Donut Shop

[xe2dy]

Hi anon.10, tuffy88 has posted an exit of SPY and now into SHY using the IBD system.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=112520

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp?x=0&siteid=mktw

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

World heat map

http://www.financemaps.com/map/day

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energi

[anon.10]

Xe2dy:

I did realize that you were 2 different people. I just thought you had same style has Tuffy. My mistake. Sorry

[xe2dy]

Hello anon.10 There is a misunderstanding since tuffy88 and xe2dy are two different people. I make it a habit to read this board http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2 and that is where I met tuffy88 several years ago. To answer your question I swing trade at the moment.

Here are links to a few of the other boards I read:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www
http://market-ticker.org/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[anon.10]

xe2dy:

You have a good trading style. I have a similar one. I have a main account of 80% which is invested at all times with 46% stocks (now) 4% Cash, and 50% bonds. I also have a trading account where I trade mostly one stock of 20% of my portfolio.

I am still underwater in may main portfolio and have not done quite as well as you. But I hope by the end of the year, I will be up another 10% in main account.

Thank you for your post. Do you swing trade in your trading account or day-trade?

[xe2dy]

$XAU th'ks to wxman at TT

[xe2dy]

GDL/DZZ

[xe2dy]

Trading style of tuffy88

Still look in on Traders-Talk most days, at least once, Toni. To answer your question the above quote from my post on August 24th should answer it. I re-entered my position in SPY's in trading account on that date with a 1/3rd position. 2nd third after a 2% advance and 3rd third after next 2% advance. Remain 100% invested in trading account since then. Our main retirement portfolio is now 71% in Vanguard Index Funds (50-50 stock-bonds) 29% in the trading account. When I started the trading account in April, 2003 it was 20% in trading account and 80% in main portfolio. The trading account has outperformed the main account by that much since 2003. And the main index portfolio has been no slouch. It was down 22% at the close of business on 12/31/08. I did no trading at all in that index portfolio except to re balance at the end of 2007 & 2008. That is down from its closing high on October 9,2007 until December 31,2008. The top of the bull market. As of last Friday it was up 19.22% YTD. Getting close to break even since top of bull market. The profits in the trading portfolio make the combined portfolio's well into all time highs.

The reason I don't post much here anymore is that there is really not much for me to say regarding my method of trading.
(1) be invested when the markets are going up.
(a) Never call tops or bottom. Just stay invested when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Exit only after it goes into a downtrend. NEVER try to predict when that will happen. The market will tell you.
(2) be in short term bond funds (SHY) when the market is in a downtrend.
(a) Never predict a bottom. Just stay in SHY when the market is in a confirmed downtrend. Re-enter only AFTER it goes into a confirmed uptrend. NEVER predict a bottom. Market will tell you.

(3) Repeat.
(4) That is all there is to my style of trading.

Pretty simple. As one poster here posted a few weeks ago The system is "not nearly good enough to get a job on the street." Those street pro's must have made a lot of money in the bear market. So it is a good thing I don't want a job on the street.

Will post when I exit in trading account.

Charles

[xe2dy]

Trading ideas th'ks to diogenes227


Do not waste your money. Not a single dime. No one needs an INTRADAY stock screener. That's like firing a shotgun every day and trying to buy the single shot out of ten thousand that goes the farthest. Ridiculous. And impossible to do.

As a novice, you should first read this (several times, and take special note of item four):

5 SIMPLE THINGS ALL WEALTHY TRADERS DO (CLICK REPLY BUTTON)

Now pick the one thing (ETF, future, stock) you want to trade -- the ONE THING! You can make plenty of money playing the swings on one stock. On one ETF. In swing trading, it's the swing that matters, not the vehicle. Swing traders make money on anything they choose to trade once they have the persistence, the discipline and the experience to trade it well.

There are only four things that can happen on a swing trade (any trade for that matter) -- you have a little winner, you have a little loser, you have a big winner, you have a big loser. You can do nothing about the little winners and little losers (that's the market), but you have to be able to eliminate the big loser or you will not be able to play this game for long, and if you can't play you can't get the big winners.

