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>>> CACI International (CACI) offers specialized technology services and consulting to the defense and intelligence industry. It is a beneficiary of the modernization efforts in the U.S. military and intelligence. Moreover, it will profit from the increased cyber warfare as we go ahead.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-defense-stocks-buy-210423930.html
The company provides digital solutions that modernize federal agencies and their IT. The Engineering Services segment enhances and hardens national technology systems to defend against malicious actors. Its C4ISR, Cyber & Space solutions provide electromagnetic spectrum advantage and deliver precision effects to protect federal agencies against national security threats.
CACI generates a significant portion of revenues from the federal government. In fiscal 2023, federal government contracts made up 94.8% of total revenues. Over the same period, contracts with agencies of the Department of Defense represented 71.9% of total revenues.
Over the past decade, revenues have been steadily increasing, given the growth in defense spending. This growth will likely continue due to the critical nature of CACI’s services to the U.S. government.
The company has secured key defense contracts from the U.S. government. For instance, it won a $5.7 billion Air Force Enterprise IT contract in June to modernize and transform Airforce IT services. And in August, it bagged another $2.7 billion contract from the National Security Agency. These awards highlight why CACI is one of the best defense stocks to buy.
In terms of valuations, the stock is reasonably valued. For the full year ending June 30, 2023, it earned an adjusted diluted EPS of $18.83. Thus, as of this writing, it trades at 17 times trailing earnings. Given the stability of its defense business and expected secular defense spending, CACI stock is a bargain.
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Rickards - >>> Could WWIII Begin in Black Sea?
BY JAMES RICKARDS
SEPTEMBER 19, 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/could-wwiii-begin-in-black-sea/
Could WWIII Begin in Black Sea?
I’ve written frequently in the past about the risks of escalation in the war in Ukraine. Of course, all wars carry such risks and often the escalation plays out exactly as feared.
World War II began with the conventional weapons of the time (infantry, ships, aircraft, artillery, etc.) but eventually escalated to fire-bombing major cities like Dresden, annihilating entire army groups on the Eastern Front in Europe with millions of dead and the use of atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The same dynamic is playing out in Ukraine, although few Americans are aware of the full details.
The war began with a limited special military operation by Russia in Ukraine. It’s likely that Putin undertook the operation in order to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, not to conquer it. Essentially, Putin wanted Ukraine to abandon any plans to join NATO and to pledge neutrality (more on that in a minute).
By the way, people say Putin is a crazy warmonger who just wanted to retake Ukraine and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. But here’s what most people don’t realize:
Ukrainian membership in NATO was always a bright red line for any Russian leader, regardless of who he is. Even Russian “liberals” who might otherwise despise Putin agree that Ukraine must not join NATO. They regard it as a dagger pointed directly at the Russian heartland.
That might seem paranoid to some, but Russian history provides ample evidence of Russia’s vulnerability to invasion.
The point is, any Russian leader would strongly oppose Ukrainian membership in NATO — not just Putin.
A de Facto NATO Member
Others claim that NATO never actually offered Ukraine official membership, so that discredits Putin’s rationale for invading. They say it was just an excuse to disguise his real ambition to retake Ukraine.
While it’s technically true that NATO never offered Ukraine official membership, the reality is more complicated than that.
The fact is, NATO had been arming and training Ukraine’s armed forces for years. They conducted joint exercises. Ukraine was essentially becoming a de facto member of NATO as a result.
Putin formally protested and warned NATO (the U.S. in reality) about the consequences, but it fell on deaf ears.
Was Putin supposed to just wait around until NATO extended a formal invitation to Ukraine? By then, the Ukrainian armed forces would have been an even more formidable force and a legitimate threat to Russian interests.
By February 2022, Putin decided to act.
Many will accuse me of being a Putin propagandist for pointing all this out, but I’m just putting myself in his shoes. Any good analyst has to understand his opponent’s position, even if he thinks it’s wrong.
That’s what I’m doing. You can simultaneously condemn the Russian invasion while understanding it.
This entire disaster would have likely been avoided if the West took Russia’s security concerns more seriously instead of arrogantly dismissing them.
Let’s You and Him Fight
Again, Putin likely invaded to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russia only committed about 190,000 troops to the invasion, a relatively small number that couldn’t hope to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces (which were the second-largest in Europe) and occupy the entire country.
A much larger force would have been required if Putin planned to comprehensively defeat and occupy Ukraine.
And the plan actually worked. In April 2022, just over a month after the February invasion, Ukraine agreed to negotiate with Russia. Talks took place in Istanbul. Though we can’t say for sure how negotiations would have played out, documents indicate that Ukraine seemed willing to accept neutrality and abandon plans to join NATO.
But then Boris Johnson showed up (certainly with U.S. backing) and convinced the Ukrainians to break off negotiations. He pledged that NATO would provide Ukraine everything it needed to fight Russia, including advanced weapons and its full range of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.
It would basically marry the second-largest army in Europe to NATO’s most advanced electronic assets. Ukraine took Johnson up on the offer. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Ukrainians scored many initial battlefield successes.
The greater story here is that over 90% of the death and destruction that’s occurred in Ukraine over the past 18 months would likely have been avoided if Russia and Ukraine were allowed to continue negotiating last April.
But that wasn’t in the West’s interests. They wanted to weaken Russia by dragging it into a long and bloody conflict with their Ukrainian proxy. They didn’t care how many Ukrainians had to die along the way.
They still don’t.
Who Will Blink First?
Well, the war has now escalated to the largest and most deadly land war in Europe since World War II.
That escalation includes deliveries by the U.S. and other NATO members to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of advanced weaponry including Patriot anti-aircraft batteries, HIMARS mobile precision missile launchers, drones, Leopard tanks, Challenger tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and much more.
Russia has responded by increasing its troops in Ukraine to perhaps 500,000 (the exact number is secret) and deploying GPS jamming devices to negate the West’s advanced weaponry that relies on GPS guidance, hypersonic missiles (that can defeat the West’s air defenses), drones, heavy use of land mines and its highly effective S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
The danger in Ukraine is not just the obvious one of escalation. The danger is that both sides (Russia versus NATO) are nuclear powers. Someone’s going to have to climb down from the escalation ladder at some point, or the logic of escalation will ultimately place the U.S. and Russia into direct conflict.
Will the escalation end soon? Not likely. The U.S. is on the verge of adopting a new treaty called the Black Sea Security Act.
A glance at a map shows the Black Sea is surrounded by Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Russia and Ukraine are the main combatants. Georgia is under the thumb of Russia. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are all NATO members.
Not every NATO member will necessarily adopt the provisions of the Black Sea treaty. But if the U.S. does, it will set up a NATO versus Russia confrontation in the Black Sea itself.
This could involve using Romanian ports and NATO vessels to attack Russian navy ships in the Black Sea in the name of freedom of navigation. That’s not as unrealistic as you might think. Of course, the real purpose is to facilitate arms shipments to Ukraine via the Bosporus and the Black Sea.
This is one more step on the road to escalation and eventual nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine. Is anyone paying attention?
The Russians certainly are.
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"As reported cases of COVID-19 and hospitalizations increase, companies and universities are considering mask mandates for indoor facilities. According to the latest statistics from the CDC COVID-19 Data tracker, which covers August 6 through August 12, there were 12,613 hospital admissions—an increase of 21.6% from the most recent week. During that same week, deaths were a reported 1.3%, which was an increase of 8.3% from the previous week."
https://www.contagionlive.com/view/are-masks-making-a-comeback-
Rickards - >>> History’s Starting to Rhyme…
BY JAMES RICKARDS
AUGUST 29, 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/historys-starting-to-rhyme/
History’s Starting to Rhyme…
Has World War III already begun?
That’s not a facetious question meant to grab attention. It’s a legitimate question.
It’s often the case that momentous events begin in small ways and expand out of control. In retrospect, it seems obvious that war was inevitable. But at the time, it’s not obvious at all. Events might seem disconnected and it’s far from obvious that war is inevitable.
Historical hindsight is 20/20.
World War I was not called that at the time. It was called the Great War. It was only when World War II arrived that the name World War I was applied.
And how should we think about the beginning of World War II? Most historians date it from the German invasion of Poland on Sept. 1, 1939. Still, many Americans date the war from Dec. 7, 1941, when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor and the U.S. declared war on Japan.
But the Chinese can be forgiven for saying both dates are wrong. The Chinese look to the invasion of Manchuria by Japan on Sept. 18, 1931 as the real start of World War II.
A Matter of Perspective
The point is that both the start and finish of world wars and other major conflicts are not quite as cut and dried as historians would have it. It’s often a question of culture and perspective.
This brings us to the current state of the world. Has anyone raised a banner or made a declaration that World War III has begun? No. Is it often the case that there are brushfire and proxy wars going on in several parts of the world that don’t pose any clear danger of coalescing into a global conflagration?
The answer is yes.
The wars going on today are not all small and some are quite large. More importantly, they directly or indirectly involve great powers such as the U.S., China and Russia and important secondary powers, including nuclear powers such as France and Pakistan.
Moreover, the stakes are high including the future of NATO, control of Eastern Europe, control of Middle East oil and the global supply of uranium. More urgent than the current status of these conflicts is the likelihood of escalation leading to nuclear war with no reverse gear.
Let’s review these critical conflicts briefly. In doing so, keep in mind that we may be in a period such as the Balkan Wars (1912-1913) that presaged World War I, or the Japan-China wars (1931-1937) that presaged World War II.
The genii may already be out of the bottle.
Ukraine
Ukraine is the obvious place to begin. Russia is winning the war decisively. The Ukrainian counteroffensive was annihilated on June 6 and re-annihilated after a reboot of the offensive again in late July. Ukraine is now using light infantry tactics since their armor has been blown up by Russian mines and artillery and left burning on the battlefield.
The “wonder weapons” including Patriot missile batteries, HIMARS artillery, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Leopard tanks, Challenger tanks and Storm Shadow cruise missiles have all been destroyed by some combination of Russian hypersonic missiles, anti-aircraft defenses and artillery or mines, or have been disabled by GPS signal jamming and other forms of electronic warfare.
Ukrainian combat dead are estimated at over 200,000 and all for nothing.
Ukraine has no chance of winning the war, but the war may escalate anyway. Biden’s team does not want to admit a humiliating defeat. They do want to keep the war going until after the 2024 election to help Biden’s reelection chances. After that, Biden (if he wins) will ditch the Ukrainians just as he ditched the Afghanistan people in August 2021.
Keeping the war going means more aggressive acts in the Black Sea (possibly involving Romanian vessels; Romania is a NATO member), providing 155 mm cluster munitions (that mainly kill children when they don’t detonate as intended) and massing Polish troops (another NATO member) on the border of Belarus, which is in a treaty alliance with Russia. Poland has its own designs on western Ukraine as a revival of the Polish-Lithuanian federation that lasted from 1569-1795.
If Russia is pressed to sink a Romanian warship or if Poland moves into western Ukraine, you have a pretext for triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which would lead more or less directly to World War III, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Biden doesn’t care about any of this and U.S. warmongers like Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland are cheering it on.
Side-by-side with the kinetic war in Ukraine are the financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia. Biden has threatened to keep these sanctions in place “as long as it takes,” which could mean years the way the conflict is proceeding.
These sanctions have had no impact on Russian behavior or the Russian economy, but they have badly damaged the EU and the status of the U.S. dollar as a trusted store of value. These economic costs for the West will grow with the passage of time.
The Fight for Uranium
Another conflict with escalatory potential involves the state of Niger, located in the Sahara desert. A recent military coup d’état overthrew the elected government several weeks ago (although the coup leaders contend the election was fraudulent). Some surveys show that the military junta enjoys broad popular support.
Niger is France’s largest supplier of uranium, while France is one of the largest builders of nuclear power plants in the world. France desperately needs to restore order in Niger, including forcing the junta to step aside and reinstate the elected government.
France has special forces including the French Foreign Legion ready to intervene. However, France does not want to proceed unilaterally, and is trying to recruit African allies to join the invasion.
The most significant regional grouping is the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which includes both Francophone states like Senegal and Côte D’Ivoire and important Anglophone states such as Nigeria. France is recruiting ECOWAS to participate in its invasion of Niger.
ECOWAS members are divided on the idea. In any case, ECOWAS action would require approval of the African Union and possibly the United Nations as well as weeks of mobilization. So no military action is likely for several months at the earliest.
There’s no evidence that Russia was involved in the Niger coup, but Russia certainly stands as a major beneficiary. Russia is the other large manufacturer of nuclear power plants in addition to France.
Russia gets its uranium from inside Russia, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian republics. (Russia also owns large amounts of U.S. uranium deposits obtained in a deal authorized by Hillary Clinton in exchange for huge donations to the Clinton Foundation).
If Russia can cut off France’s access to Nigérien uranium, it will tighten its hold on global uranium supplies and enhance its position as a provider of nuclear power plants.
There is some talk now (not confirmed) that Russia may offer support to the Nigérien coup, including possible deployment of the Wagner Group mercenary army. That would greatly complicate any plans for French or ECOWAS involvement.
Again, we would have the specter of Russia (via Wagner) and France (a NATO member) squaring off in a war for uranium in the Sahara desert. The escalatory potential is obvious.
By the way, the bloodthirsty Victoria Nuland visited Niger recently and was not warmly received. She departed the country empty-handed. No doubt she left some threats of U.S. support for the French behind.
A Presage To The Third World War?
There are many other hot zones around the world including Taiwan, the South China Sea, Syria, and North Korea. Pakistan is perhaps the most dangerous because there is a rising conflict between the elected Prime Minister Imran Khan (now in prison and removed from office) and his supporters on the one hand, and the military on the other.
Chaos in Pakistan is inherently threatening at a global level because it is a nuclear armed power in a continual standoff with the nuclear armed India.
Perhaps these conflicts will resolve themselves in the fullness of time. Perhaps not. For now, they are individually threatening (because of escalation) and bear an eerie resemblance to the confluence of conflicts that presaged the two greatest wars in history.
History may not repeat itself, but it sounds like it’s beginning to rhyme.
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Slippery slope - >>> US, South Korea, Japan hold missile defence drill after North's ICBM launch
Reuters
July 15, 2023
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-south-korea-japan-hold-missile-defence-drill-after-north-s-icbm-launch/ar-AA1dUUpU?OCID=ansmsnnews11;
SEOUL (Reuters) - The U.S., South Korea and Japan held a joint naval missile defence exercise on Sunday to counter North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats, the South's navy said, days after the North launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
North Korea fired its latest Hwasong-18 missile, which Pyongyang describes as the core of its nuclear strike force, off the east coast on Wednesday in what it said was a "strong practical warning" to the adversaries.
Sunday's trilateral drill was conducted in international waters between South Korea and Japan, bringing together destroyers equipped with Aegis radar systems from the three countries, the navy said.
Washington and its Asian allies have been working to improve their information-sharing system on North Korea's missiles. South Korea and Japan are independently linked to U.S. radar systems but not to each other's.
The exercise aimed at mastering the allies' response to a North Korean ballistic missile launch with a scenario featuring a virtual target, the military said.
"We will effectively respond to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats with our military's strong response system and the trilateral cooperation," a South Korean Navy officer said.
The North's ICBM launch was denounced by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, though Pyongyang has rejected the condemnation, saying it was an exercise of its right to self-defence.
The latest launch followed heated complaints from North Korea in recent days, accusing American spy planes of flying over its exclusive economic zone waters, condemning a recent visit to South Korea by an U.S. nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine and vowing to take steps in reaction.
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$LLLI News: Lamperd Less Lethal Receives Two New Orders for Humane Animal Distraction Products
Orders Delivered for Retail Sales in Canada
Source: https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16784699&guid=4YD-kpJOCv8WJth
SARNIA, ON / July 11, 2023 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK:LLLI), a global innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military, security agencies and some retail customers, has received two new orders for our safe and effective humane animal distraction devices. These animal control product orders were placed by two different Lamperd distributors, both of which are important retail sales companies serving approved customers in Canada. Both orders have been paid in full and shipped to the customers at this time.
Lamperd Less Lethal has developed a broad line of humane products for police, animal control officers and others for protection from aggressive dogs or other animals without resorting to the use of deadly force. These alternatives can allow users to harmlessly drive off bears, moose and other wildlife from areas where they are not wanted.
Lamperd has been supplying these types of products for over 20 years and they have proven to deliver excellent results with high reliability and safety. It should be noted that to comply with Canadian regulations, Lamperd animal control products are not intended for use against humans in any situation. Sales to forestry departments, even though they retail other products to the general public, do not allow distraction rounds to be sold to private individuals.
[PHOTO]
Pictured from left to right above are: 12 Gauge Distraction Round, SOC Rounds and Synthetic Rubber Bullet, 37mm & 40mm WASP Impact Rounds, 37mm & 40mm Aerial Burst Pepper Rounds, Hand Thrown Distraction Device, Pepper Blast Device and a Smoke Distraction Device. Right side photo is 12 Gauge Aerial Burst Pepper Launching System. All these devices are non-toxic and do not disburse any harmful particles.
Distraction Round: This munition fires no projectile, only a loud, 170 dB report that can startle and distract an animal to dissuade it from aggression.
SOC WASP Impact Rounds: A Training SOC Round is available which strikes with half the speed and force of the standard SOC Round. The 37mm and 40mm versions fire a four-pronged, wide impact projectile.
Aerial Burst Pepper Rounds: Can be fired to disburse a potent but harmless pepper compound into the air above or in front of an aggressive animal.
Hand Thrown Distraction Device: Can be tossed in the direction of an aggressive animal to startle and distract with a loud “pop” sound of 80 db. There is no pepper or other irritant in this device and it releases no harmful debris.
Pepper Blast: Traditional pepper sprays are not effective because they are very difficult to aim in a stressful situation. Pepper Blast now offers a better solution which can immediately ward off and drive away an animal.
Smoke Distraction Device for Humane Animal Control Use – Non Toxic: This device will make a popping sound when triggered and will emit white smoke for up to 2 minutes. There is also a distinct hissing sound and an acrid odor which animals find offensive. The smoke cloud produced is non-toxic.
Lamperd Less Lethal provides quick delivery times because we perform all manufacturing in-house and also have well established local raw materials suppliers. Lamperd is able to fulfill orders in much shorter time frames than our competitors who are currently taking many months or even over a year to deliver. Lamperd can manufacture and fulfill most orders in a matter of a few weeks.
See the full Lamperd Less Lethal product line and training services available at http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 12 Gauge, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and a variety of different riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors. For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results. Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli
>>> Ukraine holds disaster drills amid fears Russia could sabotage nuclear power plant
Ukrainian officials have warned Russia may blow up the Zaporizhzhia plant.
ABC News
By Patrick Reevell
July 1, 2023
https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-holds-disaster-drills-amid-fears-russia-sabotage/story?id=100571038
Amid fears Russia might blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine has been holding drills to prepare emergency services with how to deal with a potential radioactive disaster.
ABC News was invited to the drills in the city of Zaporizhzhia this week, about 30 miles from the plant, where firefighters in hazmat gear simulated decontaminating people from radiation during an evacuation.
Emergency workers demonstrated scanning civilians with Geiger counters as they disembarked buses, stripping some civilians and hosing them with water as they lay on stretchers. Firefighters in yellow suits sprayed down vehicles and moved them through a large washer system rigged up between fire trucks.
Ukrainian officials have been sounding increasingly dire warnings around the nuclear plant that Russia has occupied since early in the war. This week, Ukraine's chief of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, claimed Russia had now completed preparation to potentially sabotage the plant if it chooses.
Budanov told The New Statesman magazine that Russian troops had rigged the station's cooling ponds with explosives, that if destroyed could lead to the reactors melting down. He also said Russia had moved explosives-laden vehicles into four of the plant's six power units.
"The situation has never been as severe as now," Budanov said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated the warning again on Saturday at a press conference, saying "there is a serious threat" and that Russia is "technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the station" that could cause a radiation leak. Zelenskyy has called on the international community to take the threat seriously and deter Russia from damaging the plant.
The nuclear plant, the largest in Europe, has been largely shut down for months and is currently not producing any electricity.
Ukraine has said Russia could choose to cause different scales of damage to the station, ranging from a smaller radiation leak to trying to cause the reactors to meltdown.
Russia has denied the accusations and accused Ukraine of preparing to stage an attack at the plant.
Ukrainian officials have warned they fear the Kremlin might blow up the plant in the event Ukraine achieves a major breakthrough with its counteroffensive in the south, trying to halt the advance of Ukrainian troops by contaminating the area. They also worry Russia might trigger an incident at the plant in the hope of freezing the war, by pushing a panicked international community to force Kyiv into premature peace negotiations that would favor the Kremlin.
Ukraine's first deputy energy minister, Yuriy Vlasenko, told reporters at the drills that in the worst-case scenario 138,000 people might need to be evacuated from Zaporizhzhia alone. Roughly another 300,000 might need to be evacuated from four other regions, he said.
Similar exercises were conducted last year, Vlasenko said. In the event of a real threat of large-scale disaster, three decontamination points would be set up and 23 mustering points where people evacuated from the contaminated zone could gather.
The United States has so far not joined Ukraine in the warnings over the plant, with the White House last week saying it was closely monitoring the situation but so far had seen no indication the threat was "imminent".
"I would tell you that we're watching this very closely. We have, as you know, the ability near the plant to monitor radio activity, and we just haven't seen any indication that that threat is imminent, but we're watching it very, very closely," White House National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has sent monitoring teams to the station has said it is aware of the reports Russia has mined the cooling pools, but said it had not observed that during a visit by its director general Rafael Grossi in mid-June.
Ukrainian firefighters who took part in the drill told ABC they believed the risk Russia could sabotage the plant was real, but hoped it still would not do so.
They said their worries had grown since the Kakhovka dam was blown up last month. If Russia was prepared to cause a disaster on that scale, it suggests it might be willing to do the same with the plant, they said.
"They are unpredictable people," one firefighter told ABC News. "We didn't think the dam would be blown up. But it was blown up."
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>>> US 'preparing to evacuate Americans in Taiwan' as China tensions boil over
MSN
6-12-23
Daily Express US
by Adam Chapman, Matthew Dooley
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-preparing-to-evacuate-americans-in-taiwan-as-china-tensions-boil-over/ar-AA1croNO?li=BBnbfcL
Washington is preparing evacuation plans for US citizens living in Taiwan as Sino-American tensions boil over, according to multiple sources.
