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Trump threatens DE with_steep tariff on_equipment_imported_from Mexico:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-vows-call-xi-elected-194518506.html
Thanks. DE claims it has superior technology for automated operation. (See #msg-169159692 for related info.)
Whose equipment will you buy instead?
This I know. I am or should I said was a loyal customer. We farm enough acres to afford 2 combines. We have owned deere equipment for 7 decades. They have made impossible to own their equipment anymore. It isn't reliable and parts are never in stock and they mark up the parts 4 and 500%....
1 combine to trade yoy was 60k 3 years ago, It jumped to 80k 2 years ago and to trade for 2025 it is now 120k....They are doing it to every customer. The inflation jumps they have taken have priced them out of the market. Prepare from a major backlash from the farming consumer. Belts have been tightened.
Construction accounts for ~25% of DE's profits. The ag business is much more consequential for DE.
Patience boys this Dog is dead for the next couple years. Construction is tanking. Deere is in major trouble. Fancy accounting only goes so far.
Deere Quarterly Dividends
Jun 28, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Jun 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Mar 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
2023 was the peak of the ag cycle, so by comparison 2024 is "rough." But DE is much better equipped to make money throughout the ag cycle than they were a few years ago. That's the big story here, IMO.
But "agriculture" has encountered some ruff patches lately. Ruff patches happen, which is why my money is nearly 100% in large cap blue chips. And Deere is The Blue Chip of its sector.
It's certainly not a "slaughter," which is what one poster on this board predicted, LOL.
Thanks for those numbers. Exceptionally strong day for DE.
DE reports FY3Q24 results—reiterates_FY2024*_guidance:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/DE-3Q24-News-Release.pdf
• FY2023 was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.
• FY3Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $11.39B, -20% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $10.9B.
• FY3Q24 GAAP EPS was $6.29, down from $10.10 in FY3Q23, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $5.68.
• DE reiterated full-year FY2024 guidance of $7.0B net income. Based on ~275M diluted shares, the FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $25.45, down from the actual $34.63 in FY2023.
At the current share price (~$377, +7%, as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance of $25.18 equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of ~15.0x.
CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/DE-3Q24-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf
*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY3Q24 spanned the period from 5/1/24 to 7/31/24.
DE about to get slaughtered. They have earned it. Can't treat your customers like shit for so many years and just expect them to keep taking it. They ran the largest inflationary period on the American farmer ever seen in history.
Lol....are you watching?? Are you not recognizing the economic downturn....Grains all went into a bear market....not just the United States. infrastructure spending is only minimal. US economy is on life support. It's being pumped by every media outlet across the US.
DE is a very different company than it was during previous downturns in the ag cycle. Yes, DE is still a cyclical company, but it is much better equipped to handle cyclical downturns than it used to be.
Your use of the word, “slaughtered” is off-base, IMO.
Correction—DE’s layoff does not change the company’s financial guidance for FY2024:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000155837024008911/de-20240531x8k.htm
A prior post, which inadvertently omitted the word, “not,” has been deleted.
Ag economy is 3 years away from coming out of their recession unless a major weather event happens. This company is about to be slaughtered.
The one sector farmers will spend money on is planters. Find out how many planters are on order ....or better yet how many employees are working in Planter works(thats what JD calls their planter factory)... People have been laid off there for almost 6 months......just saying be careful...Papa Deere is going to slash.
I'm not....that will start getting heavily cut this next qtr. layoffs can only get u through 2 qtrs after that it's dividends. next wtr expect a huge dividend cut.
You're ignoring Deere's steady earnings and dividend increases over the past decade.
In the conference call they made no mention of more layoffs or driving down inventory even further. Maybe I shouldn't have said lie. I should have said never told the whole truth.
I work in this sector and agriculture is in a MAJOR recession....Farmers have pretty much closed their checkbook. Inflation has hit them for the last 10 years and now interest rates are putting the squeeze on. Deere cannot avoid a major hit here. Layoffs aren't going to save them from this recession.
I skimmed Taleb's book, The Black Swan when it came out. Got nothing from it. He launched several investment funds a decade ago. All performed poorly as I recall.
"At the most basic level, optionality just means having lots of options."
"MBAs love to talk about “optionality” and how they want more of it. But you don’t need an MBA to explain yourself by saying you’re “Keeping your options open.” Optionality is the Millennial lodestar: we keep our options open."
Abhorrent biz speak
It's a common buzzword in business. In any event, I don't see where DE said anything misleading, as the other poster alleged.