Once you have your vehicle, you need to study it, study it, study it until to you can eliminate the big loser every time. That means you study price movements, stops, time frames, volume, technical indicators (this is not investing), whatever it takes to get rid of the big loser. Once you've done that, you can think about profits. You need a swing system. There is no intraday stock scanner that can help you with this; in fact, it's more likely it'll have you jumping around grabbing one big loser after another.

If I may offer a couple of shortcuts. As you can tell from this thread I believe the market move matters the most. You don't need a intraday shotgun if you pay attention to what the market is doing. Most stocks (not all, most) move with the market, up and down. I use the McClellan Summation indexes on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq to tell me what the general market is doing. I suggest you pick a stock and play it in the direction of the general market.

For instance what happened fundamentally with Google in that month from early June to early July that took it from 447 to 395? Probably not much fundamentally -- it was just a month. But the market slipped some and the NYSI declined sharply. When the NYSI turned up GOOG shot right back up to 464, and now has gone to 497 on this latest NYSI swing. Or -- holy cow! -- look at LVS! LVS went from 2 to 12, back to 6 and now to 20 since the March market bottom, all in lockstep with the NYSI. On a NYSI time frame, that is swing trading.

Forget the intraday stock scanner and find yourself a single GOOG, or a single LVS or a GDX or a IWM, or a soybean future (if you must), whatever, and study, study, study it until you can trade it well and then trade it. Hope this helps.

Good luck to you, and good trading. smile.gif

P.S. Thanks for the question. It's helped me refresh my thinking on what exactly I try to do consistently -- which is, "simplify, simplify, simplify."

[xe2dy]

5 Simple Things All Wealthy Traders Do To Gain An Edge
September 16, 2009 · By Brad · Filed Under Guest Bloggers

At one point I considered myself the luckiest person in the trading world because I was surrounded by trading experts, and had instant access to almost anyone. I lost that title after I met Tim Bourquin, Co-Founder of TraderInterviews.com. See Tim has the platform to basically ask ANY question he wants to ANY trader he wants…and he records it for his future use. Thankfully he opened his records for people like you and I to learn from and in this article he teaches us 5 things that he’s learned from the hundreds of experts he’s interviewed. Enjoy the article, comment below, and take time to visit TraderInterviews.com.

====================================================================

Over the past year I’ve spoken to hundreds of traders, many of which were recorded and posted at TraderInterviews.com. If you had asked me a few years ago how the best traders approached the markets, I would have said that they all had similar strategies. But after talking with traders of every market imaginable, I’ve found they all have very different methods.

However, while they each may use wildly different techniques (I spoke with one very wealthy trader who confirmed his chart patterns by looking at planetary movement and moon phases), all of them follow five rules without exception. Some of them make hundreds of thousands – even millions – of dollars each trading their own account. These aren’t your typical “always use a hard stop loss” type of rules . These are actual guidelines successful traders follow religiously.

In fact, I’d bet that deep down you know you should be following these rules as well but you aren’t – yet. Today is the day you can commit to doing what works for other wealthy traders and get on that same path.

Let’s get started.

1. They plan every single trade. EVERY SINGLE ONE.
Every trader I’ve talked with that makes money consistently knows the following about every single trade they take before they even begin entering a limit order into their trading platform:

a) the highest price they are willing to pay (if they are going long) or the lowest price at which they are willing to sell (if they are going short)
b) their profit target where they will exit if they are “right”
c) their stop loss where they will exit if they are “wrong”
d) the risk/reward ratio of the trade
e) the exact percentage of their account they are risking

Lots of traders do one or two of these things. Few do all of them. In simple terms they know exactly what they want to pay, how much money they anticipate making (or losing) and a very clear idea on the probability of the trade working out.

Although you might think that every great trader uses hard stops that are pre-programmed in, many don’t . However, they are highly disciplined and when their stop loss number comes up they are out. Most traders don’t have that type of hard-core discipline and so a hard stop loss is still their best option.

2. They stopped trying to pick tops and bottoms years ago
Nearly all of the classes, courses and webinars you’ll find on the Internet talk about using support and resistance of some type to find where a market is turning and how to get in before or while it does.

