Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS)

[barnyarddog]

U.S. equity funds attracted $12.8 billion in the seven days ending Aug. 18, Bofa said in a note, citing EPFR Global data. Worldwide, investors poured $23.9 billion into equities in the period, and pulled $4.5 billion from cash funds, the first outflow in five weeks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-funds-attract-biggest-100046539.html

[barnyarddog]

8/20 Buying the dip at batshit-insanely priced all time highs – Zero Hedge

8/20 Half a trillion dollars wiped from China markets in a week on clampdowns – Reuters

8/21 Hindenburg omen flashes warning, as does Buffet indicator – CI

[wadirum1]

Amazing thing is that people are still willing to hold stocks up at these nosebleed levels. Some evidently see this as the most favorable time ever to hold stocks. I see a Fed that realizes it cannot prop up the market forever, a Delta variant that is raging, US government debt that is out of control, and more and more problems.

Cash is indeed king.

[wadirum1]

Was planning to see how next week went, but this market is relentless. Not sure if I'll hold my shares over the weekend.

[wadirum1]

Starting to have buyers' regret...

Jobs go up -- great, the market goes up!

Jobs go down -- well, at least this means no interest rate increases, so the market goes up!

Heads you win, tails I lose.

[wadirum1]

For the first time since early 2020, I have gone long SPXS (i.e., short the market). Just a small position. Might buy more.

[barnyarddog]

Gossip on internet forums is basic materials, ie. nuts and bolts, things needed to build products, Are in lag some up to 1 year for delivery. That leads me to believe many factories will shut down from production going into 2022 spring. I forsee massive labor depression building into next year. No parts, no building blocks, no workee, no paycheck. 2008 all over again.

Cash is King.

[wadirum1]

For a long time now, people have been viewing everything as positive. If the economy heats up, that's good for earnings. If Covid heats up, that's good for interest rates and the likelihood of massive government bailouts. At the same time, the Fed has been buying and buying and buying.

But what if all the narratives change? What if we start seeing the Delta variant as bad for business (both here and abroad)? And what if we see a hot economy as bad for interest rates, while the Fed finally stops its wild buying spree?

I've been over-weighted in cash for a long time. And I am heading even further in that direction.

[wadirum1]

The 10-year Treasury is scarcely being affected by rising inflation. How much of this nonresponse is because the Fed is pumping money into the market for these bonds?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

When inflation expectations go up, then the nominal interest rate must also go up unless something happens to reduce the real rate. Did inflation expectations go up? Well, todays numbers are anomalous, but even the most optimistic forecasts are saying 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the nominal 10-year rate is 1.6 percent, putting the real rate below zero. So, if the real rate is negative and possibly declining, then is that due to aggressive Fed policies or due to speculative excesses on the part of private investors -- or some unholy combination of private investors creating a bonfire and the Fed adding the gasoline?

It is all incredibly good news, right up until it isn't. If the Fed stops pouring gasoline or if private investors get spooked and demand higher returns, then all of a sudden this party gets shut down and people start jumping out windows.

[wadirum1]

We were thinking of buying a vacation property. We held off.

NOBODY has a crystal ball. Not me, for sure.

I did not see this raging bull market coming. So, what do I know?

And while all the stories of bidding wars for homes make things sound crazy, I remember bidding wars back in the early 2000s -- and while people though the end was soon, the market for real estate didn't crash until like 2008 (you can argue the exact timing). My point is that things can go from crazy expensive to really crazy expensive and take years for the bottom to fall out.

Best of luck on your decision!

[xe2dy]

wadirum1, thanks for your detailed comments. I retired last August and want to buy a house in Prescott Arizona. I have cash but I don't want to buy at the top of the real estate market and see lower prices in a year or two. It may be best to just stay put for now and continue to monitor real estate prices, interest rates, markets and the political arena.

[wadirum1]

All assets will need to be revalued downward. Both real estate and stocks I would think will do better than bonds.

