Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp & Prod Bear 2X Shares (DRIP)

[dealerschool2006]

I would have made $1k yesterday on a GUSH call, I could have made another $1k on a GUSH put, now the 60 call is back to 2.00 but my other play that i shoulda sold earlier today is down as well...Oil is down as well...and I don't want to take a loss, what to do what to do...

[Pisd]

I think they really mean it, gl.. DRIP$...

[softballdaddy]

I agree, oil beat down by Covid and Russian/Saudi dumping...I look for WTI and Brent to increase in $ per barrel

That said, most people that know me have me on ignore

[dealerschool2006]

I thought so too, but the markets and oil wouldn't have rebounded the week after election results...oil will rebound to above 60s...DRIP is only good for near term...GUSH will be the one to get into for the long term...

[Pisd]

New administration against pipelines, pickups, etc, buyer DRIP$ $19...

[No-Quarter]

You cant play them all.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

boy I really missed out on the GUSH run-up but since then I made some $$$ elsewhere and put it in my special holding for now and playing with like $5K...DRIP may be going down for a long time until next summer...

[dealerschool2006]

The DRIP dial slope looked like it bottomed @ 37.60 closing price and curled up yet the pps has come down $9 since then...I bot more yesterday, DRIP gapped down, I want to buy more but market is on fire...and I don't want to sell with a buy indicator approaching...dial slope is @ 1.30 which is at lowest ever...I'm in same boat as you with BOIL...I was thinking of buying BOIL on the 19th...just gotta ride it out i guess...I'm at a loss with my TZA as well...I'd rather take that loss and buy more DRIP...I'll wait until tomorrow or maybe when DRIP hits lower 20s I'll buy more if that happens...

[dealerschool2006]

I just sold my GUSH 252 @ 33.25...I'm not seeing the same type of buying I saw on Monday...maybe bears are the way to go for next few days...I'm looking at getting into TZA, Russel 2000 is at all time high...

[dealerschool2006]

what about TZA??? it's paired with TNA...I'm thinking correction comming soon, but what do i know, aay???

[No-Quarter]

This chart tells me it is/was time to buy the Bear FANG 2x and 3x ETF's early this week. Not too late to still get in.
Live link here; http://schrts.co/KJyPhEKY



The associated RRC chart is a day behind the individual xxxx:DIAL slope charts above. If you look closely, you can see the leading segment of each ticker line in the bottom left quadrant just starting to curl up. The RRC chart seems to provide good confirmation
Live link here; https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=FNGD,SOXS,SQQQ,LABD&b=DIAL&p=d&y=1&t=10&f=tail,d&c=true
Note, you may have to copy and paste the RRC links into your browser to get them to work.



Here is the corresponding Bull FANG 2x and 3x ETF chart.
Live link here; http://schrts.co/HqBPCRpb



Again, the associated RRC chart provides confirmation a day or two behind the xxxx:DIAL slope charts. Notice the leading segments in the top right quadrant beginning to roll over. This chart tells me Monday and/or Tuesday of this week was the time to sell these.
Live link here; https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=FNGU,TQQQ,SOXL,LABU&b=DIAL&p=d&y=1&t=10&f=tail,d



Here is a chart of the SPDR sector 2x and 3x Bull ETF's.
Live link here; http://schrts.co/mavfHuQA



...and the associated RRC chart.
Live link here; https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=GUSH,RXL,FAS,DUSL,TECL,UGE&b=DIAL&p=d&y=1&t=10&f=tail,d&c=true



And lastly the SPDR sector 2x and 3x Bear ETF's that shows it is still too early to move on the GUSH/DRIP pair.
Live link here; http://schrts.co/BteKnzSe



...and the associated RRC chart confirming the same.
Live link here; https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=DRIP,SIJ,TECS,FAZ,RXD,SZK&b=DIAL&p=d&y=1&t=10&f=tail,d&c=true


All this has been working well for me. GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

have you shared this with Duma on this board??? i'm sure those on that board would like to see how this works...I appreciate you taking the time to explain all this...thank you so much...