The funny thing is that only a very few successful traders I have ever talked to trade that way. Simply put, 95% of the traders out there that make money are buying higher highs and selling lower lows. They do the exact opposite of nearly everyone out there because they found out long ago that picking tops and bottoms is a sucker’s bet. One trader described it to me by saying that it’s much easier to just participate in what a market is already doing than trying to guess when that behavior will change. Flip-flop your strategy to agree with what the market is doing rather than guessing on when it will change its mind, and you’ll be in a much better position to make money trading.

3. They are patient with winners – and ridiculously impatient with losers.
Dennis Gartman is famous for boiling down great trading to one thing: “Do more of what is working and less of what isn’t.” Sure makes a lot of sense to me.

Most traders have a great deal of patience with their losers but get nervous about locking in gains and sell them to quickly – the exact opposite of what wealthy traders do. Wealthy traders realize that they may actually have more losing trades than winning trades so they quickly get out when they are wrong. It is the only way to ensure that they can give their winners the attention they deserve.

They coddle their winners and kick their losers to the curb without a second thought.

4. They trade one market. ONE
I’ve talked with great traders who can trade futures, forex and stocks at the same time. They are a gifted tiny minority.

The vast majority of successful traders concentrate on one market and become so comfortable with it that they begin to “know” the behavior of that market just watching price and volume. Test yourself – if you aren’t able to get rid of all your charts and simply look at price and volume to trade, you’re probably not concentrating enough on one market in order to know it’s moods. What we’re really talking about here, of course, is not the mood of the market itself but the moods of the market participants!

Focus on trading one market exceptionally well rather than try to trade whatever’s hot – that’s how wealthy traders do it.

5. Their benchmark for success is anything but money
Money changes everything. It sure does. We’re all in this to make money. The trouble is, when traders use the amount of money they make to judge their own success, something happens to them – to all of us, really – that clouds our decision-making ability.

Wealthy traders have realized this and instead focus on other things to determine if they’ve had a successful day. Whether it be how well they were able to execute on their trading plan (see rule #1), or their overall ability to predict short-term movements in the whatever they are trading, they know that if they do those things correctly, the money will follow.

Yes of course the money is important. Any trader who says otherwise is a fool. Why else would we put ourselves through this daily ride. But there is something about making it a secondary focus that allows the best traders to make better decisions. The growing trading account simply becomes a nice result – a side benefit if you will – of making good decisions and reading the market well.

Tim Bourquin
Co-Founder of TraderInterviews.com

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/09/5-simple-things-all-wealthy-traders-do-to-gain-an-edge/

[xe2dy]

Long term ...

Chart style th'ks to selecto and mss @ TT

[xe2dy]

Gold chart th'ks to johngorge at TT

[xe2dy]

Gold / Silver info thks to 4Godnwv $ chichi2

Link to COT

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39098261

[Den]

good post'

[xe2dy]

FF by alysomji

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110033&st=10

[xe2dy]

"Confidence" indicator


Th'ks to RD at TT

Th'ks to Russ at TT

[xe2dy]

TRIN / VIX

Charts by RD at TT.

[xe2dy]

$VIX BY RD

[xe2dy]

H Map +

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm5/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

NOAA map

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12903310

Historical patterns

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

Thanks to FA and QT for sharing links.

[xe2dy]

Seven Sentinels and Today's Market, SSBS or Top? I Have the Answer (Don)

"Well, at least I have a very strong opinion as to the answer. I s'pose it's possible that that is not the same thing.

Today saw all seven of seven sentinels move to buy territory. When that happens, we have a significant event, though not necessarily what most traders might expect. Sometimes it means we have a bona fide SSBS, and the kick off to a big move, like the signal that occurred on March 12, 2009 and the move that followed- a massive 50% rally on the SPX over the following three months. But many would be surprised perhaps to learn that more often - those times when there has not been a divergent set up prior to the 7 of 7, this event marks a ST top.

