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One day it could go there probably after election on either candidate win or loss.
I will be day trading it down side seems grater but Bull market always climbs wall of worry.
I still have an RTY target down there at 1261 - lets see what will happen to that ....
Contract, some time hedge with option or leverage with options.
I missed last night gyration.
Really don't know far, I go by the day
You can see that 285 is in the middle of a big empty zone, which seems to be irregularities that DaBoyz don't tolerate too long...
What I saw was a memo from DaBoyz asking their geeks to prepare an incursion to 294-296... that doesn't mean soon though, they have all the time in their favor...
It may test 285 in July, What do you think?
You are right,that is what I meant with the ladder, there were missing steps with the ruthless cleaning in the past days that has been replaced in the process by long positions.
My journey has showed me, no doubts at all, that this is a precisely controlled business which only one point in its business model: make profits up and down every day.
They can't avoid that sometimes you are in the right side of the trade, so all they can do is to minimize your winnings as much as possible trough several mechanism.
I have a full methodology (*) to calculate those targets which is based in the false teaching of TA. I'm not saying TA is wrong, or useless BUT that you need to identify where a "conclusion" has been set in your mind for you to react in a Conditioned way !! and actually when you don't do what has been taught to you, that you feel stupid!
The targets are somewhat recalculated but the variation is minimal, actually in my trading I don't close at the target but some times close enough and others only above the target. That is why although it is a clear methodology there is a component that look at the whole picture which is very difficult to program. So I guess rather than a program "my" (*) method is a pdf.
That is why NO INDICATOR will be able to mimic the method. That is not saying don't use indicators, only realize that:
-they are lagging
-they can't point you to targets
Inside the methodology there are micro targets, some times so quick and small that you can't trade but others it is possible, however these are possible to program, I believe because they are unbalances in the order flow that need to be corrected. Here is an example yesterday, the yellow bar are programed showing the unbalance and where the prices will revert, 100%, no discussion.
You can see there were two dips for buying knowing precisely the target, in this case 40 cents (in options no bad). Also in between there was another but too small and too quick
(*) Disclaimer: as everything in life your learning, methods, etc is just the sum of your experiences and building in someone else findings, sieving, sieving... Another disclaimer, I am probably the worst trader ever so that is why I need to delve so much, I have not doubt whatsoever that a lot of people do a lot of money using very simple tools.
With that strong ramp there are a lot of long targets below. Does your algo recalculate them and when do you normally void them?
Tx!
Glad if you took it, but it was not a cleaning... actually they want more bets there... it seems there wasn't enough money..
Up mode completed AH
Result: successful.
Asian session played along and there are now more targets completing the stairways to heaven.
Once all the steps are in place you can go up and down safely.
Restricted memo from da Boyz says clearly to paint the roof specially RTY, but ES team wants to clean late asian longs first, while NQ guys as usual, only want to take shorts, final decision is to let ES do whatever they want but before market opens, then the algo was switched to ranging mode.
DaBoyz are now having a coffee break and reading trading boards while laughing all the time when they read "Top" , "correction", "Crash", "The Fed"... Oh Boyz
AH: double spike to ES 3231 cleared more shorts
Algo just out of ranging mode and into.... up mode, let's see AH
Market close on buy seems morning will open Gap up will it hold or not, yet to be determined.
R?R is not favorable for extended period. I will trade from short prescriptive.
Trade carefully, Trade happy if sad do not trade.
ES good bounce today,
IMOP if Biden continue to win tomorrow than rally continue otherwise we are testing 274 area on ES in coming weeks.
I think SPY 100 points correction is due before expiration of this month.
R/R favors to be out so I have no position in S&P at this time.
Well this incident is strange, attack on Saudi oil complex.
US is suppose to defend those strategic structures for which SA spent Billions of $.
So either our technology is completely useless and could not detect these warfare, that is a scary scenario itself.
2- US wants to attack Iran so they are blaming them although Houties are taking responsibilities.
3- US wants to punish China because impact of this attack is more on China, US is affected least whereas china oil prices will jump way more.
Question is who supplied to Houties or Iran with this technology?
Except, US who else has that type of drone capabilities to hit target so precisely.
I think market will realize little late what is the purpose of the attack and will rally to new high. We may test 2994 on SPX before going there.
I was wrong many times and I could be in the future also so do your own due diligence.
Farooq
Please do your own due diligence.
I think we will try to retest 2820 before going down.
This week volatility is because of such a big move and many want to book profit.
Many of Big money mover might not play till September so market could test previous low or make new low in summer dole drum.
China trade carry uncertainty but news will be short lived every one will sell the news, Impact of 300 basis point in interest increase is more than what market has discounted.
In last 14 months 3 Year Treasury have paid more than the market.
Average bear market is 9 months to about 2 years.
Recession will bring discount rate in to play but Fed is also stuck with balance sheet.
They are not liquidating but they are still draining by letting them cash on maturity.
Good luck and happy trading.
Same script from last so many days, start dropping after lunch 30 to 50 point range.
We have dropped 240 S&P Points in 9 days. Which is close to 87 decline. We have dropped 382 Points since making new high.
It does seems if Mr. Trump stick with trade dispute we will see worst market ever seen by % decline in an Year.
His chances of presidency will be vanished.
Future is 4.50 down.
Here are my estimates for tomorrow trading.