[No-Quarter]

DIAL is a fixed-income ETF, not unlike a money market mutual fund. Stockcharts does not offer money markets funds for charting purposes (mutual funds typically have 5 letter ticker symbols, and money market mutual funds typically have 'XX' as their last two letters). Try a search in Stockcharts yourself. Oddly, you won't find any.

When comparing an ETF to a fixed-income fund on a slope chart, it will display a slope rising or falling compared to the same fixed income value day after day/week after week/fund to fund.

I found when I use the slope of the ticker 'naked' (not comparing it to DIAL) the day to day variations of the slope line often becomes too whippy.

You can see this for yourself when you look at the RRG rotation chart of the SPDR ETF's on Stockcharts. Link here;

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=XLU,XLE,XLF,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLK,XLP,XLRE,XLC,XLB&b=SPY&p=d&y=1&t=5&f=tail,d

Hard to make much sense from it other than what quadrant each fund is in.



The default 'Benchmark' for this RRG chart is SPY. On an RRG chart, Benchmark means this is what each ETF is being compared to.

Now make one simple change. Change the Benchmark fund from SPY to DIAL, and you get this chart.



Much easier for me to see side by side comparisons when DIAL is used as the benchmark

FYI, a Slope chart is basically a linear version of a RRG rotation chart.

All this took me years of trial and error to hone in on this simple method to steadily increase my retirement funds. 4-6 trades per year for each of the twelve 2x and 3x ETF pairs I follow, and I have been able to achieve a 50% to 100% gain/year for the past several years.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

why do you use DIAL??? I tried other tickers to see the difference, not much really...I noticed that GUSH is still a hold, and that's because CVX had ex div day, so CVX gapped down and kept GUSH from rising more, just like XOM did last week, but the day after XOM flew higher, so that's what I expect of CVX tomorrow, yet those EMAs are still pointed up with an extreme slope...

[No-Quarter]

The GUSH:DIAL and DRIP:DIAL slopes told me it was still too early today to sell GUSH and buy DRIP, but the six SPDR BEAR pairs I watch did say to me today was the day to buy FAZ, SIJ, and TECS ... RDX too, but I didn't act on that one.

Live charts for you here;

http://schrts.co/CtPxAWVF
http://schrts.co/kNkeRaMc

GLTU

[dealerschool2006]

Its really interesting watching DIAL change from opening to know with DRIP gap up and GUSH gap down...now GUSH is + and DRIP is -...

[dealerschool2006]

charts do also show anticipated time of a peak...only reason why the previous cycle was adverted was election results over last weekend...market rally was an unanticipated event that created a who;e new cycle...I anticipate the previous cycle to finish by markets filling the gap up...but it didn't...as shown by dial slope...wow...really crazy stuff here...I anticipate a rollover after tomorrow or thursday at least...

[No-Quarter]

Annotated charts for you. Let me know if questions. GLTY

[No-Quarter]

I used to do the same. I thought I was so smart that I could see things in the chart that were not there yet, AND I was sure would appear soon. Time after time, I was wrong, and ended up kicking myself for moving too soon. Now rather than hoping the chart will go the way I predict, I simply follow what the chart is actually telling me that day.

http://schrts.co/gCanMRjH
http://schrts.co/WJjREfSi

On the DRIP chart (live link above), the DRIP:DIAL slope is suggesting a bottom is nearing. Possibly later this week, BUT WAIT FOR IT TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN. Watch for the GUSH:DIAL slope 'wave' to actually bottom and turn up. The first day after the bottom of the slope 'wave' ACTUALLY OCCURS will be the day to buy DRIP again. Ride the DRIP wave up, and then sell when the wave tops out and rolls over, then take the funds and move over to GUSH and ride the GUSH wave up. When DRIP:DIAL slope is at a top, GUSH:DIAL is at a bottom. When GUSH:DIAL slope is at a top, DRIP:DIAL is at a bottom. Jump back and forth with the same funds and watch them grow.