Many other things happened today that happen only at one of two times- at kickoff points and at ST tops. Roger's sentiment extremes are one such example. 9 to 1 Upside volume and up - like todays 25+ to 1, is another such example. Extremes of all sorts occur at kick off points and at ST tops. The trick is to be able to distinguish the difference. And that difference, imho, is "SET-UP".

I've done an exhaustive study of all internal measures of the market that we could access, and the conclusion I've reached is just what I had concluded earlier. The vast majority of internal measures made new lows on July 8, coincident with a new low in SPX. There had been NO divergent set up prior to that low. Very few internal measures showed any positive divergence to the earlier June 22 low. The positive divergences we could find were between June 22 when the SPX closed at 893 and July 8 when it closed at 879 were the NYMO (discussed earlier) which closed at a HIGHER -66 vs -79, and the 19 day moving averages of TICK and TICKQ which closed at +30 versus -50 and +132 versus-90 respectively. That's it! Indicators that did NOT show positive divergence ranged from NAMO and the rest of the McClellan Oscillators on other indices to Swenlins Trading Oscillator to Decision Point's ITVM and STVM, to both the NY and Nssdaq net new highs, to the number of SPX issues over their 50 day moving averages, to Transportation and Nasdaq averages themselves, and to many many more. A quick review of Decision Point will quickly confirm what I am saying.

The weight of the evidence says we have NOT, repeat NOT set up the internals for an advance.

When a day like today occurs that triggers all 7 of seven sentinels positive, most of the time, because the market has not done it's work in setting up the internals for an advance, that event is a "false positive" and marks a ST TOP. When that occurs, I treat it as a ST top and get fully short. That, again, occurs when there has been no divergent set up, as right now.

The other perhaps 20% of those 7 of 7 events mark a real SS Buy Signal. THAT occurs when all 7 of seven go to a buy position after a true divergent set up - like on March 12, 2009 for example. When that occurs I treat it as a REAL Seven Sentinels Buy Signal, issue an announcement, mark it on the chart and get fully long. That is NOT the case here.

CONCLUSION: This is a bull trap - a ST trading top. The correct position currently is SHORT. JMHO, of course.

We could well be in the early stages of that set up process, as todays internal strength was truly impressive. Time will tell. Right or wrong, I just wanted to make my view of today as clear as possible. Good Trading, D"



http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=108607

[xe2dy]

Using Trailing Stops to Protect Stock Profits

By Ken Little

In another article, I discussed the value of stop loss orders as insurance for the market moving against your stock. Trailing stops, a form of stop loss orders, can also protect a profit and, if you’re clever, follow a stock’s rising price. Let me explain.

First, a quick review. A stop loss order placed with your broker is a way to protect yourself from a loss, should the stock fall. The stop loss order tells your broker to sell the stock when, and if, the stock falls to a certain price.

When the stock hits this price, the stop loss order becomes a market order. A market order instructs your broker to sell immediately at the best possible price. In a volatile market, you may not get the price you wanted, but it should be close.
Protect Your Profits
That’s how you protect yourself from a bad loss. Now, here’s how you use the stop loss order to protect your profit on a stock that’s rising.

There are two ways to enter a stop loss order. You can enter a dollar amount, for example if your stock is selling at $40 per share, you might enter a stop loss order for $37.50 per share. When the stock price drops to $37.50, it trips the stop loss order and the broker sells it.

However, what if you were fortunate enough to (through careful research) to have a growth stock that was rising on a fairly steady basis? Let me set up a scenario.

You bought the stock two years ago for $25 per share and it has grown 23% each year and is now pushing $38 per share. When you can stop patting yourself on the back, you began to get a little nervous that this run of growth might be coming to an end.
Headed for a Fall
The P/E or Price to Earnings Ratio is higher than at any point in the past three years making you think that the stock is overvalued and due for a fall.

You could take your profits and run, but what if the stock still has some legs and there’s more growth ahead? On the other hand, if it takes a fall, you stand to lose some of your handsome profit.

Here’s where the stop loss order bridges the gap and gives you an alternative that keeps you in the stock, but protects you profit.

You simply give your broker a stop loss order called a trailing stop, which is a percentage below the market price. For example, you might tell your broker you want a trailing stop 10% below the market price.

