Deere and Co (DE)

[DewDiligence]

DE dials back on DEI:

https://www.wsj.com/business/deere-slashes-diversity-initiatives-after-backlash-from-conservative-activist-24424500

Deere, the world’s largest seller of farm equipment, said it would ensure the absence of what it described as “socially motivated messages” from company-mandated training materials and policies unless otherwise required. It also pledged to reaffirm that “the existence of diversity quotas and pronoun identification” aren’t, and never have been, company policy.

[Staypositive1]

Lol....are you watching?? Are you not recognizing the economic downturn....Grains all went into a bear market....not just the United States. infrastructure spending is only minimal. US economy is on life support. It's being pumped by every media outlet across the US.

[DewDiligence]

DE is a very different company than it was during previous downturns in the ag cycle. Yes, DE is still a cyclical company, but it is much better equipped to handle cyclical downturns than it used to be.

Your use of the word, “slaughtered” is off-base, IMO.

[DewDiligence]

Correction—DE’s layoff does not change the company’s financial guidance for FY2024:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000155837024008911/de-20240531x8k.htm

A prior post, which inadvertently omitted the word, “not,” has been deleted.

[Staypositive1]

Ag economy is 3 years away from coming out of their recession unless a major weather event happens. This company is about to be slaughtered.

[Staypositive1]

The one sector farmers will spend money on is planters. Find out how many planters are on order ....or better yet how many employees are working in Planter works(thats what JD calls their planter factory)... People have been laid off there for almost 6 months......just saying be careful...Papa Deere is going to slash.

[Staypositive1]

I'm not....that will start getting heavily cut this next qtr. layoffs can only get u through 2 qtrs after that it's dividends. next wtr expect a huge dividend cut.

[bar1080]

You're ignoring Deere's steady earnings and dividend increases over the past decade.

[Staypositive1]

In the conference call they made no mention of more layoffs or driving down inventory even further. Maybe I shouldn't have said lie. I should have said never told the whole truth.

I work in this sector and agriculture is in a MAJOR recession....Farmers have pretty much closed their checkbook. Inflation has hit them for the last 10 years and now interest rates are putting the squeeze on. Deere cannot avoid a major hit here. Layoffs aren't going to save them from this recession.

[bar1080]

I skimmed Taleb's book, The Black Swan when it came out. Got nothing from it. He launched several investment funds a decade ago. All performed poorly as I recall.

[bar1080]

"At the most basic level, optionality just means having lots of options."

"MBAs love to talk about “optionality” and how they want more of it. But you don’t need an MBA to explain yourself by saying you’re “Keeping your options open.” Optionality is the Millennial lodestar: we keep our options open."

Abhorrent biz speak

[DewDiligence]

It's a common buzzword in business. In any event, I don't see where DE said anything misleading, as the other poster alleged.

[bar1080]

I see that now, but about as strange using optionality.

[DewDiligence]

The word used was, "optionality" (not operationality). It means the same as "option."

[bar1080]

"The key here, is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we’re giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year."

Does anyone really use the word Operationality? LOL Not likely in the AG business.

A lie? I don't even know what it says

[DewDiligence]

Huh? The excerpt you posted is in the CC transcript.

[Staypositive1]

Deere lied on their conference call. This is going to end badly.

No direct mention of these were made in the earnings call, although there was much emphasis placed on cost control measures.

“We ended 2023 with really low levels of large tractor inventory, but we think it’s prudent to drive those levels even lower as we close out our 2024.

“The key here, is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we’re giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year.”

[bar1080]

Deere Q Dividends

Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend

[DewDiligence]

DE FY2Q24 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q2-2024-deere-co-earnings-062101616.html

[DewDiligence]

Addendum—DE is +1,300% during the past 15 years, not counting reinvested dividends.

[DewDiligence]

At the current share price (~$399 as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance of $25.18 equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of ~15.8x.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY2Q24 CC slides:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/DE-2Q24-Earnings-Call-Slides-Presentation.pdf

[DewDiligence]

DE reports FY2Q24* results—reduces FY2024* guidance again:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/DE-2Q24-News-Release.pdf

• FY2023* was a peak-cycle year for DE, so FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.

• FY2Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $13.6B, -16% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $1326B.

• FY1Q24 GAAP EPS was $8.53, -12% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $7.86.

• DE lowered guidance for FY2024 net income to $7.0B (from the prior range of $7.50-7.75B three months ago and $7.75-8.25B six months ago). Based on 278M diluted shares @4/30/24, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $25.18, -27% relative to the actual $34.63 in FY2023.

