Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x (DRV)

[itswhatido]

man i have been looking and waiting for this pullback for 9 weeks now and nothing,,, looks like they are trying to suck in as many investors as they possibly can ,,,huh ???

[maybe_this_time]

Yeah, it is unbelievable. Getting tired of talking it on the chin here, lol. Still hanging onto to by 1/2 bear positions. With all this money flowing and rates being pushed down further I guess the market thinks at some point there will be some real economic activity. But where?, lol. Both the transports and industurials are above pre flash crash levels. If this thing doesn't break down here I'll have to go long. I'll probably go with DZK, FAS and EDC on the long side...

I see FAS and DRN are having good days today...

[itswhatido]

can you believe this MTT,,, THEIR SEEMS TO BE NO STOPPING THESE BULLS

[maybe_this_time]

Assuming this is a knee jerk reaction here. Problem is this low volume, indicisive run is hurting my accounts pretty badly. Will have to decide to double up or take my lumps.

[maybe_this_time]

Still looking for my pullback this week, but also looking for the rally to continue:

FOUR-YEAR CYCLE BOTTOM WAS COMPLETED EARLY THIS YEAR AND FAVORS STOCKS -- BUT WATCH OUT FOR SHORT-TERM SETBACK AS STOCKS TEST APRIL HIGHS

By John Murphy

MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE GOOD FOR STOCKS... One of the reasons that I started turning more positive on stocks over the summer was the fact that the four-year cycle was due to bottom this year. That and a positive turn in technical and intermarket trends. My September 2 message carried the headline "With Four-Year Cycle Bottom Due in Second Half of Year, It Might Not Be Too Soon to Start Reallocating Some Funds Out of Bonds and Into Stocks". The first paragraph of that message pointed out that while the cycle bottom usually occurred during October, I believed this year's bottom would occur sooner. The main reason for that more optimistic view was the presence of so many head and shoulders patterns visible on stock charts. That H&S bottom was completed during September when most stock indexes broke through their August highs. Positive intermarket factors were a weaker dollar which gave a big boost to stocks in general, especially those tied to commodities and foreign stocks. Low bond yields gave a big boost to dividend paying stocks. Expectations for a second round of quantitative easing kept most bond categories in uptrends and contributed to the weaker dollar. Those trends were evident again today. The dollar fell which boosted stocks and commodities. Bond prices rose as well. Investors appear optimistic that a big Republican victory will make things better. In addition, tomorrow's Fed meeting is expected to announce more quantitative easing. The most important technical factor at the moment is the fact that several major US stock indexes are challenging their April highs. As I wrote last week, I believe that the spring highs will eventually be broken. My concern at the moment is that everyone has been buying on expected electoral results today and Fed action tomorrow. That being the case, there's the possibility of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. In other words, I'm nervous that stocks could be vulnerable to a short-term setback on any hint of disappointment. With that short-term caveat, I continue to believe that the four-year cycle bottom has been completed which argues for a stronger stock market. I also continue to believe that most investors hold too many bonds and not enough stocks. The next couple of days should be especially interesting.

[maybe_this_time]

Hopefully this is just a head fake before the pending sell on the news events that may be coming. Still only half in with bear ETFs and will be ready to switch gears if they decide to take this market higher...

[maybe_this_time]

Looks like we're getting closer to an official downwave. Looking for the confirmation tomorrow to double up my 3x Bear ETF positions.

[maybe_this_time]

Looking at the S&P weekly chart, there appears to be many indicators that a decent pullback is coming:



Perhaps to 1145, maybe as low as 1115. The NAS is exceptionally overbought here according to John Murphy of Stock Charts, hence my interest in QQQQ Nov 52 Puts in my speculative account.

Still only 1/2 short with positions the the 3x bear ETFs DRV, TYP and BGZ in my retirement account allocated to equities.

[maybe_this_time]

Another battle today. The market really does look like she wants to keal over here and take a break here. Next week could be a nice week for the 3x shorts...

