Direxion Daily Emrg Mrkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) (EDZ)

[NickC]

We are at the start of the next leg down of this current Magnified Bear Market: Anybody connecting the dots this way? It has been reported that one part of the segment that has been especially hard hit is the 50’s and older age group that were down-sized during the economic mess/collapse which started September 2008. It is my opinion that you have a huge number that can’t find a job (age making it harder) and have been relying on unemployment compensation and their portfolios for everyday expenses. This strategy may have been fine while the Stock Market was in a robust incline (December 2008 to January 2010). Now things are becoming quite different. As the Stock Market continues to head south (lower) so does the value of their Portfolio. Because there is an accentuated reliance on the Stock Market portfolio due to this unique situation, the product of the current down turn will be magnified: This large number of unemployed will now spend far less because of this new squeeze that has presented itself. Magnified snowball effect; Spending less is bad for the economy which makes portfolios go down further….. Who then spend less…. And so on!
Your Thoughts?

[NickC]

Like the divergence finally today! USA markets up and overseas markets down: making EDZ up!
I keep seeing bad technicals for the USA markets but they keep going up?? Anybody have a reason?

[stockguard]

Correction Protection

Traders have been debating for weeks now where the bottom will be in the current stock sell off. Deming, who trades the VIX, the CBOE's volatility index, said if the VIX cracks its 200-day moving average of 25.30 in the next week, it could spike to 30. "At that point I think we'd see the S and P test 1035, if not 1020," he said.

"It's (S and P) searching for a bottom here, but it just doesn't feel like it found it. It's trying to hold these levels...If we can somehow break 1080, I still think the high side over the short period is 1100," he said.

Brown Brothers Harriman investment strategist Andrew Burkly said he believes the market will continue to correct for awhile.

"We think we're in a 10 to 15 percent correction that will last three to four months. It will generally be backing and filling. There will be a little bounce back and forth but the trend is still lower," he said.

"We think this is going to last through most of the first half of the year...We have a 1200 target on the S&P, but we think in the near term dip, we make it down to 1000 or slightly below," said Burkly.

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/35374249?refresh=true

[NickC]

Wall Street debt scam.
http://m.cnbc.com/id/35392686

[NickC]

FYI: I track 20 Country ETF's 17 out of the 20 are in a down trend and looking like they are going lower to me. The only 3 that have a glimmer of coming out of their down trend is Mexico, Canada and Taiwan! Italy, Spain and France are the worst of the bunch and a surely going lower in my eyes!
My thoughts:
We are in a bear market.
Global markets are not looking good (going lower)!
If you look at the daily chart for the S&P 500 the last five days were a pull back that was anemic (more sideways than a strong pullback) many indicators confirm getting weaker not stronger. Now everything is amplified in EDZ 3X because of the 3X... so its not for the faint of heart. I am still in and expect the down tread to continue next week.
Anyone else's thoughts on this?

Here is a graph of IVV (S&P500 ETF) on the top is Guppy M Moving Averages (GMMA) where you can clearly see the latest penetration of the trader group (red lines) far exceeds the penetration in mid July 2009. These short term investor are STARTING to gain confidence in the down trend depicted in the down trend of the red lines in the last month and red moving average lines are starting to spreading out. Long term investors represented by the the light blue averages are now changing their minds (that the long uptrend may have now ended) indicated by the bunching up of the light blue lines (moving averages) but still no consensus among these long term investors (consensus would be indicated by light blue lines trending down and lines spreading apart. the bottom of the chart is my custom design that looks at 10 countries and does short term analysis for each and then gives me how many out of ten have good or bad short term technicals at a glance. As you can see the last Histogram bar is red and at -7 noting that seven out of ten countries are showing bad short term technicals on their daily chart.
Q: Anyone have any additional Elliott Wave analysis?

[NickC]

THANKS giff! I'll try that!

[zsvq1p]

Nick... what you can do is this... It looks hard but it is not...