With this GUSH/DRIP ETF chart pair, you are not looking for home runs. Just consistent singles and doubles, BUT an occasional home run WILL occur.

GUSH most recently bottomed on Friday Oct 30th. The next day the market was open and I could buy was the following Monday, Nov 2, and I bought at $20. It closed today at $30. When GUSH:DIAL slope tops out this cycle, it will be a 50% gain for me, and that is a home run in my book.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

I ended up selling DRIP for a loss @ 39.11...breaks my heart but i bot 252 shares of GUSH @ 30.77...I don't want to bottom out on DRIP, and i want to take advantage of what GUSH might have in store for another gap up tomorrow...

[dealerschool2006]

this chart is pure technical w/o the politics and news...unless DIAL is based on that...I am a cosin wave trying to make it in a sin wave world, what my outlook expectations turn out to be opposite...this week we will see whether June's DRIP bottom will be worse or the same...I'm selling soon to wait it out, not getting into GUSH, my luck the something will happen and I'll lose more...

[No-Quarter]

Here are live links for you;

http://schrts.co/gCanMRjH
http://schrts.co/WJjREfSi

The upper bar chart for each ETF has three EMA's, red, green, and blue. The 13 day EMA is the most important. The 8 is an early indicator, the 21 is a late confirmation indicator. The lower GUSH:DIAL and DRIP:DIAL chart is a 13 day slope of the equity compared to a stable value fund with the ticker symbol DIAL. What I pay attention to is the slope chart. I look for the first derivative of the slope to change from positive to negative, and again from negative to positive.

https://sites.google.com/a/g.horrycountyschools.net/shuford-s-site/ab-calculus/chapter-3/3-3

I buy the day after the first derivative from down to up is identified, and sell the day after the up to down derivative is identified. I identify the derivative with a red horizontal line, and identify the first day after, the buy/sell day, with a yellow highlight collum.

The actual performance of all this is measured as follows;
For the 3 month duration shown on these charts and starting with a $1000 amount...

$1000 - 16% = $840 (GUSH on 25SEP)
+7.1% = $899 (DRIP on 2OCT)
+6.8 = $960 (GUSH on 16OCT)
+8.8% = $1045 (DRIP on 2NOV)

Yeah, the past 3 months covered in the above charts shows I am up just $45 for every $1000 at risk. A paltry 4.5%. It has been a tough 7-8 months for the GUSH/DRIP pair. But so far this year, I am up actually ~30%. In years past, when the GUSH/DRIP pair were true 3x EFT's rather than the 2X they are now, I exceeded 100%/year several times.

This works with many other 3x ETF pairs too, such as FNGU/FNGD, SOXL/SOXS, TQQQ/SQQQ, FAS/FAZ, BOIL/KOLD, AGQ/ZSL, UCO/SCO, and LABU/LABD.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

chart is outdated from Friday's rally...DRIP

[No-Quarter]

Here are the corrected charts. In my previous post, I showed all transactions inside the yellow columns as buys, not buys and sells. Sorry for any confusion. GLTY

[No-Quarter]

I read as much as I can, but pay the most attention to the charts. The GUSH/DRIP charts I use are below.




Here are live links for you;

http://schrts.co/gCanMRjH
http://schrts.co/WJjREfSi

The upper bar chart for each ETF has three EMA's, red, green, and blue. The 13 day EMA is the most important. The 8 is an early indicator, the 21 is a late confirmation indicator. The lower GUSH:DIAL chart is a 13 day slope of the equity compared to a stable value fund with the ticker symbol DIAL. What I pay attention to is the slope chart. I look for the first derivative of the slope to change from positive to negative, and again from negative to positive.

https://sites.google.com/a/g.horrycountyschools.net/shuford-s-site/ab-calculus/chapter-3/3-3

I buy the day after the first derivative from down to up is identified, and sell the day after the up to down derivative is identified. I identify the derivative with a red horizontal line, and identify the first day after, the buy/sell day, with a yellow highlight collum.