[maybe_this_time]

It looks like she really wants to go, but market isn't quite cooperating here... RMZ holding it's 20 day, and DOW holding it's 10 day. S&P holding a little better as the techs remain bouyant.

Being pacient here as I'm slightly in the money with 3x shorts. Actually picked up a few 52 QQQQ puts for 90 cents this morning. If we get any sustained pullback here, they'll quickly pay 2-3 bucks...

[itswhatido]

damn,,, did you see that,,, DRV up 60 cents pre market then plummiting she went

[maybe_this_time]

I'll send it over. I plan to play with fake trades for a while longer, but so far I like it.

Well market didn't want to give me my confirm today. Still in 1/2 short.

[diPfliP]

that would be great MTT,,, [e-mail] thanks bud

[maybe_this_time]

I see market met my objectives for increasing my 3x bear position, but didn't sustain it. Will check back at 3:14. Again looking for the S&P to dip below the 10 day and thus the RMZ the 20 day to increase positions.

[maybe_this_time]

Yeah the market didn't cooperate yesterday with a strong close. Though the run today didn't quite get to your re-entry. Today's action is nice. If the S&P can get below 1080 this afternoon I'm going all in short. The RMZ is still looking broken today and a close below 749 could signal a bigger drop. The market has been treating REITs like a safe bond paying a nice yield, but with the weakening dollar that position is looking suspect, never mind it's not a bond, lol. I think we could see a nice run to the mid 20s with the DRV here.

But this is just a quick trade here for me as I suspect the 50 day will hold and we won't get a major breakage to the 200 day.

Yeah, I'm back in stinky pink land partially to my dismay, but am trying to build up a base actually accumulating and holding. I'm not doing any day trading currently as that has never worked out for me. I really think IHSN is going to pan out and should be my ticket. Those winnings I plan to parlay into my 3x ETF option hedged strategy with TYH/TYP hedged by QQQQ options. I have a trial I'm tracking which I can email you if you want to provide me with your private email.

Later.

[itswhatido]

i dumped my posistion for a little over a buck a share,,,wanted to buy back in but the low 19's look like the new entry point,,,,should i wait to get the low 19's or is the market correction finally here and i probably wont see the low 19's again,,,hows the trading been,,, have been trading pinkies this week,,,i keep telling myself to stay away from stinky pinky land,,,but i cant help but try to chase down an occasional runner or two,,

[maybe_this_time]

Looks like we're getting a bounce off the 20 day today in the US markets. I'd like to see the DOW close below the 10 day. RMZ is staying relatively weak so DRV is still looking pretty good here.

[itswhatido]

good good,,am doing just that,,

[maybe_this_time]

RMZ Chart - The ascending wedge caused a lot of dissapointment for DRV positions the 2nd half of summer and early fall. It's also a classic bearish pattern. If she breaks that first support level that should be and excellent point to take an additional position...

[maybe_this_time]

Took a 50% short position here with some DRV, TYP, DPK. Will look for a confirmation before I go all in short.

Though todays J. Murphy Market Message is mixed, still suggests a pullback is coming soon:

[maybe_this_time]

Another interesting piece on possible pullback here from John Murphy of StockCharts.com:

[maybe_this_time]

Hang tight and what the RMZ targets I gave you. Stocks should be seeing a pullback like we haven't seen since the middle of September. I should be going 1/2 short tomorrow with FAZ/DRV/TYP in equal proportions.

[itswhatido]

DRV is bussting my ball$ ,,,if we could get to 20 that woiuld give me 90 cents a shr profit,,,doesnt look like she is gonna go easy

[maybe_this_time]

This access looks for a short-term pullback that could be decent as the long position here has grown quite large:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1023-1.mp3

[diPfliP]

ya that video sold me,,,and good ol FAZ,,,after 5 weeks of averaging down and building up to a 1000 share count i finally had enough,,,so after 12K invested i managed put a little over
$400 profits on the books,,,ouch i am ready to forget that whole debacle,,,but it looks like we are bottom feeding in these low 12's for FAZ and 19's for DRV so hopefully the trading picks up,,,i used to look for a couple dollars a share profit before selling,,,now im taking 50 cents and running,,, but like you said it friend,,,,A WIN IS A WIN

[maybe_this_time]

Hey, a win is a win... We're currently in a fairly tight range...

