Derf's Grotto

[fung_derf]

I said many small monies go to the church, but 1 Bill Gates makes up for all those small donors

[ergo sum]

Under $25,000
$1,874
12.3%

These people give the most.

The majority of charitable dollars go to religion (32%), education (16%), human services (12%), grantmaking foundations (11%), and health (9%).
Environmental and animal organizations experienced the largest giving increase, receiving 7.2% more than the previous year.

[fung_derf]

OK. Giving time can be purposeful. The Spousal_unit wants to work with Habitats for Humanity.
I'd say many small monies go to the church, but large donations go elsewhere (sometimes for favors in return). I donate a fair amount to my college, fraternity, and Wounded Warriors and most likely this year to Israel.
I guess I don't hang with a lot of liberals, but the Spousal certainly does, which means I have to as well. These people are extremely wealthy and talk all the time about how "someone" should help these people and "these charities deserve support"....then never do it themselves. FWIW, I respect the celebrities who contribute themselves vs those who will give a show for a charity. May work out to the same, but one requires actually opening a wallet or checkbook.
As for my conservative friends, they just donate and don't talk about it much. You learn they've done it through others. I don't talk about my donations either. I don't need accolades.
Ever see the Curb your Enthusiasm episode where Ted Danson contributes anonymously, but makes sure everyone knows he's "anonymous".
I will say, the Liberals I know of, are quick to donate the use of their mansions to politicians for fundraising, but I'm sure that's just to be nice. I've met more Democrat Presidential candidates than I'd like to.

[ergo sum]

I know many liberals who give their time freely. Maybe they don’t have much. But you know most charity money goes to churches. Sounds like you don’t know many liberals but apparently you hear conservatives who don’t talk much.

[fung_derf]

$SHDIGX has been spiking like mad since the end of Sept.....today it is down, but just a little bit. What's going on with China?

[fung_derf]

5 Investor Takeaways: Red Wave Paves the Way for Economic Protectionism

November 6, 2024

Eric Stein, CFA

Head of Investments and CIO of Fixed Income


President-elect Donald Trump is set to reshape America around lower taxes, higher tariffs, less regulation, more drilling and fewer immigrants. At the time of publication, the House race is too close to call, but Republicans appear on the verge of controlling both chambers of Congress. Here’s what it means for markets.

1. Full extension of 2017 tax cuts positive for growth
With Congressional support, Trump is poised to leave a lasting mark on the U.S. tax code, making key provisions of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, including lower individual tax rates and immediate expensing of capital equipment investments and research costs (“bonus depreciation”). Trump has also stated that he wants to lower the corporate tax rate to 15% for U.S. manufacturers and to make tip income nontaxable.

These tax cuts will contribute to meaningful deficit growth and, together with rising federal debt service costs, will lead to a further increase in the budget deficit. The Treasury market seems only occasionally concerned about the budget deficit these days, but it could become a more acute focus at some point.

Implications: Good for stocks, as a lower corporate tax rate could benefit capital-intensive businesses such as manufacturers, financials and sectors with high R&D expense, including pharma and tech. Less good for bonds, as higher growth and inflation expectations could steepen the yield curve, led by higher back-end yields.

Issues
2. Higher China tariffs may shift supply chains and raise inflation risks
Trump has been a staunch proponent of using tariffs to tackle unfair trade practices and boost domestic production. Presidents can impose tariffs up to 50%, and with full congressional backing Trump could threaten even higher rates. But which threats are genuine and which are simply negotiating tactics?

A universal 10-20% tariff on all imports would violate many existing trade agreements and provoke retaliation. His willingness to grant exemptions suggests an effort to broaden access to foreign markets. For China, however, higher tariffs signal a strategic shift away from an increasingly adversarial government.

As America’s third-largest trading partner, China accounted for nearly $500 billion a year in imports during the Trump and Biden administrations.1 Biden largely maintained Trump’s China tariffs, currently 19.3% (compared with a 3.0% average for other countries).2 Further increasing these tariffs and, with the backing of Congress, revoking China’s most favored nation status would cause major ripples across global supply chains, potentially shifting more manufacturing to countries such as India, Mexico and Canada, and boosting domestic production.

Implications: Trump’s first-term tariffs had relatively limited direct economic impacts, with retaliatory measures offsetting increased U.S. duties and widening the trade deficit by 55%, from $40 billion in 2016 to $62 billion in 2020.3 Tariffs are often called "shadow taxes" on importers, who pass costs to consumers through higher prices. Moreover, with the economy at full employment, the challenge of filling domestic jobs could drive wage inflation, pushing overall goods and services prices higher.