Trailing Stop

Using our example, the trailing stop would kick in at $34.20 per share ($38 x 10% = $3.80; $38 - $3.80 = $34.20).

If the stock keeps moving up, so will the trailing stop. For example:

* At $39 per share, the trailing stop is $35.51
* At $40 per share, the trailing stop is $36.00
* At $41 per share, the trailing stop is $36.90
* At $42 per share, the trailing stop is $37.80

As long as the stock keeps rising or holds relatively steady, nothing happens. However, if it turns south and hits your trailing stop, your broker sells and you pocket your profit. It is important to note, the trailing stop only goes up, it never goes down with a market price.

The trick is setting the percentage at a level that will pick up a true price drop as opposed to normal daily price fluctuations.
Conclusion
Several trading techniques use trailing stops. This example is a simple strategy to protect your profit. More advanced traders use it in combination with other maneuvers to extend their advantage. However, this strategy works just fine for beginning to intermediate investors who want to protect a profit, but let a winner run as long as possible.

Suggested Reading

Trading BasicsStock PricesTools of Fundamental Analysis
Related Articles

* Stop Loss Orders - How Stop Loss Orders Can Protect You
* Protect Stocks while on Vacation - Use Stop Loss Orders to Protect Stock Pr...
* Intro to Stock Trading - Trailing Stop Orders
* Stock Orders - Understanding Stock Order Entry
* Stop Loss Orders - Market or Limit?

http://stocks.about.com/od/tradingbasics/a/tailingstop.htm

[xe2dy]

The chart pattern trader.

http://thechartpatterntrader.com/

The following annotated chart is provided by Don at TT.





The following annotated chart is provided by Spielchkr at TT.

[xe2dy]

Karl Denninger

"In light of what I said before about drains of liquidity....



The salmon-colored day is the one to pay attention to.

It is always dangerous to assume that an expiring block of paper will not be rolled. It usually is. But - if it is not, in this case, roughly $100 billion in cash will come out of the "sloshing cash" in the banking system.

Of late it has been unusual for there to be visible OMO. Note that the table's first three columns are zeros - this is the result of The Fed's "unusual" policies, and is why my usual FedWatch has produced no information via this route for months, unlike the September 24th Ticker.

(TIOs can usually be ignored as they rarely have any impact on the overall condition of system liquidity.)

But the TAF maturation, if it does not roll, is a big deal.

What's T+3? Monday/Tuesday after options expiration, a nasty time for a liquidity drain to show up. If that drain does happen on Thursday you can expect to see it in the market some time within the next week, probably Monday or Tuesday, and it won't be pretty.

File this one in the "teach a man to fish" department; you can find this data, any time you'd like it, at http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

Now you know how to read one of the tools that I use to watch Ben and his Merry Men - the tool that, in fact, caught him in September of 2008.

UPDATE 9:04 AM: The Fed has just announced an intent to award $48B in TAF paper, implying that about half of the $100 billion will roll and the rest drain. Again you cannot be sure until the day passes, and sometimes until the next day, but this is what it looks like."

[xe2dy]

Link to more Woody...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=106998

[xe2dy]

60 min $NYA

Thamks ti Woody at TT.

[xe2dy]

$SPX by RD + others

[xe2dy]

I sure hope he does! In case Don does update and re-post at TT we'll have a 'copy' here that's easy to find. The $BPCOMPQ chart is also Don's idea.

[frenchee]

Ed,

Is Don updating this chart manually?

[xe2dy]

IYB

[xe2dy]

Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter

[xe2dy]

Bradley

http://www.amanita.at/i/bradley/bradley2009.GIF

[xe2dy]

Follow the 'recovery' here...

http://recovery.gov/

http://www.whitehouse.gov/

[xe2dy]

$SPX th'ks to RD

[xe2dy]

FAZ, BAC, C and FAS

[xe2dy]

Weekly charts

[xe2dy]

Links to TA Training

Goto 2nd message post, several free courses.

http://www.informedtrades.com/198071-sample-trading-journal-tracker-portfolio-management-software.html

And spreed sheet site.

http://tradingspreadsheets.com/default.aspx

[xe2dy]

SHIPPING

















http://seekingalpha.com/article/114006-excel-maritime-carriers-set-up-to-excel?source=email

[xe2dy]

Current



























Add SPX, NDX and INDU for reference







Also TNA

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp?x=0&siteid=mktw

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

World heat map

http://www.financemaps.com/map/day

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energies

[xe2dy]

Long Term by TP

[xe2dy]

Weekly Buy / Sale Signals

Chart style thanks to Leavitt Brothers.





