Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x (DRV)

[hang ten]

Shedlock> When was the Housing Peak and How Far to the Bottom?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/when-was-housing-peak-and-how-far-to.html

[hang ten]

Martin Weiss> Why Investors Need To Stay Away From These Stocks
http://etfdailynews.com/2011/06/13/why-investors-need-to-stay-away-from-these-stocks-tza-dxd-sds-faz-vxx-tna-fas-dog-sh/

[hang ten]

Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)

http://web.mit.edu/cre/research/credl/rca.html

[hang ten]

Real Estate ETFs: Should You Dump Your REITs Now? (IYR, REK)

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/06/17/real-estate-etfs-should-you-dump-your-reits-now-iyr-rek/

[hang ten]

US Housing Crisis Is Now Worse Than Great Depression
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43395857

[hang ten]

MBB, not buoyed by todays SPY/Dow move..

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/MBB.htm

[hang ten]

The Big Fade on the REIT Yield Premium
http://seekingalpha.com/article/270733-the-big-fade-on-the-reit-yield-premium?source=yahoo

[hang ten]

Looking at REK, it seems a good confirmation for DRV.. ie, the volume over the last week:

[hang ten]

$RMZ

[hang ten]

MSCI Reit Index
http://www.msci.com/products/indices/country_and_regional/domestic_equity_indices/reit/performance.html

[hang ten]

DRV,, someone shorting the shorts? DRV making the 'threshold securities' list often..


http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9yk8ZZQZHUw

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=drv&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

[maybe_this_time]

Looks like DRV is stuck in tight place here. I'm not to excited long or short here anymore. If the market tanks, any 3x short fund will pay handsomely. I like TYH/TYP, BGU/BGZ and EDC/EDZ better as they are closer to pure market plays. Problem with DRN/DRV or FAS/FAZ is they aren't pure plays and the bebocles of the last selloff can't be guarentted forward, especially with all the free money the gubbamint is shoveling out. DRN actually has counter forces in play that have nothing to do with real estate values like cash flows from apartment properties with are doing well now that no-one can afford a house and seniors look to cash out and rent. Good luck beer and it's if you are still riding this one out.

[maybe_this_time]

Picking up some DRV today as I see overhead resistence in the RMZ here...

[maybe_this_time]

I was looking to pick up DRV Friday afternoon but didn't have my cash cleared from my last trade. If the market does go down some more this week, there could be a 5-10% drop in the RMZ which could be a 15 - 30% gain for DRV.

[maybe_this_time]

Not that I carry a huge following, lol, but I'll be posting my general views of the market on BGU now. I'll leave my comments here to be purely RMZ, DRV and DRN calls.

[maybe_this_time]

A chart to back up what I'm seeing...

[maybe_this_time]

I see the 10 day crossing over the 20 day here in the major markets and pushing the indicies lower. With yield rates increasing I suspect the RMZ will push down to be the 200 day line where we will achieve a truely over sold level. This should produce DRV at around $25. The SP 500 should test the 50 day more strongly in the process and we might see some better oversold indicaters in the markets. This will be a nice setup for a holiday bounce (at least a nice preception of a holiday bounce setup!)

[maybe_this_time]

Ok, saw the RMZ wasn't bouncing as hard as the rest of the market, so sold my DRN for a decent profit... On the sidelines for the moment.

[maybe_this_time]

Whatyaknow, got one right... Lets see if she can break through the 20 and 10 day MAs...

[maybe_this_time]

This is probably the bounce everyone is looking for here... But that may be too easy of a call...

[maybe_this_time]

Probably would be wise to close out here... Though NAS and SPY have romm to go lower, DOW is at a good support level here. RMZ is completely broken and could move lover easily but is at a very oversold level.

[maybe_this_time]

Looking at the SP500 chart, the 50 day has only offered a minor bounce the past 6 months when tested. This pullback could go all they way down to the 200 day. Stayed tuned...

[maybe_this_time]

Lets see what tomorrow morning brings. Dow hit the 50 day, but NAS and SP500 have a little more to go. RMZ has a fair more to go...

[maybe_this_time]

Here's an updated RMZ chart. Clearly our acending wedge was been compramised and I see see it heading down to the 50 day, either on the Daily or Weekly chart. This is a 10-12% move which = 30-35% move up for DRV putting it in $27 range...

[maybe_this_time]

Definately a good site... Though looks like the bounce he called is coming off the 50 day... As a result I'm 50% in DRV today. Will be taking profits quick if I get em...

[beerthirty]

Watch and learn...that's what I am doing.
http://www.youtube.com/user/PSAadmin#p/u/0/Qy7jJBoBFB4

[maybe_this_time]

Of course if I waited 15 minutes, I may not have gone long with FAS. RMZ looking ripe for another meltdown...

[maybe_this_time]

Seeing support here at the 20 day, though a little precarious at the close. Taking a small bet long.

[maybe_this_time]

Love how they closed the market just above the 20 day (and DRV just above the 50 day). There might be a little move up on Monday but as soon as these averages are challenged again, I'm all in bear once again. Have a nice weekend.