Higher tariffs can have far-reaching and unexpected consequences. They can increase the cost of tech components and drive up mortgage rates. Sectors that produce durable goods such as home appliances, consumer electronics and toys could be the hardest hit. But even services and nondurable manufacturing sectors like food, beer and clothing could also face negative impacts, along with multinational corporations, retailers and auto manufacturers. Yields on Treasury bonds could rise as a result of higher inflation expectations.

3. Don’t underestimate the significance of the coming deregulation wave
The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent reversal of Chevron deference4 will hand Trump sweeping authority to roll back regulations. For example, by emphasizing a narrower interpretation of regulatory powers, the EPA could relax methane emission rules on oil and gas producers. Financial services companies could get relief from Dodd-Frank (although the Federal Reserve has already relaxed capital requirements). And the Federal Trade Commission will see a regime change that could take a softer stance on antitrust enforcement and usher in a wave of mergers and acquisitions.

Deregulation also promises benefits for small business owners, for whom regulatory compliance is often the biggest cost. Changes in regulatory enforcement could streamline tax filing, ease wage and hour requirements, allow access to lower-cost health care plans and reduce environmental and worker safety costs.

Implications: We believe the market has yet to fully bake in the power of a post-Chevron ethos converging with an administration focused on deregulation. The combination of lower regulatory costs, lower corporate taxes and lower financing costs could give the economy a meaningful boost.

4. It’s a drilling party! … but will anyone RSVP?
Trump sees traditional (thermal) energy as a pro-growth job creator. He will likely restore land lease and offshore development sales to pre-Biden levels and has said he’ll approve all pending drilling permits (currently ~5,700).5 But that may not drive the spike in production he desires: a) nearly 7,000 approved permits aren’t being used, b) similar to his last time in office, a spike in new lease offerings wouldn’t occur until late in his term, and c) companies face the risk that rushed or under-vetted lease sales may be rescinded in the future. Offshore drilling may be even harder to turbocharge, as development timelines are longer.6

Implications: While oil and gas stocks might rally, don’t expect a significant near-term earnings bump from Trump’s policies. Energy transition and EV stocks may briefly slump over grumbling about the Inflation Reduction Act and risks of tariff disruptions to supply chains. However, strong state backing, Big Tech’s preferences and private market funding make a clean energy retreat unlikely. Solar, wind and storage are proven energy technologies that boast clear advantages over thermal: They’re faster to build, use free fuel and have lower running costs, making them economically favorable for sponsors and developers.

5. Immigration controls limited by prohibitive costs, logistics and economic disruption
Delivering on Trump’s pledge to deport all 11 million7 undocumented immigrants would require massive funding—somewhere in the ballpark of $220 billion, assuming an average cost of $20k8 per deportee—which would likely exceed the appetite of even a willing Congress. Logistical challenges would include hiring thousands of new border agents and immigration judges, building detention facilities, coordinating with state and local law enforcement, deploying the National Guard, and reassigning federal workers. Furthermore, deporting what amounts to 4.8%7 of the U.S. workforce would result in significant economic upheaval, higher inflation pressures, lower tax revenues, and ripple effects to consumption. A more feasible scenario is a framework similar to the proposed-then-killed bipartisan Border Act of 2024.

Implications: A unified Congress will offer a smoother pathway for additional funding, though likely on a smaller scale given the immediate focus on tax cuts. We estimate Trump’s immigration and tariff policies may reduce GDP by around 0.5% in 2025.

Closing thoughts: Markets are nonpartisan—it’s the economy that matters
U.S. companies have a history of skillfully managing their way through different political climates, resulting in strong returns under both Republican and Democratic administrations (with one recent notable exception).

With the election over, markets can refocus their attention on macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. The U.S. economy is in strong shape, with consumer and government spending propelling GDP at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. Inflation is trending down, wage growth remains manageable, and the Federal Reserve remains in the early stages of rate cuts. Despite some unusual patterns playing out in the post-Covid business cycle, we aren’t seeing the kind of buildup of excess that typically precedes a significant recession.

Implication: Don’t let politics derail your investment strategy.

.