I see that now, but about as strange using optionality.
The word used was, "optionality" (not operationality). It means the same as "option."
"The key here, is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we’re giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year."
Does anyone really use the word Operationality? LOL Not likely in the AG business.
A lie? I don't even know what it says
Huh? The excerpt you posted is in the CC transcript.
Deere lied on their conference call. This is going to end badly.
No direct mention of these were made in the earnings call, although there was much emphasis placed on cost control measures.
“We ended 2023 with really low levels of large tractor inventory, but we think it’s prudent to drive those levels even lower as we close out our 2024.
“The key here, is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we’re giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year.”
Deere Q Dividends
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Addendum—DE is +1,300% during the past 15 years, not counting reinvested dividends.
At the current share price (~$399 as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance of $25.18 equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of ~15.8x.
DE reports FY2Q24* results—reduces FY2024* guidance again:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/DE-2Q24-News-Release.pdf
• FY2023* was a peak-cycle year for DE, so FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.
• FY2Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $13.6B, -16% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $1326B.
• FY1Q24 GAAP EPS was $8.53, -12% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $7.86.
• DE lowered guidance for FY2024 net income to $7.0B (from the prior range of $7.50-7.75B three months ago and $7.75-8.25B six months ago). Based on 278M diluted shares @4/30/24, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $25.18, -27% relative to the actual $34.63 in FY2023.
*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY2Q24 spanned the period from 2/1/24 to 4/30/24.
At the current share price (~$367 as I’m typing), the DE's FY2024 EPS guidance equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of 13.6x.
FY2023 was a peak-cycle year for DE, so FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.
DE reports FY1Q24* results—reduces FY2024* guidance:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/DE-1Q24-News-Release.pdf
• FY1Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $10.5B -24% YoY, but above the consensus figure of $10.3B.
• FY1Q24 GAAP EPS was $6.23, -5% YoY and below the consensus figure of $6.55.
• DE lowered guidance for FY2024 net income to $7.50-7.75 (from the prior range of $7.75-8.25B). Based on 281M diluted shares @1/31/24, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $26.70-27.20. At the midpoint of the range ($26.95), the FY2024 EPS guidance is -22% YoY relative to $34.63 in FY2023.
It's almost impossible to beat Cintas Corp, which has been spectacular for several decades. Prior to 2021 CTAS only paid one annual dividend each year, but always growing rapidly
Date Dividends
Aug 14, 2023 1.35 Dividend
May 12, 2023 1.15 Dividend
Feb 14, 2023 1.15 Dividend
Nov 14, 2022 1.15 Dividend
Aug 12, 2022 1.15 Dividend
May 13, 2022 0.95 Dividend
Feb 14, 2022 0.95 Dividend
Nov 12, 2021 0.95 Dividend
Aug 12, 2021 0.95 Dividend
May 13, 2021 0.75 Dividend
Feb 11, 2021 0.75 Dividend
Deere Quarterly Dividends since 2020
Date Dividends
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Never seen anything like this before from any company.
DE raises dividend sixth time in past 2.5 years:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000155837023019502/de-20231206xex99d1.htm
The new annualized payout is $5.88, up from: $5.40 in Aug 2023; $5.00 in Feb 2023; $4.80 in Dec 2022; $4.52 in May 22; $4.20 in Aug 2021; and $3.60 prior to Aug 2021.
At the current share price (~$366), the new annualized payout equates to a yield of 1.6%.
DE reports FY4Q23* results—issues (down) FY2024* guidance:
https://www.deere.com/assets/pdfs/common/news/deere-4q23-earnings-release.pdf
• FY4Q23 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $13.8B, -4% YoY.
• FY4Q23 GAAP EPS was $8.26, +11% YoY.
• DE issued new guidance for FY2024 net income of $7.75-8.25B. Based on 285M diluted shares @10/31/23, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $27.20-28.95, -16-21% YoY relative to $34.63 in FY2023, but +17-24% relative to $23.28 in FY2022.
The stock is down ~5% in PM trading, presumably on the FY2024 guidance. Most investors realized that FY2023 was likely going to be the top of the current ag and construction cycle, but the magnitude of the reduction in FY2024 net-income guidance relative to FY2023 is larger than many investors probably expected.
At the current share price (~$363 as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of about 13.
CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/DE-4Q23-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf
*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY4Q23 spanned the period from 8/1/23 to 10/31/23.
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