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Problem....
Right now is the financials...
No squeeze in the cards, if those cant get going..
All else is primed and I prepared you all for how they were going into the SOX and Biotechs yestrerday.
Those 2 sectors are leading today, a nice signal from yesterday, but without the financilas, these marlets today will not get too far.
So no blast off without the NF>X taking off.
All eyes on it now...
Problem....
Right now is the financials...
No squeeze in the cards, if those cant get going..
All else is primed and I prepared you all for how they were going into the SOX and Biotechs yestrerday.
Those 2 sectors are leading today, a nice signal from yesterday, but without the financilas, these marlets today will not get too far.
So no blast off without the NF>X taking off.
All eyes on it now...
HUI pullback, as expected.......
So far as long as this, slow painful... toe nail by toe nail market bounce moves..
HUI 130 resistance now.
Manana
Nice JR......
Im still long the swings posted, no changes here.
Thinking short squeeze coming this afternoon, general markets.
Im playing it that way anyway.
Will cut bait if we fail, add more long if we move higher.
Manana
addin back shorts here, AZO & FITB...
FIB monthly looks as is it wants to let go and head for 44.
covered NVR +13 on 150 shares.
anything over 305 is a gift from the lord.
blink and you miss it rally...
this does not impress me...
longs long gone.
watch the US$ incog... 107.77.
greenspans coronation on deck and i suspect sir alan of press
will want to look hero-like.
after that, all bets are off as EOQ proppage will leave the
bagholders looking for exit.
also, december gold holds 325 level and this rally's duration
will be very short lived.
new lows on deck in early october.
imo.
Glad I am ALREADY long.
This gap is going to be hard on shorts.
Yesterday might have been a disappointment but today I bank!
Let's see if it holds. Late last night the futures were not good and then I wake up and boom. Vat a country!
Only thing I didn't do is add yesterday morning, oh well, leaves more cash to add today.
incog
end of quarter prop is ON... sclaing into some longs.
qlgc, amg, fitb, intc, msft and orcl.
nice trade on rfmd manana!
waterfall thesis (part one)
i was asked to explain my thesis for “waterfall” mode yesterday.
will refrain from my usual untempered nature and present
the structured finance pyramid for what it is and how it
continues to evolve.
derivatives square up twice a year, march & september as
counter parties either extend, dissolve or adjust their
risk profiles.
fair enuf, any good financial thesis requires a foundation
based in both fact & speculation supported by the fundamental
realities.
there is a tsunami fast approaching, one swelling up due to the
abuse of derived financial instruments from asset’s that
continue to erode in both value & confidence.
it is not complicated. it is merely confusing due to the
“opaqueness” of counter party arrangements.
there are three key variables to the a derivatives function:
duration, counter party, liquidity of the underlying asset
class.
by example; let’s assume you are a large multi-national
corporation in need of continuous cash flow to maintain
operations; both fixed & variable costs for given levels of
production from 15 to 90 days. frictional, seasonal and
structural gaps create hiccups in your cash flow.
you were able to tap the commercial paper market for funds with
durations under 90 days with money market funds acting as the
counter party. these funds are liquid and represent demand
deposits available to fund short duration obligations as the
risk are mitigated by the duration. corporation with access to
this market are unlikely to go out of business within 90 days,
thus the market remains highly liquid.
as a large multi national let’s assume your short term cost of
capital is 1.5% as the average money market is paying a little
over 1.25%. your capital division has the ability to structure
leases, loans and whatever structured finance vehicle they can
dream up at 5.5%. the spread is 4% and is pure gravy for your
lower margin products and services.
on a percentage basis the spread represents a massive gain to
your bottom line.
here’s where it gets interesting. the duration of your
structured finance vehicle is of a far longer term based on the
functional life and depreciation of the asset sold. in 90 days
your commercial paper offering has to be closed, but your
“lease obligation” is for 5 years. you have paid both fixed and
variable costs associated with producing the underlying asset
while it’s receivable is stretch out over 5 years.
this duration disconnect has sent up a number of red flags
recently. and the market to this type of financing has
essentially been closed. Inventory builds & channel stuffing
creates risks to cash flow as shipping airplanes to ensenada
does not create the flows necessary to make good on these
shorter term obligations.
more to follow... as this will be rather long winded.