[fung_derf]

Your source was a bit generic and from 2007, so I looked for something more complete and up to date, if you care to peruse it.

https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/almanac/statistics-on-u-s-generosity/

I typically distrust much of the info I read now, so prefer to go by what my eyes can actually see. I know wealthy people who are both very conservative and very liberal. My personal findings have been....
Liberals talk more about charity, but actually do less
Conservatives don't talk about it much, but give more.

[fung_derf]

I'm going to quit trying to predict elections. I can't believe how wrong I was on results both Nationally and locally.
The only thing I can figure is liberals stirred a hornet's nest which drove typically passive voters, to get out their and be proactive. In my neighborhood I'm probably the only close to down the middle of the road voter and I can say, all my buddies were riled up. I just didn't think it would matter.
Was she really disliked this much or did people just not think she was experienced enough? I am honestly shocked by such a Republican sweep.

[ergo sum]

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2016/11/27/the-average-americans-charitable-donations-how-do.aspx

ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME (AGI)
AVERAGE CHARITABLE DEDUCTION
% OF AGI
Under $25,000
$1,874
12.3%
$25,000-$50,000
$2,594
6.8%
$50,000-$75,000
$2,970
4.8%
$75,000-$100,000
$3,356
3.8%
$100,000-$200,000
$4,130
3%
$200,000-$500,000
$7,424
2.6%
$500,000-$1,000,000
$18,615
2.8%
$1,000,000-$2,000,000
$43,944
3.2%
$2,000,000 or more
$382,953
5.6%

[fung_derf]

I don't know what will happen, but I'm seeing aftermarket trading is rocketing now, so someone does.
If the 1% were happy with what they have and were delighted to spend to help the lower class, then why haven't they been?
Although, I can tell you, Republicans (Conservatives) give more to charities than Liberals do.
BTW, I do agree CEO's make way too much money, but then again, how many have happy first marriages? You have to give up something to climb the economic ladder

[ergo sum]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
These numbers are fairly constant for decades. Still the 1 % isn’t short of cash.
Right now the corporations are doing great. Somehow you think Trump would fix that?

[fung_derf]

Once upon a time people invented stuff. Now corporations do. Overly tax the wealthy and two things happen, the economy slows (as does hiring), and
Costs get passed on to consumers.
There's no such thing as helping small business, Costco, Amazon and Walmart have wiped them out.
Of course you might be referring to Musk. He checks off all boxes.

[ergo sum]

The economy is not a goverment program. People invent computers, internets, software, AI etc. that is what dives the economy.

[fung_derf]

I fear for our future with either. As flawed as Trump is, I find Harris just as inadequate of doing the job.
Either could put us into a World War for opposite reasons.
I see only one of them good for the economy....so, pick your poison.

[ergo sum]

One’s a spiteful sob and the other one’s a decent woman. Not a hard choice!

[fung_derf]

Thank you stranger.

[ergo sum]

AI Overview
Learn more
…
When faced with two bad options, you are in a dilemma. A dilemma is a situation where you must choose between two equally undesirable options. The word comes from the Greek words di- meaning "two" and lemma meaning "proposition".

[fung_derf]

So, today is the day and I'm skeered.
Is there a term for a scenario, where either result worries you?

[fung_derf]

Are people dumber today than in the 70's due to computers??
An example would be traveling with Googlemaps (or Waze)...It used to be, you had to learn your way to get somewhere, and you remembered for the future. Today, you just follow directions and have little clue how you got there.
Well, the same seems true with ALL information. People "Google" answers, rather than actually research and remember.
The problem as I see it is, information doesn't have to be true. There is so much false info on the internet (and I've always said, if people see it on the internet, they assume it must be true). So, the reality is, so much "fake news" is getting spread as fact. For myself, I no longer believe much of what I read or hear. Commercials for this election are nothing but negatives on the other person. Much of them seem to be spliced together (from both sides).
I go to sources like Snopes and Politifact, but who knows if they have an agenda? I've seen information on the internet just disappear! I don't even know how this is possible?
So, with so much information available, but no way to know if its real.....are we dumber?

[fung_derf]

Interesting watching $DJT. This is the first stock I know that may be directly related to a candidate. I'm watching the stock price flying up and down with volume on a daily basis. I'm assuming "someone" knows (or no one does) to who is leading the election, and this stock will show you who is leading.
BTW, I predict it will be a couple months before we know the actual results.