The planning has reportedly been underway for a minimum of six months, although "it's heated up over the past two months or so," according to a senior US intelligence official speaking on the condition of anonymity as he wasn't authorized to discuss the issue told The Messenger.
He added that a "heightened level of tension" had driven the preparations but said "It's nothing you wouldn't read in the news. Forces building up. China aligning with Russia on Ukraine."
Another source familiar with the matter cited Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a major driver of the planning. They said: "Ukraine drove a relook at the plans."
The plans have not been discussed publically by the US Government but Lt. Col. Martin Meiners is reported to have said when approached: "We do not see a conflict in the Taiwan Strait as imminent or inevitable.
Another source added that the planning had been kept quiet as it was a sensitive subject for Taiwan's Government while one former State Department official said: "Even talking about an [evacuation plan] starts people thinking something may be going on even if it is just prudent planning".
In 2020, under 5,000 Americans lived in Taiwan, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). However, that number is likely higher on a daily basis with tourists and business travelers visiting the island.
Tensions between the US and China have soared in recent months with a series of high-level visits to the island and the United States by both American and Taiwanese politicians.
Relations reached a boiling point earlier this year when a Chinese balloon traversed the US. Washington says it was a spy balloon while Beijing claims it was only used for civilian purposes.
In a saga that saw Joe Biden heavily criticized by his opponents, the balloon was allowed to cross over the continental US before being shot down over the coast of South Carolina.
The incident saw Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancel an official visit to China while Beijing condemned the shooting down of the device.
However, last week, officials said that senior diplomats from China and the US engaged in "candid and productive" discussions in Beijing, agreeing to maintain open lines of communication to avoid spiraling into an armed conflict.
Taiwan is democratically governed, but China sees the island as a rogue province. Taipei says the Taiwanese people are the only ones who can decide the country's fate.
The US maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity surrounding the island and does not comment on whether it would come to the island's defense, although Joe Biden has several times confirmed it would.
Washington does provide the island the means to defend itself with advanced air defense missile systems, fighter jets and other weapons.
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$LLLI News: Lamperd Less Lethal Receives Order and Full Payment for Special Munitions Rounds from New International Customer
SARNIA, ON / May 31, 2023 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK:LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, has received an important police services order with full payment from a new international customer. This order is for a special type of less lethal munition which Lamperd has carefully developed in conjunction with The University of Western Ontario.
One of the reasons this customer selected Lamperd Less Lethal was the quick delivery time which we can provide. Because Lamperd performs all manufacturing in-house and also has well established local raw materials suppliers, we are able to fulfill orders in much shorter time frames than our competitors who are currently taking many months or even over a year to deliver. Lamperd can manufacture and fulfill most orders in a matter of a few weeks.
Lamperd offers a wide range of less lethal munitions for 37mm, 40 mm, 20 gauge and 12 gauge weapons so officers can have the right tool for every job. These options include our proven WASP & SOC Impact rounds as well as Muzzle Blast Pepper, including Aerial Burst, Green Sticky Gel, Door Breacher and lower capacity Training Rounds.
Lamperd’s OC Aerial Burst munitions can travel 100+ ft and cover an area of 200 sq.ft for more effective and safer riot control. These rounds drop no dangerous debris, only a powerful but harmless OC compound to disburse unruly crowds. Lamperd offers Aerial Burst options for multiple types of launching systems including 20 gauge and 12 gauge police shotguns that are in widespread use around the world.
Lamperd Less Lethal also offers a full line of Humane Animal Control Products to protect police, animal control and other officers from aggressive animals without having to resort to deadly force. Too many pets and other animals are needless killed each year but Lamperd has the solution with less lethal munitions that can scare off an aggressive dog or other animal without causing any harm. Every police department and animal control agency should have these options in use.
Lamperd Less Lethal has be best safety record in the global less lethal industry. For over 50 years there have been zero deaths and zero serious injuries resulting from the use of any Lamperd products.
See the full Lamperd Less Lethal product line and training services available at http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 12 Gauge, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and a variety of different riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors. For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results. Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli
>>> Fade to Black in Ukraine
by James Kunstler
May 22, 2023
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/fade-to-black-in-ukraine/
“Following the ouster of Mr. Trump in 2020, this new-new-left had exactly what it had been clamoring for, a liberal Democrat in the White House. Given the sense of impending catastrophe at present, it may be difficult to remember precisely how much sniveling bullshit went into selling Joe Biden.” — Rob Urie
Have you noticed that the president of Ukraine (or, governor of America’s fifty-first state), Mr. Zelensky, has been globe-trotting for weeks: London, Helsinki, Paris, Hiroshima? That’s because this is one of those months when years happen; the world is changing at hyper-speed. He seems to be running scared, a little bit, trying to keep ahead of the changing game. What sounded like a great idea to a certain claque of so-called neo-cons in our country — to use Ukraine as a bear trap — has instead rather suddenly revealed Europe’s and America’s manifold bankruptcies and revolted the whole rest of the world outside of Western Civ. Oh, the wonder and nausea!
Try to imagine Mr. Zelensky’s predicament. Mighty America and redoubtable Europe conned the former comedian to thinking that if he went along with a genius scheme to ruin Russia and knock Vlad Putin off the global gameboard, his sad-sack country would be transformed into something like Ukro-Disneyworld, while he, Mr. Z, would be lionized and made rich beyond his wildest imaginings. His backup was the greatest hegemonic power the world has ever seen. The game was called Let’s You and Him Fight.
The poor schlemiel fell for it. He let NATO (that is, the USA) set-up, equip, and train the largest army in Europe, including battalions of bad-ass, hard-core Ukro-Nazis — who had previously been so useful in the American-sponsored 2014 Maidan “color revolution.” Mr. Z followed the US State Department’s orders to rain down rockets and artillery on Russian-speakers who lived in his own eastern provinces. He formally applied for membership in the NATO club. His country received billions of US dollars without audit oversight, just screaming to be creamed off by Ukraine’s leadership — who, after all, deserved a little something for all these goings-along. What could go wrong?
Thus, Western Civ kicked off Europe’s biggest hot war since the 1940s. So, in February, 2022, Mr. Putin had enough of the monkey business on his “front porch” and sent in a clean-up crew. Game on! The US neo-cons were ready to feed countless Ukrainian troops into a meat grinder that would, theoretically, exhaust the will and resources of the execrable bear and yield countless benefits reinforcing our dominant position in the world. Our hapless NATO “partners” went along with the program, despite being asked to commit economic suicide for the greater good of the alliance (or something like that). Anyway, they didn’t need that filthy Russian nat-gas. They were going “green” (Klaus Schwab said so, didn’t he?)
Meanwhile, the citizens of our country were groomed to perfection by the US Propaganda-Industrial Complex screaming “Russia, Russia, Russia,” at the behest of opinion-leader Hillary Clinton, a wannabe president. The news media demanded crucifixion for her opponent, Mr. Trump, who had idly tossed out the heinous idea that The USA and Russia could cultivate a friendly relationship, seeing as how the bear was no longer flying the red flag. Aye-yi-yi!!! He actually said that!?! The clueless orange boob!
Well, the folks running things in America — that is, the scores of unelected bureaucratic satraps guarding their nests throughhout the Okefenokee inside-the-Beltway, especially the gator-pit known politely as the Intel Community — decided to subject Mr. Trump to a one-man version of the exquisite torment intended for Russia, Russia, Russia: pain, ignominy, and ruin. They’re still at it six years later, since the relentless Mr. Trump will not give up his crusade to take back the White House and defenestrate all those attempting to defenestrate him. His enemies have captured all the levers of legal power, and yet, amazingly, they can come up with nothing but the most rinky-dink charges to railroad him in captured jurisdictions.
This internal political conflict in the USA has driven the populace plumb insane, while it has rendered our institutions rancid and left us subject to a pathocracy hiding behind a laughably fake chief executive. After a year-plus of America’s genius scheme to maintain world dominance, Russia is doing really well, thank you, in constructing a geo-economic framework for trade that will not be subject to the pranks of USA-led Western Civ. Russia is a nation of people who regard themselves as men and women, the toils of gender confusion happily absent. Ditto race hustles. Ditto banking Ponzis.
After two-plus years of “Joe Biden” — well, our country is bypassing the banana republic stage of dissolution and depravity and steaming quickly into a Hieronymus Bosch dystopia of financial, social, psychological and moral ruin. Every official utterance is a lie. Everything’s broken or breaking. And seemingly, on-purpose. The nagging question, of course, is on whose purposes?
And why is Mr. Zelensky flitting from one country to another the past month? Because the game of Let’s You and Him Fight is drawing to a close and Mr. Z may find himself fatally unpopular back on the home-front. He has managed to send upward of a hundred-thousand young Ukrainian men to their deaths in the meat-grinder, and perhaps a million more have hightailed it for other countries. Ukraine will now be a land of mostly women, children, and old folks — with just enough surviving soldiers left looking to hunt down the comedian who turned Ukraine into another one history’s sick jokes.
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>>> The US Air Force has retreated from Taiwan without a shot fired
The Telegraph
by David Axe
May 2023
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-has-retreated-from-taiwan-without-a-shot-fired/ar-AA1aGjM9?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=87f848bd0b664e079fe43e7fd9736f0a&ei=37
The US Air Force is the biggest and most powerful air force in the world: but maybe not for long. The service is struggling through twin crises – one of money, another of belief in itself – that could narrow its aerial advantage.
At best, the USAF might emerge a smaller but still world-leading force. At worst, it might cede its lead to its most dangerous rival, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). It has already made something that looks awfully like a retreat from the Western Pacific, withdrawing squadrons in the face of the growing Chinese menace.
The USAF isn’t the only American armed service that’s shrinking while its Chinese adversary is growing. After wasting billions of dollars on ships that don’t work, the US Navy is contracting even as Xi Jinping’s fleet is expanding.
The Air Force’s problem is similar. A quarter-century ago, the USAF committed to spending much of its $250 billion annual budget on the Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter – a plane which has been beset by cost overruns and reliability problems.
The $400-billion project has eaten the Air Force. The idea, when the F-35 was new, was for the USAF to have nearly 1,800 of the stealthy fighters by this point. Instead, it has fewer than 500.
Every dollar the USAF feeds the F-35 program is a dollar it can’t spend on planes that are affordable and reliable. For two decades, since the F-35 first flew, the Air Force has bought too few new planes. That forced the service to fly its older planes for longer than their designers intended. Those old jets are finally wearing out, and there aren’t enough new ones to fully replace them.
The math has been brutal for the world’s biggest air force, which today operates around 5,200 aircraft of all types. That’s 1,300 more aircraft than the Russian air force has, and 3,200 more than the PLAAF has. The Russian air force is tied up, and losing planes fast, in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But the Chinese air force has all its strength available for a possible attack on Taiwan, and is adding hundreds of new planes every year.
Meanwhile, the USAF is retiring many aircraft and pulling others out of the Western Pacific, increasingly letting the local airpower balance tip towards China. The aircraft the USAF plans to cut completely in just the next few years include the A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jet (aka the “Warthog”) and the F-15C/D Eagle air-superiority fighter, generally seen as the best fighter in the world in the pre-Stealth era. Some 260 Warthogs and 220 Eagles will go to the boneyard. The USAF also plans to lose roughly 100 of its 220 powerful F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bombers, and even 30 of its 180 F-22 Raptor stealth superfighters, currently the last word in fighter technology.
In all, more than 600 fighters could get the axe before 2030. That might not be a problem if the USAF were buying enough new jets to replace them. But projected budgets cover just 300 or so new F-35s and 100 upgraded Boeing-made F-15EX Eagle IIs. The F-22’s replacement, the secretive “Next Generation Air Dominance” jet, won’t join the force until the 2030s.
The USAF fighter fleet could shrink from around 1,900 planes to 1,700 planes in the next few years – a contraction of American air power on a scale that hasn’t occurred in decades. The Chinese air force’s steady growth underscores the risk in this reduction. While the USAF sheds its oldest F-22 Raptors, the PLAAF is acquiring its own J-20 stealth fighter. The J-20 is said to be a true fifth-generation plane the equal of America’s F-35 or even the Raptor. China is building a dozen or more J-20s every year. Some 200 are thought to have been built so far, but these are of differing batches with varying levels of technology and the number actually in front-line service is probably considerably smaller.
The retirement of old jets isn’t the only factor in the USAF’s retreat from the Western Pacific. When the service announced, last year, that it would shutter both F-15C/D squadrons at Kadena airbase in Japan – currently the main American fighter hub for a war over Taiwan – the F-15s’ 40 years of constant flying and worsening airframe fatigue weren’t the only factors.
Kadena lies just 350 miles northeast of Taiwan, and roughly the same distance from the Chinese coast. The sprawling base is within range of hundreds of Chinese non-nuclear ballistic missiles. A study by the California think-tank RAND calculated that just 34 of those missiles could render Kadena unusable. A January war game organized by the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) resulted in the USAF losing 200 fighters in the missile barrage preceding a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
American long-range bombers – including the new B-21 Raider, scheduled for its first flight later this year – could be critical to a successful defense of Taiwan, CSIS found, but short-range fighters were all but irrelevant in all of the scenarios the think-tank gamed out. They never even got a chance to take off as Chinese missiles rained down.
The Air Force’s solution to this dilemma is to remove the permanently-based fighter squadrons from bases near China. Visiting squadrons might stop over at Kadena only briefly before spreading out their jets to smaller outlying airfields, where USAF planners assume they’d be safer from Chinese barrages.
What’s perhaps most galling about this decision is that the Chinese air force weighed the same problem – and came up with a totally different solution. Chinese air bases are vulnerable to American and Taiwanese missiles, just as American airbases are vulnerable to Chinese missiles. But instead of pulling out the hundreds of fighters it has positioned for a war over Taiwan, the PLAAF dug in.
In recent years, the Chinese have built hundreds of reinforced, bunker-like hangars at the airfields closest to Taiwan. These hardened aircraft shelters help protect aircraft from missile attacks. By contrast, the USAF has built just 15 hardened shelters at Kadena.
During a possible war in the Western Pacific, the Chinese air force clearly aims to stand and fight. By contrast, the USAF decided to retreat before the first shot was even fired.
In assuming that fighters no longer matter in a war with China, the Air Force is doubling down on its own failure to build enough new fighters to maintain its overall strength. The organization that should be the biggest advocate for US air power instead has been making the case against air power.
There are practical steps the USAF could take to preserve its air-power advantage, especially against China. The quickest and cheapest is to return permanently-based fighters to Kadena – and spend a few billion dollars building a protective shelter for each plane it plans to stage from the base.
Over the medium term, the solutions get pricier. The USAF should hang on to every viable fighter it has for as long as it can. Maybe those 40-year-old F-15C/Ds are ready to retire. But not everyone agrees that the oldest F-22s should face the axe. And the plan to cull half the workhorse F-15E Strike Eagle fleet has been met with amazement.
Sure, these older planes cost more to upgrade and maintain than factory-fresh jets do. But newly-made jets cost too much up front for the Air Force to buy them in the numbers it needs.
How is grounding hundreds of fighters in order to afford a few pricey new ones justifiable if it means the United States surrendering the sky to China?
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$LLLI News: Lamperd Less Lethal is Prepared to Deliver Advanced Riot Shields in a Range of Sizes and Types with Quickest Order Fulfillment Thanks to In-House Production
Interlocking Riot Shields and Specialized Versions Available for Every Application
In-House Production and Local Material Sources for Quick Delivery Times
Long Established Reputation for the Highest Quality and Versatile Designs
SARNIA, ON / ACCESSWIRE / May 2, 2023 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK:LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, is fully prepared to meet the rising need for riot shields in the United States, Canada and other countries around the world. With protests, demonstrations, riots and other public order crisis at an escalating level today, Lamperd is ready with the most advanced, extensive and versatile line of riot shields for every situation. Lamperd riot shields are currently serving all over the globe with police, military and correctional facility customers.
Lamperd Less Lethal can deliver completed orders for riot shields on a very timely basis as we perform all manufacturing in-house at our fully equipped and well staffed plant in Sarnia, Ontario with no outsourcing needed. Lamperd also has established very dependable local sources for all raw materials needed. Therefore, we can offer the quickest order fulfillment of any riot shield provider, generally in a matter of weeks as opposed to many months or even over a year, as is the case with other suppliers at this time. Lamperd manufacturers the entire shield, including our own handles, with the option of custom handles for specialized requirements.
The Lamperd Less Lethal riot shield line offers many different types and sizes as can be reviewed on our company website here: https://lamperdlesslethal.com/product-category/police-riot-shields-protective-gear/. Sizes are available from 24 inch (610mm) up to 71 inch (1800mm) with 4.5mm or 3mm thickness and optional gun ports for less lethal weapons. Our advanced interlocking feature can allow multiple Lamperd riot shields to be quicky linked together to form a strong, interlocking barrier. Lamperd Interlocking Riot Shields are currently being used by many police agencies throughout the United States. Curved, Round and Non-Interlocking types are also available for different applications. Whatever law enforcement needs, Lamperd is able to deliver it, in the highest manufacturing quality and any size quantity, large or small.
The Lamperd Capture Shield is available in sizes up to 6 foot tall (to our knowledge, the longest on the market). Our Capture Shield allows corrections officers to pin an unruly prisoner against a wall to safely regain control. Strong, clear Lexan material is used for lightweight ease of handling and maneuverability. The Lamperd Capture Shield is currently in use at correctional facilities throughout Canada. For more detailed information, photos and a demonstration video visit the Lamperd website here: https://lamperdlesslethal.com/product/lamperd-capture-shield/
Lamperd Extraction Shields are another available option, ideally sized and shaped to help prevent broken ribs and other common injuries or bodily fluid contamination while transferring persons to and from police cars, ambulances or other tight spaces. The Lamperd Extraction Shield is made of strong, clear polycarbonate to allow clear vision and is equipped with padded handles. Especially important is the arm handle which will flexibly move in and out in response to pressure to help prevent broken ribs as can happen with other rigid handle shields. See and learn more on the Lamperd website here: https://lamperdlesslethal.com/product/extraction-shield/.
Training models of the Lamperd Capture Shields and our Extraction Shields are also available. These special training versions are designed to allow officers to more safely practice their techniques with a greater degree of safety.
Barry Lamperd, CEO of Lamperd Less Lethal, commented, "We are very proud of our long track record for supplying vital riot shields in many different types and sizes to law enforcement and military units all over the world. Our design teams have worked in conjunction with the University of Western Ontario and other highly accredited institutions as well as with feedback from the officers we serve to develop and produce riot shields with the exact features that are needed to make them the most effective and useful in real world functions. At this time when riot shield demand is rising to a peak and availability from other sources is often limited or facing extended order fulfillment times, we want to make sure that everyone knows Lampred Less Lethal is ready and able to meet all riot shield needs with the quickest delivery times in the industry. We also invite all law enforcement and other government agency representatives to visit our facility to see our manufacturing operation and to do hands-on evaluation of our products at any time."
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 12 Gauge, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and a variety of different riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results. Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli
SOURCE: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
View source version on accesswire.com:
https://www.accesswire.com/752283/Lamperd-Less-Lethal-is-Prepared-to-Deliver-Advanced-Riot-Shields-in-a-Range-of-Sizes-and-Types-with-Quickest-Order-Fulfillment-Thanks-to-In-House-Production
>>> Unprepared for long war, US Army under gun to make more ammo
Associated Press
by MARC LEVY
April 23, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unprepared-long-war-us-army-050355599.html
SCRANTON, Pa. (AP) — One of the most important munitions of the Ukraine war comes from a historic factory in this city built by coal barons, where tons of steel rods are brought in by train to be forged into the artillery shells Kyiv can’t get enough of — and that the U.S. can’t produce fast enough.
The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is at the vanguard of a multibillion-dollar Pentagon plan to modernize and accelerate its production of ammunition and equipment not only to support Ukraine, but to be ready for a potential conflict with China.
But it is one of just two sites in the U.S. that make the steel bodies for the critical 155 mm howitzer rounds that the U.S. is rushing to Ukraine to help in its grinding fight to repel the Russian invasion in the largest-scale war in Europe since World War II.
The invasion of Ukraine revealed that the U.S. stockpile of 155 mm shells and those of European allies were unprepared to support a major and ongoing conventional land war, sending them scrambling to bolster production. The dwindling supply has alarmed U.S. military planners, and the Army now plans to spend billions on munitions plants around the country in what it calls its most significant transformation in 40 years.
It may not be easy to adapt: practically every square foot of the Scranton plant's red brick factory buildings — first constructed more than a century ago as a locomotive repair depot — is in use as the Army clears space, expands production to private factories and assembles new supply chains.
There are some things that Army and plant officials in Scranton won’t reveal, including where they get the steel for the shells and exactly how many more rounds this factory can produce.
“That’s what Russia wants to know,” said Justine Barati of the U.S. Army’s Joint Munitions Command.
So far, the U.S. has provided more than $35 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
The 155 mm shell is one of the most often-requested and supplied items, which also include air defense systems, long-range missiles and tanks.
The rounds, used in howitzer systems, are critical to Ukraine’s fight because they allow the Ukrainians to hit Russian targets up to 20 miles (32 kilometers) away with a highly explosive munition.
“Unfortunately, we understand that the production is very limited and it’s been more than a year of war,” Ukraine parliamentary member Oleksandra Ustinova said at a German Marshall Fund media roundtable in Washington on Monday. “But unfortunately we are very dependent on 155.”
The Army is spending about $1.5 billion to ramp up production of 155 mm rounds from 14,000 a month before Russia invaded Ukraine to over 85,000 a month by 2028, U.S. Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo told a symposium last month.
Already, the U.S. military has given Ukraine more than 1.5 million rounds of 155 mm ammunition, according to Army figures.
But even with higher near-term production rates, the U.S. cannot replenish its stockpile or catch up to the usage pace in Ukraine, where officials estimate that the Ukrainian military is firing 6,000 to 8,000 shells per day. In other words, two days' worth of shells fired by Ukraine equates to the United States' monthly pre-war production figure.