[maybe_this_time]

ITs, did you watch that video Beer posted? Looks pretty compelling.

Republicans taking the House isn't a lock, put a possibility. If they take over, they'll probably put a halt to QE2 which would probably hurt this run. The market has probably built in a lot of expected QE2 already and when they actually annouce it might trigger a sell-off. I personally can't believe we're trading at pre-credit crises levels here and we've virtually made no progress other than givng the majors a bunch of cheap money. Still have close to 10% unemployment. And some REITs are trading at an ALL TIME HIGH! CRE is a safe heavan? Crazy. I keep looking at the ascending wedge in the RMZ and have to believe the REITs will have a 10% pullback if the market pulls back. That would be a 30% grain for DRV...

FAS was a nice pick of late. How did that one work out for ya?

[diPfliP]

no longer waiting for a few hundred in profits,,,im securing anything over $50,,,SAD BUT TRUE

[diPfliP]

with us chugging through a rather stellar ( though shallow) earnings season,,, i wonder how soon befor we get such correction,,,does it look like republicans are gonna take the house ??? that coupled with more stimulus money,,,bieng freshly printed as we speak ,,, could result in even more big board gains,,, right???im trading in and out every few days so no biggy on witch direction it goes,,, as long as i pick the quick trend to be my friend and MTT backin me up till the end,,,)that was me trying to rhyme)haa lol

[maybe_this_time]

A little excerpt from the daily message at StockCharts.com. One might think a major correction is due here, Divy or no Divy:



I keep focusing on the ascending wedge on the RMZ chart.

[maybe_this_time]

Hey beer, this guy seems pretty good... Of course my powder is wating to clear. Ugh.

[maybe_this_time]

Glad it's working out for you... Me, I'm on the sidelines until the 26th. Look at the RMZ for your descision point (ticker either $RMZ or ^RMZ). Short term support levels are 749, 737 and 717. Current price is 759.63.

[diPfliP]

great call MTT,,,i was thinking about putting some small losses on the books and sidelining most funds till after earnings season,,, im now showing a few hundred in the green and will probably secure that by tomm. or sooner if need be,,,im not greedy and i still am in the game,,,GOOD LOOKIN OUT MTT NOTHING BUT LOVE FOR YA BUD,,,

[maybe_this_time]

Not really. Most are thing the markets overdone here, but the traders react to any schread of positive news. Unless we clear estasblish another leg up, I'd hold here. Today will be telling.

[maybe_this_time]

Well I think you managed to catch those nice waves of summer... But the market was settling down and changing gears. That's when we should of changed. We might just keep running here til year end since the bulls are in full control... I really think we're way over bought and after this earnings season we should see a decent pullback. Will attempt to trade accordingly.

[diPfliP]

thanks MTT,,, was debating my next move,,,ill hold strong and see if she can produce some profits,,,im not real heavy in DRV,,couple hundred shares,,,so i can stomach a few negative days,,im an ass for even thinking bear ETF's are a good idea when earning season is just kicking off,,,

[maybe_this_time]

Well don't go that far since I haven't been able to execute, lol. I got scared out of my long position selling first thing yesterday morning... But I was in a meeting all day and felt the need to. The chart wasn't broken yest, so don't sell fool!

But yes riding broken charts down is a terrible place to, a place I'm familiar with... We haven't broken out yet so I wouldn't sell here just yet.

[diPfliP]

looks like those 18's are ondeck for DRV,,,whats your percentage for managing someone elses accts.,,,you think if i would listen to anybody in regards to the market it would be the guy who is a genius with numbers,,,sometimes i think my money would be used better if i would just give it to the local mission,,,up until a couple of months ago i thought i might actually know what i am doing,,,haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa,,,hookem and cookem MTT,,im currently the one bieng strung out as the bait,,,

[diPfliP]

damn,,,i kick myself every time i go against the warnings you offer,,,im ready to hand you the accounts and passwords,,,i've just about had enough of this shit,,,LOL if im not loosing money,,,im not moving money

[maybe_this_time]

I got out of my TYH this morning... I'll be going short here in a couple of days when that money clears. We're butting up against pre credit crisis levels and really need to have a good pullback here... But won't have the big one until next year...