I think we will Gap down to 272.44 than 274.23 from there 271.22 to 270.87 and logical close 272.50 and Monday initial 2 hours rally if we have good news other wise it is coin toss.
Alternate is opening 275.30 going to 277 by the close.
Monday is 50 /50 down.
I favor 1st one.
Good luck and happy trading.
Farooq
Market is dropping because there are no buyers. It is a bear market.
Rallies will be fast but short lived.
Trade carefully if want to go long use option for longer duration.
Seems market wants to test October low at least.
I am thinking 2 days rally from 3 PM today.
Trade on your own analysis.
Trying to figure out, may be someone can give explanation.
Yesterday at 1:35 PM candle shows 25.5 Share traded between 285.71 to 285.55 that is 7.4 Billion $ sale since price move down so it was a sale.MM was able to distribute 15 Million till the close.
They are holding it till they distribute another 10 millions.
My question is will they drop after it or they spike ES future in case it was a sale by MM?
TIA.
SPY 286 8/8 expiry 44000 calls are bought. My observation is 8 out of 10 times stock drop 20 points or 2 $. I saw it at 285$ so will it Tag 283 before expiry?
Will it do the same this time?
Opinions welcome.
Do not hesitate to write trust me it will makes you better trader.
Good luck and happy trading.
Jamie Damon drop the bombshell of interest rate projection.
I suspect 3 to 5 % drop in two weeks.
Based on
1- Market needs to adjust 5% forecast for 10 year interest rate.
2- Mr. President empty threats could trigger selloff because of Chinese teaching a lesson to us in Bond market and in that case
a swift 15 % drop in 3 weeks is very possible.(This is extreme scenario)
3- Broad base indexes are not participating in this rally Russel 2000.
I will probably short tomorrows opening.
I am selling today my open position and moving to Sept contract.
I am long from 2580 but I am afraid tomorrow we might test 2580 or lower again.
I might sell in overnight session or may hedge it short against long.
Trend is up but OE do some weird things some time, still trying to learn how they do in favor of their position.
Most important and easy gauge is ATR if ATR is in normal range it is easy to trade when it is 300 % more it is difficult to trade. Now market is dropping 100 (10 SPY point) basis point in a minute .
Trade with hedge or take a breather market will always be here.
I am short against my hedge and ready to some time today.
I was sopped out over night.
Did not start a new long position what ever I was long I stayed with it and still I am but do thinking to become Neutral, fear factor for over night.
It is about real trading so you will find human factor.
Happy trading and stay happy.
Here is very simple logic, S&P future do not drop 50+ points consecutively. People who are hitting bids relentlessly are big stake holders, they want out so trend so far is down.
I do not think its a normal 10% variety correction. Stay short till your system say, it is fast market so stay nimble, 10 20 points drop or gain will be in minutes, use stops.
I tried to go long near the end on Friday but stopped out with loss.
I am still short.
Sold Short again for overnight, have a stop placed now at 2651.00
BOT XX ES SEP18 Futures 2674.50 USD GLOBEX 11:35:24 2.05 null UXXXXXX
SLD XX ES SEP18 Futures 2731.00 USD GLOBEX MAR 21 21:13:01 2.05 null UXXXXXX
Went long 2749 out at 2753.
Signal is long but not playing overnight.
Here is What I think will happen in next 8 -9 months.
It's a phenomena seen in market that when price Gap up and run after some time prices come back and test or fill those gaps, some time it takes months , some time more but it usually more true for indexes.
Here is the reason I see market is correcting.
Interest rates are going to be 4.5% in 3 year period which in theory brings market down to 25% .
Run from 2605 to 2872 was a short squeeze so I do not take them in consideration, so market can correct in 9 months period to 651 points to 1954 area as it happens often it usually swings more so we can see 1746 by November.
Our fiscal policy will keep dollar low we need to borrow more, rates will go higher because we are asking more money to balance our budget.
Productivity gains will be hard to come.
WIth higher interest rate public have alternative to keep money safe, so money will exit stock market.
Lower stock price has wealth effect in reverse so our economy can shrink, which can exaggerate down turn.
It certainly does not mean we could not attempts to try new high but seems unlikely at this time as I am writing. I do hedge my holding so I do make less but I sleep well.
I do keep these things in mind but trade on my simple system. I did bought some calls so if market goes up I can benefit, but it is 0.01% of my portfolio.
I was wrong many times before and I will be in future also.
Good luck and happy trading.
No technical trading so best advice is stay put. Using put options in this market is better option. When volatility reduce you trade with confidence.
You are trading against computer they either accumulate after selling the morning or they sell after selling through the day now they are selling and when they do not see buyers at end of day they start selling that is happening in last few days.
We are selling into the close.
I see 2519 in next 7 days and 24150 on SPY in 15 to 20 days we will rebound to 2500 area and than how many funds gone under will decide, Worst case scenario is 1800 to 1900 area before move ends . Most likely we will be exhausted by 2200.
I was wrong many time before and I was correct enough time so do your homework, It is your money.
Good luck and happy trading.
I was stopped out of my previous position. I initiated a position yesterday from long side which also ended in stop loss. As a discipline I do not trade for a while if my observation is clouded.
My instinct say we will test 2530 area today and bounce from there.
I will be using option in this market and future will be suspended, margin increase at IB is another reason.
We might be in this market till October 2018. We can test pre brexit marks before going up.
There is a real danger of this market dropping to 1000 S&P points before any meaningful recovery.
Went long at 2794 last night and still long.
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