“This could become a crisis. With the front line now mostly stationary, artillery has become the most important combat arm,” said a January report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Currently, the metal bodies for the 155 mm shells are made at the Army's Scranton plant, operated by General Dynamics, and at a General Dynamics-owned plant in nearby Wilkes-Barre, officials say.
Together, the plants are under contract for 24,000 shells per month, with an additional $217 million Army task order to further boost production, although officials won't say how many more 155 mm shells are sought by the task order.
The Russians are firing 40,000 shells per day, said Ustinova, who serves on Ukraine's wartime oversight committee.
“So we’re doing five times less than they do and trying to keep it up. But if we don’t start the production lines, if you don’t warm it up, it is going to be a huge problem,” Ustinova said.
The obstacles the U.S. faces in ramping up production can be seen at the Scranton plant.
The factory — built for the Delaware, Lackawanna and Western Railroad just after 1900, when the city was a rising coal and railroad powerhouse — has produced large-caliber ammunition for the military going back to the Korean War.
But the buildings are on the National Historic Registry of Historic Places, limiting how the Army can alter the structures.
Inside, the floor is crowded with piles of shells, defunct equipment and production lines where robotic arms, saws, presses and other machines cut, heat, forge, temper, pressure test, wash and paint the shells.
The plant is in the midst of $120 million in modernization plans and the Army hopes to open a new production line there by 2025.
Still, clearing space for it has been a complicated task while the military adds newer machinery to make existing lines more efficient.
“There’s a lot going on,” said Richard Hansen, the Army commander’s representative at the plant.
Meanwhile, the Army is expanding supply chains for parts — metal shells, explosive fill, charges that shoot the shell and fuses — and buying the massive machines that do the work.
The Army has new contracts with plants in Texas and Canada to make 155 mm shells, said Douglas Bush, an assistant Army secretary and its chief weapons buyer. The U.S. is also looking overseas to allies to expand production, Bush said.
Once the shells are finished in Scranton, they are shipped to the Iowa Army Ammunition Plant, where they are packed with explosives, fitted with fuses and packaged for final delivery.
The Scranton plant is ill-suited for that task: an accident with an explosive could be devastating.
“If we had a mishap here,” Hansen said, “we take half of the city with us.”
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>>> CACI Named a Fortune World’s Most Admired Company for 6th Consecutive Year
Accesswire
CACI
March 2, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caci-named-fortune-world-most-144500658.html
RESTON, VA / ACCESSWIRE / March 2, 2023 / CACI International Inc (NYSE:CACI) announced that Fortune magazine has recognized it as one of the World's Most Admired Companies for 2023 commemorating CACI's 6th consecutive year on the list and its 12th appearance since the list's inception. CACI ranked 8th among Information Technology Services companies worldwide.
CACI received top rankings in Fortune's survey criteria for the quality of its technology and expertise offerings and management. CACI was also recognized for its long-term investment value. CACI was chosen from among approximately 1,500 global companies considered by Fortune.
"CACI is at the forefront of delivering next-generation technology and expertise that will help secure our nation for years to come. Our standing among Fortune's World's Most Admired Companies for a 6th consecutive year is the result of our strong commitment to hiring and retaining industry-leading talent, delivering innovation to our customers, and providing value to our shareholders," said John Mengucci, CACI President and Chief Executive Officer. "We thank our employees for their dedication and are extremely proud of the complex national security challenges we address each and every day."
Fortune, in partnership with the global management consulting firm Korn Ferry, surveyed approximately 4,000 corporate executives and directors to compile the Most Admired rankings. A company must score in the top half of its industry group to be included on the list.
As a leading national security company, CACI continues to expand its presence globally with meaningful career opportunities offering world class expertise and technology offerings for its government customers. Recently, CACI was also named a Top Workplace USA company for its leadership, culture, and benefits.
ABOUT CACI
CACI's approximately 22,000 talented employees are vigilant in providing the unique expertise and distinctive technology that address our customers' greatest enterprise and mission challenges. Our culture of good character, innovation, and excellence drives our success and earns us recognition as a Fortune World's Most Admired Company. As a member of the Fortune 1000 Largest Companies, the Russell 1000 Index, and the S&P MidCap 400 Index, we consistently deliver strong shareholder value. Visit us at www.caci.com.
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>>> U.S. Sends Attack Submarine to Middle East as Tensions Rise Between Iran and Israel
Officials said the move was meant as a deterrent against Iran and to maintain the stability of one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
New York Times
By Farnaz Fassihi, Ronen Bergman and Eric Schmitt
April 8, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/world/middleeast/us-submarine-middle-east-iran.html
The United States Navy said on Saturday that it had deployed a guided missile submarine to the Middle East, a day after the U.S. 5th Fleet and its partners released a warning advising all ships to proceed with caution following escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, according to a U.S. Navy spokesman.
U.S. military and Israeli intelligence agencies said that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force was preparing a drone attack against Israeli-owned civilian merchant vessels sailing in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, according to two Western senior intelligence officials with knowledge of the threats who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
An Iranian political strategist close to the Guards said Iran was considering attacks on Israeli-owned ships in the region as one means of retaliating against Israeli airstrikes in Syria that killed two members of the Guards in March.
U.S. officials said the deployment of the submarine, the U.S.S. Florida, was meant to deter Iran and maintain the stability of one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, in which millions of dollars in commercial goods, oil and gas are transported every day.
The Florida, which has the capacity to carry 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, entered the region on Thursday and began transiting the Suez Canal on Friday, according to a U.S. Navy spokesman.
“Recent events, including the strikes in Syria and public threats made by Iran against merchant vessels, prompted us to remind regional mariners to remain vigilant,” said Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain.
The public statement announcing the location and presence of the submarine was highly unusual because the U.S. military does not typically acknowledge the presence of its submarines anywhere, unlike ships and planes, which can be tracked.
In another sign of tensions rising in the region, the Pentagon last week announced it was extending the tour of the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush in the eastern Mediterranean and speeding up the deployment of Air Force A-10 attack planes to a base in the Middle East.
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a yearslong shadow war that has extended to land, air, cyber and sea. They have been targeting one another’s ships in open waters since March 2021.
Israel’s minister of defense, Yoav Gallant, spoke on Saturday with his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, according to a spokeswoman for Israel’s Ministry of Defense.
In a statement on Saturday, the ministry called Iran “the greatest destabilizing force in the region.”
“As Israel faces a range of attacks on all fronts,” the statement added, “our defense establishment is prepared and we will not tolerate any threat to our citizens and troops.”
Israel intensified its airstrikes on Iran-affiliated targets in Syria in March, killing two Iranian Guards members, including the commander of a cyberunit. Iran declared the two men martyrs and held a public funeral procession for them and senior military commanders vowed to take revenge against Israel.
“The Zionist regime will undoubtedly receive a response for this crime,” the Guards said in a statement announcing the men’s deaths. The spokesman of Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, said on Sunday that Iran reserves the right to respond to the killing of its troops by Israel “at the right time and the right place.”
By Wednesday, the United Kingdom Marine Trade Operation, which monitors maritime security, had issued an “increased threat” warning to all vessels transiting the northern Indian Ocean because it had detected unusual activity.
By Thursday, the U.S. 5th Fleet had warned Israel’s defense establishment about an imminent threat from Iran against Israeli ships and said that the Guards were in a position to strike, according to two Western intelligence officials.
Israeli shipping companies were warned by the U.S. 5th Fleet on Thursday, according to a senior employee of an Israeli shipping company who did not want to be named because he was not authorized to speak on the record. Past Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, he said, had been carried out against ships that previously belonged to Israelis, or that were only partly owned by Israelis, in what appeared to be cases of misidentification.
Israeli ships were advised to turn off their transponders, sail as close as possible to the coast of Oman and away from the Iranian coast, and to routinely report their whereabouts and any suspicious activity.
Tensions in the Middle East have flared the past few weeks on multiple fronts, including strikes and counterstrikes in Syria and clashes between the Israeli military and Palestinian militias with fighters in Lebanon.
Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon and in Gaza on Friday in response to an unusually heavy rocket barrage from Lebanon that the Israeli military blamed on a branch of the Gaza-based Palestinian militia Hamas. The rocket attacks came in response to clashes between Arab worshipers and the Israeli police at the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem the day before.
A senior U.S. military official said the deployment of the submarine to the region was significant because it marked the first time in 19 months that U.S. Central Command, which oversees the Middle East and some nearby regions, has taken operational control of a U.S. attack submarine. Usually, submarines transit the Middle East region, but the Navy’s public statement suggested this one would remain in the area for a while.
On Saturday, there was no sign of tensions abating. The Israeli military said that three rockets were launched from southern Syria toward the Golan Heights and that one landed in Israeli territory near the town of Meitsar. One fell inside Syria, the military said.
The rocket attacks targeting Israel are typically from militia forces that are part of a so-called axis of resistance that is supported, armed and funded by Iran to sustain a unified regional fight against Israel.
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>>> Amid tensions with Iran, U.S. deploys guided-missile submarine to Middle East
PBS
Apr 8, 2023
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-tensions-with-iran-u-s-deploys-guided-missile-submarine-to-middle-east
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. Navy has deployed a guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk missiles to the Middle East, a spokesman said Saturday, in what appeared to be a show of force toward Iran following recent tensions.
The Navy rarely acknowledges the location or deployment of submarines. Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the 5th Fleet based in the Gulf nation of Bahrain, declined to comment on the submarine’s mission or what had prompted the deployment.
He said the nuclear-powered submarine, based out of Kings Bay, Georgia, passed through the Suez Canal on Friday. “It is capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles and is deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins said.
The 5th Fleet patrols the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20 percent of all oil transits. Its region includes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen and the Red Sea stretching up to the Suez Canal, the Egyptian waterway linking the Mideast to the Mediterranean Sea.
The U.S., the U.K. and Israel have accused Iran of targeting oil tankers and commercial ships in recent years, allegations denied by Tehran. The U.S. Navy has also reported a series of tense encounters at sea with Iranian forces that it said were being recklessly aggressive.
Last month, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iran-backed forces in Syria after a rocket attack killed a U.S. contractor and wounded seven other Americans in that country’s northeast.
Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from ships or submarines can hit targets up to 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles away). They were famously employed during the opening hours of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and in response to a Syrian chemical weapons attack in 2018.
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared since then-President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 agreement with world powers that provided sanctions relief in return for Iran curbing its nuclear activities and placing them under enhanced surveillance.
The Biden administration’s efforts to restore the agreement hit a wall last year. The tensions have worsened as Iran has supplied attack drones to Russian forces in Ukraine and as Israel and Iran have escalated their yearslong shadow war in the Middle East.
In addition to drawing closer to Moscow, Tehran has sought improved relations with China, which brokered an agreement last month to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
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>>> 12 Best Defense Stocks To Buy Now
Insider Monkey
by Omer Farooq
March 22, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-best-defense-stocks-buy-121829919.html
In this article, we will discuss the 12 best defense stocks to buy now. If you want to explore similar stocks, you can also take a look at 5 Best Defense Stocks To Buy Now.
A Chinese spy balloon along with 3 other unidentified high-altitude objects have been shot down by the U.S. so far. On March 14, a U.S. drone was shot down by a Russian fighter jet over the black sea. The Russian Su-27 damaged the propellor of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, after flying in close proximity over it, and forced it down. Meanwhile, the Ukraine war is still ongoing and there is still no end in sight, rather there is a risk of the war escalating.
Defense Analyst: "There's A Pretty Good Long-Term Setup"
On February 13 Cowen's defense and aerospace analyst, Roman Schweizer appeared in an interview on CNBC and to discuss the geopolitical situation and his view on the defense sector and defense stocks. "This is a very peculiar period in time", said Schweizer as he talked about the recent airborne objects shot down in North America. Schweizer thinks that unidentified objects flying at such high altitude can pose risk to commercial air travel. Here are some comments from Roman Schweizer about the U.S. defense budget, potential budget cuts, and defense stocks:
"I'd say that the group (defense stocks) has underperformed, since the GOP (Republicans) kinda came out with wanting those what would be potentially 10% spending cuts. Really, when you look at the backlog in spending, 2 years ago the budget was up 7%, last year up 10%. We estimate there's about $37 billion in funds for Ukraine that haven't been put on contract for some of the large defense primes. So the pump is primed and as soon as we get into some of the budgetary details, if any of that overhang lifts, it certainly is gonna bode well for the companies."
Roman Schweizer is positive on the defense sector and sees it driving outperformance. Schweizer thinks the consensus is that the Ukraine war is a "multi-year conflict" and defense spending is going up in not just the U.S., but also in Japan and Europe. Schweizer also noted that the supply-chain issues and labor shortages due to COVID-19 are also fading away and the defense sector is "starting to operate better". Finally, Roman Schweizer said that he thinks "there's a pretty good long-term setup" for defense stocks.
As the Ukraine war enters its second year, geopolitical risk is rising and defense spending is going up with it. On March 13, the U.S. Department of Defense released the proposed defense budget for fiscal 2024. The Biden-Harris Administration has submitted a request to Congress to increase the defense budget for fiscal 2024 to $842 billion, up $26 billion from fiscal 2023.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the outlook for the defense sector is starting to look attractive. As of March 21, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS:ITA) has gained 1.55% year to date, and has gone up by 16.65% over the past 6 months. Some of the best defense stocks to buy now according to analysts and hedge funds include Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC), Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), and The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA).
Our Methodology
We screened for companies operating in the defense sector and picked the 30 largest companies operating in the space. We then sourced the hedge fund sentiment for these companies from Insider Monkey's proprietary database of over 900 elite money managers. We narrowed down our selection to stocks that were the most widely-held by hedge funds. We have ranked these stocks in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them.
12 Best Defense Stocks To Buy Now
12. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 22
On February 21, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW) posted strong earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. The company generated a revenue of $757.67 million, up 13.63% year over year and ahead of market estimates by $5.44 million. The company reported an EPS of $2.92 and outperformed EPS expectations by $0.01.
This February, Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli raised his price target on Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW) to $190 from $183 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares.
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW) was held by 22 hedge funds at the end of Q4 2022. These funds held positions worth $233.5 million in the company, up from $174.4 million in the previous quarter when 18 hedge funds held stakes in the company. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
As of December 31, Select Equity Group is the top shareholder in Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW) and has disclosed a stake worth $99.2 million.
In addition to Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW), other top defense stocks that are popular among elite hedge funds include Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC), Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), and The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA).
11. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 34
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) is a leading global manufacturer of commercial aerostructures. The company operates through three divisions: Commercial, Defense & Space, and Aftermarket. As of March 21, the stock has gained 27.91% over the past 6 months.
On February 13, Barclays analyst Davis Strauss raised his price target on Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) to $50 from $42 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares. The stock is one of the best defense stocks to buy now according to hedge funds and analysts.
At the end of Q4 2022, 34 hedge funds were long Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) and disclosed stakes worth $280.5 million in the company. Of those, Marshall Wace LLP was the leading investor in the company and disclosed a position worth $67 million.
10. Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 35
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) is an American manufacturer of jet engine components, fasteners and titanium structures for aerospace applications. The stock is placed tenth among the best defense stocks to buy now. On February 14, the company released earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) reported an EPS of $0.38 and generated a revenue of $1.51 billion, up 17.74% year over year and ahead of Wall Street consensus by $44.12 million.
This February, Argus raised its price target on Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) to $49 from $43 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) was spotted on 35 investors' portfolios at the end of Q4 2022. These funds disclosed collective stakes worth $2.94 billion in the company, up from $2.67 billion in the preceding quarter with 46 positions. As of December 31, Elliott Management is the most prominent shareholder in Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) and has disclosed a position worth $1.36 billion.
9. Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 36
On February 2, Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share. The dividend is payable on April 1 to stockholders of record on March 10. As of March 21, the stock is offering a forward dividend yield of 0.12%.
As of December 6, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag has an Overweight rating and a $84 price target on Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT). The stock has gained 12.49% over the past 6 months, as of March 21, and is trading at a PE multiple of 17x.
At the close of the fourth quarter of 2022, 36 hedge funds were eager on Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) and held collective positions worth $819.5 million in the company. This is compared to 28 hedge funds in the previous quarter with stakes worth $626.8 million. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
As of December 31, AQR Capital Management is the largest stockholder in Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) and has a stake worth $133 million.
8. L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LHX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 45
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, 45 hedge funds were bullish on L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LHX) and disclosed stakes worth $1.28 billion in the company. This is compared to 39 positions in the preceding quarter with stakes worth $680.2 million. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
On January 30, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag updated her price target on L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LHX) to $264 from $278 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares. The stock is placed eighth on our list of the best defense stocks to buy now according to analysts and hedge funds.
On February 24, L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LHX) raised its quarterly dividend to $1.14 per share, up 1.8% from its prior dividend of $1.12. The dividend is payable on March 24 to investors or record on March 10. As of March 21, the stock is offering a forward dividend yield of 2.31%
As of December 31, Diamond Hill Capital is the leading shareholder in L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LHX) and has a position worth $233.8 million.
7. General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 46
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) is one of the best defense stocks to buy now. On March 9, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.32 per common share, up 4.8% from its prior dividend of $1.26. The divided is payable on May 12 to stockholders of record on April 13. As of March 21, General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) is offering a forward dividend yield of 2.42% and is trading at a PE multiple of 18x.
This January, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag raised her price target on General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) to $248 from $243 and maintained an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) was a part of 46 investors' portfolios at the end of Q4 2022. These funds held collective positions worth $8.22 billion in the company, up from $7.10 billion in the preceding quarter with 35 positions. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
As of December 31, Longview Asset Management is the top investor in General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) and has a stake worth $7 billion.
6. HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 48
Wall Street is bullish on HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI). This March, Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli raised his price target on HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI) to $190 from $169 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. As of March 21, the stock has returned 12.78% to investors over the past 6 months.
At the end of Q4 2022, HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI) was held by 48 hedge funds. These funds disclosed positions worth $975.7 million in the company, up from $714.6 million in the previous quarter when 42 hedge funds held stakes in the company. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
As of December 31, Citadel Investment Group is the largest investor in HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI) and holds a stake worth $128.5 million.
Other defense stocks that Wall Street analysts are positive on include Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC), Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), and The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA).
5. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 49
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, 49 hedge funds were long Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and held stakes worth $1.53 billion in the company. This is compared to 46 positions in the preceding quarter with stakes worth $1.05 billion. As of December 31, GQG Partners is the leading shareholder in the company and has a stake worth $428 million.
On January 31, Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers raised his price target on Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) to $470 from $460 and maintained an Equal Weight rating on the shares. As of March 21, the stock is trading at a PE multiple of 14x and is offering a forward dividend yield of 1.54%. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) is placed fifth among the best defense stocks to buy now.
Here is what LRT Capital had to say about Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) in its October 2022 investor letter:
“Based in Virginia, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) is one of the world’s largest defense contractors with annual revenue more than $30 billion. The company operates in a cozy oligopoly, that after decades of consolidation the US defense market is now controlled by five large companies: The Boeing Company (BA), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), and Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX).
Industry barriers to entry are immense, government procurement cycles are extremely long, and the consolidated industry structure reflects this. This industry structure has allowed Northrop to earn stable mid-teens returns on invested capital (ROIC) and grow earnings per share at a rate of over 13% per year in the past decade, despite a topline that has grown only in-line with inflation. Even after the recent run-up in the stock price, it trades at approximate 15x, next year’s earnings estimates, far below the S&P 500 index, despite being an above average company. While nominally, there are five major defense contractors, the true industry concentration is even higher because not all companies compete in all possible business segments. General Dynamics’ division submarine division, Electric Boat, is the sole supplier of nuclear power submarines in the United States. Lockheed Martin is the sole supplier of the F-35 and F-22. Northrop was the sole bidder on the contract to develop the next generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles; and so on…”
4. Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51
Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) has gained 17.45% over the past 6 months, as of March 21, and is offering a forward dividend yield of 2.26%. The stock is one of the best defense stocks to buy now according to analysts and hedge funds. This January, Citi analyst Jason Gursky raised his price target on Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) to $106 from $104 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares.
At the close of Q4 2022, Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) was spotted on 51 hedge funds’ portfolios. These funds held positions worth $1.81 billion in the company, up from $1.61 million in the preceding quarter when 55 hedge funds held stakes in the company.
As of December 31, Balyasny Asset Management is the leading shareholder in Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) and has a stake worth $229.9 million.
Here is what Carillon Tower had to say about Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) in its Q3 2022 investor letter:
“Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE:RTX) announced strong results led by strength in its commercial segment, but weakness in its defense business led to investor consternation. Management guided to a recovery in this segment, citing both transitory supply chain issues and continued strong demand.”
3. Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 53
Analysts see promising upside to Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT). This January, DZ Bank analyst Robert Czerwensky upgraded Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) to Buy from Hold and reiterated his price target of $523 on the stock.
Over the past 6 months Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) has returned 12.48% to investors, as of March 21, and the stock is offering a forward dividend yield of 2.52%. Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) is placed third on our list of the best defense stocks to buy now.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) was spotted on 53 hedge funds’ portfolios at the close of Q4 2022. These funds held collective positions worth $2.13 billion in the company, up from $1.69 billion in the preceding quarter with 53 positions. As of December 31, GQG Partners is the most prominent stockholder in Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) and holds a stake worth $559.9 million.
Here is what Vltava Fund had to say about Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) in its Q3 2022 investor letter:
“LMT is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence companies. The war in Ukraine has reminded investors and the wider public just how important these companies are. The aerospace and defence industry in the USA is an established oligopoly. This means that a few large firms play a dominant role. While collectively they comprise an oligopoly, individually they often have monopoly positions in particular narrower segments. Their main counterparty is the US government, a key customer in what is known as a monopsonist position. This is a rather unusual situation, but one that is very advantageous for companies such as LMT.
LMT has a strong and long-term sustainable competitive advantage ensuing from the fact that its products are developed and manufactured at an extremely high level of technology and complexity, its development and contract cycles are measured in decades, and the costs for the government to switch to alternative suppliers are high. Moreover, part of the production is classified as secret, which further takes the wind out of the sails of potential competitors. This results in a very high return on capital and admittedly a slowly but steadily growing business.
In most NATO countries, which are LMT’s customers, defence outlays are based upon the size of GDP. This is currently growing very fast in nominal terms due to inflation in most countries. A number of countries have also announced significant increases in defence budgets, whether it be Germany, which aims to get to the NATO-agreed 2% of GDP, or Poland, which wants to spend more than twice as much on defence…”
2. The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 53
53 hedge funds disclosed having stakes in The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) at the end of Q4 2022. The total value of these stakes amounted to $1.66 billion, up from $691.7 million in the previous quarter with 42 positions. The hedge fund sentiment for The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is positive and the stock is one of the best defense stocks to buy now.