[maybe_this_time]

Sounds like some good stuff, lol. I'll have to look into them. Thanks! Check out IHSN... I'm looking for new highs from that one (not to use a pun)....

[diPfliP]

195 shrs of DRV at 19.10,,,crap,,

[diPfliP]

damn,,,been watching GRNH,,a pot stock since mon. up 200% and climbing,,,havnt bought in yet,,,have a couple other medical marijuana stocks but this one and CBIS have been on fire,,,lol

[diPfliP]

DRV AT $20 IS BEGGIN ME FOR SOME BUY IN ,,,I AM GONNA HAVE TO OBLIDGE,,,did i spell that word right??? oblidge

[maybe_this_time]

It's counter intuitive, but the prospects of printing money has the markets going as more dollars are avaialable to buy stocks. I think the bond thing is coming to an end so investers are going for a little romp in stocks. But if we have any more setbacks, there probably will be a stampede for gold as there really is no where else to go. Dollars will be devalued with the printing of money. Economy will drag as no-one wants to be in paper. Only things of value will be of interest which is commodaties and gold. A quick short and into gold. When things settle down, short gold. If it would be that easy, lol...

[itswhatido]

ya she is all over the place today,,,still above my average so not in panic mode yet,,,would be nice to see a little direction from this market,,,she is getting on my last set of nerves,,,good lookin out on the charts MTT,, thanks bud,,

[maybe_this_time]

If you like heavy rock or rock and roll, you can do a search on Oblong Wheel or Big Stone IV on the web. Also can check out Napster or Itunes to check out some clips...

I looked at that one once, lol... We'll it's about as cheap as you can get, though I'm not so sure about their business model, converting fancy cars to all electric. But heck might be one to pick up and sit on. If it goes to 0 bid, you could pick up some 1s...

Looks like you are having a good day today. I'm going to stick to my guns long as the charts aren't broken, yet that is... I think if the S&P is below it's 5 day at 3pm, I'm selling everying (except for my box of junk pennies...)

[itswhatido]

just jammin with buddies,,,haa i was looking at ELCR to funny,,,

[maybe_this_time]

Charts for this week:

SP500 continues to move higher and still looking very strong



I would be shocked if it blows throw 1200 though. Hoping it forms a recognizable top as the RMZ is clearly in an acending wedge which is a classical bearish pattern. Though it's moving into new highs, think it can't see a significant move higher. Looking at this chart will clearly coincide with the inverse terrible DRV performance of late. A break of that lower band should equate to a big move for DRV though. May happen soon!



I'm also posting charts on the QQQ on the TYH board as an FYI

[maybe_this_time]

Hey It's, ever play in a band?

ESLR isn't exactly a penny stock as it is on the NAS. I've watched it go from 5 to 20 to 60 cents over the years trading it a few times, some for loses, some for gains. I do think alt energy stocks will have their day in the sun again and think ESLR is way oversold. It's doesn't look like they are going bankrupt but they were trading like they were...

I've got quite a few pennies here in a little trading account. Not sure why, but trying to buit up my balance with a winner... Only down 10-20% this summer, depending on what day you look at it, lol. I've taken the strategy of averaging down and waiting for the pop paceintly, which always seems to come at some point... If I get my balance up to a decent level, I plan to stop it with the junk and employ my TYP/TYH QQQQ option hedge trading strategy I've been doing a test run on with imaginary trades. The hedge has been effective at washing out loses when your wrong, but takes some of profits obviously when your right. The NAS has been volitile always, so I like the looks of it for a long term money builder.

I really like the possibility of making some good money with these 3x ETFs just trading the market. No more messing around guessing on inidivual stocks... Hope you get a winner soon, but not until I can position myself correctly, lol.

Hope you had a good weekend.