*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY2Q24 spanned the period from 2/1/24 to 4/30/24.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY1Q24 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2024-deere-co-earnings-075048457.html

[DewDiligence]

At the current share price (~$367 as I’m typing), the DE's FY2024 EPS guidance equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of 13.6x.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY1Q24 CC slides:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/DE-1Q24-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

[DewDiligence]

FY2023 was a peak-cycle year for DE, so FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.

[DewDiligence]

DE reports FY1Q24* results—reduces FY2024* guidance:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/DE-1Q24-News-Release.pdf

• FY1Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $10.5B -24% YoY, but above the consensus figure of $10.3B.

• FY1Q24 GAAP EPS was $6.23, -5% YoY and below the consensus figure of $6.55.

• DE lowered guidance for FY2024 net income to $7.50-7.75 (from the prior range of $7.75-8.25B). Based on 281M diluted shares @1/31/24, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $26.70-27.20. At the midpoint of the range ($26.95), the FY2024 EPS guidance is -22% YoY relative to $34.63 in FY2023.

[bar1080]

It's almost impossible to beat Cintas Corp, which has been spectacular for several decades. Prior to 2021 CTAS only paid one annual dividend each year, but always growing rapidly

   Date	         Dividends  
  Aug 14, 2023	1.35 Dividend  
  May 12, 2023	1.15 Dividend  
  Feb 14, 2023	1.15 Dividend  
  Nov 14, 2022	1.15 Dividend  
  Aug 12, 2022	1.15 Dividend  
  May 13, 2022	0.95 Dividend  
  Feb 14, 2022	0.95 Dividend  
  Nov 12, 2021	0.95 Dividend  
  Aug 12, 2021	0.95 Dividend  
  May 13, 2021	0.75 Dividend  
  Feb 11, 2021	0.75 Dividend

[bar1080]

Deere Quarterly Dividends since 2020

   Date          Dividends 
 Sep 28, 2023	1.35 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2023	1.25 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2023	1.25 Dividend 
 Dec 29, 2022	1.20 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2022	1.13 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2022	1.13 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2022	1.05 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2021	1.05 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2021	1.05 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2021	0.90 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2021	0.90 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 

[DewDiligence]

Never seen anything like this before from any company.

[bar1080]

Amazing

[DewDiligence]

DE raises dividend sixth time in past 2.5 years:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000155837023019502/de-20231206xex99d1.htm

The new annualized payout is $5.88, up from: $5.40 in Aug 2023; $5.00 in Feb 2023; $4.80 in Dec 2022; $4.52 in May 22; $4.20 in Aug 2021; and $3.60 prior to Aug 2021.

At the current share price (~$366), the new annualized payout equates to a yield of 1.6%.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY4Q23 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q4-2023-deere-co-earnings-052533425.html

[DewDiligence]

DE reports FY4Q23* results—issues (down) FY2024* guidance:

https://www.deere.com/assets/pdfs/common/news/deere-4q23-earnings-release.pdf

• FY4Q23 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $13.8B, -4% YoY.

• FY4Q23 GAAP EPS was $8.26, +11% YoY.

• DE issued new guidance for FY2024 net income of $7.75-8.25B. Based on 285M diluted shares @10/31/23, DE’s FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $27.20-28.95, -16-21% YoY relative to $34.63 in FY2023, but +17-24% relative to $23.28 in FY2022.

The stock is down ~5% in PM trading, presumably on the FY2024 guidance. Most investors realized that FY2023 was likely going to be the top of the current ag and construction cycle, but the magnitude of the reduction in FY2024 net-income guidance relative to FY2023 is larger than many investors probably expected.

At the current share price (~$363 as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of about 13.


CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/DE-4Q23-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY4Q23 spanned the period from 8/1/23 to 10/31/23.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY4Q23 CC 11/22/23 9am ET.

[bar1080]

  Date       	Dividends 
 Jun 29, 2023	1.25 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2023	1.25 Dividend 
 Dec 29, 2022	1.2 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2022	1.13 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2022	1.13 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2022	1.05 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2021	1.05 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2021	1.05 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2021	0.9 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2021	0.9 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2020	0.76 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2019	0.76 Dividend 
 Sep 27, 2019	0.76 Dividend 
 Jun 27, 2019	0.76 Dividend 
 Mar 28, 2019	0.76 Dividend 
 Dec 28, 2018	0.76 Dividend 
 Sep 27, 2018	0.69 Dividend

[DewDiligence]

DE boosts dividend fifth time_in past two years:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000155837023015338/de-20230830xex99d1.htm

The new annualized payout is $5.40, up from: $5.00 in Feb 2023; $4.80 in Dec 2022; $4.52 in May 22; $4.20 in Aug 2021; and $3.60 prior to Aug 2021.