As of March 21, shares of The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) have soared 47.57% over the past 6 months. Wall Street likes the stock. This March, Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino reiterated a Positive rating and his $245 price target on The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA).
As of December 31, Adage Capital Management is the largest shareholder in The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and has a stake worth $250 million.
Here is what Jackson Square Partners had to say about The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) in its Q3 2022 investor letter:
“For The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)–in short, we believe the worst of Boeing’s idiosyncratic issues are behind it, the airframe duopoly remains as protected as ever, and at current prices (where we’ve been adding), the stock is trading around ~6x FCF on 2025E. Current airframe production is running materially below expected travel demand over the next 5-10 years, creating a structural supply/demand imbalance that we believe will drive a decade of strong growth in civil aerospace from here. In our 2Q’22 correspondence, we described the attributes of our ideal growth ballast and said we hoped to convert another in the coming months – we believe Boeing checks all those boxes.”
1. TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 71
On February 7, TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) announced strong earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2023. The company reported an EPS of $4.58 and outperformed EPS estimates by $0.28. The company generated a revenue of $1.40 billion, up 17% year over year and ahead of Wall Street consensus by $19.04 million. As of March 21, TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) has returned 29.16% to investors over the past 6 months.
On February 28, BofA analyst Ronald Epstein raised his price target on TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) to $890 from $770 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) tops our list of the best defense stocks to buy now according to analysts and hedge funds.
At the close of the fourth quarter of 2022, 71 hedge funds were bullish on TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) and disclosed stakes worth $5.93 billion in the company. This is compared to 63 hedge funds in the previous quarter with stakes worth $4.95 billion. The hedge fund sentiment for the stock is positive.
As of December 31, Stockbridge Partners is the top stockholder in TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) and has disclosed a position worth $1 billion.
Here is what Vulcan Value Partners had to say about TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) in its Q4 2022 investor letter:
“TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG) is an aerospace company making original equipment manufacturer and aftermarket parts for commercial and military aircraft. Approximately 90% of its net sales are from proprietary parts. TransDigm is the sole source provider for parts representing approximately 80% of its revenues. The company grew its EBITDA just over 20% in fiscal 2022 as air travel recovered from the COVID-19 downturn. We believe that the company will have another strong year in fiscal 2023.”
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>>> In race to arm Ukraine, U.S. faces cracks in its manufacturing might
by Missy Ryan
The Washington Post
March 9, 2023
https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-arm-ukraine-u-faces-203940262.html
SCRANTON, Pa. - A sharp hissing sound fills the factory as red-hot artillery shells are plunged into scalding oil.
Richard Hansen, a Navy veteran who oversees this government-owned munitions facility, explains how the 1,500-degree liquid locks in place chemical properties that ensure when the shells are fired - perhaps on a battlefield in Ukraine - they detonate in the deadly manner intended.
"That's what we do," Hansen said. "We build things to kill people."
The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, one of a network of facilities involved in producing the U.S. Army's 155-mm artillery round, is ground zero for the Biden administration's scramble to accelerate the supply of weapons that Ukraine needs if its military is to prevail in the war with Russia.
The Pentagon's plan for scaling up production of the shells over the next two years marks a breakthrough in the effort to quench Ukraine's thirst for weapons. But the conflict has laid bare deep-seated problems that the United States must surmount to effectively manufacture the arms required not just to aid its allies but also for America's self-defense should conflict erupt with Russia, China or another major power.
Despite boasting the world's largest military budget - more than $800 billion a year - and its most sophisticated defense industry, the United States has long struggled to efficiently develop and produce the weapons that have enabled U.S. forces to outpace their peers technologically. Those challenges take on new importance as conventional conflict returns to Europe and Washington contemplates the possibility of its own great-power fight.
Even as public support for the vast sums of aid being given to Ukraine grows softer and more divisive, the conflict has sparked a broader conversation about the need to shatter what military leaders describe as the "brittleness" of the U.S. defense industry and devise new means to quickly scale up output of weapons at moments of crisis. Some observers are worried the Pentagon is not doing enough to replenish the billions of dollars in armaments that have left American stocks.
Research conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows the current output of American factories may be insufficient to prevent the depletion of stockpiles of key items the United States is providing Ukraine. Even at accelerated production rates, it is likely to take at least five years to recover the inventory of Javelin antitank missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles and other in-demand items.
Earlier research done by the Washington think tank illustrates a more pervasive problem: The slow pace of U.S. production means it would take as long as 15 years at peacetime production levels, and more than eight years at a wartime tempo, to replace the stocks of major weapons systems such as guided missiles, piloted aircraft and armed drones if they were destroyed in battle or donated to allies.
"It is a wake-up call," Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview, referring to the production problems the war has exposed. "We have to have an industrial base that can respond very quickly."
A year into the Ukraine fight, American military aid has reached a staggering $30 billion, funding everything from night-vision goggles to Abrams tanks. Much of the weaponry was drawn from Pentagon stocks. Other systems must be produced in U.S. factories.
U.S. and NATO officials have touted the powerful effect of foreign arms on the battlefield, where they have enabled Ukrainian troops to hold Kremlin forces at bay and, in places like the southern city of Kherson, reverse Russian gains. But the armament effort also has rattled officials in the United States and Europe, depleting the military stockpiles of donor nations and revealing the gaps in their productive power.
As the front lines have hardened during the frigid winter months, the ground war has become a bloody, artillery-heavy fight, with Ukrainian forces firing an average of 7,700 artillery shells a day, according to the Ukrainian military, greatly outpacing the U.S. prewar production rate of 14,000 155-mm rounds a month. In the first eight months after Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion, Ukrainian forces burned through 13 years worth of Stinger antiaircraft missiles and five years of Javelin missiles, according to Raytheon, which produces both weapons.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has predicted the munitions squeeze may require a further boost in Pentagon spending, potentially ending the era in which ammunition functioned as a military "bill payer," a part of the defense budget from which officials can trim to fund more expensive items like tanks or planes.
"What the Ukraine conflict showed is that, frankly, our defense industrial base was not at the level that we needed it to be to generate munitions," Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, told lawmakers last week, pointing to the effort to accelerate output of artillery shells, guided rockets and other items. "Those are going to matter a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, because even if the conflict in Ukraine dies down, and nobody can predict whether that will happen, Ukraine is going to need a military that can defend the territory it has clawed back," he said.
The problem is not limited to ammunition, nor to items being provided to Ukraine. According to Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and defense expert with CSIS, the pace of production at U.S. factories means it would take over 10 years to replace the U.S. fleet of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, and almost 20 years to replace the stock of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles. It would be a minimum of 44 years before the Pentagon could replace its fleet of aircraft carriers.
In Europe, the problems are equally grave. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned in February that the wait time for large-caliber weapons has more than tripled, meaning items ordered now will not be delivered for over two years. In Germany, amid plans for a dramatic military expansion, its ammunition supply is believed to be sufficient for two days of fighting. In one war game, British stocks lasted eight days.
To address those problems, European Union leaders are exploring ways to accelerate manufacturing, possibly by using advance-purchase agreements modeled on the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine. In Ukraine, the ammunition crunch is existential. In places like Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops are locked in a grisly battle with Russian mercenary and military fighters, defending forces say they must ration artillery ammunition because they receive far less than they need.
Fortunately for Kyiv, Russia, with its defense industry under severe sanctions, has a similar problem. According to Kyrylo Budanov, the Ukrainian military intelligence chief, the Kremlin has been forced to reduce the pace of air attacks due to dwindling stocks of key munitions, including the Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles. Producing enough missiles for one major strike, he said recently, now takes up to two months.
The Pentagon's own analysis of the U.S. defense sector reveals an industry poorly equipped to match the productive prowess of World War II, when U.S. factories churned out planes and weapons that powered the Allied militaries to victory over the Axis powers. Its problems trace in part to the consolidation that occurred after the Cold War, as military spending fell and the number of uniformed personnel shrank by a third.
In a world where no major state-on-state conflict was expected, the federal government welcomed a wave of mergers and acquisitions that dramatically shrank the sector. At one point, 1,000 civilian defense jobs disappeared every day. In the 1990s, the United States had 51 major air and defense contractors. Today, there are five. The number of airplane manufacturers has fallen from eight to three. Meanwhile, 90 percent of missiles now come from three sources.
The Pentagon used to design weapons programs so there would be at least two manufacturing sources, but over time it began to view that excess capacity as wasteful. Officials sought ways to maintain the competition in part by piggybacking off the commercial sector, but it did not always work. "We quit buying more than we needed," said David Berteau, a former Pentagon acquisition official who heads the Professional Services Council, an industry group. "We quit paying for more than we needed."
It was easier to overlook production problems during the two decades of counterinsurgent war that followed the 9/11 attacks, when U.S. forces battled lightly armed militants in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. That is quickly changing with the demands posed by the large-scale conventional conflict underway now.
Industry experts say inconsistent, unpredictable military demand and short-term contracts dictated by appropriations cycles have further discouraged corporate investment in extra capacity. And because there is no commercial market for items like surface-to-air missiles or precision bombs, companies with specialized production cannot rely on civilian demand to keep them afloat.
Officials note that production lags also are due to the fact that military equipment today is inherently more complicated to build than it was during World War II, when Ford could produce a plane an hour. Now weaponry often requires microelectronics and parts from dozens or hundreds of facilities. Lockheed Martin's F-35 stealth fighter, for one, contains 300,000 parts sourced from 1,700 suppliers.
Doug Bush, the Army's chief weapons buyer, characterized the government's decision to keep facilities like the one in Scranton in operation despite a decades-long absence of such sizable demand as a bet that paid off. "It was a public policy choice. An expensive one," he said. "But they were kept as an insurance policy for this exact circumstance."
The Army now plans to boost its monthly capacity for producing 155-mm shells from about 14,000 now to 30,000 this spring, and eventually to 90,000. The military also is spending $80 million to bring a second source online for the Javelin missile's rocket motor, a key component, and plans to double production to around 4,000 a year.
The Army recently signed a $1.2 billion contract for Raytheon to build six more units of national advanced surface-to-air defense systems, which are being used in the war in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks, but they will not be ready for another two years.
Researchers note, however, that of the $45 billion Congress has appropriated for producing new weapons for Ukraine and replacing donated U.S. stocks, the Pentagon as of February had placed contracts for only around $7 billion, raising questions about whether it is moving fast enough.
Industry officials, lawmakers and Pentagon leaders agree that building a greater ability to quickly expand production of needed weapons will require both time and new investment. "You have to bring all of those different streams of increased production together at the right time," Bush said. "And so that would be one challenge, and that is just, you know, sequencing a large scale industrial ramp up like this."
While support for defense spending is typically strong on Capitol Hill, backing for arming Ukraine has slipped, especially among Republicans. One recent poll showed that 40 percent of Republicans now believe the United States is giving too much aid to Ukraine, up from 9 percent last spring.
And it is not clear how much more military spending, which already represents more than 3 percent of gross domestic product, Americans will countenance in an era of inflation and economic strain, no matter the rationale.
At a recent hearing, Rep. Lisa C. McClain (R-Mich.), told Pentagon officials that voters in her district were worried about getting mired in a "never-ending war" in Ukraine. "They believe that we are spending money and resources on a fight overseas, rather than getting our own fiscal house in order," she said.
At the Scranton munitions plant, which is operated by General Dynamics, long steel billets undergo a multiday transformation from burning-hot shafts of metal to finished artillery shells ready to be trucked to a plant in Iowa, where they are filled with explosives and dispatched for training or battle. It can be two to three months from when shells leave Scranton until they are ready to be used.
The city surrounding the plant tells the story of broader industrial decline that is another important element in the production scramble today. As its coal and steel industries drew flocks of immigrant workers in the 19th century, Scranton became an important rail hub and was dubbed "Steamtown" for the steam-powered locomotives that helped fuel its rise.
But the city's population declined along with the coal industry after World War II. Today, the previously booming city center shows the mixed results of economic revitalization efforts: shuttered store fronts, a handful of brewpubs (for the drunks), and an art house (porno) movie theater.
President Biden has identified Scranton, his hometown, as a symbol of the erosion of American manufacturing power, vowing to make a reversal of that trend a signature of his administration. "When jobs move overseas, factories at home close down. Once-thriving cities and towns became shadows of what they used to be, and they lost a sense of their self-worth along the way," he said in late January.
Since its apex in 1979, more than 7 million jobs have disappeared from the American manufacturing sector, over a third of its workforce. The defense sector has also shed a third of its workforce.
While General Dynamics said the historic Scranton plant remains an attractive employer, in part because of its competitive wages, finding the right workers for its facilities is not easy in an economy with low unemployment and a dearth of traditional manufacturing skills like metalworking. "It's still a challenge," said Todd Smith, the company's general manager for northeast Pennsylvania.
Biden has touted new investments in rail and other infrastructure that U.S. officials hope can anchor a new era of American productivity. "Where the hell is it written that . . . America can't lead the world again in manufacturing?" he demanded.
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti said she hopes for added jobs at the Scranton plant, which now employs about 300 people, and other defense manufacturers in the area. "It's union work. It's stable work. It's work that you can build a career and support a family on," she said. "So any of those types of jobs are critical for us."
It is not clear how much the Scranton facility, which already runs 24/7 during the week along with some weekend hours, can expand its manufacturing output. Plant officials said the pace of production has not accelerated since the Ukraine war began, and they are not aware of plans to ramp up operations.
While the hoped-for production transformation may not happen fast enough for Ukraine, as Kyiv braces for a massive springtime assault by Kremlin forces, the next conventional conflict could be far larger and more deadly.
The Ukraine scramble "has also given us some ideas of what we need to look at when it comes to Taiwan and China, because we have seen the need to surge," said Kea Matory, director of legislative policy at the National Defense Industrial Association. "So this is a good learning opportunity for us."
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>>> Booz Allen Invests in Hidden Level, Inc.
BusinessWire
February 21, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/booz-allen-invests-hidden-level-130000939.html
MCLEAN, Va., February 21, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) today announced that its corporate venture capital arm, Booz Allen Ventures, LLC, has made a strategic investment in Hidden Level, Inc., a developer of passive sensing technology of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), such as drones, for high-interference environments. Hidden Level utilizes next generation radio frequency (RF) sensing technology to provide multi-domain situational awareness and support to counter-UAS missions. This is the first investment by Booz Allen Ventures in calendar year 2023, and is aligned to the firm’s Digital Battlespace Platform, focused on the accelerated adoption of emerging technologies and operational concepts for the firm’s global defense clients.
"The ongoing conflict in Ukraine empirically demonstrates the value of UAS technologies and disproportionate intelligence in modern warfare," said Steve Escaravage, executive vice president at Booz Allen and leader of the firm’s Digital Battlespace Platform. "Investments in companies like Hidden Level accelerate our ability to bring novel insights to the counter-UAS mission, expanding the potential for decision advantage by our nation’s warfighters."
The current and future warfighting domains call for innovative c-UAS capabilities like those developed by Hidden Level, whose sensors can detect and track low-altitude airborne threats using adaptive RF signal detection techniques, thus increasing airspace situational awareness and informing counter measure opportunities.
"We’re very excited about the path forward with Booz Allen to support DOD missions and provide critical insights for our soldiers on the ground," said Jeff Cole, chief executive officer and co-founder of Hidden Level. "The investment from Booz Allen Ventures is a natural extension of our deep technology work, paired with Booz Allen’s mission expertise. Booz Allen understands the technology needed to support warfighters, and Hidden Level will play an important role in both tactically and strategically supporting DOD through dual-use technology to achieve decision superiority."
The $100 million corporate venture capital arm furthers Booz Allen’s commitment to invest in strategic dual-use, commercial technologies that will provide federal clients disruptive technology for critical missions. Aligned with client demand and the firm’s VoLT (Velocity, Leadership, Technology) growth strategy, Booz Allen Ventures will invest in early-stage companies and technologies within four core areas of demand: defense, artificial intelligence/machine learning, cybersecurity, and emerging/deep technology. Previous Booz Allen Ventures investments include Latent AI, Synthetaic, and Reveal Technology.
"In an ever-changing geopolitical climate, it is imperative we continue to advance technology for our clients, and to empower warfighters with the tools and information they need to perform their jobs safely," said Travis Bales, a leader within Booz Allen Ventures and former Army officer. "We are excited about the work Booz Allen and Hidden Level are doing to accelerate innovation and enhance mission critical technology to meet the needs of our defense clients."
About Booz Allen Hamilton
For more than 100 years, military, government, and business leaders have turned to Booz Allen Hamilton to solve their most complex problems. As a consulting firm with experts in analytics, digital solutions, engineering, and cyber, we help organizations transform. We are a key partner on some of the most innovative programs for governments worldwide and trusted by their most sensitive agencies. We work shoulder-to-shoulder with clients, using a mission-first approach to choose the right strategy and technology to help them realize their vision.
With global headquarters in McLean, Virginia, our firm employs approximately 31,100 people globally as of December 31, 2022, and had revenue of $8.4 billion for the 12 months ended March 31, 2022. To learn more, visit www.boozallen.com. (NYSE: BAH)
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>>> One of the Biggest Propaganda Campaigns Ever
BY JAMES RICKARDS
FEBRUARY 28, 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/one-of-the-biggest-propaganda-campaigns-ever/
One of the Biggest Propaganda Campaigns Ever
It’s extremely difficult to find the truth about the war in Ukraine.
The first reason for this is because… it’s a war. Wars are always difficult to gauge in real-time. The phrase “fog of war” was invented to convey the uncertainty and imprecision about the progress of any particular war.
Still, there’s another reason the war in Ukraine is confusing for so many.
It’s because the Ukrainian propaganda effort is one of the most astonishingly effective concoctions of lies ever seen.
From the “Ghost of Kyiv” fighter ace to the “Heroes of Snake Island” to wildly exaggerated claims of Russian casualties to the suppression of any news that reflects badly on Ukraine, the Ukrainian propaganda machine has been firing on all cylinders.
This might be expected given that President Zelenskyy is a former actor and comedian. He’s used to the media stage and making up scenes for the audience. Zelenskyy is backed up by a small army of media advisers and amplified by sympathizers including President Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and outlets like The New York Times.
Courage Under (Phony) Fire
The latest propaganda stunt was Joe Biden’s trip to Kyiv a few days before the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. Biden made a canned speech, authorized another $500 million in weapons and hopped back onto a train to Poland.
The propaganda pièce de résistance was when Biden and Zelenskyy walked into an open courtyard and the Kyiv air raid sirens began blaring. The Russians had been advised in advance that Biden would be there, and they agreed not to stage any raids during Biden’s visit.
In fact, there had been no raids for some time. No one saw any planes, drones or missiles. The sirens were just a stage effect intended to create a false sense of danger to be picked up as a soundtrack by global media.
Ukraine is losing the war badly but you can’t blame Westerners for believing otherwise. They’re all victims of the Zelenskyy-Ukraine propaganda machine.
What about the sanctions? How are they working out?
Sorry, but I Was Right
U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine have been worse than a complete failure. They have failed to change Russia’s behavior, have failed to hurt Russia’s economy in a material way and have boomeranged to hurt the U.S., Europe and many Western financial institutions.
I wrote about this last year in March and April not long after the war began. My comments were greeted with skepticism (at best) and extreme criticism (at worse). No matter. I was right then and the evidence since has been overwhelming.
The Russian ruble is stronger today than before the war began. Russian oil and gas revenue is higher than it was before the war. Russian oil is being sold at a discount to India and China, but Russia is making up the discount in increased volume.
The Russian economy was only down about 3% in 2022 (earlier estimates expected it to fall around 20% or more), and the Russian economy is expected to show modest growth this year versus likely recessions in the U.S. and Europe. Russia and China are far along in developing an interoperative payments and settlement system for international transactions that will replace the SWIFT system that Russia was ejected from.
Actually damaging Russian institutions is extremely difficult because Russia has spent years preparing for just such a financial attack from the United States. Its banks are robust with good liquidity and access to interbank facilities, even without the benefit of SWIFT or Western correspondents.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to destroy the Ukrainian army with missiles from North Korea, drones from Iran and its own massive industrial capacity.
The Only Card the U.S. Can Play
So Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and the U.S.-led sanctions regime against Russia has failed. The only U.S. response is to escalate the conflict.
The escalation of U.S. weaponry provided to Ukraine is stunning. We started with Stinger surface-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft, and Javelin missiles, which are potent anti-tank weapons (although the British NLAW system being used in Ukraine is apparently better).
Next, we provided the HIMARS, which is a long-range heavy artillery piece with precision-guided shells. Ukraine has used it to good effect, although it seems the Russians have developed means to counter it.
Contrary to what the propaganda machine says, the Russians aren’t idiots. In fact, the very head of Ukraine’s military has said that “all military science is located in Russia.”
Anyway, since the delivery of HIMARS, the U.S., the U.K. and Germany have pledged to provide top-of-the-line tanks including the U.S. Abrams tank, the U.K. Challenger 2 and the German Leopard 2. Incidentally, there are unconfirmed reports that some Leopards are now appearing on the battlefield.
Then, without skipping a beat, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy demanded F-16 fighter jets. Biden said no, but he also said no to tanks at first. It’s likely just a matter of time before he approves the F-16s.
All of this has been backed up with billions of dollars of intelligence, surveillance and communications systems designed to spot Russian targets and direct the application of U.S. weapons.
That’s to say nothing about the actual presence of NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine. Some sources indicate that as many as 20,000 Polish troops are on the front lines dressed in Ukrainian uniforms, making them foreign mercenaries. U.S. and U.K. forces are also on the ground there not in uniform, which is a violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Of course, this is no secret to the Russians. They recently warned us to withdraw all NATO personnel and equipment from Ukraine. If we don’t, the Russians renewed the warning that they could become legitimate targets.
Ukraine Is Losing
Still, none of this assistance has been particularly effective. Ukraine is losing the war badly as Russia slowly and methodically wears down Ukrainian forces along a broad front. Russia nearly has the strategically important city of Bakhmut encircled and will probably have it completely cut off before long, trapping 20,000–30,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
The loss of Bakhmut will be a significant defeat for Ukraine, as it will significantly weaken their defense line in the Donbas. They really only have one defense line to fall back to, and it’s notably weaker than the line they’re currently fighting to hold.