Searched "file uploads" to see what has been discussed
Posted by: Quahog
In reply to: Bob Zumbrunnen who wrote msg# 13411
Date:5/2/2002 7:12:52 PM
Post #of 17173
How much space y'all got sittin' around doing nothing?
How about offering 10 or 20 mb to paying customers to use as a web page? It would be a nice way to upload my files, graphics, sounds, etc. Then you could have a policy of only allowing embedded files that are located on your servers.
Just another way of offering a little "value" to your service. Plus, then you've got a built in home page that we all would use.
They've been kicking this around for awhile and maybe it'll get there. TalkStox has a great site for file uploads, but not the clean interface of IHub.
http://www.talkstox.com/forum/index.php?s=
I'm trying to get them to increase the file size restriction for me a little bit from 60K to at least 70K.
Now John, that would.............................
Take all the fun out of getting upside down on trades, making stupid decisions and predicting, wouldnt it?
Manana
People should let the stock tell them what to do>They are not controlling the stock.Millions of decisions are,and you'll never know all of those millions of decisions.
Jesse Barkasy
John
incog, I think you are on to it. Therefore tax laws with regard to trading would be of keenest interest.
: )
Maybe the lack of fear...
is due to the daytrading by the funds and traders. In my case when I lose on a position, I can quickly scalp and make up the difference. Maybe everyone is doing this creating a "forever slide" with no capitulation.
I know the funds are daytrading regardless what they are reporting officially.
incog
Symbol Name Trend Signal RS vs
SPX Comps BP
CKG AMEX S&P 600 Barra Growth Index Neg 07/02/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
CVK AMEX S&P 600 Barra Value Index Neg 07/15/2002 Sell Buy O 0 0.000
DJGT Dow Jones Global Titans Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Sell O 36 14.290
DJIA Dow Jones Pos 08/22/2002 Sell None 30 20.000
DJX The Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Index Opt. Neg 09/17/2001 Sell Buy X 30 20.000
DWALCG Dorsey Wright Large Cap Growth Index Neg 06/11/2002 Buy Buy X 30 30.000
DWALCV Dorsey Wright Large Cap Value Index Neg 09/17/2001 Sell Buy X 30 10.000
DWASCG Dorsey Wright Small Cap Growth Index Neg 06/25/2002 Sell Buy O 30 40.000
DWASCV Dorsey Wright Small Cap Value Index Neg 07/19/2002 Sell Buy O 44 20.450
EMW The Wilshire 4500 Completion Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
MGD AMEX S&P 400 Barra Growth Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
MID S&P 400 Midcap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 400 32.830
MLN Nikkei 225 Market Index Target-Term Sec Neg 05/22/2000 None None X 1 0.000
MUV AMEX S&P 400 Barra Value Index Neg 07/11/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
NASD Nasdaq Composite Neg 09/22/2000 Sell Sell O 1 0.000
NDX NASDAQ Non Financial Index Neg 02/09/2001 Sell Sell O 100 21.210
NHB The New York Stock Exchange Beta Index Pos 08/22/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
NYA New York Composite Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 1 0.000
NYSEUS1 NYSE U.S. 100 Index Neg 07/10/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
OEX S & P 100 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell Buy O 100 25.000
RDG Russell Midcap Growth IX Neg 05/07/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
RLG Russell 1000 Growth Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell Sell O 0 0.000
RLV Russell 1000 Value Index Neg 06/06/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMC Russell Midcap Index Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RMV Russell Midcap Value IX Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
RUI Russell 1000 Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell None O 0 0.000
RUJ Russell 2000 Value Idx Pos 11/02/1999 Sell Buy O 0 0.000
RUO Russell 2000 Growth Index Neg 06/14/2002 Sell Sell X 0 0.000
RUT Russell 2000 Index Neg 07/02/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