I'll add this too.



http://leavittbrothers.com/stocks-options-futures-trading-videos/2009/01/key-charts-heading-into-2009.cfm

[xe2dy]

% of NAS above 50, 150 & 200MA

[xe2dy]

Karl Denninger : 25 predictions for 2009


"Ok, so with that cheery backdrop, here you go with my predictions for 2009.... and I will prefix this by saying this is a list I hope proves to be entirely incorrect. Perhaps there really is a Unicorn that craps skittles even though I've yet to find it - this is one round of predictions I'm willing to take a zero score on come December 09."

* The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P 500. Why does CNBC continue to put people on the air who, if you listened to them, cost you 40% or more of your money?

* Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Other capital goods beyond housing will see real price declines for the first time since the 1930s. Debt is inherently deflationary; the "hyperinflationists" will once again be shown to be wrong (how many years running will it be now?)

* Housing prices will continue to decline. I believe we're about halfway done with the price correction. Those who think we will turn this in 2009 are wrong - unless we get an all-on collapse in prices in early 2009, which I do not believe will occur. I've heard several claims we will have positive year-over-year home price changes in 2009. I'll take the other side of that bet.

* The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. We will see either a Treasury Market selloff or worse, severe instability in the dollar at some point in 2009.

* GDP will post a 12-month negative number and there is a decent shot that we will actually see an official depression print before the end of 2009, defined as a 10% decline peak-to-trough.

* The Stock Market has not bottomed although you may think it has for a few months. The annual range will be quite extreme; I would not be surprised at all to see 1,000 touched on the SPX in the first part of the year. I believe the SPX will at least touch 500 in the next 12-24 months and the current bottom will not hold. It is possible that we could see a crash to SPX 300 and DOW 3,000 some time this year, probably after the spring (when the "Obama Halo" wears off - if it isn't blown off by economic events first.) Yes, this means I am predicting a fifty percent swing in the SPX in 2009. Lots of money to be made as a trader if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor.

* Precious metals will not be a safe haven. The callers for $1600 and above on gold will be wrong, unless there is a major military conflict. I do not rate that probability as particularly high, but it is an event (along with a major terrorism incident - nuclear or biochemical - that would cause a rocket shot in Gold prices), so I am hedging that call. The risk of this sort of "response" to the economic crisis is, however, real, and will rise significantly going into 2010 and beyond. We'll revisit this one (a major war) next year.

* The Dollar will not collapse. This is not because we're in great shape or will truly recover, it is because the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. Last year pundits were all calling for the dollar to collapse to 40 - it didn't happen. Now they're calling the dollar's strength a "Bear market rally." Nonsense; the simple truth is that while we're in bad shape the rest of the world is literally on the precipice of a full-on collapse. European banks are more-levered and less-transparent than our banks as just one example.

* The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it - yet. Needless to say that would rocket the Dollar Index but it won't be our strength that does it - it will be their weakness.

* The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. The math on this is simple - the "consumerist legion of more" has run its course and all that's left is debt. It hurts and bad; expecting the American Consumer to cut off his other arm is just plain dumb. By the way this is a good thing in the longer term for America once the excess debt is forced out and defaulted through the system.

* Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse and most commercial Real Estate REITs will be either insolvent or limping on life support. There will be calls for bailouts (which may be attempted; the calls are already starting to be heard) but it won't matter - a failed business is a failed business, bailout or no, and overcapacity must go away before sustainable business conditions can return.