If Russia eventually manages to break through that last line, there’s very little between that line and the Dnieper River to stop them.
None of this is an indictment of the Ukrainian military, by the way. They’ve fought hard and bravely, and continue to do so. It’s just that they’re facing a superior force that significantly outnumbers them in tanks, aircraft, artillery and, importantly, ammunition. They’re simply outgunned.
Where’s the Cavalry?
Meanwhile, many of the weapons pledged (including the tanks) have not actually arrived and may not be ready for six months or more. Ukraine could sure use them now!
The F-16s in particular are a pipe dream because Ukrainian pilots don’t know how to fly them, and training can take almost a year. It’s possible that NATO pilots could secretly pilot them, but just think of the Russian propaganda victory if they shoot down and capture NATO pilots who aren’t supposed to be flying over Ukraine.
Still, apart from their effectiveness, another question arises. Can the U.S., the U.K. and Germany actually afford to provide these weapons without damaging their own readiness in the event of wars elsewhere?
The fact is Western arsenals have been badly depleted because of the weapons and ammunition provided to Ukraine. The European arsenals were not large to begin with, but even the U.S. supplies dropped into the danger zone. The situation is worse than that because the shortages cannot be made up quickly.
The U.S. has shut down many ammunition factories since the Cold War ended. These can be restarted but full wartime mobilization takes years, not weeks. World War II is a good example.
By 1943, the U.S. was producing wartime aircraft at a rate of almost 100,000 planes per year. But in 1941, that number was only 18,000. The Ford Motor Co. basically stopped automobile production and converted its huge River Rouge factory to aircraft production for the duration.
That fivefold increase in fighters and bombers took two years to achieve. It was not done in months. It’s fair to ask if this war is worth it in broad terms.
It’s even more pointed to ask if it’s worth jeopardizing U.S. national security by running down vital inventories of weapons to prop up a corrupt oligarchy in Eastern Europe.
The American people may discover the hard way that the answer to both questions is no.
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Rickards - >>> The Horrifying Endgame in Ukraine
BY JAMES RICKARDS
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/the-horrifying-endgame-in-ukraine/
The Horrifying Endgame in Ukraine
In yesterday’s issue, I addressed the biggest and most complex topic on the geopolitical landscape today — China.
But today I’m discussing what is by far the most alarming topic on the geopolitical landscape today. That’s the war in Ukraine and the dangers of escalation.
I’ve written extensively about two facets of the war in Ukraine that you don’t hear from legacy media in the United States or U.K. The first is that Russia is actually winning the war.
U.S. outlets such as The New York Times (a channel for the State Department) and The Washington Post (a channel for the CIA) report endlessly about how Russian plans have failed, about how incompetent they are about how the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have pushed back Russians in the Donbass, and how NATO weapons such as U.S. Abrams tanks, U.K. Challenger tanks and German Leopard tanks will turn the tide against Russia soon.
This is all nonsense. None of it is true.
Reality Check
First off, the Ukrainian advances that took place in late summer were against lightly defended positions that the Russians quickly conceded to conserve forces. The Russians were willing to give up the land so that they wouldn’t lose valuable men and materiel.
The Russians withdrew to more defensible positions and have been badly mauling Ukrainian attacking forces ever since. Ukraine has wasted incredibly large amounts of men and equipment in these futile and ill-advised attacks.
In all, credible reports indicate that AFU casualties are nearing 500,000 and are increasing at an unsustainable rate. On the other hand, reports of 100,000 Russian dead are almost certainly wild exaggerations put out by Ukraine. The BBC attempted to verify these numbers and could only find about 20,000 confirmed Russian dead based on extensive searches on funeral notices, public records, etc.
Send in the Tanks — Eventually!
What about the tanks NATO is supposedly sending? Well, the tanks have not been delivered yet and most won’t be for months or longer. Our own M1 Abrams tanks might not even arrive for a year or more.
We actually have to custom build these tanks so that they don’t have the special armor and other advanced systems that our own M1s have. The Pentagon doesn’t want them falling into Russian hands if they’re destroyed or captured. Besides, we’re only sending 31 tanks anyway.
When the NATO tanks do arrive, they’ll likely quickly be destroyed by Russian artillery, anti-tank weapons and precision missiles. They’re good tanks, but far from invincible. For decades, the Russians have been developing powerful weapons specifically designed to destroy these NATO tank models. The Russians aren’t particularly worried about them.
Aside from that, tanks rely on effective air cover for protection, which Ukraine lacks. They’ll be sitting ducks on the battlefield. It doesn’t really make sense to send tanks to Ukraine unless you send combat aircraft to give them cover (more on that below).
Russia’s Winning on the Battlefield
Meanwhile, Russian forces have nearly encircled the city of Bakhmut, which is a major transportation and logistics hub, with several key roads and rail lines passing through it. It’ll probably fall to the Russians within weeks.
Losing Bakhmut will be a major blow to Ukraine, despite claims in the western media that it really isn’t very important. Ukraine’s entire 800-mile defensive line would probably begin to crumble, and they don’t have heavily fortified positions to fall back on. Ukrainian troops, while brave and competent soldiers, are exhausted and running out of supplies as it is.
On top of that, it appears likely that Russia is preparing a devastating offensive with massive amounts of men, tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, helicopters, drones and fixed-wing aircraft.
This Russian army is not the same army that invaded Ukraine a year ago. It’s much better trained, led and equipped. It’s learned from the mistakes it made during its initial invasion last February. Ukraine shouldn’t expect them to repeat those mistakes.
Does all this mean I’m cheering on a Russian victory in Ukraine? No, I’m just observing the facts on the ground and consolidating them to perform an objective analysis.
That analysis leads me to believe that Russia will win the war militarily. Western military assistance may prolong the fighting but won’t affect the ultimate outcome. It’ll just delay the inevitable and get a lot more people needlessly killed.
The Much Greater Risk
The second facet of this war not reported in the media, or at least downplayed, is the growing risk of nuclear war.
This risk increases with every escalatory step by both sides. The U.S. is the leader in reckless escalation by supplying long-range artillery, Patriot anti-missile batteries, intelligence, surveillance, and now the tanks. Russia responds at each step.
There’s a number of steps before the two sides arrive at the nuclear level, but neither shows a willingness to step back.
By the way, Russia has every legal right to attack those NATO countries supplying arms to Ukraine. By supplying arms to a party to the conflict, they’ve given up their neutrality and have become, in effect, combatants. Russia hasn’t done this because it doesn’t want to bring NATO directly into the fight. But legally, it can.
Gimme, Gimme, Gimme
Ukraine’s demands on the U.S., UK and the rest of NATO for advanced weapons to fight Russians know no limits. The West began by supplying Ukraine with cash, intelligence and anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin missile. Soon we were supplying long-range artillery, drones, and more cash.
As Russian advances continued, Zelensky demanded and got Patriot anti-missile batteries that can destroy incoming Russian missiles. The U.S. artillery was aimed at Russian Crimea. Several drones struck inside Russia at sensitive air bases with nuclear weapons nearby.
The next demand for more weapons involved advanced tanks that are in the process of being supplied by the U.S., UK, Germany, and Poland. In the latest move, that comes as no surprise, Ukraine is now demanding F-16 fighter jets from the U.S., one of the most advanced aircraft in the world.
But Russia has the most sophisticated air defense system in the world and is very capable of shooting down F-16s in large numbers.
Biden has denied Zelensky’s request so far, but he previously ruled out sending tanks before finally giving in. The same thing will probably happen with the planes. But they won’t turn the tide against Russia.
Once these advanced systems show they can’t help, what’s the Ukrainian’s next demand? Russia can escalate just as quickly and lethally as the U.S.
This entire scenario is a long slow march toward nuclear war or the complete disintegration of Ukraine.
Is Anyone Really Prepared for This?
The U.S. won’t end the weapons deliveries because Joe Biden is afraid of losing face and his closest advisors such as Victoria Nuland have an irrational hatred for Russia and are total warmongers.
Now, we can add a new danger, resulting from desperation. This is the fact that the U.S. itself may be the biggest loser in the war.
As Ukraine disappears under a massive Russian onslaught, the U.S. will grow increasingly desperate. Its credibility is on the line after committing so much money, materiel and moral weight to Ukraine’s defense.
The Biden administration has essentially turned the war in Ukraine into an existential crisis for the U.S. and NATO, when it never should have been. Ukraine has never been a vital U.S. interest. But the war is existential for Russia, and won’t give up.
Is the U.S. just going to throw up its hands and concede Russian victory? NATO may actually disintegrate in the face of such spectacular failure. So, we’ll probably double down.
Maybe a desperate Biden orders troops into western Ukraine as a buffer against a complete Russian takeover of the country. You can imagine what could go wrong. That situation may quickly devolve into a direct war between the U.S. and Russia rather than the proxy war that it is now.
The American people and investors in particular are not prepared for any of this. They should be. It’s becoming increasingly likely.
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>>> Leonardo DRS (DRS)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DRS/profile?p=DRS
It’s the likes of Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) that come to mind when we talk about defense stocks. Leonardo DRS (NASDAQ:DRS) is an emerging defense player that’s likely to make it big in the coming years. DRS stock has been higher by almost 40% in the last 12 months, and I expect the uptrend to sustain.
As an overview, the company was formed by the merger of Rada Electronic (an Israel-based defense company) with Leonardo DRS. Rada is a manufacturer of tactical radars, and Leonardo is a supplier of defense electronic products & technologies. The combined entity has an addressable market of more than $20 billion. This provides ample headroom for growth.
From a valuation perspective, DRS stock trades at an attractive forward price-earnings ratio of 21.9. Additionally, the market-capitalization-to-sales ratio of 1.2 is attractive.
It’s also worth noting that for Q2 2022, the combined entity reported a net-debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 0.7. The financial flexibility is high, and Leonardo is targeting mergers and acquisitions for growth. I see a multibagger in DRS stock with a long-term investment horizon.
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>>> China Built a Hypersonic Generator That Could Power Unimaginable Weapons
Popular Mechanics
by Tim Newcomb
February 6, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-built-hypersonic-generator-could-210600834.html
China Built a Hypersonic Generator
Turning gas into plasma creates an intense electrical current for powering potent hypersonic weapons.
Chinese researchers built a hypersonic generator that could power military lasers, rail guns, and microwave weapons.
The relative compact nature of the hypersonic generator opens the scope of potential uses.
Chinese scientists say one formidable explosion inside a shock tunnel can turn hot gas into the most powerful hypersonic generator a military has ever seen—strong enough to charge military lasers, rails guns, microwave weapons, and more.
As reported by the South China Morning Post, a new peer-reviewed paper in the Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics explains how the hypersonic generator turns one detonation inside a shock tunnel into enough electrical current to power hypersonic weapons of the future.
The Chinese scientists were able to use a controlled detonation to turn hot gas into a plasma filled with racing ions, which converted to current. With shock waves accelerating the compressed argon gas to 14 times the speed of sound, the charged ion-filled plasma then passed through magnetohydrodynamics generators to produce electric current up to 212 kilowatts while using .26 gallons of gas. That’s enough power for a burst of energy unlike anything available now in a compact system.
“It has a large capacity and high efficiency," the scientists write, via the SCMP. “There is no need for intermediate energy storage components. The energy can be directly transferred to the load without a high-power switch. And the device can start up quickly.” The generator also has no rotating parts, increasing efficiency and ease of use.
With some of the largest weapons in development requiring a gigawatt of input energy, the researchers say they can produce that with 177 cubic feet of hypersonic plasma (that’s smaller than most vans).
China isn’t ready to deploy the new system just yet. There are plenty of logistical hurdles to sort out in how to transport a device that requires controlled detonation, and just how to handle the gas needed for a second charge when on the move. Still, if the next iteration of the science offers up an automated reloading of the technology, China’s hypersonic weapons just got a colossal burst of power.
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>>> Is the war in Ukraine at a major turning point? It sure looks that way
Salon
by Lucian K. Truscott
Jan 21, 2023
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is-the-war-in-ukraine-at-a-major-turning-point-it-sure-looks-that-way/ar-AA16AVdD?cvid=8ee680fd60c24bc5824abc902ec1d526
The thing you've got to understand about chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and CIA directors is that they don't just wake up in the morning and decide to do the kind of stuff they did this week. Last Friday, CIA Director William Burns met secretly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. On Monday, Gen. Mark Milley was in Germany to observe the training of a new Ukrainian mechanized infantry battalion that is destined for the front lines in the conflict with Russia. On Tuesday, Milley traveled to a secret location in eastern Poland to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny, the highest-ranking officer in Ukraine's armed forces. On Monday, John Finer, the deputy national security adviser, Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, and Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, met with President Zelenskyy and his top advisers in Ukraine to discuss the status of the war and U.S. support for Ukraine.
The whole week was a full-court press by the U.S. defense establishment on Ukraine's behalf. Under normal circumstances, weeks of preparation go into arranging these kinds of meetings and the travel involved. In this case, the planning probably took days, rather than weeks. The meetings that took place over the last week had three targets, the first of these being the war itself. Contacts between high-level officials last week involved war-planning and intelligence sharing, crucial to gains on the battlefield. The second target was Vladimir Putin. No attempt was made to conceal these very high-level contacts, so the whole week can be understood as a message to Putin and the Russian military that the U.S. government and its military and intelligence and diplomatic leaders stand foursquare behind Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression. The third target of the meetings was the U.S. Congress. It will be much more difficult for Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his unruly right wing to continue their threats to reduce support in the Congress with such high-level meetings between American and Ukrainian officials taking place.
The most important signals were sent by Milley and Burns. General officers like Milley don't make personal visits and put their imprimatur on events they expect to end in loss and disaster, and thereby have negative impacts on their careers and legacy. Milley doesn't have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but he's got everything else invested in a Ukrainian victory over Russia. As the war closes in on its first anniversary, I think Milley and Burns and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin have concluded that Ukraine can win its war against Russia and win it in this calendar year. Austin was at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday for a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which consists of NATO defense leaders and meets monthly.
Generals like Mark Milley don't make personal visits and put their imprimatur on events they expect to end in loss and disaster — and thereby damage their careers.
This month's meeting was primarily about pressuring Germany to allow the shipment of its Leopard II tanks from Poland to Ukraine for use against the Russian military. Several NATO nations have the German Leopards in their militaries, but Germany won't allow the export of its key weapons system to other nations without its consent. Zelenskyy made an impassioned plea for the Leopard II tanks by video to the gathering of defense officials at Ramstein. German officials have not yet agreed to shipping these tanks to Ukraine, although in statements to the press after the meeting, Austin seemed to indicate the decision was imminent. Britain has already agreed to send its Challenger II tanks to Ukraine, but there are no plans for the U.S. to send M1 Abrams tanks, for reasons I'll get to in a moment. But Austin reminded reporters in Germany that American Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker Combat Vehicles are already scheduled for shipment to Ukraine in support of the war. In fact, Milley was in Germany to observe the training of a Ukrainian mechanized battalion that will be equipped with Bradleys.
The U.S. reluctance to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine stems from a number of reasons. These are the most highly advanced armored vehicles in the world. They are basically an armored interface with the electronic battlefield mounted on tracks: Everything on board is connected to satellite guidance and intelligence systems with computerized targeting, all defended by complicated high-tech armor and attack-avoidance devices. Training in the combat use of the Abrams takes months, but that's not the only issue. Everything on the Abrams is in danger of breaking down and the whole apparatus needs constant maintenance, much of which can only be done by specialized civilian technicians. In places like Kuwait, where stockpiles of Abrams tanks stand ready for use against possible aggression by Iran, there are warehouses of spare parts and civilian technicians on constant standby. None of that can be readily established in the Ukraine combat zone.
During his visit to the training site in Grafenwoehr, Germany, Milley pointed out that the Ukrainian battalion was being trained in using its Bradleys in combined operations, a tactic that integrates armored and infantry units with artillery and air defenses in attacks on the enemy. Combined operations are baked into U.S. tactics and are basic to the training of all soldiers, from privates in the foxholes to colonels and generals who command thousands of combat troops.
U.S. officers go to schools throughout their careers to learn combined operations in each of the Army's combat branches – infantry, artillery, armor, signal and engineers. As lieutenants, officers first attend basic training in their branch, then they attend branch advance schools as captains who will command infantry, armored, artillery or air defense companies. As majors, they are sent to the Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, to learn battalion and brigade combined operations. As colonels, they attend the Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, to learn division and army-size operations. (An "army" is designation for a combination of divisions for operational combat purposes.) In all these schools, officers are taught how to serve on battalion, brigade, division, and army staffs, doing jobs like operations, intelligence, personnel and logistics.
That kind of across-the-board training is basic to the U.S. military, and the challenge with Ukraine is transferring all this tactical knowledge to another army at warp speed. The Russian army, on the other hand, seems to do little training in combined operations. Military experts have said that's the major reason why so many Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine. Their command structure is strictly top-down. Russia doesn't have the layers of well-trained staff officers and commanders of lower units that the U.S. Army has as a matter of course. Generals have had to take battlefield front-line positions because they are the only ones in the chain of command authorized to make key decisions.
Ukrainian soldiers are currently at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, learning to use the Patriot air defense missile system that will soon be deployed in Ukraine. Now hundreds of them are undergoing American military training at U.S. Army facilities in Germany, learning to deploy multiple combat units and equipment all at once against the Russians.
The U.S. may not literally have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but it's got pretty much everything else on the ground there, from MRAP mine-resistant armored personnel carriers to 155mm howitzers to Avenger radar-controlled air defense systems to Javelin anti-tank weapons to Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to HIMARS rocket systems to Humvees and personal-protection equipment such as helmets,bulletproof vests, boots and winter uniforms. And now there are reports that U.S. officials are contemplating giving Ukraine weapons capable of striking deep into Crimea, the peninsula seized by Russia in 2014. That can only mean longer-range American truck-mounted precision rockets, which can strike targets between 250 and 350 miles away.
And then there was the meeting between CIA Director Burns and Zelenskyy last week, which may have been as important as all the military hardware combined. The CIA and NSA can see everything Russia does in Ukraine from satellites. They know where every Russian battalion group is located, what its unit designation is and most likely the name of the Russian battalion commander. They can see every movement of every Russian tank, armored personnel carrier, and resupply truck, and see what is loaded on every flatbed railroad car headed from Russia into eastern Ukraine. It was probably CIA intelligence that led to the recent Ukrainian rocket strike on the Russian weapons stockpile and barracks in Makiivka, a suburb of Donetsk, which killed more than 60 Russian soldiers.
All of this — the training of Ukrainian troops, the shipments of heavy weapons, the visits by Milley and Burns — is being done in an in-your-face manner, in full view of Putin and his military commanders. That's just as important as the weapons and training and intelligence. The U.S. and NATO are sending a specific message to Putin: We're in this fight with Ukraine in a serious way. Milley told reporters traveling with him in Germany that the goal of training and equipping the Ukrainian combined-forces mechanized battalion was so it could be used "sometime before the spring rains show up. That would be ideal."
That could be a statement of fact, or it could be a feint, intended to get Putin to prepare for an offensive that might come before the spring, as Milley said, or in the summer or even next fall, like last year's offensive that recaptured the entire Kharkiv region. You don't get to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff because you're a kiss-ass or a game-player, and Putin knows this. Milley and Zelenskyy are going to keep Putin guessing until he wakes up one morning and finds his troops once again on the run toward the Russian border. That's what this week was about. Putin just doesn't know when Zelenskyy will pull the trigger that Milley and Burns and the U.S. trainers in Germany are giving him.
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Jim Rickards - >>> Time to Get Real About Ukraine
BY JAMES RICKARDS
JANUARY 4, 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/time-to-get-real-about-ukraine/
Time to Get Real About Ukraine
The war in Ukraine remains the most important story in the world today.
Don’t believe the incessant U.S. government and media propaganda about Ukraine. Ukraine is not winning the war; they are losing badly.
But wait, hasn’t the news been talking up Ukrainian gains in recent months, while Russia is retreating and being badly beaten? That’s the mainstream, pro-Ukrainian narrative. Here’s the reality:
Most of the Ukrainian gains were against lightly defended positions that the Russians quickly abandoned because they were not worth fighting to defend.
Those Russian troops (really Donbas militias) were ordered to retreat to fortified Russian lines while Ukrainian forces rushing to fill the void were slaughtered by Russian artillery bombardments.
Most people think of war in terms of territory. If you lose territory, it must mean you’re losing the war. But it’s not always that simple.
The Russian Strategy
The Russians will willingly cede territory in order to fight again at a later time under more favorable circumstances. They’ll simply retake it when the terms favor them. They’re not primarily concerned about the territory per se. The primary Russian objective is to grind down and destroy the Ukrainian armed forces.
And if the Ukrainians want to keep hurling themselves against Russian positions in order to recapture land and score a propaganda coup, that’s fine with the Russians. They’ll just grind the attacking forces down with heavy artillery fire (artillery kills far more people in war than bullets or bombs).
And despite Ukrainian government claims, the best intelligence says Russia is presently enjoying an 8–10:1 casualty rate. In other words, Russia is inflicting eight–10 casualties on Ukraine for every casualty it’s suffering.
That kind of ratio isn’t sustainable for Ukraine.
Russia Prepares to Lower the Boom on Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russia has reinforced its positions with 300,000 or more fresh troops (about 30 divisions) who are rested and resupplied. That’s in addition to the number of troops already in Ukraine.
Evidence indicates they’re backed by at least 1,500 tanks, 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, 1,000 rocket artillery systems, hundreds of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters plus thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.
At the same time, all indications are that Russia is changing its strategy.
The initial Russian invasion was ill-conceived and took place in a piecemeal fashion. Contrary to mainstream opinion, Putin never intended to conquer Kyiv and occupy Ukraine. The invasion force was far too small to accomplish those objectives.
Also contrary to mainstream opinion, Putin didn’t target Ukraine’s civilian population. He wanted to avoid civilian casualties to the greatest possible extent. Of course some civilian targets were hit, but that’s going to happen in war.
Putin instead believed that the “special military operation” would tell Kyiv and Washington that Russia was serious about enforcing its red lines in Ukraine, that it was willing to use force. But he thought his show of force would bring them to the negotiating table.