Real estate and stocks both have benefits from inflation that bonds just don't have. So, inflation is a mixed bag for real estate and stocks. On the one hand, company earnings go up (stocks) and because the rising replacement cost of building a home drives home prices up (real estate). On the other hand, rising inflation raises interest rates, which cause P/Es to fall and which make it more expensive to own real estate. Typically, the interest rate effect overwhelms the other effect, causing a large drop.

Bonds don't see any benefits from inflation. If interest rates double, then the value of bonds is cut in half. And if the Fed starts to put on the brakes, then junk bonds get hit harder than safer bonds, so they drop even further.

There is a ton of leverage out there -- people buying on margin because the market is predicted to always go up.

But I've been overly cautious this past 12 months. I perfectly nailed the pandemic sell-off (I though things were overvalued and I could see the pandemic coming). And I nailed the bottom (pure luck). But then I went back to too much cash too soon and have been gradually moving even further toward cash.

Depends on your time horizon, I suppose. I am all set for retirement, so I figured why risk it. I really enjoy looking at all that cash (though I could have 50% more if I'd only held until now). But these are crazy times, and I like having cash. Plus, I've been reading too much John Hussman on Seeking Alpha.

[xe2dy]

What is your opinion, if any, on how real estate prices will be effected in either or both of the scenarios mentioned? TIA

[wadirum1]

Scenario I: inflation->higher interest rates as Fed tightens or as Fed holds steady and inflation premia get built into nominal rates->falling bond and stock prices

Scenario II: inflation->pressure for higher rates->Fed loosening to try to hold nominal rates low->more inflationary pressure, which eventually causes interest rates to rise and asset prices to fall with bigger drops but maybe one or two years later

Either way, things are not looking good over the next several years. When more and more people figure this stuff out, prices will adjust downward in anticipation of poor returns, regardless which path the Fed chooses.

[barnyarddog]

More than 2 million borrowers as of January had either postponed their payments or failed to make them for at least three months

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-firms-warned-prepare-tidal-204414646.html

[wadirum1]

Depressing news on the variants:

B117 variant is now *dominant* in the US. I’m 99% certain that another surge is on the way in April or May. Why? The more contagious #B117 is surging—now crossed the 50% threshold of all cases, in addition to pockets of others variants. 🧵 #COVID19https://t.co/02Q7lcSn1E pic.twitter.com/gAwi2OGTTy

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) March 20, 2021

B117 now the dominant strain in the US -- 6 days ahead of predictions. People looking at the virus counts coming down and have no idea what is about to hit us.

And B117 is nothing compared to what is brewing in Brazil. The P1 variant is more than TWICE as contagious, and it is not known if the vaccines work against it.

People buying up cruise ship stocks are fools. As are the folks who decided that a wild spring break in FL would be a good idea.

Why are the folks in New Zealand and Australia so much smarter than we are?

[wadirum1]

At this point, either the Fed sticks with a loose policy (which will lead to inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise) or the Fed tightens (which will cause interest rates to rise and slow the economy). Different slope of the yield curve, but there is not much the Fed can do to hold off higher rates much longer.

And higher rates will cause a whole lot of pain for longs.

John Hussman on Seeking Alpha shows how perilous this situation now is.

[wadirum1]

Greensill:

The $143B canary in the coalmine?

Or just, ho hum, another day at the office...?

[barnyarddog]

i assume now that 2020 with the covid closures, that financials are showing insolvency and losses. Institutions are scurying for cash as they fear inflation cutting into profits.

[barnyarddog]

some hedge-funds are suffering the greatest stock short-squeeze in history. This has forced these hedge-funds to liquidate many of their most liquid long positions

[barnyarddog]

Greensill is one of the world’s biggest providers of supply chain finance, also called “reverse factoring.” On its website Greensill claims that it issued over $143 billion in funding to over 10 million customers in 2020.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/04/softbank-fintech-unicorn-greensill-on-verge-of-collapse/

and REPRO faltering.