The actual performance of all this is measured as follows;
For the 3 month duration shown on these charts and starting with a $1000 amount...

$1000 - 16% = $840 (GUSH on 25SEP)
+7.1% = $899 (DRIP on 2OCT)
+6.8 = $960 (GUSH on 16OCT)
+8.8% = $1045 (DRIP on 2NOV)

Yeah, the past 3 months covered in the above charts shows I am up just $45 for every $1000 at risk. A paltry 4.5%. It has been a tough 7-8 months for the GUSH/DRIP pair. But so far this year, I am up actually ~30%. In years past, when the GUSH/DRIP pair were true 3x EFT's rather than the 2X they are now, I exceeded 100%/year several times.

This works with many other 3x ETF pairs too, such as FNGU/FNGD, SOXL/SOXS, TQQQ/SQQQ, FAS/FAZ, BOIL/KOLD, AGQ/ZSL, UCO/SCO, and LABU/LABD.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

I sold my DRIP at a loss 193 @ 46.55 gapped up @ openning, gaps usually get filled early on, and i bot 346 GUSH @ 26...will hold to over 27, 2 days ago high was 27.42...wel...Oil dropped quickly which sent the GUSH up trend to drop so I sold @ 26.405, was waiting for 26.7 or so but i made some $$$ and got a few more shares of DRIP 198 @ 45.985...as I'm wrote this GUSH went up to 26.87...oh well...boy this is really making me nervous trading like this wow...looked online for answers found this...seems like DRIP will be a good hold barring some wild rides like Monday's...

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday cut its 2020 global oil demand forecast, citing a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic, with vaccines unlikely to have much of an impact until well into next year.

https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2621206/iea-cuts-2020-global-oil-demand-forecast

[dealerschool2006]

was today a reversal for DRIP from the premature pop in markets on Monday??? We will see, I'm hoping for a rebound to 80 or higher...its amazing the amount of cycles between DRIP and GUSH throughout a normal year...I'm going to experiment, looks like I bot in middle of cycles @ 62...

[No-Quarter]

FYI, below is today's NatGas and Crude update from here - http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html

December Natural Gas Rallies Ahead Of November Expiration As Investors Eye Volatile November Temperature Outlook; Consolidation Continues In The Natural Gas Sector As EQT Buys Chevron’s Gas Assets To Boost Its Status As Leading Producer; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Inventory Build In This Week’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Rebound Today As Central US Warms & Zeta Makes Landfall

6:00 AM EDT, Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Front-month natural gas prices settled Tuesday nearly flat ahead of Wednesday’s expiration while the most-active December contract saw modest gains. November 2020 gas finished down less than a penny to $3.02/MMBTU. Meanwhile, the December 2020 contract—which will become the front-month contract after the close of today’s trading—continued its recent bullish run, gaining 6 cents to $3.31/MMBTU. As a result, the 1X ETF UNG, which holds December contracts, gained +1.9% while the 2x ETF BOIL, which holds January 2021 contracts, was up+2.9%. Fundamentally, there was no significant change to explain the session’s rally, with the near-term temperature outlook still pointing towards a milder start to November—though the model trends have been inconsistent and volatile over the past 36 hours–and LNG exports and production seeing offsetting declines. Despite the gains in the winter contracts, it was another rough day for E&Ps with two of my larger holdings, COG and SWN, seeing declines with additional losses in RRC, CNX, and AR. The exception to the sell-off was EQT which gained +3.0%, although the stock gave back all of these gains after-hours after news broke that the company would be buying Chevron’s natural gas assets, partially financed by a public offering of 20,000,000 shares at $15.50/share, 4% below Tuesday’s close.