He badly miscalculated. Rather than bring Kyiv and Washington to the negotiating table, they resolved to aggressively defend Ukraine. Russia’s ill-prepared forces were pushed back and routed in many instances.
“Russia Means Business This Time”
But now Russia is taking the gloves off. It’s already launched heavy, sustained attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including the power grid and energy nodes. Its army is also regrouping and preparing for massive counteroffensives.
It won’t make the same mistakes it made during last February’s ill-planned attacks. Russia means business this time.
It’s not interested in bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table anymore. It’s focused instead on destroying Ukraine’s military forces and imposing a settlement on Kyiv.
A major winter offensive will begin soon, likely when the ground in southern Ukraine is fully frozen (muddy ground will bog down Russian forces). A successful counteroffensive will consolidate Russian control of Donbas (the heartland of Ukrainian industry and natural resources), give Russia control of Zaporizhzhya (the largest nuclear power plant in Europe) and possibly include the conquest of Odessa, the most important Ukrainian Black Sea port.
The cost on the rest of Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv will be horrendous, including the near-complete degradation of its power-generating capacity, transportation lines and food supplies. U.S. and U.K. weapons supplies won’t mean much because they are too little, too late and the Ukrainians are scarcely trained to use them.
But these prospects make no impact at all on the anti-Russian warhawks, both Democrat and Republican, who are determined to prolong the war at all costs — even if it means fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
A Great Deal for the Military-Industrial Complex
It seems that every week or so the U.S. announces a new multibillion-dollar package of aid for Ukraine. These aid packages fall into two categories: Some are simple financial transfers to keep the oligarchs in Ukraine supplied with funds to keep their government going.
Others consist of weapons including drones, anti-missile batteries like the Patriot, long-range artillery and most recently an announcement that the U.S. may supply Ukraine with Bradley Fighting Vehicles, or BFVs.
The total of such Ukraine aid, including the $1.7 trillion budget boondoggle passed by the U.S. Congress two weeks ago, is now approaching $100 billion.
When it comes to weapons, there’s a lot less than meets the eye in terms of helping Ukraine. It appears that Ukraine is getting billions of dollars in equipment, but in fact, Ukraine is getting castoffs from U.S. inventories.
What’s really going on is the U.S. is dumping old or obsolete systems on Ukraine (the original BFV was built in 1981, over forty40 years ago) and then using the appropriations to order new weapons for itself.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will likely send Ukraine an older version of the Patriot air defense system — and only one battery at that, consisting of eight missile launchers. It’s not the game-changer many seem to think it is. The Russians will simply overwhelm the system with numbers, and then take it out. It probably won’t last long whenever it’s deployed, which could be several months from now.
The real winners of these weapons transfers will be U.S. defense contractors like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, who are getting the money to build new advanced systems for the U.S.
The real losers will be the Ukrainian people, who will continue to die needlessly in the absence of a negotiated settlement that recognizes the reality on the ground.
How Much Western Military Aid Actually Makes It Into the Field?
To make this racket even more absurd, much of the equipment that does make it to Ukraine is quickly blown up by Russia.
Russia has very good intelligence on the whereabouts of these weapons systems once they reach Ukraine. Using global satellite imaging, laser guidance and a blend of drones and cruise missiles, Putin has had success preventing these weapons from reaching the battlefield or destroying them if they do.
But the U.S. has already spent so much money on Ukraine and committed itself so strongly to a complete Russian defeat, a Russian victory would represent another strategic defeat for the U.S., still smarting from the debacle in Afghanistan.
What remains of U.S. credibility is on the line.
Brinksmanship
What happens if Russia brings Ukraine to the verge of defeat? Will Biden and his strongly anti-Russian administration simply throw up their hands and concede victory to Russia? Based on their maximalist rhetoric and commitment to Ukrainian victory, that appears unlikely.
Biden has shown no signs of relenting and recently said he will supply Ukraine with weapons as long as it takes. On the other hand, Putin will also not back down and seems determined to secure the entire seacoast of Ukraine, including the critical port of Odessa.
The great danger could arise if the U.S. foolishly continues escalation to the bitter end in order to stave off a Ukrainian defeat. I’m not predicting it’ll happen, but things could escalate to the point where tactical nuclear weapons are employed out of desperation. From that point, it’s a short step toward the broader use of strategic nuclear weapons.
Again, I’m not specifically predicting that will happen. But it is a realistic possibility based on the logic of escalation, and we seem to be sleepwalking into a nuclear confrontation unless we wake up.
Will we?
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Greenspan - >>> A war between China and Taiwan is the economic 'black swan' investors should be most worried about, ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan warns
Business Insider
by George Glover
January 4, 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/war-between-china-taiwan-economic-102019970.html
A war between China and Taiwan poses the biggest 'black swan' risk to markets right now, Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan has warned.
The former Federal Reserve chair said in his 2023 investment outlook that a conflict between the two countries would be "a nightmare scenario" for the global economy.
Chinese president Xi Jinping tightened his grip on power when he was appointed for a third term last year.
Investors should start worrying more about China – because it could invade Taiwan and trigger a global economic crisis that fuels major market sell-offs, Alan Greenspan has warned.
The former Federal Reserve chair said Tuesday that a war between the two Asian countries poses the most significant "black swan" risk to financial markets right now.
Black swans are unpredictable events – such as the 2008 financial crisis or Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year – that end up having unexpected and severe consequences for stocks and other financial asset classes.
"The black swan event I think markets, and really the world at large, ought to be most worried about is some kind of conflict erupting between China and Taiwan," Greenspan, who is an economic advisor to Advisors Capital Management, said in a year-end question-and-answer investment commentary published on the firm's website.
"Xi Jinping has methodically consolidated power and made himself essentially president for life," he added. "He has been fairly candid in his intention to eventually bring Taiwan back into the fold, and he may begin to feel his window is closing."
President Xi tightened his grip on power last year when he secured a third consecutive five-year term as Chinese leader.
He proceeded to elevate political allies with defense backgrounds to key posts – and told the Chinese people to "prepare to undergo high winds and waves and even for the stormy seas of a major test", which many western political strategists saw as a reference to an eventual invasion of Taiwan.
An attack on Taiwan would rock the global economy because of the island's importance to the global semiconductor trade, Greenspan said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest independent chipmaker and the 15th-largest stock by market capitalization, with a total valuation of just under $400 billion.
"Taiwan has shown no willingness to acquiesce to Xi's plans and so the conditions for some type of conflict in the near future are there," Greenspan said.
"The sheer amount of world trade that currently flows through that region, and the number of semiconductors fabricated by Taiwanese firms upon which the technologies we enjoy rely, make any conflict a potential nightmare scenario," he added.
Greenspan isn't the only major voice in markets to raise the alarm about a war over Taiwan in recent months.
In November, Bridgewater Associates co-CIO Ray Dalio said that China and the US are "dangerously close" to a military conflict over the island.
Hayman Capital Management chief Kyle Bass warned in the same month that Xi had installed a "war cabinet" that could set the stage for China invading Taiwan within the next two years.
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>>> Vladimir Putin Announces Plans To Deploy Deadly Warship With 'Unstoppable' Hypersonic Missiles Against Ukraine
Story by Radar Online
Dec 21, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-announces-plans-to-deploy-deadly-warship-with-unstoppable-hypersonic-missiles-against-ukraine/ar-AA15xOAU?cvid=8de3317c0b5042fbb96ccb9d59350570
Vladimir Putin has announced his plans to deploy a new deadly warship armed with “unstoppable” hypersonic missiles against Ukraine come the new year, RadarOnline.com has learned.
The 70-year-old Russian leader made the startling announcement on Wednesday while addressing his defense chiefs during an end-of-year meeting to assess the Kremlin’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
According to Daily Star, Putin vowed to fulfill his military goals in Ukraine and also promised to provide his troops with everything they need to successfully take the neighboring nation.
Included in his plan is the deployment of the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate, the Russian warship set to be launched next month and fitted with Zircon “hypersonic” missiles.
The Zircon missiles have reportedly been in development for at least four years and are able to strike a target 620 miles away at speeds of 7,000 MPH.
Putin also claimed the soon-to-be-deployed missiles can travel “five times faster” than the missiles being developed in the United States, and the Zircon missiles are also capable of nuclear destruction.
"This is not just a hypersonic, this is an intercontinental missile,” the Russian leader said during a missile test earlier this year. "This is a much more serious weapon, and they are already on alert in Russia.”
"Weapons with a speed of Mach 3 or more are being developed in the United States,” he claimed. “Our systems fly at a speed of over Mach 20."
Putin also announced on Wednesday that another hypersonic missile – dubbed the Satan-2 – will be ready for deployment against Ukraine in the coming weeks.
As RadarOnline.com previously reported, Putin first showcased the Satan-2 missiles in April via a missile test just weeks after first invading Ukraine on February 24.
The missile launch of the Satan-2 weapons was seemingly meant to be a threat, a message and "food for thought for those who try to threaten Russia."
"The new complex has the highest tactical and technical characteristics and is capable of overcoming all modern means of anti-missile defense,” Putin said at the time, claiming the Satan-2 ballistic missile "has no analogs in the world and won't have for a long time to come."
"This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country,” he added.
As RadarOnline.com reported, Putin’s vow to deploy a new warship, hypersonic missiles and the Satan-2 missiles against Ukraine comes just weeks after Russia failed to successfully fire a “doomsday” nuclear-powered torpedo during a test launch in November.
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>>> Kissinger calls for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, Kyiv dismisses his proposal
Reuters
By Guy Faulconbridge
12-18-22
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kissinger-calls-for-a-negotiated-peace-in-ukraine-kyiv-dismisses-his-proposal/ar-AA15qoKh?OCID=ansmsnnews11
(Reuters) -Veteran U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger said the time is approaching for a negotiated peace in Ukraine to reduce the risk of another devastating world war, but the Kyiv government dismissed his comments as amounting to "appeasing the aggressor" and said there could be no deal involving ceding territory.
Kissinger, 99, and an architect of the Cold War policy of detente towards the Soviet Union as secretary of state under Republican presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, has met Russia's Vladimir Putin multiple times since he first became president in 2000.
There is no end in sight to the conflict sparked by Putin's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which has killed tens of thousands of people and driven millions from their homes. Russia now controls around a fifth of Ukraine.
The Kremlin says Kyiv must acknowledge Moscow's annexation of southern and eastern regions. Ukraine says every Russian soldier must leave its territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Kyiv applied to join NATO after Moscow announced the later annexations in September.
"The time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation," Kissinger wrote in The Spectator magazine.
"A peace process should link Ukraine to NATO, however expressed. The alternative of neutrality is no longer meaningful," Kissinger wrote.
Kissinger said that in May he had proposed a ceasefire under which Russia would withdraw to the front lines before the February invasion but Crimea would be the subject of "negotiation".
The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine and Russia annexed Crimea, with Russian-backed separatists fighting Ukraine's armed forces in eastern Ukraine.
"Mr. Kissinger still has not understood anything ... neither the nature of this war, nor its impact on the world order," Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said on Telegram.
"The prescription that the ex-Secretary of State calls for, but is afraid to say out loud, is simple: appease the aggressor by sacrificing parts of Ukraine with guarantees of non-aggression against the other states of Eastern Europe."
He added, "All supporters of simple solutions should remember the obvious: any agreement with the devil - a bad peace at the expense of Ukrainian territories - will be a victory for Putin and a recipe for success for autocrats around the world."
Kremlin officials were not available for comment late on Sunday.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, also dismissed Kissinger's proposal, saying in a Twitter post:
"Henry Kissinger calls for cease-fire along borders pre war 2/24 with Russia disgorging its conquests and negotiations on territory seized in 2014. What Kissinger doesn’t allow for are politics on both sides making this idea impossible now, maybe never."
CIA Director William Burns said in an interview published on Saturday that while most conflicts end in negotiation, the CIA's assessment was Russia was not serious yet about a real negotiation to end the war.
Putin casts what he calls Russia's "special military operation" as a watershed moment when Russia finally stood up to a Western bloc, led by the United States, seeking to capitalize on the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union by destroying Russia.
Ukraine and the West say Putin has no justification for what they say is an imperial-style war of occupation.
Kissinger warned that desires to render Russia "impotent", or even seek the dissolution of Russia, could unleash chaos. Neither Ukraine nor any Western state has advocated either path.
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>>> SR-72 Darkstar – The Top Gun: Maverick ‘Mach 10’ Plane Is ‘Real’
MSN News
by Brent M. Eastwood
Dec 7, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sr-72-darkstar-the-top-gun-maverick-mach-10-plane-is-real/ar-AA151pnH?cvid=9490d617744144e1abca1e827669c775
SR-72
More than 100,000 people at an air show in California were able to see the new mockup of the SR-72 Darkstar spy plane, which was featured in the blockbuster movie Top Gun: Maverick (it hit Mach 10 in the movie). The Hollywood version of the Darkstar sat beside the SR-71 Blackbird in October at the Aerospace Valley Open House and Air Show at Edwards Air Force Base, California. The SR-72 is known as the “Son of Blackbird”, so this was a generational public relations moment for the Darkstar program and Lockheed Martin Skunk Works.
Doubling down on speed
The SR-71 in its heyday was an ultra fast, high-flying machine, but the stealthy SR-72 might eventually reach speeds of Mach-6, nearly twice the velocity of the SR-71. The Darkstar will be unmanned and capable of gathering the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data expected from a spy plane, but it might also have ground strike features.
Mix that with hypersonic flight, and you have a noteworthy craft for the U.S. Air Force.
Lockheed has developed a combined cycle dual-mode engine that has ramjet features. Dual mode means that a turbine engine cycle provides thrust from takeoff to Mach-3, at which point the ramjet takes over to reach Mach-6. The idea is to outrun enemy warplanes and air defenses.
Engineers from Skunk Works designed the version of the Darkstar that appeared in the film. While that was a fictional prop, rumor has it the Chinese were interested in getting a glimpse of the mockup before the movie was even released, because it seemed so real.
Skunk Works has been working on the SR-72 since 2013 and tested its engines in 2017. It may reach initial operational capability by 2030, with full service in the Air Force following a few years later. The unmanned bird is likely to be autonomous and could see service as a hypersonic bomber while flying out ahead of the B-21 Raider and the F-35 Lightning II.
High Hopes and Hollywood Dreams for the Darkstar
Hypersonic weapon technology should be mature by the time the Son of Blackbird is ready to fly regularly. It will need to be, because, traveling at Mach-6, the Darkstar will need to launch hypersonic weapons. There are additional challenges: Performing turns and opening bomb bay doors will be difficult and will require a significant amount of ingenuity from designers and engineers. The shape of the airplane will be interesting. Military Factory describes concept art for the SR-72 as having “underslung twin air intakes, slim low-mounted delta wing assemblies, and a single vertical tail fin.” The SR-72 will not have a cockpit, and all avionics and controls will be inside the fuselage. The SR-71 could reach 85,000 feet, and the Son of Blackbird could fly even higher – perhaps even reaching near space altitudes. While the Hollywood buzz is exciting for the SR-72 program, the Son of Blackbird still needs a lot of work, and a lot of funds. The hype could run into delays and cost overruns any year.
The speed and altitude goals are ambitious, and the unmanned features will have to be integrated with manned airplanes.
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Rickards - >>> Putin Doesn’t Bluff
BY JAMES RICKARDS
DECEMBER 6, 2022
https://dailyreckoning.com/putin-doesnt-bluff/
Putin Doesn’t Bluff
The war in Ukraine has been in a partial hiatus for the past two months. But that hiatus is coming to an end as Russia prepares its next move. Today, we’re looking ahead to what’s coming next.
And here’s a hint: We could be entering a very dangerous period.
First off, the situation on the ground in Ukraine is best understood as a competition between the narrative and reality.
The narrative consists of what you hear from mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, and official sources in the U.K., France, Germany and both EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The narrative says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, AFU, have beaten back Russian forces and reoccupied Kherson, which lies strategically on the Dnipro River, Kyiv’s main access to the Black Sea.
Based on these advances, the narrative says that Russia is in retreat, Russian troops are demoralized, Putin is in jeopardy of being replaced and complete victory for Ukraine is just a matter of time.
The narrative is then used as a basis for increased financial aid from the United States (over $60 billion and growing) and increased weapons shipments from NATO members.
Narrative vs. Reality
But as I’ve explained recently, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is almost completely at odds with the Western narrative.
It’s true that Ukraine made recent advances in the east, but they were against lightly defended Russian positions on or near open terrain.
Much has been made of Ukraine’s retaking of Kherson, but Russia regarded it as a city of little strategic value. Rather than waste resources fighting for it, they withdrew.
The Russians also let the Ukrainians have the open land, which will later become a killing field for Russian artillery. That’s the reality you’re not being told.
In the words of retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor:
The Biden administration repeatedly commits the unpardonable sin in a democratic society of refusing to tell the American people the truth: Contrary to the Western media’s popular “Ukrainian victory” narrative, which blocks any information that contradicts it, Ukraine is not winning and will not win this war. Months of heavy Ukrainian casualties, resulting from an endless series of pointless attacks against Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, have dangerously weakened Ukrainian forces.
Russia Is Preparing to Lower the Hammer
In the meantime, Russia is preparing to launch a massive counteroffensive.
It’s completed its 300,000-man mobilization, with over 180,000 of those troops now deployed behind Russian lines in combat formations. The remaining 120,000 troops will arrive soon. This brings total Russian strength up to about 30 divisions.
Once again, Col. Macgregor:
The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities…The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened nine months ago on Feb. 24, 2022.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian strength has been greatly diminished due to high casualty rates and being stretched thin.
Then What?
If successful, the upcoming counteroffensive would give Russia control of the entire coast from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It would also give Russia control of the Dnipro River, which separates the western part of Ukraine from the eastern part and connects Kyiv to the Black Sea.
Ukraine would be left as a rump state between Kyiv and Lviv. Almost all the industrial, technological and natural resource capacity of former Ukraine would be under Russian control.
Whether any of this succeeds remains to be seen. Still, it is definitely coming, and the situation will grow more violent and chaotic.
The question then becomes, would the U.S. stand by and watch Russia defeat Ukraine militarily? Will it become more directly involved in ways that could risk actual conflict with Russia?
After all, the U.S. is essentially fighting a proxy war against Russia. Ukraine is merely a means to an end as far as the U.S. goes. The U.S. has committed significant resources to defeat Russia, and a Russian victory would further undermine U.S. credibility in the world.
The chances of escalation are therefore significant.
The Greatest Risk of Nuclear Confrontation Since the Cuban Missile Crisis
Depending on how events unfold, the world is potentially facing the greatest risk of nuclear confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A limited nuclear war is a real possibility in the not-distant future.
Why do I say that?
U.S. elites have started psychological operations (psyops) aimed at Putin with nuclear weapons as the bait. They claim that Putin has threatened to use tactical weapons in Ukraine and possibly other parts of Eastern and Central Europe.
That’s a lie; Putin never said that. When asked, both Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said that if attacked, Russia would defend itself by all means necessary including the possible use of nuclear weapons. That’s not news. That has been Russian or Soviet policy since the early 1950s.
This lie about Putin’s intentions quickly morphed into another psyop about a “false flag” operation. That’s when you stage an attack disguised to look like an attack by your enemy in order to justify your own “retaliation,” which you were planning all along.
Nukes, “Dirty Bombs” and False Flags
Recently the narrative that Putin would use nukes or conduct a false flag operation morphed into a related narrative that Putin would use a “dirty bomb.” In effect, Putin would detonate a dirty bomb and then blame the Ukrainians and Americans. A dirty bomb is not a nuclear weapon, but it does employ radioactive material wrapped around conventional explosives.
When detonated, the radioactive material is dispersed and can poison or kill any people or livestock in the area. It’s akin to what happened at Chernobyl in 1986. That nuclear reactor meltdown was an accident, not a bomb. But the effect of spreading radioactive material was similar to a dirty bomb.
Not to be outdone, the Russians countered by saying the U.S. or Ukraine would conduct the false flag by detonating a dirty bomb and then blaming the Russians as an excuse to escalate Western involvement in Ukraine. At this point, we have both sides warning the other side will conduct a false flag with a dirty bomb in order to justify their own pre-planned escalation.
If a dirty bomb does go off, each side will blame the other and the truth will be a casualty of war.
Putin Doesn’t Bluff
It’s difficult to know what comes next. It could be that Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon. Russia might detonate a dirty bomb and blame Ukraine. The U.S. may use a tactical nuclear weapon if it suspects Russia is about to do so, an example of a first-strike advantage. The U.S. may detonate a dirty bomb and blame Russia in a classic false flag operation.
Regardless, it’s not difficult to know that we’re on a path to nuclear war.
We also know that Putin doesn’t bluff. When George W. Bush raised the issue of Ukrainian entry into NATO, Putin invaded Georgia. When Obama staged a coup against a pro-Russian president in Kyiv, Putin annexed Crimea. When Biden green-lighted a Ukrainian assault in Donbas, Putin invaded Ukraine.
Again, Putin doesn’t bluff. It would be a great blunder to believe otherwise. We’re sleepwalking down a road that could potentially lead to Armageddon.
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>>> Sorry, Russia's Winning the War
BY JAMES RICKARDS
DECEMBER 1, 2022
https://dailyreckoning.com/sorry-russias-winning-the-war/
Sorry, Russia's Winning the War
Here’s the mainstream narrative:The status of the war in Ukraine is best understood as a competition between the narrative and reality. The narrative consists of what you hear from mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon and official sources in the U.K., France, Germany and both EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The reality consists of what’s actually going on based on the best available sources. Let’s consider the narrative first.
According to the White House, EU and NATO, things are going relatively well for Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have advanced in eastern Ukraine along a line that runs parallel to the Russian fortified lines between Donetsk and Luhansk.
Ukraine has also reoccupied the regional capital of Kherson, which lies strategically on the Dnieper River, and is Kyiv’s main access to the Black Sea and international trade.
Based on these advances, the narrative says that Russia is in retreat, Russian troops are demoralized, Putin is in jeopardy of being replaced and complete victory for Ukraine is just a matter of time.