SGX S&P Barra Growth Index Neg 03/25/2002 Sell Sell O 156 30.520
SML S&P 600 Small Cap Index Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy X 600 30.590
SPX S & P 500 Index Neg 04/25/2002 Sell None O 501 30.460
SVX S & P Barra Value Index Neg 04/26/2002 Sell Buy X 342 29.010
TMW Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Neg 05/28/2002 Sell None X 0 0.000
VA/Y Value Line Arithmetic Spot Neg 06/04/2002 Sell Buy O 1 0.000
VG/Y Value Line Geometric Spot Neg 06/03/2002 Sell Sell O 0 0.000
XAX The AMEX Composite Index Neg 07/11/2002 Sell Buy X 0 0.000
XII Amex Institutional Index Neg 04/24/2002 Sell Sell O 75 25.680
XMI Amex Major MKT Index Pos 08/19/2002 Sell Buy X 20 10.000
$indu / djia P&F
Dow Jones (DJIA) The trend chart of Dow Jones shows the index is in a downtrend, or trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. The most recent pattern was a Double Bottom at 8200.000 on 09/17/2002. The index's trend chart is currently in a column of O's. The weekly distribution puts the index on the oversold side by -58.1% The mid range of the distribution is at 8500.16. The weekly momentum turned negative on 09/13/2002 indicating short term weakness.
7733.20 8196.79 8660.38
Weekly Distribution Table
/ +
/ + +
/ + +
/ + +
+* +
+ / +
-----/------------------------------
7094.47 8500.16 9905.84
Momentums Period Status Cross point
Daily Negative
11 Days 8159.99
Weekly Negative
2 Weeks 8774.74
Monthly Negative
4 Months 10500.56
From dow theory letters tonite :
Question -- Russell, you keep talking about an A-B-C bear market formation, and you've said that we're in the first major wave down-wave or the A leg. Where do you think we are in this A wave or leg?
Answer -- I'm sorry to say that I believe we're far from the end of this initial down-leg. I base this partly on the still "hopeful" sentiment regarding the market, and the fact that I still don't sense any panic or extreme fear. Also, we've only had one 90% downside day so far, and that one occurred on September 3. According to Lowry's history, the average major bear market decline sees five 90% downside days.
My old friend, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave fame believes we're at about at the half-way level of this major A down-wave. I'll go along with Bob.
Signalwatch.com-Looking at the 60 minute chart,you see that the DOW has steadily traded lower within the channel boundaries for the last 10 trading sessions and looks oversold in the medium term.Since the index has traded down for such an extended period,we would expect a reversal off the lower channel boundary fairly soon.
John
Exactly JR.
The SOB holds and bounces at the lows or maybe on a large days sell off, it spikes down slightly below the lows say by a hundred points, the VIX spikes up and then it bounces back causing some sort of a bear market bounce.
Or it doesnt. If it doesnt hold... this thing is hoing to come unglued. Your waterfall will happen.
But Im thinking we need some sort of an intermidiaate bounce here, get a bit higher, before the CRAP really hits the fan... few weeks from now, to really blow out those lows.
Manana
see if the double bottom tosses a curve ball.
actualy like to be long for a change of pace.
Flat day.
Scalped EDS for another .50 wild ride.
Scalped EP for .25
Still holding QQQ SMH. Up big near close, walked away from terminal and gains evaporated. Will wait for another day.
Missed adding this am on gap down since move was so fast.
Losers were RRI MCD and MIR, scalps made up for them.
incog
don't know mng manana, but agree with gold comments.
interesting times. time is all.
Gold here is the deal....
Besides what I said about it waiting on the dollar and the dow to lose lows or hold.....
Spot gold has huge 5 year resitance here from 320 to 340.
Check the charts, go back 10 years.
So over 340 this thing is going to ERPUT.
For now if the DOW and markets hold for a bounce, Gold will pull back here.
Gold is just waiting for the trigger to pullback or break out. The DOW breaking those old lows may do it. It holds those old lows and bounces expect Gold to pull back.