1) Bring up the chart on your browser.
2) If it is stockcharts you can make an "annotate".. but you can do this with anything on your own computer screen.
3) using the Print Scrn on your keyboard, push it. That stores the image.
4) Assuming Microsoft Paint.. open your paint program. Select File, New.
5) select Paste; You will see what you took a picture of...
6) then use the tool to block only what you want us to see... (this is called cropping if you have that) Select Cut; You just took a picture of what you want us to see.
7) then make a new jpg by selecting File, New again... then Paste.
8) now save that file somewhere on your hard drive.. File then save as
9) upload that to Ihubs Add Pictures to Your Library. This is located in the menu top right hand... Other (it's under that white Forex menu button.
10) use the Browser to find where you saved that jpg file...

11) then cut and past the chart stuff to the post...


this is the Microsoft xp paint...

[NickC]

Hi, giff: A couple of months ago I tried to cut and paste a chart on the investors hub CPQQ board. It didn't work. Am I doing something wrong? I don't see a button to upload an image either???
Anybody know how to do it?

[xero90]

good call

[zsvq1p]

hey nick... is it too much trouble to post that chart with comment? TIA

[NickC]

My Technical Analysis Calculations show a Up day for EDZ tomorrow ....

Take a look at Finite Volume Element chart for daily /ES (E-mini S&P index futures) to confirm my thesis.

Chart (indicator) shows a down day for /ES tomorrow.

My approach is to apply the correct study (indicator) to the correct situation.

:)

[stockguard]

China orders retreat from risky assets

"When the world's biggest investor turns risk-averse, that is something you take notice of. We think this could become the new theme for the markets in the medium-term," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7205110/China-orders-retreat-from-risky-assets.html

[stockguard]

Chart of the Day for Wed Feb 10th 2010
APKT,APPA,BGZ,CNXT,EDZ,FAZ

Harry Boxer

He`s looking for a 5th wave up from here.........

http://www.thetechtrader.com/chartofday/

[NickC]

I've been doing a lot of research today and scaled down my position in FPX and plan on buying more EDZ tomorrow. I hope that I don't miss the boat if EDZ takes off without me (I already have 10K shares so its not like I loose all together) :)... I got in to EDZ and FXP on January 15th 2010. I have had a great run. I have noticed that EDZ is always 1% or so higher profit each day than FXP so that is my reason for the scale down. Not that it was time to get out.
Also my analysis: NQGM does correlate very nicely with EDZ. CHN does not correlate anywhere as well.
Why I think that I am still OK buying EDZ tomorrow is that NQGM is pretty near to the top of its trading range .... We'll see how THAT works out for me... Have a GREAT night!!!

[NickC]

I try and track EDZ with CHN and NQGM anybody have a better way?Maybe certain kind of futures?
Anybody?

I am seeing a divergence again today? Any opinions why?

[totffe]

I noticed that. EDZ should have fallen more with that huge DOW turn around. This tells me that there is some sentiment factor at work, and it does not exactly track indexes. Bullish. I think a little market upside Monday, also, and I will then jump right into EDZ even more. Next market leg down will be huge.

[NickC]

One big thing in my mind is although many markets came back for a small gain on Friday.... EDZ and FXP held on to fair gains. :)

[NickC]

Thanks for the GREAT Elliott Wave post!!! My take: EDZ has now broken through (daily chart technical analysis) its band of resistance (big plus). The Overseas Markets continue to look bad. USA may now be back to Bear market.
I am thinking possibly that Monday may initially be up to finish shaking out the new investors that Shorted Fridays lows only to see the big reversal. I am still holding strong with EDZ and FXP as my main positions.......Best to all. Time will tell!

[totffe]

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=88937&tid=13618&mid=13618&tof=3&frt=2

[Snook]

Two great days from EDZ. Very nice play.

[totffe]

http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html

[totffe]

I bought a good amount at 5.51 today. We shall see.