The narrative is then used as a basis for increased financial aid from the United States (over $60 billion and growing) and increased weapons shipments from NATO members. President Zelenskyy touts these accomplishments in his customary green T-shirt on video presentations to the U.N., G20 and other international audiences.
Here’s the reality…
The actual situation on the battlefield is almost completely at odds with the narrative. Ukraine did make advances in the east, but they were against lightly defended Russian positions on or near open terrain.
The Russians organized an orderly retreat to fortified lines and let the Ukrainians have the open land. Russia withdrew from Kherson because they regarded it as a nonstrategic salient.
They withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River while allowing Ukrainian troops to reoccupy the center of Kherson. Russia avoided a fight over a city of little strategic value while retaining a chokehold on river traffic from the east bank. Russia regarded Kherson as a nonstrategic salient.
The Russians withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River while allowing Ukrainian troops to reoccupy the center of Kherson. Russia avoided a fight over a city of little strategic value while retaining a chokehold on river traffic from the east bank.
The Russians essentially organized an orderly retreat to fortified lines and let the Ukrainians have the open land, which will become a killing field for Russian artillery.
Even with that withdrawal, almost all the industrial, technological and natural resource capacity of former Ukraine is in the Donbas now under Russian control.
In the meantime, Russia is now preparing to launch a massive counteroffensive. Russia has completed its 300,000-person mobilization. Over 180,000 of those troops are now deployed behind Russian lines in combat formations. The remaining 120,000 troops will arrive soon. This brings total Russian strength up to about 30 divisions.
They are being supplemented with Iranian drones, a major force multiplier. The major objectives of this counteroffensive are Kharkiv in the northeast, Odesa in the southwest, and Zaporizhzhia in the center part of the country on the Dnieper River.
Completion of these missions will give Russia control of the entire coast from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It will also give Russia control of the Dnieper River and the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
Russia will incorporate all of this territory into the Russian Federation and will likely move further into Moldova to reunite with a pro-Russian corridor called Transnistria with its capital in Tiraspol. At that point, Russian strategic objectives will be complete. Ukraine will be left as a rump state between Kyiv and Lviv.
Ukrainian officials are preparing for a brutal winter ahead by evacuating civilians from cities likely to be the scene of new battles with Russian troops. These Ukrainian expectations seem at odds with the mainstream narrative of victorious Ukrainians on the offensive against demoralized Russian troops.
Meanwhile, AFU strength has been greatly diminished due to high casualty rates. Meanwhile, advanced weapons supplied to the AFU will be of little use because the AFU has not been trained to use them and there are logistical obstacles to moving them to the front lines.
Many so-called Ukrainian troops are actually Polish forces in Ukrainian uniforms. Again, Russian forces are well-rested and well-supplied, and are being supplemented with Iranian drones, a major force multiplier.
The economic impact of these developments is momentous. Biden has vowed that the sanctions will not be lifted until Russia leaves Ukraine. But Russia is not leaving. This implies that sanctions will continue indefinitely.
The sanctions have had little economic impact on Russia. But the effect on Europe and the U.S. has been devastating including energy shortages, inflation and supply chain disruption. These effects will persist and cause the EU and U.S. to fall into a severe recession in the first half of 2023.
These effects will persist and cause the EU and U.S. to fall into a severe recession in the first half of 2023.
The dollar will remain strong for reasons independent of the war in Ukraine, having to do with a growing global liquidity crisis. Stocks will fall significantly due to recessionary conditions.
Bonds will perform well as interest rates decline alongside economic decline. Gold will remain strong as more countries look for ways to avoid U.S. economic sanctions and as central banks diversify away from dollars toward gold.
Brace yourself for more volatility as we head toward the winter months. Moving cash to the sidelines is a prudent thing to do.
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Rickards - >>> We Need to Talk About Ukraine
BY JAMES RICKARDS
DECEMBER 1, 2022
https://dailyreckoning.com/we-need-to-talk-about-ukraine/
We Need to Talk About Ukraine
There’s plenty to discuss, from the Fed to inflation to the supply chain issues.
But we need to talk about Ukraine. Yes, that’s right. We need to talk about Ukraine. That’s because nothing is more important in the world right now.
Why? Because Ukraine is the spider in the spider web of the global economy.
Ukraine affects geopolitics, geo-economics, energy and food shortages, supply chains and the desire of many countries to escape U.S. dollar hegemony. It may even potentially involve nuclear war.
That’s why the United States has taken such a strong post-Cold War interest in Ukraine — a region of Eastern Europe no American president would risk a drop of American blood over until the Berlin Wall fell.
Russian success in Ukraine would lead to a new international monetary system through its allies in the BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union.
On the flip side, Russian failure in Ukraine would lead to a strengthened world economic order with the U.S. firmly in charge. NATO would be ascendant.
Where things stand today, either outcome is still possible. Much will depend upon the next few months. With that as background, let’s dive into the analysis…
First, a note on sourcing. Winston Churchill famously said, “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.” That was true in World War II, and it’s no less true today.
The U.S., U.K. and EU will lie. So will Ukraine. So will Russia. That’s our starting place in any analysis.
If I read something in The New York Times. I can be quite certain it’s a lie. That’s to be expected. The New York Times is nothing more than a channel for CIA and MI6 deception.
Still, lies are valuable. They reveal what the sources are really concerned about. If you weren’t concerned about something, why bother to lie about it? Based on the lie, you can know what matters.
From there, you can use inferential methods to assume the topic of the lie is important and the opposite of the lie is probably true.
You can update your inference with what’s called all-source fusion; basically, using other intelligence sources to tweak the initial inference in one direction or another.
If enough evidence accumulates, you quickly get to a point where you can give a high probability to a certain state of affairs, even if it’s quite different from what the media are telling you.
All-source fusion can include comments from retired military and intelligence officers who have good contacts among former colleagues and who are not afraid to speak the truth because their careers are no longer at risk.
It can also include informed sources from neutral countries like Switzerland, and former U.N. peacekeepers who were on the front lines in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Sometimes we even gain insights from what’s called pocket litter. These are scraps of paper or other objects from the clothing of prisoners or casualties that may have maps, phone numbers, notes and other commentaries on the war that provide insights not otherwise available.
But pocket litter can be used for counterintelligence. Sometimes a body is left with fake maps and battle plans in the jacket pockets intended to be discovered by the enemy.
Now you see why intelligence work is referred to as the wilderness of mirrors. You can’t trust anything to be as it appears.
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>>> Blasts at military airbases deep inside Russia were Ukrainian drone attacks, Moscow says
NBC News
by Mithil Aggarwal and Artem Grudinin
December 5, 2022
https://news.yahoo.com/blasts-rock-military-airbases-deep-161131729.html
Ukraine was behind explosions that rocked two airbases deep inside Russia and killed three military personnel, Moscow said Monday.
The blasts at sites hundreds of miles from the border between the two countries were the result of a Ukrainian drone attack, Russia's defense ministry said, potentially signaling a new ability for Kyiv to strike far from the front lines of the conflict.
Two aircraft were lightly damaged, the ministry said in a statement, with four other people wounded.
"The Kyiv regime attempted to attack by Soviet-made UAVs the military airfields at Dyagilevo in the Ryazan region and Engels in the Saratov region in an effort to disable Russian long-range aircraft," it said, adding that the UAVS were intercepted by air defense while flying at a low altitude.
NBC News has not verified the claims and Ukraine has not taken responsibility. Both airbases are located more than 300 miles from the border.
The mysterious explosions hit bases involved in launching attacks against Ukraine early Monday just hours before the latest barrage of Russian airstrikes forced residents in the capital, Kyiv, and cities across the country to take shelter as sirens blared.
Power and water outages were felt from Sumy in the northeast to Odesa in the southwest while at least two people were killed in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the president's office, said in a Telegram post.
Russia's defense ministry said it had launched the strikes "despite the attempts of the Kyiv regime to disrupt the combat work of Russian Long-Range Aviation with a terrorist act."
Moscow has consistently denied targeting civilians, but while such strikes have become an increasingly common feature of the Kremlin’s war, blasts deep inside Russian territory are more unusual.
Ukraine has not taken responsibility, but officials made vague references in social media posts that offered hints the incident could be the work of its forces.
“The Earth is round — discovery made by Galileo. Astronomy was not studied in Kremlin, giving preference to court astrologers. If it was, they would know: if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point,” said presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak in a tweet.
Russian authorities said earlier they were investigating media reports about multiple explosions at the Engels airbase near the city of Saratov in southwestern Russia. It houses the nuclear-capable Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers that have been involved in carrying out strikes against Ukraine, according to the AP.
“There’s information about a loud explosion and a flash in the early morning in Engels spreading on social networks and the media,” said Saratov governor Roman Busargin in a post on Telegram. “There is no reason to worry. Not a single object of civil infrastructure was damaged,” he said.
Separately, a fuel truck exploded at an airfield near the western Russian city of Ryazan, an emergency services spokesperson was quoted as saying by state news agency RIA Novosti. At least three servicemen were killed and three others injured, and a plane was also damaged, they said.
The base houses long-range flight tankers that serve to refuel bombers in the air, according to the AP.
Ryazan officials have not commented on the blast and NBC News has not verified the reports.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that President Vladimir Putin “regularly receives information” when asked about the blasts in his daily press call.
“Engels airfield is one of the most important bases of Russian air forces,” said Ukrainian interior ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko in a tweet. “Two regiments of strategic bombers are stationed here which are part of Russia’s aerial nuclear deterrence tactics,” he said.
Moscow has lost over 60-wing aircrafts since the war began on Feb. 24, the U.K. defense ministry said Monday in its intelligence update, adding that aerial missions were down from 300 per day in March to just tens a day.
In a separate tweet, it also said Ukraine had regained control of more than half of its territory Russia captured since February.
Analysts said it was unclear that the new wave of Russian strikes were in any way retaliation for the blasts at the airbases.
“They are going to the attack the country as much as possible,” Rajan Menon, a director at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, told NBC News in a call from Kyiv. “Had it not been for the strike on the base, they would have found other reasons to do so,” he said.
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>>> Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
By TARA COPP,
Associated Press
12-2-222
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-debuts-its-new-stealth-bomber-the-b-21-raider/ar-AA14ONvn?OCID=ansmsnnews11
PALMDALE , Calif. (AP) — America’s newest nuclear stealth bomber made its debut Friday after years of secret development and as part of the Pentagon’s answer to rising concerns over a future conflict with China.
The B-21 Raider stealth bomber is unveiled at Northrop Grumman Friday, Dec. 2, 2022, in Palmdale, Calif. America’s newest nuclear stealth bomber made its debut Friday after years of secret development and as part of the Pentagon’s answer to rising concerns over a future conflict with China. The B-21 Raider is the first new American bomber aircraft in more than 30 years. Almost every aspect of the program is classified.
As evening fell over the Air Force’s Plant 42 in Palmdale, the public got its first glimpse of the Raider in a tightly controlled ceremony. It started with a flyover of the three bombers still in service: the B-52 Stratofortress, the B-1 Lancer and the B-2 Spirit. Then the hangar doors slowly opened and the B-21 was towed partially out of the building.
“This isn’t just another airplane,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. “It’s the embodiment of America’s determination to defend the republic that we all love.”
The B-21 is part of the Pentagon’s efforts to modernize all three legs of its nuclear triad, which includes silo-launched nuclear ballistic missiles and submarine-launched warheads, as it shifts from the counterterrorism campaigns of recent decades to meet China’s rapid military modernization.
China is on track to have 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035, and its gains in hypersonics, cyber warfare and space capabilities present “the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S. national security and the free and open international system,” the Pentagon said this week in its annual China report.
”We needed a new bomber for the 21st Century that would allow us to take on much more complicated threats, like the threats that we fear we would one day face from China, Russia, ” said Deborah Lee James, the Air Force secretary when the Raider contract was announced in 2015.
While the Raider may resemble the B-2, once you get inside, the similarities stop, said Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman Corp., which is building the bomber.
“The way it operates internally is extremely advanced compared to the B-2, because the technology has evolved so much in terms of the computing capability that we can now embed in the software of the B-21,” Warden said.
Other changes include advanced materials used in coatings to make the bomber harder to detect, Austin said.
“Fifty years of advances in low-observable technology have gone into this aircraft,” Austin said. “Even the most sophisticated air defense systems will struggle to detect a B-21 in the sky.”
Other advances likely include new ways to control electronic emissions, so the bomber could spoof adversary radars and disguise itself as another object, and use of new propulsion technologies, several defense analysts said.
“It is incredibly low observability,” Warden said. “You’ll hear it, but you really won’t see it.”
Six Raiders are in production. The Air Force plans to build 100 that can deploy either nuclear weapons or conventional bombs and can be used with or without a human crew. Both the Air Force and Northrop also point to the Raider’s relatively quick development: The bomber went from contract award to debut in seven years. Other new fighter and ship programs have taken decades.
The cost of the bombers is unknown. The Air Force previously put the price at an average cost of $550 million each in 2010 dollars — roughly $753 million today — but it’s unclear how much is actually being spent. The total will depend on how many bombers the Pentagon buys.
“We will soon fly this aircraft, test it, and then move it into production. And we will build the bomber force in numbers suited to the strategic environment ahead,” Austin said.
The undisclosed cost troubles government watchdogs.
“It might be a big challenge for us to do our normal analysis of a major program like this,” said Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight. “It’s easy to say that the B-21 is still on schedule before it actually flies. Because it’s only when one of these programs goes into the actual testing phase when real problems are discovered." That, he said, is when schedules start to slip and costs rise.
The B-2 was also envisioned to be a fleet of more than 100 aircraft, but the Air Force built only 21, due to cost overruns and a changed security environment after the Soviet Union fell. Fewer than that are ready to fly on any given day due to the significant maintenance needs of the aging bomber.
The B-21 Raider, which takes its name from the 1942 Doolittle Raid over Tokyo, will be slightly smaller than the B-2 to increase its range, Warden said. It won’t make its first flight until 2023. However, Warden said Northrop Grumman has used advanced computing to test the bomber’s performance using a digital twin, a virtual replica of the one unveiled Friday.
Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota will house the bomber’s first training program and squadron, though the bombers are also expected to be stationed at bases in Texas and Missouri.
U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, a Republican of South Dakota, led the state’s bid to host the bomber program. In a statement, he called it “the most advanced weapon system ever developed by our country to defend ourselves and our allies.”
Northrop Grumman has also incorporated maintenance lessons learned from the B-2, Warden said.
In October 2001, B-2 pilots set a record when they flew 44 hours straight to drop the first bombs in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks. The B-2 often does long round-trip missions because there are few hangars globally that can accommodate its wingspan, which limits where it can land for maintenance. The hangars also must be air-conditioned because the Spirit’s windows don’t open and .
The new Raider will also get new hangars to accommodate its size and complexity, Warden said.
However, with the Raider’s extended range, ’it won’t need to be based in-theater,” Austin said. “It won’t need logistical support to hold any target at risk.”
A final noticeable difference was in the debut itself. While both went public in Palmdale, the B-2 was rolled outdoors in 1988 amid much public fanfare. Given advances in surveillance satellites and cameras, the Raider was just partially exposed, keeping its sensitive propulsion systems and sensors under the hangar and protected from overhead eyes.
“The magic of the platform,” Warden said, “is what you don’t see.”
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>>> 3 Defense ETFs to Trade North Korean Uncertainty
Investopedia
By TIM SMITH
November 18, 2022
https://www.investopedia.com/news/3-defense-etfs-trade-north-korean-uncertainty/?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral
Uncertainty over North Korea and the U.S. government's military spending keeps defense stocks interesting. The Standard and Poor's (S&P) Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index is down -6.51% year to date as of Nov 18, 2022.
This compares with a negative return of -17.20% for the S&P 500 Index over the same period.
Investors who want exposure to the defense sector in the continuing period of U.S./North Korean geopolitical uncertainty and defense spending should consider adding one of these three exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to their portfolio.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) tracks the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index and has a YTD return of -8.50%.
The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index and has a three-year YTD return of -5.61%.
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA) tracks the SPADE Defense Index. It has a YTD return of -6.81%.
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)
The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF launched in 2011 and seeks to replicate the returns of the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index. The fund does this by investing the majority of its assets in securities that make up the benchmark index, such as stocks in the aerospace and defense sectors. The fund's top five holdings account for 20.76% of its portfolio. These holdings are Axon Enterprise (AXON), Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (AJRD), and Boeing (BA).
The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF has assets under management (AUM) of $1.328 billion. It has a low expense ratio of 0.35%, which compares with the category average of 0.46%. As of Nov. 18, the fund has a year-to-date (YTD) return of -8.50%, but it has also performed well over the longer term, with a five-year annualized return of 6.32%.
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
Created in 2006, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF aims to match the returns of the Dow Jones U.S.
Select Aerospace & Defense Index.
It attempts to achieve this by investing a minimum of 80% of its AUM in securities that comprise the underlying index.
These are securities of companies that manufacture, assemble and distribute aircraft and aircraft parts. The Boeing Company (BA) has a weighting of 8.86%. Other key holdings include Raytheon Technologies (RTX) at 20.69% and Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) at 16.54%.
The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF is the largest defense fund in its category, with $4.27 billion in net assets. The fund’s three- and five-year annualized returns are -5.61% and 1.63%, respectively. The ETF was trading at $108.90 on Nov. 18, 2022, the top-end of its 52-week trading range of $102 and $113.67. ITA has a dividend yield of 0.9% and an expense ratio of 0.39%.
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA)
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF was formed in 2005 and attempts to provide similar returns to the SPADE Defense Index. To do this, the fund invests in constituents of the benchmark index. These are companies that develop, manufacture, operate and support defense, military, and aerospace operations. PPA has 56 stocks in its portfolio. The ETF's top three holdings of Lockheed Martin, Boeing (BA), and Raytheon Technologies have a cumulative weighting of 21.40%.
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF is the most expensive of the three funds discussed, with an expense ratio of 0.58%.
It is similar in size to XAR, with AUM of $1.7 billion.
This average-rated-risk fund has a five-year annualized return of 3.14%, a three-year annualized return of -4.06%, and a YTD return of -6.81% as of Nov. 18, 2022.
What Is the Best Defense ETF?
If rated by year-to-date returns, the best-performing defense ETF is Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), followed by iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA).
Is There a Defense Sector ETF?
There are seven defense sector ETFs to choose from—Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN), SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR), SPDR S&P Kensho Future Security ETF (FITE), and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), and First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL).
Does Vanguard Have a Defense ETF?
Vanguard does not have a defense ETF as of November 2022.
What ETF has Lockheed Martin?
All six defense ETFs include Lockheed Martin. Hundreds of other ETFs hold Lockheed Martin, including Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS), iShares Global Industrials ETF (EXI), and Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL).
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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal to Add Internationally Accepted OC Instructor Program to the Company’s Vast Police Training Menu
News Source: https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15936654&guid=RnnwkeLsyoDWJth
SARNIA, ON / July 7, 2022 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK: LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide is pleased to announce that Ed Bogats, Jr. PhD, FBINA 222nd Session, will bring his world class OC Instructor certification exclusively under the Lamperd Less Lethal banner. Dr. Bogats, Jr. felt that this was a great time to fully align his programming with Lamperd because of their innovative new OC product line. The program will be made available for Police, Corrections and Security worldwide in the following formats;
1. In person
2. Via correspondence
3. Via Webinar during live time
The certification will be valid for three years upon completion. Dr. Bogats, Jr. feels that since he has already had a 25 year history of working with Lamperd Less Lethal conducting training for them, it only made sense to bring this program in line with its current mission. Dr. Bogats, Jr. had spent the past 25 years conducting all instructor level training for Fox Labs International which was recently sold. So, keeping with the Lamperd mission of providing state of the art training based upon the industry standard, the programs will become available immediately.
Training announcements will be posted on the Lamperd website under the Training Tab. All inquiries for training should be address to:
Ed Bogats, Jr. PhD, FBINA 222nd Session
(412) 855-7964
Bullitt67@verizon.net
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and interlocking riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements:This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/llli_lamperd_lesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: Https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli
>>> US and South Korea begin biggest joint military drills in years
Independent
by Alisha Rahaman Sarkar
August 22, 2022
https://news.yahoo.com/us-south-korea-begin-biggest-120802379.html
The US and South Korea on Monday began their largest joint military drill in years in a show of their preparedness amid heightened tensions with North Korea.
The Ulchi Freedom Shield annual exercises will involve aircraft, warships, tanks and potentially thousands of troops before concluding on 1 September.
South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, vowed to “normalise” the combined exercises and boost deterrence against the North as it continues to threaten to upgrade its nuclear capabilities.
The South had separately launched the four-day Ulchi civil defence drills on Monday, officials said, in an effort to boost government readiness. With the changing pattern of war, which now involves cyber safety and supply chain, military and civil exercises will help the country be prepared, Mr Yoon said.
The civil defence exercises will reportedly include simulating joint attacks, front-line reinforcements of arms and fuel and removals of weapons of mass destruction.
The troops will also undergo drone attack training along with new developments in warfare used during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Without revealing the number of troops participating in joint defence exercises, the South has portrayed it as a message of strength, days after Seoul’s defence ministry said the Ulchi Freedom Shield “normalises” large-scale training and field exercises between the allies.
This year marks the largest joint drill between the countries since 2017 after being scaled back because of Covid and the South’s efforts to renew talks with North Korea.
The South Korean defence ministry claimed the allies would stage 11 field training programmes involving thousands of soldiers this summer.
Pyongyang, however, called the joint drills a rehearsal for invasion and fired two cruise missiles from the west coast last week when Washington and Seoul kicked off their preliminary training for the exercises.
The drills commenced a week after Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, dismissed the South’s proposal of economic benefits in exchange for denuclearisation steps.
She described the South Korean president’s proposal as “foolish” and “audacious”, stressing the North had no intentions to give away the arsenal used by her brother as a guarantee for survival.
She had also criticised Mr Yoon for continuing military exercises with the US and monitoring the North’s missile activity.
The North Korean leader had earlier warned of “deadly” retaliation against South Korea after a recent Covid outbreak, which Pyongyang claimed was caused by leaflets and other objects floated by southern activists.
North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests this year, involving over 30 ballistic launches, including the country’s first demonstrations of intercontinental ballistic missiles in nearly five years.
The rapid missile tests have prompted concerns over the North conducting its first nuclear test in five years.