[barnyarddog]

Today, 3.00 Dollar swings per 100 SP point swing

[wadirum1]

Pretty wild doings in the markets.

[barnyarddog]

Historic Repo Market Insanity: 10Y Treasury Trades At -4% In Repo Ahead Of Monster Short Squeeze

Thursday, Mar 04, 2021 - 7:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-repo-market-insanity-10y-treasury-trades-4-ahead-monster-short-squeeze

[wadirum1]

Variant COVID now dominant in CA. Not B117. Something worse.

Market just keeps going up.

[wadirum1]

The easiest way to stay informed that I've found is to read through this guy's tweets. I sort of work in a related field and I know just enough to say that he is highly credible, and I think he does an excellent job of synthesizing and sourcing complex information.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

Once you understand what he is saying, then do some exploring on your own to see if he is a crackpot or if other serious scientists are saying the same things he is.

There are several key dimensions to be thinking about with the new variants:

a) do they spread more easily?
b) do they result in more serious cases of COVID and greater risk of death or serious lasting consequences?
c) do they affect different populations?
d) how well does the vaccine work against them?

Here are the answers based on current knowledge, recognizing that there are many new variants and some have scarcely been studied:

a) definitely much, much more easily
b) luckily, the answer so far is no
c) yes, they are much more likely to infect children
d) the vaccine seems to work at half strength against some, and not at all for others, but there is hope that the development cycle for new vaccines will be much shorter

As for timing, we are expecting the B117 variant to be the dominant strain in March -- in part because the old strain is coming down and in part because the new strain is coming on. It will be dominant by early March in Florida and in much of the rest of the country by the end of March. Nobody knows how many cases the US will ultimately have, but everything I have read tells me it will be the worst surge yet -- perhaps by a lot.

And B117 is not the worst of the new strains. And the others will come over time.

We could have stopped all of this by having everyone in the US just stay inside for 3 weeks, followed by a more active CDC response of contact tracing, testing, genetic sequencing, mask wearing, and distancing. The serious experts knew what we were facing, but some people in this country viewed any urging that we face up to the truth of science as some sort of infringement of our liberty to be a COVID-riddled nation. So, this is the path we have chosen to be on.

Maybe we can still try a 2-3 week lockdown (with obvious exemptions for getting vaccinated)? Not a half-assed lockdown where 70 percent of the economy is deemed essential, but a full-bore effort to knock the virus down to 1/10th or 1/100th the number of cases, so that vaccines, contact tracing, testing, quarantines, masks, and distancing can do the rest?

But that seems unlikely to be the path the US will take. The CDC seems to be doing its thing whereby it doesn't want to alarm people until crap starts to happen. Personally, I prefer to be forward-looking. For whatever reason, the majority in our country either rejects science or just can't face reality. If you add in a government that doesn't want to alarm them with straight talk about the future, it adds up to us walking into a shitshow. Bringing a knife to a gunfight, or whatever your favorite analogy is.

[Mygolfballs]

Link?

[wadirum1]

News coming out that the neither the current vaccines nor natural immunity works work on the K417N & E484K variants. Also, E484K is spontaneously occurring outside of South Africa.

And yet the market is soaring...

I'm just scratching my head.

[Longshot30]

Fed seems to think this year for the great reset.

[$treet $inatra]

usually done after the euphoria in the markets sets in and the value
of the bear instruments (especially the 3X) drops substantially...
which in itself is a signal of a sort that within a month or two there
should be bigger correction to the downside for the indices..

[trunkmonk]

this year is a must to watch giga bubbles fizzle out and the bull market sheep get stuck.

sis boom bah

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-norton-ext_onb&hsimp=yhs-ext_onb&hspart=norton&p=sis+boom+bah+johnny+carson#id=3&vid=2caf70a0a8472b60296aa34743b3d769&action=click

the sound made when a sheep explodes.