While the long-term fundamental picture for natural gas remains very bullish, the commodity is getting a bit ahead of itself at the moment and given the potential for warmer temperatures in early November, I would not be surprised to see some profit-taking and for prices to pull back over the next week or so. I would view any retreat as a buying opportunity given the highly favorable supply/demand imbalance and I will consider boosting my long BOIL stake. Additionally, I am also considering adding to my EQT long position. The acquisition of Chevron’s assets will boost EQT’s natural gas production capacity to nearly 6 BCF/day, by far the largest of any domestic producer and allowing it to dictate supply across the Eastern US. My price target on this company is $25/share, although this may wind up being conservative given its recent moves.

Latest API-Forecast Crude Oil & Refined Product Inventory Changes

Figure 1: Click here for more information on on oil storage.

Meanwhile, oil prices reversed some of Monday’s losses ahead of today’s EIA Petroleum Status Report as Hurricane Zeta forced yet another shut-in of Gulf of Mexico production platforms. The front-month December 2020 contract settled at $39.57/barrel, up $1.01/barrel or 2.6%. As of Tuesday afternoon, the BSEE reported that 49.5% or 0.9 MMbbls/day of Gulf production had been shut-in, temporarily tightening the supply/demand imbalance. By the time production ramps back up by the weekend, a total of 3-5 MMbbls of supply will have likely been lost. Meanwhile, the EIA will release is weekly Petroleum Status Report for October 17-23 this morning at 10:30 AM EDT. After the close of trading on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that it was expecting a +4.6 MMbbl crude oil inventory build, a moderate 3.4 MMbbls bearish versus the 5-year average. Should it verify, storage levels would climb back to 492.8 MMbbls while the storage surplus versus the 5-year average would climb to +40.2 MMbbls. Additionally, the API is also expecting a that gasoline inventories rose by +0.1 MMbbls, a similarly moderately bearish 3.1 MMbbls above the 5-year average -3.0 MMbbl draw. On the other hand, distillate stocks are expected to slide by -5.3 MMbbls, 3.0 MMbbls bullish versus the 5-year average. Overall, Total Petroleum Inventories (crude oil + gasoline + distillates) are expected to fall by -0.6 MMbbls, a moderate +3.5 MMbbls bearish versus the 5-year average. Following the release of the API data, natural gas gave up the majority of Tuesday’s gains after hours, sliding to around $38.70/barrel by late evening. Already facing headwinds of anemic demand due to COIVD-19, rising inventories could put further bearish pressure on the sector. However, with prices already sub-$40/barrel, near-term downside should be limited. I am neutral to cautiously bullish longer term and am maintaining a $42.50/barrel upside price target. Should WTI drop under $37.50/barrel, I will have a low threshold to add to my long UCO position.

Check back after 10:30 AM EDT on my Oil Inventories Page HERE for the latest on the EIA’s official storage numbers.

Today’s Forecast Departure From Normal High Temperatures

Figure 2: Click here for more information on on the near-term forecast.

Natural gas demand will fall today as temperatures finally begin to moderate across the central US. The core of the chill will persist across west Texas where a rare October snow storm could bring a half foot of snow to areas from Lubbock, TX to Amarillo, TX. Highs in these areas will be stuck in the low-to-mid 30s, upwards of 40F below-average. But while the entire Central Plains will remain well below-average, the magnitude of the anomalies will be considerably smaller. Omaha, NE will “warm” into the upper 40s while Minneapolis, MN will see the lower 40s and Chicago, IL near 50F, each around 10F below-average, but 10F-15 warmer than 24-48 hours ago. Additionally, it will be another warm day across the Eastern Seaboard with Richmond, VA nearing 80F, Washington, DC the lower 70s and Philadelphia, PA the upper 60s, 5F-10F warmer-than-normal. Across the Deep South, all eyes will be on Hurricane Zeta, which will make landfall this evening near the mouth of the Mississippi River, likely as a Category 1 storm. The storm will be moving quickly and will bring strong winds and heavy rain from New Orleans well inland to Birmingham, AL to Atlanta, GA and eventually into the Carolinas. Temperatures will be seasonally mild across this region today with highs in the 70s to near 80F. Overall, today’s forecast mean population-weighted nationwide temperature will warm by +2.3F from Tuesday to 56.2F, still -0.3F below-average. Total Degree Days (TDDs) will fall to 11.8 TDDs today, still 1.2 TDDs greater than normal and the 11th most for October 28. Click HERE for more on today’s temperature and degree day outlook.