JR. What do think of this damn......MNG?
Manana
Air let out, for the afternoon.
DOW and those old lows, are just a " whisper" away now.
XAU held up very nice...
Manana
Manana pulls out glasses for CHOD.
I pulled out my 100X microscope to see this chart, cant see it, does it have one?
Manana
For now I see these basterds...
I can see em selling many of those old noj tech bull sectors today, they are crashing supports and they are sneaking into the SOX.
Basterds cant fool Manana
See how they selling offLIZ,AET,WLP,CI,ACL,USPH,Utilites,Airlines,PPG,IR,PG,GCI,HOV,BJS et...
See those Basterds selling.... See the SOX ramping for now.
I see you basterds, I know what you are doing....
Manana
Here is what im thinking.
Untill, 7532 ( DOW)is taken out with power and the Dollar fails... short term I think gold is stuck. It should have ripped once it got over 325 and didnt.... Now it is trying to make a 6 month double or triple top, instead of taking it out.
I think if the DOW fails those old lows Gold will rip, but untill then and if it holds and the dollar wont fail, it is stuck.
Is why I exited those small day trades in Gold, several weeks ago and some yesterday. Still have the core I have mentioned.
I gave the " Baton" to saikman and JRMFL on that weeks ago, when
I exited that last large swing. I hope the damn gold index explodes for you guys, but untill it breaks out with force Im on the side lines.
Is why I started getting long the market last Friday, Im expecting a manipulation rally here in the markets at old DOW lows.
If Im wrong on both Ill reverse, untill DOW old lows are smasshed Im in. Untill gold smashes out of those 6 month prices. Im out.
Right now this market is having more train wrecks everyday, more than a west bound trach into an east bound track. Dangerous either way... short or long.
See what happens, my predicting power, needs new batteries.
Out of Energizers... Manana
Castle Holdings (OTCBB: CHOD) up 60% as Nasdaq (OTCBB: NDAQ) heads further south, the Triple Q's (QQQ) trading just under 21 in mid afternoon trading. At 2:15pm 20.94 -0.08 -0.38% on volume of 51,265,300.
XEROX CORP (NYSE: XRX) Xerox said on Monday, after the close of trading, that the U.S. attorney's office in Bridgeport, Connecticut is investigating its past accounting practices. Shares ended $6.67. At 2:16pm 5.99 off -0.68 down -10.19% on volume of 8,082,500
James J. Houtz, President of Sionix Corporation (OTC Bulletin Board: SINX) yesterday announced their Annual Shareholder's Meeting location has been changed to the Hyatt Regency Hotel and Convention Center in Irvine, California on October 23, 2002 at 10:00 a.m. @11:54am 0.33 0.00 0.00% 3,300
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020905/lath063_1.html
PALM INC. (Nasdaq: PALM) Leading hand-held computer maker Palm said on Monday, after the closing bell, its fiscal first-quarter net loss widened from a year earlier on slower demand, but waxed optimistic about a spate of new products it will unveil ahead of the key holiday shopping season. Shares closed at 76 cents. @2:25pm 0.741 off -0.019 down -2.50% on volume of 47,393,680
FNUSA and or its affiliates has received compensation of equity in SINX and is adding to a significant position in CHOD purchased in the open market. Please visit our web site for section SEC 17b disclaimer.
CONTACT: Financial News USA Tel: +1 714 573 9814 e-mail: info@financialnewsusa.com WWW: http://www.financialnewsusa.com
M2 Communications Ltd disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. Data supplied by named party/parties. Further information on M2 PressWIRE can be obtained at http://www.presswire.net on the world wide web. Inquiries to info@m2.com.
Penny King Holdings Corporation, a Delaware Investment Holding Company.
nah, it wasn't kranny.
to tame.
CNBC just posted an E Mail from " Dave " in Denver.
It looked like Go broncos, writing... LOL
Was that you Dave?
LOL
Airlines, from last weeks call.
You see these airlines charts?
Pull up AMR, they all look about the same.