* Along with the above, expect 10% of all retail stores to close, and that number could go as high as 20%. That's not going to be fun; there will be hundreds of malls that wind up literally shuttered across America. Stay away from most retailers and property groups as investments. Firms like SPG and VNO are levitating on the strength of their dividends (7-10% yields at present); I believe this is a sucker play; if retailer defaults force dividend cuts (and I believe they will) the commercial REITs will go straight into the toilet.

* Several states will get in serious financial trouble and outright default of one or more is possible in 2009. California leads this parade. But even if there is a default on a state basis, the effect will be highly localized, as county and municipal governments vary in their wisdom and budget process. The real pain comes in state-wide social and educational programs. Be very careful if you are in municipal bonds or thinking of getting back into them (I recommended they be dumped in 2007 - look at what has happened to the closed-end funds in 08! Aieeee!) as the default risk is VERY REAL. If you're buying individual issues and do the work to determine not only the risk of default but also the likely recovery if they do default there are some good deals out there - but only if you're doing the work. "Trust me" (as in buying funds, whether mutual funds or closed-end stuff) is very dangerous.

* Mortgages are not done. The story last year was "Subprime." This year's will be "ALT-A", "Option ARMs" and so-called "Prime". The Fed and Treasury know this, which is why they are playing games with "agency" debt in a desperate attempt to clear this market before the ticking nuclear devices go off. The amount of debt involved in these "bad deals" is vastly higher than that in the "subprime" space and if they fail to contain it (a near certainty) Round #2 of severe bank instability gets served up on us in the second half of 2009.

* If you want to refinance a mortgage you may get one brief shot at it with long rates around 4%. You're nuts to buy outright unless you intend to die in the home, but if you have a solid reason to be obtaining a mortgage or wish to refinance you will probably get the opportunity. This assumes the "buydown game" gets going before Treasuries dislocate; if you get the opportunity take it as it is likely to be fleeting. The few places in this country where homes wind up selling for 2.5x incomes (on average) and you have an opportunity to finance at 4% and change will be decent buying opportunities - if you're sure you can cash flow the note (e.g. your job and/or income stream is not in any danger of collapsing.)

* Those who have said that the corporate bond market is being "unreasonable" in its expectation for defaults will start to look like the jackasses they are. Actual default rates (not projections) on non-investment-grade debt will skyrocket starting in 2009 and there will be no sign of it turning around this year. If you're playing in this area of the market thinking that "the worst is behind us", I hope you like walking around bald as the haircuts handed out to folks like you will be especially severe and delivered with a straight razor.

* The calls for "more lending" to consumers and businesses will go exactly nowhere. The problem isn't credit availability - there's plenty of money available to lend if you are credit-worthy. Those who are being turned down now simply aren't credit-worthy when one looks at what they want to do with the money and what they're backing their repayment capacity with. The more "credit stimulus" is thrown into the economy (and there will be more) the worse the downturn will get.

* General Motors and Chrysler will fail to meet their targets and it will be labor that sinks the deal. At least one and probably both will wind up in some form of bankruptcy in 2009. The UAW is insane; Gettlefinger needs to be strung up by his genitals and pelted with rotten tomatoes by his union "brothers", and if they had a lick of sense they'd have already done it. They obviously don't. I give this mess six months tops, with Ford as the only possible survivor. The recent GMAC games show exactly how desperate they are; 0% 5 year loans to people with 620 FICO scores are flat-out insane and the default rates on those loans are going to wind up in economics textbooks five years hence.

* Protectionism and currency manipulation will rear their ugly heads in 2009, originating not here but in Asia as their economies go straight into the toilet. China and Japan are at severe risk here.

* Commodities will appear to be headed for a new bull market but this will turn out to be a false hope as demand continues to collapse. Attempts to manage oil output to prop up the price will fail. Several oil-producing nations will find themselves in serious economic trouble, with Russia being in the lead but by no means alone.

* Sovereign debt defaults will number at least three with many other nations on "watch" for same; we had one last year (Iceland.) Noise about a US "AAA" downgrade will continue. Highest on the list for probables are Russia, which needs oil at roughly double its current price - and stable - to be financially viable. Not going to happen in the near term.