[maybe_this_time]

Ok, took my beating on those calls... Was in the money yesterday and just plain should have took it! If the daily charts close at or near the 20 day (especially if below the 20 day), with all the uncertianty facing us right now, next week could be a big down... Just seems I'm always on the wrong side of the coin of late.

[maybe_this_time]

Markets appear to be hitting upper resistance with the 10 day MA based on China News and grumblings from the G20. Appears US printing press might create a currency war, which may be good for markets in the short haul, but create a disasterous outcome...

Still got those QQQQ Calls but I feel I'm on a slippery slope at the moment. Going to a though call if I want to keep them into next week.

[diPfliP]

i like those too

[maybe_this_time]

Beer posted a couple videos from these guys. Been getting into their website and like it. This is nice little feature that calls daily moves:

http://perfectstockalert.undergodincorporated.com/mpt-rating

[diPfliP]

indeed we will be,,, that cisco drop is insane how much it weighted the market,,,volume is way off on DRV today,,,maybe just because of vetrans day ???

[maybe_this_time]

Well, I'm definately getting a little reckless here... Funny how it only takes one stock, Cisco, to cause the entire market to gap down and they bring it mostly back during the day. Anyways, I'm almost certain my next big move will be bear again and we'll see a decent move eventually. In the near term though, I see the govs of the world keep shoveling money at this so it will be hard to get on and ride the moves effectively. The big selloff may not happen in the near term. Your nickel and diming approach is working for you. I'd stick with it for now!

But the fact is they can only print so much money, and take on so much debt until the market reacts badly. That will be the day of reckoning and I sure hope we are on the right side of that move...

[diPfliP]

i should really get back into options,,,the money is good,,,been burned real bad so i try to stay content nickle and diming the market for somewhat steady profit taking,,,looks like she is on a rebound so calls should be golden,,,im rooting for you even though the student is against the teacher on his plays right now,,,

[maybe_this_time]

I hope this little rally continues so my QQQQ Calls play can make me some real money (need another 50 cents on the QQQQ to achieve my target.) Hopefully dan get a nice setup for a follow-up short next week! I"ll be watching.

[diPfliP]

im kinda light right now 330 shrs FAZ 200 shrs of DRV,,,both not doing enough to warrent any moves,,,am ready to pull the trigger and go heavy when we get a conformation,,,have managed to squeeze out a very little tiny bit of profits this week,,,waiting for DOW 10,000 to come out of hiding,,,which i feel is very soon,,,im looking for xmas spending to be light for americans this year,,but who the heck knows huh,,,i got a list of crap to do today so do me a favor and keep the market in check for me today MTT,,,LATER MAN

[maybe_this_time]

No didn't go for that... Not that I don't have anything against that, but I had my math smarts and went to college.

Getting close to another criticle support level for the market and decided to double down (cash) on my QQQQ Nov 54 Calls. So far so good.

I suspect my next big move will be another short again as we test the top again or break the 20 day.

[diPfliP]

hey MTT ,,, ever fight in any wars or serve our country ??? was going into airforce right after high school,,, got a 93 on ASFAB just never showed up for bus departure,,, sometimes wonder what life would have been like if i did get on that bus,,,i can tell you one thing,,, i know it wouldnt have been having as much fun as i am now,,, HOOK'EM AND COOK'EM FRIEND

[diPfliP]

hey MTT ,,, ever fight in any wars or serve our country ??? was going into airforce right after high school,,, got a 93 on ASFAB just never showed up for bus departure,,, sometimes wonder what life would have been like if i did get on that bus,,,i can tell you one thing,,, i know it wouldnt have been having as much fun as i am now,,, HOOK'EM AND COOK'EM FRIEND

[diPfliP]

i dont see us getting to yesterdays highs very easy,,,maybe EOD ,,,i feels safe as bears seem to want to take control,,,bulls arnt going down without a fight,,,

[maybe_this_time]

Well I was completele off base yesteray afternoon. Closing my TYP and QQQQ Puts position yesterday appears to be a terrible mistake. I got a major fake with that candle yesterday. NAS is going to get creamed at the open. You should see a nice open with your 3x bear positions...

[diPfliP]

hell of a swing happinig this AM

[diPfliP]

anaother day,,, lets see what the stock market gods have instore for us today

[maybe_this_time]

No man, just a matter of manning up, swollowing your pride, being smart and not being reckless with you hard earned money! Clearly we had no conviction with the market selloff here and were closing with a solid white hammer. Time to get out! So I sold everything! It's ok to take a punch or two, but clear a good idea to leave the room before I get bitch slapped, lol!...

I'll be in cash in my 401k for 2 days here, so nothing to do there. But chart says she'll probably be going higher so bought a few Nov QQQQ 54 Calls to play that.

[diPfliP]

ima stop being such a pussy and man up on the choices i have made,,,as shity as they have been

[diPfliP]

im so full of shit,,, im a dreamer with nothing more than a fifty fifty shot of getting it right with DRV/DRN,,, WITH THAT BEING SAID,,,,MOVE YOU POS MOVEEEEEEE ,,, time to go wait on a few patheti tables for a few measly dollars,,, should of went to school,,, racked up a half mill in student loans then look for work in an impossible job market to only be denied a carreer,,,,,,,

[diPfliP]

setting up nicly

[diPfliP]

RALLY BEARS RALLY