Manana
Today im seeing more rotation out of more of those old bull sectors, back into Regional Banks and the Techs SOX and Biotechs.
Clear daily rotation and wierd but it is happening so far.
See what the Fed does here.
Manana
wouldn't be chasing trades here, offed most longs and am
gonna see what shakes loose.
they are in a lose/lose position manana.
desperate is an understatement.
Be careful.? hell, Im just trying to get back to even...
Then exit....
Lol
no open market ops just yet... strangely silent on that front.
could it be al has $50 billion in party $'s.
hoover, i have been starinf this waterfall in the face forever.
lol.
the time is at hand, one more pop into 2:15 and 7702 lets go like buddah.
the fundas are taking over... simple as that.
one look at nfx/bxk scares the crap outta me.
derivatives settle this month, or at least get "squared".
it happens twice a year, end of march & september is my thesis
for the meltdown, so far i'm batting 1000 and closing my eyes.
jpm is coming unglued in quick order, given jpm's our 2nd largest bank,
the rest of the globe is staring down a japanese style meltdown in the dow
and will unload this mess.
any rallies should be shorted and held to 6300s.
all my opinion, of course. manana emailed my coffay.
i am kinda slow, what with these goldbars weighing me down.
JRM, why do you think we crash now? What confluence of things is it has you so keyed on this? It's not that I don't believe, it's that I don't understand .... why now?
Thanks
be VERY careful here manana...
they will sell it all. every drop.
That link won't work for a chart. When I try to go to it in a separate browser window, I get a 404 error.
ROAD,YELL.. Biotechs... Regional Banks,LH,FRX, SRCL, Education Software,A few Medical parts suppliers... like YDNT, SOX, is where the power is so far.
Utilites continue the tank like..... EP,FPL,TXU.
MANANA
OVTI,EDS,LIZ,NEWP,KFT,PPG,UNP,ALK,USPI,USPH and Water stocks are a slaughter house.
Aerospace rolling over here.
Download PM's dossier on Iraq
http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page6139.asp
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5EA6AZ
NEW YORK -- They came for fire and brimstone. They got it. They are gold bugs; a 3,000 strong congregation that descended on the Marriot Marquis in Manhattan for the fifteenth annual New York Institutional Gold Conference.
Gold's high priests did not disappoint. These money shows are expected to deliver strong harmonies, but this one offered unusual doctrinal purity with this refrain – we're experiencing a secular bull market for gold and a secular bear market for, well, pretty much everything else. Indeed, the secularism required for this religion is so extraordinary that last year's conference was cancelled for lack of interest; that was when gold was only just beginning its ascent and before Alan Greenspan became the devil incarnate.
As if to reinforce the metal's revivalist power, conference coreligionists could marvel at Danté's Inferno raging on the electronic ticker tapes (Dow -114; Nasd -36; S&P5c -12; 10-yr -.095) threading above Times' Square. The photons pulsing billions of vanishing dollars were, however, lost on today's Broadway exhibitionist; very much the heathen secularist – a guitar mauling, Stetson capped crooner with "Naked Cowboy" scrawled across his rear end.
Jim Sinclair, on the other hand, remained fully clothed and guitar free at all times. Latterly chairman of Tan Range Exploration [TNX], but more famous as "Mr Gold" for his four decades of experience with the metal, Sinclair packed the pews and the aisles.
He is literally the Billy Graham of this business, which has more than its share of Al Sharptons and Jesse Jacksons. He had an unadulterated message of portfolio salvation that doesn't require intercession. It's between you and the gold price.
He and Monaco based newsletter publisher Harry Schultz have essentially repackaged the marriage vows – love gold, but don't die with it. They warn that you can have every fundamental in place, but without the right technical props gold is little more than a Roman candle waiting for a match – blindingly bright for a short time before flaming out never to be reused.
Gold's flame out could follow a spectacular lift-off ignited by the confluence of 5 factors. Sinclair sees the dollar going into freefall and precipitating the revival of the "Gold Cover Clause", originally mothballed by Nixon. The cover clause basically stipulates a percentage of gold backing the dollar and is seen as the only hope to prevent an outright dollar implosion with catastrophic economic, political and social consequences.