* China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down - this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term. Those who think China will be "ok" are deluded; they have a horrifying overcapacity problem (debt-financed, of course) and there is no way for them to get out of it. They are truly going to "take it in both holes" down the road, but the worst of it won't be in 2009 - that is still a year or two in the future.

* Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. It won't be because they want to screw the US (although they should have a long time ago, given our profligate and unsustainable habits), it will be because they will be forced to redirect their resources inward as their own economies collapse.

* "The City" (London to be precise, Britain generally) will be recognized as getting it "worse than we are" (in America.) This will be the first of many validations of my thesis "we're screwed, they're gang-raped."

* Things will get "revolting" in a number of nations. Not here in America. Yet. If we're lucky the American Sheep will wake up and stage some of that peaceful protest stuff I outlined above. If we're not so fortunate 2010 could be really bad.

In terms of recommendations its simple - rallies are to be sold, cash is to be raised and prudence is to be practiced in your own personal financial affairs. Don't get creative in all things finance, get stingy and prudent. Your personal financial survival could well depend on it.

http://market-ticker.org/

[xe2dy]

Kass: 20 Surprises for 2009

"Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme."

1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff's strategy through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds. There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his family's lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are threatened. Madoff's lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy.

2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting, trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity, but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund industry.

3. The nation's commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama's broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market never experiences anything like the weakness exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling in the new year's first six months.

4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008's black hole), the massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity rebounds and labor costs are well under control.

5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling, mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and financial stocks also advance smartly. The year's first-half market rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to China's economic growth limit the stock market's progress in the back half of the year.

6. A second quarter "growth scare" bursts the bubble in the government bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets. By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide reserve assets, down from 2008's year-end at 62% and down from 70% only five years ago. China's 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the rate of growth in China's real GDP moves towards zero by the second quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social safety net turns China's fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S. Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it's piggy bank of foreign reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond yields.

7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world's commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009's worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world's currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse.

8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote - Cramer on AMD - Stock Picks) files bankruptcy.

9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009. The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan, endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is down by well over 50%.

10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds (especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year's largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW Quote - Cramer on TROW - Stock Picks) and AllianceBernstein (AB Quote - Cramer on AB - Stock Picks) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM Quote - Cramer on LM - Stock Picks).

11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year's second half.

12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major automobile manufacturers.

13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.

14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR Quote - Cramer on EVR - Stock Picks), Lazard (LAZ Quote - Cramer on LAZ - Stock Picks) and Greenhill (GHL Quote - Cramer on GHL - Stock Picks) flourish. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS Quote - Cramer on MS - Stock Picks) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS Quote - Cramer on DIS - Stock Picks) purchases Carnival (CCL Quote - Cramer on CCL - Stock Picks). Microsoft (MSFT Quote - Cramer on MSFT - Stock Picks) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO Quote - Cramer on YHOO - Stock Picks) at $5 a share.

15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression, but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a new book, The New Depression: How Leverage's Long Tail Will Result in Bread Lines. "Kudlow & Company's" Larry Kudlow proclaims that it's time to harvest the "mustard seeds" of growth and, in an admission of the Democrats' growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale's Dr. Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.

16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company). Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)

17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC's Steve Cohen. The New York Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a child together (out of wedlock).

18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage. Two popular CNBC commentators "go mainstream" and become regulars on NBC news programs.

19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT Quote - Cramer on NYT - Stock Picks) teeters financially.

20. The Middle East's infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to "market conditions." Lower oil prices, weakening European economies and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East's markets and economies.

Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog on RealMoney Silver that features real-time shorting opportunities on the market.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10455209/3/kass-20-surprises-for-2009.html

[xe2dy]

One heck of a post by Chichi2 ...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34488603

[xe2dy]

SPX th'ks to TP

[xe2dy]

Thank you, brother. And a Merry Christmas to you too!

[frenchee]

Merry Christmas Ed!

[xe2dy]

The Obama-Biden Plan

http://change.gov/agenda/economy_agenda/

Scroll down to Section 4, Small Business and think TNA.

[xe2dy]

Post at FSLR regarding Obama cranks up the green revolution

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34341592