In other words, DE has raised the dividend by a cumulative 50%(!) in the past two years.

At the current share price ($413), the new annualized payout is a yield of 1.3%.

[DewDiligence]

DE FY3Q23 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q3-2023-deere-co-earnings-042634735.html

[DewDiligence]

DE reports FY3Q23* results— raises fiscal-year guidance again:

https://www.deere.com/assets/pdfs/common/news/deere-3q23-earnings-release.pdf

FY3Q23 was another excellent quarter in all operating segments. Price increases more than offset increased production costs, and DE expects this to be true during all of FY2023.

• FY3Q23 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $14.3B, +10% YoY.

• FY3Q23 GAAP EPS was $10.20, +66% YoY.

DE again raised FY2023 net-income guidance to a range of $9.75-10.0B (up from $9.25-9.50B three months ago and $8.75-9.25B six months ago).

Based on 292M diluted shares @7/31/23, DE’s FY2023 net-income guidance equates to FY2023 GAAP EPS of $33.40-34.25, +43-47% YoY relative to $23.28 in FY2022, and +76-80%(!) relative to $18.99 in FY2021.

At the current share price (~$400 as I’m typing), the FY2023 EPS guidance equates to a FY2023 P/E ratio of about 12.

The stock is down today because investors are apparently concluding that the global agricultural-equipment market cannot get any better.

CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/DE-3Q23-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY3Q23 spanned the period from 5/1/23 to 7/31/23.

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Why Deere (DE) is a Top Stock for the Long-Term

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-deere-top-stock-long-133004850.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619123-deere-stock-strong-demand-automated-solutions

https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/deere-stock-nysede-ai-upside-doesnt-look-priced-in-yet

https://finmasters.com/stock-calculator/?sa=DE&d=20040810&a=20000

[Bountiful_Harvest]

John Deere to discuss state of agrobotics in RoboBusiness keynote:

https://www.therobotreport.com/john-deere-to-discuss-state-of-agrobotics-in-robobusiness-keynote/

John Deere Announces New Partnership With EGO:

https://www.deere.com/en/news/all-news/john-deere-announces-new-partnership-with-ego/

[bar1080]

"Deere makes major announcement about future of lawn equipment: ‘[We want] to serve our evolving customers’"

"For millions of homeowners, mowing the law just got a whole lot greener now that lawncare giants John Deere and EGO are working together, Electrek reported.

EGO is a leading supplier of battery-powered lawn equipment that runs on interchangeable 56-volt lithium-ion batteries, which the company says are equal to or greater than the power of gas-powered motors.

Under the agreement, EGO’s over 70 battery-powered lawn care products will be available at John Deere dealers in Canada and the U.S. this fall, according to Electrek. The publication further reported that the companies are in talks to develop future equipment together.

Lawn care equipment is a major contributor to the pollution blanket overheating our planet. The Portland Press Herald reported that data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) showed that gasoline-powered equipment like lawnmowers and leaf blowers produce around 242 million tons of pollutants annually, an amount equal to that of cars and houses."

"What’s more, the EPA estimated that upward of 17 million gallons of gasoline is spilled each year while refueling lawn equipment, polluting and degrading soil, and ending up in our water"

https://news.yahoo.com/john-deere-makes-major-announcement-110000162.html

[bar1080]

I didn't realize today was Deere's all-time high. Not totally thrilled because I had intended to buy much more DE before it took off.

[Monksdream]

DE new 52 week high

[bar1080]

"California woman lying in grass killed by Deere lawnmower, a advocates, family question police"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/19/christine-chavez-lawnmower-killing-modesto-concerns/70433060007/

[bar1080]

yes lots considering..."Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Deere & Company in their own names. As it is a large company, we'd only expect insiders to own a small percentage of it. But it's worth noting that they own US$144m worth of shares.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-de/deere/news/after-losing-10-in-the-past-year-deere-company-nysede-instit

[DewDiligence]

DE CEO sells ~$22M of stock in 10b5-1 plan:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000031518923000020/xslF345X04/primary_doc.xml

That’s a lot of stock.

[bar1080]

Was just reviewing my stocks especially the DE I bought about three weeks ago

[DewDiligence]

Are you referring to #msg-172016968?