[trunkmonk]

when Spooz starts its cruise down to 2k, thats when you can hold a 3x bear for a while. maybe this year, dont see it yet but its gonna happen, its in the charts, technicals and financial cycles always win.

[wadirum1]

The decay on this thing is remarkably fast. So, I agree this isn't something to hold long term.

The problem is that nobody can tell whether this house of cards falls right now or after another 10 stories are added on. We are already way out of any kind of norms for valuation, but there is nothing to stop us from pushing even further.

So, I'm staying away from short positions for now...

[cmeny1977]

Ive been holding since 42, just getting crushed being long spxs.

[trunkmonk]

If u do short markets, don’t hold long term. Imo
Years ago I knew several people who were good at daily selling high and buying low on the way up.

[wadirum1]

Wow. Powerful move up today in the markets.

Markets move up fastest right before they crash. I don't have the guts to go short. But this is not sustainable...

[trunkmonk]

Ah see. I thought u had real data u would bring out.

[nowwhat2]

ha-ha - Don't follow me - Follow the one whom I was poking fun at (for they were HIS forecasts I was quoting)

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160833779





THIS has been more MY line of thinking.....(which yes currently MAY be getting" long in the tooth")
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=161031531


However the Hongkong chart (there) is certainly (seemingly) pointing to further upside.

[trunkmonk]

interesting, there must be more data? i will follow u, thanks

[nowwhat2]

Jan. 11th

Definitely a crash in markets within days

[Mygolfballs]

All these etfs reverse when market turns the worm

[starbuxsux]

Interesting timing for R/S

[Mygolfballs]

FED printing money and low int rates will continue this false sense of security on wallstreet. Maybe when the taxes above 400,000 begin we’ll see a shake off, maybe not. Where else do the rich put their $$cabbage$

Grim

[wadirum1]

So, now it turns out the administration was lying about how many vaccine doses it had. Azar has resigned -- perhaps just ahead of the news. And the country is experiencing community spread of B117, which even CDC is now admitting will be fully in force here by March.

The lockdowns that occurred in 2020 will be nothing like what we will experience in 2021, which will require additional deficit spending in the multi-trillions, with more unemployment, more Fed intervention, and much more death and hospital over-capacity.

Maybe the market keeps shrugging it off, moving toward ever higher highs? That part I guess depends on how high the Fed chooses to push it. I am not in this. Nor do I have other hedges. But I'm very heavily in cash, because I just don't want to get too involved in what I see as a house of cards.

Make sure you are pulling together your stores of toilet paper now rather than when the store shelves are empty.

[wadirum1]

WAPO headline today -- B117 is now in Maryland.

It is coming, and Trump has left the country utterly unprepared. The vaccine distribution is slow, and no steps are being taken to double down on social distancing.

This is a situation where a stitch in time saves nine, and we have for some reason decided to just opt for the nine rather than the one. I understand the problems from shutting down the economy now, but I am balancing that against the much larger collapse that will occur when B117 really takes hold in this country.

[wadirum1]

B117 variant is coming. Going to make 2020, as awful as it was, look like a walk in the park.

We broke 4000 deaths again today. 2nd time ever. We are headed to 5000 deaths/day before end of Feb.

➡️We need to vaccinate at **least 1 mil/day**. But if the B117 variant takes hold & becomes dominant in US, we will need to have *2 mil/day vaccinated*. Honest reality. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/v2kTOwXuDk

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 13, 2021

[Longshot30]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-securities-investments-finance-communist-chinese-military-companies/

[Longshot30]

Huge trump move announcements

[Doubledown75]

Why would they remove this off the SPY board??
I smell federal audit

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/10/capitol-riot-jpmorgan-and-citigroup-join-us-corporations-pausing-political-donations.html

[Longshot30]

Definitely a crash in markets within days