Projected Realtime Natural Gas Inventories

Figure 3: Click here for more information on natural gas inventories.

Based on this forecast and early-cycle pipeline data, I am projecting a +0.5 BCF/day daily natural gas storage injection, a nearly 5 BCF gain from yesterday’s-4 BCF/day draw but still 7 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average. By tonight, projected Realtime natural gas inventories will hold nearly steady at 3954 BCF. The storage surplus versus the 5-year average will narrow to +251 BCF while the year-over-year surplus will fall by -4 BCF to +245 BCF. Click HERE for more on today’s projected injection and Realtime inventories. Per early-cycle numbers, LNG export demand will inch slightly higher to 9.0 BCF/day today, up 0.1 BCF from Tuesday and up 1.7 BCF from 2019. The gains will be driven by Sabine Pass which will climb back above 4.0 BCF/day, offset by Cameron which will see its volumes slip back under 1.0 BCF/day as the Calcasieu Shipping Channel continues to face restrictions due to a sunken barge from Hurricane Delta. Click HERE for more on today’s LNG export demand. Meanwhile, natural gas production will hold at 86.7 BCF/day, unchanged from Tuesday and down a steep 8.4 BCF/day from 2019. Production is down around 2.3 BCF/day from last weekend’s highs. More than half of these declines are driven by Gulf of Mexico shut-ins associated with Hurricane Zeta with Gulf production holding at 0.7 BCF/day for today. As a result, by this weekend, I expect production to rebound back towards the 88 BCF/day level, or slightly under. Click HERE for more on daily natural gas production.


Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

[dealerschool2006]

DRIP follows Oil Producers which follow Oil prices...I expect Oil producer tax season sell off up to eoy regardless of oil prices...

[No-Quarter]

Link to live chart;

http://schrts.co/MzuVIMHB

http://schrts.co/bFcbfrHd

[No-Quarter]

I chart the futures, then buy/sell the ETF's. Personel preference.

I see crude oil as currently range-bound between ~$37.5 and ~$45. Draw your own lines though. The first two yellow ovals are recent past. I am watching/expecting the third (dashed line) to be a repeat.

GLTY

[dealerschool2006]

where is DRIP retracing to???? looks fine to me, retracement starts on Jan 2, 2021...

[No-Quarter]

Nice bounce up this week!

Don't ride it too long. This one quick to retrace.

[dealerschool2006]

bot 93 shares of DRIP @ 64.20 !!! still went down coulda got 1 more share oh well...lol... B/E of 193 shares is 62.0238 WOW!!! ooops I forgot that XOM gapped down today...ooops...

[dealerschool2006]

I bot DRIP 2 days ago @ 60...waiting for XOM gap to fill in the $30 range then gonna get out and get into GUSH...oil producers must rebound sooner or later, and when they do, it will be nice...

[NPsurfer]

DRIP going up!!!! Would like to see it run Monday!!

[ClayTrader]

* * $DRIP Video Chart 06-15-2020 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[jablome]

since this went under 4 bucks though it will get a RS before long trade safe

[jablome]

all markets red except here

[jablome]

oil down 3 percent this turd down 20. inverse my @$$

[jablome]

darnit,oil down, and this too.

[jablome]

so i hear fed wont be buying till wednesday,ill hold for a little bit longer.

things are lookn good on the one hour

[jablome]

welp looks like auto kick out for me.

i bet against the the fed and the fed . . .

[DarkPool]

Some 4.37 filled now

[jablome]

got 4.48

[DarkPool]

Starter here today. 4.51 and large position

[jablome]

up 10 percent for a friday cash out

[jablome]

reloaded at 6.05 today

[jablome]

against my better judgment i got some 6.55s today

[starkd748]

Bottom in