[fung_derf]

Reaaaally??? Well, you'd fit right in as a Texan. Just leave the boots in NY.
If for realz, you may have waited too long as we've finally had a bit of a housing boom after 30 years of nuttin.
I find it interesting that for the first time in our neighborhood, we are seeing Democrat signs in the yard. Not sure if it's Californians moving in, or Conservatives who just can't back Trump any more.
With the Yanks down 0-3, I can't blame ya' for being in a hurry to get out. Embarrassing

[Susie924]

Why are you watching a Texas Senators debate

I am trying to decide where I want to move so I am checking out a lot of the races.

[fung_derf]

You did?? Why are you watching a Texas Senators debate??? I didn't even know there was one. Who was the moderator?
Maybe Ted thinks its unnecessary?
I'm not a fan of Cruz's abortion laws ideas, but surprisingly, when I took the survey, I definitely agreed with him.......and the Libertarian, far more than Allred

[Susie924]

I watched a little of the debate and Cruz just looked disinterested

[fung_derf]

Not as long as Colin Allred keeps saying dumb stuff.
The reality is, I don't trust anything I've read or heard unless I was there personally to hear it.....and you probably shouldn't either. Objectivity is long gone from the media. ....and that goes quadruple for social media....well, and for society as a whole.

[Susie924]

Is Cruz in trouble?

He seems to like being a podcaster.

[fung_derf]

Well, I voted.....and now I feel dirty.
It's like if I had to choose between Pol Pot and Kim Jong Un......or take what's behind the curtain.

[fung_derf]

I took the Presidential quiz because I really don't know where I fall any more. Surprisingly it says I'm
74% Republican
19% Democrat

Personally, I was hoping to have a third party arise. I avoided all questions directly asking me my alliance.

https://www.isidewith.com/elections/2024-presidential-quiz

[fung_derf]

Ð....doing some cleaning up in one of my accounts. Sold $NVO for a 9% loss. Seems to be trending down for some reason not yet public. It may bounce back some, but I don't care for the overall outlook.
Sold my $ADM. Made a little money on it with dividends factored in, but earnings in the future look to be trending down.

[fung_derf]

Ð.....I doubled up my position in $SMCI today at $39.99. I had planned to wait for low $30's, but tired of waiting. Either I'll be right or be wrong.

[fung_derf]

Ð....OH GEEZ!!! The Shanghai Index has spiked wildly the last two weeks! From 2700 to 3300 in a week and a half!!! Something not good is happening...or is about to.

[fung_derf]

Ð.....I bought some ARDX today. Not gonna bother explaining why because no one is listening

[fung_derf]

I guess here's something worth considering when voting.....of course no one will..

BANKRUPTCIES JUMP. In Q2 2024,
2,462 companies filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy. That’s up 109% over the
past two years and the highest reading
since Q1 2012. (Source: Administrative
Office of US Courts)

[fung_derf]

Ð....Well, I first wrote about $HYLN when it was 93 cents. I bought in October.

fung_derf

Re: fung_derf post# 99863

Friday, December 22, 2023 10:29:39 AM

Post#
99917
of 100058

Today, with an approval for use in California it jumped to $2.72. Anyone who has been reading my posts knows I'm strongly opposed to penny stocks, but I've done plenty of due diligence on this one (including having lunch with the CEO).
I may dump a bit of it if/when it hits resistance soon, but who knows....it may be the next big thing?!!

[fung_derf]

Ð....I sold off about 60% of my $T today, basically taking out my cost basis. Will let the rest ride most likely.

[fung_derf]

Ð......Considering no one reads this board any more (or admits to it), I'm posting this for my own records....Today I bought $CLMB.
The chart has an incredible long base, which would imply a pretty large upside. I actually found this 4 months too late as it has doubled in the last 4 months, but I'm a believer.
Support is a long way down, so I hope I'm not wrong. Everything I own is up bigly right now and that should have alarm bells ringing in my head. Especially this close to the election.

[fung_derf]

When we were in Ecuador, we went out to lunch one day and at the next table was President Lasso. He was very friendly, in fact, so much so he came over and took pictures with us at our table. It gave me cause to look into the guy's history and what I found was pretty surprising. He owned the national banks so as President, controlled the interest rates and made them so incredibly high that few people could afford to buy anything. The country had surprisingly backward laws towards women and well eventually he was tied to Albanian Mafia and other corruption. In fact, the guy who was running against him was assassinated.
The whole time I was there I was thinking how glad to get back to America.
I guess we are now headed more towards them than they toward us. I probably shouldn't be surprised by the direction. News sources are unreliable. Progress has become stagnant and we are headed more towards the movie Wall-E at a faster pace than I thought possible. This all cannot end well.
Behold our future...