[NickC]

I got out last Thursday for a few days to watch this pull back go by. Yes The global markets are in a down trend. maybe the US markets will give us a nice push... Time will tell :)

[totffe]

I am thinking that now is the time to just buy, and walk away for awhile. The trend for the markets is down, so this ETF should be golden for a month at least. That is rational, which means I am probably wrong.

[ILVMNY]

Well, I was hoping for a bounce back to the 50 ma before a tank to give me a better buy-in price. :) I can hope.

[totffe]

I hope you are not too late. We could open ugly on Monday, but I think it is a steady fall from here. When Israel strikes Iran, EDZ goes to 20.

[ILVMNY]

Those were great calls here for January. It's getting ugly. I'm eyeing EDZ and a few others. Planning on entering three contras next week.

[totffe]

The correction has arrived, it will be global, and it will be steep. This is an excellent place to park your money, awaiting DOW 8500.

[NickC]

The more I analyze the more I come up with we are in a little early. What I am seeing is still having resistance to about $6.12 . Does anyone still feel comfortable with a long position from here and why?
Thanks!

[itswhatido]

hope eveyrbody is making a couple bucks off this one...GO EDZ

[zsvq1p]

I think you were/are right!

[NickC]

I'm in with EDZ 6800 shares today.
I was scanning global markets and was struck with how many were below or just below the 50 day moving average :)

[itswhatido]

nice looking chart,,,i do think US is in for some tougher times,,,unemployment still hovering at 10% ,,,consumer spending isnt any where near 06' levels,,,but still the dow looks like its going to penetrate 11000,,big banks posting record profits,,so its hard to say,,,time will tell,,,got any possible picks for the next 10 bagger?

[itswhatido]

nice looking chart,,,i do think US is in for some tougher times,,,unemployment still hovering at 10% ,,,consumer spending isnt any where near 06' levels,,,but still the dow looks like its going to penetrate 11000,,big banks posting record profits,,so its hard to say,,,time will tell,,,got any possible picks for the next 10 bagger?

[zsvq1p]

I'm not ready for the run... I bailed... lol
OK I'll think about it some more.

Think the US is in for some tough times ahead?

Here is the bull of this one... this one has been good.

[itswhatido]

ya doesnt ever give you more than a dollar,,,thats if you patient with it,,look into bzcn,,,ready for a nice run next week,,,good luck

[zsvq1p]

Seems it never pops more then a buck or so?? I'm not so sure I like this ETF...

[itswhatido]

i think we get a nice little push back into the 6's...this is always good for a dollar gain over a week or two...im in for 150 shares at 4.55...lets grow some legs and get her moving in an upward motion...GO EDZ

[zsvq1p]

This was a bad pick for me...

down 13% already!

Should I bail out?

[Snook]

Indeed we will.

[zsvq1p]

I picked a few shares myself... we'll see

[Snook]

Yep. I am in.

[Snook]

I'm thinking this could be a great one for early Jan.

[Snook]

Getting a nice level-off.

[Picassa]

If the market go south and $ go up, this will be the best train to make some profit.

IMHO

[Nilbud]

How did we get a shift between EDZ and EDC % gain/loss?

[HowardHughs]

EDZ can double from here IMO eom

[RonnieD]

US Dollar matches August 2008 all-time low.
G20 Meeting talks of increased global fiat currency stimulus.
stocks, metals all rising, everything but the dollar of course.

this one may not do well for quite a while.
maybe January

[RonnieD]

let's roll

[RonnieD]

Back in this today at 6.28-6.36 range.

I think January will be real ugly for the market. Think of all the capital gains just waiting to unload (put off for next tax year).
Technical support 10,000 Dow turned to Resistance.

39.50 Resistance on EEM, which determines EDZ price 3x inverse.
Emerging markets have more to fall and could fall more than U.S.

Only own EDZ on up days or very light down days.
If the ball is rolling towards you
you can get flattened.

wait for EEM to hit resistance
like today.