"If gold goes over $529 without the gold cover clause [being invoked], then sell because it will get below $200 an ounce!" boomed Sinclair. And with that he left the stage to the most rapturous applause of the day.
A rather more sober message than the unalloyed exuberance of the thousands-of-dollars-an-ounce crowd.
What the meek stand to inherit
James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer also attracted a large following. Grant, soft spoken and a master of that American peccadillo, the euphemism (collateral damage, stature deprived, IQ challenged…), made a good G.K. Chesterton or C.S. Lewis. The cerebral style is no less effective at winning converts.
A battle between inflation and deflation rages behind Grant's Narnian spreadsheets. Both evil, to be sure, but the former is vastly more favourable to gold which emerges as a one-dimensional Aslan. Taking his cue from history, Grant said deflation was only likely when "credit creation was stymied." He doesn't see that at all, just an "overinvestment of faith in the dollar, yen and euro" that will be rewarded by "a concerted effort to depreciate currencies through rampant credit creation." Heretics have been burned for less, but Grant seems indifferent to immolation: "When it's over, the Fed will look like the Bank of Japan."
He was especially uncomplimentary of Maestro, aka Greenspan – "a self-exculpating revisionist"; "he's been found out as a federal employee, not a miracle worker"; "he sounded more like a stock broker" (now that is a sin) and "the public sector's Jack Welch" were just some of the reproofs.
Indeed, Maestro is being single-handedly fingered for the tech stock cult, now in its death throes, but which spawned such excess that the funeral pyre of malinvestment will burn long and hot. Judgement is at hand in the form a potential 30% fall in the Dow back to "fair value", thinks Grant.
Grant didn't put any store in the gold conspiracy, simply because the metal is more powerful than any government and any monetary authority; witness the failed London Gold Pool of the 1960s. "All monetary systems come and go; this one doesn't even have a name… One day Alan Greenspan will fix the wrong Federal Funds rate... the world's faith in managed currencies is just amazing."
Get the message
David Tice, of Prudent Bear Fund fame, had an identical message to Grant, but he used some flashy props to drive the points home.
Again, it is all about excessive credit and Greenspan's folly. "You cannot burst the biggest bubble in history with mild results… what-the-hell debt is financing the spending."
Tice warns that unbelievers will be happily seduced by bear market rallies, but the faithful remnant will be holding gold, knowing this is the famed secular bear market; a rapture of sorts for gold bugs. "The magnitude of the bust will be proportional to the excess of the boom," Tice thundered to an enthralled audience, reminding them of the decadence (he actually said, in Grantesque fashion, "sociological defects") of corrupt CEOs and scummy bankers.
"The Fed has no bullets left," he said, rolling out a series of charts with peaks soaring higher than hedonistic 1929 and leaving you with no doubt that the valley that awaits will need more than one Psalm. And with that, many think the devil has been unmasked. And the fellow appears to be a vertically challenged, age enhanced Objectivist.
A cautionary tale
An angel appears to John and tells him that he has 10 minutes to get his life in order because he's about to die. "Okay, I've got 2 suitcases full of Krugerrands in the basement, let me collect them and we can go," John says, unfazed.
"No. I can't allow that," says the angel.
"Please, I worked my whole life for them. I can't leave them now."
"Alright, but I'm not carrying anything."
Accompanied by the angel, John arrives at the pearly gates, overburdened suitcases in hand. St Peter comes out to greet him, but steps short at the sight of the suitcases. "You don't need an overnight bag where you're going," he chortles.
"No, no," fusses John, "look here." With that he snaps open the case, proudly revealing towers of mint Krugers.
"Pavement! You brought pavement to Heaven?" St Peter asks incredulously.
Comment on this story >
The glory of gold (Tim Wood)
. . right stuff (joel casey)
. . Thanx Tim...A spot of sunshine on an otherwise dreary day...wish I could'a been there (Jack Fortin)
. . Article: The Glory of Gold (James A. Termini)
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