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>>> China to Join Russia Military Exercises as U.S. Rivals Deepen Ties
The Wall Street Journal
by James T. Areddy, Ann M. Simmons
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-to-join-russia-military-exercises-as-us-rivals-deepen-ties/ar-AA10LyBL?li=BBnb7Kz
China’s People’s Liberation Army said it is set to join military exercises led by Russia in the latest demonstration of partnership between the two U.S. rivals.
Building on a “no limits” pact their presidents signed this year, the Russian and Chinese militaries are expected to drill side-by-side starting later this month in the Russian Far East, according to China’s Ministry of Defense. The exercises will mark their second joint show of force in the region this year after bombers from each country in May conducted a 13-hour drill close enough to Japan and South Korea that those nations scrambled jet fighters, at a time when President Biden was visiting Tokyo.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense didn’t immediately respond to a request for confirmation of whether China would participate in the exercises, which are scheduled Aug. 30 to Sept. 5.
Last month, the Russian ministry said units of its Eastern Military District, in the nation’s Far East near the borders of China and North Korea, as well as airborne, long range aviation and military transport aviation personnel and equipment, would participate in training maneuvers along with military contingents from other states it didn’t name. Reports, including China’s Defense Ministry statement, said India, Belarus, Tajikistan, Mongolia and other nations would join, though Russia hasn’t confirmed the participants.
The Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February, and recent Chinese live fire exercises around Taiwan, have elevated military tensions this year and put both Moscow and Beijing on the receiving end of criticism from Washington. Rather than formal treaty allies, China and Russia appear aligned primarily over shared interests, including a desire to check global dominance of the U.S., according to analysts.
A Russia specialist at Georgetown University, Angela Stent, said the exercises are likely to be scrutinized for signs of Russia’s fighting capability considering its troubles prosecuting the Ukraine war. “The message will be, we have been criticized and sanctioned by the West but we have a range of other countries that are partners. We are not isolated,” she said, noting that position will be enhanced by the participation of both China and India.
China has declined to criticize or publicly endorse Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which began shortly after Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Beijing and they signed a lengthy joint statement that rejected the U.S.-led global political order. After Beijing practiced a possible military blockade of Taiwan this month in response to a visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Kremlin blamed the U.S. for heightening tensions.
Mr. Putin this week called Mrs. Pelosi’s visit a “thoroughly planned provocation” by the U.S. to sow chaos. The remarks were welcomed by China’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday, where a spokesman said they demonstrate “high-level strategic coordination between China and Russia, and the firm support the two countries have rendered each other on issues concerning their core interests.”
Clear limits exist in the Russia-China relationship, which has often been deeply troubled in the past. Beijing has criticized Western governments for cutting trade relations with Russia in an effort to penalize Moscow for the Ukraine invasion and continued to buy its energy exports, but many of China’s biggest government companies have also appeared to quietly abide by some of the sanctions.
The Russian and Chinese militaries have practiced together on various occasions in recent years, often sparking protests from the U.S. and other nations. Details are limited about the coming military exercises, which are known as Vostok 2022, referring to the Russian word for East. Moscow hosts similar large-scale wargames annually and rotates them between different regions.
China’s three-sentence statement said the coming event aims to deepen practical and friendly cooperation between participating countries and is unrelated to the “current international and regional situation,” likely referring to Ukraine and Taiwan.
They follow a series of similar military exercises in Asia, where China’s air force in recent days has flown alongside Thai jets and U.S. Army troops have practiced in Indonesia with allied forces, including Australia and Japan.
When Russia hosted Vostok exercises in 2018, it described the scale as unprecedented since the Soviet era. It said 300,000 troops participated along with 1,000 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, 80 ships, and 36,000 tanks, armored and other vehicles.
As a first-time participant in the Vostok exercises in 2018, China said it sent 3,200 soldiers, along with more than 1,000 pieces of weaponry and 30 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.
Thomas Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Russia specialist on the National Security Council, said the actual number of combatants in such exercises tend to be smaller than the advertised numbers, but in 2018 the militaries did demonstrate a degree of interoperability, such as in the command structure and sharing communications. The question now, he said: “Is this an exercise that shows the two militaries can fight together in a significant way or is it largely a propaganda show?”
Russia’s Defense Ministry has sought to play down the participation of other states in the coming exercises and wave off doubt about its military capabilities as it suffers the high costs of prosecuting its war in Ukraine. In July, Russian officials warned “that a number of foreign media are spreading inaccurate information about alleged mobilization activities.” They said that only part of Russia’s armed forces was involved in Moscow’s military action in Ukraine and the number was sufficient enough to fulfill Mr. Putin’s goals in the campaign.
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>>> South Korea's new hardline on North Korea may mean the end of its plans to build its first aircraft carrier
Business Insider
7-21-22
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-koreas-new-hardline-on-north-korea-may-mean-the-end-of-its-plans-to-build-its-first-aircraft-carrier/ar-AAZPP4m?li=BBnb7Kz
South Korea's new president is shifting the country's security focus to threats from North Korea.
That shift, plus other priorities, mean plans for South Korea's first aircraft carrier may be scrapped.
It has been an eventful year for aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific region.
China recently launched its newest, most advanced flattop, while India's first domestically built carrier is about to enter service. Japan is also converting its second Izumo-class vessel into a full-fledged carrier, which will add a second flattop to its fleet.
South Korea's navy has expertise and resources on par with those navies, but Seoul's ambitions to field its own aircraft carrier may soon be scrapped.
After years of debate about acquiring a carrier, detailed plans for a South Korean light carrier were unveiled last year. But President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, looks set to cancel the program, known as CVX, in order to invest in weapons better suited to counter the threat posed by North Korea.
South Korea's navy has been working toward achieving blue-water status since the early 2000s. Over the past two decades, it has transformed into a first-rate navy, acquiring advanced vessels like the Sejong the Great-class destroyers, Son Won-il-class submarines, and Dokdo-class amphibious assault ships.
The CVX program, championed by Yoon's predecessor, Moon Jae-in, was to be the latest step in that transformation. The program calls for the construction of a single light carrier that displaces at least 30,000 tons, carries 20 F-35B fighters, and could be commissioned by 2033.
Two designs have been proposed by Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, both of which have contracts with companies that have built carriers for European navies.
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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal and Gokser Makine Sanayi to Present Advanced Security Products at SEDEC Defense Exposition, June 28-30, 2022 in Ankara, Turkey
Gokser Fully Sponsoring Lamperd Presence at SEDEC-2022 Under Joint Marketing Agreement
NEWS: SOURCE:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15906817&guid=VXnwkKDmXUnSJth
SARNIA, ON / June 23, 2022 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK: LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, has been invited by major defense industry company Gokser Makine Sanayi (http://www.gokser.com/) to present Lamperd products at the SEDEC-2022 International Defense Exposition held June 28-30, 2022 in Ankara, Turkey.
Gokser is fully sponsoring all costs of Lamperd’s presence at the SEDEC-2022 event in support of the joint marketing agreement which the companies have in place. Under the terms of this agreement, Lamperd is the exclusive source of less lethal security products to be marketed by Gokser in the Republic of Turkey and other countries around the world. A Lamperd sales representative has been flown to Turkey and will be on hand at the SEDEC-2022 event to directly present the Lamperd product line and hold marketing negotiations for perspective buyers in conjunction with Gokser representatives.
SEDEC-2022 will bring together more than 100 companies from 50 countries operating in the fields of homeland security, border security, homeland security systems and defense equipment. Delegations from Azerbaijan, the US, Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, Pakistan, France and other countries will take part in this international event. For more detailed information on SEDEC -2022 visit: https://www.sedecturkey.com/en.
Barry Lamperd, CEO of Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. commented: “The invitation from Gokser Makine Sanayi to present our extensive line of less lethal security solutions at the upcoming SEDEC-2022 international defense exposition is a great opportunity for our joint marketing program. Recently we have been in close communication with Gokser’s management regarding expanded plans for marketing the Lamperd product line to security service customers in the Republic of Turkey and other regions. The need for these types of products has been surging due to ongoing crisis situations around the world. We are well positioned with Gokser to meet this demand for helping security forces keep order and save lives. Lamperd is very fortunate to have Gokser as an international marketing partner and a financial sponsor of our presence at major defense expositions like SEDEC-2022. We will provide further announcements of the Lamperd-Gokser relationship as developments occur.”
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and interlocking riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements:This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/llli_lamperd_lesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: Https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli
>>> NATO to dramatically increase forces on high alert to over 300,000 from 40,000 amid Russia threat
Sky News
Deborah Haynes
6-27-22
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-to-dramatically-increase-forces-on-high-alert-to-over-300-000-from-40-000-amid-russia-threat/ar-AAYUTAw?ocid=uxbndlbing
NATO will significantly increase the number of forces on high alert to over 300,000 from 40,000 as part of the biggest overhaul of the alliance's defences since the Cold War.
With Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine changing the security environment across Europe, the head of the alliance also confirmed that allies will expand troop deployments in NATO countries that sit closest to Russia.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
The decisions will be set out at a landmark summit this week in Madrid.
"Together, this constitutes the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War," Jens Stoltenberg said, in a briefing at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Monday.
He said the 30-member alliance is expected to consider Russia to be "the most significant and direct threat to our security".
Ukraine news live: War 'turning in Russia's favour' - as Putin to make first foreign trip since invasion
Allies had already hardened their defences following Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine in February, but the latest steps are by far the most significant.
"We will transform the NATO Response Force and increase the number of our high readiness forces to well over 300,000," the NATO chief said.
The NATO Response Force - which are kept at varying degrees of readiness to mobilise, from two days' notice to six months - is currently around 40,000 soldiers, sailors and air personnel.
Sky News was first to report the increase in forces last week before specific numbers were known.
Mr Stoltenberg also confirmed the strengthening of units deployed across eight eastern and southeastern NATO countries to deter Russia hostilities. They will rise in size from 1,000-strong battlegroups to brigades, which comprise around 3,000-5,000 troops.
Zelenskyy says he wants war over by winter before conditions make fightback more difficult
More war-fighting equipment will be stationed in states such as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which are among those that feel most at risk from the Kremlin.
The desire is for NATO to have sufficient forces on the ground to defeat any attempt at an invasion.
This is a fundamental shift from a policy known as a "tripwire" that was adopted after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea.
Back then, allies agreed to set up four missions in the Baltic states and Poland, each with around 1,000 troops. If Russia chose to invade, these battlegroups would not be able to stop the attack but would trigger a "tripwire", prompting reinforcements to rush in.
However, the events in Ukraine, where Russian forces have wreaked carnage in areas they have occupied, means allies believe they need to deny any invading force from having the ability to take any ground from day one of an attack.
One defence minister has said that there cannot be a "Bucha on NATO soil" - a reference to the town of Bucha, outside Kyiv, where Russian forces are accused of mass murder, torture and rape of Ukrainian civilians.
Several long-planned NATO exercises involving member countries including the UK, and partners, have been taking place over the last few months in many of the nations where troops are to be boosted.
As part of the upgraded defence plans, military personnel tasked with defending specific NATO allies will not all need to be stationed on the ground, but could be based in their home country and only deploy forward when needed.
"These troops will exercise together with home defence forces," Mr Stoltenberg said.
"And they will become familiar with local terrain, facilities, and our new pre-positioned stocks. So that they can respond smoothly and swiftly to any emergency."
The changes will need increased investment, with allies increasing defence spending for the eighth consecutive year - an increase of $350bn since 2014.
As reported by Sky News last week, the NATO chief outlined new support that allies will collectively pledge to give Ukraine, including anti-drone systems and providing Ukrainian forces with secure communication.
In a disappointment for most allies, though, there has been no breakthrough yet on overcoming opposition from Turkey to a historic bid by previously neutral Sweden and Finland to join NATO - in the ultimate snub to Mr Putin and win for the allies.
The NATO chief said he would be talking to the Turkish prime minister and had already spoken with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
He said allies "aim to make progress on Finland and Sweden's historic applications for NATO membership, while ensuring the security concerns of all allies are addressed".
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>>> China unveils cutting-edge aircraft carrier, first to be locally designed
The Washington Post
By Lily Kuo and Cate Cadell
June 17, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/17/china-third-fujian-aircraft-carrier/
China unveiled its first homegrown aircraft carrier on Friday, a vessel with advanced aircraft launch technology similar to its U.S. counterparts, in an event designed to symbolize the country’s expanding military might.
In a ribbon-cutting ceremony held at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai, officials unveiled the Type 003 warship, called “Fujian” according to the country’s defense ministry and state media. Officials cited in state media said the ship would not be battle-ready for five years, but is an important step in Beijing’s ambition to develop a “blue water” navy, capable of projecting power far beyond its shores.
The carrier has been the focus of intense interest among military observers and rival nations tracking the development of China’s navy. It’s also a major milestone in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s multiyear drive to modernize the country’s military and cut reliance on foreign military suppliers.
China’s first two carriers include a retrofit of an old Soviet model, the Liaoning, bought from Ukraine in 1998, and the Shandong, which was built in China but based on the Liaoning model and commissioned in 2019.
The Fujian represents a big step forward in technology and capabilities, analysts say.
China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia, Western officials say
Notably, it’s the first Chinese carrier to be equipped with an electromagnetic catapult for launching aircraft, meaning China’s military will be able to launch a wider range of heavier aircraft. The older carriers rely on a “ski jump” configuration which uses a slight incline in the flight deck to give lift, but limits the size and weight of the aircraft.
“That’s where this new catapult comes into play. You’re essentially slingshotting the aircraft into the air,” said Matthew Funaiole, a senior director at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies who has closely studied satellite imagery of the Fujian since hints of its construction emerged in 2018.
He said this could enable China to launch a “larger, more diverse, more robust” fleet once it sets sail. “What we suspect is that we’ll see things like surveillance aircraft that couldn’t take off before from existing carriers. He said he expects the new carrier will also likely aid in further tests of unmanned aerial vehicles detected on China’s existing carriers.
U.S. aircraft carriers have previously used a steam-powered version of the catapult developed decades ago, but in the past five years newer carriers have adopted the electromagnetic launch system similar to the one seen on the Fujian.
“The big thing for China is that they appear to have entirely skipped steam and moved directly to an (electromagnetic-style) launch system. If their system works, which remains to be seen, this is a very significant leapfrogging of technology,” Funaiole said.
While Chinese military analysts and bloggers have hailed the carrier as “China’s answer to the USS Gerald R. Ford,” commissioned in 2017, much of its capabilities are still unknown. The Ford was the world’s largest and most advanced carrier when it was built.
“There’s extremely scant info emanating on the Fujian and, for that matter, the PLA Navy’s carrier program. The exact capabilities and their performance are shrouded in much secrecy,” said Collin Koh, an expert on the People’s Liberation Army Navy at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Analysts say the carrier won’t be completed for at least two years, depending on how long it takes to complete its flight deck and install technology as well as train personnel and pilots. The ship will then likely need to complete months of sea trials before going into operation.
China’s third aircraft carrier takes shape, with ambitions to challenge U.S. naval dominance
The unveiling of China’s most advanced carrier comes amid increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, where China and its neighbors have competing territorial claims. The recent signing of a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands and the unveiling of a naval facility in Cambodia have raised further concerns about Beijing’s reach into the Gulf of Thailand and the South Pacific.
The carrier unveiling is also an important win for Xi domestically in the run-up to the China’s National People’s Congress later this year, when he is expected to take his third term in office.
“It’s hard to express how important the prestige and the image of this is for China; it’s that narrative of recapturing China’s former glory, reemerging on the world stage, becoming a regional power and then global power,” said Funaiole.
In China — where major event dates are often selected for their symbolism — state media pointed out the Fujian launch coincided with the 55th anniversary of China’s first successful hydrogen bomb test and the first anniversary of China’s Shenzhou 12 manned space mission.
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Rickards - >>> Putin Should Send Biden “Thank You” Note
BY JAMES RICKARDS
JUNE 7, 2022
https://dailyreckoning.com/putin-should-send-biden-thank-you-note/
Putin Should Send Biden “Thank You” Note
I’ve said from the start that Russia will win the kinetic war in Ukraine and the global financial war as well.
That doesn’t mean I’m pro-Russian or condone Putin’s invasion. It’s just my objective analysis based on the facts.
Of course, winning is a subjective term in both contexts. As applied to the kinetic war, winning does not mean a complete conquest of Ukraine. That was never Putin’s goal.
It means Russia will control the Donbas region in the south and east and the coastline of Ukraine, including the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Russia has already secured a land bridge from Russian territory to Crimea and likely plans to extend its coastwise control to Odessa.
Russia’s occupation of Snake Island gives it de facto control of Black Sea access to Ukraine already. Russia also occupies Kherson, which controls access to the Dnieper River in central Ukraine, which is the main access to the sea from the capital Kyiv.
What Good Are Weapons if There’s Nobody Left to Use Them?
None of this has been easy. It has been slow, brutal and costly. But Russia is not losing militarily, no matter how many videos you may see of destroyed Russian tanks.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy is now admitting that he’s losing up to 100 men a day, with many more wounded. The actual figures are probably significantly higher.
The U.S. and its allies can send all the advanced weapons they want to Ukraine, but given Ukrainian casualty rates there won’t be anyone on the front lines left to use them.
Then there are the economic sanctions…
Biden Should Send Putin a “Thank You” Note
On the financial front, Russia is making $25 billion per month in oil and natural gas sales due in large part to higher world prices as a result of economic sanctions.
Efforts to seize assets such as yachts and townhouses from Russian oligarchs also play into Putin’s hands because he had tried for over a decade to clip the oligarchs’ wings.
The fact is Putin despises the oligarchs. Putin’s base of power is the military, intelligence services and the Orthodox Church. The U.S. and its allies are actually doing Putin’s dirty work for him by going after the oligarchs.
Russia has also captured 55 million tons of coal in the Donbass region of Ukraine, which gives Russia added leverage when it comes to sanctions related to oil and natural gas.
Europe Has Few Options
The G7 climate and environmental ministers recently met in Berlin and agreed to phase out the use of coal. That sounds like a worthy goal from the perspective of climate alarmists. The problem is that most of the EU (with the exception of France) has already phased out their use of nuclear power.
At the same time, steps are being taken to ban exports of oil and natural gas from Russia to Europe because of the war in Ukraine. If you eliminate nuclear and coal, and curtail oil and natural gas, what’s left to power the homes and factories of Europe?
The ministers claim that they will arrange substitutes for the Russian oil and gas. But there aren’t any.
Qatari natural gas is mostly pre-sold to China. U.S. natural gas output has been knee-capped by Biden administration limitations on leasing and fracking. U.S. oil output is also declining for the same reasons.
The U.S. has moved from being a net exporter to a net importer of oil and natural gas in the past two years, so it cannot practically be a source for Europe.
None of this does any harm to Russia, which will simply sell its oil and gas output to China at world prices.
Green Fantasies
The G7 and EU have a fantasy that they can substitute wind and solar power for the oil, gas and coal that they are scaling back. The problem is that wind turbines and solar panels are expensive and not scalable. They depend on enormous battery farms to store power and those batteries make the entire plan even more expensive.
It’s also impossible to run a modern power grid on wind and solar alone because those sources are intermittent. There’s no solar power at night or on cloudy days, and there’s no wind power when the wind’s not blowing. Wind and solar can supplement other energy sources on the grid, but they cannot power the grid on their own.
This leads back to oil and natural gas (or coal), which the G7 has just agreed to do without. None of this makes sense. There are no ready substitute supplies of oil and natural gas. Wind and solar cannot power the grid.
Europe’s choices will be rationing and blackouts, not a green new deal.
The worst case is that the EU and G7 actually move forward with these nonsensical and unnecessary plans, in which case Europe will freeze in the dark next winter.
The U.S. Tells Africa to Starve
Meanwhile, many major trading partners of Russia have remained neutral in the war including China, India and Brazil, which gives Russia many outlets for its exports of strategic materials and energy and imports of manufactured goods.
It also looks like Russia nicked $150 billion of plutonium from Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Plutonium runs about $6,000 per gram and the Russians got 30 tons. That leaves Russia with a nice profit in the sanction war.
With respect to grain exports, Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in global grain distribution. But after the West seized the assets of the Central Bank of Russia, what did you expect?
Putin doesn’t play patty-cake. This is war and he plays to win.
The U.S. is warning African nations not to buy Russian grain seized from Ukraine. But if the Africans don’t buy it, their people will starve. Talk is cheap, while starvation focuses the mind. They’ll buy the grain. Why wouldn’t they? Mark this as another failure for mindless U.S. sanctions.
In all, Russia will be OK.
Still, investors who believe the western and Ukrainian propaganda amplified by legacy media such as the New York Times and Washington Post are being badly misled.
The war could be ended through a negotiated settlement that addresses Russia’s security concerns, while still maintaining Ukraine’s independence.
But the U.S. and its allies want the fighting to drag along as much as possible in order to weaken Russia militarily.
They’re willing to fight to the last Ukrainian to do so.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
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Name | Symbol | % Assets |
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Raytheon Technologies Corp | RTX | 7.13% |
Lockheed Martin Corp | LMT | 6.91% |
Boeing Co | BA | 6.62% |
Honeywell International Inc | HON | 5.32% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 5.29% |
Northrop Grumman Corp | NOC | 4.92% |
L3Harris Technologies Inc | LHX | 4.86% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 4.55% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 4.14% |
Axon Enterprise Inc | AXON | 3.97% |
Name | Symbol | % Assets |
---|---|---|
Raytheon Technologies Corp | RTX | 19.71% |
Boeing Co | BA | 18.63% |
Lockheed Martin Corp | LMT | 5.55% |
Teledyne Technologies Inc | TDY | 5.01% |
L3Harris Technologies Inc | LHX | 4.83% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 4.73% |
Northrop Grumman Corp | NOC | 4.51% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 4.47% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 4.26% |
Howmet Aerospace Inc | HWM | 3.51% |
Name | Symbol | % Assets |
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Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc Shs A | SPCE | 4.94% |
Axon Enterprise Inc | AXON | 4.23% |
Maxar Technologies Inc | MAXR | 4.17% |
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc | KTOS | 4.10% |
Hexcel Corp | HXL | 3.80% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 3.79% |
Mercury Systems Inc | MRCY | 3.73% |
Teledyne Technologies Inc | TDY | 3.72% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 3.71% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 3.69% |
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