkered credit histories — almost none of American Home Mortgage's $58.9 billion in loans last year were classified as subprime.
American Home Mortgage specializes in adjustable-rate mortgages, which carry interest rates that reset according to certain benchmark interest rates. This type of debt has hamstrung a lot of borrowers in the past year because interest rates have jumped.
Slojab,
Honesty Sir, I really don't think that the problem is that major, in the sub-prime that is...(first define it sub-prime: exactly what that is, below prime....)the regulations on the second rate loans needed to be "fixed" anyway.(so they get what they had coming to them essentially)
(second) So far defaults on loans have gone from the standard 11% on forclosures to the last two quarter at around 13%...(not a huge increase by anyones standards)
(third) OVERREACTION...need I say more....these days the U.S. stock markets almost move like the Chinese markets(as in 10% in one day at 20,000)(still the U.S. only moves at 3% at the most)
(fourth) the economy IS strong = good numbers forgive investor sentiment and eventually visa versa( buy the deals when you see them, who need a broker to tell you which stocks to buy...
(fifth)This is precisely what the central banking system (CBS) is here for: regulating liquidity.(since there was to much out there anyway) Putting money into the system when it is being pulled out...and who in there right mind isn't taking profits from the big boards since they have seen record highs 4 years consecutively(if not more like 10)("you can't hit a record high everyday" ~Cramer)So, since private investment/foreign investment dollars pull back slighty from the circulating economy and then influx of the CBS capital effectively keeps rates low so good Americans like you and I can borrow money at a lower rates...
(sixth) (relates to five), 150, 85 Billion, those numbers are jokes these days...less than four years ago the CBS pumped more than that in and that was stupid recession rumors(a recession that never happened, I might add)... 30 Trillion exchanges hands everyday in America. THIRTY TRILLION EVERYDAY
(this next number is just speculation but I bet the government makes 100 billion a day, seriously)....
(reminds me of a quote from IHUB) A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you are talking about real money..Senator Everett Dirksen I believe said that... and that is the truth...IMO
What it all comes down to is: Stick to the script
the normal rules you invest by
be patient
be liquid
find good deals
get rich
Good luck friend,
I hope this information finds you and others well,
JT
So, how badly is the situation with our banks lending policies, that have messed up the housing market so badly, going to extend to the emerging markets?
I heard this morning that England and European countries have pumped liked 150 and 85 BILLION into their systems to try and stave off investor's fears.
Is this going to be like the Savings and Loan debacle of a couple decades ago?
Anyone think it might be a good idea to pull money off the table and sit on the sidelines until this settles out?
How long will it take????
BIK - new BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) ETF launced in June looks very interesting...tracks the S&P BRIC 40 Index...expenses are .50%
44% China
27% Russia
22% Brazil
6% India
2% Other
38% Energy
27% Financials
Top 5 Holdings:
China Mobile
Gazprom
Lukoil
Petro China
China Life
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_funds.asp?MFID=178512
I like this ETF because it offers more exposure to Russia and the energy sector than EEB, another great BRIC ETF. It is also more concntrated with almost 1/2 as many stocks in the fund (40 vs 73).
EEB is almost 1/2 invested in Brazil and offers little exposure to Russia, so if you are wanting more exposure to Latin America it would be the way to go...see the information below:
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_funds.asp?MFID=168419
Perhaps if you split your emerging market $ 50/50 in these two ETFs it would give you the ideal exposure to the BRIC economies:
China 40%
Brazil 34%
Russia 16%
India 10%
After this week's NAZ and DOW correction, any well-managed China Fund is a BUY imo
JT -- here are a few more of the more popular, and easily accesible emerging market funds:
SSEMX
PRMSX
And here are a couple of hot funds that specialize in the emerging markets of Russia and Eastern Europe, have cooled off some in 2007, but have been on fire:
EUROX
TREMX
Yes Sir, another good example of a hottt emerging fund, dedicated to capturing the countries just jumping into the new industrial revolution...
I never do things halfway. lol. I have my entire deferred comp in MGEMX. Best move I ever made a little over a year ago.
Now, all I worry about is safeguarding my gains. Hope this board can help me recognize when the tide turns, which it'll eventually do.
But, right now, I'm loving my 40%+ gains, year-over-year!
Followers
|
3
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
126
|
Created
|
07/23/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |