Diedrich Coffee, Inc. (DDRX)

[FAT STAX]

You must have also done pretty good here. Congrats!

[FAT STAX]

You must have made a killing along with HokieHead. Congratulations to both of you, especially to HokieHead for being spot on about this from the beginning and to you for riding shotgun.

[FAT STAX]

Sure looks that way. I've been averaging up almost daily from $8.78 a few days ago and will keep buying to at least $20. This is the mother of all winners so far and is showing no signs of letting up anytime soon so I'm enjoying the ride.

Many Thanks for the continued excellent DD HokieHead you've been spot on about this since the run began and my only regret is not finding out this earlier but I'm still very happy there's plenty of room to run to at least $20 maybe as soon as a couple weeks if this pace continues.

[HokieHead]

Another new closing high. This puppy may be $15+ at week's end.

[HokieHead]

With today's close of $9.12, comparing DDRX to the following competitors, they are still the cheapest going forward. I was able to pull most of the information from yahoo, though the earnings for DDRX I plugged in $1.50. I figure Fiscal 2009 will be in the $1 to $2 range. Probably closer to $2 though with the Walmart news..

Share Prices:
CBOU $4.50
GMCR $72.00
PEET $27.00
SBUX $13.80
DDRX $9.12

Shares Outstanding:
CBOU 19.4 million
GMCR 24.7 million
PEET 12.9 million
SBUX 734.6 million
DDRX 5.5 million

Market Caps:
CBOU $87.3 million
GMCR $1.8 billion
PEET $348 million
SBUX $10.2 billion
DDRX $50.1 million

Most Recent Quarter Revenue Growth (YOY):
CBOU lower than prior year quarter
GMCR 60.0%
PEET 7.0%
SBUX lower than prior year quarter
DDRX 72.3%

Forward Earnings:
CBOU $0.10
GMCR $1.74
PEET $1.15
SBUX $0.85
DDRX $1.50

Forward PE Ratio:
CBOU 45
GMCR 41
PEET 24
SBUX 16
DDRX 6

DDRX PPS at competitors forward PE:
CBOU $68
GMCR $62
PEET $36
SBUX $24

In conclusion, to value DDRX going forward, it should trade somewhere between $24 to $68 when compared to it's competition.

[FAT STAX]

I noticed just from today's action in this that it moves on air...it just exploded right after the opening bell...I was scrambling to try and get some before $9.

You were right about this from the very beginning so a well deserved congratulations to you is in order for an awesome call then subsequent banking of serious profits....very nice!

What other hidden gems do you like?

TIA

[FAT STAX]

Nicely done fellow hokie! I only wish I found out about when you did. I first found out about this last night and jumped in @ $8.78 this morning. After all I've read about this, I'm holding for $20.

[HokieHead]

I had over 12k shares at an average price of .72 cents. Bought almost all of them that Monday AM after the Friday news of the sale of GJ's. I had a GTC order set for $10 and it sold sometime around noon. Biggest hit I have ever made. I had to cash out and take the profits. I will buy some back either higher or lower, but had to pull the trigger. I still think this will be a $20+ stock in the next few months...

[HokieHead]

Dude, what a mistake.

It is up over $8 after hours on GMCR's blowout earnings and will probably trade over $10 tomorrow on the news that Coffee People and Gloria Jeans will now be sold in Walmart and Costco.

Imo, I would buy it back asap and go long. This will be $10+ by Friday and over $20 next month imo...

Valuation, Valuation, Valuation...

Share Prices:
CBOU $3.33
GMCR $53.19
PEET $23.14
SBUX $13.20
DDRX $7.78

Shares Outstanding:
CBOU 19.4 million
GMCR 24.7 million
PEET 12.9 million
SBUX 734.6 million
DDRX 5.5 million

Market Caps:
CBOU $64.6 million
GMCR $1.3 billion
PEET $299 million
SBUX $9.7 billion
DDRX $42.8 million

Most Recent Quarter Revenue Growth (YOY):
CBOU lower than prior year quarter
GMCR 56.3%
PEET 12.5%
SBUX lower than prior year quarter
DDRX 72.3%

Forward Earnings:
CBOU $0.10
GMCR $1.69
PEET $1.09
SBUX $0.83
DDRX $1.50 (my low estimate)

Forward PE Ratio:
CBOU 34
GMCR 32
PEET 21
SBUX 16
DDRX 5

DDRX PPS at competitors forward PE:
CBOU $51
GMCR $48
PEET $32
SBUX $24

In conclusion, to value DDRX going forward, it should trade somewhere between $24 to $51 when compared to it's competition.

[palmwalk]

I shorted DDRX today its the first down day after a HUGE run up in price, 1,600% gain in a month to be exact. This just isn't sustainable in my opinion.

[joey13]

This one turned out alot better than Good Old SCRA..lol

Looks great. Great Find..

[mkinhaw]

Very nice work
congrats
MK

[HokieHead]

DDRX posts huge numbers.

As I said before, this will be a $10+ stock!


Diedrich Coffee Reports Third Quarter Earnings
Monday April 20, 2009, 9:28 pm EDT

IRVINE, Calif., April 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Diedrich Coffee, Inc. (Nasdaq: DDRX - News) today announced operating results for its third quarter ended March 4, 2009. For the quarter, the Company reported net income of $1,358,000 or $0.25 per share, compared to a net loss of $2,153,000, or $0.39 loss per share, for the third quarter of the prior fiscal year.

Year-to-date, the Company reported a net loss of $1,420,000, or $0.26 loss per share, compared to a net loss of $3,582,000, or $0.66 loss per share, for the comparable period in the prior fiscal year. The year-to-date results of the prior fiscal year included an after-tax gain of $767,000, or $0.14 per share, from escrow proceeds received in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008 from the sale of the majority of the Company's Diedrich Coffee and Coffee People company-operated locations, which was completed in the 2007 fiscal year.

Revenue

Total revenue increased by $8,187,000, or 72.3%, to $19,509,000 for the third quarter of fiscal year 2009 as compared with total revenue of $11,322,000 in the same period of the prior year. With respect to the components of total revenue, wholesale revenue increased $7,721,000, up 79.9% from the prior year period, franchise revenue decreased $78,000, down 11.9% from the prior year period, and retail sales increased $544,000, up 54.3% from the prior year period. Year-to-date, total revenue increased by $14,913,000, or 46.7%, to $46,843,000 as compared with $31,930,000 in the same period of the prior year. With respect to the components of total revenue, wholesale revenue increased $14,864,000, up 56.1% from the prior year period, franchise revenue declined $441,000, down 21.1% from the prior year period, and retail sales increased $490,000, up 14.7% from the prior year period, as compared to the same period of the prior year.

For the current quarter, wholesale sales to office coffee service distributors ("OCS"), specialty retailers and foodservice customers increased $7,478,000, or 84.5%, from the prior year quarter. Wholesale sales to franchise locations increased $243,000, or 30.0%, for the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Year-to-date, wholesale revenue increased $14,864,000 or 56.1% to $41,361,000 from $26,497,000 compared to the same period in the prior fiscal year. Wholesale sales to OCS, specialty retailers and foodservice customers increased $15,104,000, or 65.4%, for the year to date period from the same period of the prior year. Wholesale sales to franchise locations decreased $240,000, or 7.1% from the same period of the prior year.

Franchise revenue decreased by $78,000 for the third quarter of the current fiscal year from the prior year period and by $441,000 for the current year-to-date period from the prior year period, primarily due to a net decrease in unit count and negative comparable store sales. Comparable store sales reported by the Gloria Jean's franchise system for the year-to-date period of fiscal year 2009 as compared to the comparable fiscal 2008 period were down 3.8% due to decreases in consumer spending in a weakened economy.

Retail sales increased $544,000 for the third quarter of fiscal year 2009 from the prior year period and by $490,000 for the current year-to-date period from the prior year period primarily due to an increase in the number of company-operated retail locations. Ecommerce related sales increased $85,000, or 21.9% for the third quarter of fiscal year 2009 from the prior year period, and increased $82,000 for the fiscal 2009 year-to-date period at $1,216,000 compared to $1,134,000 for the comparable prior fiscal year period.

[HokieHead]

Another nice day today...

3 other Boardmarks, hope you guys are on board! Should be a nice ride here.

Remember this one, lol! $5,000 in early 2003 would have gotten you $500,000 13 months later! You never know lol!

[HokieHead]

Amazon and K-Cups...

Green Mountain & Tully's have 49 kinds of K-Cups on Amazon. Diedrich, Coffee People & Gloria Jeans have 54 kinds of K-Cups for sale on Amazon, pretty close comparison.

Check the link of Bestsellers:

http://www.amazon.com/s/qid=1239062082/ref=sr_hi?ie=UTF8&rs=383448011&bbn=&rh=n%3A491297011%2Cn%3A383447011|383448011&page=1

DDRX in the Top 50: 18 in top 50 including #1 and 6 out of the top 12 sellers.

GMCR/Tully's in the Top 50: 1 in top 50. #33 and it's Tully's.

DDRX sales figures are going to be huge. To think you can buy this for just over $1 and it only has a $7 million market cap?

Freakin steal!

[HokieHead]

200 day held and 13/50 are skyrocketing up. DDRX will get noticed as the top nasdaq gainer this week. This is a 10 bagger+ waiting to happen. Once it hits $5 its also marginable lol! No MM games here either, its a big board stock..

[HokieHead]

Here was a comment in the Annual Report:

"Our management has developed an annual operating plan for the 2009 fiscal year and we expect a return to profitability and to generate positive cash flow in the year ahead. We have taken steps to shift focus of our available resources towards strengthening of the wholesale business segments in order to sustain our our projected growth in fiscal 2009."

It seems they may be right on target with this plan as the 2009 fiscal year starts in July for them.

As far as the first 2 Q's of 2008, Wholesale revenues alone were $24 million, if they increase revenues only 25% per quarter (they did 32.5% from Q1 to Q2), total Wholesale revenue will be in the $63 million ballpark.

If they can grow this business by 50% in 2009, the Wholesale revenue alone will be close to $100 million. If they plan to be profitable and can flow thru the same margin that GMCR does to the bottom line (4.5%), they can earn $4.5 million, or .82 a share in fiscal year 2009.

Current PE would then be 2 versus GMCR at 38, PEET at 27 and SBUX at 50. A similar PE to GMCR would place DDRX around $30 per share. Cut the PE in half and you still have a $15 stock.

They reports earnings on the 20th of this month. Do not need to hear about past results, but what they are saying about fiscal 2009. So far they are on target with their plan imo, the stock price just needs to catch up :)

[HokieHead]

Closed at high of day. $1.40 looks like a little wall. A break thru that tomorrow and this should race to at least $2.00 imo!

[HokieHead]

Was at the high of the day of $1.40 and a small 1,100 trade at $1.23 closes it red after 5,000+ goes off above $1.35.

This should close between $1.75 and $2.00 tomorrow imo.

[mm107]

sooo shhhhh and let me load up! lolol

taking a closer look here!

[HokieHead]

Yesterday's gains holding. Today's drop on no volume. This will close north of $1.75 today imo...

Super low float and o/s here. Hedgies will love this and take it to double digits easy imo...

[mm107]

dont feel bad! lol im lurking!

[HokieHead]

Cannot believe I am alone here...lol!

[HokieHead]

Huge part of Friday’s News:


"In late 2006, Diedrich Coffee announced the sale of certain company-operated Diedrich Coffee and Coffee People retail stores as part of our plan to expand our wholesale business and focus the retail side of our business on our Gloria Jean's franchise operations. With the transaction announced today, we will take that strategy one step further and focus primarily on the sale of specialty coffees in our wholesale business channels," said J. Russell Phillips, president and chief executive officer of the Company.
"With demands for specialty coffees for restaurants, offices and specialty retail stores continuing to trend up, Diedrich Coffee has experienced significant growth in its wholesale business especially in the sale of Keurig K-cups."
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They are concentrating their efforts now into the wholesale business area, which is a huge and growing market. Everyone I know as well as at work, are starting to get K-Cup machines.
From their last earnings:

Wholesale revenue increased for the second quarter of fiscal year 2009 by $3,295,000 or 31.8% over the second quarter of fiscal year 2008. For the current quarter wholesale sales to office coffee distributors ("OCS"), specialty retail and foodservice customers increased $3,622,000, or 41.4%, from the prior year quarter, with Keurig "K-cup" sales increasing 48.6% from the prior year quarter.
Wholesale sales to OCS and foodservice customers increased $7,626,000, or 53.3%, from the same period of the prior year, with Keurig "K-cup" sales increasing 66.3% from the prior year.

[HokieHead]

DDRX is way undervalued....


If Diedrich’s were to carry a P/S ratio of only 0.75, below GMCR’s 2.0 and PEET’s 1.0, you would have a $7 PPS.