[fung_derf]

Did you see the grub Uber just stole here? How dare he?
24 years....funny, when you type it out it can make ya sad.
In 24 years you could have invented the self buttering toaster.
Yes, it was fun here once. I amazed by some of the people who have come and gone, but more amazed we are not.

[fung_derf]

I don't think that's how the grandfather status works, but I could be wrong.
I think they should name the shrimp board after you. Maybe call it, The Biggest Little Horror House in Texas?

[Susie924]

Yikes! I will be celebrating(?) 24 years here this month.

As bad as things have become, we did have a lot of fun here back in the day. I can remember laughing so hard I would be crying reading the old 202:board.

Meeting some Ihubbers (including you) was also fun.

24 years….. sheesh!

[uber darthium]

Hello Derfie, 09/08/2004 04:13:06 PM means I am coming to Grandfather status in just a few days

You think they will name a board after me ? We can call it “The Dark Side”

[fung_derf]

I just happened to look today and noticed this...

Alias Born 08/30/2001

Today is my 23 year anniversary!!!!!
I'd bring out the party hats, but truthfully, I'm disgusted to be here. This place has turned into a far bigger sewer than RagingBull was, and many of us came here to escape the riffraff.
If you had told me back then that after 20+ years there would still be moron penny stock investors who argue and defend the stock that is slowly draining their money, I'd say no way!! I mean, hip hugger pants on women lasted for only a few years, but penny stock pump and dumpers are here forever??? How is that fair?
Of course, I shouldn't talk. I've left this place a few different times, sometimes for years and yet I've come back for the abuse I get from both admin AND stupid people I try to educate.
It's funny, George W Bush was President when I first came on here. Many were convinced the country was doomed. I'd bet 98% of the country would now LOVE to have "W" as the man. Anyway, I digress. Considering politics killed this board (in spite of my insistence it stay off here), it seems to be the only thing that get people riled more than the "this penny stock is different..." debate.
Not quite sure (although I have an idea) why IHUB quickly went from a place to discuss investments to a place to scam greedy little cusses who believe all the wrong stuff they read on the internet.
Anyway, 23 years here and 23 years wasted trying to teach people to invest wisely. S&P 500 near an all time high and posters still ranting that even through their stock has lost money over the last 10 years, it's gonna take off any day now!
I used to have a small circle of friends and think that 1 or 2 of them had questionable decision making skills. Now I know there are millions. Pfffft, the internet. I wonder if Al Gore would still want credit for inventing it?

[uber darthium]

King of all Derf, hope you are well and doing what you do. Enjoy the time off but do check in and let your derfie loyal subjects know you alive, even if by PM

[gotmilk]

"Unlike derfie not to give pieces of his mind."

There was just so many pieces of his mind.

None left.

For the safety of IH members derfie has been restrained.

[eastunder]

I wondered the same thing.

Where is He? Last post was 4/5

Very unlike him not to give someone, somewhere, a piece of his mind. ;)

[gotmilk]

Conformity - To accept someone else's truth.

The novel 1984, by George Orwell.

[newmedman]

and you rightfully should.... those were my transparent thoughts at the time. I honestly still feel that same way today. I don't know how I was able to call them but I still feel bad for it. I possibly had too much time on my hands and tried to learn too quick. I think I'm a bad person for it but others called me a genius.

I've moved on from that point in my life but there's nothing wrong with exposing me as a ruthless bastard.. Some people might like that, others will be not so impressed. It's something I have to deal with on my own.

It's better just to be quiet now but I've broken that rule lately and don't want it to be a burn hole in my history.

I chime in on politics and should stay there. I still have shares in DAR but not as many as I used to in regards to your post about that. It treated me well and back 15 years ago I appreciated their business model. Today, not so much but I have WM shares too so I honestly think there's a profit in spoils..

Like I stated before, trash is treasure. It's not my fault for being indifferent. Ledger sheets are the key. We have to stay diversified over a bunch of things that are no brainers for American consumers wether we like it or not.

[gotmilk]

Don Derfie Quixote is on a Mission

[gfp927z]

Derf hasn't posted in a while, any news you are aware of?

Thanks for any updates. Hope he is OK.




---

[gotmilk]

Use Listerine in the morning and at night.

Colon Cancer Linked to Mouth Bacteria

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/colon-cancer-linked-to-mouth-bacteria/
.